From The Desk Of Editor

(Saurabh Jain)

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n the week gone by, global markets rallied on the back of good spate of economic data

across the globe amid following reports that President Donald Trump is planning to Iunveil a big-spending public works plan. The tax cut legislation made progress in U.S. is

expected to boost corporate profit. Japans economy expanded more than expected in the

September quarter at an annualized pace of 2.5 percent supported by business investments

and Chinese exports jumped in the month of November reflecting firm global demand. In

order to make Euro-area economy stronger, European Commission unveiled set of reforms

after broader discussion across 19 countries that include beefing up the bloc’s bailout fund,

creating a euro-area line within the EU budget and a dedicated finance minister.

Back at home, the domestic market ended the last trading day of the week in green after

buying by retail investors and domestic institutions gathered momentum amid strong global

cues. Also the hope that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win elections in Gujarat

beginning this weekend has boosted the sentiments of the market participants. In the fifth

bi-monthly monetary policy review meeting, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept interest rates

unchanged continuing with its neutral stance. RBI kept inflation range between 4.2-4.6

percent for the second half of the fiscal and retained real GVA growth for 2017-18 at 6.7

percent stating that risks are evenly balanced for both inflation and growth. Going next

week, the outcome of US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings, Gujarat

Assembly Elections, macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign

portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee

against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses.

On the commodity market front, sharp correction was noticed in commodity complex in the

week gone by. Bullion counter is expected to remain under selling pressure ahead of Fed

meeting scheduled on 13th December. There is a high expectation that Fed would increase

the interest rate this time. Gold has support near 28400 levels. Base metal counter is

expected to witness some short covering at lower levels. China's exports and imports

unexpectedly accelerated last month in an encouraging sign for the world's second-biggest

economy. New Yuan Loans, CPI of UK, Euro-Zone ZEW Survey, RBA Governor Lowe Gives

Speech in Sydney¸ FOMC Rate Decision ¸ Yellen Holds Press Conference Following FOMC

Meeting, CPI and Retail Sales Advance of US, Unemployment Rate of Australia, BoE Bank

Rate, BOE Asset Purchase Target, ECB Rate Decision, ECB President Draghi holds news

conference in Frankfurt and many more data and events are scheduled this week, which

can affect the commodities prices.

Contents

Equity 4-7

Derivatives 8-9

Commodity 10-13

Currency 14

IPO 15

FD Monitor 16

Mutual Fund 17-18

SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.

REGISTERED OFFICES:

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MUMBAI OFFICE:

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NEWS

DOMESTIC NEWSEconomy• The Central bank has kept the key interest rate unchanged. Reserve Bank

of India (RBI), however, raised the inflation forecast for remainder of the current financial year to 4.3-4.7 per cent.

• According to a survey data from IHS Markit showed, India's private sector activity expanded only marginally in November, as marked growth in the manufacturing sector was broadly offset by a downturn in the service sector. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India composite output index dropped to a 3-month low of 50.3 in November from 51.3 in October. However, any reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.

Pharmaceuticals• Glenmark Pharmaceuticals announced that the first patient has been dosed

in a Phase 1 trial of GBR 1342 (NCT03309111), an investigational bispecific antibody. This first-in-human, open-label study's primary objective is to assess the safety and tolerability of increasing doses of GBR 1342 in multiple myeloma patients until a maximum tolerated dose is reached.

Oil & Gas• GAIL (India) has awarded contracts for laying 520 kms pipeline

connectivity from Dobhi (in Bihar) to Durgapur (in West Bengal) including 120 kms line to Jamshedpur (in Jharkhand). With these awards, major contracts for Phase-II of the Jagdishpur- Haldia and Bokaro-Dhamra Natural Gas Pipeline (JHBDPL) project, have been finalised.

Capital Goods• Havells India announced its foray into water heater segment with the

launch of technologically advanced and aesthetically designed range of “Water Heaters”. The company has launched five variants in electric water heater “Zoe & Zoe Prime”, “Ameo”, “Amazer” and “Lyft” with a capacity ranging from 1 ltr to 25 ltr.

Information Technology• Cyient announced that it has entered into a non-exclusive business alliance

with EA Technology, an energy technology company headquarted in Chester, United Kingdom. Through this agreement, Cyient and EA Technology will jointly pursue business opportunities globally, by leveraging their complementary skills, technical capabilities and experience.

Automobile• TVS Motor Company has entered into the super premium motorcycle by

launching the TVS Apache RR 310- a 310 cc super-premium bike that the company has jointly developed with BMW Motorrad. The newly launched TVS Apache RR 310 will be introduced in the global market as well with the company eyeing sales to the tune of 10,000 units in its first year itself.

Power• Reliance Infrastructure Ltd has bagged contracts worth Rs 5,000 crore in

Bangladesh which includes setting up of the entire infrastructure for a 750 MW LNG-based combined cycle power plant. The company won the projects on international competitive bidding.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS• Consumer credit in the U.S. increased by more than anticipated in the

month of October. The Fed said consumer credit spiked by $20.5 billion in October after surging up by a downwardly revised $19.2 billion in September. Economists had expected consumer credit to climb by $17.5 billion compared to the $20.8 billion jump originally reported for the previous month.

• US initial jobless claims edged down to 236,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 238,000. The drop surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to inch up to 240,000.

