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Table of contents

Historic win: AAP winning 67 seats is the mandate of all mandate

It is our victory: Aam aadmi celebrates AAP landslide in Delhi elections 05Delhi election result: Its a victory for truth, says Kejriwal after landslide win 07Amazing stats from Delhi polls: 55 AAP MLAs won with more than 50% vote share 08Zero MLAs with serious criminal charges: Delhis new assembly is the cleanest in India 13Pundits got it wrong: Post-poll survey shows how AAP engineered its shocking win 14#AAPSweep to #AAPKiDilli: After historic win, AAP hashtags take Twitter by storm 17Who was least wrong? All the Delhi exit poll predictions completely miss the mark 19Mufflerman is now Godzilla: Arvind Kejriwals 54% victory is baap of all mandates 26Business-friendly Kejriwal? What made baniyas choose AAP over BJP 28Election mystery: How did Delhi exit polls completely miss the AAP tsunami? 30Landslide victory in Delhi: Heres why AAPs humility after victory is touching 32

What AAPs victory means for BJP and Congress

Congress rout in Delhi: Will Rahul Gandhi own responsibility now? 35Yogendra Yadav is right, after AAP win, other states will write off PM Modi at their peril 36Delhi defeat means 2015 has to be Modis year of big reforms. Its now or never 38Delhi poll results: AAPs landslide victory show how media misread Modi wave 40Stop giving gyaan, we arent idiots: Aam aadmis royal snub to BJP in Delhi polls 42Modi defeated Modi in Delhi polls: He cannot avoid blame for BJPs rout 44Five mistakes of Kiran Bedis life: Why BJP was routed in Delhi 47Beware a Congress-mukt Bharat: AAP is not the BJP counter that India needs 49

AAP wins but it wont be an easy ride

AAP sweeps Delhi by its feet, but BJP and Modi wont make life easy for Kejriwal 53Why Arvind Kejriwal has the right to be very scared of Delhi election results 55Delusion posing as reality: AAPs biggest challenge is to deliver on its manifesto 57Aaptard wars: What Kejriwals supporters can learn from Modi and his bhakts 60Dear AAP: Landslide Delhi election victory does not a national party make 63Ready, set, slow: Can AAP avoid the pitfalls that come with absolute power? 65AAP clearly wants to go national, but it must prove itself in Delhi first 68Careful what you ask for: Kejriwals full Delhi statehood demand could backfire 70


The Twitter verdict

Delhi results: Three charts to show how the election played out on Twitter 74Yahan ke hum Sikandar to Yeh kya hua: Songs for AAP, BJP and Cong after Delhi results 78Invisible man, the BJP and the Tata Nano and other top jokes inspired by the Delhi polls 81Invisible man, the BJP and the Tata Nano and other top jokes inspired by the Delhi polls 85Cooler than Michelle Obama, meet Delhis truly modern, aam aurat first lady Sunita Kejriwal 89


Historic win: AAP winning 67 seats is the mandate of all mandate


It is our victory: Aam aadmi celebrates AAP landslide in Delhi elections

Debobrat Ghose, February 10, 2015

N ew Delhi: In the year the creator of the ubiquitous yet speechless common man, RK Laxman, died, the real com-mon man has found his voice through the com-mon mans party. The historic win of the Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi Assembly Election 2015 with a verdict that will ensure it will never have to abandon the seat of power, proves that the way the common man voted in this country so far has changed for good.

Its is the victory of none other than the aam aadmi (common man) - is what could be heard throughout East Patel Nagar the headquar-ters of the AAP, with a sea of people all around greeting one another.

While thanking the party workers and the people of Delhi, Kejriwal from the balcony of his party office said, We shouldnt become ar-rogant after this verdict. Its arrogance that has reduced the Congress and the BJP to this state. Weve to serve the people with folded hands (Haath jod kar humey sewa karni hai). Oth-erwise people will reduce us to the same state after five years.

The results showed 67 seats for the AAP (de-clared and leading) and three for the BJP. The Congress scored a grand total of zero.

Much before the results started pouring in and the trends showed AAP candidates much ahead and celebrations began outside the East Patel Nagar office of the party and at the park oppo-site it. Revellers shouted slogans, showered rose petals and waved the national flag.

The jubilation in the locality and outside the Patel Nagar metro station was mind-boggling. An unusual scene on the streets of Patel Nagar was the sea of white topis (caps) as far as the eye could see. Autowallahs, e-rickshaw drivers and cycle rickshaw pullers were all sporting the white AAP topi and shouting the party's slogan: Paanch Saal Kejriwal (Five years for Kejriwal).

Ramprasad, a cycle rickshaw puller ferrying this correspondent from the East Patel Nagar office of the Aam Aadmi Party to the metro station, said, Yeh humari jeet hai (This is our victory). Finally, a right man, Arvind Kejriwal has been elected to be the chief minister of Delhi.

It was equally chaotic situation around the AAP office. People, volunteers and followers could be seen showering rose petals and cheering with blue balloons, cut-outs of Kejriwal and the party's symbol the jhaadu (brooms).

Pankaj Gupta, a senior AAP leader and a key strategist for the party told Firstpost: We were definite about getting 50 seats as Yogendra Yadav had projected. But todays result speaks about the faith that the Delhi voters reposed in us. They really understand who to vote for. They cant be fooled by false claims. People have voted for us knowing that the AAP would deliver what it has committed to. Now, we have a lot of pressure on us. We have to perform and assure Delhiites that we would deliver what we had promised.

Among those on the streets of Delhi, many were jubilant over the AAP's victory.


Riyazuddin, an auto-rickshaw driver said: Ye jeet logon ki mohabbat ka nateeza hai (This win is the result of the peoples love). All autowal-lahs unanimously voted for AAP.

Shamshad Khan, another autorickshaw driver who came from Okhla to the AAP headquarters to be a part of the historic moment, said,This is the result of Kejriwals 49-day government, as we saw its effects ourselves. This time, physi-cally challenged, ill and the old, all came out to vote in large numbers and that is why AAP has got such a phenomenal victory.

Amidst a huge cheering crowd of AAP mem-bers, volunteers, local residents and people from other parts of Delhi who were a part of the victory celebration, a sexagenarian couple from East Patel Nagar was found moving around with blue balloons.

The woman, 62-year-old Asha Jain, said, Peo-ple in Delhi are tired of Congress. The BJP cant do anything as it has proved in the functioning of the municipal corporation. The best option was AAP and the voters took a chance by bring-ing in AAP with a majority.

Her husband, 66-year-old AK Jain, This land-slide victory is the result of peoples anger. The days of speeches and rhetoric are over.

Another senior citizen Vinay Aneja from nearby Ramesh Nagar said, We expect the promises made by AAP to be delivered soon, people have voted for change from regular parties over the traditional ones. However, we also wish to see Arvind Kejriwal spending his time on making Delhi a better state and not just on agitations, dharnas and blame games as what happened during his last 49 days tenure.


Delhi election result: Its a victory for truth, says Kejriwal after landslide win

IANS, February 10, 2015

N ew Delhi: In his first public comments after his AAP won a landslide in Delhi's assembly election, party leader Arvind Kejriwal Tuesday described it as "a victory for truth and honesty".

Addressing thousands of cheering supporters at the AAP office in central Delhi, Kejriwal said an Aam Aadmi Party government would work in a manner that both the poor and the rich would be proud of Delhi.

The 46-year-old then introduced his wife Su-nita to the frenzied crowds chanting "Paanch Saal Kejriwal!" slogans and waving hundreds of party flags and brooms -- the AAP election symbol.

"This is my wife," he said, putting his arm around her shoulders. And as she folded her hands in greeting triggering a roar, he added: "I would have never been able to work if she had not supported me."

As Kejriwal made his brief comments, giving due credit to the AAP's victory to the voters and his activists, he said: "This is not a victory of the AAP. This is a victory for truth and honesty."


Amazing stats from Delhi polls: 55 AAP MLAs won with more than 50% vote share

FP Staff, February 12, 2015

T he Delhi election results have given the Aam Aadmi Party a landslide win of 67 seats out of a total of 70 seats. The party which won 28 seats in the last election, com-pletely routed the BJP, which was reduced to a mere 3 seats from its previous tally of 31.

AAP's victory is much more impressive if you look at the fact that the party managed to get 54.3 percent of the total vote-share, which is a rare feat indeed for any party in India. In the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, the AAP had got a vote-share of 32.9 percent in Delhi. Even though this was an increase from its vote share of 29 percent in 2013 Assembly elections, the party had failed to win any seat but finished second in every seat.

The Delhi election results have seen new records being set in nearly each constituency. According to the Association of Democratic Reforms, the average vote-share of all the MLAs who won the election was 55 percent and that 55 (79 percent) out of 70 MLAs won with a vote share of 50 percent or more. All of these are AAP MLAs.

