Forecasts West Asia in 2015 - ETH Z · West Asia in 2015 IPCS Forecasts West Asia in 2015 Amb Ranjit Gupta Distinguished Fellow, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) West

IPCS Forecasts

West Asia in 2015 Rise of the Islamic State I Coalition against the IS I Efficacies of Strategies in countering the IS I Future of Iraq and Syria I Nuclear Deal with Iran I US and

West Asia I Israel and Palestine I A Strategy for India

Amb Ranjit Gupta

IPCS Special Report # 168 January 2015

IPCS Forecasts 2015 I Special Report #168, January 2015

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About the Author

Amb Ranjit Gupta

Amb Gupta is a Distinguished

Fellow at the Institute of Peace and

Conflict Studies (IPCS). Earlier he

served as Indian Ambassador to Yemen and Oman.

He writes a column for the IPCS titled Spotlight

West Asia. See

http://www.ipcs.org/columnist/amb‐ranjit‐gupta/

This report is an updated and compiled version of

his earlier commentaries for his column during

2014.

© IPCS, 2015

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CONTENTS

Section‐I

West Asia in 2015: A

Forecast

Section‐II

West Asia in 2014: A

Review

The Islamic State

Iraq, Syria and Iran

Rest of the Arab World

US and West Asia

Section‐III

India and West Asia

West Asia in 2015

IPCS Forecasts

West Asia in 2015 Amb Ranjit Gupta Distinguished Fellow, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS)

WestAsiain2015:AForecastMaking predictions is a hazardous exercise; however, it needs to be ventured. 2014 wasparticularlybleak for theArabworldbutas theyearended therewere increasing indicationsthat the situationwill steadily improve through 2015 (See Ranjit Gupta, “Rise of the IslamicState:ImplicationsfortheArabWorld,”IPCSCommentary#4778,15December2014).Intheultimateanalysis,improvementordeteriorationofthesituationinWestAsiaisgoingtobeheavilydependentuponwhetherthenuclearnegotiationswithIransucceedornot.NatureofWarandCoalitionagainsttheIslamicStatein2015The battle against the Islamic State in particular and terrorism inWest Asia in general willremainatthetopofthegeopoliticalagendaofthegovernmentsofallcountriesofWestAsiaaswellasof theUnitedStates. It isabsolutely imperative that the IslamicStatebedefeatedandthereforethebattlehastobeprosecutedwithgreaterintensity.SincetheUSairstrikesstartedinSeptember2014,theIslamicState’srapidexpansionandadvancewasstopped.2015islikelytowitnessaprogressively increasing rollback in termsof the territory that the IslamicStatecontrolledatitspeak.However,thiscannotbeaccomplishedbyairstrikesalone.ThoughanincreaseinthenumberofU.S.military advisers and Special Forces units, and their sometimes even leading Iraqis intobattle can be foreseen, no significant deployment of U.S. combat soldiers is needed and anytemptation to do so should be resisted. Thenumbers of Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces,already actively involved in the fighting, risingsignificantlyandmoreairstrikesfromIranalso–afew took place in the closing stages of 2014 arequitelikely.IfSaudiArabiacouldbepersuadedtobecomemoreassertive across its border into Iraq’s Sunniinhabited Anbar Province it could have a salutaryeffect by pressing the Islamic State from the rearalso. However, the main brunt of fighting theIslamicStateonthegroundmustbebornebyIraqis.Shia militias, Sunni tribals, Kurds and Iraqigovernment troops are likely to continue to be

Since the US airstrikes started in

September 2014, the Islamic

State’s rapid expansion and

advance was stopped. 2015 is

likely to witness a progressively

increasing roll back in terms of the

territory that the Islamic State

controlled at its peak


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cooperatively engaged in the common fightagainsttheIS–thecommonenemy.Ethnic and Sectarian Divides: LikelyPositive Developments in Iraq during2015EthnicandsectariandividesinIraqhadbeenprogressively increasing from 2003.However, despite a great deal of bad bloodbetweenthemremainingfortheforeseeablefuture, the Iraqi government and leaders ofthese communities are likely to preventthese divisions from hardening intoirrevocable separatism. Starting from 2015onwardstheprocessesofmendingabroken

Iraqaregoingtomoveforwardinameaningfulway.Iran’sRelatedNuclearNegotiations:TowardsaSuccessfulConclusion?The other regional issue, one which has extraordinary geopolitical and geo strategicsignificance,bothregionallyandindeedworldwide, is the issueof Iran’snuclearprogramandtheongoingnegotiationsbetweenitandtheP5+1.Thedeadlinefortheconclusionofthetalkshasbeenextendedtwice;thisinitselfisasignthatthecontendingpartiesintendtosucceedwhichisabsolutelyimperativebecauseiftheyfailthenthespectreofnuclearweaponsproliferation in theregionwill loomever largerand IranwillinevitablystartplayingspoilsportinthefightagainsttheIslamicStateandtherebyplungetheregionintoevengreaterchaos;partlyforthesereasonsthenegotiationswillmostlikelysucceedeventhoughtheresultisnotgoingtobefullysatisfactorytoeitherside.WilltheCivilWarinSyriacometoanend?Ifthenegotiationsonthenuclearissue(withIran)succeed,thebattleagainsttheIslamicStatewillacquireadditionalvigorandtheprospectsofapoliticalsolutiontothehorrendouscivilwarinSyria will brighten considerably and we shouldexpecttowitnessprogressinthatdirectionbeforethe end of 2015. Peace talks between the Syriangovernment and the opposition initiated underRussian aegis and that of the U.N. Special Envoyare likely togathermomentum in2015and Iranwould surely start playing an active role in thatprocesstoo.Because thewaragainst the IslamicStatewillbestepped up there would be an increase in thealready very high levels of violence that hasgripped Iraq and Syria in the past few years. In

If the negotiations on the nuclear

issue (with Iran) succeed, the

battle against the Islamic State

will acquire additional vigor and

the prospects of a political

solution to the horrendous civil

war in Syria will brighten

considerably

The deadline for the conclusion of

the talks (with Iran) has been

extended twice; this in itself is a

sign that the contending parties

intend to succeed which is

absolutely imperative

West Asia in 2015

additionitisverylikelythatthebarbaricbrutalityexhibitedbytheIslamicStateincarryingoutmass executions and grim video publicity of beheadings, wholesale abduction and rape as itretreats,etc.willincrease.Thisisapricewhichunfortunatelywillhavetobepaid.DevelopmentswithinSaudiArabia:EnteringUncharteredTerritory?TherehasbeenalotofchurningwithintheseniorechelonsoftheSaudiRoyalfamilyduringthepastyeartwoyearswithtwosuccessiveCrownPrincesdying within months of each other; and by thecontroversial appointment of a Deputy CrownPrince–PrinceMuqrin–regardeddimlybymanyintheroyalfamilyasnotbeingatrueprinceashismotherwas not the dynasty founderKing Saud’swife)in May 2014, a heretofore nonexistentposition; uncharacteristically, this appointmentdid not receive unanimous approval in theAllegianceCouncil.A fewpowerful establishmentPrinces,likePrinceBandar,havebeensidelined.King Abdullah is now very seriously ill and willmostlikelypassawayorbecomecompletelynon‐functionalduringthefirsthalfof2015,ratheranunfortunatehappeningatthisparticulartimebecause he has been a strong and commanding figure. With Crown Prince Salman’s fragilehealth, questions arise about the future stability of the policies of this family‐run, oil‐richcountryapartfromdomesticconsequencesofpotentialdiscordwiththeRoyalfamily.ThiscouldleadtounpredictableconsequencesnotonlyforSaudiArabiabutfortheregionasa

whole when it is in chaos. Every attemptwould be made to present a unified andharmonious Royal family façade to theoutside world and the endeavor would beto maintain broad continuity of recentpolicies with a view to building bridgesrather than exacerbating differences withneighbours. However,SaudiArabia isnowentering uncharted territory and thereforeallpredictionsarenecessarilyspeculativeOil prices have fallen precipitously in thepastmonth and the Saudi OilMinister hasbeen reported as saying repeatedly andemphatically that it will not curtail

productionevenifthepricefallsaslowas$25.00perbarrel.Thisishurtingalloilproducersbutin particular Iran in the region and Russia outside it; if this persists for long U.S. shale oilextractioncouldbecomeunviable.IfthenuclearnegotiationswithIrandonotsucceedthislow

With Crown Prince Salman’s

fragile health, questions arise

about the future stability of the

policies of this family‐run, oil‐rich

Saudi Arabia apart from domestic

consequences of potential discord

with the Royal family. This could

lead to unpredictable

consequences not only for Saudi

Arabia but for the region as a

whole when it is in chaos

Oil prices have fallen precipitously

in the past month...This is hurting

all oil producers but in particular

Iran in the region and Russia

outside it; if this persists for long

U.S. shale oil extraction could

become unviable.


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oil factor may become a particularly strong aggravating factor in catalyzing a dramaticdeteriorationofthesituationthroughoutWestAsia.RestoftheArabWorldin2015IrrespectiveoftheoutcomeofthebattleagainsttheIslamicStateandthenuclearnegotiations,theinternalsituationswithinmanyArabcountriesareunlikelytoimproveparticularlyinEgypt,LibyaandYemen.ThoughthereisademocraticallyelectedgovernmentinEgyptitisevenmoreauthoritarian than previous authoritarian regimes and this will cause continuing domesticpolitical unrest and increase in what the regime describes as terrorism. Libya has twocompeting national governments and parliaments and about two dozen different militantgroupsincontentionwithotherscontrollingvirtualIslamicemirates.