• US labor productivity jumped by 3.0 percent in the third quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Economists had expected the increase in productivity to be upwardly revised to 3.3 percent.

• US trade deficit widened to $48.7 billion in October from a revised $44.9 billion in September. Economists had expected the deficit to widen to $47.5 billion.

• US factory orders edged down by 0.1 percent in October after surging up by 1.7 percent in September. Economists had expected orders to drop by 0.4 percent.

• US construction spending surged up by 1.4 percent to an annual rate of $1.242 trillion in October after rising by 0.3 percent to a revised $1.225 trillion in September. Economists had expected spending to climb by 0.5 percent.

• Total labor cash earnings in Japan increased at a slower-than-expected pace in October. Gross earnings climbed 0.6 percent year-over-year in October, slower than the 0.9 percent rise in September. That was also below the 0.8 percent increase economists had forecast.

• Japan's gross domestic product was bumped up to a seasonally adjusted gin of 0.67 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2017. That exceeded expectations for a gain of 0.4 percent after the November 14 preliminary reading suggested a gain of 0.3 percent.

Ex-Date Company Purpose

11-Dec-17 Nestle India Interim Dividend - Rs 33/- Per Share (Purpose Revised)

13-Dec-17 Atul Auto Interim Dividend - Rs 2.75 Per Share

14-Dec-17 IDFC Bank Interest Payment

15-Dec-17 HDFC Standard Life Interim Dividend

15-Dec-17 Sumeet Industries Rights 3:7 @ Premium Rs 14/-

18-Dec-17 Colgate Palmolive (India) Interim Dividend

21-Dec-17 Vakrangee Bonus 1:1

21-Dec-17 Mahindra & Mahindra Bonus 1:1

21-Dec-17 Castrol India Bonus 1:1

Meeting Date Company Purpose

11-Dec-17 ISMT Results11-Dec-17 Colgate Palmolive (India) Dividend11-Dec-17 Reliance Home Finance Qualified Institutional Placement11-Dec-17 MT Educare Results11-Dec-17 Simplex Projects Results12-Dec-17 Technofab Engineering Results/Others12-Dec-17 AXISCADES Engg. Tech. Results12-Dec-17 MIC Electronics Results12-Dec-17 Themis Medicare Results12-Dec-17 Allahabad Bank Raising of Funds12-Dec-17 Canara Bank Raising of Funds12-Dec-17 Talwalkars Better V Fitness Results/Others13-Dec-17 Bodal Chemicals Results/Others13-Dec-17 The State Trading Cor. of India Results/Others13-Dec-17 Prataap Snacks Results13-Dec-17 Everest Kanto Cylinder Results13-Dec-17 Shemaroo Entnment. Results14-Dec-17 JBM Auto Results14-Dec-17 Omkar Speciality Chem. Results/Others14-Dec-17 Lovable Lingerie Results14-Dec-17 VIP Clothing Results

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

NOTES:1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name

of "Morning Mantra ".2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength

coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.

TREND SHEET

Stocks *Closing Trend Date Rate SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing

Price Trend Trend

Changed Changed

S&P BSE SENSEX 33250 UP 18.11.16 25627 31900 31400

NIFTY50 10266 UP 27.01.17 8641 9900 9750

NIFTY IT 11173 UP 21.07.17 10712 10500 10400

NIFTY BANK 25321 UP 27.01.17 19708 24200 23900

ACC 1747 DOWN 01.12.17 1677 1750 1780

BHARTIAIRTEL 525 UP 13.10.17 431 480 460

BPCL 514 UP 18.10.17 514 480 470

CIPLA 603 UP 09.06.17 551 590 580

SBIN 313 UP 27.10.17 311 310 300

HINDALCO 240 DOWN 01.12.17 235 255 260

ICICI BANK 311 UP 27.10.17 301 305 295

INFOSYS 1002 UP 13.04.17 1010 960 940

ITC 262 DOWN 21.07.17 289 270 275

L&T 1220 UP 13.01.17 959 1150 1130

MARUTI 9042 UP 06.01.17 5616 8400 8250

NTPC 180 UP 04.08.17 177 170 165

ONGC 180 UP 27.10.17 184 176 170

RELIANCE 921 UP 23.06.17 718 880 850

TATASTEEL 698 UP 19.05.17 490 640 620

S/l

4

Closing as on 08-12-2017

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

6

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

13.64

16.97

0.15

54.53

14.71

Foreign

Institutions

Govt. Holding

Promoters

Public & Others

ACC LIMITED CMP: 1703.60 Upside:27%Target Price: 2159.00

Investment Rationale: material mix and fuel mix optimization helped to • ACC is a manufacturer of cement and concrete and partially neutralize the adverse cost impact.

is a member of Lafarge Holcim group. The Valuationcompany has a countrywide network of modern The company has made significant progress with cement and concrete plants, sales offices, dealers strong result and has achieved financial growth and retailers.through an increased focus on premium products, • The Company has approximately 20 cement improved customer service levels and by relentlessly factories, more than 50 ready mixed concrete driving productivity and cost optimization. In its plants, a distribution network of over 9,000 outlook, management expects that demand for dealers and a range of sales offices. ACC-cement and related products will stay favorable in Speedcrete is available in two variants for quick the coming quarter spurred by the government's road solutions: UTWT 24 and UTWT 8. UTWT 24 is increased spending on infrastructure, particularly used to build roads, which can be thrown open to roads, highways and affordable housing. The traffic within 24 hours and UTWT 8 is used for road company is confident about the structural robustness repair works wherein roads can be opened to of the cement industry and maintained a positive traffic within 8 hrs.

