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Frequency of Contrail Occurrence from SurfaceObservations Over the United States
J. Kirk AyersAnalytical Services and Materials, Inc.
Hampton, VA
Patrick MinnisNASA Langley Research Center
Hampton, VA
Steven P. Weaver388th Weather Squadron
Wright-Patterson AFB, OH
Purpose
• Develop a climatology for contrail frequency of occurrence over the USA
• Provide a validation source for satellite contrail analyses
• Provide input for radiative forcing studies
• Basically a repeat of 93/94 study (NASA RP 1404, December 1997, Minnis, Ayers, Weaver)
Eglin
Hill
Cairns
Langley
Offut
Whiteman
Loring
Luke
Minot
Mt. Home
Kelly
Wright-Pat.
Tinker
Barksdale
Beale
McClellan
Fairchild
Griffis
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
JJ
Edwards
25
30
35
40
45
50
-125 -120 -115 -110 -105 -100 -95 -90 -85 -80 -75 -70 -65
1993/1994 CONTRAIL OBSERVATION NETWORK
1993/1994 Contrail and Cirrus ObservationsAFB Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Barksdale X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Beal X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Cairns X X X X X X X X
Edwards X X X X X X X X X X X X
Eglin X X X X X X X X X X
Fairchild X X X X X X X X X X X X
Griffis X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Hill X X X X X X X X X X X X
Kelly X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Langley X X X X X X X X X X X
Loring X X X X X X X X X X X X
Luke X X X X X X X X
McClellan X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Minot X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Mt. Home X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Offut X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Tinker X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Whiteman X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Wright Pat. X X X X X X X X X X X X
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
JJ
J
25
30
35
40
45
50
-125 -120 -115 -110 -105 -100 -95 -90 -85 -80 -75 -70 -65
1998/1999 CONTRAIL OBSERVATION NETWORK
McChord
Eglin
Mt. Home
HillWright Pat.
Langley
Shaw
McClellan
Edwards
Offut
Whiteman
Tinker
LukeCannon
Minot
Rucker
J
JBeale
1998/1999 Contrail and Cirrus ObservationsAFB Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Beal X X X X X X X X X X X X
Cannon X X X X X 1-7
Edwards X X X X X X X X X X
Eglin X X X X X X X X X 1-28
Hill X X X X X X X X X X X 1-2
Langley X X X X X
Luke X X X X X X X X X X
McChord X X X X X X X X X X X X
McClellan X X X X X X
Minot X X X X X X X X X X
Mt. Home X X 8-30 X X X X 1-2 X
Offut X X X X X X 1-23
Rucker X X X 4-30
Shaw X X X X X X X X X X X X
Tinker X X X X X X X X X X X X
Whiteman C
Wright Pat. X X X X X X X X X 1-8
Wright Patterson AFB Daily Contrail and Cirrus Data
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
91 108
125
142
159
176
193
210
227
244
261
278
295
312
329
346
363
380
397
414
431
448
Day of Year (4/98 - 3/99)
No Contrails, w/CirrusNo ContrailsIndeterminate Contrails, w/CirrusIndeterminate ContrailsNo DataContrails, Not Persistent, w/CirrusContrails, Not PersistentContrails, Persistent, w/CirrusContrails, Persistent
Wright Patterson AFB Monthly Contrail and Cirrus Data
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
Apr-98
May-98
Jun-98
Jul-98
Aug-98
Sep-98
Oct-98
Nov-98
Dec-98
Jan-99
Feb-99
Mar-99
Indeterminate Contrails,w/Cirrus
Indeterminate Contrails
No Contrails, w/Cirrus
No Contrails
Contrails, Not Persistent,w/Cirrus
Contrails, Not Persistent
Contrails, Persistent, w/Cirrus
Contrails, Persistent
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
BJ
J
J
J J
J
J
J
J
J
JanFebMar AprMayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDecJanFebMar0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
Per
sist
ent C
ontr
ail F
requ
ency
Month
B 98/99
J 93/94
Eglin
B B
BB
BB
B
B B
B
B
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
JJ
J
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Per
sist
ent C
ontr
ail F
requ
ency
Month
B 98/99
J 93/94
Hill
B
B
B
B B
B B BB
BB B
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Mea
n C
ontr
ail F
requ
ency
Month
B
BB B
B
BB
B B
BB B
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Mea
n C
ontr
ail F
requ
ency
Month
1993/1994
1998/1999
Monthly Mean Persistent Contrail Frequency(All Daytime Data)
B B
BB
B B
BB B
B
B B
B
BB
B
BM
inot
McC
hord
Mt.
