Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit

Somalia

Post Gu 2011

17th August 2011

Central

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

Information for Better Livelihoods

Normal access in Hawd and Addun LHZs;

Partial access in Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Agro-pastoral LHZs;

Local authority, enumerator, Key informants with FSNAU /WFP Teleconferencing

Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations

Three Pastoral Livelihoods: Hawd, Addun, Coastal Deeh

• Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock and livestock products, bush product and kinship support

• Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and food aid

• Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel, sheep/goat

Agropastoral livelihood: Cowpea Agro pastoral - are more livestock rather than crop-reliant.

• Income: sale of livestock, livestock products and bush product sales

• Main sources of food: own production (cowpea) and purchases

Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

Climate

Overall Statement: Normal rains in Coastal Deeh and larger parts of Cowpea belt (pockets in Cowpea belt received below normal rains); below normal rains in Hawd and Addun with pockets receiving average rains.

Start of Season: Gu rains started 2 to 3 weeks late (April 26th). Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Started in April 26th and ended by end of 2nd Dekad of May. Rainfall performance was normal in Coastal Deeh and most parts in Cowpea Belt. However, Hawd and Addun received below normal precipitation.Rains have started 2-3 weeks later than usual and ended about 2 weeks earlier.

Gu 2011 Seasonal Performance

Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)

ClimateVegetation Conditions

Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

Civil Security Situation Resource-based conflicts in rural

settlements of Gelinsor and Adado areas between opposing clans;

High political confrontation among opposing sides over parts in Galgadud region;

Resource-based tensions and livestock rustling among clans over the area centered between Harardere and Hobyo districts;

Marine piracy attacks with successful hijackings of cargo vessels;

Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:

Human death and causalities of active workforce and displacement

High impact and long term restrictions on population movement and pastoral access to key grazing areas Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

Civil Insecurity

AgricultureGu 2011 Crop Production Estimates

Region DistrictGu ‘11 production in MT

Cowpea Sorghum Maize

Galgadud Elbur 0 0 0Galgadud Elder 0 0 0Mudug Harardere 115 0 0Mudug Hobyo 0 0 0Total Total

115 0 0

Cowpea Production in Gu 2010: Galgadud – 750MT; Mudug – 305MT

Gu 2011 Assessment Photos

Agriculture

Failure of cowpea crop harvest in Harardere, July, 2011

Failure of cowpea crop harvest in Hobyo, July, 2011

Agriculture

Gu 2011 Local Cereal

Flow

MarketsRegional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade –Cowpea and

Coastal

Regional Trend in

Cereal Prices

(Rice)

- Increasing Trend

Regional Trends in Terms of trade: Local

quality goat/cereal

(Goat/Rice)

- Declining Trend

Regional Trend in

Cereal Prices

(Sorghum)

-Increasing Trend

Regional Trends in Terms of trade: Local

quality goat/cereal

(Goat/Sorghum)

- Declining Trend

Market Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade – Cowpea Belt and

Coastal Deeh

Market Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices - Cowpea and

Coastal

Regional Trends: Local Quality Goat price

- Declining Trend(seasonal)

Normal to near normal rainfall performance in Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt and below normal rains in Hawd and Addun LHZs;

Improved rangeland conditions in Coastal Deeh and most parts in Cowpea Belt.

Below average rangeland and water conditions in parts of Hawd and Addun.

Normal livestock body conditions for goat and sheep across the livelihoods.

Below normal livestock body conditions for camel and cattle in Coastal, Cowpea and Addun.

LivestockRangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Gu 2011

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

RegionConception (Gu 2011)

Calving/kidding (Gu 2011)

Milk production (Gu 2011)

Expected calving/ kidding

Jul-Dec. 2011

Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11)

Livelihoods Livestock species

Galgaduud & South Mudug

Camel: Low to none

Cattle: None

Goat/sheep: Low to medium

Cowpea & Coastal:

Camel: Low to none

Cattle: None

Goat/sheep: None

Hawd/Addun:Camel :Hawd-Medium Addun - Low

Sheep/goats: Low

Cowpea and coastal:

Camel –Below Average

Hawd and Addun: Below Average (all species)

Cowpea belt

and Coastal :

Camel - LowCattle - NoneGoat/sheep - Low to Medium

Hawd and Addun:Camel -None

Goat/sheep- Low

Addun Pastoral

Camel: Increased (below BL)Shoats: Decreased (below BL)

Hawd Pastoral Camel: Increased (below BL)Goats: Decreased (below BL)

Cowpea Belt Camel: Decreased (below BL)

Cattle: Decreased (below BL)

Sheep/goats: Decreased (below BL)

Coastal Deeh Cattle: InsignificantGoat/sheep: Decreased (below BL)

LivestockRegional Trends in Cereal Prices and ToT- Hawd and Addun

Regional Trend in

Rice Prices

- Trend increasing

Regional Trends in Terms of trade: Local

quality goat/cereal

(Goat/Rice)