• On the development front, under ready mix outlook. With current businesses largely in steady concrete business, two new commercial plants state, increasing market share, strong balance sheet were commissioned at Mumbai and Pune and two would bring healthy growth prospects for the dedicated projects were recently commissioned company. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a in Jharkhand. RMX (ready Mix concrete) now has price target of Rs.2159 in 8 to 10 months time frame 57 operational plants in India and concrete is on an expected P/Ex 34 of x and FY19 EPS of Rs.63.49.being supplied to diversified customer segments such as High-Mid Rise, Individual Home Buyer (IHB), Metro, Power, Road Projects, industrial segments and more.

• Under cement business, it has delivered sales volume growth of 18% during Q2 FY18. The stabilization of Jamul and Sindri Plant capacities has contributed to this growth. Premium product volumes grew by 18%.

• The Company’s productivity and operating efficiencies had improved despite rising input costs from higher slag prices and fuel costs. Higher usage of imported and auctioned coal, caused by the limited availability of linkage coal, adversely impacted fuel costs. However, improved raw

Face Value (Rs.) 10.00

52 Week High/Low 1869.00/1270.10

M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 31991.44

EPS (Rs.) 44.62

P/E Ratio (times) 38.18

P/B Ratio (times) 3.47

Dividend Yield (%) 1.00

Stock Exchange BSE

% OF SHARE HOLDING

P/E Chart

` in cr

Actual Estimate FY Dec-17 FY Dec-18 FY Dec-19

REVENUE 12854.90 14203.50 15444.60EBITDA 1733.20 2150.20 2622.80EBIT 1186.10 1557.80 1803.50PRE-TAX PROFIT 1249.50 1664.10 2020.60NET INCOME 895.40 1192.40 1436.00EPS 46.89 63.49 76.41BVPS 484.76 510.63 531.47ROE 10.00 12.84 14.99

VALUE PARAMETERS

Investment Rationale Rs 356 crore in Q2FY2018, while reduced gross NPA • The Bank expects to improve its loan growth to ratio to 6.67% and net NPA ratio to 3.41% end

above 15% by end March 2018. Bank aims to September 2017. The bank has also showed reduce gross Non Performing Assets (NPA)_ ratio decline in its stressed asset ratio to below 10% at below 6% and net NPA ratio below 3% by March 9.69% end September 2017.2018. The bank proposes to further improve its • Bank’s Customer touch points as of September 30, provision coverage ratio by 2 to 3 percentage 2017 was 8593 which included 2695 Domestic points to 67-68% by March 2018. branches, 3 Overseas branches, 3202 ATM/BNAs

• The bank has posted healthy 22% growth in non and 2693active Business Correspondents. 1442 interest income driven by 50% growth in the core Domestic branches (54%) are in semi-urban and of income. As per the bank, fee income growth is rural areas.driven by acceleration in loan growth, while sale Valuationof Priority Sector Lending Certificates (PSLCs) The bank enjoys a healthy strong balance sheet with also contributed fee income of Rs 22 crore in very good capital adequacy ratio, healthy assets and Q2FY2018. extremely low and controlled non-performing assets

• On the business front, the bank has showed ratio. Hence the bank is expected to do well in near healthy 12% growth in the balance sheet end future. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a September 2017 over September 2016. The price target of Rs.470 in 8 to 10 months time frame on deposits of the bank increased 11.5% driven by a target P/Bv of 1.3x and FY19 BVPS of Rs.361.7.24% growth in current account savings account

deposits. The bank has recorded substantial

improvement in its Casa deposits ratio to 37% end

September 2017 from 33% end September 2016.• The bank has reported healthy 14.2% growth in its

advances end September 2017. Within the loan

book, retail advances grew 21%, agriculture 13%

and MSME 29%. The corporate loan book of the

bank has also expanded 7.8% end September 2017

over September 2016.• On asset quality front, the bank has exhibited

substantial decline in fresh slippages of loans to

P/B Chart

Face Value (Rs.) 10.00

52 Week High/Low 428.00/196.20

M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 18428.79

EPS (Rs.) 31.59

P/E Ratio (times) 12.15

P/B Ratio (times) 1.21

Stock Exchange BSE

` in cr

% OF SHARE HOLDING

VALUE PARAMETERS

Actual Estimate

FY Mar-17 FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19

Net Interest Income51,461 60,824 68,497

Ebitda 15,725 44,841 46,247

Ebit 17,582 48,794 52,123

Pre-Tax Profit 17,582 25,157 30,575

Net Income 14,057 17,525 21,258

EPS 29.27 36.10 43.04

BVPS 357.32 328.19 361.70

INDIAN BANK CMP: 383.70 Upside:23%Target Price: 470.00

8.55

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Institutions

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Promoters

Public & Others

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DERIVATIVES

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY)

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QY) (MONTHLY)

The Market Undertone remained bullish with support of consistent short covering and long buildup. Nifty is trading near 10250 level and all major sectors like

Banks, IT, Auto & pharma are supporting the market trend. Sector rotation is likely to continue further as Derivative data indicates bullish scenario to continue.