Libya is likely to descend into a Somalialike situation. Yemen has a weak andincreasingly ineffectual centralgovernment, theShiaHouthi rebels are invirtual control of the capital Sanaa andimportant Sunni majority neighbouringtowns, the secessionist movement in thesouth is strengtheningby theday even asthe Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula,ensconced mainly in southern Yemen,remains a dangerous outfit. A break‐upcannot be ruled out but in that event thesituation in both successor states is likelytodeteriorateevenfurther.

USandWestAsia:Towardsacrediblerole?Notwithstanding,occasionalpublicstatementsdenouncingUSpolicy inWestAsia,USmilitaryinvolvement against the Islamic State, in great contrast to past decades, is welcomed by allregionalstatesandwillalmostcertainlycontributetoarecoveryofUScredibility,influenceandstanding in theregionwhichhad fallen tohistorical lows. If thenuclearnegotiationssucceed,despiteunquestionableSaudiangeranddisappointment,theU.S.willonceagainresumeitsroleas the indispensable power in the region as it has clearly exhibited in the fight against theIslamicStatealready.IsraelandPalestine:Repeatof2014?ThecompleteabsenceofanyvisionaryleadershiponeithersideoftheIsraeliPalestiniandivide,deep domestic cleavages amongst the Israelis and the Palestinians and the pressingpreoccupationsofArabcountriesandinfluentialworldpowerswithotherissues,willresultinthelackofanymeaningfulprogressofthePalestinian‐Israeliimbroglio;infact,therecouldwellbearepeatofwhathadhappenedvis‐avisGazain2014.IndiaandWestAsiain2015An earlier column (See Ranjit Gupta, “Looking West: Bridging the Gulf with the GCC,” IPCSCommentary #4483, 2 June 2014) explained the enormous significance of the GCC to India’swellbeingandsecurity.Unfortunately,India’snewgovernmentdoesnotseemtobepersuaded

Irrespective of the outcome of the

battle against the Islamic State

and the nuclear negotiations, the

internal situations within many

Arab countries are unlikely to

improve particularly in Egypt,

Libya and Yemen

West Asia in 2015

by the column’s rationale.WestAsia has been almost totally neglected as never before sinceIndia’sindependence.ThiscouldhaveseriousconsequencesforIndia.Having said this, India has no specific role to play on the ground in the struggle against theIslamicStatebeyondofferingfulldiplomaticandpoliticalsupporttothestruggleagainsttheIS.The danger of terrorist activities by IndianMuslims is exaggerated and to the extent that itexistsitwouldbemuchmoreduetosomebeingenticedbythenotoriousPakistanispyagency,theISI,thanduetooftheinfluenceoractivitiesoftheIslamicStateorAlQaeda.India’s Muslim community – the third largest in the world ‐ has an absolutely outstandingrecord of resistance to contagion by Islamic extremist entities, ideologies and movements.ThereforethereisnogreatdangerofradicalismofsignificantnumbersofIndianMuslimsbythelatter and India’s security agencies are quite capable of handling any such contingencies. Agreater challenge is posed by possible consequences of the highly unfortunate rhetoric andactivitiesoffarrightHinduactivistswhichthePrimeMinisterModiwillhopefullycurbin2015.Hehasbeenanenormouslydynamicleaderwithaparticularlyproactiveandvisionaryforeignpolicywith lackof attention toWestAsiabeinga conspicuousexception.Hopefullyhewouldremedythislacunain2015.

WestAsiain2014:AReviewI

TheIslamicStateRiseoftheIslamicState:ImplicationsfortheArabWorld1Thoughit isgoingtotakea longtimetodefeattheIslamicState(IS),anditmustbedefeated,somesilver liningsof theverydarkcloud the IS representsarebeginning tobehazilyvisibleoverthehorizon.Since theproclamationof the IS,strangethingshavebegunhappening inWestAsia.The IS isnotonlyagainsttheShiagovernmentsofIraqandSyriabutalsoofIran;itisevenmoreagainsttheSunnigovernmentsoftheGulfmonarchies,inparticular,SaudiArabia,apartfromtheUSinparticular and the West in general; it is also fighting against al Qaeda and its clones andaffiliates.TheISisagainsteverybody.Ithasnoallies.It has thus succeeded in bringing about a heretofore difficult to imagine scenario: countries,entities and regimes traditionally antagonistic and hostile to each other find themselvesengagedinacommonwaragainstacommonenemy.Thus,wehavetheratherstrangespectacleofseeing theUSand Iran;SaudiArabiaand Iran;SaudiArabiaandShia‐ruled Iraq; theAssadregimeandthosesworntooverthrowit–SaudiArabia,Turkey,QatarandtheUSandassorted

1 Originally published as IPCS Commentary on 15 December 2014. See http://www.ipcs.org/article/iran/rise‐of‐the‐islamic‐state‐implications‐for‐the‐arab‐world‐4778.html


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Islamistextremistgroups,and,Kurdishfactionsperpetuallyatloggerheadswitheachotherandwith thegovernmentsof thenations theyarepartof–allof them in thesamecampwarringagainsttheIS.This could have some very positive consequences in a region where hostile and conflictualrelationshipsareendemic:First,afterthefallof formerIraqiPresidentSaddamHussein‐ruledgovernment,sectarianandethnicfissurescametotheforeinIraqinamannerthathadneverbeenthecasebefore.Sunnishavebeenthetraditionalrulingelement in Iraqthroughouthistory,butsince2003theyhavenotonlybeendeeplyalienatedbutalsodeliberatelyhumiliated.Therefore,theinvolvementofShias, SunnisandKurds in the common fight against the IS isveryencouragingand couldbecatharticandtherapeutic.ThisbodeswellforIraq’sfuturesinceithadbeguntoappearthatitsbeingpartitionedalongsectarianandethnicdivideswasbecominginevitable.ThisenforcedtogethernessmayfinallypersuaderegionalrivalsIranandSaudiArabiaandtheirrespectivealliestoworktogetherinthecommonandsharedinterestsof fightingtoeliminateIslamistextremismandsectarianism.A third potentially significant consequence is that this will ultimately help to promotedisenchantmentof theaverageMuslim,particularly in theGulf region,whetherhe isSunniorShia,withsectarianismandIslamistextremism,andmakethemrealizethattheseideologiesareverydangerousforallMuslims.The fourthpotential consequence is that as thewaragainst the ISprogresseswell, combinedwiththepossibilityofadealbetweenIranandtheP5onthenuclearissue,allthismayleadtoreal possibilities of a negotiated political solution to the civil war in Syria, which otherwiseseemsimpossibletoenvisage.ThefifthflowsfromthefactthattheintenserivalrybetweentheISandalQaedaforcontrolofthe global jihadist movement is already causing intra‐jihadist infighting and this can beexpected to escalate throughout the region and this augurswell for the defeat of perniciousextremistandjihadigroups.OneconsequenceofthederailingoftheArabSpringhasbeentheenormousstrainonGCCunity,primarily due to Qatar taking a very different stance as compared to other GCC countries inrelation to various Islamist groups. This was hampering the fight against the IS. The GCCSummitheldinQatarlastweekappearstohaveresolvedthedifferences.TheISexperienceshouldalsomakeArabregimesandtheirWesternpatronsfinallyrealisethatpanderingtoreligionforshort‐termgeopoliticalgainsonlycreatesFrankensteinmonstersthatdevourtheirowncreators.Thereality isthattheleadersof theArabworldhavelongbeenindenial about their own responsibility for their problems; the outside world is constantlyblamed.Thefactisthatinthepost‐WorldWarIIeramoreMuslimshavebeenkilledbyMuslimsthanbyallothersputtogether.AspertheCountryThreatIndex,amongthe10mostdangerouscountriesintheworld,9areMuslimcountriesand6ofthemareArabcountries.

West Asia in 2015

These facts have to be squarely faced. Time has come for very serious introspection. Theemergence of the IS has created that opportunity. Lasting peace in the Arab world will bepossibleonly if an ideologicalbattle iswagedandwonwithin Islam to change thepoisonousmindsets thathaveenvelopedmuchof theArabworld. Somepositive indicationsare alreadyevident in new approaches by GCC countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, bothdomesticallyandotherwise.ArabcountriesbeingoverwhelminglyMuslimcountries,politicalIslammustbegivenspaceandlegitimacy to function in domestic political processes; banning or prohibiting political Islamonlyleadstoradicalisationofthoseelementsofsocietythataremorereligiouslyinclinedthanothers.Wide‐ranging political reform processesmust also start now, concomitantly with theexecutionof thewaragainst theIS.Tunisia,wheretheArabSpringstarted,hasdemonstratedthatanewpathispossibleIslamicState:TheEfficacyofCounter‐strategies2The efficacy of the US strategy to defeat the Islamic State (IS) can only be meaningfullyevaluatedinthecontextofthecurrentregionalandinternationalgeopoliticalconfigurations.Itshouldbeself‐evidentthatthereisnopossibilityatallofanypoliticalapproachtosuccessfullyconfrontandovercomethechallengeposedtheIS.IftheISisnotdefeated,thewholesystemofnationstatesinWestAsiawillalmostsurelycrumble.Atthepresentcriticaljuncture,giventhegroundrealities in Iraq,SyriaandtheArabworld ingeneral–and internaldivisionsamongstArabstatesandbetweenArabstatesandnon‐ArabstatessuchasIranandTurkey– itshouldalsobeclearthatthereisnopossibilityofanyregionalmilitarycoalitionbeingforgedtotakeontheIS.Therefore, countries of the region have little or no choice but to have the US lead the fightagainsttheISeventhoughWashington’smilitaryentanglementsintheArabandMuslimworldshavegreatlyadverselyaffecteditscredibility,influenceandstandingintheregion;andhaveinfactbeenoneoftheprimarycausesoftheriseofIslamicextremism.Afterall,theUShasbeenthepreeminentregionalsecurityarchitectforthepastseveraldecadesandremainsthemajorweaponssuppliertoregionalcountriesbarringIranandSyria.NootherWesternornon‐regionalcountrycandoitorwillevenbewillingtoattempttodoitbythemselves; even their involvement is predicated only on the US leading the war. Australia,Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, the Netherlands and UK too have joined in conductingairstrikes in Iraq. Inabreak fromthe traditionalpolicyofnot supplyingarms tocountries inzonesofconflict,GermanywillbesupplyingarmstotheKurdistanRegionalGovernmentinIraq.Bahrain,Jordan,SaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArabEmirateshavecarriedoutairstrikesinSyria.TherearevaryingaccountsofQatar’sinvolvement.Afterdoggedlyrefusingtoallowanysupportfor anymilitary action in Iraq or Syria against the IS despite intense personal efforts by USPresident Barack Obama and the secretaries of state and defense, Turkey has reluctantlyallowedtheFreeSyrianArmyfightersandtheIraqiKurdishPeshmergatotransit itsterritoryenroutetoKobanitodislodgetheISfromthere.

