RESEARCH SUMMARY

Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan

Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan SHRP 2 C20

March 2011

The SHRP 2 C20 initiative is aimed at fostering fresh ideas and new approaches

in freight demand modeling and data to ultimately improve decision making.

Project NeedFreight makes up a large—and rapidly growing—portion of the traffic on our roadways. Appropriately accommodating the demand for moving goods re-quires policies, plans, and projects that are based on a clear understanding of how that demand is realisti-cally expected to shift under various scenarios.

However, current freight demand forecasting models and data sources are inadequate. Freight forecasting is currently based on methods and tools developed for passenger transportation, which do not reflect the distinct nature and complexities of freight. Im-provements are needed to better reflect how freight transportation really operates and how it would be affected by future plans and decisions.

Project HighlightsThe SHRP 2 C20 project encompassed an analysis of the current state of the practice, freight decision-making needs, and gaps between current models and real-world needs.

An integral part of the project was the Freight Mod-eling and Data Innovation Symposium conducted in September 2010 (www.freightplanning.com). The symposium featured 15 presentations selected to ad-dress the challenge of finding the next generation of freight demand models. Participants presented in-novative approaches and research into goods move-ment from a variety of academic and applied per-spectives from a range of countries and contexts.

In addition to a detailed technical report, the project produced a strategic plan to guide future advances in freight modeling and data.

Strategic ObjectivesThe project identified seven strategic objectives to serve as the basis for future innovation in freight de-mand modeling and data, and to guide both near-term and long-term implementation.

1. Improve and expand the knowledge base for planners and decision makers.

2. Develop and refine forecasting and modeling practices that reflect the “real world” of supply-chain management.

3. Develop and refine forecasting and modeling practices based on sound economic and demo-graphic principles.

4. Develop standard freight data (similar to Com-modity Flow Survey (CFS), Freight Analysis Frame-work (FAF), and possible future variations) to smaller geographic scales.

5. Establish methods for maximizing the beneficial use of new freight analytical tools by state depart-ments of transportation and metropolitan plan-ning organizations (MPOs) in their planning and programming activities.

6. Improve the availability and visibility of data among agencies and between the public and pri-vate sectors.

7. Develop new and enhanced visualization tools and techniques for freight planning and forecasting.

The project culminated in the development of 13 sample research initiatives that represent near-term opportunities to advance the strategic objectives (see matrix next page). The research initiatives will yield a greater sophistication in freight modeling and data, and thereby enhance transportation decision making related to freight.

Photos: © iStockphoto.com/shaunl (1268527) and © iStockphoto.com/mwookie (1553913)

The

sam

ple

rese

arch

initi

ativ

es o

utlin

ed a

s par

t of

SHRP

2 C

20 d

emon

stra

te h

ow th

e st

rate

gic

obje

ctiv

es

coul

d be

adv

ance

d. E

ach

also

app

lies t

o on

e or

mor

e

of th

e th

ree

rese

arch

dim

ensi

ons.

Sam

ple

Rese

arch

Initi

ativ

es

Rese

arch

D

imen

sion

sSt

rate

gic

Obj

ectiv

es

Key:

Dire

ctly

Add

ress

es O

bjec

tive

In

dire

ctly

Add

ress

es O

bjec

tive

Knowledge

Models

Data

1. Improve and expand knowledge base.

2. Develop modeling methods to reflect actual supply-chain management practices.

3. Develop model-ing methods based on sound economic principles.

4. Develop standard freight data to smaller geographic scales.

5. Maximize use of freight tools by the pub-lic sector for planning and programming.

6. Improve availability and visibility of data between public and private sectors.

7. Develop new and enhanced visualization tools and techniques.

A: D

eter

min

e th

e fr

eigh

t and

logi

stic

s kn

owle

dge

and

skill

requ

irem

ents

for

tran

spor

tatio

n de

cisi

on m

aker

s an

d pr

ofes

sion

al a

nd te

chni

cal p

erso

nnel

. De-

velo

p th

e as

soci

ated

lear

ning

sys

tem

s to

add

ress

kno

wle

dge

and

skill

defi

cits

.

B: E

stab

lish

tech

niqu

es a

nd s

tand

ard

prac

tices

to v

alid

ate

frei

ght f

orec

asts

.

C: E

stab

lish

mod

elin

g ap

proa

ches

for “

beha

vior

-bas

ed” f

reig

ht m

ovem

ent.

D: D

evel

op m

etho

ds th

at p

redi

ct m

ode

shift

and

hig

hway

cap

acity

impl

ica-

tions

of v

ario

us “w

hat-

if” s

cena

rios.

