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Fin 4201/8001 1
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Behavioral Finance
Fin 4201/8001 2
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Overconfidence
Fin 4201/8001 3
Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick Disposition effect - Reference points
Pride & Regret = Pain & Pleasure
Fin 4201/8001 4
House Money Cognitive dissonance
Consider the past
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Mental Accounting
Fin 4201/8001 6
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Forming Portfolios
Fin 4201/8001 7
Representativeness and Familiarity
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Social Interaction
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Emotion and Decision
Fin 4201/8001 10
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Self Control and Decisions
Fin 4201/8001 11
Prospect Theory Value Function
Normal Distribution
A large enough sample drawn from a normal distribution looks like a bell-shaped curve.
A large enough sample drawn from a normal distribution looks like a bell-shaped curve.
Probability
Return onlarge company commonstocks
99.74%
– 3 – 49.3%
– 2 – 28.8%
– 1 – 8.3%
Mean12.2%
+ 1 32.7%
+ 2 53.2%
+ 3 73.7%
The probability that a yearly return will fall within ± 1 standard deviation (± 20.5%) of the mean is approximately 68%.
68.26%
95.44%