2 Originally published as IPCS Commentary on 4 November 2014. See http://www.ipcs.org/article/peace‐audit‐and‐ceasefire‐monitor/islamic‐state‐the‐efficacy‐of‐counter‐strategies‐4727.html


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Thecentral featureof the strategy is to carryoutairstrikesboth in IraqandSyria initially tostop the heretofore irresistible advance of the IS and to degrade its capabilities. This hashappenedinmanysectorsifnoteverywhere.TheUSanditspartnershavebynowcarriedoutafewthousandairstrikes.However,ObamahasmadeitclearthattherewillbenoAmericanbootsontheground,meaningAmericansinthetensofthousandswillnotbethereasinthepast.Suchinvolvement will only exacerbate extremism. Another caveat is that combat activity mustabsolutely include the active involvementof regional countries.This iswhat theUShasbeenimplementing.Eventhoughitisclearthatthewarcannotbewonthroughviaairstrikesalone,therealityisthattheworldhasnobetteralternativetothisapproachforthepresent.Sofar,however,aShiitecoalition,ofIran,Hezbollah,IraqiShiamilitiasandtheIraqiandSyriangovernments, has been the main force arrayed against the IS on the ground apart fromparticularlyvaliantcontributionsbytheKurdishPeshmerga.Thuswehavethestrangescenarioof seeing theUSand Iran, SaudiArabiaand Iran, SaudiArabiaandShia ruled Iraq, theAssadregimeandthosesworntooverthrowit–SaudiArabia,TurkeyandtheUSandassortedIslamistextremistgroups,Kurdsofdifferentnationalitygroupsandfactionsperpetuallyatloggerheadswitheachother,allinthesamecampwarringagainsttheIS,tacitlycooperatingwitheachothereveniftheymoreoftenthannotpubliclydenyanyopenexplicitcollaboration.ThisisapartofthegroundrealityevenifnotaformalpartofUSstrategy.However,thefightagainsttheIScannotbecompartmentalised. Itoccupies2/5thsofthetotalterritoryofSyriaand2/5thsofthetotalterritoryof IraqandisactuallystrongerinSyria;theborderbetweenthetwocountrieshasbeenerased.TheIScannotbedefeatedinIraqwithoutbeing defeated in Syria and therefore it will have to be confronted in Syria also. Despiterecognising this as exhibited by the airstrikes in Syria, countries opposed to Assad aremaintaining that they will not cooperate with Assad in fighting the IS and will continuesupporting so called ‘moderate’ rebels by supplying arms. Such distinctions are completelyarbitraryandsubjectiveandhaveproventobecounterproductive.TheUShaspromised$500millionworthofarmsandtrainingisgoingtobeprovidedtotherebelsinSaudiArabia.ThiswillonlyexacerbateandprolongSyria’scivilwarandunderminethedireneedofaunitedresponsetotheIS.Thecoalition’spolicyapproachinSyriamaybealrightasatemporarytactic,butstrategically,itiscompletelycounterproductive.6October2014WaragainsttheIslamicState:PoliticalandMilitaryResponsesfromtheRegionStrangethingsarehappeninginWestAsia.Thosewhocreatedthemodernjihadinanextremelymisguided and immature tactical response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan are today atwarwith itsmost extremistmanifestation, the IslamicState.The latterhas also succeeded inbringingabout thealmost impossible ‐unitingcountriesandregimesdeeplyantagonisticandhostiletoeachotherinacommonwaragainstacommonenemy.TheUSandIran,SaudiArabiaand Iran, Saudi Arabia and a Shia government in Iraq, the Assad regime and those sworn tooverthrow it ‐ SaudiArabia,Turkey and theUS and assorted Islamist groups, all in the samecampwarringagainsttheIslamicState.

West Asia in 2015

TheIslamicState(IS),anextremistSunnientity,isaparticularlyseriousexistentialthreattotheregimes of the GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia, as its religious roots and those ofWahhabismarebroadlythesame.TherulersoftheGCCcountriesknowthatiftheISsucceedsinIraq,aspilloverintotheircountriesisinevitable.TheISisthusadirect,immediateandstrongexistentialchallengetothecontinuingruleoftheseregimes,somethingthathasnothappenedbefore.AfteragonizingforweekstheyhavebecomeactiveparticipantsinawaragainstaSunnientity in Shia ruled states. This is unprecedented and something that simply could not haveevenbeenimaginedonlyafewmonthsago.TheISisfanaticallyantiShia;itisalsothemostpotentthreattothepro‐IranianregimesinIraqandSyriaandtotheterritorialintegrityofIraqandSyria.ForthesethreereasonstheISisnowthesinglemostactiveandpotentdirectthreattoIran’sinfluenceandstandingthroughoutWestAsia. Iran is Iraq’s ally and is the first and only regional country that has provided actualassistanceontheground.The IS thus simultaneously poses the biggest strategic threat to both Iran and Saudi Arabia,thoughforentirelydifferentreasons.ForthefirsttimesincetheIslamicRevolutioninIranthesetwocountriesfaceacommonthreat.TheyarethetwokeyplayersifthewaragainsttheISistosucceed.Theyhavetofindawaytocooperate.ThisisgoingtobedifficultparticularlyasSaudiArabiacontinuestoattachprioritytoregimechangeinSyriawhichisabsolutelyunacceptableto Iran. A particularly important meeting was held between the Saudi and Iranian ForeignMinisters in New York on 21 September 2014. Statementsmade by them indicate that bothcountriesrecognizethattheyhavetoworktogethertoconfrontthecommonenemy.The Iraqi central Government has been opposed to the Barzani run Kurdish regionalgovernmentandIranhastraditionallybeenopposedtotheBarzani factionof theIraqiKurds.Shiamilitias have been fighting against the Kurds. TheKurds in Iraq, Syria and Turkey havenevermanagedtoputupasingleunitedoverallKurdishfront;indeedinIraqtheyaredividedintwo rival groups.But in recentweeksall of themarenow fighting together inmany theatresagainsttheIslamicState.On22September, theUnitedStates launchedair strikes against the ISIL in Syria andaircraftfrom Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE also took part in the airstrikes while Qatar“playedasupportiverole”.Arabstateshavecontinuedtobe involved insuchairstrikessincethen.Iraqwelcomedtheseairstrikeswithgreatexcitementandenthusiasm.President Assad reacted by saying that Syria “supports any international effort in the fightagainst terrorism”; Syrian Foreign Minister was supportive saying that “Syria had beeninformedbeforethestrikesbytheUnitedStates”.AnalystsonSyrianStatetelevisionsaidthatthese “air strikesdidnot constituteaggressionasSyriawas informed inadvance.”TheyhaveotherreasonsforfeelingratherpleasedbecausetheUSairstrikesinflictedsignificantcasualtieson the Khorasan group and the Jabhat Al Nusra, also fighting against the Syrian regime.Significantly, Syrian opposition National Coalition President Hadi Al Bahra said “tonight theinternationalcommunityhasjoinedourfightagainsttheISISinSyria.”


