Upload
buithien
View
216
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Financial Presentation
6 May 2015
C. Ashley Heppenstall, President & CEOMike Nicholson, CFO
First Quarter 2015
WF12058 6 May 15
WF1
2061
p
01 0
5.15
Production (boepd)
Average Brent oil price (USD/boe)
Cost of operations (USD/boe)
Net result (MUSD)
EBITDA (MUSD)
Operating cash flow (MUSD)
First Quarter2015
86.0
155.7
-230.9
25,800
53.9
9.2
First Quarter 2015Financial Highlights
2
WF1
2061
p
03 0
5.15
First Quarter 2015Financial Results
50
100
-100
-200
-300
-100
-200
-300
0
150
200
250
300
50
100
0
150
200
250
300
3.2
-230.9
256.0
155.7
86.0
177.8
First Quarter 2014
Net ResultFirst Quarter
2015First Quarter
2014First Quarter
2015First Quarter
2014First Quarter
2015
Mill
ion
US
D
Operating Cash Flow EBITDA
3
WF1
2061
p
02 0
5.15
First Quarter 2015Financial Results
0 0
40
-40
80
-80
120
-120
160
-160
-200
-240
40
-40
80
-80
120
-120
160
-160
-200
-240
Mill
ion
US
D
Millio
n U
SD
RevenueMUSD 121.325,800 boepdUSD 52.7/boe
Operating CostsMUSD 25.2Cost of Operations USD 9.2/boe
DepletionMUSD 43.1
Cash MarginMUSD 96.1
Gross ProfitMUSD 7.6
ExplorationMUSD 45.4
G&AMUSD 11.3
FinancialMUSD 225.2
Net ResultMUSD -230.9
TaxMUSD 2.0Effective rate 1%
4
WF1
2061
p
06 0
5.15
First Quarter 2015Netback (USD/boe)
Revenue
Cost of operations - Base - ProjectsTariff & transportationProduction taxesInventory movementsOther
Cash Margin
Cash taxes
Operating Cash Flow
General and administration costs (1)
EBITDA
Average Brent oil price USD/boe
52.2
-8.7-0.5-1.1-0.31.0
-1.3
41.3
25.7
67.0
-4.3
37.0
53.9
First Quarter2015
(1) Adjusted for depreciation
5
WF1
2061
p
04 0
5.15
Forecast 2015Cost of Operations
10
9
8
7
6
5
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
12
11
USD/boe USD/boe
Q1 2015actual
Q2 2015forecast
Q3 2015forecast
Q4 2015forecast
Base Forecast 2015 USD 7.65/boe(CMD Guidance USD 8.40/boe)
Forecast 2015Including Projects
USD 8.45/boe(CMD Guidance USD 9.35/boe)
Bertam onstreamAlvheim workover Q2/Q3
Edvard Grieg onstream
Including ProjectsBase
6
WF1
2061
p
07 0
5.15
Norway
Others
Exploration Costs
First 3 Months2015
after TaxMUSD
9.9
0.4
First 3 Months2015MUSD
44.9
0.5
10.345.4
(PL338C Gemini, PL674BS Zulu)
First Quarter 2015Exploration Costs
7
WF1
2061
p
05 0
5.15
First Quarter 2015G & A / Financial Items
General & administration
Long Term Incentive Plan
Net Financial Items
General & Administration Expenses
Foreign exchange loss(1)
(1) Includes MUSD 41.0 loss on settled currency hedges(2) An additional amount of interest expense of MUSD 9.8 has been capitalised
Interest expense(2)
10.7
0.6
204.0
11.8
3.0
2.9
3.5
11.3
225.2
First Quarter 2015MUSD
Loan commitment fees
Amortisation of loan fees
Other
8
WF1
2061
p
10 0
5.15
First Quarter 2015Tax
-25.7
26.6
0.9
USD/boe
First Quarter2015
Current tax credit
Deferred tax charge
9
WF1
2061
p
08 0
5.15
First Quarter 2015Liquidity MUSD
Debt Outstanding 3,115
Cash Balances
Full access to USD 4 billion under low oil price sensitivity
Margin on Loan Facility: 2.75%
Conservative leverage on Johan Sverdrup
52
Net Debt Position 3,063
at 31 March 2015
10
WF1
2061
p
19 0
5.15
First Quarter 2015Liquidity
Norwegian exploration refund facility signed
NOK 4.5 billion over two years
10 international banks
2 x oversubscribed
Low cost funding : NIBOR + 130bps
Secures additional liquidity
11
WF1
2061
p
09 0
5.15
First Quarter 2015Debt Position
0
2,400
2,300
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
3,000
3,100
3,200
2,900
0
2,400
2,300
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
3,000
3,100
3,200
2,900
Mill
ion
US
DM
illion
US
D
Operating Cash FlowMUSD 156
DevelopmentMUSD 326
G&A MUSD 10Financial MUSD 67
Exploration & AppraisalMUSD 83
Opening Net Debt1 Jan 2015MUSD 2,609
Closing Net Debt31 March 2015MUSD 3,063
Working CapitalMUSD 124
12
WF1
1894
p23
04.