We take a look at some interesting statistics regarding the Delhi election:

It wasn't party chief Arvind Kejriwal but MLA Prakash Jarwal won with the highest vote share (71 percent) in the Deoli constituency of Delhi. He is also the youngest candidate from the party at 25-years-old and had left a job at a multi-national firm to join the party.

MLA who won with the highest vote share at 71percent


MLA Kailash Gehlot from Najafgarh, who also belongs to AAP won with the lowest vote share of 35 percent. Gehlot is an advocate and RTI activist. He also had the lowest margin of victory.

MLA who won with lowest vote share.

Lower percentage of margin of victory


Sandeep Kumar from AAP had the highest margin of victory in percentage. He beat BJP councillor Prabhu Dayal and four-time legislator and sitting MLA Jai Kishan of Congress in the election.

AAP's Sandeep Kumar had the highest percent of Margin of victory.

AAP's Mahender Yadav had the highest margin of victory in terms of votes from Vikaspuri. Yadav had also won from Vikaspuri in 2013 elections.

MLA with highest margin of victory in terms of votes.


Only 0.4 percent of the votes polled were NOTA. Matiala saw the highest number of NOTA votes at 1102.

And finally an infographic showing the Delhi vote share percentage, along with the number of MLAs who won by more than 50% of vote-share.


Zero MLAs with serious criminal charges: Delhis new assembly is the cleanest in India

FP Politics, February 12, 2015

I n a welcome change from the politics we are used to seeing in India, it turns out that most of the newly elected Delhi MLA's don't have serious criminal charges against them.In a report analysing the Delhi poll result, the Association of Democratic Reforms has said,

"Out of the 70 MLAs, 24 (34%) have declared criminal cases against themselves. 23 (34%) AAP MLAs out of 67 MLAs have declared criminal cases while 1 (33%) out of 3 BJP MLAs has declared criminal cases. Out of 70 MLAs in the Delhi Assembly elections in 2013, 25 (36%) MLAs had de-clared criminal cases against themselves and in the 2008 Delhi Assembly Elections 29 (43%) out of 68 MLAs analysed had declared criminal cases."

"There were no MLAs who declared heinous criminal cases like murder, attempt to murder, crimes against women etc which is a welcome change and is unusual as compared to the rest of the coun-try."

The report also analysed the newly elected MLAs on the basis of wealth, education and gender.

In terms of wealth, it turns out that 63 percent of the elected legislators are crorepatis, which is a ten percent drop from the number of crorepatis who were elected in 2013. It is also lower than the 69 percent crorepatis in the 2008 assembly. The new assembly is also a lot younger than ever before. 70 percent of the MLAs are between 25 and 70 years of age.

In fact the average age of the MLAs is 42 years, primarily due to 28 newly-elected MLAs, who fall in the 25-40 years age bracket, a 35 percent rise as compared to the last Assembly.

You can read the whole report here:


Pundits got it wrong: Post-poll survey shows how AAP engineered its shocking win

FP Politics, February 12, 2015

A lmost one in every two voters voted for the AAP in Delhi. Defying pundit predic-tions of a class war, support for the party ate into what were traditional vote banks of national parties like the Congress and BJP. The biggest factor in the AAP landslide: its choice of Chief Minister.

Here's what the final vote shares across parties looked like:

T hat's the conclusion of a CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey conducted on 7 Feb-ruary found. It is just one of the many notable insights offered by the survey, which also maps the sheer breadth and reach of AAP's popularity.

AAP swept aside all caste/class barriers

As we'd pointed out earlier, certain seats in the

national capital are dominated by particular communities and therefore considered strong-holds of particular parties. AAP swept aside such traditional notions of 'safe' seats in its march towards victory.

While the BJP may have largely held on to the support of particular castes like Brahmins and Jains, it saw an deep erosion in the number of people supporting it from other upper caste


communities like the Punjabi Khatris and Ra-jputs. The traditional support base of the Con-gress seems to have moved almost completely to the AAP. The absence of identity-based voting is glaringly evident in the case of the four Shiro-mani Akali Dal candidates who were fielded to win seats where the Sikh and Punjabi commu-nity votes played a role, but all of them ended up on the losing side.

The C-voter exit poll indicated that the AAP en-joyed greater support among the young but had a wide lead when it came to the relatively less educated of the city. It enjoyed much greater support when it came to those engaged in blue collar jobs and students while it was neck and neck with the BJP among the professional class. The CSDS- Lokniti survey, however, shows that the AAP won 66% of the poor, 57% of the lower class, 51% of the middle class, and 47% of the upper class. BJP did far better in the poshest areas of Delhi, but in the end won only 43% of the upper class votes. All that talk about a class war turned out to be just hot air in the end.

The two surveys show that will have to recog-nise the fact that the voter is no longer held by old loyalties, as Firstpost Executive Editor, Lakshmi Chaudhry, observed,

The base the solid voting bloc that a party or leader can rely on winning as a bare mini-mum in a given election is shrinking. We are witnessing the rise of the independent voter who is driven purely by self-interest, and who will increasingly become the decisive factor in Indian elections, much as in the United States. Kejriwal can no more rely on her allegiance than a Modi.

Amit Shah's last minute scramble was justified and futile

The post poll survey also found that a majority of the voters (62 percent) had made up their mind well before the parties began campaign-ing, and the skew was decidedly in favour of AAP. The authors of the survey write:

Among the earliest decision-makers, the AAP enjoyed a lead of 22 percentage points over the BJP. The gap widens to almost 37 points among those who decided early during the

campaign. This probably justifies the BJPs hasty decision of playing the Bedi gamble. Again, one could argue probably that the BJP had to do something out-of-the-box to have a chance. The distress call by BJP in the last leg of campaigning by roping in the Prime Min-ister and his cabinet helped the party salvage some of its vote as the gap narrowed to some extent among those who decided close to voting (26 per cent). The intensive BJP campaign in the last 10 days seems to have been just enough for it to retain its core support group.

So while we're all beating up on Amit Shah, his choices in the last month of campaigning were perhaps what preserved BJP's vote share. But the numbers also show that it was too late. BJP's high visibility effort that relied on adver-tisements, Facebook and Twitter campaigns likely did little to change the outcome, accord-ing to the survey. In the end, AAP won with a better ground game, more appealing message, and of course, CM candidate.

Kejriwal mattered

The one factor that was perhaps most under-estimated in TV studios and opinion columns was the personal popularity of Arvind Kejri-wal. Making him the AAP choice of CM was in the end the single biggest factor in the party's sweep.

The CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey found that Kejriwal enjoyed a far higher standing among voters than Kiran Bedi, even on subjects that she spoke extensively on, such as the safety of women. Whether it was solving the city's water and power woes, tackling the problems of the city's slums, running the government or curb-ing corruption, Kejriwal enjoyed the trust of the Delhi voter far more than his BJP rival, and Modi's best efforts did little to change that view. Neither Bedi nor Modi could hold on to the additional voters brought in by the Modi wave in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, who ended up in the AAP camp this time around, leaving BJP with little more than its traditional base.

In a number of ways, the survey confirms what we already suspected at the sight of that 67 number. But the real scale of the victory will be evident only once the Election Commission


releases its data which will show us just how AAP dismantled the BJP and every other party so comprehensively in Delhi.


#AAPSweep to #AAPKiDilli: After historic win, AAP hashtags take Twitter by storm

PTI, February 10, 2015

N ew Delhi: The landslide victory of AAP in Delhi today sent netizens into a frenzy as they flooded social network-

ing sites with messages congratulating Arvind Kejriwal and his party.

Hashtags like #AAPSweep, #AAPKiDilli, #KisKiDilli and #DelhiLegislativeAssembly trended throughout the day with numerous tweets and Facebook posts pouring in from across the country.

Actress Shabana Azmi posted, "The indian voter deserves all our respect.Congratulations to #AAP. Dilli ne keh diya ab tumhare hawale watan saathiyo.ball is in your court (sic)."

Film maker Pritish Nandy tweeted, "Indian vot-ers are very sharp. Never underestimate them. They know the power they wield."

Director Shekhar Kapoor wrote, "And now, Dear @ArvindKejriwal it's time for you to prove you deserve theimmense faith that Voters have put on ur shoul-ders #DelhiDecides."

AAP leader and actress Gul Panag wrote, "What makes this victory sweeter is that it was won against all odds. I bow to the effort and energy

of every AAP volunteer."

"An apology from the PM for losing touch with the people would go a long way. Followed by major anti-corruption reforms and changes in BJP," tweeted author Chetan Bhagat.

Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Naren-dra Modi congratulated Kejriwal and posted, "Spoke to @ArvindKejriwal & congratulated him on the win. Assured him Centre's complete support in the development of Delhi."

Kiran Bedi also tweeted, "Full marks to Arvind. Congratulations. Now take Delhi to the heights it belongs to. Make it a world class city". West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee also congratulated Kejriwal for the victory.

She tweeted, "My hearty congratulations to AAP for sweeping Delhi Elections. All the best @ArvindKejriwal the new CM."