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SyriaisverykeentobeformallyapartofthecoalitionagainsttheISbutunfortunatelytheUSandGCCcountriesareadamantlyopposedtothisevenastheyaretacitlycooperatingwiththeregimedirectlyandthroughIran,incoordinatingtheairstrikesagainsttheIS.IranwouldhavebeenhappytoattendthemeetinginJeddahonSeptember11andinParisonSeptember15tojoin the international coalition to fight the Islamic State but was not invited due to USopposition. There was no blistering condemnation from Iran which would have been theautomaticreactioninthepast.Iranhasmerelysaidthatsuchactionsdonothaveinternationallegality.AfterdoggedlyrefusingtoallowanysupportforanymilitaryactioninIraqorSyriaagainsttheIslamicStatedespite intensepersonaleffortsbyPresidentObamaandtheSecretariesofStateandDefense,hoursafterthefirstairstrikesinSyriaErdogansaidinNewYorkthatTurkeywasnowconsideringarolethat"includeseverything.Bothmilitaryandpolitical…Ofcoursewewilldoourpart."ThenextfewdaysshouldseegreaterclarityaboutTurkey’sinvolvement.6October2014WaragainsttheIslamicState:PoliticalandMilitaryResponsesfromtheRegionStrangethingsarehappeninginWestAsia.Thosewhocreatedthemodernjihadinanextremelymisguided and immature tactical response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan are today atwarwith itsmost extremistmanifestation, the IslamicState.The latterhas also succeeded inbringingabout thealmost impossible ‐unitingcountriesandregimesdeeplyantagonisticandhostiletoeachotherinacommonwaragainstacommonenemy.TheUSandIran,SaudiArabiaand Iran, Saudi Arabia and a Shia government in Iraq, the Assad regime and those sworn tooverthrow it ‐ SaudiArabia,Turkey and theUS and assorted Islamist groups, all in the samecampwarringagainsttheIslamicState.TheIslamicState(IS),anextremistSunnientity,isaparticularlyseriousexistentialthreattotheregimes of the GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia, as its religious roots and those ofWahhabismarebroadlythesame.TherulersoftheGCCcountriesknowthatiftheISsucceedsinIraq,aspilloverintotheircountriesisinevitable.TheISisthusadirect,immediateandstrongexistentialchallengetothecontinuingruleoftheseregimes,somethingthathasnothappenedbefore.AfteragonizingforweekstheyhavebecomeactiveparticipantsinawaragainstaSunnientity in Shia ruled states. This is unprecedented and something that simply could not haveevenbeenimaginedonlyafewmonthsago.TheISisfanaticallyantiShia;itisalsothemostpotentthreattothepro‐IranianregimesinIraqandSyriaandtotheterritorialintegrityofIraqandSyria.ForthesethreereasonstheISisnowthesinglemostactiveandpotentdirectthreattoIran’sinfluenceandstandingthroughoutWestAsia. Iran is Iraq’s ally and is the first and only regional country that has provided actualassistanceontheground.The IS thus simultaneously poses the biggest strategic threat to both Iran and Saudi Arabia,thoughforentirelydifferentreasons.ForthefirsttimesincetheIslamicRevolutioninIranthesetwocountriesfaceacommonthreat.TheyarethetwokeyplayersifthewaragainsttheISistosucceed.Theyhavetofindawaytocooperate.ThisisgoingtobedifficultparticularlyasSaudiArabiacontinuestoattachprioritytoregimechangeinSyriawhichisabsolutelyunacceptableto Iran. A particularly important meeting was held between the Saudi and Iranian Foreign

West Asia in 2015

Ministers in New York on 21 September 2014. Statementsmade by them indicate that bothcountriesrecognizethattheyhavetoworktogethertoconfrontthecommonenemy.The Iraqi central Government has been opposed to the Barzani run Kurdish regionalgovernmentandIranhastraditionallybeenopposedtotheBarzani factionof theIraqiKurds.Shiamilitias have been fighting against the Kurds. TheKurds in Iraq, Syria and Turkey havenevermanagedtoputupasingleunitedoverallKurdishfront;indeedinIraqtheyaredividedintwo rival groups.But in recentweeksall of themarenow fighting together inmany theatresagainsttheIslamicState.On22September, theUnitedStates launchedair strikes against the ISIL in Syria andaircraftfrom Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE also took part in the airstrikes while Qatar“playedasupportiverole”.Arabstateshavecontinuedtobe involved insuchairstrikessincethen.Iraqwelcomedtheseairstrikeswithgreatexcitementandenthusiasm.President Assad reacted by saying that Syria “supports any international effort in the fightagainst terrorism”; Syrian Foreign Minister was supportive saying that “Syria had beeninformedbeforethestrikesbytheUnitedStates”.AnalystsonSyrianStatetelevisionsaidthatthese “air strikesdidnot constituteaggressionasSyriawas informed inadvance.”TheyhaveotherreasonsforfeelingratherpleasedbecausetheUSairstrikesinflictedsignificantcasualtieson the Khorasan group and the Jabhat Al Nusra, also fighting against the Syrian regime.Significantly, Syrian opposition National Coalition President Hadi Al Bahra said “tonight theinternationalcommunityhasjoinedourfightagainsttheISISinSyria.”SyriaisverykeentobeformallyapartofthecoalitionagainsttheISbutunfortunatelytheUSandGCCcountriesareadamantlyopposedtothisevenastheyaretacitlycooperatingwiththeregimedirectlyandthroughIran,incoordinatingtheairstrikesagainsttheIS.IranwouldhavebeenhappytoattendthemeetinginJeddahonSeptember11andinParisonSeptember15tojoin the international coalition to fight the Islamic State but was not invited due to USopposition. There was no blistering condemnation from Iran which would have been theautomaticreactioninthepast.Iranhasmerelysaidthatsuchactionsdonothaveinternationallegality.AfterdoggedlyrefusingtoallowanysupportforanymilitaryactioninIraqorSyriaagainsttheIslamicStatedespite intensepersonaleffortsbyPresidentObamaandtheSecretariesofStateandDefense,hoursafterthefirstairstrikesinSyriaErdogansaidinNewYorkthatTurkeywasnowconsideringarolethat"includeseverything.Bothmilitaryandpolitical…Ofcoursewewilldoourpart."ThenextfewdaysshouldseegreaterclarityaboutTurkey’sinvolvement.

IIIraq,SyriaandIran

5May2014ElectionsinIraq:UncertainProspects


14

TheUS’ unilateral invasion of Iraq in 2003, the subsequent overthrow and execution of thenPresidentSaddamHussein,andthecompletedismantlingoftheBa'athiststateapparatusleftanalreadyemaciatedIraq–tooveradecadeofWesternsanctions–incompleteshambles.TheUSmilitary occupation and rule could not prevent Iraq from degenerating into a completelyfracturedcountrywithdeepethnic,regionalandsectarianfaultlines.Thedeathtollinsectarianconflictandterroristattacksisconsistentlyrising,andhasreacheditshighest levelssincetheworstof thesectarianstrifes in2006and2007;UNestimatessuggestthat8,868peoplewerekilledin2013.AccordingtotheMinistryofInteriorofIraq,1,666peoplehavediedinthefirstquarterof2014,andinAprilalone1,009peoplewerekilled.Thefiguresmightbehighergiventhatdatafromtheterrorisminfested,SunnicontrolledAnbarregionhaven’tbeenincluded.Itwasinthisbackdropthatthe29Aprilparliamentaryelections–thefirstafterthewithdrawaloftheUStroopsthreeyearsago–wereheld.Giventhegrim,chaosinfestedaftermathoftheso‐calledArabSpring,itisamajoraccomplishmentthattheelectionswereheldatall.Despitetheaforementionedcontexts,inmanypartsofthecountryandespeciallyinBaghdad,violencewassurprisingly low on the Election Day. According to Iraq’s Independent Election Commission,therewasa60percentvoterturnoutandthisshouldbeconsideredamatterofconsiderablesatisfaction,ifnotcelebration.PrimeMinisterNourial‐Maliki,inpowersince2006,isrunningforathirdterm.Thisyeartherewasno Iranianpush fora singleShiitecoalition. Instead, thereareat least threemajorShiitelists, associatedwithMaliki,Ammar al‐Hakimand the Sadrists respectively, apart fromothersmallerentities.TherearemanySunnientitiesinthefraybuttheyappearunableandunlikelytoputupaunitedfront.Infact,comparedtothe2010electionswheretherewere86competinggroups, thereare107politicalgroups in2014.Also,contraryto7,000candidates inthe2010elections, the 2014 elections have over 9,000 candidates. The increase in the number ofcandidates and lists can be attributed to defections and disintegrations among the biggeralliances. In 2010, Kurdish support finally tilted the scales in Maliki’s favour but given theMaliki’s steadily deteriorating personal relationship with the central government and theKurdishRegionalGovernment,thisseemsunlikelythistimeunlessMalikicanpulloffamagicaleleventh hour coup.However, givenMaliki’s hold on various constitutional entities, he couldmanipulateeventsandenticesupporttostayinpower.Giventhemultiplicityofpartiesandfactionsinthecountry,ittakesmonthstocobbletogetheragovernment,andtherefore,theworldwillhavetowaitforthefinaloutcome;butitisdifficulttoenvisage thewilyMaliki being outwitted. Iraqneeds a strong leader for the immediate shortterm and for all of Maliki’s increasing authoritarianism and undoubted shortcomings as hismanycriticsrightlycontend, it’s likelythatnoothercontenderwouldhavedoneanybetterintheutterlychaoticsituationthecountrywasin.Regardlessofwhathappens,theremustbenoforeigninterference–therootcauseofwhythesituationissobadinthefirstplace.TheUSandIranarethetwomostinfluentialpowersincontemporaryIraq.ThoughMalikihasnotbeenthefirstchoiceofeitherpartyinthepast,andhehasshownthatheisbynomeansapawnofeither; ironicallybothconsiderhiman ‘ally’. It is importantthatwhoeveremergesasthe PrimeMinister has the tacit approval of both the US and Iran; absent that, the situationwithinthecountrycouldbecomemuchworse.Havingsaidthis,itisnotunlikelythatthistimearoundtoo,theirbackstageinfluencewouldlikelybeusedultimatelyinMaliki’sfavour.

