Following lives from birth and through the adult years Shirley Dex, Erzsébet Bukodi, Heather Joshi Institute of Education GeNet Seminar

following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk

Shirley Dex, Erzsébet Bukodi, Heather Joshi

Institute of Education

GeNet Seminar

London, 8 December 2009

The ups and downs of men’s and women’s careers


Against the background of aggregate changes

40 years of rises in women’s participation in paid employment.

A large rise in women employed in the public sector. A rise in women in professional and associate

profession occupations. Gradual falls in men’s employment rates. Improvements in hourly pay ratio of women to men.


This project was about:

Examining successive cohorts of women’s and men’s career trajectories (across individuals’ life stages and across birth cohort/generations)

We set out to see whether things that hindered gender equality in earlier generations

have gradually disappeared; And how far men’s and women’s career trajectories have moved

towards equality by 21st century

Has it been a case of onwards and upwards for women?


Workforce percent in employment 16-59/65, 1971- 2008, UK

50556065707580859095

100

Males Females


Percents of selected occupational groups, 1997-2008 WOMEN

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200720072008

Professional

Admin & secretarial

Personal services

Ass professionals

Elementary


Percents of selected occupational groups, 1997-2008 MEN

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200720072008

Professional

Admin & secretarial

Personal services

Ass professionals

Elementary


UK workforce jobs, 1978-2008 - FEMALES (thousands)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Manufacturing

Distribution/hotels

Finance/business services

Ed/health/pub adm.


UK workforce jobs, 1978-2008 - MALES (thousands)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Manufacturing

Distribution/hotels

Finance/business services

Ed/health/pub adm.


Ratio of women’s median hourly earnings to those of male full-time employees

1972-2004, by hours worked

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Ratio of median hourly earnings (women : men)

Female full-time (NES) Female part-time (NES)

Female full-time (ASHE) Female part-time (ASHE)


Using large-scale nationally representative data from British Birth Cohort Studies

MRC National Survey of Health and Development, born 1946.

The National Child Development Study, born 1958

The British Cohort Study, born 1970

The Millennium Birth Cohort children’s mothers.


Elements of career trajectories to examine

First occupations, entries into paid work Overall progression from first occupation, up to

age 40 Upward and downward moves Focus on key juncture for women - childbirth:

Part-time work after childbirth and occupational downgrading.


Story 1. Not simply onwards and upwards

Highly educated women born in 1946 who made careers entered better jobs than men, and than subsequent generations of women.

[SLIDE] Labour market conditions have influenced some

generations more than others and left their mark, for example on: Entry jobs of 1970 cohort – very high unemployment at

outset. early career of men born 1958, double digit U rates.


Mean occupational earnings scores in first jobs

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1946 1958 1970

Men Women never worked part-time


Occupational attainment over age, (ranking by pay) MEN WOMEN


Changes between cohorts - women

The effects of entering at the lowest levels was worse for women in the 1970 cohort compared with the 1958 cohort. [SLIDE]

Women born in 1970 entering in labour market had compared with women born in 1958:

Higher proportions in the lowest jobs Lower chances of mobility out of these jobs Higher chances of downward mobility once

they got out of the bottom occupations


Lowest paid occupations after leaving school

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Women Men Women Men

Cohort-1958 Cohort-1970

1st (lowest)

2nd

3rd

4th

5th (highest)


Story 2. First jobs still in different sectors

Women continuing, after leaving FT education, to enter occupations that have lower wages than men.[SLIDE]

However, the social status of occupations women have been entering has been rising across cohorts.

Women have better chances than men of upward moves on the social status scale, especially from its lower ranks, but not on occupations ranked by pay.


Highest paid jobs after leaving FT education

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Women Men Women Men

Cohort-1958 Cohort-1970

1st (lowest)

2nd

3rd

4th

5th (highest)


Occupational attainment by age: social status rankMEN WOMEN


The probabilities are calculated under a random-effects logistic regression model, including the following explanatoryvariables: job duration, age, duration of time spent out of LM, duration of time spent in PT jobs, occupational history,educational qualifications, occupational earnings level in current job, partnership status, father’s social class.The probabilities are calculated for a hypothetical person aged 30 having continuous work and occupational history, noPT employment experience; other variables evaluated at their means


Story 3. Some parallel and converging experiences

Used to be thought that women were the only ones to experience occupational downgrading. This is not the case although the reasons differ by gender.

