Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Figure 1.1 Area of responsibility of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center. Figure 3.1 Monthly mean streamline at 850 hPa (lines with arrows) and areas of less than 230 w/m2 of OLR (shaded) in September 2011. The tracks of the seven named TCs formed in September are superimposed onto the figure. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Figure 1.1 Area of responsibility of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center
Figure 3.1 Monthly mean streamline at 850 hPa (lines with arrows) and areas of less than 230 w/m2 of OLR (shaded) in September 2011. The tracks of the seven named TCs formed in September are superimposed onto the figure.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
number
month
Monthly formation of TCs
2011
Average (1981-2010)
Figure 3.2 Monthly formations of TCs in 2011 compared to the 30-year average (1981-2010)
Figure 3.3 Tracks of the 21 named TCs in 2011. TC tracks for the period of TS or higher are shown.
Figure 3.4 Genesis points of the 21 TCs generated in 2011 (dots) and frequency distribution of genesis points for 1951 - 2010 (lines)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Error (km)
120-hour
96-hour
72-hour
48-hour
24-hour
Figure 4.1 Annual means of position errors of 24-, 48-, 72-, 96- and 120-hour operational track forecasts
Figure 4.2.1 Histogram of position errors for 24-hour operational track forecasts in 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
450- 500
400- 450
350- 400
300- 350
250- 300
200- 250
150- 200
100- 150
50- 100
0- 50
Error (km)
Number of Cases
Figure 4.2.2 Histogram of position errors for 48-hour operational track forecasts in 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
950-1000
850- 900
750- 800
650- 700
550- 600
450- 500
350- 400
250- 300
150- 200
50- 100
Error (km)
Number of Cases
Figure 4.2.3 Histogram of position errors for 72-hour operational track forecasts in 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50
1150-1200
1050-1100
950-1000
850- 900
750- 800
650- 700
550- 600
450- 500
350- 400
250- 300
150- 200
50- 100
Error (km)
Number of Cases
Figure 4.2.4 Histogram of position errors for 96-hour operational track forecasts in 2011
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
1500-1550
1400-1450
1300-1350
1200-1250
1100-1150
1000-1050
900- 950
800- 850
700- 750
600- 650
500- 550
400- 450
300- 350
200- 250
100- 150
0- 50
Error (km)
Number of Cases
Figure 4.2.5 Histogram of position errors for 120-hour operational track forecasts in 2011
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
1500-1550
1400-1450
1300-1350
1200-1250
1100-1150
1000-1050
900- 950
800- 850
700- 750
600- 650
500- 550
400- 450
300- 350
200- 250
100- 150
0- 50
Error (km)
Number of Cases
Figure 4.2.6 Histogram of position errors for 24-, 48-, 72-, 96-, 120-hour operational track forecasts in 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
1150-1200
1100-1150
1050-1100
1000-1050
950-1000
900- 950
850- 900
800- 850
750- 800
700- 750
650- 700
600- 650
550- 600
500- 550
450- 500
400- 450
350- 400
300- 350
250- 300
200- 250
150- 200
100- 150
50- 100
0- 50
Number of Cases
Errors (km)
er24er48er72er96er120
Figure 4.3.1 Histogram of central pressure errors for 24-hour forecasts in 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
42.5 - 47.5
37.5 - 42.5
32.5 - 37.5
27.5 - 32.5
22.5 - 27.5
17.5 - 22.5
12.5 - 17.5
7.5 - 12.5
2.5 - 7.5
-2.5 - 2.5
-7.5 - -2.5
-12.5 - -7.5
-17.5 - -12.5
-22.5 - -17.5
-27.5 - -22.5
-32.5 - -27.5
-37.5 - -32.5
-42.5 - -37.5
-47.5 - -42.5
Number of Cases
Error (hPa)
Figure 4.3.2 Histogram of central pressure errors for 48-hour forecasts in 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
52.5 - 57.547.5 - 52.542.5 - 47.537.5 - 42.532.5 - 37.527.5 - 32.522.5 - 27.517.5 - 22.512.5 - 17.5
7.5 - 12.52.5 - 7.5
-2.5 - 2.5-7.5 - -2.5
-12.5 - -7.5-17.5 - -12.5-22.5 - -17.5-27.5 - -22.5-32.5 - -27.5-37.5 - -32.5-42.5 - -37.5-47.5 - -42.5-52.5 - -47.5-57.5 - -52.5-62.5 - -57.5
Number of Cases
Error (hPa)
Figure 4.3.3 Histogram of central pressure errors for 72-hour forecasts in 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50
57.5 - 62.552.5 - 57.547.5 - 52.542.5 - 47.537.5 - 42.532.5 - 37.527.5 - 32.522.5 - 27.517.5 - 22.512.5 - 17.5
7.5 - 12.52.5 - 7.5
-2.5 - 2.5-7.5 - -2.5
-12.5 - -7.5-17.5 - -12.5-22.5 - -17.5-27.5 - -22.5-32.5 - -27.5-37.5 - -32.5-42.5 - -37.5-47.5 - -42.5-52.5 - -47.5-57.5 - -52.5-62.5 - -57.5-67.5 - -62.5
Number of Cases
Error (hPa)
Figure 4.3.4 Histogram of central pressure errors for 24-, 48-, 72-hour forecasts in 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
52.5 - 57.5
47.5 - 52.5
42.5 - 47.5
37.5 - 42.5
32.5 - 37.5
27.5 - 32.5