West Asia in 2015

MalikisuccessfullymanagedtoholdanArabLeagueSummitinBaghdadinMarch2012–forthefirsttimesince1990,andonlythesecondtimeinthecountry'shistory.Significantly,theEmirofKuwaitpersonallyattendedtheSummit,andwastheonlyGCCleadertodoso.Sincethentherelationshipbetweenthetraditionallyantagonisticcountrieshasimproveddramatically.Earlierthisyear,IranandIraqannouncedthattheyhaveagreedtoimplementthehistoric1975AlgiersAgreementtoregulatetheirlandandriverbordersand,mostimportantly,todredgetheShatt‐al‐Arabriver.Bilateraltradestoodat$12billionin2013,makingIraqoneofIran’ss,andIraq is the most significant export market for Iran’s non‐oil trade. Furthermore, Iraq hadstepped forward proactively to fill the breach when India’s imports from Iran significantlydeclinedduetosanctions.Thisispragmatismnotsubordination.Saudi Arabia is andwill remain antagonistic towards any Shia dispensation in Iraq. Turkey’srelationswithIraqhavedeterioratedagreatdeal,partlyduetoitsdirectoilandotherdealingswiththeKurdishRegionalGovernmentandpartlyduetoIraqbeingperceivedasawillingandcooperativeconduitformenandarmstoaidPresidentBasharal‐AssadinSyria.Otherwise,IraqhasgoodrelationswithallothercountriesincludingIndia.7April2014NuclearIran:WillObamaSucceed?EventhoughIranhadsignedtheNuclearNonproliferationTreatyin1967,ithadbeenpursuingaclandestinenuclearprogrammesincethemid‐1980s,whichbecamepublicknowledgein2002through defectors. The program was put on fast forward during President Ahmedinejad’speriod.On‐off negotiations with the IAEA and Western countries, an escalating sanctions regimeparticularlysince2006,Iran’seconomyslidingintodeepdepressionrapidly,risingpossibilitiesofIsraelimilitaryaction,etc.,failedtopersuadethecontendingpartiestoreachanysolution.Aprogressivelydeterioratingsecurityscenario‐postArabSpring‐inWestAsiaseemedpoisedtoworsenfurther.OmanasaMediatorOmanhastraditionallyhadacloserelationshipwithIranbothduringtheShah’stimeandafterthe 1979 Revolution and has acted as a conduit between the US and Iran. According towellfoundedspeculationOmanhadbeenmediatingsecretinteractionbetweentheUSandIranforseveralmonthsbeforeRouhani’spresidency. SultanQaboos visited Iranduring25‐27August2013,threeweeksafterRouhanibecamethePresidentaddingcredencetoreportsthathehadcarriedacommunicationfromPresidentObamatoRouhani.DevelopmentsunderRouhaniAmoderatecleric,aquintessential insiderandpersonallyclosetoSupremeLeaderKhamanei,Dr.HassanRouhani,withamoreconciliatoryapproachto theworldandgreater transparencyonthenuclearprogram,waselectedIran’sPresidentinJune2013byanabsolutemajorityaftera72%turnout.


16

ProvidingfurtherreassurancetotheUS,MohammadJavadZarif,whospent12yearsstudyingintheUSandiswellknownandlikedintheWest,wasappointedForeignMinister;hewasmaderesponsiblefornegotiationsoverIran'snuclearprogram.ThechoiceofnewincumbentsfortheHeadoftheAtomicEnergyCommission,AmbassadortotheIAEAandtotheUNreinforcedthepositivemessage.Syria,USandRussia:TheIranAngleDespiteintensecriticismbothdomesticallyandinternationally,ObamaheldbackfrommilitaryinterventionaftertheAugust21,2013chemicalsweaponsattackinSyria.On9September2013RussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrovproposedthatSyriashouldagreetoplaceitschemicalweaponsunderinternationalcontrol,dismantlethem,andagreetothedestructionoftheentirestockpile. Syria immediately accepted the proposal and acceded to the Chemical WeaponsConventionon12September.On14September,theUSandRussiareachedanagreementrelatingtothedismantlingofSyria’schemical weapons arsenal. The implementation of the agreement is underway under theauspices of OPCW and monitoring of the United Nations. Since Syria is Iran’s closest ally,Obama’scommendablerestraintwastheabsolutelyessentialreassurancethatIranneededatacritical juncture that theUS is sincere in theoverturesbeingmade to reacha solution to thenuclearissue.As Eisenhower after Korea and Nixon after Vietnam had done, Obama in his second term isdetermined to avoid newmilitary engagements abroad and focus on rebuilding the nation’seconomy and international esteem. All American troops are likely to be withdrawn fromAfghanistan before the end of this year. In his 2014 State of theUnion address he said “In aworldofcomplexthreats,oursecuritydependsonallelementsofourpower…includingstrongandprincipleddiplomacy”.TheObamaDoctrineaccordingprioritytodiplomacybodeswellforatroubledworldandisalsoinsyncwiththeAmericanpeople’sviews.Towardsageopoliticalbreakthrough?AlltheabovefactorshavemadeasubstantivethawbetweenIranandtheWest.Therehasbeenan unprecedented meaningful interaction between the two sides. On 26 September 2013,IranianForeignMinisterJavadZarifmettheForeignMinistersoftheP‐5+1onthesidelinesofthe U.N. General Assembly. On 27 September, President Obama spoke on the phone withPresidentRouhanianddiscussedIran’snuclearprogramandsaidthathewaspersuadedtherewasabasisforanagreement.SignificantlychoosingtospeakinEnglish,Iran’sForeignMinisteroutlinedadetailedproposaltorepresentatives of the P 5 +1 on Oct 15‐16 at Geneva. All parties declared they were verysatisfiedwith these first formalnegotiations since theRouhani’s election.After intense4daynegotiations,onNov24thmorningagreementonaninterimframeworktowardreachingalong‐termcomprehensivesolutionto Iran'snuclearprogramwasannounced.Thiscame intoeffectfrom20Januaryandisvalidforsixmonths.Underthisdeal,theIAEAhasconfirmedthatIranbegan curbinguraniumenrichment, suspended itsmost sensitivenuclear developmentwork,andplaceditsnuclearsectorunderheretoforeunprecedentedinternationalscrutiny.

West Asia in 2015

InreturntheEUandtheUShaveeasedsomesanctionsallowinglimitedincreasesinexportsofoilandpetrochemicalsandreleased$4.20billionofIran’sfrozenoilassets.Theatmosphericsofnegotiationsduring January‐Marchhave remainedverypositive. In themeantime the IranianForeignMinisterhadarareandencouragingone‐to‐onemeetingwiththeUSSecretaryofStateand similarmeetingswith the other five ForeignMinisters atMunich on the sidelines of theannual Security Conference in early February. The UK has posted a CDA in Tehran; ForeignMinisters of Belgium, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the EU Foreign Policy chief Katherine AshtonhavevisitedIran.Negotiationsaregoing tobedifficult and challenging and success cannotbeassumedbut theworldisontheanvilofaspectaculargeopoliticalbreakthrough.3February2014SyriaToday:IsRegimeChangetheAnswer?Thereare threeaspectsof theSyrian imbroglio:First,whatwasoriginallyapolitical strugglehasbecomeaprogressivelymoredevastatingcivilwar.Second,thosefightingagainsttheAssadregimehavefragmented intoseveraldistinctandcontendingelements‐theWesternandGulfcountries’backedSyrianNationalCoalition,nowtheweakestoftheoppositiongroupsintermsof fighting ability; a large array of Islamist groups, many armed and funded by Qatar, SaudiArabia and Turkey, significant numbers of whom have come together under two differentIslamistfronts;theNabhatAlNusrah,aneffectivefightingunitlargelycomposedofSyriansbutanaffiliateofAlQaeda;and,theIslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL),anAlQaedaoutfit,consistingmainlyofIraqis,themostextremist,brutalandeffectivefightingunit,whoseagendagoes much beyond the mere removal of Assad and is the establishment of a fundamentalistIslamist Emirate. The involvement of so many different groups makes the possibility of anysolutionverydifficult.Third, theactive involvementof foreigncountries–France, Iran,Qatar,Russia,SaudiArabia,Turkey,UKand theUS; thishas leddirectly toSyriagetting to thepointwhereitisnow.Theenormouscomplexityofthesituationshouldbeselfevident.Thoseadvocating regimechangeneed to seriouslyponderover the fact that that the internalsituationtodayinbothIraqandLibyaisfarworsethanitwaswhenSaddamandGaddhafiwerein power. Intrusive military interventions by foreign countries in Libya and Iraq are notexamples tobeemulatedbutshunned. Indeed,externallyencouragedefforts towardsregimechangeinArabcountriesmuststopforthwith.GiventhecurrentgroundrealitiesinSyriaanditsdiverse ethnic and sectarian makeup, regime change in Syria could lead to a much worseoutcomethaninthosetwocountries,eventhebreakupofthecountrywithdeeplydestabilizingconsequencesfortheLevantasawhole.In the past yearAssadhas regained a lot of lost ground.All other opposition rebels are nowspendinggreatereffortfightingtheISILconsideringitamoredetestableanddangerousenemythantheAssadregime.TheveryrecentTurkishairstrikeonaconvoyoftheISILandPremierErdogan’svisittoIransuggestthatTurkeyisrethinkingitspolicyinSyria.Thereisincreasingreluctance of Western countries’ to aid rebels fearing that arms will fall into the hands ofextremist groups. Thus, Assad is much stronger today vis‐a‐vis both his domestic andinternational adversaries than in June 2012 when the first Geneva conference “agreed onguidelines andprinciples forapolitical transition thatmeets the legitimateaspirationsof the


