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Financial Presentation 6 May 2015 C. Ashley Heppenstall, President & CEO Mike Nicholson, CFO First Quarter 2015 WF12058 6 May 15

Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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Page 1: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

Financial Presentation

6 May 2015

C. Ashley Heppenstall, President & CEOMike Nicholson, CFO

First Quarter 2015

WF12058 6 May 15

Page 2: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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Production (boepd)

Average Brent oil price (USD/boe)

Cost of operations (USD/boe)

Net result (MUSD)

EBITDA (MUSD)

Operating cash flow (MUSD)

First Quarter2015

86.0

155.7

-230.9

25,800

53.9

9.2

First Quarter 2015Financial Highlights

2

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First Quarter 2015Financial Results

50

100

-100

-200

-300

-100

-200

-300

0

150

200

250

300

50

100

0

150

200

250

300

3.2

-230.9

256.0

155.7

86.0

177.8

First Quarter 2014

Net ResultFirst Quarter

2015First Quarter

2014First Quarter

2015First Quarter

2014First Quarter

2015

Mill

ion

US

D

Operating Cash Flow EBITDA

3

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First Quarter 2015Financial Results

0 0

40

-40

80

-80

120

-120

160

-160

-200

-240

40

-40

80

-80

120

-120

160

-160

-200

-240

Mill

ion

US

D

Millio

n U

SD

RevenueMUSD 121.325,800 boepdUSD 52.7/boe

Operating CostsMUSD 25.2Cost of Operations USD 9.2/boe

DepletionMUSD 43.1

Cash MarginMUSD 96.1

Gross ProfitMUSD 7.6

ExplorationMUSD 45.4

G&AMUSD 11.3

FinancialMUSD 225.2

Net ResultMUSD -230.9

TaxMUSD 2.0Effective rate 1%

4

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First Quarter 2015Netback (USD/boe)

Revenue

Cost of operations - Base - ProjectsTariff & transportationProduction taxesInventory movementsOther

Cash Margin

Cash taxes

Operating Cash Flow

General and administration costs (1)

EBITDA

Average Brent oil price USD/boe

52.2

-8.7-0.5-1.1-0.31.0

-1.3

41.3

25.7

67.0

-4.3

37.0

53.9

First Quarter2015

(1) Adjusted for depreciation

5

Page 6: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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Forecast 2015Cost of Operations

10

9

8

7

6

5

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

12

11

USD/boe USD/boe

Q1 2015actual

Q2 2015forecast

Q3 2015forecast

Q4 2015forecast

Base Forecast 2015 USD 7.65/boe(CMD Guidance USD 8.40/boe)

Forecast 2015Including Projects

USD 8.45/boe(CMD Guidance USD 9.35/boe)

Bertam onstreamAlvheim workover Q2/Q3

Edvard Grieg onstream

Including ProjectsBase

6

Page 7: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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Norway

Others

Exploration Costs

First 3 Months2015

after TaxMUSD

9.9

0.4

First 3 Months2015MUSD

44.9

0.5

10.345.4

(PL338C Gemini, PL674BS Zulu)

First Quarter 2015Exploration Costs

7

Page 8: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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First Quarter 2015G & A / Financial Items

General & administration

Long Term Incentive Plan

Net Financial Items

General & Administration Expenses

Foreign exchange loss(1)

(1) Includes MUSD 41.0 loss on settled currency hedges(2) An additional amount of interest expense of MUSD 9.8 has been capitalised

Interest expense(2)

10.7

0.6

204.0

11.8

3.0

2.9

3.5

11.3

225.2

First Quarter 2015MUSD

Loan commitment fees

Amortisation of loan fees

Other

8

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First Quarter 2015Tax

-25.7

26.6

0.9

USD/boe

First Quarter2015

Current tax credit

Deferred tax charge

9

Page 10: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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First Quarter 2015Liquidity MUSD

Debt Outstanding 3,115

Cash Balances

Full access to USD 4 billion under low oil price sensitivity

Margin on Loan Facility: 2.75%

Conservative leverage on Johan Sverdrup

52

Net Debt Position 3,063

at 31 March 2015

10

Page 11: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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First Quarter 2015Liquidity