Nifty has multiple strong supports at lower levels around 10200 & 10100 spot levels. We can see short covering on every dip as Option writers were active in

recent rally. We have seen put writing in 10200, 10100 puts along with unwinding in calls. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 13.15% while that for put

options closed at 13.42%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 14.27% and is expected to remain sideways. Among Nifty Call options, the 10500-strike call has the

highest open interest of more than 60 lakh shares and in put side 10000-strike put has the highest open interest of over 80 lakh shares in open interest

respectively. The PCR OI for the week closed up at 0.88, which indicates OTM put writing. On the technical front, 10200-10150 spot levels is strong support zone

and current trend is likely to continue towards 10350-10400 levels in current week

In lakhsIn lakhs

In 10000 In 10000

ACC (DEC FUTURE)

Buy: Around `1740

Target: `1795

Stop loss: `1710

TCS

BUY DEC 2600. PUT 36.00SELL DEC 2550. PUT 18.00

Lot size: 250BEP: 2582.00

Max. Profit: 8000.00 (32.00*250)Max. Loss: 4500.00 (18.00*250)

OPTIONSTRATEGY

FUTURE

UNIONBANK

BUY DEC 155. PUT 5.45SELL DEC 150. PUT 3.60

Lot size: 4000BEP: 153.15

Max. Profit: 12600.00 (3.15*4000)Max. Loss: 7400.00 (1.85*4000)

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

GODREJIND (DEC FUTURE)

Buy: Above `595

Target: `614

Stop loss: `586

BULLISH STRATEGY

DABUR

BUY DEC 355. CALL 6.80SELL DEC 360. CALL 4.90

LOT SIZE: 2500BEP: 356.90

MAX. PROFIT: 7750.00 (3.10*2500)MAX. LOSS: 4750.00 (1.90*2500)

ZEEL (DEC FUTURE)

Sell: Below `560

Target: `542

Stop loss: `570

BEARISH STRATEGY

Call Put

Call Put Call Put

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DERIVATIVES

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

07-DEC 06-DEC 05-DEC 04-DEC 01-DEC

DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 36.25 24.55 28.45 31.50 32.45

COST OF CARRY% 0.72 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.65

PCR(OI) 0.88 0.82 0.86 0.88 0.90

PCR(VOL) 0.83 0.79 0.88 0.82 0.88

A/D RATIO(NIFTY 50) 11.75 0.19 0.59 1.13 0.11

A/D RATIO(ALL FO STOCKS)* 11.44 0.21 0.99 0.75 0.13

IMPLIED VOLATILITY 13.15 14.64 13.96 13.86 13.30

VIX 14.27 15.09 15.01 14.86 14.86

HISTORY. VOL 12.28 11.23 11.03 11.36 11.72

*All Future Stocks

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN NIFTY FUTURE

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup # Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

#All Future Stocks

LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng

BALKRISIND 2238.80 6.40% 437600 37.44%

JETAIRWAYS 700.20 6.47% 7902000 30.01%

BIOCON 521.40 16.19% 11716200 22.49%

GAIL 489.65 8.04% 18570000 19.13%

NCC 123.40 1.48% 27192000 16.48%

TVSMOTOR 749.60 3.26% 5581000 16.03%

MARUTI 8893.70 3.08% 1754250 15.72%

PAGEIND 22356.65 1.95% 27750 15.15%

IDEA 98.05 4.87% 50582000 14.17%

DISHTV 83.50 3.53% 29232000 13.51%

LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng

JUBLFOOD 1660.35 -5.88% 2241000 29.31%

M&M 1387.40 -1.54% 5570500 24.13%

NBCC 256.35 -1.95% 7980000 20.36%

HDIL 58.00 -3.25% 41120000 18.60%

UBL 1042.60 -1.94% 1721300 17.82%

HDFCBANK 1816.25 -1.66% 21186500 17.10%

HEXAWARE 332.10 -2.50% 3921000 16.07%

INDIANB 385.85 -1.72% 4890000 14.68%

IRB 205.55 -7.89% 18757500 14.44%

CHENNPETRO 409.30 -1.18% 2227500 14.23%

Top 10 short build upTop 10 long build up

In Cr.

07-DEC 06-DEC 05-DEC 04-DEC 01-DEC

DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 114.75 75.60 100.15 110.75 67.70

COST OF CARRY% 0.72 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.65

PCR(OI) 1.58 1.64 1.67 1.54 1.47

PCR(VOL) 0.84 1.01 1.08 1.19 1.18

A/D RATIO(BANKNIFTY) All Up All Down 3.00 0.71 0.09

A/D RATIO(ALL FO STOCKS)# All Up 0.05 2.00 0.69 0.05

IMPLIED VOLATILITY 14.39 15.76 15.21 15.12 14.57

VIX 14.27 15.09 15.01 14.86 14.86

HISTORY. VOL 15.19 15.16 14.72 15.15 15.47

69

12

78

-36

5

67

1

-14

69

39

5

61

3

-12

89

95

-13

02

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

24-Nov 27-Nov 28-Nov 29-Nov 30-Nov 01-Dec 04-Dec 05-Dec 06-Dec 07-Dec

In Cr.