18

Syrian people”. It is now increasingly highly unlikely that Assad can be defeated on thebattleground.Therefore,heishardlylikelytoagreetohishandingoverpowerinaconferenceroom.Pursuingregimechangenowisanobrainer.Humanitarian issues such as ensuring that aid should reach themillions in dire distress andurgentlyattendingtothedesperateconditionsofthe4millionplusinternallydisplacedshouldbeaccordedtoppriority.Thesecondprioritymustbeaddressingthegrowingviolencemuchofwhich,forallpracticalpurposes,hasnowmorphedintopureterrorism.GenevaIIcanbesaidtorepresentthebeginningofapeaceprocessandanencouragingsignisagreementthatthenextmeetingwillbeheldstartingFeb10th.AnotherhopefulfeatureofGenevaIIwas,inthewordsofUNmediatorLakhdarBrahimi,“thereisofcourseagreement(amongstthefightingentities)thatterrorism…isaveryseriousprobleminsideSyriabutthere'snoagreementonhowtodealwithit”.AnothergoodomenisthatbothsidesofinternalSyrianconflictobservedaminutessilencetogethertorememberthosekilled.Nowthatadoorhasbeenopened, thewarringpartieswithinSyrianeed topursue these twoissues on a priority basis. However, the boycott of hard line extremists suggests that in theunlikelyeventofanyagreement,itsimplementationwouldbesabotaged.Thisisariskthatwillhavetobetakenandshouldnotbecomeanexcusefornoaction.IranwasnotrepresentedeventhoughtheUNSecretaryGeneralhadinvitedit;theinvitehadtobewithdrawnduetostrongUSopposition. Irancommandsthegreatest influencewithAssad;IranandRussiaactingintandemaretheonlytwocountriesthatcanpersuadeAssadtomakemeaningfulcompromises.Iran’sparticipationthereforeisabsolutelyvitaltothesuccessofanyconferenceonSyria.Anagreementamongstthemainplayers–thepatronsofthedifferentcontendingpartieswithinSyria: the P‐ 5, EU, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey ‐ on a common approach is aprerequisite.Thereforeaseparateconference involving themshouldbeheldsoonestpossiblecomplementingaresumptionoftheGenevaIItalksonFebruary10.AprioritysubjectshouldbetakingontheISILandsimilarextremistgroupsheadon.

IIIRestoftheArabWorld

13January2014TheArabWorld:TryingTimesAheadThoughthespotlightonWestAsiaisunderstandablyfocusedcurrentlyontheunquestionablyexcitingprospectofawelcomeanddesirablereconciliationbetweentheUSandIran,whichismorethan likely tohappen,contemporarygroundrealitiesandtrends in largesectionsof theArab World increasingly suggest that Islamic extremism, personified by al Qaeda and itsaffiliatesinWestAsia,ispotentiallyanevengreaterdestabilisingfactorthanthestandoffvis‐à‐visIranhadbeen.Egypt,Libya,TunisiaandYemen

West Asia in 2015

Though four dictators were overthrown as a result of the revolutionary turmoil in the ArabWorld, except in tiny Tunisiawhich is the only success story, the current situation in Egypt,Libya and Yemen is farmore unstable thanwhen the dictatorswere ruling. In Libya, a largenumber of armed militias have carved out fiefdoms which they control, with the centralgovernmentbecominganominalentitywithitswritbeingvirtuallynon‐existentinvastswathesofthecountry.LibyaisaSomaliainthemaking.The Muslim Brotherhood has been Egypt’s and the Arab world’s pre‐eminent Islamic entityknown for its outstanding social and welfare services to the poor and rural populations inparticular. It was elected to form the government which, after only one year in power, wasoverthrownbythearmy,albeitdemandedbyaverylargenumberofprotestorsagainst‘Islamic’rule. Since then, every week dozens of its supporters and many Egyptian army and policepersonnelhavebeenkilledinclashesbetweenthem.TheBrotherhoodhasbeenbannedonceagain‐dubbedaterroristorganisation; thisdoesnotaugurwellfortheprospectsofpoliticalIslamwhichisnaturalandfundamentaltothesuccessofdemocracy in the overwhelmingly Muslim Arab countries. It is very likely that Gen Sisi, thepresentArmyChiefandarchitectof thehard lineagainst theBrotherhood, iselectedthenextPresident. All this will encourage support for extremist groups as the only alternative todictatorialandArmyrule.IraqandSyriaSyria is engulfed by a particularly devastating and destructive civil war.More than 1,20,000peoplehavebeenkilled.AlmostfourmillionSyriansarerefugeesinneighboringcountriesandfivemillion havebeen internally displaced. The dismantling of the Saddam regime led to theborderbetweenSyriaandIraqbecomingporous;inthelastyearithasbecomenonexistentforallpracticalpurposes–hugespacesbetweenBaghdadandDamascusarecontrolledbymanydifferentgroupsof Islamist fightersofvarioushues,pre‐eminentamong thembeing the Iraq‐basedIslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL),analQaedaoutfit.Amongst Islamist groups fighting the Assad regime, the ISIL is the best armed and mosteffective.SomeweeksagoithadestablishedcontrolovermostofAleppowhichisSyria’slargestcityandintheprocessroutednotonlygovernmentforcesbutalsoofotherrebelgroups,andoftheWesternandGulfcountries’backedSyrianNationalCoalitionandSyrianNationalArmy.TheISILconsistsonlyofforeigners,mainlyIraqis,anditsbrutalityandsingle‐mindedcommitmenttotheestablishmentofanIslamicEmiratehasnowcausedotherrebelgroups,inparticulartherecently formed Islamic Front, and the Syrian affiliate of the al Qaeda, the alNusra Front, totreattheISILasthemajorenemyratherthantheAssadregime.ItisironicalthataftersomuchbloodshedAssad is likely to remain in power, but of an anarchic and shattered Syria. Iraq israpidlyslippingbackintotheanarchythatprevailedduring2005to2008.AfterArabSpring:IstheSituationBetterorWorseToday?Politicswithin all these countries is increasingly determined by the gun. Thus, the singularlyinappropriately termed ‘Arab Spring’, hailed as the belated ‘Enlightenment Moment’ for theArabWorld,has left it inafarworsesituationthanbefore. IslamintheArabWorldandWestAsia is at war with itself ‐ between moderates and extremists; between Shias and Sunnis;


20

betweenpro‐WestMuslimcountries(SaudiArabia,Qatar,UAE)andanti‐WestMuslimcountries(Iran,Syria,Lebanon).Today,severalcountriesoftheArabworldhavebecomeabloodsoakedcauldronofbigotryandhatetornbysectarianviolence.Ifthisfratricidalconflictcontinues,significantportionsofIraq,Libya, Syria andYemen could become like theAfghanistan of the 1980s and early 1990s – asafe‐havenandbreedinggroundforterrorists.ShouldSouthAsia,especiallyIndia,beWorried?ThoughtheArabcountriesthemselvesaretheworstaffected,adverseconsequencesfortheUS,EuropeandtheIndiansubcontinentinparticular,wouldalsobeverymuchonthecards.Thisisparticularly so in the context of rising uncertainties as towhat could happen in AfghanistanafterthewithdrawalofUStroops.Pakistanhasbecomeadangeroushotbedofextremismalso.Indianeedstobeparticularlywary.The world needs to proactively address the current mayhem in West Asia with a sense ofurgency. The imperative need of the hour is that the United Nations takes the initiative toconvene a conference of concerned countries andmajor powers to take on extremism in theArabWorldandWestAsia,includingconfrontingthealQaedaoutfitsheadlong,militarilyifneedbe.

IVUSandWestAsia

3March2014SaudiArabia‐USEstrangement:ImplicationsfortheIndianSubcontinentTheArabSpringstronglycompoundedSaudiArabia’sprogressivelyincreasingdisillusionmentwith the US when, to its utter consternation and deep anger, the US failed to prevent theoverthrowofMubarak,afaithfulallyformorethanthreedecades.UScriticismofGenAlSissi’soverthrowing of the Muslim Brotherhood government of President Morsy and cutting offeconomicandmilitaryassistanceaddedfueltothefire.TheWest’sholdingbackofarmssupplies to rebels fightingagainst theAssadregime inSyriaandtheUSdecisionnottotakemilitaryactionagainstitforbreachingapubliclyannouncedred‐line, the use of chemical weapons, added to Saudi Arabia’s growing anger. After thesedisappointments,thesuddenopeningofnegotiationsonthenuclearissuewithIran,therapiditywithwhichaninterimagreementwasreachedandthecontinuingpursuitofathawinrelationswith Iranrepresent inSaudieyesawillfuldisregardof itssecurityconcernsandsensitivities.SaudiArabiahasmaintainedthatnoagreementwillconstrainthenuclearprogrammeandIranwouldstillbeabletomakethebombveryquicklyshoulditfinallydecidetodoso.From2009,SaudiArabiastartedsendingsignalsfromtheKingdownwardsandhasmorethanonce since thenstatedpublicly that in theevent Iranacquires the capability tomakenuclearweapons,SaudiArabiawilldosoalso.