Norwegian exploration refund facility signed

NOK 4.5 billion over two years

10 international banks

2 x oversubscribed

Low cost funding : NIBOR + 130bps

Secures additional liquidity

11

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First Quarter 2015Debt Position

0

2,400

2,300

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

3,000

3,100

3,200

2,900

0

2,400

2,300

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

3,000

3,100

3,200

2,900

Mill

ion

US

DM

illion

US

D

Operating Cash FlowMUSD 156

DevelopmentMUSD 326

G&A MUSD 10Financial MUSD 67

Exploration & AppraisalMUSD 83

Opening Net Debt1 Jan 2015MUSD 2,609

Closing Net Debt31 March 2015MUSD 3,063

Working CapitalMUSD 124

12

Page 13: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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Hedgesas at 31 March 2015

Apr 2013 - Mar 2016

2015

Q1 2016

Q2-Q4 2016

2017

2018

500

1,500

1,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

0.57%

0.52%

1.50%

1.50%

2.32%

3.06%

BorrowingsMUSD

Floating LIBORrate per annum

Interest rate

2016

2015 unsettled

Total

2,938.4

1,251.8

458.2

182.5

6.41

6.86

4,190.2 640.7 6.54

BUYMNOK

SELLMUSD

Average rateNOK : USD

Currency

13

Page 14: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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First Three Months 2015Highlights

Production Q1 2015: 25,800 boepdBrynhild (Dec14), Bøyla (Jan15) & Bertam (Apr15) commenced production

Barents Sea: Alta-1 appraisal well ongoing, Alta-2 to follow

Forecast exit 2015 production 75,000 boepdFull year 2015 forecast 41,000 – 51,000 boepd

DevelopmentsBrynhild: First oil in December 2014, drilling substantially completedBøyla: First oil in January 2015, all wells drilled and completedBertam: First oil in April 2015, drilling to continue to late 2015Edvard Grieg: Topsides construction completed, ready for offshore sail-out. First oil Q4 2015Johan Sverdrup: Phase 1 PDO submitted by partnership. Approval expected in June 2015

Appraisal

ExplorationTwo wells added to 2015 Norwegian campaign, Lorry and ZeppelinMorkel well ongoingRemaining wells for 2015: 7 Norway, 2 Malaysia – targeting 550 MMboe net unrisked

LiquiditySigning of new NOK 4.5 billion exploration refund facility

14

Page 15: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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New ProductionBrynhild, Bøyla, Bertam

Brynhild

Plateau ProductionNet Boepd(1)Field

10,800

~3,000

11,250

ReservesNet MMboe

20.5

3.4

13.8

Bøyla

Bertam

First Oil: 19 January 2015

First Oil: 5 April 2015

First Oil: 29 December 2014

New fields will add a plateau production capacity of ~25,000 boepd

Development: Subsea Tie-back to Pierce FPSO

Development: Subsea Tie-back to Alvheim FPSO2 producer, 1 injector

2 producer, 1 producer & injector, 1 injector

14 horizontal well with ESP’s

(1) Plateau from each field not achieved simultaneously

Development: Stand alone with Bertam FPSO

Brynhild

Bøyla

Bertam

25,000 boepd37.7 MMboe

15

Page 16: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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5

Lundin PetroleumProduction

2009 2010 2011

2009-2014 Production(1)

2012 2013 2014

(1) Excluding discontinued operations

Guidance highGuidance lowActual production

Guidance highGuidance lowOther productionNorway production

Th

ou

san

d b

oep

d n

et

0

20

40

60

80

0

20

40

60

80

Q1 2015 production: 25,800 boepd Volund outperformed (reservoir), Brynhild underperformed (facilities, weather)

2015 production guidance: 41,000 - 51,000 boepd

Production guidance impacted by: Start-up date for Edvard Grieg Ramp-up of Brynhild, Bøyla, Bertam, Edvard Grieg

2015 Production Guidance

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42015

Bertam first oilApril 2015

Bøyla first oilJan 2015

Brynhild first oilDec 2015

E. Grieg first oil

Norway, 70%

France, 7%

Netherlands, 3%

Malaysia, 16%

Indonesia, 4%

2015 Forecast

16

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Norway & MalaysiaDevelopment Projects