Former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah posted, "Wow, well done #Delhi & well done @AamAadmiParty. Good luck to @ArvindKejriwal for the next 5 years."

According to social media watchdog Buzzooka '#AAPSweep' was trending at the top spot in India with 29,000 tweets during first half of the day.

One Dibyesh Anand wrote on twitter, "A great news that gives hope against majoritarian nationalism in democracy #DelhiElections #AAPSweep" another netizen Mansihullah Budye wrote, "When #Delhi went to poll, no one in their right mind would have predicted this result. #DelhiDecides #AAPSweep"

"#AAPSweep Unbelievable mandate. Let the deserving win and hopefully Capital City will become the best city in the world. ALL THE


BEST," tweeted Aparna Chakraborty.

A lot of netizens were also seen taking a dig at BJP's chief ministerial candidate Kiran Bedi for the party's defeat.

"#AAPSweep It took 20 days for @thekiranbedi to ruin all the hard work party workers have done in years!" wrote Neha Gupta.


Who was least wrong? All the Delhi exit poll predictions completely miss the mark

FP Staff, February 10, 2015

T he Aam Aadmi Party has won 60 and leading in seven of Delhi's 70 seats, an unprecedented margin of victory. The BJP is down to a paltry three seats with the Congress no where in the picture.

Although, the exit polls had predicted a dra-matic comeback for AAP's Arvind Kejriwal, all

of them had foreseen a neck-to-neck fight be-tween AAP and BJP. But the Delhi mandate has proved all of them wrong.


Mufflerman is now Godzilla: Arvind Kejriwals 54% victory is baap of all mandates

R. Jagannathan, February 10, 2015

D elhi is an unusual election in many ways. It fact it is an outlier by any standard of Indian voting behaviour seen in the recent past.

The reason is not the landslide win for Arvind Kejriwals Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which gives it a 60-plus seat majority in a 70-seat assembly. What makes Delhi different is that, possibly for the first time in several decades, one party is likely to receive more that 50 percent of the popular vote.Narendra Modis vote in 2014 was 31 percent

for the BJP. Akhilesh Yadavs vote in 2012 was under 30 percent for a majority. Almost no party which swept to power has got more than 35-40 percent of the popular vote.

Voting trends available till around 10.30 am, which have held all through the morning, show AAP with 53.2 percent of the total vote, against the BJPs 33.8 percent and Congresss 8.5 per-cent. The rest got peanuts, if at all.

Seldom has one party got this kind of mandate ever in a fragmented Indian election. This is a mandate like almost no other.

But, first, it is necessary to assess what hap-pened, before we discuss the implications of this vote.

The BJP, despite the pathetic seat count, has actually held on to its voter base. It got more votes than what it did the last time, but it got almost none of the incremental vote. It did not benefit from the collapse of the Congress vote or from the new voters who entered EVM booths for the first time this time This means it has a base to build on, but must actively woo the new demographic in the coming months and years to stay relevant.

The Congress has been trounced badly. It has seen its 2013 vote down to a third of its previous level, which means the party is rapidly becom-ing irrelevant in Delhi, too a state it ruled with distinction for 15 years upto December 2013.

That only party (BSP) got past the 1 percent mark tells its own story. It means Delhi is be-ginning to transcend the caste and community divide. Neither INLD (Jats), nor the Akali Dal (Sikhs) got to 1 percent.

Looked at another way, the Delhi vote is an even bigger threat to the regional parties in other parts of the country than just for the BJP.

Probably for the first time ever, though we saw glimpses of it in the May 2014 elections too, a state is voting more on class lines, even though AAP has demonstrated a hold among all classes. The underclass and the minorities were the bed-rock of AAPs support, even though it did well in all segments.

What unites all classes (at least temporarily) is probably the idea of less corruption and good government, but this will not endure. Any state with finite resources will have to decide how to allocate its spending. It cannot pay Pappu, Rahim and Singh uniformly. It has to choose its priorities, and, in the process, it can alienate some segments.

Logically, the best way forward for AAP to cre-


ate a long-term viability for its political position is to concentrate on delivering public goods law and order, clean water, reduction of corrup-tion, good social and physical infrastructure, including better education and health facilities and go easy on private goods (freebies, cheap-er power, food and other subsidies). The AAP manifesto has, however, promised too much here too.

AAP will succeed not by extending the reach of the state endlessly, but by redefining its role in order to allow priority to the provision of public goods and services. Private goods and subsidies should be the exception. But its aam aadmi base will be demanding more freebies.

This is where AAPs 50 percent plus vote share is worrisome. This means everybody has voted for it for his or her own reason, and so the chances of being able to meet everybodys exces-sive expectations are remote.

I would not like to be in Arvind Kejriwals shoes right now. His mandate is truly scary.


Business-friendly Kejriwal? What made baniyas choose AAP over BJP

Sunainaa Chadha, February 10, 2015

W ith all trends clearly showing a clean sweep by Aam Aadmi Party, party chief Arvind Kejriwal has not only won the support of the working classes and the lower middle classes but has also won over the BJP's core constituency of the upper castes - especially the trader class - with the promise of a corruption-free society and rationalision of VAT.

Even though Corporate India has often criti-cised AAP for being too populist, it hasn't stopped the party from winning the support of some members of the business community who are prepared to put their money where their mouths are. The reason? BJP never walked the talk in Delhi. Despite initially refusing to form the government as it was short on numbers, it made no effort to form a government in the last several months, leaving many traders high and dry.

Apart from just promising lower water and power tarrifs, this time around Kejriwal went one step further to win over the 25 lakh strong trader community, that constitutes about 20 percent of the electorate in Delhi and has for long been a safe BJP constituency.

He did so with the promise of lowering value-added tax on products, which were higher in states, especially neighbouring ones. Consumers

and traders have both expressed their unhap-piness with the arbitrary manner VAT is cur-rently calculated without a proper rationale. Kejriwal also floated a proposal to initiate the online payment of taxes.

Then during his rallies, Kejriwal described himself as a baniya, playing on his Aggarwal gotra - and he successfully used it to exploit an anti-BJP sentiment among the baniya voters in the capital following the cartoon-based poll advertisement released by the BJP insulting Kejriwal for his caste, using the term upadravi (nuisance causing) gotra.

As Firstpost reported earlier, Kejriwal was quick to capitalise on the situation and had dragged the attention of the whole Agarwal community, despairing over the insult and demanding an apology. The BJP targeted my children in their ad, but I kept quiet, didn't react. They has been launching personal attacks on me through their ads, but they referred to the entire Agarwal Samaj as Updravi', Kejriwal had alleged earlier.

As it is, the BJP-led central government has been struggling to address the community's misgivings over Foreign Direct Investment in retail and Kejriwal positioning the ad as an in-sult to the entire community only added to the BJP's jitters.

His political mandate has also promised a re-structuring of the tax regime in Delhi as well as putting an end to the extortion and raid racket by the VAT department. He also assured the community that the party would have a single-window clearance system for those wanting to open businesses in Delhi and promised that all transactions would be made online to reduce the interface with the city government.

There will be minimum interference from the government. Our partys policy is not to indulge


in raids, but trust the traders. Our government will see the end of VAT raids and extortion racket and create a business-friendly environ-ment, Kejriwal had told the traders community ahead of the Assembly polls. To add to that, AAP volunteers left no stone unturned either and those belonging to the baniya caste were given the responsibility to campaign and sway voters from their community.

It seems that AAP's promise to abolish the in-spector raj has won over the trading community which has for borne the brunt of surprise raids on them by different departments time and again.

"At the end, everybody wants an honest face and Kejriwal scores on that front," Himanshu Bansal, a banker in Delhi who has been rooting for Kejriwal told Firstpost. He further added that the trading community has been rather impatient with the central government. " BJP promised heaps in its manifesto but on the ground nothing has improved. Secondly, Bedi may be a clean and honest person too, but Ke-jriwal has won our hearts by showing resolve to address local issues first," he said.

"AAP is the only party talking with sense and purpose. Modi conducted so many rallies but did not touch a chord with us in Delhi. AAP has spoken about development, water, power, electricity . I am a business man and VAT sim-plification and a corruption-free society is key. Water and electricity affect the workers in my factory, which in turn affects me," said Vinay Bajoria, a businessman based out of Okhla who also voted for AAP.

Manoj Agarwal, a businessman from Rohini echoed Bajoria's views. " At the central level, I still prefer the BJP government, but when it comes to state elections, Arvind Kejriwal has my vote purely because he is an academic and and a mechanical engineer and our country needs people like him because he is a doer, unlike the rest of the politicians who are just chasing power," he told Firstpost.

In other words, it is felt that Kejriwal, under-stands the nitty-gritty of finance and corporate manoeuvres better than many other politicians, and that is enough for the trading class to give the party a second chance.