West Asia in 2015

Pakistan‐Iranrelationshavebeenwitnessingaseriousdownturninthepastfewmonths–Iranhas threatenedmilitary intervention tosecure thereleaseof itssecuritypersonneland in thecontextofthecontinuingkillingofShias;Iranhascancelledthemuchflauntedgaspipeline,etc.AflurryofexchangeofvisitsbetweenPakistanandSaudiArabiaarecoincidentallytakingplaceduringthisdownturn.SaudiForeignMinisterPrinceSaud’ssuddenvisittoPakistaninJanuary2014followedverysoonthereafterbythenewPakistaniArmyChief’svisittoSaudiArabiaandnowPrinceSalmanchoosingPakistanasthefirstcountrytovisitafterbecomingCrownPrinceandDefenceMinisterhasprompteda lotof speculative commentary in theWestern strategiccommunity.ThosewhocloselyfollowSaudiArabia’srelationswithSouthAsiabelievethattheSaudiArabia‐funded Pakistani nuclear programme and payback time may be approaching. Saudi DefenceMinister Prince Sultan was given privileged and complete access to Pakistani nuclearinstallationsin1999(andagainin2002)andsoonthereafterDrAQKhanvisitedSaudiArabia.US experts such as Bruce Reidel andGary Saymore,who should know, say that a secret andlong‐standing agreement exists that Pakistan would provide the Kingdom with nucleartechnology and weapons should Saudi Arabia feel threatened by a third party nuclearprogramme.ThiswouldinevitablyinvitestrongreactionsfromtheUSandIranandwouldalsoalmost surely evoke strong opposition from China which would not want to jeopardise itsoverarchingrelationshipwiththeUSforanissuefarremovedfromitscorenationalinterests.BothPakistanandSaudiArabiahavestronglydeniedanysuchintentionandalsoreportsthatPakistan will, at Saudi request, be supplying sophisticated weapons to rebels in Syria – thiswould greatly anger Iran but will hardly make a difference in Syria. However, both thesecontingenciesareunlikelytohappen.ItisfarmorelikelythatthesevisitsareinthecontextofthedomesticsituationinSaudiArabia.ThesearedelicateandsensitivetimesinSaudiArabia–CrownPrinceSultanandCrownPrinceNayefpassedawayinquicksuccessioninOctober2011andJune2012respectively;theKingisin hismid‐nineties and his health is fragile; CrownPrince Salman’s health is not particularlyrobust; Saudi Arabia is approaching uncharted territory in relation to the succession to thethrone. Massive unemployment, the popular appeal of the Arab Spring, Sunni Islamicextremism, Shia restiveness particularly in the oil‐rich eastern provinces, are factors thatpresent serious putative security concerns. Given the one‐of‐its‐kind rather unique Saudi‐Pakistan relationship, assertively Sunni Pakistanmay be the perfect security partner to helpmeet internal threats.Western security partners cannot be usedwhile Arabs will always bemoreproblematicandrisky.CrownPrinceSalmanalsopaidahighlysatisfyingthree‐dayvisittoIndiaduringwhichanMoUon defence cooperation was amongst agreements signed which build upon the relationshipspeltoutintheDelhiDeclarationof2006andtheRiyadhDeclarationof2010,bothlandmark,path‐breakingdocumentssignedpersonallybyKingAbdullahwith the IndianPrimeMinister.Theseestablishedawide‐rangingstrategicpartnership.An Indian defenceminister had paid a first‐ever visit to Saudi Arabia in 2012. In contrast toPakistan, the interaction with India is in the context of tentative beginnings of a potentialreorientationofSaudiforeignpolicytomoveawayfromcompleteandtotaldependenceonthe


22

US.PrinceSaudAl‐Faisal,theSaudiForeignMinister,hadgivenathoughtprovokingspeechinManama, Bahrain, on 5 December 2004. The subject was ‘Towards a New Framework forRegionalSecurity’.Hesaid, interalia, that "the international componentof thesuggestedGulfsecurity framework should engage positively the emerging Asian powers as well, especiallyChinaandIndia."Sincethen,thisthemeisincreasinglyreiteratedbyleadingSaudipersonalities.

VIndiaandWestAsia

2June2014LookingWest:BridgingtheGulfwiththeGCCForapotentialglobalpowerlikeIndiaclearlyrelationswithChinaandtheUSareexceedinglyimportant. Relations with Japan have acquired great strategic significance. Israel is a veryvaluable defence and high technology partner and the relationship deserves high prioritycultivation.RussiaandtheEUwillremainimportantpartners.AfricaandASEANcountrieshavetheirrespective intrinsic importance.Thenewgovernmenthasalreadyexhibitedphenomenalforesight in inviting the heads of State or government of SAARC countries to the PrimeMinister’s swearing in ceremony, thereby emphasising the primary importance of theimmediateneighbourhood.Themediaandthink‐tankshavebeenbusymakingrecommendations.However,nomentionhasbeenmade at all of the absolutely enormous strategic importance of the six GCC countries –Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE ‐ to India. In fact, if the baskets ofstrategicintereststhatIndiahasvis‐à‐visdifferentregionsoftheworldarecompared,theGCCcountrieswouldbenearthetopofanytheoreticalhierarchy,rankingdifferentregionsfromtheperspectiveofIndia’snationalwell‐beingandnationalinterestsfortheimmediatefuture.ThisregionisalsotheheartlandofIslam.TheWesternmediaandevenmanygovernmentshavedeliberatelyprojectedanegativeimageof the new PrimeMinister as being anti‐Muslim. This falsitymust be contested. This furtherunderlines the importance of the relationshipwith theGCC countries. The Islamic dimensionhas acquired strategic significance from an altogether different context also arising fromviolence associatedwith Islamic extremism. Therefore, there can be no two views that IndianeedstohavethebestpossiblerelationswiththeGCCcountries;thisisofthehigheststrategicimportance.EverycountryhasalistofprioritiesandclearlyforIndianurturingthisrelationshipmustrankamongsttheverytop.Thisissubstantiatedinthefollowingparagraphs.ForIndiatobecomeaglobalpoweritmustgrowat8‐10percentannuallyforthenextthree‐fourdecades.Theassuredavailabilityofadequateenergyresourceswillbethekeyfactor.Two‐thirdsofIndia’stotaloilimportsarefromtheGulfregion,withhalfofthetotalbeingfromtheGCCcountries.Despitehavinga special relationshipwithPakistan,noneof theGCC countriesever stopped oil exports to India or even threatened to do so through the different Indo‐Pakistaniwars.Theyvoluntarilysteppedintomakeuptheshortfallswheneversuppliesweretemporarilydisrupted,egin1990‐91andin2003.SaudiArabiaisthelargestsupplierofoilandQatarthelargestsupplierofgastoIndia.

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India’s total tradewith theGCCcountries in2012‐13atUS$159.14billionmade them India’slargestregionaltradingblocbyfar.ThishasbeenIndia’sfastestgrowingtraderelationship.TheUAE is India’s largest tradingpartner – just India’s exports to theUAE aremore than India’stotaltradewitheachofthecountriesoftheworldexceptwithChina,theUSandSaudiArabia;SaudiArabiaisIndia’sfourthlargesttradingpartnerandalsothelargestsupplierofoiltoIndia– just India’s exports to Saudi Arabia aremore than India’s total trade with such importantcountriessuchasFrance,Thailand,Italy,Russia,Israel,etc.TheGCCcountriesarehometomorethansevenmillionIndianpassportholders.Theyarethesourceofverysubstantial inwardremittances,totalingaboutUS$30‐35billionlastyear.Forademocracy, thedomesticpolitical implicationsof thesafetyandwelfareofsuchahuge Indianpassport‐holding community being located abroad in a cohesive politico‐geographical but apotentiallyvolatilearea,is,byitselfstandalone,anextremelyimportantfactor.DespitePakistan’sstrenuousefforts,anti‐terrorismcooperationfromSaudiArabiaandtheUAEhas been particularly noteworthy. Both these countries havemade combating violent Islamicextremismaprioritypolicyobjective.SomeGCCcountrieshaveabsolutelyhugeSovereignWealthFunds,someofwhichtheywishtoinvest inIndia–butIndianeedstocreateaninvestmentfriendlyenvironmentwhichthenewgovernmentisalreadycommittedtodoing.Itmeritsmentionthatintheoverallprocess,thepotentialhurdleofthespecialrelationshipthathasexistedbetweentheGCCcountriesandPakistan,particularlybetweenSaudiArabiaandtheUAEandPakistan,hasbeenskillfullybypassed.Neitherhas India’s closedefence relationshipwithIsraelbeenahurdle.ItispossibletocreatevirtuallyirrevocablesymbioticstrategicbondswiththeGCCcountriesbyIndia contributing to providing food security for the GCC countries ‐ a preeminent strategicpriorityforthem.GCCcountries,flushwithfunds,couldgetstrategicallyinvolvedthroughlargescaleinvestmentinIndia’sagri‐foodeconomy.Inreturn,Indiawouldbenefitenormouslyinthefoodsectortooapartfromensuringitsenergysecurity.AdetailedproposalhasbeensubmittedtotheMinistryofExternalAffairs.Whenrelationsareexcellent, there isanunderstandable tendencyon thepartof thepoliticalleadershiptotaketherelationshipforgranted.Thenewgovernmentcanill‐affordtodoso.NoPrimeMinisterialvisit totheUAEhastakenplacesince1982.Thisglaring lacunamustbesetright in2014. It is important that there shouldbe abilateralmeetingwith the SaudiKingorheadofdelegationattheannualG20meetingsonaregularbasis.4August2014IndiaandtheConflictinGazaThe creation of Israel in Palestine was a Western venture to expiate their guilt for theirhistorical ill treatment of the Jews, and, at the time it was finally done, also to implant apermanent base for safeguarding their own interests for the future in the vital West Asianregion.TheWestern‘divideandrule’policiesandthearbitrarydrawingofboundarieswereat


