Forest resources - European Commission...forest residues C+NC, TH forest residues C+NC, HI forest residues C+NC, ME forest residues C+NC, LO Wood resource balance – How much can

How much

wood

can we

take

and what

should

we

use it

for?

Forest resources

-

Udo Mantau

Wood resource balance –

How much can we use?

1.

Total Balance 2010 –

dimensions

2.

Methodological comments

3.

EUwood

–

development of woody biomass

4.

Energy consumption in 2030 80% or 20%

Content

01.06.2011 Universität Hamburg | Udo Mantau 2

I will NOT

… tell you what you should do! “…

what should we use it for?”


To find the right tool in order to reach a target you need an expert. To take a decision on targets is a political act.

A scientist may of course take a position for a target, but that is a political decision and not a scientific conclusion.

He should strictly seperate his conclusions from his values. That does not mean, that he should not have values, but to mix them would destroy the conclusions as well as the values.

Max Weber (1864-1920)

picture from wikipedia

I will NOT

… just talk about FOREST resources –


How much wood we can use depends on the way we are using all woody biomass. There are strong relations between the use of

forest biomass and other woody biomass.



1 Targets


Source: MANTAU, Wood resource balance, EUwood –

team 2010 (VERKERK/LINDNER/ANTTILA/ASIKAINEN: EFISCEN forest resources and constraints; LEEK, N.: Post -consumer wood; OLDENBURGER J.: Landscape care wood; SAAL, U.: Industrial residues; MANTAU/SAAL: Wood industry; PRINS, K.: Policy options;

JONSSONS, R. EFSOS calculations)

1.

Transparency for the markets of wood resources for Europe (EU27) and the individual countries. Thereby accomplish the new areas of

energy use and other woody biomass resources.

2.

Develop scenarios for each of the sectors 2010 to 2030 in line with the following specifications. In this context make a „gap projection“

for the expected surplus or deficit of woody biomass in Europe.

1 Dimensions


Europe (EU27) 2010 –

sector dimensions (medium mobil. -

A1)

Dimensions of the wood resource market 2010

Resource potential Potential demand




Other woody biomass Energy uses

Forest woody biomass Material uses717 M m³

331 M odt

5.973 PJ

308 M m³ 139 M odt

2.499 PJ

458 M m³ 229 M odt

3.994 PJ

367 M m³ 173 M odt

3.017 PJ



E27 potential and demand in M m³ medium mobilisation





Potential in M m³ 2010 % 2010 % Demand in M m³

Stemwood C, ME 362 35,3 196 23,8 Sawmill industry

Stemwood NC, ME 182 17,7 11 1,3 Veneer plywood industry

Forest residues, ME 118 11,5 143 17,3 Pulp industry

Bark, ME 55 5,4 92 11,2 Panel industry

Landscape c.w. (USE) ME 59 5,8 15 1,8 Other material uses

Short rotation plantation - 21 2,5 Producer of solid wood fuelsSawmill by products 87 8,5 86 10,4 Forest sector internal useOther industrial residues 30 2,9 83 10,1 Biomass power plantsBlack liquor 60 5,8 23 2,8 Households (pellets)Solid wood fuels 21 2,0 155 18,8 Households (other)Post consumer wood 52 5,1 0 0,0 Liquid biofuelsTotal 1.026 100 825 100 Total



1 Dimensions

2 Methods -

scenarios





source use[mio. m³] [mio. m³]

stemwood

EFISCENEFSOS

Conversion factors and

WRB

Sawmill industry

forest residues Panel industry

bark Pulp industry

other material uses

Woody biom. outside for. Literature &modellingpost consumer wood

EU RES2020 calc.enquiries

Wood based fuel industry

sawmill by productsEFSOS &

conv. factors

wood industry internal use

other industrial residues biomass power plants

black liquor household use

liquid biofuels

Processed wood fuel Energy use

source use[mio. m³] [mio. m³]

stemwood

EFISCENEFSOS

Conversion factors and

WRB

Sawmill industry

forest residues Panel industry

bark Pulp industry

other material uses

Woody biom. outside for. Literature &modellingpost consumer wood

EU RES2020 calc.enquiries

Wood based fuel industry

sawmill by productsEFSOS &

conv. factors

wood industry internal use

other industrial residues biomass power plants

black liquor household use

liquid biofuels

Processed wood fuel Energy use



2 Methods -

Cascade uses and cascade factors

01.06.2011 University of Hamburg | Udo Mantau 9

∑

total sources in example: 1.54

154 ∑

total uses

Sources Uses[ M m³] [ M m³]

Stemwood, coniferous C 100 100 Sawmill industry

Stemwood, non-coniferous

NC 20 Panel industry

Forest residues C+NC 10 Pulp industry

Bark Other physical utilisation

Landscape care wood 10 Wood fuel industry

5 Power and heat

Sawmill by-products 40 4 Industrial internal

Other industrial wood residues 5 Private households

Black liquor 4 Undifferentiated energy use

Solid wood fuels 10

Post-consumer woodCascade factor of Wood Resource balance

for Europe on primary biomass: 1.53


a total resource assessment methodology

2 Methods -

Wood flow analysis for a single resource (forest roundwood)