As this Economic Times article points out, "Kejriwal studiously cultivated his middle class base by carefully avoiding a Dalit messiah or a minority protector image. Despite Dalits being his core vote bank, Kejriwal has not made any special casteist appeal or extra promises for the homeless, jobless, insecure Dalits. Similarly, Ke-jriwal did not make a high profile visit to Trilok-puri after the riots or to any of the churches that were vandalised. He sort of silently conveyed to his mass base that he will take special care to protect the interests of the Dalits and the mi-norities."

So, while the slum dwellers and Muslims have gravitated towards the Aam Aadmi Party, leav-ing the Congress high and dry, the AAP has also managed to wrench from the BJP many votes of the business community with its promises to end extortion and petty corruption.


Election mystery: How did Delhi exit polls completely miss the AAP tsunami?


P sephology is an inexact science, espe-cially in a diverse voter population like that of India. Even so, one has to wonder whether all is right with the opinion polling industry where no one got it right this time in Delhi except the broad point of a clear win for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

While one can leave pre-election opinion polls out of the analysis, since voter intent can change by voting day, the fact that even the exit polls got it all wrong is worrying. Exit polls should normally be more accurate, since they seek to measure actual voter behaviour, not voter intent.

The exit polls this time estimated AAPs seat tally from a high of 53 seats by India News- Axis to a low of 31-39 at the bottom end by CVoter. Others predicted seats in the mid-range - 48 (News 24-Chanakya), 43 (IT-Cicero), and 39 (ABP News-Nielsen).

The best effort by India News-Axis was still a huge 25 percent off from the actual number of seats the party won (67). It is significant that an exit poll was not able to make better predictions even in a mostly two-horse race.

Of course, it can be argued that the projection of seats from vote shares can be tricky in a first-

past-the-post system, but did they even get it right on the vote share front?

Absolutely not. Axis gave it the best shot and gave AAP 49 percent of the vote which is still more than 10 percent off from the real AAP vote share of 54.3 percent. A 10-11 percent margin of error is far, far beyond any reasonable range of acceptability in an exit poll. It makes no sense to poll with this kind of margin of actual error. You can get a reasonable estimate of which way the wind is blowing merely by talking to cabbies and chaiwalas which is what visiting journos tend to do during election time. That there was such a wide margin of error in a largely two-horse race seems scandalous.

This is not to suggest that some of the pollsters may have fiddled with the figures to get the answers their clients were seeking, but it does raise questions about their methodology, and whether they are missing something else.

It is also possible to argue that in wave elec-tions, pollsters cant really get the final seat tally right, but this is only partly valid. In Delhi, they got even the vote shares badly wrong, remem-ber?

One also wonders if pollsters ought to take something more into account beyond what peo-ple are actually telling them.

For example, even as early as September 2014 five months before the actual polling day in February 2015, when Arvind Kejriwal was presumed to be hors de combat India Today's Mood of Delhi poll was showing him as the preferred choice for CM of Delhi even while vot-ers also saying that they would vote BJP. This dichotomy was never explained. In November, when the PM and Amit Shah were campaigning in J&K and Jharkhand, another poll showed the same results: Kejriwal for CM, BJP for win.


If pollsters wanted Kejriwal as CM, and were simultaneously indicating a pro-BJP voting intent, what were they really saying? That they would vote BJP if they gave them a leader like Kejriwal? Or that their heart wanted Kejriwal, even though their reason told them the BJP would win anyway?

Many polls also indicated that Delhi wanted Kejriwal as CM and Modi as PM as far back as 2013 December and early 2014. This signal too got drowned out in the noise.

The voter, in a sense, was sending clear signals, but neither the pollsters nor the media picked it up.

There is also the other issue: from poll to poll, the Congress appeared to be getting squeezed out. How come no one suggested which way this vote would swing finally?

Psephology clearly is much art as science. The differing signals on leadership, actual party preference, and estimating which way voters would swing if their own preferred first choice party didnt look like winning clearly need to be combined better to give us more credible final results.

Seats and vote shares cannot be predicted only by relying on the answer to the main question: will you vote BJP, AAP or Congress? The voters real answer may often be: it depends.

In Kashmir, for instance, the mere fact that the BJP was seeking power in the Valley brought out more voters to the booths in order to stop it. They voted for parties they thought would be best placed to keep the BJP out of the Valley. In Delhi, once Congress looked like a loser, the ultimate result depended on figuring out how many will stay loyal to the party on voting day, and how many will swing towards AAP. This is what the pollsters failed to do.


Landslide victory in Delhi: Heres why AAPs humility after victory is touching

Chandrakant Naidu, February 11, 2015

S uch victories could cause vertigo. AAP leaders are sensibly guarding against los-ing equanimity on touching such dizzying heights. Arvind Kejriwal was the first to use the adjective scary for the unprecedented man-date. This fear is welcome as long as he and his colleagues keep their feet grounded and remain loyal to the guiding principles of the party.

The party has redefined political austerity. It has set new rules the two mainstream parties, the Congress and the BJP, would find hard to follow. During the campaign the AAP apolo-gised to the voters of Delhi for quitting the gov-ernment in just 49 days last year. The party thus harmed the BJP most by subtly highlighting its arrogant and abusive conduct. Apologies have become unknown to the BJPs new dispensation under Narendra Modi- Amit Shah.

Others may have forgotten the slaps Kejriwal took for abdicating Delhi a year ago. Kejriwal apparently did not. Instead of losing cool Kejri-wal and his colleagues steadfastly began recon-necting with the Delhi voters. The AAP deserves praise for acknowledging and appreciating the anger that resulted in violent reactions. The auto rickshaw pliers who were tired of extortion by policemen were upset by Kejriwals deser-tion. So were the others of that socio-economic strata.

The party picked up the thread after the Lok Sabha jolt and got down to meeting people in lanes and by-lanes. This simple trick of door-to-door campaign for man to man connect was in striking contrast to BJPs ad blitz, high pro-file road shows, hours of airtime on electronic media. Keriwal got back the warmth he offered to lower middle class and marginalised people in downtown Delhi. He came to be seen and ac-cepted as one of them.

He presented a complete contrast from the haughty counterparts the BJP and the Congress that had lost connect. Despite having been at the helm in Delhi and the nation for 15 years the Congress could not win back the voters heart. After scoring a nought in the Lok Sabha elec-tions it repeated the showing in the assembly elections and was content to draw vicarious pleasure from BJPs dismal performance.

The AAP has learnt from own as well as from others' mistakes. Kejriwal has brought a whiff of fresh air by candidly acknowledging the enormi-ty of the task in the wake of such mandate. His colleague repeatedly asked the party supporters not to go overboard in revelries as the actual celebrations should start when the party deliv-ers on promises.

The BJPs reaction to the Lok Sabha results in Delhi was not so humble. It had a support in 60 out of the 70 assembly segments. The Delhi MPs took just eight months to squander that mandate. The party strayed away from with its constituents and also started losing touch with own cadre. People like Arun Jaitley with no electoral victories to their credit directed the election campaigns. Kirti Azad the party MP was among the first to criticise the leadership without mincing words. He did not name Jait-ley or party president Amit Shah, but drove the message home referring to the changing culture in the party.


People in Delhi have seen a much sober face of the BJP even during the NDA rule. The party now gives the impression of being power drunk. Amit Shah scoffing at all exit poll sur-veys and insisting that the party would still win two thirds majority presented an anti-pole to suave Kejriwals, Manish Sisodia or Yogendra Yadav. Non-Muslims and fair-minded orthodox Hindus also were dismayed at the Love Jihad and ghar-wapsi moves and more-children calls while of Prime Minister Narendra Modi pur-sued a dubiously half- hearted and full-throated secularism.

Through the campaign Kejriwal astutely spurned Bukhari's overtures to avoid counter-polarisation and after the victory showed enough magnanimity to announce that the leader of opposition will be there regardless of the strength on those benches. In a way it would have been poetic justice for the BJP which de-nied the Congress post of leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha. With such little experience in governance the new ruling party will virtu-ally have no bridle in the form of opposition. Leaders like Prashant Bhushan, Rajmohan Gandhi Yogendra Yadav have promised to build some mechanism to put all important decisions through public scanner.

This historic mandate should worry the elector-ate as much as it scares the AAP. People have seen the Janata Party frittering away a massive mandate in just 18 months in the 70s and then Rajiv Gandhi throwing away a bigger vote in just two years in the eighties.

The clock has already started ticking for the AAP.


What AAPs victory means for BJP and Congress


Congress rout in Delhi: Will Rahul Gandhi own responsibility now?

Sanjeev Singh, February 10, 2015

T hough the focus of the Delhi elections has been the rout of the BJP and the AAP making this election look like a walk in the park, the decimation of Congress is a devel-opment that should not be overlooked.

Its easy to look for many reasons why the Con-gress has failed to open its account this elec-tion, but the tough part is looking for answers to a problem that keeps getting complex by the day for the Grand Old Party.