15
Hedgesas at 31 March 2015
Apr 2013 - Mar 2016
2015
Q1 2016
Q2-Q4 2016
2017
2018
500
1,500
1,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
0.57%
0.52%
1.50%
1.50%
2.32%
3.06%
BorrowingsMUSD
Floating LIBORrate per annum
Interest rate
2016
2015 unsettled
Total
2,938.4
1,251.8
458.2
182.5
6.41
6.86
4,190.2 640.7 6.54
BUYMNOK
SELLMUSD
Average rateNOK : USD
Currency
13
WF1
1895
201
4 p
5 0
4.15
First Three Months 2015Highlights
Production Q1 2015: 25,800 boepdBrynhild (Dec14), Bøyla (Jan15) & Bertam (Apr15) commenced production
Barents Sea: Alta-1 appraisal well ongoing, Alta-2 to follow
Forecast exit 2015 production 75,000 boepdFull year 2015 forecast 41,000 – 51,000 boepd
DevelopmentsBrynhild: First oil in December 2014, drilling substantially completedBøyla: First oil in January 2015, all wells drilled and completedBertam: First oil in April 2015, drilling to continue to late 2015Edvard Grieg: Topsides construction completed, ready for offshore sail-out. First oil Q4 2015Johan Sverdrup: Phase 1 PDO submitted by partnership. Approval expected in June 2015
Appraisal
ExplorationTwo wells added to 2015 Norwegian campaign, Lorry and ZeppelinMorkel well ongoingRemaining wells for 2015: 7 Norway, 2 Malaysia – targeting 550 MMboe net unrisked
LiquiditySigning of new NOK 4.5 billion exploration refund facility
14
WF1
2051
p01
04.
15
New ProductionBrynhild, Bøyla, Bertam
Brynhild
Plateau ProductionNet Boepd(1)Field
10,800
~3,000
11,250
ReservesNet MMboe
20.5
3.4
13.8
Bøyla
Bertam
First Oil: 19 January 2015
First Oil: 5 April 2015
First Oil: 29 December 2014
New fields will add a plateau production capacity of ~25,000 boepd
Development: Subsea Tie-back to Pierce FPSO
Development: Subsea Tie-back to Alvheim FPSO2 producer, 1 injector
2 producer, 1 producer & injector, 1 injector
14 horizontal well with ESP’s
(1) Plateau from each field not achieved simultaneously
Development: Stand alone with Bertam FPSO
Brynhild
Bøyla
Bertam
25,000 boepd37.7 MMboe
15
WF1
2010
p4
04.1
5
Lundin PetroleumProduction
2009 2010 2011
2009-2014 Production(1)
2012 2013 2014
(1) Excluding discontinued operations
Guidance highGuidance lowActual production
Guidance highGuidance lowOther productionNorway production
Th
ou
san
d b
oep
d n
et
0
20
40
60
80
0
20
40
60
80
Q1 2015 production: 25,800 boepd Volund outperformed (reservoir), Brynhild underperformed (facilities, weather)
2015 production guidance: 41,000 - 51,000 boepd
Production guidance impacted by: Start-up date for Edvard Grieg Ramp-up of Brynhild, Bøyla, Bertam, Edvard Grieg
2015 Production Guidance
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42015
Bertam first oilApril 2015
Bøyla first oilJan 2015
Brynhild first oilDec 2015
E. Grieg first oil
Norway, 70%
France, 7%
Netherlands, 3%
Malaysia, 16%
Indonesia, 4%
2015 Forecast
16
WF1
1383
p1
07.1
4
Norway & MalaysiaDevelopment Projects
Brynhild (Lundin 90% operator)
Ongoing Norwegian Developments
Edvard Grieg (Lundin 50% operator)
Johan Sverdrup (Lundin 22.12%) (1)
Bøyla (Lundin 15%)
Ivar Aasen Unit (Lundin 1.385%)
Norway
MalaysiaMalaysia - Natuna Sea
"
0 KM 40
NorwayNorth Sea
United
Kingdom
Stavanger
Bøyla
Edvard Grieg
Ivar Aasen Unit
Brynhild
Johan Sverdrup
Ongoing Malaysian Development
Bertam (Lundin 75% operator)
(1) Subject to approval by Ministry of Petroleum and Energy
Kuala Lumpur
Singapore
Indonesia
Malaysia
Malaysia
Indonesia
0 100KM
Bertam
2015 Budget USD 1,280 Million
First oil achieved
First oil achieved
Dec. 2014
Jan. 2015
First oil achieved Apr. 2015
17
WF1
1585
p01
04.