E: D

evel

op a

rang

e of

frei

ght f

orec

astin

g m

etho

ds a

nd to

ols

that

add

ress

de

cisi

on-m

akin

g ne

eds

and

can

be a

pplie

d at

all

leve

ls (i

.e.,

natio

nal,

regi

onal

, st

ate,

MPO

, mun

icip

al).

F: D

evel

op ro

bust

tool

s fo

r fre

ight

cos

t-be

nefit

ana

lysi

s th

at g

o be

yond

fina

n-ci

al to

the

full

rang

e of

ben

efits

, cos

ts, a

nd e

xter

nalit

ies.

G: E

stab

lish

anal

ytic

al a

ppro

ache

s th

at d

escr

ibe

how

ele

men

ts o

f the

frei

ght

tran

spor

tatio

n sy

stem

ope

rate

, per

form

, and

affe

ct th

e la

rger

ove

rall

tran

s-po

rtat

ion

syst

em.

H: D

eter

min

e ho

w e

cono

mic

, dem

ogra

phic

, and

oth

er fa

ctor

s an

d co

nditi

ons

driv

e fr

eigh

t pat

tern

s an

d ch

arac

teris

tics.

Doc

umen

t eco

nom

ic a

nd d

emo-

grap

hic

chan

ges

rela

ted

to fr

eigh

t cho

ices

.

I: D

evel

op fr

eigh

t dat

a re

sour

ces

for a

pplic

atio

n at

sub

regi

onal

leve

ls.

J: Es

tabl

ish,

poo

l, an

d st

anda

rdiz

e a

port

folio

of c

ore

frei

ght d

ata

sour

ces

and

sets

that

sup

port

pla

nnin

g, p

rogr

amm

ing,

and

pro

ject

prio

ritiz

atio

n.

K: D

evel

op p

roce

dure

s fo

r app

lyin

g fr

eigh

t for

ecas

ting

to th

e de

sign

of t

rans

-po

rtat

ion

infr

astr

uctu

re s

uch

as p

avem

ent a

nd b

ridge

s.

L: A

dvan

ce re

sear

ch to

effe

ctiv

ely

inte

grat

e lo

gist

ics

prac

tices

(priv

ate

sect

or)

with

tran

spor

tatio

n po

licy,

pla

nnin

g, a

nd p

rogr

amm

ing

(pub

lic s

ecto

r).

M: D

evel

op v

isua

lizat

ion

tool

s fo

r fre

ight

pla

nnin

g an

d m

odel

ing

thro

ugh

a tw

o-pr

onge

d ap

proa

ch o

f dis

cove

ry a

nd a

ddre

ssin

g kn

own

deci

sion

-mak

ing

need

s.

What is SHRP 2?Congress established the Strate-gic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP 2) in 2006 to investigate the underlying causes of highway crash-es and congestion through a short-term program of focused research. SHRP 2 targets goals in four interre-lated focus areas:

Safety: Significantly improve highway safety by under-standing driving behavior in a study of unprecedented scale.

Renewal: Develop design and construction methods that cause minimal disrup-tion and produce long-lived facilities to renew the aging highway infrastructure.

Reliability: Reduce conges-tion and improve travel-time reliability through incident management, response, and mitigation.

Capacity: Integrate mobility, economic, environmental, and community needs into the planning and design of new transportation capacity.

This project was carried out as part of the Capacity focus area. The research was guided by a Technical Expert Task Group (TETG) of public and private sector leaders in goods movement. The TETG was charged with setting and main-taining the project’s vision, direction, and progress monitoring.

Photos: © iStockphoto.com/DSGpro (14098928) and © iStockphoto.com/EasyBuy4u (6149923)Cover photo: © iStockphoto.com/VallarieE (11989568)

Strategic Road MapThe SHRP 2 C20 Strategic Road Map for moving forward recommends establishing a flexible mechanism to spur public-private collaboration and continuous innovation in freight modeling and data: a Global Freight Research Con-sortium (GFRC).

This peer-based consortium would enable, fund, and promote research and enhanced analytical approaches through public organizations—national and internation-al—together with private organizations that have a stake in improved freight system performance. Participation would be voluntary, attracting those organizations moti-vated to achieve the strategic objectives.

GFRC member organizations would include public domes-tic agencies, modal and other associations, universities, and the transportation research entities of other countries. Private sector members could include organizations such as Con-way, Wal-Mart, EXCEL Logistics, FedEx, and UPS.

www.trb.org/shrp2

Global Freight Research Consortium focus areas:

• Define issues ripe for research innovation.

• Provide recognition and incentives to spur break-throughs.

• Conduct regular innovation forums.

• Promote technology transfer from other disciplines.

• Promote an international focus.

• Recognize the application of completed research.