Rahul Gandhi did take a step in the right direc-tion by handing over the reins of Delhi Congress to Ajay Maken and Arvinder Singh Lovely. But that was never going to make any difference to the results, and the Congress was never in the fight in an election dominated between the raw power of BJP (read Modi) and the street power of AAP (read Kejriwal). Lovely backed out of the fight when he withdrew from contesting the Gandhi Nagar seat, while Ajay Maken lost by 51,000 votes in the Sadar Bazar seat.

But what is disturbing is that the Congress vice president went about the election campaign in a listless manner, doing the occasional roadshow and attending a few rallies in erstwhile Congress strongholds. Traditional vote bank of urban poor and minorities have shifted to a viable secular alternative in the AAP, yet the Congress

did nothing to counter it, says V Mathew, Executive Director Centre for Market Research and Social Development.

Congress needs to hit the streets and start afresh, and if Rahul Gandhi has any iota of self respect, he should resign, he adds. While the Gandhi scion has been busy meeting senior leaders asking them for suggestions to prepare the roadmap for the partys revival, nothing concrete has come out of these meetings so far.

Both Maken and Lovely have sent their resigna-tions to Congress president, but they are unlike-ly to be accepted. The party cadre remains down and out and the final nail in the coffin has been the shifting of the Muslim vote en bloc behind the AAP. The systematic inroads made by the AAP in Congress traditional bastion, lower in-come group and Dalits were wooed assiduously while the Congress never prepared any counter strategy.

And as the showdown began for the most bit-ter battle in Delhi, the irrelevance of Congress in a direct fight between BJP and AAP left the minorities with little option but to support the party who was most likely to defeat BJP. Every-one knows Priyanka is the need of the hour, but who will say that and face the partys ire, says a former Congress leader. The way Rahul Ji is running party affairs, more people will desert the party in days to come he confides.

Though Congress leaders can never get enough of saying that the party has seen many adverse situations and has come out a winner, this lat-est result has shown that their time is fast run-ning out. Either Rahul Gandhi hits the dust and grime of electoral politics or makes way for the prodigal daughter to give hope to the workers.


Yogendra Yadav is right, after AAP win, other states will write off PM Modi at their peril

Piyashree Dasgupta, February 10, 2015

A s PM Narendra Modi's staunchest rivals cheered Aam Aadmi Party on from the ring, the latter decided to play the adula-tion down and caution them that Brand Modi is not a spent force yet.

As Modi-hater and Chief Minister of West Ben-gal Mamata Banerjee felicitated Kejriwal and AAP on Twitter, Yogendra Yadav said during a panel discussion on NDTV that the Delhi elec-tion results are not in any way, indication of the fact that Modi doesn't hold sway over voters in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

"I do not agree with opposition leaders who are becoming smug and think that this means that BJP will lose in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Modi has not lost his popularity and it would be com-pletely wrong to think that," he told NDTV.

He argued that that the assumption that the AAP win was more Delhi retorting to BJP, was wrong, saying that Delhi had voted for the Aam Aadmi Party because they had not let the voter out of sight and done intensive groundwork - from meeting voters door-to-door to assuring them that they have their act together this time.

One has to agree with Yadav. Delhi was never a BJP stronghold in the first place, with the 2013 elections leading BJP and AAP to victory on an

anti-Congress vote, rather than a pro-BJP one. Secondly, the AAP had gotten everything from symbolism to temper right this time, playing the much abused victim with elan.

If 'Ab Ki Bar, Modi sarkar' was the perfect catchphrase to carry BJP to victory in the gen-eral elections last year, 'Paanch saal Kejriwal" was perfectly timed for this election and a well-grounded tagline. Accused of being a 'bhagora' and 'AK-49', thanks to his last stint as the CM, 'Paanch Saal Kejriwal' came with the promise that the AAP party chief has learnt from his mistakes and is willing to stick around.

Yadav also added that Narendra Modi was los-ing sight of the sophistication demanded of a Prime Minister, and him resorting to abusing Kejriwal and AAP in the worst possible ways also worked in the benefit of AAP.

However, like Yadav pointed out, other states shouldn't get giddy following AAP's success in Delhi. Mostly because the voting demographic of Delhi and other states are vastly different. Delhi is more cosmopolitan with a fair share of urban voters. It can be safely assumed that a large chunk of Delhi's voters are bound to be of-fended by the offensive Hindutav rhetoric which seems to be on a popularity curve following the BJP's ascension to power. Some of them might have also noticed how the BJP and Narendra Modi has kept eerily calm on the Hindutva forces on a romp at present. They are also the kind of voter to analyse the promises made by Modi as opposed to the ones delivered in the past months he has been in power.

The average Delhi voter is not same as the aver-age voter in a West Bengal or Bihar. The politi-cal alternatives to BJP in these states come with the same mothballed appeal of pots-calling-ket-tles-black and have been guilty of practicing the same divisive politics it accuses BJP of indulg-ing in. For example, Mamata cannot stop pan-


dering to the Muslim population in the state, and neither will the political parties in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Then again, the leaders of these parties - SP, JD(U), TMC - are all considered as chips off the old political block, like the BJP leaders them-selves. They practice the same old school caste, religion specific politics. Basically, the political rhetoric of these parties and that of the BJP is basically indistinguishable.

Also, AAP, unlike say a TMC, comes without its share of corruption-related controversies.

Therefore, it is not safe to claim that Modi will cease to be a cult personality in the rest of India. Because, like it has been proved in the past, Modi plays himself better than most of his po-litical clones.


Delhi defeat means 2015 has to be Modis year of big reforms. Its now or never


T he BJPs stunning defeat in Delhi at the hands of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) should focus Narendra Modis govern-ment less on politics and more on economics.

If the initial focus on winning state assembly elections was unavoidable since they came one after the other after the Lok Sabha elections, Delhi was where Modi and his party president Amit Shah seriously miscalculated. It should mark a turning point in their thinking.

While Shah should obviously take corrective ac-tion on the political front and fix the leadership issues in his party, Modi needs to focus largely on the economy. He cant leave it all to Arun Jaitley, who appears to be a bit of a steady in-crementalist. Elections may be won or lost, but the big election in 2019 will be won or lost only on the basis of his economic performance. 2015 should be the year of big-bang reforms. This is the year to take the big risks politically.

The NDA government has already lost some time in not pushing through the big reforms in its first six months of office the so-called honeymoon period. After Delhi, the honeymoon is clearly over. But even now nothing is lost, if Modi can just focus on legislation and economic performance.

The budget needs to be super-good on the reforms front, and Modi and Arun Jaitley must stake their all to get key legislation through, especially the Land Acquisition Act. Even if they need to agree to some changes insisted on by the Congress or allies, the Act needs to be given top billing. Else, growth itself will slow down.

The second most important legislation involves allowing private mining in coal. An ordinance already allows for this possibility, but this must be liberalised further and legislated quickly. India cant afford a coal monopoly.

The third most important legislation is to en-able privatisation through executive action but there is no such legislation currently in the works. If Modi has to find the resources for growth this year and the next, he can find them only by privatising banks and other non-strategic public sector companies. This needs a critical piece of legislation: an omnibus law that allows government to hold a golden share, with voting rights of 51 percent in certain defined cir-cumstances like a national or economic emer-gency, even if the government divests upto 90 percent of the stock. This golden share concept should be extended to nationalised banks and all public sector organisations. This may need changes in the Bank Nationalisation Act, and various laws relating to the acquisition of public sector oil companies.

What Modi should do is keep a restricted list of public sector companies that will never be disin-vested below 51 percent. I can think of a few like SBI, one or two more big banks, ONGC, Indian Oil, and some defence production companies. Even the railways can ultimately be privatised partially, but that fight can wait for another day.

The 2015-16 budget is the most important one since 1991, and the legislations proposed above are absolutely essential for India to hit a higher growth path.


What Modi needs to remember is this: elec-tions can be lost here or there, but the countrys growth opportunities cannot be repeatedly lost by governments failure to take bold decisions.

India has a positive demographic window for the next decade or two, after which growth will again start to falter as the population ages.

India also has a huge youth population, which is looking for jobs and growth to provide them with hope.

Modis election in 2014 and AAPs spectacular win today in Delhi (10 February) are driven by the same demographics of hope. The young are willing to give parties a huge mandate, in the hope that they can deliver jobs and income en-hancements. Their anger will be palpable if they dont deliver.

This is the message Modi needs to take to heart. He still has more than four years in which to deliver. But he cant do it if he lets 2015 become yet another year of politics and minor reforms.

To be sure, Modi has worked hard on all fronts, including economic reforms (diesel deregula-tion, ending policy paralysis, easing rules for business, etc) but the public perception is that he cares more about political outcomes than economic ones.

In 2015, he needs to reverse this. If he misses this chance, he may lose it forever.


Delhi poll results: AAPs landslide victory show how media misread Modi wave

Lakshmi Chaudhry, February 10, 2015

L ets be honest. The AAP landslide has taken every political pundit by surprise. Even those expecting a BJP loss could not anticipate a washout of this size. While everyone is busy decoding what AAP did right and BJP did wrong, what the Delhi results also reveal is the extent to which the media have misread the Indian voter, and particularly, the Lok Sabha elections, which spawned a number of myths that have been demolished by the Ke-jriwal juggernaut.