14

4

-9

5

31

4

12

81

-6

25

-6

9

15

0

-1

97

9

-4

46

-9

14

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

24-Nov 27-Nov 28-Nov 29-Nov 30-Nov 01-Dec 04-Dec 05-Dec 06-Dec 07-Dec

10

SPICES

Soybean futures (Jan) is likely to trade with an upside bias & test 3200 levels, taking support near 3100 levels. Soybean inventories with farmers, traders and plant owners at the end of November were at 6.71 million tons, down from 9.17 million tons a year ago, as stated by the Soybean Processors Association of India. On the demand side, soy meal exports from the country in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) are seen rising to around 2 million tons from previous estimate of 1.5 million tons due to a recent rise in export incentives. Refined soy oil futures (Jan) is expected to fall further towards 710 levels for the second consecutive week. The sentiments are bearish at the benchmark Indore market amid limited demand as the wholesale traders are buying hand to mouth. Further, the stock at ports and in pipelines is sufficient to meet the near term demand. Lastly, cotton oil is cheaper by Rs 25-30/10kg as compared to soy oil which is weighing on soy oil prices. CPO futures (Dec) may witness a steep correction & test 560-555 levels. This edible oil is taking negative cues from the international market and also the demand is poor in the domestic market. Palm oil on Bursa Malaysia Derivative is continuing to lose ground and is currently trading at its lowest level since early July. Mustard futures (Jan) would probably witness selling pressure with every rise & trade with a downside bias in the range of 3940-4080 levels. Millers facing disparity of around Rs.700 per ton & favorable weather fueling the growth of the new mustard crop may give bearish cues to the counter.

OIL AND OILSEEDS

OTHER COMMODITIES

Kapas futures (April) retracted from its seven weeks high of 974 levels as the counter had entered the overbought zone & market participants opted for profit booking. However, going forward it may trade in the range of 945-985 levels & the downside may remain capped owing to projections of lower availability. With pink bollworm turning virulent and posing a serious threat to the interests of farmers, the Telangana government has asked the farmers to terminate the crop before December. In Maharashtra, around 2.8 million hectares or about 67% of the total cotton acreage in Maharashtra may have so far been affected by pink bollworm attack. In Gujarat, cotton picking is underway with no pest or infestation issues reported. In Karnataka, the bolls are mature and the first picking of seed cotton in late sown crop, and second picking of early sown crop is in progress. In Tamil Nadu, the crop is at squaring and vegetative stages, and government advisories indicate farmers are to provide adequate drainage in rain-fed and irrigated crops in order to prevent water standing. Chana futures has made a yearly low at Rs.4,333 per quintal last week on the national bourse, pressurized by weak physical demand and reports of higher crop. In a detailed analysis, chana futures (Jan) has plunged by 25%, from its high of 5801 levels, while the open interest week-on-week has risen by 903% to 44,450 lots since the inception of the contract. The rise in open interest & decline in price suggests that more downside is expected to test 4100 levels. Castor seed futures (Jan) is expected to descend towards 4500-4450 levels. Arrivals of new castor seed crop have started in key spot markets in Gujarat.

Bullion counter can remain under selling pressure as outcome of Fed meeting

this week on 13th December and US PPI and CPI data along with US retail sales

data to give further direction to the prices. Local currency rupee can move in

the range of 64-65. Gold (Feb) can face resistance near $1285 in COMEX and

29600 in MCX while it has support near $1220 in COMEX and 28000 in MCX.

Silver (March) has key support near 36000 in MCX and $15.40 in COMEX. And it

has resistance near 38800 in MCX and $16.80 in COMEX. A rebound in the U.S.

dollar index and fear of US interest rate hike has pressurized the prices lower.

According to Fed funds futures, the chances of a 25 basis point rate rise taking

the top of its target range to 1.5 per cent are almost at 100 per cent. Investors

are monitoring U.S. government lawmakers’ negotiations with President

Trump over a stop-gap measure to keep the federal government in operation.

The US debt ceiling debate has been pushed back by two weeks as Congress

passed a temporary extension. U.S. Senate Republicans agreed to talks with

the House of Representatives on the tax legislation, amid early signs that

lawmakers could bridge their differences and agree on a final bill ahead of a

self-imposed Dec. 22 deadline. According to the World Gold Council the

demand for physical gold in 3Q17 was at its lowest point since 3Q09. In 3Q17,

the demand was down 9% year-over-year (or YoY).