[SLIDE] Education is a big help to upward career mobility for

women and men, although stronger for women. Higher father’s social class also helps upward career

mobility (less strong than education for women) higher for men born 1958, when labour market conditions worse.


Occupational mobility up to mid 30s

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Women,cohort1958

Women,cohort1970

Men,cohort1958

Men,cohort1970

Downward mobility

No mobility

Upward mobility


Gender differences (after controls) in career patterns

Career patterns women < men women > men

1946 1958 1970 1946 1958 1970

Steadily up √ √

Unstable up √ √ √

Unstable down √ √

Steadily down √


Story 4. Snakes and ladders.

Men and women who enter lowest paid occupations have approximately equal chances of upward career mobility in their early careers.

For men, these lowest paid jobs were like a stepping stone to a better position

But women tend to fall back much more than men after early upward moves.


Work-life occupational mobility


Story 5. What about the role of childbirth? Used to be women’s Achilles heel.

Leave the labour market to have first child, spend time out and lose wage-enhancing human capital;

return to part time job in low-paid part-time sector; Experience occupational downgrading if work PT.

Maternity leave (and successive extensions) has narrowed the time out of employment for most mothers.

Also secured their occupational position for many. Extent of occupational down grading has gone down [SLIDE]


Occupations either side of first childbirth

Percent of mothers downwardly mobile at this point. Mother born 1958 = 31 % Mother born 1970 = 14 % (First children born to Millennium mothers = 11%)


Story 6. Part-time jobs after childbirth

Key point for women, is time over childbirth, known for some time. Has it been changing?

Percent of mothers returning to PT hours after child1. Mother born 1958 = 66 % Mother born 1970 = 57 % (First children born to Millennium mothers = 68%)


Story 7. The higher you rise, the further to fall? Women have reached professional and associate

professional occupations in large numbers. Estimates of the probability of experiencing

occupational downgrading are highest for 1958-born women in such occupations, if they move from full to part-time jobs over childbirth.

Probability of downgrading on moving from FT to PT job over childbirth = 50% for ‘58 women as whole, 70% for ’58 women in top occupations; worse for high flying women employed in male dominated or integrated occupations, and if no PT opportunities.


The association between mother’s occupational earnings before and after child-birth is, overall, stronger in the 1970 than the 1958 cohort (ie less mobility, more stability in 1970 born)

Compared with those born in 1958, mothers born in 1970 staying in part-time / full-time employment around childbirth (in many cases in the same job), experienced much less downward occupational mobility.

Working part time in female dominated jobs protected from experiencing any further occupational downgrading.


Story 8. Part-time hourly pay penalty changed

Traditionally, has been a gap in the hourly pay of full-time compared with part-time employed women. eg. 9% in cross-section women in 1980, with controls.

2000 legislation prohibits treating FT and PT workers differently;

2003 Right to Request flexible working. 2006 analysis showed 10% PT penalty reduces to 3-

4% with controls added, including occupations.


PT pay

Our analysis of MCS mothers and PT pay reduces PT pay gap across childbirth to zero if

occupations included; ie occupations of PT jobs are still the biggest reason for pay gap.

Even without occupation being controlled: Staying with employer and working part time has no pay

penalty. Working part time when child aged 9 months has no PT

pay penalty, but carrying on PT at age 3, or 5 has bigger pay penalty.


Analysis of FT hourly wage rate growth in 30s

Showed an hourly (FT) wage penalty for ’58 men and women if they had a downward move, and an hourly wage advantage for upward moves.

Comparison between ‘58 women most like ’58 men, working full time and mainly in work through 20s and 30s found: Women still fell behind by being in more feminised

occupations, and less in top occupations where wage growth faster.


Conclusions 1.

Declining gender differences across cohorts. Occupational careers of women and men appear to be more similar by 1970 born cohort.