Here then are five big mistakes made by the media.

One, there is no Modi voter, or for that matter, Kejriwal voter. In the wake of the Modi wave that swept the 2014 elections, there was wide-spread consensus that he had built a vast base of loyal voters who owed their allegiance to him and not to the BJP.

But what Delhi shows is that the new Indian voter has no use for the L-word. He or she can happily vote for one leader or party in one elec-tion, and just as easily opt for the rival in the other and within the space of 8 months. Sure, Modi as PM is a-okay, so is Kejriwal for CM. No matter how much the PM may try and convince them otherwise.The base the solid voting bloc that a party or

leader can rely on winning as a bare minimum in a given election is shrinking. We are wit-nessing the rise of the independent voter who is driven purely by self-interest, and who will in-creasingly become the decisive factor in Indian elections, much as in the United States. Kejriwal can no more rely on her allegiance than a Modi.

Two, the vote against Congress was not a vote against its left-liberal worldview. There was much self-congratulation amongst right-of-centre pundits who saw the vote for Modi in the parliamentary elections as a resounding rejec-tion of handout politics. Except here is Kejri-wal winning big on his 49-day track record of electricity and water subsidies.

What Is clear is that the conflation of govern-ance and centre-right economics was a bit of wishful thinking. Populism appears to be as popular as ever. Does it mean all of Delhi has turned into a socialist mecca? Not quite. More likely, the Indian voter wants a better life, and is ideologically agnostic about how the govern-ment delivers it. If free market can create better paid jobs and a better life, thats just peachy. But if subsidies can keep those hideously high bijli bills under control, hooray to that!

Talking heads can afford the luxury of ideology. The aam aadmi is driven mostly by his wallet.

Three, polarisation isnt a brilliant electoral weapon but a limited strategy that delivers diminishing returns. The papers will filled with paeans to Amit Shahs electoral genius in the wake of the LS elections. 2014 was supposed to have been a realigning election, with reverse polarisation effectively breaking the Dalit-Muslim alliance in UP and Bihar. (All this while experts were touting Modis ability to rise above identity politics.)

As it turns out, the reverse polarisation card only works in an already polarised environment


like Uttar Pradesh. In other parts of the coun-try, amping up the religious rhetoric a la Sadhvi Jyoti makes the natives restless and anxious as did the Dalit-Muslim conflict engineered in Trilokpuri. No one needs a riot when there are jobs to be done and bills to be paid.

The strategy also falls flat when the other side anticipates the play, and refuses to take the bait. Unlike Sonia, Kejriwal didnt make the election about secularism despite the tempting lure of church attacks, ghar wapsi etc -- but stuck to his bijli-paani playbook. As the Delhi elec-tions show, the Indian voter has risen far higher above identity politics than Modi himself.

Four, the impatient voter celebrated by the media is , in fact, the dangerously fickle voter. While the sheer size of the Kejriwal wave is larger than the Modi tsunami -- albeit in a pond called Delhi it shares many of the same char-acteristics, including the most alarming one: A candidate whose victory matches the size of his promises. Is it really good for democracy to have an electorate that blindly votes for the candidate who promises the most? And quickly abandons the leader who cant deliver immedi-ate results?

Its all very well to say there is no comparison between a national and a state election, but a dramatic fall in vote share from 46.63 % in 2014 to 32.2 % is still notable. BJP won 57 out of the 70 constituencies in the LS polls. The result is almost an exact reversal, delivered less than a year later. Dilli point-black refused to go into the future Modi ke saath.

This is BJPs defeat and also Modis. Because when he campaigned for the Lok Sabha polls, he sold a dream of Achhe Din (Good Days) to the voters. Many of us fell for that promise. However, in last eight months since he became the Prime Minister he has gone back on many promises including the promise of reining in the corruption, bringing back the black money. This had led to the party and Modi losing their cred-ibility which is seen in todays result, said Anna Hazare when he emerged to comment on AAPs victory.

This kind of expectation from a government that was elected less than a year ago is astound-ing. Despite all the second-guessing about 10 lakh suits, the BJP government has not com-mitted any gargantuan errors either in Delhi or elsewhere that would justify such an ignomini-ous defeat (even if they were perceived as the incumbent party by default). The AAP landslide is driven by the same junoon that propelled Modi into power. That exaggerated hope leads inevitably to exaggerated disillusionment. The BJP rout will undoubtedly hearten Modi critics but it should offer little comfort to Kejriwal who is likely to feel the brunt of all that impatience very soon.


Stop giving gyaan, we arent idiots: Aam aadmis royal snub to BJP in Delhi polls

Akshaya Mishra, February 10, 2015

A s defeats go, this has to be the most comprehensive and the most humiliat-ing for the BJP. It has lost the classes and the masses in Delhi. Neither the politics of communal polarization and caste games nor the grand rhetoric on development worked. All those dirty and below the belt attacks havent worked either. Its leadership, upon which the party prided itself, has just been delivered the royal snub by the people.

In India people vote mostly to punish the in-cumbent government. Bigger the public anger, worse is the defeat. In Delhi the BJP was in power by default. From the reaction across the board post the results, from both voters and non-voters, it is evident that most wanted the BJP to lose more than the AAP to win. The party would be loathe to admit this, but this indeed was a referendum on the performance of the central government and Prime Minister Naren-dra Modi.

The magnitude of the BJPs defeat would take time to sink in, but the message is unambigu-ous. The partys grace period has ended. People have sent it a curt reminder: stop giving gyaan, we are not idiots. You are in because we wanted a hopelessly corrupt and pathetic UPA to go. You start delivering or elseIt depends how the BJP recalibrates its strategy from here on. But it

has to remember a ruling party has to be much more than an election-winning machine.

Election defeats and wins as well are rarely due to one singular factor - a combination of sev-eral factors, both local and external, shape an electoral verdict. The wave elections, which are getting more frequent across the country now, blur all traditional calculations and perceived equations, including that of caste, class and identity. The Delhi verdict reveals the frustra-tion of people goes much beyond the local. It has dimensions that deeply involve the central government too.The public perception is slowly turning against the BJP. This election defeat may not harm it much, but it certainly sends out the warning message that henceforth all electoral battles will be on a footing of equality with other parties. It has squandered the popular goodwill that has been tilting contests in its favour so far.

So how did the BJP lose the way it did? Here are some reasons.

1. Theres a growing perception that the govern-ment at the centre is a hopelessly attention-seeking one. It has got into the habit of trying to impress too much. This is overbearing but would still be fine if it matched achievements on the ground. Seven months on and the gap be-tween promise and delivery remains poor. This has not stopped the party from making every small development a big media event. People can see through this.

2. The leader of the government is increasing coming across as a self-obsessed individual busy proving to the world his personal popularity. He wants to be counted among the big league of national icons too soon. That would not be a problem if the effort was subtle and nuanced, and theres substance to match. Nothing has been subtle about him so far a dress with ones name written all over does not particularly


convey the right signals and his promises are yet to materilise on the ground.

3. The underclass has hit back in Delhi. If it feels alienated under the current dispensation the BJP has to blame its own outlook towards the economy or at least the message it has been conveying. It, egged on by cheerleaders in the expert brotherhood, has been following an economic policy that is cynical as well as per-verse. To be fair, both Prime Minister Modi and the BJP have been sober and balanced in their views on the economy but the government is be-ing seen increasingly as anti-poor and pro-rich. The backlash was expected at some point. As the government pushes ahead with its economic agenda, the coming days would be interesting.

4. The victory of 2014, was never a victory for the Hindutva ideology. The BJP was a purely secular choice. They did not vote the RSS and its affiliates into power. But the latter took the mandate as license to Hinduise the country. The normal Hindu society abhors social dishar-mony. Thus it does not approve of burning of churches and attacks on Muslims. The govern-ment's silence on the activities of the Hindutva forces has only made it look as a partner in crime.

Dictatorial control over a democratic political party does not work, it can be counterproduc-tive. Victory alone cannot justify shabby treat-ment to party workers by way of induction of outsiders. The Kiran Bedi move was a disaster and this was done to show the local leadership their place. A rebellion was waiting to happen and it was a passive one in Delhi. The results show not even the faithful stood by the party. Never undervalue your own, should be the les-son for the party. They can and will strike back. If the organization decides to go apathetic, the leadership, howsoever charismatic can do little.

The BJP promised good governance. But mat-ters other than governance have been dominat-ing the public consciousness ever since it came to power. Complacent after a series of assembly victories, perhaps the party ignored these. After the Delhi defeat it cannot be afford to do so. The final message it can take from the elections: never underestimate the common man.


Modi defeated Modi in Delhi polls: He cannot avoid blame for BJPs rout


N arendra Modi has a problem on his hands. The initials of the problem are not AK, suffixed with any number (49 or 67), but NM. Modi, in some ways, is his own worst enemy.