Brynhild (Lundin 90% operator)

Ongoing Norwegian Developments

Edvard Grieg (Lundin 50% operator)

Johan Sverdrup (Lundin 22.12%) (1)

Bøyla (Lundin 15%)

Ivar Aasen Unit (Lundin 1.385%)

Norway

MalaysiaMalaysia - Natuna Sea

"

0 KM 40

NorwayNorth Sea

United

Kingdom

Stavanger

Bøyla

Edvard Grieg

Ivar Aasen Unit

Brynhild

Johan Sverdrup

Ongoing Malaysian Development

Bertam (Lundin 75% operator)

(1) Subject to approval by Ministry of Petroleum and Energy

Kuala Lumpur

Singapore

Indonesia

Malaysia

Malaysia

Indonesia

0 100KM

Bertam

2015 Budget USD 1,280 Million

First oil achieved

First oil achieved

Dec. 2014

Jan. 2015

First oil achieved Apr. 2015

17

Page 18: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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Lundin NorwayEdvard Grieg Development

Edvard Grieg Platform

Luno South

Ivar Aasen Platform

Gas Export to SAGE

Ivar Aasen

Edvard Grieg

Oil Export to Grane

Lundin Petroleum interest: 50% (operator) OMV 20%, Wintershall 15%, Statoil 15%

2P reserves: 187 MMboe gross

Plateau production: 100,000 boepd gross

00160015

PL359PL338C

PL501

PL501B

PL674

PL265

PL546

PL625

PL544

PL410

PL167 & PL167BPL673

PL779

UK

Norway

0 KM 20

PL778

Engineering/Procurement

Construction/Assembly

Offshore Hook-up/Commissioning

Drilling

Contract Award

Load out/Seafastning & Marine Operations

Pipelaying

Norway - Southern Utsira High

Edvard Grieg Schematic

Johan Sverdrup

Lundin Petroleum Operator

Lundin Petroleum Partner

PL338

Q4Q32012

Oil & Gas Export Pipeline

Drilling

Jacket Execution

Topside Execution

Installation

Decision Gate / PDO

Q2Q1 Q4Q32013

Q2Q1 Q4Q32014

Q2Q1 Q1 Q4Q32015

Q2

First Oil

PDO Approved by Authorities

OilGasGas pipelay

Production startup Q4 2015

Drilling 15 wells from jack-up rig – commenced drilling operation

Jacket completed and installed

Topside construction completed and loaded-out

Capital costs: 25 NOK billion

Oil and gas pipelines installation completed

One appraisal well in south east of the field to be drilled in Q2 2015

Luno II

Ivar Aasen Unit

Edvard Grieg

Remaining Workload

Offshore installationOffshore hook-up andcommissioningDevelopment well drilling

18

Page 19: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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Development ProjectsEdvard Grieg Work Status

Topsides - LQ and Helideck en route to Stord

Edvard Grieg development drilling and topsides load-out

19

Page 20: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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(1) Subject to approval by Ministry of Petroleum and Energy

NorwayJohan Sverdrup Development

J. Sverdrup

PL502

PL501

PL265

0 5KM

$

Phase 1 PDO submitted in February 2015. Approval June 2015Tract participation agreement signed by 4 of 5 partners. The Ministerto determine final agreement by June 2015.

16/2-6

Johan Sverdrup

Working Interest (1)

Lundin Norway

Statoil

Maersk

Det norske

Petoro

Johan Sverdrup

22.1200%

40.0267%

8.1200%

11.8933%

17.8400%

Norway

Field Outline

20

Page 21: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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Riser platform

Wellhead & Drillingplatform

Johan Sverdrup Phase I Topside Layout

Contract awards Kværner Verdal for delivery of jacket for the riser platform Aker engineering & procurement management for the riser & processing platform topsides Aibel EPC contract for the drilling platform Allseas contract for the installation of three platforms using heavy-lift vessel Pioneering Spirit

Phase I Full fieldCAPEX NOK 117 BnProduction Level: 315-380,000 bopd

Gross CAPEX NOK 170-220 Bn (including Phase I)Gross Contingent Resources: 1,700-3,000 MMboePlateau Production : 550-650,000 boepd

2015 2016 2017 2018Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2Q3 Q4 Q3 Q4

PDO Submitted Phase IPDO Approval - Phase I PDO Submission - Phase II First Oil - Phase I First Oil - Phase II

2019 2020 2021Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2022

NorwayJohan Sverdrup Development

21

Page 22: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

Production ForecastFrom Ongoing Development

WF1

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p1

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4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2018 2019 2020 .......

