Upload
atyant-capital
View
433
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Why George Soros’ and John Paulson’s
#1 Position is Gold and Gold Stocks
April 19, 2010
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary 2
Special Report
This material is for informational purposes only and is being
furnished on a confidential basis to a limited number of prospective
investors only.
This presentation is not an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of an offer
to buy any security of any fund managed or sponsored by Atyant
Capital Partners LLC or its affiliates or any other investment product.
Offers to sell or solicitations to invest in any Fund shall be made only
by means of a confidential private placement memorandum and in
accordance with applicable securities laws. Investors should review
the confidential private placement memorandum (including, but not
limited to, the information therein as to investment strategy, conflicts
and risks) prior to making a decision on investment.
This material has been prepared from original sources and data
believed to be reliable. No representations are made as to the
accuracy or completeness thereof. An investment in a Fund involves
a high degree of risk and is suitable only for sophisticated investors.
Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future
performance.
Disclaimer
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary 3
Special Report
Contents
๏ About Us
๏ The Thesis
๏ Where Did All the Money Go?
๏ The Issue at Hand
๏ So What?
๏ Proof is in the Pudding
๏ Game Plan
๏ Contact Us
๏ Cheat Sheet
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Vedant ‘VK’ Mimani, Managing Director, Atyant Capital• Co-founder of Atyant Capital and lead portfolio manager for the Global Opportunities Fund.
• Fifteen years of managing assets, with a focus on macroeconomic opportunities that can be magnified
through trading strategies.
• Former head of Vedant Mimani Trading. Over ten-year career grew capital base to 83 times initial
value.
• Graduate of Yale University with a degree in Economics.
• Champion of a new sport, El Punto Grande, a fast-paced combination of kickball, dodge ball, and
cricket.
• Connect with VK on LinkedIn and Facebook
4
About Us
The Atyant Team
Pratik Sharma, Managing Director, Atyant Capital • Co-founder of Atyant Capital and head of distribution and operations.
• Previously held key roles in the financial services practices at Deloitte Consulting and Meritage
Technologies. Specialized in optimizing operations and governance practices for Fortune 500
companies to protect and enhance shareholder value.
• Graduate of Boston University with a degree in Biomedical Engineering.
• Active in the community via service activities focused on healthcare for the underserved.
• Connect with Pratik on LinkedIn and Facebook
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Credit Mania Credit Contraction
Great credit manias have ALWAYS
led to great contractions:
1720, 1772, 1825, 1873, 1929, 2007
Qualities of a Credit Mania:
• Money and credit plentiful
• Inflation and commodity prices fall
• Consumer confidence high
• Stock and real estate in bull market
• Gold bullion and gold equities in bear market
• Financial fraud prevalent
• Debt reaches high levels
5
The Thesis
Cartoonist: David Brown for Institutional Advisors
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
First Comes Credit Expansion…
6
• Financial establishment invents
ways to satisfy investors’ appetite
for yields (best exemplified by
subprime/RMBS)
• Soaring prices for tangibles and
financial assets fosters
aggressive employment of
leverage
• Easy credit leads to diseased
credit
The Thesis
Current Credit Mania
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
…Then Comes Credit Contraction
7
Stress in real estate mortgages, municipals’
finances and sovereign debt are not
independent and isolated events
All part and parcel of the same
phenomenon
Unwinding of the
excessive use of credit
Cartoonist: David Brown for Institutional Advisors
“As far as we can project, barring some unexpected event, our
mortgage-backed securities fund should continue to yield about 35%
per annum forever.”
The Thesis
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Qualities of a Credit Contraction
• Approximately 20 years in duration
based on previous contractions
• Money scarce
• Credit tight, interest rates rise
• Financial and economic dislocation
• International monetary system stressed
• Gold bullion and gold equities rise
• Mal-investments liquidated
8
Cartoonist: Hank Blaustein for Grant‟s Interest Rate Observer
Where Did All the Money Go?
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Credit Default Swaps
Collateralized Debt Obligations
Mortgage Backed Securities
Small Business
Real Estate
Diamonds and Gemstones
OTC Stocks
Commodities
MUNI Bonds
Corporate Bonds
Listed Stocks
Government Bonds
Treasury Bills
Paper Money
Gold
Best of Times, Worst of Times
John Exter’s Inverse Pyramid of Liquidity9
Less
Liquid
More
Liquid
• In a credit contraction, liquidity
becomes paramount
• For orthodox investments:
nowhere to run, nowhere to hide
• „New Normal‟: prepare for a 4%
return world
Our View
Great Change =
Great Opportunity
Where Did All the Money Go?
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Credit Contraction Has Already Started
10
• Astute market observers recognize private credit has started contracting
Where Did All the Money Go?
Credit Contraction Already Started
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Credit Contraction Has Already Started
11
• US Treasury/Federal Reserve replaced private credit with sovereign credit
• Increased national debt by a significant amount
• Added to the leverage
US Treasury/Federal Reserve replaced
private credit with sovereign credit
Where Did All the Money Go?
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
What’s the Problem? It’s the Debt Stupid!
• Real debt cannot be paid with combination of growth and taxes.