- Trend is declining

LivestockGu 2011 Assessment Photos

Water trucking. Dhabad, Abudwak, Jul. ‘11, Average camel. Arfuda Galkacyo, Mudug, Jul. ‘11,

Livestock watering. Hadile, Hobyo, Mudug, Jul. ‘11,

Average goat body condition browsing. Beer Abdi Farah, Dhusamareb, Galgadud, Jul.’11

Trends in Imported Commodity Prices

Markets

Increase in Imported Commodity Prices (last six months)

Factors Affecting Commercial Import Prices:

• Increased global prices

• Declined local cereal supply on the markets due to low production in southern regions

• Limited humanitarian food distributions

Region Nutrition Surveys (July 2011)

Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm; &<11.5cm)

Health Information System Info

TFC/OTP/SFC

Other relevant information – Key driving factors

Summary of analysis and

change from Deyr ‘10/11

Central Hawd Pastoral (N=576)GAM:14.4%&SAM:3.8%;Oedema: 0.5%•CMR: 0.91/ 10,000/day •U5MR: 2.12/10.000

Addun Pastoral (N=583)•GAM: 17.8% •SAM: 4.1%•CMR:0.56/10,000/day &U5MR:1.92/10,000/day.

Coastal Deeh: Assess. N=427•GAM/SAM: N/A•CMR/U5MR: N/A

Cowpea assessment N=755•GAM/SAM: N/A•CMR/U5MR: N/A

Dusamareb IDPs (N=198)•GAM: >34.0%• SAM: >6.2%•CMR:1.85/10,000/day U5MR:6.57/10,000/day.

Hawd: <12.5cm=5.9% <11.5cm=1.6%

Addun:<12.5cm=7.7% <11.5cm=1.4%

Coastal : •<12.5cm=16.9 •<11.5cm=5.4

Cowpea•<12.5cm=12.5 •<11.5cm= 4.9

Dusamareb IDPs •<12.5cm: 2>1.3%• <11.5cm: >1.3%

•High proportion but fluctuating in Hawd & Addun high and increasing MCHs.(FSNAU, HIS, Jan – July’11, R=3).

•High proportion but decreasing in Coastal (Jan-July’11, R=3). Low

•N/A

OTP data shows stable trend in last 3 months(UNICEF,Jan-July’11)

N/A

N/A

Hawd/Addun: •High morbidity, cholera outbreak and suboptimal child feeding is a concern •Low access to safe water 33.8% & 26.8% latrine 66.5% &57.4% in Hawd and Addun respectively•High morbidity: 37.5% in Hawd and 36.7% in Addun•low coverage of health programmes<80

Coastal Deeh•High morbidity in Coastal•Low food access ( fishing and high temperature, cyclone impact .•Limited milk availability in Golis/karkaar.•Poor infrastructure in Golis and coastal areas.

Some mitigating factors • Interventions in Hawd and Addun(health, nutrition, WASH and Food Aid)•Active social support •High immunization status and Vit A supplementation except in Addun and Hawd .• Ongoing Child Health Days.

Hawd –Serious sustained from Deyr’10/11

Addun: Critical – Deteriorated from post Deyr’10/11 from serious

Coastal Deeh: Very Critical Deteriorated from Critical Deyr ,11

Cowpee: Critical – sustained critical Deyr’11

Dusamareb IDPs •Very Critical (1st assessment)

NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings

CENTRALNutrition Situation Estimates

Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011

Aggravating factors :•AWD and cholera outbreak in Galgadud and Mudug regions•Insecurity & displacements with limited interventions in Addun, Cowpea Belt & Coastal Deeh •Limited milk availability in Addun, Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt LZ •High morbidity and poor health seeking behavior, sub-optimal child feeding, poor access to safe water and health care services across all the livelihoods

IDPS•Poor shelters•High morbidity in Dusamareb IDPs.

Mitigating factors :•Increased access to milk and milk products and stable ToT - after some Gu ‘11 rains in parts of the Hawd•Access to humanitarian assistance (health, nutrition, WASH) in the Hawd and active social support)

Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)

Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep)

Urban Population: Galgadud 100%P in HE; 25%M in AFLC; Mudug: 100%P in HE; 25%M in AFLCRural population:Coastal Deeh (100% of population in HE); Cowpea Belt (100% of P- HE; 100%

M- AFLC); Addun (50% of the P-HE; 50% of P-AFLC)

•Acute Malnutrition: Dhusamareb IDP Very Critical; Coastal Deeh Livelihood Zone deteriorated from Critical to Very Critical while Cowpea sustained Critical levels with potential to deteriorate •Food Access: Populations in HE (severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcalppp day) while those in AFLC (lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset Stripping)•Water Access: Populations in HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day - human usage only); in AFLC (7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping)•Destitution/Displacement: Populations in HE (concentrated; increasing); in AFLC (emerging; diffuse)•Coping: Populations in HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); in AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing•Livelihood Assets: Populations in HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); in AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access)

CENTRALSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation

MAP 2: IPC, Gu 2011

MAP 1: IPC April 2011

Below normal Gu 2011 rains in parts of Hawd and Addun leading to poor pasture and water availability

Poor milk production /availability in most livelihoods due to low calving/kidding High livestock asset losses in Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt due to the successive droughts

(2008-2011) Increases in local (red sorghum) and imported (rice) cereal prices Crop failure in Cowpea Belt due to the long dry spell, coupled with pests and diseases Significant decline (57%) in ToT between goat and red sorghum (from 95 kg in June ’10 to 41 kg

in Jun ’11) High indebtedness (> 200 USD) accrued during previous droughts to meet water and food

needs Reduced fishing activities due to piracy along the coastline Increased pastoral destitution (Coastal Deeh) Increased inter-clan resource based conflicts (rangelands) Limited humanitarian space (Harardheere, Eldheer and Elbuur districts) Increased civil insecurity among opposing groups affecting trade and pastoral mobility

CENTRAL Main Contributing Factors of Rural IPC Situation

CENTRAL Rural Population in Crisis by livelihoods

Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone

Population of Affected

Livelihood Zones

Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011

Acute Food and Livelihood

Crisis(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Acute Food and

Livelihood Crisis(AFLC)

Humanitarian

Emergency

(HE)

Galgaduud Addun pastoral 123,218 48,000 17,000 19,000 17,000

  Central Agro-Past 60,944 34,000 15,000 35,000 16,000

Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral 41,030 8,000 3,000 11,000 0

  Coastal Deeh: sheep 21,671 4,000 4,000 0 2,000

Southern Inland Past 7,453 2,000 1,000 3,000 2,000

Destitute pastoralists 16,764 0 18,000 0 28,000

  SUB-TOTAL 271,080 96,000 58,000 68,000 65,000

South Mudug Addun pastoral 41,823 21,000 7,000 8,000 4,000

  Central Agro-Past 31,750 17,000 8,000 13,000 8,000

  Coastal Deeh: sheep 29,257 5,000 6,000 0 1,000

  Hawd Pastoral 16,243 2,000 1,000 10,000 0

Destitute pastoralists 12,382 0 7,000 0 26,000

  Sub-Total 131,455 45,000 29,000 31,000 39,000

GRAND TOTAL 402,535 141,000 87,000 99,000 104,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 228,000 203,000

CENTRAL Rural Population in Crisis by District

Affected Regions and DistrictUNDP 2005

Rural Population

Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011

Acute Food and Livelihood

Crisis(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Acute Food and

Livelihood Crisis(AFLC)

Humanitarian

Emergency

(HE)

Galgaduud Cabudwaaq 32,654 8,000 5,000 8,000 5,000

  Cadaado 36,304 9,000 7,000 8,000 6,000

  Ceel Buur 66,274 27,000 15,000 18,000 15,000

Ceel Dheer 61,407 26,000 16,000 24,000 24,000

Dhuusamarreeb

74,441 26,000 15,000 10,000 15,000

  SUB-TOTAL 271,080 96,000 58,000 68,000 65,000

South Mudug Gaalkacyo 24,860 6,000 4,000 7,000 3,000

  Hobyo 54,438 19,000 13,000 10,000 18,000

Xarardheere 52,157 20,000 12,000 14,000 18,000

  SUB-TOTAL 131,455 45,000 29,000 31,000 39,000

GRAND TOTAL 402,535 141,000 87,000 99,000 104,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE228,000 203,000

CENTRALUrban Population in Crisis

DistrictUNDP 2005

Total PopulationUNDP 2005 Urban

Population

Deyr 2010/11Gu 2011

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban

population

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban

population

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

South Mudug      

Gaalkacyo 137,667 54,800 19,000 0 35 0 21,000 38

Hobyo 67,249 12,811 3,000 1,000 31 0 4,000 31

Xarardheere 65,543 13,386 4,000 1,000 37 0 5,000 37

Sub-Total 270,459 80,997 26,000 2,000 34 0 30,000 37

Galgaduud      

Cabudwaaq 41,067 8,413 0 3,000 36 1,000 3,000 48

Cadaado 45,630 9,326 0 3,000 32 0 3,000 32

Ceel Buur 79,092 12,818 0 4,000 31 0 4,000 31

Ceel Dheer 73,008 11,601 0 4,000 34 0 4,000 34

Dhuusamarreeb 91,260 16,819 0 8,000 48 2,000 8,000 59

Sub-Total 330,057 58,977 0 22,000 37 3,000 22,000 42

Grand Total 600,516 139,974 50,000 36 55,000 39