Bøyla, 19.01.15Brynhild, 25.12.14

2016 2017

JohanSverdrup

JohanSverdrup

10-15exploration wellsper year

EdvardGrieg

EdvardGrieg

IvarAasenIvar

Aasen

boepd

33

,00

0(1

)

30

,40

0(1

)

23

,80

0(1

)

41

–5

1,0

00

Other existing contingent andprospective resources not included in production forecast

Bertam, 05.04.15

Exit Rate 2015: 75,000 boepd

(1)Excluding divested assets (Russia)

22

Page 23: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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7 exploration wells remaining

6 operated wells

Targeting ~515 MMboe

net unrisked prospective resources

2 exploration wells

Targeting ~30 MMboe

net unrisked prospective resources

2 exploration wells drilled

Gemini (PL338C) - Dry

Zulu (PL674BS) - Gas discovery, non-commercial

3 appraisal wells remaining

2 on Alta discovery, 1 on Edvard Grieg

(1) Excluding Gemini & Zulu, the remaining net unrisked resources are ~ 550 MMboe

Malaysia

Norway

Norway

UK

Barents Sea

Norwegian Sea

North Sea

2015 E&A Budget: 470 MUSD Net Targetted Resources(1) 675 MMboe

2015Exploration & Appraisal Drilling

Luno II North Zeppelin

Morkel ongoing

Lorry

Ørnen

Fosen

Greater Alvheim Area

Utsira High Area

Barents Sea Area

Neiden

Alta (2)

Edvar Grieg SE

Remaining 2015 prospectsAppraisal wells

Malaysia

Norway

Kuala Lumpur

Singapore

Indonesia

Malaysia

Malaysia

Indonesia

0 100KM

PM307 2 exploration wells

23

Page 24: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

Norway - Barents Sea SouthOverview

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Barents SeaRussia

FinlandSweden

Norway

Svalbard

70°0

'0"N

0 KM 400

Norway

UnitedKingdom

Ireland Germany

Netherlands

DenmarkNorth Sea

0 KM 400

Barents SeaUnderexplored ~ 100 wells

Lundin Petroleum is a major licenceholder in the Loppa High area

5 recent oil discoveries+ 2 gas discoveries

~ 1 billion boe discoveredover last 4 years

24

Page 25: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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Norway - 2015 Appraisal ActivitiesBarents Sea - Alta / Gohta Appraisal

Loppa High

Hammerfest Basin

Tromsø Basin

Bjørnøya Bassenget

Bjørn

øyre

nna F

ault

Compl

ex

Vesle

møy H

igh

Polh

eim

Sub

-pla

tform

Rin

gvas

søy-

Lopp

a Fa

ult C

ompl

ex

Børselv

Neiden

LakselvSouth

LakselvNorth

659533

609

438490

492 609 B

SNØHVIT

Skalle

Johan Castberg

Kramsnø

SkavlDrivis

Iskrystall

Salina

Trål

NoaideBoazo

Komag

ReinLavvo

Formica

Rauto

Johan Catsberg Discoveries

PL492 (operated), 40%

Gross recoverable oil and gas resource estimate range:91–184 MMboe ( 2C: 128 MMboe)

One further appraisal under review

Gohta Discovery

Lundin Petroleum Licences

Operated Non Operated

Fields

ProspectsOil Gas

Gohta Discovery

Alta Discovery

767

805

0 KM 20

Gohta AppraisalGohta Discovery

Senilex well (1985)