15
Lundin NorwayEdvard Grieg Development
Edvard Grieg Platform
Luno South
Ivar Aasen Platform
Gas Export to SAGE
Ivar Aasen
Edvard Grieg
Oil Export to Grane
Lundin Petroleum interest: 50% (operator) OMV 20%, Wintershall 15%, Statoil 15%
2P reserves: 187 MMboe gross
Plateau production: 100,000 boepd gross
00160015
PL359PL338C
PL501
PL501B
PL674
PL265
PL546
PL625
PL544
PL410
PL167 & PL167BPL673
PL779
UK
Norway
0 KM 20
PL778
Engineering/Procurement
Construction/Assembly
Offshore Hook-up/Commissioning
Drilling
Contract Award
Load out/Seafastning & Marine Operations
Pipelaying
Norway - Southern Utsira High
Edvard Grieg Schematic
Johan Sverdrup
Lundin Petroleum Operator
Lundin Petroleum Partner
PL338
Q4Q32012
Oil & Gas Export Pipeline
Drilling
Jacket Execution
Topside Execution
Installation
Decision Gate / PDO
Q2Q1 Q4Q32013
Q2Q1 Q4Q32014
Q2Q1 Q1 Q4Q32015
Q2
First Oil
PDO Approved by Authorities
OilGasGas pipelay
Production startup Q4 2015
Drilling 15 wells from jack-up rig – commenced drilling operation
Jacket completed and installed
Topside construction completed and loaded-out
Capital costs: 25 NOK billion
Oil and gas pipelines installation completed
One appraisal well in south east of the field to be drilled in Q2 2015
Luno II
Ivar Aasen Unit
Edvard Grieg
Remaining Workload
Offshore installationOffshore hook-up andcommissioningDevelopment well drilling
18
WF1
1898
p
01 0
4.15
Development ProjectsEdvard Grieg Work Status
Topsides - LQ and Helideck en route to Stord
Edvard Grieg development drilling and topsides load-out
19
WF1
1602
p04
04.
15
(1) Subject to approval by Ministry of Petroleum and Energy
NorwayJohan Sverdrup Development
J. Sverdrup
PL502
PL501
PL265
0 5KM
$
Phase 1 PDO submitted in February 2015. Approval June 2015Tract participation agreement signed by 4 of 5 partners. The Ministerto determine final agreement by June 2015.
16/2-6
Johan Sverdrup
Working Interest (1)
Lundin Norway
Statoil
Maersk
Det norske
Petoro
Johan Sverdrup
22.1200%
40.0267%
8.1200%
11.8933%
17.8400%
Norway
Field Outline
20
WF1
1877
p08
04.