• Going forward elections and policies will matter less as math takes over.
12
Cartoonist: unknown
The Issue at Hand
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Do We Know How It Will Play Out?
• What we DO know:
• Can authorities continue on current path
indefinitely? NO
• Bond market will restrict ability to
monetize the debt
• What we DON’T know:
How will the Federal Reserve
and US Treasury react when
bond vigilantes return?
13
Cartoonist: Hank Blaustein for Grant‟s Interest Rate Observer
The Issue at Hand
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Possible Outcomes
• Continued debt monetization:
hyperinflation
• Default and restructure: deflation
• Revalue currency: devaluation
14
No single outcome is baked in the
cake. It ALL depends on how the US
Treasury and Federal Reserve react
to bond market’s demand for higher
rates
The Issue at Hand
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Many Unknowns; What is Known?
In every single prior credit contraction, the
real price of gold, as measured against
ALL asset classes, increases.
The “Financial Crisis of 2008” followed
historical precedent.
15
So What?
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Gold vs. Commodities
16
Gold Bull Market
Intermediate term
correction
Is this the turn and gold now
ready to outperform all asset
classes?
Proof is in the Pudding
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Gold vs. Stocks
17
Gold Bull Market
Intermediate term
correction
Is this the turn and gold now
ready to outperform all asset
classes?
Proof is in the Pudding
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Gold vs. High Yield Corporate Bonds
18
Gold Bull Market
Intermediate term
correction
Is this the turn and gold now
ready to outperform all asset
classes?
Proof is in the Pudding
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Gold vs. Municipal Bonds
19
Gold Bull Market
Intermediate term
correction
Is this the turn and gold now
ready to outperform all asset
classes?
Proof is in the Pudding
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Gold vs. Real Estate
20
Gold Bull Market
Intermediate term
correction
Is this the turn and gold now
ready to outperform all asset
classes?
Proof is in the Pudding
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Gold vs. Commodities
Gold vs. Stocks
Gold vs. High Yield Corporate Bonds
Gold vs. Municipal Bonds
Gold vs. Real Estate
Credit Crisis=Real Price of Gold Increases
21
The “Financial Crisis of 2008” followed historical precedent.
✓
✓✓✓
Proof is in the Pudding
✓
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Valuing Gold
• Normal: Fair Value of Gold = 15-20% of True Money Supply = $950-$1250/oz
• If Market Considers US Government Bankrupt: Fair Value of Gold = 100% of
True Money Supply = $6282 per oz
• True Money Supply is a dynamic figure and could increase by augmenting
the monetary base or decrease via large scale defaults and writedowns
22
Game Plan
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Gold is Good, Gold Miners are BetterMiners are better because in a credit
contraction, the real price of gold increases.
Significance of this:
• Operating costs fall, relative to gold, thereby driving
increased earnings, while earnings for most sectors remain
under pressure from falling prices
• Rise in real price increases valuation of deposits and makes
marginal projects economically viable
• Relative relationship cannot be altered by government
policy
Miners are making money when
few others are
23
Game Plan
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Focus on Gold Mining SectorRight now we like:
• Majors – harder to find financing to build a mine than to find a geological
anomaly
• Marginal producers – margin expansion will result in exponential increase
to the bottom line
• Proven winners working on projects - exceptional results come from
exceptional people
• Project developers that restructured their businesses in 2009 to focus on
gold – shows us management understands the situation
24
Game Plan
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
Thank You
25
Contact Us
Pratik Sharma, Managing Director
Phone: +561.953.8939x101
Fax: +561.953.8940
E-Mail: [email protected]
7040 W. Palmetto Park Road, Suite 4-821
Boca Raton, FL 33433
www.atyantcapital.com
© Atyant Capital, 2010. Confidential & Proprietary
VK’s Top 10.5 Rules for PM Complex1. Precious metal stocks are the most volatile asset class in the world because there is a community that thinks gold
is functionally useless and a relic (governments and bankers) and a community that thinks only gold is money and money is gold (the gold bugs and 3 billion Asian peasants). Both are right.
2. The key to trading gold stocks is the same as successful risk/reward management: knowing the 60/40 end of a winning proposition, money management and knowing thyself.
3. Regular Technical Analysis will not work in the gold stocks market. In order to survive the market, you must learn which strength to sell and which weakness to buy.
4. The precious metals complex goes up a set of stairs and comes down an elevator.
5. One of the beauties of the gold market is you do not have to wait long to find out if you are trading the market right or wrong.
6. Gold stocks always lead the metal. Repeat gold stocks always lead the metal.
7. The gold market has lots of tells. Learn to read the tape and trade around the big picture forecasts.
8. The gold market is a manipulated market. It has been since the beginning of governments. Accept this fact and learn how to trade the market instead of complaining about it.
9. Silver is more manic depressive than gold.
10. When the gold conferences start filling up with suits and beautiful women start selling.
10.5 The precious metals complex is going a lot higher. What we have seen thus far was Phase I – the Insider’s move. The upcoming Phase 2 will be the Professional Money move and Phase 3 will be the Retail move. Will you be able to hang on for the ride? The only way is to trade around the complex’s vicious volatility.
26
Cheat Sheet