Figure 12.1 American house prices; 12-month moving average, 1987 – 2012

USA: median price of new homes and ratio median price / median income

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012year

med

ian

pric

e

3

4

5

6

ratio

median house price (left scale)

median house price divided by median income level (right scale)

Source: calculations based on data from US Census Bureau; median new house price in US dollars (not inflation adjusted, 12-month moving average); monthly median income constructed from annual data; note that the right-hand scale starts at three rather than zero.

Figure 12.2 Stock market index; monthly data, 1987 – August 2012

Dow Jones EURO STOXX broad index

0

1

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

Mar

ch 2

000

Mar

ch 2

003

June

200

7

Mar

ch 2

009

Internet bubble60% decline

Great Recession57% decline

Source: OECD Dow Jones EURO STOXX broad index, monthly data

Figure 12.3 Maximum loans by Federal Reserve to selected banks ($ bn), 2008-2009

0 20 40 60 80 100Morgan Stanley

Citigroup

Bank of America

Royal Bank of Scotland

State Street Corp

UBS

Goldman Sachs

JP Morgan Chase

Deutsche Bank

Barclays

0 20 40 60 80 100Morgan Stanley

Citigroup

Bank of America

Royal Bank of Scotland

State Street Corp

UBS

Goldman Sachs

JP Morgan Chase

Deutsche Bank

Barclays

Source: van Marrewijk (2012); indicated are the largest loans to individual banks in billion US $; these occur at different dates, but all are either in 2008 or in 2009.

Figure 12.4 Great Recession: real world trade flows (index), 1970 – July 2012

Real world trade flows; constant 2000 US dollar, index (2000 = 100)

0

40

80

120

160

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

annual data

monthly data

21 3 4

Great Recession

2.8% decline

0.3% decline

6.8% decline

20.1% decline

Source: calculations based on World Development Indicators online (world exports of goods and services in constant 2000 US dollar; 1970-1991, annual data) and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (volume of world merchandise exports; Jan 1991 – July 2012, monthly data); index (2000=100).

Figure 12.5 Trade volumes and the Great Recession; selected areas, 2004 – July 2012

Source: calculations based on CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis data (volume of exports and imports); see the main text for details; pre-2009 peaks indicated (square, circle, triangle).

a. Import volume advanced economies 5-month moving av. (ind indices; pre-2009 peak=100)

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2007

-2

USA

Euro area

2008

-3

2008

-10

Japan

b. Import volume emerging markets 5-month moving av. (ind indices; pre-2009 peak=100)

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Asia

Africa + Middle East

Latin America

Central + East Europe

2008

-3

2008

-8

Figure 12.5 Trade volumes and the Great Recession; selected areas, 2004 – July 2012

Source: calculations based on CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis data (volume of exports and imports); see the main text for details; pre-2009 peaks indicated (square, circle, triangle).

c. Export volume advanced economies 5-month moving av. (ind indices; pre-2009 peak=100)

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

USA

Euro area

2008

-3

2008

-6

Japan

d. Export volume emerging markets 5-month moving av. (ind indices; pre-2009 peak=100)

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Asia

Africa + Middle East

Latin America

Central + East Europe

2008

-2

2008

-9

Figure 12.6 Surprise! OECD’s changing world trade growth projections for 2009

OECD world trade growth projections for 2009 (% increase)

8.1 8.2 8.2 8.26.6 6.9 7.0 7.1

1.3 1.9 2.53.8

-9.2

-3.9

1.1

-32.1-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

WEO 2007/2

WEO 2008/1

WEO 2008/2

WEO 2009/1

Source: van Marrewijk (2012).

Figure 12.7 Industrial production; monthly growth rates, 2007 – July 2012

a. Industrial production advanced economies; growth rate, monthly data

31.95

-34.27

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Japan

USA

Euro area

earthquake and tsunami

April 2008

Source: calculations based on CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis data; growth rate of industrial production in this month relative to the same month one year ago (%).