There is a lot of instability in men’s career paths, and more downward occupational mobility than might be expected.

Women and men are more similar in occupational careers if women remain childless and do not take part-time work, but they still have less wage growth.


Conclusions 2. Comparing cohorts also means comparing careers formed in

different labour market conditions. This creates a complex story of movements towards equality.

Women who take part-time jobs have less stable careers,

largely because of the occupations of PT jobs. Staying with the same employer over childbirth now protects from loss of pay and occupational rank. But even in higher occupations women still lose hourly pay if they continue to work part time for a few years after birth.


Policy implications – to reach gender equality Gains made by women in the public sector will not realise

gender equality or equal pay overall; it needs changes in women’s occupations towards men’s or change in men’s occupations towards women’s. Should women prefer more pay to better status?

Coincident with legislation about treatment of PT and FT, and right to request flexible working over childbirth, PT pay penalty has declined immediately after childbirth, but prolonged PT after childbirth brings the pay penalty back. Maybe this is only fair, since it represents less work experience?

More part-time jobs in higher occupations would still help to remove the remaining PT pay penalty.


References Dex,S. Ward,K. and Joshi,H. (2008) ‘Gender differences in occupational

wage mobility in the 1958 cohort’ Work Employment and Society, Vol.22 No.2, pp.263-280.

Dex,S. Ward,K. and Joshi,H. (2008) ‘Changes in Women’s Occupations and Occupational Mobility over 25 years’, in Scott,J. Dex,S. and Joshi,H. (eds.) Changing patterns of women’s employment over 25 years, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, pp.54-80

Bukodi,E. and Dex,S. (2009) ‘Bad Start: Is There a Way Up? Gender Differences in the Effect of Initial Occupation on Early Career Mobility in Britain’ in European Sociological Review 2009; doi: 10.1093/esr/jcp030

Bukodi,E. Goldthorpe,J. and Dex,S. (2010 forthcoming). ‘The Conceptualisation and Measurement of Occupational Hierarchies: a review, a proposal and some illustrative analyses’, in Quantity and Quality.


References Dex,S Ward, Lindley (2007) ‘Measuring vertical occupational

mobility’ GeNet Working Paper, 2007-24. Dex,S. and Bukodi,E. (2009) ‘The effects of part-time work on

women’s occupational mobility in Britain: Evidence from the 1958 birth cohort study’, forthcoming GeNet Working Paper.

Bukodi, E. (2009) ‘Education, first occupation and later occupational attainment: cross-cohort changes among men and women in Britain’. Forthcoming GeNet Working Paper.

Bukodi,E. (2009) ‘Men’s occupational mobility across cohorts’, forthcoming GeNet Working Paper.


Appendix: Lowest paid quintile occupations

Child care Domestic staff & related occupations Hairdressers, beauticians Other occs in agriculture Catering Sales assistants Other occs in sales &

services

Receptionists Road transport operatives Other occupations in

mining Personal & protective

services Textile, garment & related Food preparation


Appendix: Highest paid quintile occupations

Professionals in health

Professionals in education

Lawyers

Business professionals

Financial professionals

Technologists

Engineers

Industrial chemists

Production managers

Construction managers


Appendix: Lowest status quintile occupations

Assemblers/ line workers Food drink and tobacco

processing operatives Packers bottlers, canners,

fillers Catering assistants Farm workers livestock

handling

Labourers in making and processing industries

Cleaners Postal workers, mail

sorters Textile processing

operatives


Appendix: Highest status quintile occupations

Medical practitioner

University teaching professionals

Solicitors

Social worker

Welfare, community, youth workers

Journalists

Designers

Probation officers


Predicted proportions of career types by education Ranking by

pay

Predicted proportions are calculated under the multinomial logit model including the followingcovariates: education, first occupational status, father’s social class: managerial & professional


Predicted proportions of career types by first occupation

Predicted proportions are calculated under the multinomial logit model including the followingcovariates: education, first occupational status, father’s social class: managerial & professional

Documents

Following lives from birth and through the adult years Shirley Dex, Erzsébet Bukodi, Heather Joshi Institute of Education GeNet Seminar