BULLIONS

Crude oil prices may trade on a volatile path as US increased production and inventory data is expected to give further direction to the prices. Overall, it can move in the range of 3500-3900 in MCX. Recently EIA data reported an increase in both gasoline and distillate inventories as headline crude stocks fell by 5.6 million barrels but gasoline inventories increased by 6.8 million. Gasoline stocks in the US are highest for this time of the year. Underlying trend for oil prices is likely to remain positive but some liquidation is likely given the record amount of long positions in the futures market. Stocks have fallen by more than 33 million barrels since the start of the year compared with a ten-year seasonal average fall of 3 million barrels. As stocks have shrunk, distillate prices and margins have risen to encourage refiners to produce more of the fuel, with a clear uptrend since the end of June. The Energy Information Administration data also showed U.S. crude stocks fell 5.6 million barrels, more than expected. That was partially due to closure of the Keystone pipeline after a leak in South Dakota in mid-November, which cut flows to Cushing, Oklahoma. That line reopened last week. Natural gas may remain on a volatile path. It may remain in the range of 170-195 in MCX. U.S. Energy Information Administration stated in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 2 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the week ended Dec. 1, confounding forecasts for a withdrawal of 7 bcf. Meanwhile China’s natural gas imports in November rose to a record as domestic demand surged.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Base metal counter can witness some short covering at lower levels as China industrial production and retail sales can give further direction to the prices. Meanwhile, China’s exports and imports unexpectedly accelerated last month in an encouraging sign for the world's second-biggest economy. Exports in November rose 12.3 percent year-on-year, the fastest pace in eight months, led by strong sales of electronics and high-tech goods while Imports grew 17.7 percent year-on-year in November well above expectations of 11.3 percent growth and rising at the fastest pace since September. Copper may move in the range of 420-445 levels. China’s second largest producer, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group was idling up to 30% its smelting capacity to meet winter output restrictions. China’s copper imports fell to 330,000 metric tons of unwrought copper and copper products in October, 23.2% lower compared to September to the lowest level since April 2017. Zinc can move in the range of 190-210. China's zinc production fell by 1.1 percent year-on-year in November to 423,000 tonnes and output also down from 431,000 tonnes in October. Aluminium may move in the range of 125-135 in MCX. For aluminium, some Japanese buyers have agreed to pay some global producers a premium of $103 a tonne for shipments in the first quarter of next year, higher than the $94-$95 premium in the current quarter. Nickel may remain in the range of 680-740. Brazilian miner Vale SA dialed back its nickel output forecasts for the next five years. Lead can move in the range of 151-165 in MCX.

Turmeric futures (Apr) is likely to witness a consolidation in the range of 7200-7665 levels. The downside may remain capped as the market participants are expecting a drop in the output to around 55-60 lakh bags owing to the recent pest/insect attack, which has adversely affected the crop yield. It is reported that turmeric crop is exposed to threat mainly in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. However, the plunge from the two week high of 7870 levels has created fear among buyers and prompted them to stay on the sideline. Further, presently the major chunk of older crop is of medium-lower grade, and the good demand will emerge only when the better quality new crop flows into the spot markets. The bull run of Jeera futures (Jan) seems to have cooled down & in days to come. It may trade sideways in the range of 20800-22000 levels. The figures of higher sowing has raised the prospects of higher output this season & also has cautioned the buyers, who were in the notion that there might be shortage of supplies ahead. As per Gujarat Agriculture Department, jeera sowing as on 4th December is recorded higher by 49.64% at 269,800 hectares against 180,300 ha during same period last year. Coriander futures (Jan) may face resistance near 5790 levels, however any dip can be considered as a buying opportunity as the counter has the potential to test 6000 levels. The sentiments are optimistic as the area under cultivation is expected to decline. As per Gujarat Agriculture Department, Coriander sowing as of 4th December was recorded lower by 17% at 57,300 ha against 69,000 ha during same period last year.

BASE METALS

11

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COMMODITY

GOLD MCX (FEBRUARY) contract closed at Rs. 28,667 on 7th Dec’17. The contract made its high of Rs.

30,690 on 8th Sept’17 and a low of Rs. 28,290 on 31st July’17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of

the commodity is currently at Rs. 29,206.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 30. One can sell

in the range of Rs. 28,500-28,450 with the stop loss of Rs. 28,750 for a target of Rs. 28,000.

SILVER MCX (MARCH) contract closed at Rs. 37,036 on 7th Dec’17. The contract made its high of Rs.

42,451 on 8th Sept’17 and a low of Rs. 36,992 on 7th Dec’17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of

the commodity is currently at Rs. 38,685.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 22. One can sell in the

range of Rs. 37,200-37,000 with the stop loss of Rs. 38,000 for a target of Rs. 35,500.

CPO MCX (JANUARY) contract closed at Rs. 568.40 on 7th Dec’17. The contract made its high of Rs. 592

on 22nd Nov’17 and a low of Rs. 525 on 28th Sep’17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the

commodity is currently at Rs. 574.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.34. One can sell in

the range of Rs. 566 – 567 with the stop loss of Rs. 570 for a target of Rs. 560.

GOLD MCX (FEBRUARY)

SILVER MCX (MARCH)

CPO MCX (JANUARY)

NOTES : 1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities (Morning Mantra).

2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.