Hom
e
Hill
Offu
t
Wrig
ht P
at.
Bea
l
Whi
tem
an
McC
lella
n
Lang
ley
Tin
ker
Edw
ards
Can
non
Sha
w
Luke
Ruc
ker
Egl
in
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Mea
n C
ontr
ail F
requ
ency
B
B
B
B
B
BB
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
BB B
Min
ot
Fai
rchi
ld
Lorin
g
Grif
fis
Mt.
Hom
e
Offu
t
Hill
Wrig
ht P
at.
Bea
le
McC
lella
n
Whi
tem
an
Lang
ley
Tin
ker
Edw
ards
Luke
Bar
ksda
le
Cai
rns
Egl
in
Kel
ly
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Mea
n C
ontr
ail F
requ
ency 1993/1994
1998/1999
Mean Monthly Total Contrail Frequency (All Daytime Data)
B
B
B
B B
B B BB
B
B B
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Mea
n C
ontr
ail F
requ
ency
Month
B
B B
B
B
B
BB B
B BB
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Mea
n C
ontr
ail F
requ
ency
Month
1993/1994
1998/1999
Monthly Mean Persistent Contrail Frequency (Indeterminate Data Excluded)
Wright Patterson AFB Hourly Contrail And Cirrus Data
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6
GMT
Hou
rs o
f Obs
erva
tions
Indeterminate Contrails, w/CirrusIndeterminate ContrailsNo Contrails, w/CirrusNo ContrailsContrails, Not Persistent, w/CirrusContrails, Not PersistentContrails, Persistent, w/CirrusContrails, Persistent
Wright Patterson AFB Hourly Contrail Data
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6
GMT
Fre
quen
cy
No ContrailsContrails, Not PersistentContrails, Persistent
B B B B B
B
B
B
BBB B B
B
B B
B
B B
BB B B B0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Fre
quen
cy
Local Time
Mean Hourly Persistent Contrail Frequency (98/99)
B B B B B
B
B
BB B
BBB
B
B BB
B
B
B
B B B B0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Fre
quen
cy
Local Time
Mean Hourly Total Contrail Frequency (98/99)
0 1.0x10085.0x1007 1.5x1008 2.5x10082.0x1008
Fuel Use (lbs)
1990 Aircraft Fleet Fuel Usage Above 7 Kilometers
0x100
20x106
40x106
60x106
80x106
100x106
120x106
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Fue
l Usa
ge (
lbs)
Altitude (km)
Whiteman AFB
Tinker AFB
Minot AFB
McClellan AFB
Luke AFB
Loring AFB
Langley AFB
Kelly AFB
Hill AFB
Griffis AFB
Eglin AFB
Edwards AFB
Cairns AAF
Beale AFB
Offut AFB
Mountain Home AFB
Wright Patterson AFB
Barksdale AFB
Fairchild AFB
Fuel Usage Profiles
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 5 10 15 20
ALT
ITU
DE
(km
)
FUEL (106 kg)
Vertical distribution of annual mean fuel use for 3° lat-lonboxes centered over the 93/94 surface sites
based on May 1990 data from Baughcumet al. (1993).
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 50 100 150 200 250
Per
sist
ent C
ontr
ail F
requ
ency
Fuel Use (106lbs/yr)
cp = 0.00127 fr = 0.73
Persistent Contrail Frequency as a Function of Fuel Use
93/94
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 50 100 150 200 250
Per
sist
ent C
ontr
ail F
requ
ency
Fuel Use (106lbs/yr)
98/99
cp = 0.00103 fr = 0.70
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 50 100 150 200 250
Tot
al C
ontr
ail F
requ
ency
Fuel Use (106lbs/yr)
ct = 0.00176 f
r = 0.78
Total Contrail Frequency as a Function of Fuel Use
93/94
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 50 100 150 200 250
Tot
al C
ontr
ail F
requ
ency
Fuel Use (106lbs/yr)
98/99
ct = 0.00133 f
r = 0.66
Conclusions
• 93/94 results show that a random observer anywhere in the US has a 8.5% chance of seeing a contrail
• 98/99 results show that a random observer anywhere in the US has a 6.8% chance of seeing a contrail
• February is the month with the highest contrail frequency for both the 93/94 and the 98/99 data
• July is the month with the lowest contrail frequency for the 93/94 data
• September is the month with the lowest contrail frequency for the 98/99 data
• Results from 98/99 data are very similar to those from the 93/94 data
• Due to various uncertainties the overall differences between the 93/94 and 98/99 data are insignificant