15
Riser platform
Wellhead & Drillingplatform
Johan Sverdrup Phase I Topside Layout
Contract awards Kværner Verdal for delivery of jacket for the riser platform Aker engineering & procurement management for the riser & processing platform topsides Aibel EPC contract for the drilling platform Allseas contract for the installation of three platforms using heavy-lift vessel Pioneering Spirit
Phase I Full fieldCAPEX NOK 117 BnProduction Level: 315-380,000 bopd
Gross CAPEX NOK 170-220 Bn (including Phase I)Gross Contingent Resources: 1,700-3,000 MMboePlateau Production : 550-650,000 boepd
2015 2016 2017 2018Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2Q3 Q4 Q3 Q4
PDO Submitted Phase IPDO Approval - Phase I PDO Submission - Phase II First Oil - Phase I First Oil - Phase II
2019 2020 2021Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022
NorwayJohan Sverdrup Development
21
Production ForecastFrom Ongoing Development
WF1
2010
p1
07.1
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2018 2019 2020 .......
Bøyla, 19.01.15Brynhild, 25.12.14
2016 2017
JohanSverdrup
JohanSverdrup
10-15exploration wellsper year
EdvardGrieg
EdvardGrieg
IvarAasenIvar
Aasen
boepd
33
,00
0(1
)
30
,40
0(1
)
23
,80
0(1
)
41
–5
1,0
00
Other existing contingent andprospective resources not included in production forecast
Bertam, 05.04.15
Exit Rate 2015: 75,000 boepd
(1)Excluding divested assets (Russia)
22
WF1
1796
p10
11.
14
7 exploration wells remaining
6 operated wells
Targeting ~515 MMboe
net unrisked prospective resources
2 exploration wells
Targeting ~30 MMboe
net unrisked prospective resources
2 exploration wells drilled
Gemini (PL338C) - Dry
Zulu (PL674BS) - Gas discovery, non-commercial
3 appraisal wells remaining
2 on Alta discovery, 1 on Edvard Grieg
(1) Excluding Gemini & Zulu, the remaining net unrisked resources are ~ 550 MMboe
Malaysia
Norway
Norway
UK
Barents Sea
Norwegian Sea
North Sea
2015 E&A Budget: 470 MUSD Net Targetted Resources(1) 675 MMboe
2015Exploration & Appraisal Drilling
Luno II North Zeppelin
Morkel ongoing
Lorry
Ørnen
Fosen
Greater Alvheim Area
Utsira High Area
Barents Sea Area
Neiden
Alta (2)
Edvar Grieg SE
Remaining 2015 prospectsAppraisal wells
Malaysia
Norway
Kuala Lumpur
Singapore
Indonesia
Malaysia
Malaysia
Indonesia
0 100KM
PM307 2 exploration wells
23
Norway - Barents Sea SouthOverview
WF1
1421
p12
01.
15
Barents SeaRussia
FinlandSweden
Norway
Svalbard
70°0
'0"N
0 KM 400
Norway
UnitedKingdom
Ireland Germany
Netherlands
DenmarkNorth Sea
0 KM 400
Barents SeaUnderexplored ~ 100 wells
Lundin Petroleum is a major licenceholder in the Loppa High area
5 recent oil discoveries+ 2 gas discoveries
~ 1 billion boe discoveredover last 4 years
24
WF1
1786
p05
04.
15
Norway - 2015 Appraisal ActivitiesBarents Sea - Alta / Gohta Appraisal
Loppa High
Hammerfest Basin
Tromsø Basin
Bjørnøya Bassenget
Bjørn
øyre
nna F
ault
Compl
ex
Vesle
møy H
igh
Polh
eim
Sub
-pla
tform
Rin
gvas
søy-
Lopp
a Fa
ult C
ompl
ex
Børselv
Neiden
LakselvSouth
LakselvNorth
659533
609
438490
492 609 B
SNØHVIT
Skalle
Johan Castberg
Kramsnø
SkavlDrivis
Iskrystall
Salina
Trål
NoaideBoazo
Komag
ReinLavvo
Formica
Rauto
Johan Catsberg Discoveries
PL492 (operated), 40%
Gross recoverable oil and gas resource estimate range:91–184 MMboe ( 2C: 128 MMboe)
One further appraisal under review
Gohta Discovery
Lundin Petroleum Licences
Operated Non Operated
Fields
ProspectsOil Gas
Gohta Discovery
Alta Discovery
767
805
0 KM 20
Gohta AppraisalGohta Discovery
Senilex well (1985)
GOC
OWC
Alta Discovery2015 Alta Appraisal 2
2015 Alta Appraisal 1 (ongoing)
Alta DiscoveryPL609 (Lundin 40%, operated)
Gross recoverable oil and gas resource estimate range:125–400 MMboe (2C: 224 MMboe) Two appraisal wells in 2015 - First appraisal well ongoing
25
Norway - Barents Sea SouthExploration
WF1
1421
p13
01.