EXCHANGE COMMODITY CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND TREND RATE TREND SUPPORT RESISTANCE CLOSING

PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS

NCDEX SOYABEAN JAN 3139.00 07.12.17 UP 3139.00 3050.00 - 3000.00

NCDEX JEERA JAN 21670.00 23.11.17 UP 21145.00 20500.00 - 20000.00

NCDEX REF.SOY OIL JAN 726.10 23.08.17 UP 660.85 710.00 - 700.00

NCDEX RM SEEDS JAN 4035.00 12.10.17 Sideways

NMCE PEPPER MINI JAN 37633.00 11.05.17 Down 55957.00 - 39500.00 40000.00

NMCE RUBBER JAN 13229.00 13.07.17 Sideways

MCX MENTHA OIL DEC 1860.10 20.07.17 UP 980.00 1750.00 - 1720.00

MCX CARDAMOM JAN 1045.60 07.12.17 UP 1045.60 980.00 - 960.00

MCX SILVER MAR 37036.00 07.12.17 Down 37036.00 - 38500.00 39500.00

MCX GOLD FEB 28667.00 07.12.17 Down 28667.00 - 29500.00 29800.00

MCX COPPER FEB 426.25 07.12.17 Down 426.25 - 440.00 450.00

MCX LEAD DEC 157.50 20.07.17 UP 141.25 156.00 - 152.00

MCX ZINC DEC 198.90 17.10.17 Sideways

MCX NICKEL DEC 710.10 30.11.17 Down 720.10 - 740.00 800.00

MCX ALUMINIUM DEC 129.60 30.11.17 Down 131.80 - 138.00 145.00

MCX CRUDE OIL JAN 3672.00 27.09.17 UP 3416.00 3640.00 - 3600.00

MCX NATURAL GAS DEC 180.00 07.12.17 Down 180.00 - 195.00 200.00

TREND SHEET

*Closing as on 07.12.17

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

Sharp correction was noticed in commodity complex in the week gone by. Gold prices tumbled

to their lowest in over four months last week as the dollar strengthened and investors pulled

out of the safe haven on growing optimism over Donald Trump’s corporate tax cuts. On MCX, it

broke the strong support level of 28900 and silver prices slipped below 37000. Depreciation in

INR capped the downside in bullion counter. It appears that crude prices have been stubbornly

resistant to OPEC’s promise to extend the OPEC production cuts to the end of 2018. It felt for

continuous last two weeks. Stronger dollar also weighed on the crude prices as it makes dollar-

denominated oil purchases more expensive in countries that use other currencies. Oil prices

saw a sharp decline after the US published its inventory data. The country reported a surge in

gasoline inventories which rose by 6.78 million barrels last week, the highest level in 2017.

Crude oil traded near 3650. Natural gas too saw sharp decline in the prices on moderate

temperature. It slipped below the level of 180. Base metal complex prices took correction last

week. Copper futures traded weak on doubts about the strength of Chinese demand for the

metal, an improving supply picture and a jump in warehouse stocks of the metal. Aluminium

saw sharp decline in the prices, downside in crude prices also weighed on the prices of

aluminum.

In agri, mixed sentiments were witnessed. In edible oil and oilseeds counter, only soybean saw

some strength. Rest of the commodities saw decline in the prices. Mustard seed futures have

also declined primarily due to weak market sentiments. Mainly because sluggish demand from

millers as they are facing disparity in crushing of mustard seed and favourable weather in key

mustard growing areas of Rajasthan. Cotton counter looked tired after a long upside rally.

Kapas took correction after six week nonstop rally on profit booking at higher levels. Castor

prices nosedived on fresh arrivals. Rally look tired in mentha and it saw correction after a multi

mnth rally. Overall trend is still bullish. Chana prices weakened further on weakness in other

pulses, traded below its MSP. In spices, dhaniya surprised the market players with its upside

whereas cardamom, turmeric, jeera and pepper moved down.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

COMMODITY UNIT 30.11.17 07.12.17 CHANGEQTY. QTY.

BARLEY MT 160 150 -10CASTOR SEED MT 24365 23073 -1292CHANA MT 770 1123 353CORIANDER NEW MT 6772 8125 1353COTTON SEED OIL CAKE MT 0 1105 1105GUARGUM MT 19385 21341 1956GUARSEED MT 24589 24890 301JEERA NEW MT 3853 5276 1423MAIZE KHARIF MT 40 40 0PEPPER MT 28 28 0RM SEED MT 7779 7204 -575SOYBEAN MT 142904 153618 10714TURMERIC MT 966 672 -294WHEAT MT 966 7588 6622

COMMODITY UNIT 30.11.17 07.12.17 CHANGE

QTY. QTY.

BLACK PEPPER MT 4.01 4.01 0.00

CARDAMOM MT 3.10 3.10 0.00

COTTON BALES 18300.00 22500.00 4200.00

GOLD KGS 442.00 20.00 -422.00

GOLD MINI KGS 6.30 43.20 36.90

GOLD GUINEA KGS 295.68 7.68 -288.00

MENTHA OIL KGS 1467685.00 1389880.40 -77804.60

SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 52857.66 17261.87 -35595.79

•China crude oil imports rose to 37.04 million tonnes in November, or 9.01 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 7.3 million bpd the previous month, and the second-highest level in history.

•India gold imports rose 131.0% to 638.4 tons in the first nine months of the year as jewelers advanced their purchases in 1H17.

•OPEC oil output fell in November by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to its lowest since May.

•U.S. trade deficit increased to a nine-month high in October due to rising oil prices and the widening of America's long-standing deficits with China and Mexico.

•The Union Ministry of Commerce and Industry has approved the proposal of the Spices Board for fixing the CIF value of Rs.500/-per kg as MSP for pepper.

•The government increased the incentive on export of soy meal by 2% to 7% under the Merchandise Export Incentive Scheme.

•Axis Securities, a subsidiary of Axis Bank, has become the first-ever broking arm of a bank to take membership of a commodity exchange by registering itself with NCDEX.

•India's soy meal exports during November quadrupled to 248,000 tons from 61,000 tons a year ago. - Solvent Extractors' Association of India

•Mustard oil mills across the country crushed 475,000 tons of the oilseed in November, up nearly 6% on month. - Mustard Oil Producers Association of India.

