FOOD SECURITY STRATEGY

Dr. Shakeel Ahmed Khan

Ministry of Food and Agriculture

FOOD SECURITY

Exists “when all people, at all times have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”

(World Food Summit,1996)

Food security covers:

• Availability: Domestic production and imports

• Access: Purchasing power

• Utilization: Ability of the human body to digest and metabolize food

Contd..

FACTORS AFFECTING FOOD SECURITY

FoodInsecurity

Stagnancy in ProductivityDeclines in incomes

Growing incidence of Food related diseases

High dependence onImported food

Increase in poverty

Global food price surge

PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY OF SELECTED FOODS (KG/ANNUM)

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Wheat 122.9 117.7 125.4 132.8 126.8 125

Rice 13.0 15.1 12.7 15.0 21.2 17.9

Pulses 6.8 8.2 6.9 7.2 7.7 7.7

Edible Oils

12.4 12.8 12.8 13.3 13.5 12.5

Source: Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan, 2009-10.

ACHIEVEMENTS IN FOOD SECURITY

Agriculture sector growth rate 1980s 5.4% 1990s 4.4% 2000s 3.0%

Record production: Wheat (2008-09) 24.03 million tons (2009-10:

23.3 million tons) Rice (2008-09) 7 million tons (2009-10: 6.88

million tons) Freedom from wheat imports

MINIMIZED WHEAT PRICE DIFFERENCE

Substantial wheat price gap between Punjab and other provinces during 2008:

Punjab: Rs. 19.43/kg Sindh: Rs. 23.64/kg KPK: Rs. 25.08/kg Baluchistan. Rs. 27.00/kg

Present wheat Prices: Punjab: Rs. 26.58/kg Sindh: Rs. 26.71/kg KPK: Rs. 28/kg Baluchistan. Rs. 31.25/kg

• Adequate production through enhancing productivity

• Availability of farm inputs at reasonable prices and ensuring better return to farmers

• Stability of food prices

• Targeted subsidies and safety nets for poor andvulnerable

• Free movement of agricultural commoditiesthrough a sustainable food distribution system

• Increasing investment to build grain storage space through public and private sector participation

General ObjectivesNATIONAL FOOD POLICY

• Achieving an average agricultural growth rate at least of 4% per annum

• Developing an efficient and equitable system of food procurement , storage and distribution

• Improving access of poor household to food by adopting pro-poor growth strategy and providing non-farm employment on a substantial scale

• Building a transparent and well managed system of safety nets to provide income support to very poor households

MAIN ELEMENTS OF FOOD SECURITY STRATEGY

• Increasing investment in R & D for knowledge based and technology led development of agriculture sector

• Enhancing food production through exploiting available productivity potential

• Promoting investment in health and educationsectors

• Implementation of efficient safety nets

• Equitable development of economy and resource utilization with a focus on poor and vulnerable segments of society

• Smallholder productivity/competitiveness

General ObjectivesMAIN THRUSTS TO ENSURE FOOD SECURITY

• Launching of Benazir Income Support Programme

• National Task Force on Food Security

• Attractive farm- gate price for wheat crop

• Intervention price mechanism for rice and cotton

• Enhancing Food Grains Storage Capacity

• Special Programme for Food Security (CMP-II)

• Subsidized food items through Utility Stores network

SPECIFIC INITIATIVES

• Development initiatives for sustaining growth inagriculture:

Improving water use efficiency and conservation

Strengthening of Agricultural Research

Seed production / supply and access to new seeds

Benazir Tractor Scheme and provincial Initiatives

Enhancing Agricultural Credit Outreach andAllocation and credit insurance scheme

DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES

Contd…

Promotion of horticulture production and marketing

Improved marketing and investment in compliance of international quality and SPS standards

Enhanced support to livestock and fisheries sectors

Special initiatives to enhance productivity of wheat and cotton

Enhancing oilseed production (canola/sunflower)

WAY FORWARD

• Negotiating investment programs with development partners

• Effective implementation of initiatives to addressthe challenge of National Food Security

• Focus on enhancing smallholders’ crop production

• Enhanced support to livestock and fisheries sectors

Poverty Status Based on Head Count (%)

Regions 1990-91 2000-01 2004-05 2005-06 2008-09

Pakistan 26.1 34.5 23.90 22.3

Urban 26.6 22.69 14.94 14.94

Rural 25.2 39.26 28.13 28.13

Poverty line (Rs)

- 723.4 878.6 944.5

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan, 2007-08

Strong likelihood of sharp increase in poverty during 2007-2009due to increase in food and energy prices