15
2015 Exploration programmePL609 - Neiden prospect Gross prospective resources ~200 MMboe
PL708 - Ørnen prospect Gross prospective resources ~350 MMboe
Vadso
Hammerfest
Norway
BarentsSea
0 KM 10025
609
708
Lundin Petroleum licence
OperatorPartner
Licensed Area23rd Round Blocks
ProspectsIndustry Broadband 3D Seismic
OilGas
Wisting discovery
Alta & Gohta discoveries
Goliat development
Johan Castberg discoveries
Snøhvit Area
Loppa High Area
Hoop Area
South East Barents Sea
Neiden Prospect
Ørnen Prospect
26
2015 Exploration & AppraisalDrilling Schedule
WF1
1117
p1
18.
11.1
4
Licence - Prospect2015
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Country
(1) Net Unrisked Prospective Resources (MMboe)(2) Chance of Geological Success(3) Net Risked Prospective Resources (MMboe)(4) 80% reduced to 50% subject to Government approval
Netherlands exploration wells not included
Norway
Norway
Norway
Malaysia PM307 - Rengas
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
8
9
10
12
13
14
Norway
PL674BS - Zulu Lundinexp 35.00 - - -
PL338C - Gemini Lundinexp 50.00 (4) - - -
PL609 - Alta Appraisal 1 Lundinapp 40.00 - - -
PL609 - Neiden Lundinexp 40.00 82 30% 25
Lundinexp 40.00 61 22% 13
PL609 - Alta Appraisal 2 Lundinapp 40.00 - - -
PL359 - Luno II North Lundinexp 50.00 12 36% 4
PL579 - Morkel Lundinexp 50.00 21% 2198
Norway
Norway
Norway
expPL708 - Ørnen Lundin 40.00 142 20% 28
appPL338 - E.Grieg Appraisal SE Lundin 50.00 - - -11
Norway expPL734 - Zeppelin Wintershall 30.00 46 28% 13
PL544 - Fosen Lundinexp 40.00 22%Norway 77 17
Lundinexp 75.00 16 32% 5
PM307 - Mengkuang Malaysia Lundinexp 75.00 16 35% 6
Norway
PL700 - LorryNorway
Norway
OperatorWelltype
LUPEWI % NUPR(1)
CoGS(2)
NRPR(3)
Discovery
Dry
Ongoing
Ongoing
27
WF8
278
p1
03.
14
Disclaimer
This information has been made public in accordance with the Securities Market Act (SFS 2007:528) and/or the Financial Instruments Trading Act (SFS 1991:980).
Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements made and information contained herein constitute "forward-looking information" (within the meaning of applicable securities legislation). Such statements and information (together, "forward-looking statements") relate to future events, including the Company's future performance, business prospects or opportunities. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to estimates of reserves and/or resources, future production levels, future capital expenditures and their allocation to exploration and development activities, future drilling and other exploration and development activities. Ultimate recovery of reserves or resources are based on forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable and assumptions of management.
All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Statements concerning proven and probable reserves and resource estimates may also be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements and reflect conclusions that are based on certain assumptions that the reserves and resources can be economically exploited. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often, but not always, using words or phrases such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe" and similar expressions) are not statements of historical fact and may be "forward-looking statements". Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. No assurance can be given that these expectations and assumptions will prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements should not be relied upon. These statements speak only as on the date of the information and the Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update these forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable laws. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties relating to, among other things, operational risks (including exploration and development risks), productions costs, availability of drilling equipment, reliance on key personnel, reserve estimates, health, safety and environmental issues, legal risks and regulatory changes, competition, geopolitical risk, and financial risks. These risks and uncertainties are described in more detail under the heading “Risks and Risk Management” and elsewhere in the Company’s annual report. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of risk factors should not be construed as exhaustive. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
28
www.lundin-petroleum.com