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

12

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

2.82%

1.36%

-9.46%

-5.31%

-4.28% -4.22% -4.05%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

PEPPER CARDAMOM NATURAL GAS ZINC MINI LEAD MINI SILVER 1000 COPPER MINI

4.48%

3.75%

1.42% 1.36%

0.79%

-4.36%-4.10%

-2.81% -2.74% -2.65%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

SOYAMEAL CORIANDER SOYABEAN JEERA SHANKARKAPAS PEPPER CHANAOIL

COPPER RM SEEDS

COMMODITY

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 01 07.12.17 CHANGE%

ALUMINIUM LME CASH 2046.50 1994.00 -2.57

COPPER LME CASH 6734.00 6530.50 -3.02

LEAD LME CASH 2505.00 2506.00 0.04

NICKEL LME CASH 11050.00 10795.00 -2.31

ZINC LME CASH 3217.50 3111.00 -3.31

GOLD COMEX FEB 1282.30 1253.10 -2.28

SILVER COMEX MAR 16.39 15.80 -3.60

LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX JAN 58.36 56.69 -2.86

NATURAL GAS NYMEX JAN 3.06 2.76 -9.80

.12.17

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION CHANGE

30.11.17 .12.17

ALUMINIUM 1113750 1098550 -15200

COPPER 191725 193675 1950

NICKEL 380448 378432 -2016

LEAD 145275 145200 -75

ZINC 215300 204850 -10450

07

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 01.12.17 07.12.17 CHANGE (%)

SOYBEAN CBOT JAN DOLLARS PER BUSHEL 994.25 992.00 -0.23

SOY OIL CBOT JAN CENTS PER POUND 33.69 33.33 -1.07

CPO* BMD FEB MYR PER MT 2588.00 2502.00 -3.32

SUGAR LIFFE MAR 10 CENTS PER MT 388.90 371.20 -4.55

13

SPOT PRICES (% change) Castor seed

Castor is a non-edible oilseed crop; basically a cash crop, with average 46% oil

recovery. It is the largest vegetable oil exported out of India. India is the biggest

exporter of castor oil holding about 80% share of the international trade in this

commodity followed by China & Brazil.

Supply Scenario

?As per first advance estimates, castor seed production in the country during

2017-18 is estimated to be 13.96 lakh tonne, the lowest since 2010-11. This

is; however, lower than the fourth advanced estimate of 2016-17 crop of

14.21-lakh tones.

?In 2017-18, castor seed acreage in Gujarat, the largest castor producing

state in the country, increased by about 6% to 5.96 lakh hectares. But the

overall castor acreage in the country is almost at the same level as last year.

?Castor crop had been on a decline due to persistently lower prices since

2011-12, when production stood at 22.95-lakh tones.

?Market participants maintained that carryover stock from the 2016-17 crop

will be lower at around 1.5-lakh tonnes, thereby reducing the net availability

of the oilseed.

?Anticipation of lower output of castor seed this year is also likely to add to

the bullish sentiments.Castor seed production in India (In lakh tonnes)

Demand Scenario

• India meets over 80 per

cent of demand for castor

oil, thereby enjoying a

dominant position in the

world castor scenario.

• The country’s exports of

castor oil and its derivatives

are estimated to be over Rs

6,500 crore ($1 billion) per

annum.

• The global castor derivative

market, estimated to be worth over $3 billion, is highly dependent on India.

• India's castor meal exports have been encouraging this financial year as the

country exported about 302,597 tonne of meals during April-October 2017 as

per latest data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA).

The country had exported 253,162 tonne of meals during April-October 2016.

• The country recorded its highest ever single month exports of 1.19 lakh tonne

in June this year.

• South Korea is major importer of Indian castor meal followed by Taiwan and

Europe. South Korea has imported 246,321 tons of castor meal during April-

October 2017.

• As per Solvent Extractors' Association of India, India's castor oil exports in

October pegged at 42,457 tn, down 20% from 53,207 tn as compared to same

period last year. Subdued demand from China weighed on overall exports in

October. A significant improvement in exports in the coming months is

unexpected as overseas demand for castor oil may not pick up.

• During the first half of 2017-18, castor oil exports— at 2.70 lakh tonnes—have

been lower as compared to last year.

• The main export destination for castor oil from the country is China followed

by Netherlands, US and France. These countries accounted for about 80% of

total castor oil exports from the country during 2016-17.

* Closing of COMEX & NYMEX as on 22.11.17 * Previous closing of CPO as on 04.12.17

-5.30

-2.56

-2.09

-2.01

-1.56

-1.46

-0.91

-0.67

-0.63

0.12

0.90

1.86

1.98

3.93

4.99

5.53

-6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00

GUAR GUM (JODHPUR)

SUGAR (KOLKATA)

WHEAT (DELHI)

GUAR SEED (JODHPUR)

CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)

TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)

MUSTARD (JAIPUR)

PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)

RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)

BARLEY (JAIPUR)

JEERA (UNJHA)

COTTON SEED OIL CAKE (AKOLA)

COTTON (KADI)

SOYABEAN (INDORE)

GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)

CORIANDER (KOTA)

Source : SEA

14

IPO

15

16

(FOR TRUST ONLY) (FOR WOMEN ONLY)

NEW FUND OFFER

17

Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns

Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns

Annualised

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Annualised

18