22.5 - 27.5
17.5 - 22.5
12.5 - 17.5
7.5 - 12.5
2.5 - 7.5
-2.5 - 2.5
-7.5 - -2.5
-12.5 - -7.5
-17.5 - -12.5
-22.5 - -17.5
-27.5 - -22.5
-32.5 - -27.5
-37.5 - -32.5
-42.5 - -37.5
-47.5 - -42.5
-52.5 - -47.5
-57.5 - -52.5
-62.5 - -57.5
-67.5 - -62.5
Number of Cases
Errors (hPa)
er24er48er72
Figure 4.3.5 Histogram of maximum wind speed errors for 24-hour forecasts in 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
18.75 - 21.2516.25 - 18.7513.75 - 16.2511.25 - 13.758.75 - 11.25
6.25 - 8.753.75 - 6.251.25 - 3.75
-1.25 - 1.25-3.75 - -1.25-6.25 - -3.75-8.75 - -6.25
-11.25 - -8.75-13.75 - -11.25-16.25 - -13.75-18.75 - -16.25-21.25 - -18.75
Number of Cases
Error (m/s)
Figure 4.3.6 Histogram of maximum wind speed errors for 48-hour forecasts in 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
23.75 - 26.2521.25 - 23.7518.75 - 21.2516.25 - 18.7513.75 - 16.2511.25 - 13.75
8.75 - 11.256.25 - 8.753.75 - 6.251.25 - 3.75
-1.25 - 1.25-3.75 - -1.25-6.25 - -3.75-8.75 - -6.25
-11.25 - -8.75-13.75 - -11.25-16.25 - -13.75-18.75 - -16.25-21.25 - -18.75-23.75 - -21.25-26.25 - -23.75
Number of Cases
Error (m/s)
Figure 4.3.7 Histogram of maximum wind speed errors for 72-hour forecasts in 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
23.75 - 26.2521.25 - 23.7518.75 - 21.2516.25 - 18.7513.75 - 16.2511.25 - 13.75
8.75 - 11.256.25 - 8.753.75 - 6.251.25 - 3.75
-1.25 - 1.25-3.75 - -1.25-6.25 - -3.75-8.75 - -6.25
-11.25 - -8.75-13.75 - -11.25-16.25 - -13.75-18.75 - -16.25-21.25 - -18.75-23.75 - -21.25-26.25 - -23.75
Number of Cases
Error (m/s)
Figure 4.3.8 Histogram of maximum wind speed errors for 24-, 48-, 72-hour forecasts in 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
23.75 - 26.25
21.25 - 23.75
18.75 - 21.25
16.25 - 18.75
13.75 - 16.25
11.25 - 13.75
8.75 - 11.25
6.25 - 8.75
3.75 - 6.25
1.25 - 3.75
-1.25 - 1.25
-3.75 - -1.25
-6.25 - -3.75
-8.75 - -6.25
-11.25 - -8.75
-13.75 - -11.25
-16.25 - -13.75
-18.75 - -16.25
-21.25 - -18.75
-23.75 - -21.25
-26.25 - -23.75
Number of Cases
Errors (m/s)
er24er48er72
Figure 4.4 GSM annual mean position errors from 1997 to 2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Error (km)
78-hour
54-hour
30-hour
Figure 4.5.1 Error distribution of GSM position predictions of the tropical cycolones in 2011
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
0 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 150
150 - 200
200 - 250
250 - 300
300 - 350
350 - 400
400 - 450
450 - 500
500 - 550
550 - 600
600 - 650
650 - 700
700 - 750
750 - 800
800 - 850
850 - 900
900 - 950
950 -1000
1000 -
Number of Cases
Error (km)
30-hour GSM Predictionsfor Center Position
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 150
150 - 200
200 - 250
250 - 300
300 - 350
350 - 400
400 - 450
450 - 500
500 - 550
550 - 600
600 - 650
650 - 700
700 - 750
750 - 800
800 - 850
850 - 900
900 - 950
950 -1000
1000 -
Number of Cases
Error (km)
54-hour GSM Predictions for Center Position
0 10 20 30 40 50
0 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 150
150 - 200
200 - 250
250 - 300
300 - 350
350 - 400
400 - 450
450 - 500
500 - 550
550 - 600
600 - 650
650 - 700
700 - 750
750 - 800
800 - 850
850 - 900
900 - 950
950 -1000
1000 -
Number of Cases
Error (km)
78-hour GSM Predictions for Center Position
Figure 4.5.2 Error distribution of GSM 30-hour intensity predictions of the tropical cyclones in 2011
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
+5
+10
+15
+20
+25
+30
+35
+40
Number of Cases
Error (hPa)
30-hour GSM Predictions for Central Pressure
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
-17.5
-15.0
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0
+2.5
+5.0
+7.5
+10.0
+12.5
+15.0
+17.5
Number of Cases
Error (m/s)
30-hour GSM Predictionsfor Maximum Sustained Wind
Figure 4.5.3 Error distribution of GSM 54-hour intensity predictions of the tropical cyclones in 2011
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
+5
+10
+15
+20
+25
+30
+35
+40
Number of Cases
Error (hPa)
54-hour GSM Predictions for Central Pressure
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
-17.5
-15.0
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0
+2.5
+5.0
+7.5
+10.0
+12.5
+15.0
+17.5
Number of Cases
Error (m/s)
54-hour GSM Predictionsfor Maximum Sustained Wind
Figure 4.5.4 Error distribution of GSM 78-hour intensity predictions of the tropical cyclones in 2011
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
+5
+10
+15
+20
+25
+30
+35
+40
Number of Cases
Error (hPa)
78-hour GSM Predictions for Central Pressure
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
-17.5
-15.0
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0
+2.5
+5.0
+7.5
+10.0
+12.5
+15.0
+17.5
Number of Cases
Error (m/s)
78-hour GSM Predictionsfor Maximum Sustained Wind
