Upload
tbpthinktank
View
227
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
1/18
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
2/18
Total Nonagricultural Employment Since 1990in Selected States
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Texas
U.S.
California
New York
Florida
Index, January 1990 = 100
Illinois
Michigan
+61%
+8%
+26%
Increasesince 1990
+19%
+43%
+11%
+5%
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
3/18
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115120
125
2000 2005 2010
Index, January 2000 = 100
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Total Nonagricultural Employment Since 2000in Selected States
+21%
12%
+5%
Increasesince 2000
+4%
+10%
+5%
3%
Texas
U.S.
CaliforniaNew York
Florida
Illinois
Michigan
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
4/18
2013 Employment Growth in Texas
NOTES: Categories are North American Industry Classification System supersectors. Data seasonally adjusted.SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
67.0
46.743.6
34.9
17.6 15.4 14.710.7 10.4 9.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Trade, Transp& Utilities(20.1%)
Prof. &BusinessServices(13.1%)
Leisure &Hospitality
(10.2%)
Educational &Health
Services(13.4%)
Oil & GasExtraction and
MiningSupport (2.5%)
Construction(5.4%)
FinancialActivities
(6.1%)
Government (16.0%)
Manufacturing(7.8%)
Information(1.8%)
Thousands of jobs 2013 total jobs gained in Texas = 266,900
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
5/18
Job Growth by Wage Quartile,2000-12
NOTES: Calculations include workers over age 15 with positive wages and exclude the self-employed. Wagequartiles constructed based on U.S. 2000 wage distribution.SOURCE: Current Population Survey Merged Outgoing Rotation Groups, 2000, 2012.
18.6
10.4
31.0 30.3
9.7
-6.9
0.9
9.9
-10
-5
0
510
15
20
25
30
35
Lowest wage quartile Lower-middle wagequartile
Upper-middle wagequartile
Highest wage quartile
Texas U.S. minus Texas
Percent change
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
6/18
Adios Texas Ratio
Texas has more banks than any other state yetexperienced just 11 of the 489 U.S. bank failuressince the Great Recession began Time to rename the Texas Ratio, a measure of
bad assets versus available capital
The state escaped the brunt of the housing sectorfallout and the spike in underwater mortgages
NOTE: Texas ratio defined as the book value of all nonperforming assets plus other real estate owned dividedby tangible equity capital plus loan loss reserves.
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
7/18
Share of Unprofitable Banks:U.S. and 11th District
* YTD through third quarter 2013.SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
*0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
U.S. 11th District
Percent of banks reporting a net loss
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
8/18
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
U.S. minus Texas
Texas
Index, Jan. 2000=100*
8%
36%
9%
11%
15% 18%
3%
Other
Mexico
Canada
European Union
As ia, excl . China
Latin America, excl.MexicoChina
2013:Q3
Texas Export Growth
* Real, seasonally adjusted.SOURCES: Census Bureau; World Institute for Strategic Economic Research; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
+26%since peak
+3%
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
9/18
Employment by Metro Area
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
94
96
98
100102
104
106
108
110
112
T T +10 T +20 T +30 T +40 T +50 T +60 T +70
Index, peak employment = 100
TexasHouston
El Paso
Austin
T = months from peak employment
Dallas-Ft. Worth
San Antonio
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
10/18
43
8011,149
1,073
1,597
1,521
2,5582,540
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
SOURCES: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, H.3 release.
Total Reserves of Depository Institutions
Bank Reserves Have Ballooned
Bil lions, Reserves ($)QE3
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
11/18
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Total assets
Trillions of dollars
$4.13Jan. 2014
$2.869/26/12
SOURCES: Federal Reserve Board; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
$0.94
9/10/08
Interestrates cutto the zerobound
Lehman failure QE3
Feds Balance Sheet Has Quadrupled in Size
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
12/18
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Other
Agency MBS + agency debt
Treasury securities
Trillions of dollars
assets
15%0%
85%
11/28/07
54%
8%
38%48%9/10/08
0%51%
Lehman failure
10%32%58%
9/26/12
QE3
SOURCES: Federal Reserve Board; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Now Has Large Holdings of Agency Debt and MBS
Agency debt and MBSTreasury securities
Other assets
Share of Total Portfolio
Jan. 2014
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
13/18
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Other
More than 5 years
Over 1 to 5 yearsUp to 1 year
Trillions of dollars
79%20%
1%
9/26/12
22%30%48%
11/28/07> 5 years
39%9/10/08
34%27%
Lehman failure QE3
21%
79%
0%
SOURCES: Federal Reserve Board; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
assets
1 5 years< 1 year
And Has a Portfolio with Longer Terms to Maturity
Share of Total Portfolio
Jan. 2014
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
14/18
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Excess reserves
Required reservesNon-bank currency
Trillions of dollars
SOURCES: Federal Reserve Board; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
But Newly Created Money MostlySitting Fallow as Excess Reserves
54%4%
42%
9/26/12QE3
$2.56T
31%
65%
4%
$3.73T
$2.45T inexcess
reserves
Lehman failure
5%Required ReservesNon-bank Currency
Share of Monetary Base 9/10/08
0%
95%
Excess Reserves
$0.85T
Jan. 2014
MonetaryBase
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
15/18
U.S. Economic Dashboard
NOTE: Data updated as of February 10, 2014.
9 0 . 0
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
11.5 2 2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1.4
Trimmed MeanPCE Inflation (%)
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.51
1.5 22.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
2.7 Year-over-year
Real GDP growth
44.5
5
5.5
66.5 7 7.5
8
8.5
9
9.510
6.6
Unemploymentrate (%)
Percent of jobs recovered
33.5
4
4.5
55.5
6 6.5 77.5
8
8.5
99.5
10
3.68
Junk-bondspread (%)
Warning lights
Unemp.jump
Yieldcurve
Oilshock
Enginestall
55.5
6
6.5
77.5 8 8.5
9
9.5
10
10.511
5.81
High YieldCorp. Debt (%)
!
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
16/18
Corporate Bond Yields and Spreads Remain LowPercent
SOURCES: Moodys, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
5.815
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
0246
810
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Junk bond / 7-year Treasury spread
Historical average spread:1997-Present
Percent
3.7
5.6
Junk bond yield
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
17/18
8/13/2019 Fs 140211 Slides
18/18
Richard W. Fisher President and CEOFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Dallas, TexasFebruary 11, 2014