Figure 12.7 Industrial production; monthly growth rates, 2007 – July 2012

Source: calculations based on CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis data; growth rate of industrial production in this month relative to the same month one year ago (%).

b. Industrial production emerging markets; growth rate, monthly data

21.74

-17.12-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Asia

C&E Europe

Africa & ME

Latin America

Figure 12.8 GDP per capita (PPP); countries with growth and decline (%), 2000-2011

GDP per capita PPP; countries with growth and decline (%), 2000-2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

countries with decline

countries with growth

Source: author’s calculations based on data from World Development Indicators online; sample of 171 countries; GDP per capita PPP in constant 2005 international $; countries with growth have per capita income this year larger than previous year

Figure 12.9 USA retail and manufacturing sales; index (1992=100), 1992 – Aug 2012

USA retail and manufacturing sales; index, 1992 = 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

retail sales

manufacturing sales

Source: based on data from US Census Bureau; seasonally adjusted sales, monthly ($ mn)

Figure 12.10 USA inventory/sales ratio; index (period average = 100), 2002 – Jul 2012

USA inventories / sales ratio; index relative to period average, monthly data

117.39

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

period average

inventories / sales ratio index

January 2009

Source: based on data from US Census Bureau; seasonally adjusted inventory/sales ratio for manufacturing and trade, monthly data; index relative to period average

Figure 12.11 Government net lending / borrowing (% of GDP), 2012-2017

General government net lending / borrowing (% of GDP)

-6.4

-10.4

-13.0

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Euro area

USA

Japan

realization prediction

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database

Figure 12.12 Expected general government gross debt (% of GDP), 2012

General government gross debt (% of GDP), 2012

22.0

23.2

24.0

40.1

65.1

67.6

70.1

73.9

78.9

79.0

84.7

88.4

89.0

90.0

99.1

106.6

123.4

153.2

235.8

0 50 100 150 200 250

China

Indonesia

Australia

Philippines

Brazil

India

Netherlands

Austria

Germany

Spain

Canada

UK

France

Euro area

Belgium

USA

Italy

Greece

Japan

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database

Figure 12.13 Emerging markets; 20 largest foreign exchange reserves, mid 2011 ($bn)

Emerging markets; 20 largest foreign exchange reserves, mid 2011 (US $ bn)

46

49

54

63

78

94

101

119

129

134

179

249

279

288

311

334

484

508

3198

401

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Peru

Argentina

Hungary

Philippines

Israel

Turkey

Poland

Indonesia

Mexico

Malaysia

Thailand

Singapore

Hong Kong

India

S Korea

Brazil

Taiwan

Russia

Saudi Arabia

China

Source: based on The Economist (2011b).

Figure 12.14 Total factor productivity index; 1989 = 100, 1989-2011

Total Factor Productivity; index 1989 = 100, 1989-2011

123

10097

90

87

111

124

80

100

120

1989 1995 2001 2007 2013year

TF

P in

dex

Finland

Germany

Netherlands

France

Greece

SpainItaly

Source: author’s calculations based on Conference Board Total Economy Database

Figure 12.15 Sovereign ratings in Europe since 2005; long-term foreign currency

Sovereign ratings in Europe since 2005; long-term foreign currency

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Austria, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK

Ireland

Portugal

Spain

Greece

Italy

Source: based on data from Fitch Ratings; ratings transformed to a scale from 0 (D) to 24 (AAA), at steps of one in the 24 actual ratings given by Fitch (two more ratings than given in Table 12.4).

Figure 12.16 Sovereign ratings since 1997; long-term foreign currency

Sovereign ratings since 1997; long-term foreign currency, selected countries

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Austria, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK, USA

Japan

Nigeria

Russia

China

India

Brazil

Source: based on data from Fitch Ratings; ratings transformed to a scale from 0 (D) to 24 (AAA), at steps of one in the 24 actual ratings given by Fitch (two more ratings than given in Table 12.4).