There are two reasons for this. One stems from the zero difference between Modi 2014 and Modi 2015. We saw an extraordinary politician rise before our eyes between December 2012 and May 2014, and a capable Prime Minister between May and December 2014. The Modi we saw in January-February 2015 was the same man, the same communicator, the same power-ful voice. But we had seen him, heard him, and were wowed by him before. We expected more.

The question in the Delhi voters mind apart from solutions to civic problems - was: what could Modi offer her over and above what he had offered to India over the last two years? What walk could he offer over the talk?

The answer is zilch. As Santosh Desai wrote in The Times of India: "Modi's challenge today is that his biggest opponent is none other than the memory of Modi last year. Last year he was measured against Rahul Gandhi and Manmo-han Singh and he towered over them in word, gesture and strength. Today he is measured against that Narendra Modi, and (one) finds

that even when he is equal to the comparison, he can offer nothing very new."

On the other hand, AK-67 was certainly an im-proved version from AK-49, and that made all the difference.

The second reason why I see Modi as his own worst enemy runs deeper. Here I can only speculate and ask questions that only Modi and people close to him can answer. But answer they must to themselves.

The primary question I would ask is this: how self-aware is Modi? Other questions flow from this. Does he know who his real friends and real enemies are? Does he know the difference between an uncritical bhakt and a thinking well-wisher? Does he understand the gap between his own words and deeds that needs to be con-stantly monitored and bridged? Why is he able to trust no one, or very few people? Is he able to forgive people for their mistakes? Is he able to forgive himself for his blunders, learn from them, and move on? Is he aware of his own in-securities and able to deal with them?

The reason I raise the question of self-aware-ness is because Modi often seems blissfully unaware of the impression he may be creating, despite a carefully created public persona. What was he thinking when he wore an expensive suit with his name embroidered on it? Why did he need to make a point about his alleged chem-istry with Barack Obama? Obamas mild put-downs about the need for secularism in India not once, but twice in less than a month show that he may be as wary of Modi as he was before May 2014. What he did by reaching out to Modi after his election victory was to correct a serious foreign policy lapse over the previous five years, where the US, driven by evangeli-cal groups, treated him like a pariah. It was a foolish thing to do to an elected state CM, leave alone a future PM. I doubt there was any real


chemistry between them and Modi did not seem aware of the possibility that Obama was merely being well-mannered by giving him a hug or not being offended by being called Barack and not President Obama. Modi seemed more eager to claim chemistry and closeness with Obama that what may actually exist between them.

The point I am driving at by bringing up these elementary questions of self-awareness is sim-ple: losing Delhi is less of a problem than an unwillingness or inability to learn from it. Only a self-aware person can learn from his mis-takes. Modi should be asking himself: how did I fail to see what was going on in Delhi when I was sitting right there? Why did Amit Shah (or others in the party) not tell me Arvind Kejriwal was streets ahead of us in the battle for hearts and minds? Were my victories in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu the result of something more than just my personal cha-risma and development promises? Why did those same strengths not work in Delhi? Why is the media celebrating my party's defeat when I have worked 18 hours a day to set things right in government and the PMO? Why are my own political allies trying to rejoice over my defeat?

You can put your own answers (and Modi his) against these questions to explain why BJP lost in Delhi and why Kejriwal won. However, I can bet one thing: in all these questions, Kejriwal will probably have scored higher on self-aware-ness than Modi. And that may have made all the difference to the Delhi outcome.

To be sure, Modi has shown an infinite capacity to reinvent himself in the past he has come a long way from 2002. The question is whether he has come a long way from 2014. 2015 is not 2014. The challenges are completely different, thanks to his own terrific success in wooing the electorate in 2014. That has raised expectations and benchmarks.

2015 is when Modi will have to ask harder ques-tions of himself than of the people who work for him.

For example, how is his talk of federalism go-ing to be taken at face value if he does not give Kejriwal what he wants: full statehood for Delhi, control of the police force, running the Delhi

Development Authority, and his own version of the Jan Lokpal Bill? Constitutionally, Modi need not do any of these things, but if he is a true believer in federalism he cannot deny these powers to the elected government in Delhi. It is, at least, possible to arrive at a compromise on these issues, if not giving in totally to what Kejriwal demands.

Secondly, Modi now needs to be more like Va-jpayee a man he professes to admire while dealing with ministry colleagues and allies. It makes no sense to talk empowerment in general, and still expect his ministers to clear everything with him. It was all right to central-ise powers at the start of the new government (when ways of working had to be changed), but not any more. His senior ministers need to be empowered to take decisions. He can always keep control, by holding them accountable for their promises and performance. If he does not do this, not only will he find resentment brew-ing, but it will lead to policy paralysis of a dif-ferent kind with all things coming to him for a decision. Even with an 18-hour workday, no human being not even one with Modis super-human work habits can do justice to so many difficult decisions.

Modi made two good moves late last year by bringing in Manohar Parrikar and Suresh Prab-hu to his ministry. They added heft in a cabinet seen as lacking serious talent beyond Arun Jait-ley, Sushma Swaraj, Nitin Gadkari and Rajnath Singh. But it is inexplicable why an extraor-dinarily capable man like Arun Shourie was kept out. He can be Modis biggest asset in any ministry. Shourie is the true progenitor of the telecom revolution, the man who untangled the wires of crony capitalism and made the telecom policy work. He is the man who made disinvest-ment and privatisation a reality.

Third, Modi needs to deal with his allies directly using his personal political capital. Vajpayee was able to run an unwieldy coalition largely through the power of personality and his stat-ure. Modi is not Vajpayee, but his prestige and powers are no less. A direct approach to allies whether it is the estranged Shiv Sena or the more amenable allies in Andhra Pradesh and elsewhere will work wonders for his agenda of reforms. Without this, they will be either be


sulking in silence or trying to trip him up at every juncture.

Fourth, Modi has to build new leaders in the states. If he does not do that, the Kejriwals of the world will easily defeat his party. For ex-ample, in Punjab his party is seriously compro-mised and the Akalis too are looking vulnerable and unhappy with the BJP. In Mumbai, AAP will find exactly the same traction as it did in Delhi for the Sena-BJP-run corporation has simply failed to deliver.

In Bihar, Modi has a leader in Sushil Modi, but elsewhere he needs younger leaders who will have to court the same demographic by being physically in touch with the electorate.

The right way to reinvent NaMo is to do two things: first, accept direct responsibility for the Delhi defeat, and work on true devolution of powers in his own ministry, in his party, and with the states that are not ruled by his party. He could begin with Kejriwal.


Five mistakes of Kiran Bedis life: Why BJP was routed in Delhi

Debobrat Ghose, February 11, 2015

K iran Bedis political career seems to have ended even before it could take off. Perhaps it wont make much of a dif-ference to her she can dissociate herself from politics and get on with social work. What in-trigues many though is how everything could go against her. She is certainly no lightweight when it comes to public life. She has a strong brand value, is the countrys first woman IPS officer, she is a Magsaysay award winner and was one of the leading figures in the Anna Hazare move-ment. So what went wrong?

Leadership requires a different set of skills. Her achievements can only be a value addition to her leadership skills, its never the other way round, say political analysts. They point out to five mistakes that saw her presiding over the shameful rout of the BJP in the assembly polls.

Failure to connect:According to political analysts, Bedis commu-nication and body language during her rallies reeked of arrogance. Her comment on Kejriwal not being invited on Republic Day I think he (Kejriwal) is playing sob sob. I think he must grow up drew a lot of criticism in the media and later became counter-productive for the party.

By taking a U-turn on her earlier statements (on Twitter in 2012 & 2013) against Narendra Modi,

and then appreciating him after joining the BJP, dented her credibility. This is nothing but op-portunism and one cant fool voters now-a-days. People understand everything, said an analyst.

According to a party insider, No one openly opposed her as it was the decision of the PM to project her as a CM candidate, but there was an undercurrent of rebellion in the party. She failed to connect both with the party cadre and the masses.

Even after the massive electoral drubbing, Bedi courted controversy by telling the media on Tuesday, It was not my lossit was BJPs defeat.

Poor man-management skills:In contrast to the Aam Aadmi Party convener Arvind Kejriwal, Bedi failed to give a positive leadership to the Delhi BJP. Immediately after joining the party, she called a couple of MPs for tea to her place. She reportedly didnt wait for the Union minister Dr Harsh Vardhan, who was 10 minutes late to reach her residence.

Instead of calling the senior party leaders, she should have gone to them and sought their support. She had already considered herself as Delhi CM and this became apparent during her campaigns. She failed to provide a positive lead-ership to the party like Modi ji did during Lok Sabha polls, remarked a senior BJP member on anonymity.

A touch of conceit:According to the voters who attended her ral-lies, these were negative and full of conceit.

Kejriwal directly spoke on our problems, and what the AAP would do if they came to power. Unlike her, there was no acrimony in his speech. Bedi sounded more like a cop than a would-be CM, remarked Syed Kaiser of Ambedkar Nagar.