GOC

OWC

Alta Discovery2015 Alta Appraisal 2

2015 Alta Appraisal 1 (ongoing)

Alta DiscoveryPL609 (Lundin 40%, operated)

Gross recoverable oil and gas resource estimate range:125–400 MMboe (2C: 224 MMboe) Two appraisal wells in 2015 - First appraisal well ongoing

25

Page 26: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

Norway - Barents Sea SouthExploration

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15

2015 Exploration programmePL609 - Neiden prospect Gross prospective resources ~200 MMboe

PL708 - Ørnen prospect Gross prospective resources ~350 MMboe

Vadso

Hammerfest

Norway

BarentsSea

0 KM 10025

609

708

Lundin Petroleum licence

OperatorPartner

Licensed Area23rd Round Blocks

ProspectsIndustry Broadband 3D Seismic

OilGas

Wisting discovery

Alta & Gohta discoveries

Goliat development

Johan Castberg discoveries

Snøhvit Area

Loppa High Area

Hoop Area

South East Barents Sea

Neiden Prospect

Ørnen Prospect

26

Page 27: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

2015 Exploration & AppraisalDrilling Schedule

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Licence - Prospect2015

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Country

(1) Net Unrisked Prospective Resources (MMboe)(2) Chance of Geological Success(3) Net Risked Prospective Resources (MMboe)(4) 80% reduced to 50% subject to Government approval

Netherlands exploration wells not included

Norway

Norway

Norway

Malaysia PM307 - Rengas

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

8

9

10

12

13

14

Norway

PL674BS - Zulu Lundinexp 35.00 - - -

PL338C - Gemini Lundinexp 50.00 (4) - - -

PL609 - Alta Appraisal 1 Lundinapp 40.00 - - -

PL609 - Neiden Lundinexp 40.00 82 30% 25

Lundinexp 40.00 61 22% 13

PL609 - Alta Appraisal 2 Lundinapp 40.00 - - -

PL359 - Luno II North Lundinexp 50.00 12 36% 4

PL579 - Morkel Lundinexp 50.00 21% 2198

Norway

Norway

Norway

expPL708 - Ørnen Lundin 40.00 142 20% 28

appPL338 - E.Grieg Appraisal SE Lundin 50.00 - - -11

Norway expPL734 - Zeppelin Wintershall 30.00 46 28% 13

PL544 - Fosen Lundinexp 40.00 22%Norway 77 17

Lundinexp 75.00 16 32% 5

PM307 - Mengkuang Malaysia Lundinexp 75.00 16 35% 6

Norway

PL700 - LorryNorway

Norway

OperatorWelltype

LUPEWI % NUPR(1)

CoGS(2)

NRPR(3)

Discovery

Dry

Ongoing

Ongoing

27

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Disclaimer

This information has been made public in accordance with the Securities Market Act (SFS 2007:528) and/or the Financial Instruments Trading Act (SFS 1991:980).

Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements made and information contained herein constitute "forward-looking information" (within the meaning of applicable securities legislation). Such statements and information (together, "forward-looking statements") relate to future events, including the Company's future performance, business prospects or opportunities. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to estimates of reserves and/or resources, future production levels, future capital expenditures and their allocation to exploration and development activities, future drilling and other exploration and development activities. Ultimate recovery of reserves or resources are based on forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable and assumptions of management.

All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Statements concerning proven and probable reserves and resource estimates may also be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements and reflect conclusions that are based on certain assumptions that the reserves and resources can be economically exploited. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often, but not always, using words or phrases such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe" and similar expressions) are not statements of historical fact and may be "forward-looking statements". Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. No assurance can be given that these expectations and assumptions will prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements should not be relied upon. These statements speak only as on the date of the information and the Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update these forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable laws. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties relating to, among other things, operational risks (including exploration and development risks), productions costs, availability of drilling equipment, reliance on key personnel, reserve estimates, health, safety and environmental issues, legal risks and regulatory changes, competition, geopolitical risk, and financial risks. These risks and uncertainties are described in more detail under the heading “Risks and Risk Management” and elsewhere in the Company’s annual report. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of risk factors should not be construed as exhaustive. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.

28

Page 29: Financial presentation - Q1 2015

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