01.06.2011 University of Hamburg | Udo Mantau 10

Source: MANTAU Presentation in Geneva UNECE working group March 2008

Energy plants > 1MW0.840 1.2%

Energy plants < 1MW3.463 4.9%

households14.214 20.3%

Recorded availability (RA)56.946 77.8%

Total availability (TA)73.204 100.0%

Unrecorded availability (UA)16.258 22.2%

Change in Stock (CiS)-0.036 0.0%

Import (Im)2.820 3.9%

Export (Ex)6.070 8.3%

Calc. domestic availability (CDA)69.990 100.0%

Pulp industry6.184 8.8%

Panel industry7.470 10.7%

Sawmill industry37.234 53.2%

Other material uses *)0.585 0.8%

Other energy uses0.000 0.0%

TA = CDA + (Ex –

Im) + ΔCiSUA = TA

-

RAConsumption (CDA) = (RA + UA) + (Im –

Ex) + ΔCiS where (RA = production when UA = 0)


a total resource assessment methodology

E27 potential and demand in M m³ medium mobilisation

3 Developments -

sectors





in M m³

forest

other wood

material

energy

201020202030



3 Developments –

sensitivity of forestry potential


Source: Verkerk, H.; Lindner, M.; Anttila, P. & Asikainen, A. 2010: The realistic supply of biomass from forests. pp 56-79. in: EUwood -

Final report. Hamburg/Germany, June 2010. 160 p.



01.06.2011 13Realisable biomass potential from forests

3. Developments -

constraints on biomass supply from forests applied in EUwood



environmental

technical

ownership size

Economic contraints –

in the sense of:How much wood will be mobilized

at given cost/price relation in a specific year

were NOT calculated.

Source: Photos from Verkerk, H.; EUwood presentation

01.06.2011 14Realisable biomass potential from forests

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

in M m³

forest residues C+NC, TH forest residues C+NC, HIforest residues C+NC, ME forest residues C+NC, LO



3. Developments -

Constraints are most relevant for forest residues

E27 potential and demand in M m³

medium mobilisation

3 Developments –

scenario driven





Potential in M m³ 2010 2030 2010 2030 Demand in M m³

Stemwood C, ME 362 356 196 247 Sawmill industry

Stemwood NC, ME 182 181 11 17 Veneer plywood industry

Forest residues, ME 118 120 143 200 Pulp industry

Bark, ME 55 52 92 136 Panel industry

Landscape c.w. (USE) ME 59 74 15 20 Other material uses

Short rotation plantation - - 21 54 Producer of solid wood fuelsSawmill by products 87 108 86 114 Forest sector internal useOther industrial residues 30 42 83 377 Biomass power plantsBlack liquor 60 85 23 82 Households (pellets)Solid wood fuels 21 54 155 151 Households (other)Post consumer wood 52 67 0 29 Liquid biofuelsTotal 1.026 1.139 825 1.427 Total



EU27 - total woody biomass demand and potential with low, medium and high mobilisation scenario

3 Developments -

total woody biomass scenarios







3 Developments -

sensitivity annual difference with base scenario


Source: Steierer, F. 2010: Energy use. pp 43-55. in: EUwood -

Final report. Hamburg/Germany, June 2010. 160 p.

Assumption (base scenario)

Possible variation Effect on EU 27 wood demand [million m³

2020 2030

Member states meet the energy efficiency targets (20%)

Member states miss these targets and energy efficiency remains at 2010 level

+ 85 + 130

Wood energy contributes 40% to energy from renewable sources

Wood energy accounts for the same share in energy from renewables as in 2010 (50%)

+ 120 + 167

Others RES develop faster than anticipated and wood energy decreases to 37,5% of RES

- 47 - 63

Constant energy yield of net calorific value / combustion efficiency

Each 1% decrease + 7.5

Each 1% increase - 7.5



Why did you calculate 400 M m³

deficit for 2020 in 2007 and only 100 M m³

in 2010?


Source: Mantau, Steierer, Hetsch, Prins (2007): Wood resource availability and demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2010 2020

Combined wooduse [mio m³]

Supply residuesSupply forest Material use EFSOS Energy goal 75% Energy goal 100%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2010 2020

Calculated future wood supply [mio m³]

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2010 2020

Calculated material use [EFSOS]



E27 – material and energy wood consumption in 2020 in M m³

4 Final comments –

regional distribution


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IE IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE GB

1st. bar material use

2nd. bar energy use

in M m³






What does WRB currently offer?A framework for all woody biomass and the possibilityto calculate many key numbers for a better understandingof woody biomass and wood consumption, with a complex structure of wood flows

Interpretation of resultsThe different scenarios and sensitivity studies offer a variety of future development paths. Different choices lead to different results which in turn leads to more transparency.

What is the main disadvantage?Only few empirical studies have been carried out in European countries. Monitoring activities (empirical studies) on capacities and resource mix as well as on distribution to end use sectors are missing to a large extent.

4 Final comments –

on Wood Resource Balance




01.06.2011 21UNIVERSITÄT HAMBURG | Udo Mantau, Ulrike Saal

Wood consumptions for other material uses … a story,

just at the beginning

WPC –

wood plastic components

fibre


How much will THEY use?


Future ?

The sameold story

LikeA 100 years

ago

Future ?

Documents

Forest resources - European Commission...forest residues C+NC, TH forest residues C+NC, HI forest residues C+NC, ME forest residues C+NC, LO Wood resource balance – How much can