Framing of Marcel BoumansWorkshop ‘Error in the Sciences’

errare• to wander freely• to wander from the right path

• Random componentRandom: Having no definite aim or

purpose; not sent or guided in a particular direction; made, done, occurring, etc., without method or conscious choice; haphazard.”

• Systematic component

Theory of Error

Galileo’s problem

I should judge that all were fallacious either through some fault of the computer or some defect on the part of the observations. At best I might say that a single one, and no more, might be correct, but I should not know which one to choose.- Simplico

Non-Miracle Argument

The world would, indeed, be even more of a miracle than it is if the influence of one set of errors offsets that of another set of errors so conveniently that we need to bother much with the whole matter.- Oskar Morgenstern

Uncertainty

Measurement science:Uncertainty means doubt about the validity of the result of a measurement• Type A evaluation

by the statistical analysis of series of observations

• Type B evaluationby other means

Sources of Error and Uncertainty personal bias

theoretical/conceptual

realization

reliability instrument

representationalpower

environment

Science: many places for errors

Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement

Although this Guide provides a framework for assessing uncertainty, it cannot substitute for critical thinking, intellectual honesty, and professional skill. The evaluation of uncertainty is neither a routine task nor a purely mathematical one; it depends on detailed knowledge of the nature of the measurand and of the measurement. The quality and utility of the uncertainty quoted for the result of a measurement therefore ultimately depend on the understanding, critical analysis, and integrity of those who contribute to the assignment of its value.

Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement

Although this Guide provides a framework for assessing uncertainty, it cannot substitute for critical thinking, intellectual honesty, and professional skill. The evaluation of uncertainty is neither a routine task nor a purely mathematical one; it depends on detailed knowledge of the nature of the measurand and of the measurement. The quality and utility of the uncertainty quoted for the result of a measurement therefore ultimately depend on the understanding, critical analysis, and integrity of those who contribute to the assignment of its value.

Mistrust

Suspicion of intentional errors

“Lies, damned lies, and statistics”“Simple liars, damned liars, and experts”

FOCUS

… to a fruitful and enjoyable discussion