Bedi had thought that slamming Kejriwal would help her in wooing voters, but it didnt happen. I have 40 years of administrative experience and that other man (Kejriwal) who is spread-ing lies has just five years of experience. He is 'bhagoda' and will run away again," she had said while campaigning in Kirari constituency of North-West Delhi. She described Kejriwals influence as highly toxic and negative.

On the contrary, Kejriwal and team tactically avoided calling names in general.

Even within the party, members feel that by campaigning in other constituencies, Bedi mini-mized the winning possibility of the BJP. She should have confined to her own constituency. Her initial speeches caused immense damage to the BJP and the poll result confirmed it. During poll rallies, she used to move as a commander rather than a team leader, a state BJP volun-teer remarked.

I, me, myself:Right from the party men to the voters, people across the constituencies felt that she gave im-mense importance to self and almost on every occasion, she spoke about her own achieve-ments. Associating herself with the BJPs de-velopment agenda, she said, My name is now Vikas Bedi.While addressing a rally at Ambedkar Nagar in South Delhi, she said, If I become the chief minister and any policemen ask for money, you should ask them that when...my CM has never asked for money, so how could you demand money?"Its like playing your own trumpet. In her com-munication she tried to give a message that she was an epitome of honesty and integrity. This back-fired, added Kaisar.Bad timing:Bedi was brought into the partys fold hardly

three weeks before the Delhi polls. Immediately after joining the party, her naming as the CM candidate, didnt go down well with the leaders and the members of Delhi BJP; especially by those who had been working for the party for decades.

To make her a winning candidate, she was made to contest from the safe assembly seat of Krish-na Nagar, from where Union minister Dr Harsh Vardhan had been winning since 1993.

First, the locals couldnt accept the partys decision of replacing Dr Harsh Vardhan from this seat, who was also demoted in the Cabinet. Second, Kiran Bedi was an outsider and the vot-ers wanted someone local. She failed to connect with the locals and ultimately she lost this bat-tle, said Virender Raheja, a local resident.

Senior journalist and columnist Vir Sanghvi had tweeted: Kiran Bedi really is her own worst en-emy. Does making her CM candidate still seem like a masterstroke?

The Delhi poll result gave the answer.


Beware a Congress-mukt Bharat: AAP is not the BJP counter that India needs

Hasan Suroor, February 11, 2015

W hile Hosanas have deservedly been raining on the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) after its incredible perform-ance in the Delhi elections, and the BJP is being comforted by its dazed and distraught support-ers, the Congress is mourning alone in what is arguably its worst moment of shame, after hav-ing failed to win a single seat.

No tears are being shed for the party's humili-ation that saw it wiped out in area after area where it had held sway until so recently.

Indeed, if anything, there's a barely concealed sadistic glee even among its former supporters, who are suggesting that the party it had it com-ing, and that it is the architect of its own mis-fortunes. Nobody seems to wish to waste their breath even discussing it.

"What's there to discuss? Well, its is gone, it's gone. Period," is a general reaction.

Yet, beyond the headlines about AAP victory and BJP defeat, the real story of the Delhi elections is where it leaves the Congress. Is it the beginning of the end for India's Grand Old Party? And should we be simply watching while it is dying on its feet even if it only has itself to blame for its shambolic state?

In recent months, there has been enough post-mortem of the causes of Congress decline. I'll come to that later.

First, the more pressing question of the longer-term implications of the Congress collapse--a situation in which a 135-year-old party--the country's only truly national mass political organisation, a broad church with a history of inclusiveness--ceases to exist.

Rajni Kothari, the great political scientist, described the Congress as the authoritative spokesman of the nation as well as an affirmed agent of criticism and change, as historian Ramchandra Guha recalled in an article.

The reasons for Congress hegemony, Guha pointed out, included the fact that it was a broad church, containing many shades of opin-ion within it. It had a strong presence in all states of the Union".

The Congress imprint was so substantial that even its rivals had to work within the ideologi-cal parameters set by the party and its leaders. Thus, most parties who opposed the Congress still upheld welfarism, religious pluralism, and non-alignment in foreign policy", he wrote but, crucially, hastened to remind us that this was before the Congress converted itself into a fam-ily firm" triggering its decline.

So, what happens when such a force collapses without there being a credible alternative in place?

The answer doesn't require much imagination or great insight into how politics works. There's only one thing that can happen in such a situa-tion: a scramble among all manner of wannabes to fill the vacuum caused by its destruction. Since politics abhors a vacuum. All it needs for any group to get a foothold is just about enough chutzpah and gumption --with a please-all


agenda thrown in as bait to voters. Damn ideol-ogy or political vision.In fact, we have already seen how the political scene has fragmented ever since the Congress decline began way back in the 1970s. The space vacated by it has been filled by mostly lumpen pretenders preening on the back of sectarian policies.

Both the Sangh and Janata parivars --one Hindu exclusivist, and the other casteist --are products of this anti-Congress churning. And a fat lot of good they have done to the country which has become a boiling cauldron of divisive passions. So much so that the prime minister's best friend "Barack" felt compelled to issue a warning.

The latest to walk into this Congress-created vacuum is AAP whose ideological coherence is about as credible as the Sangh and Janata parivars claim to be inclusive. Ive consist-ently questioned AAPs ability to be a serious long-distance runner, and I stick to it despite its brave showing in Delhi.

AAP is all tactics, slogans and a lot of hot air. It has no clearly thought out programme, no road-map, and no proper organisation at the grass-roots. It is essentially a protest group which has converted itself into a political party to tap into public disillusionment with mainstream parties. And it feeds on negativity with floating voters as its support base.

None of this is the hallmark of a credible na-tional alternative to a party which, for all its sins, has a cogent philosophy and a worldview; a mass base even if it has been neglected and allowed to rust; and an instinctive feel for the inherent cultural diversity of this country.

This is where Muslims should worry whether their visceral anti-Congressism, which trans-lates into 'anyone but Congress' strategy is such a good idea. No doubt, the Congress' record on secularism is dire, but is there any other nation-al party which has a better record?

Indeed, the BJP the only other national party --doesnt even like the idea of secularism and would be happy drop the term from the con-stitution if it had its way. Have Muslims ever

contemplated what would it have been like liv-ing in a theocratic Hindu state like the one that the BJPs parent organisation, the RSS, wishes to impose on India?

Its important to point out that it is not as if Muslims have been innocent victims of the Con-

gresss 'electoral secularism', a term used by a former Muslim MP to reject the Congress.If the Congress was able to make use of Muslims in the name of secularism it was because the Muslim leadership was willing to play ball with it. There was a quid pro quo between Muslim leaders and the Congress whereby in return for delivering Muslim votes they were rewarded with plum jobs, party tickets and nominations to the Rajya Sabha.

Granted, Muslims have had reason to feel let down by the Congress but in their desire to spite it, let them not cut off their own nose.

Now, to the catalogue of Congress sins: corrup-tion, mid governance, arrogance, dynastic rule and abuse of the idea of secularism which alien-ated both Muslims and Hindus.

There are elements of truth to all this, but the popular narrative of an irredeemably corrupt, dysfunctional, dynastic monster from which the country must be liberated (BJP's "Congress-mukt" Bharat) is a disingenuous caricature of a party which may have gone out of steam for now but has a history of some very solid achieve-ment. Achievements on which the foundation of modern India stands.

In a more historically conscious society this


would have been seen as an attempt at rewrit-ing history but this being India, we are more in the realm of myth making than getting history right.

However, the point is not to enumerate Con-gress party's achievements or defend its poli-cies.

Admittedly, it got things wrong once too often but it has been duly punished for it. Before we throw out the baby with the bathtub lets ponder over its implications. Is handing over the coun-

trys political destiny to a combination of divi-sive and pop-up 'secular' forces with no national opposition to check them a good idea?

Think about it.


AAP wins but it wont be an easy ride


AAP sweeps Delhi by its feet, but BJP and Modi wont make life easy for Kejriwal

S Murlidharan, February 10, 2015

A AP's victory in Delhi Assembly elections will definitely catapult the fledgling party into the national center stage with non-Congress parties likely to woo it assiduous-ly to take on the BJP both at the national and the state level. However, AAPs real strength will be challenged soon in days to come. The BJP, smarting from the defeat, will try its best to wreck the AAP government on every front, which shouldnt be too difficult given the glori-fied municipality status of the Delhi govern-ment.

The BJP government in Haryana will definitely up the ante and refuse to give water to Delhi on some pretext or the other. Delhi produces prac-tically nothing except services and the notable exceptions of pollution and noise. It is depend-ent on other states for its supply of water, pow-er, vegetables and just about everything needed in the humdrum of daily life.

Full statehood to Delhi is now certainly not on the cards because doing that under the AAP regime would be suicidal for the BJP. BJP is already being pilloried for committing several blunders, including not holding the Delhi polls while still flush from the Lok Sabha victory, and it is not likely to commit one more by offering a prize that would make t

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