Per Capita Availability of Food Items

Food item Unit 1989-90 2008-09

Wheat Kg 129.4 125.0Rice Kg 20.7 14.6Other grains Kg 9.7 11.4All cereals Kg 160.7 151.0Pulses Kg 5.4 8.0Milk Kg 80.1 94.2Edible oil Kg 11.1 12.6Meat Kg 17.3 20.5Fruit & Vegetables Kg 82.2 77.6Sugar Kg 27.0 29.3Eggs Dozens 2.1 5.2Calories Number 2324 2363Protein per day Gram 67.4 70.0

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2007-08

• Achieving an average agricultural growth rate at least of 4% per annum

• Developing an efficient and equitable system of food procurement , storage and distribution

• Improving access of poor household to food by adopting pro-poor growth strategy and providing non-farm employment on a substantial scale

• Building a transparent and well managed system of safety nets to provide income support to very poor households

Main Elements of Food Security Strategy

• Launching of Benazir Income Support Programme

• PM’s National Task Force on Food Security

• Attractive farm- gate price for wheat crop

• Intervention price mechanism for rice and cotton

• Subsidies on fertilizers

Contd..

Government Initiatives

Land Use in Pakistan

Population of Pakistan

• Contributes about 23% in National GDP

• Employs about 44.7% of labour force

• Provides food to 170 million population and to a very large livestock herd

• Provides raw material to large agro-based industries

• About 67% population lives in rural area and derives their livelihood from agriculture

• This year (2008-09) Agriculture Sector Growth is 4.7% with record production of Wheat (24 million tons) Rice (6.9 million tons) and Maize (4.0 million tons)

General ObjectivesAgriculture: Engine of Economic Growth

PRODUCTION

Production Paradigms

Price Hike in Pakistan2007-08

88%80%

58%

49%

35% 33% 32% 30%

18%11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Rice Edible Oil GramPulse

Maize Fish LiquidMilk

MashPulse

WheatFlour

Mutton Beef withBones

Per

cent

.

Source: MINFAL

Main Component of Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation

Item 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

CPI (General) 7.8 10.2 22.4

Food Group 10.4 15.0 26.6

Non-Food Group 6.0 6.8 19.0

Core Inflation 5.9 7.5 17.8

Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS)

Poverty Status Based on Head Count (%)

Regions 1990-91 2000-01 2004-05 2005-06 2008-09

Pakistan 26.1 34.5 23.90 22.3

Urban 26.6 22.69 14.94 14.94

Rural 25.2 39.26 28.13 28.13

Poverty line (Rs)

- 723.4 878.6 944.5

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan, 2007-08

Strong likelihood of sharp increase in poverty during 2007-2009due to increase in food and energy prices

Poverty Status Based on Head Count (%)

Regions 1990-91 2000-01 2004-05 2005-06 2008-09

Pakistan 26.1 34.5 23.90 22.3

Urban 26.6 22.69 14.94 14.94

Rural 25.2 39.26 28.13 28.13

Poverty line (Rs)

- 723.4 878.6 944.5

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan, 2007-08

Strong likelihood of sharp increase in poverty during 2007-2009due to increase in food and energy prices

Population Poverty Bands in PakistanPoverty Band Income

(Rs / month)Non – Poor (20.9%) >2000/-

(>13,400)Transitory Non-Poor (36.3%) 1800/-

Transitory Vulnerable (20.5%) 1180/-

At or below poverty line (16.4%): Transitory Poor

944/-

Chronically Poor (5.4%) 697/-

Extremely Poor (0.5%) <470/-(<2,350)

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan (2005-06 data)

Per capita availability of food items

Food item Unit 1989-90 2008-09

Wheat Kg 129.4 125.0Rice Kg 20.7 14.6Other grains Kg 9.7 11.4All cereals Kg 160.7 151.0Pulses Kg 5.4 8.0Milk Kg 80.1 94.2Edible oil Kg 11.1 12.6Meat Kg 17.3 20.5Fruit & Vegetables Kg 82.2 77.6Sugar Kg 27.0 29.3Eggs Dozens 2.1 5.2Calories Number 2324 2363Protein per day Gram 67.4 70.0

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2007-08

• Protein intake = 70.0 gram (It is 16.6% more than the Recommended Dietary Allowance (RDA) of 60 gm)

• Calories intake = 2363 (It is 9.3% less than the RDA of 2550 calories)

• Food insecure = Consuming <2350 calories

General ObjectivesStatus of Food Intake

Food insecure people consuming <1700 kcl/capita/day(Pre price hike V/S 2008)

Regions People in millionPre crisis 2008 % increase

Pakistan 35.780 45.380 26.8Punjab 16.750 19.787 18.1Sindh 10.218 13.413 31.1NWFP 2.847 4.318 51.7Balochistan 2.365 2.966 25.4AJK, FATA, FANA 3.600 4.916 36.5