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theheartofimperialcontrolofcolonisedpeoplesandterritories.Thelegacythereofcontinues.Unfortunately,historyandinternationalrelationsarenotaboutfairnessbutabouttheexerciseofpowerinone’sowninterest.Meanwhile,Israelhasbecomefullyintegratedeconomicallyandpoliticallyintotheinternationalcomity of nations.Many non‐Western countries, includingChina and India, havedeveloped astrong relationship with Israel. The leading Arab country, Egypt, and Jordan have haddiplomatic and stronger than merely normal relations with Israel for decades; Turkey hadexceptionallycloserelationswithIsraeluntilafewyearsago;sodidIranundertheShah;Omanand Qatar have had quasi‐diplomatic relations with Israel; Tunisia and Morocco have hadinteractionswithIsrael;severalGCCcountries,andSaudiArabiainparticular,haveencouragedan increasingly close working relationship between their intelligence services and that ofIsrael’s,especiallyoverthepastthree‐fouryears.Thecurrenthostilities inGazaareessentiallyawarbetweenHamasandIsraelandnotawarbetween IsraelandPalestine; that ishowgovernmentsofmanyArabcountriesaswellas thePalestinianNationalAuthorityareviewingtheconflict;andthey,notexcludingFatah,arealsotreating it as an intrinsic element of the current strong confrontation between the MuslimBrotherhood,ofwhichHamas is anoffshoot, and itsArabopponents.EgyptandSaudiArabiaconsider Hamas a terrorist organisation. In strong contrast to each of the earlier suchconfrontations,except forQatar’ssupport,Hamas ispolitically isolated in theArabworld thistime.AnotherstumblingblockisthatHamasdoesnotofficiallyrecognisetheexistenceofIsrael.Theuncomfortabletruthisthateachoftheseparties,withoutexception,iscynicallypursuingitsownbroadergeopoliticalagenda.Theminimumfundamentalrequirementformeaningful forwardmovementonthePalestinianissue,includingtheliftingoftheIsraelieconomicblockadeofGaza,issubstantiveunityamongsttheArabs.TheArabworldhasenormousfinancialcloutwhichhasneverbeenconcertedlyusedfor the Palestinian cause. In the absence of this, the rest of the non‐Western world cannotmeaningfullypressuriseIsrael.ItisallthesefactorsthathavemadepossibleIsraelgettingawaywiththeextremebrutalityofitscurrentonslaughtonGaza.This broad brush backdrop must be kept in mind in evaluating India’s policy in relation toongoingeventsinGaza.What is the objective of a foreign policy? It should primarily be to promote and protect thecountry’s national interests, national security and national welfare. An important guidingprinciplemustbetoavoidtakingstancesthatwillhavezeroimpactonrealitiesonthegroundbutwhichcouldadverselyaffectimportantbilateralrelationships.Thoughdifficult,emotionandideologicalbiasesmustbeeschewed.TheestablishmentofdiplomaticrelationswithIsraelin1992wasarightdecisioncourageouslytakenbytheNarasimhaRaoGovernmentaspartofasorelyneededrevampofIndia’seconomicand foreign policies. Since then, Israel has emerged as a particularly important defenceequipmentsupplierandamulti‐sectoralhi‐techpartnerofvitalstrategicsignificance.However,

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thishasnotcomeinthewayofIndiamaintainingexcellentrelationshipswithArabcountriesingeneral; and with the GCC countries, in particular, the latter developed mainly in the pastdecade and a half. This relationship is in fact India’smost spectacular foreign policy success.Meanwhile,IndiacontinuesitsstrongtraditionalsupportforthePalestiniancauseconsciously,deliberatelyandrightly.Thereisnocontradictioninsimultaneouslypursuingtheseapproachesthatarepolitico‐strategicimperativesforIndia.InthecontextofthecurrentcrisisinGaza,IndiahasmaintainedcompletecontinuitywithpaststancesinrelevantinternationalforaandinstatementsmadebytheMinistryofExternalAffairs(MEA).Nevertheless, India’sreactionsandpolicieshavecomein forstrongdomesticcriticismfocused on two counts: first, regardingmention of the use of rockets by Hamas in theMEAspokesperson’ statement of July 10. In 2008, when Israeli retaliatory actions killed 1417Palestiniansinamuchshorterconflict,itwasmentionedintheMEAspokesperson’sstatementon27December2008.Bothtimes,thesestatementsaccordedfactuallywithobservablegroundrealities.AnotherreasonforcriticismisrejectionofademandforaParliamentaryResolution;therewasneitherademandnoranyinitiativeforaresolutionwhentheUPAgovernmentwasinpower.Itiswrongtopoliticise issuesofnational interest.Adoptingresolutionson foreignpolicy issuesshouldbeavoidedasitdoesnotpromotesolutionsbutonlyconstrainsgovernmentalflexibilityandoptions.However,discussionsintheparliamentshouldnotbeprevented.TherehavebeendemandstostopbuyingmilitaryequipmentfromIsrael.ThiswouldhurtIsraelonly marginally but will be an utterly devastating self‐inflicted wound on ourselves; and noIndiangovernmenthasorshouldconsidersuchanutterlyabsurdandirresponsibleproposal.India’sstance ishighlyunlikely toadverselyaffectrelationswith importantArabcountriesasthesearebasedonsymbioticmutuallybeneficialpragmatism,notemotion.7July2014IndiainIraq:NeedforBetterFocusThoughIraqhasbeenaparticularlygoodandpoliticallysupportivefriendandhadepisodicallybeenthetopoilsuppliertoIndiainthepast,relationsperforcestartedlosingmomentuminthewakeoftheUSpoliciesafterIraq’sinvasionofKuwait;finally,IndialostinterestinIraqaftertheUSinvadeditin2003–somuchsothattherewasnoIndianambassadorinBaghdadfrom2005‐2011.Iraqhassuddenlydominated Indianpublicattention for thepastmonthwith India’s24x7TVnewschannelsorchestratingashrillcampaignhighlightingthewoesofthefamiliesof40IndianconstructionworkersabductedbytheIslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL)aftertheytookcontrol of Mosul and of 46 Indian nurses posted in a hospital in Tikrit; and pillorying thegovernment’salleged"failure"toprotectand/orrescueitsnationals.The Indian public needs to bemade aware of ground realities because ofwhich these thingshappen.


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The 39 constructionworkers are in awar zone and their exactwhereabouts are not known.Sinceneithertheterritory,northecaptors,northeevolutionofdevelopmentsareunderIndiancontrol or influence, the government is inevitably completely dependent on others –governments of friendly countries who may have local influence; central and regionalgovernmentsinIraq;nationalandinternationalhumanitarianandreliefagencies;triballeaders;militantsthemselvesorotherindividualsorentitieswhohaveinfluencewiththemilitantsetcfortheirsafetyandreturntoIndia.Effortshavebeencontinuingona24hourbasiswithsuchentities–thatisthebestthatanygovernmentcando.Thatishowtherescueofthenurseswassecured. India and Indians have always enjoyed enormous goodwill in the Gulf region inparticularandintheArabworldingeneral.ThisisoneofthereasonswhyIndiannurseswerenot ill‐treated and released. If, despite all efforts, the workers are harmed the governmentshouldnotbeblamed.Not a single country, even thosewith extremely competent intelligence agencies and foreignministries, and those that intensively interactwith Iraq on a daily basis, had anticipated theblitzkriegoftheISILintakingovertheSunniprovincesofIraq.TheconsulgeneralofTurkeyinMosuland23otherconsulatepersonnelwereabductedandareyettoberescued.100Kurdishschool children have been missing for weeks. Numerous others of many nationalities aremissing.Therefore, therewasnothing that the Indiangovernmentor theembassycouldhavedonetopreventtheabductionoftheIndianworkers.Suggestions that they could have been evacuated in anticipation of eventsmade in hindsightcompletely ignore how the realworld functions. They themselveswould not havewanted toleavehavingmade largepayments torecruitmentand travelagents in India.Suggestions thatthecommandooperationscanbemountedtorescuethemarecompletelyirresponsible.Exactly 10 years ago something similar had happened. Three Indian truck drivers werekidnappedinIraqinJuly2004whileworkingforaKuwaiticompanythatferriedsuppliestotheUSmilitaryinIraq.AnIndiandiplomaticteamwassenttoBaghdadandsuccessfullynegotiatedtheir release – they had been captive for 41 days.While negotiations were underway, IndiawitnessedsimilarfreneticTVcoverageasnow.However,withinafewmonthsoftheirrelease,thedriverswerebackinKuwait.WheninterviewedonTV,thesamefamilymemberswhohadearliercomplainedaboutandcriticisedthegovernmentaggressivelysaid thatthemenhadtoearnalivingfortheirfamilymembers!Thisteamhadlearnttoitsgreatsurprisethatasmanyas20,000IndianswereworkinginIraq,many of them in various USmilitary camps, the attraction obviously being the high salariesbeingpaidfordutyinwarzones.Inthecontextofthekidnappingofthedrivers,thegovernmentbannedthemovementofIndianstoIraqforemployment,whichcontinuedtillMay2010.Thiswasliftedafterapublicdemandandhencethetroublenow.Allthishighlightsthesadfactandnationalshamethat67yearsafterindependence,millionsofIndianshavetogoabroadtoworkinconditionsthatareconducivetotheireasyexploitation.Inthe short term, it is difficult to see how this can be prevented.However, one domestic issueneedstobeaddressedproactivelywithasenseofprioritywhichunfortunatelynogovernmentin the past has done: the nexus between the recruiting and travel agents in India andemployment agents in the Gulf countries – the main reason for the exploitation of Indian

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workers. This unsavoury nexusmust be broken and stricter regulationsmust be stringentlyenforced.Lastweek the ISIL announced the establishment of an Islamic Emirate,which in due course,theyhope,wouldincludeIndia.However,thereisnoreasonformajorconcernbecausetheISILis going to be extremely busy in Syria and Iraq to stave off defeat ultimately. However, theCaliphate could be an ideological beacon formisguided or unemployed IndianMuslimyouth;however, ultimately causes and remedies thereof lie with the Indian government and civilsociety,notoutsideIndia.

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Forecasts West Asia in 2015 - ETH Z · West Asia in 2015 IPCS Forecasts West Asia in 2015 Amb Ranjit Gupta Distinguished Fellow, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) West