Source: HIES data: 2008

Factors Affecting Food Security In Pakistan

FoodInsecurity

Stagnancy in Productivity

Declines in incomes fromTraditional crops

Growing incidence of Food related diseases

High dependence onImported food

Increase in poverty

Global food price surge

Global Food Crisis

Ending Stocks 1999 to 2007

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*

Wheat Coarse grains Rice (milled) Total

Source: FAO

MIL

LIO

N T

ON

S

DECLINING CEREAL STOCKS (LOWEST IN THREE DECADES)

Food Security and Household Spending Patterns

Growing disparity between food inflation and wage rate adjustments

Negative Trends in Food Consumption

Increase in the portion of severely food insecure population

Increased household expenditure on food

Continued Dependency on Food Imports

• Increasing investment in R & D for knowledge based development of agriculture sector

• Enhancing food production through exploiting available productivity potential

• Promoting investment in health andeducation sectors

• Implementation of efficient safety nets

• Equitable development of economy and resource utilization with a focus on poor and vulnerable segments of society

General ObjectivesStrategy to overcome hunger & malnutrition

• Federal/provincial governments joint efforts to ensure food availability

• Regulatory measures for import and export of food items

• Vigilance on illegal siphoning of wheat/wheat floor

• Distribution of wheat floor at subsidized rates

Government Initiatives

Contd..

• Launching of Benazir Income Support Programme

• PM’s National Task Force on Food Security

• Attractive farm- gate price for wheat crop

• Support price mechanism extended to rice,sugarcane & cotton

• Subsidies on fertilizers

Contd..

Government Initiatives

• Development initiatives for sustaining growth inagriculture Food security Water conservation Seed production / supply Improved marketing

• Assessment of the impact of the food crisis inPakistan: short, medium and long-term responsein collaboration with UN system

Government Initiatives

Medium to Long Term Investment Programme

• Food commodities policy and regulatory framework system improvement

• Smallholder productivity andcompetitiveness enhancement

• Crop monitoring, forecasting andinformation system innovation

• National social protection system support

Way Forward

• Negotiating investment programs withdevelopment partners

• Effective implementation of initiatives to addressthe challenge of National Food Security

• Focus on enhancing smallholders crop production

• Enhanced support to livestock and fisheriessectors

Conclusion

• Tangible support from developmentpartners

• Implementation of Regional Initiatives ToSupport Food Security

NATIONAL AVERAGE WHOLE SALE PRICES (per 40 kg)IN PAKISTAN

WHOLE SALE PRICE PER 40 KG

YearWheatFlour

Basmati Super

(Old)Gram(Split)

Mash(Split)

Edible Oil

Milk (Buffalo)

Beef(With

Bone)Mutto

n

2006-07 510 1402 1472 2416 2451 947 4006 7475

2007-08 631 2242 1538 2366 3581 1096 4109 7647

2008-09 985 3182 1945 2714 4599 1345 4962 8751

% increase 93.1 127.0 32.1 12.3 87.6 42.0 23.9 17.1

Material to Add Map of Pakistan (Showing of Agricultural and non

agriculture) Total Demographics of Pakistan/population

Intensity/distribution Children nutrition profile Health Profile (UNICEF) WFP interventions in Pakistan for child health and

education Price Hike actual Data

Agriculture: Engine of Economic Growth

• Contributes about 23% in National GDP

• Employs about 44.7% of labour force

• Provides food to 170 million population and to a very large livestock herd

• Provides raw material to large agro-based industries

• About 67% population lives in rural area and derives their livelihood from agriculture

• This year (2008-09) Agriculture Sector Growth is 4.7% with record production of Wheat (24 million tons) Rice (6.9 million tons) and Maize (4.0 million tons)

• Contributes about 23% in National GDP

• Employs about 44.7% of labour force

• Provides food to 170 million population and to a very large livestock herd

• Provides raw material to large agro-based industries

• About 67% population lives in rural area and derives their livelihood from agriculture

• This year (2008-09) Agriculture Sector Growth is 4.7% with record production of Wheat (24 million tons) Rice (6.9 million tons) and Maize (4.0 million tons)

Agriculture: Engine of Economic Growth

Food Basket (per capita per month)

Food Item Unit Qty

Cereals Kg 9.18Pulses Kg 0.28Milk and milk products Ltr 6.48Edible oils/fats Kg 1.44Meat (beef/Mutton/poultry/fish) Kg 1.97Fruits Kg 1.19Eggs No 1.77Vegetable Kg 3.55Sugar Kg 1.37

Source: HIES data: 2008

Problems of Agriculture Sector

• Large yield gaps

• Water shortage intensifying

• Generally subsistence farming

• Poor farmers with low investment capacity

• Un-organized farming community

• Small farmers in majority

• Low knowledge and skills leading to slow adoption

of production technologies

• Lack of appropriate marketing arrangements