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Post Deyr 2012/13
February 1st, 2013
Information for Better Livelihoods
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Swiss Agency for Development and CooperaHon SDC
Donors Technical Partner
FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Overall Timeline
FSNAU/Partner Planning Meeting (Nairobi) November 28, 2012
Regional Planning Meetings (Field) December 17-18, 2012
Fieldwork December 19 – 28, 2012
Regional Analysis Workshops (Field) December 31, 2012 - January 4, 2013
All Team Analysis Workshops (Hargeysa) January 7 – 18, 2013
Vetting Meetings January 22 (Nut) & 28 (FS), 2013
Release of Results
Post-Deyr 2012/13 Presentation of Findings and Technical Release February 1, 2013
Regional Presentations in Somalia February 2013
Technical Series Reports February 21 (Nut) & 25 (FS), 2013
FSNAU Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Partner Par:cipa:on
Analysis Workshop – Total 29
FEWS NET NAIROBI 4 WFP 5 HADMA 2 FAO Pales:ne 1 FAO Regional 1 FSC 2 Government Focal Points (Somaliland and Puntland) 15
Total Number of Partners Par:cipa:ng in Field Assessments and Analysis Workshop and VeVng – Total‐133
Food Security Field Assessment – Total 61
Na:onal Ins:tu:ons 2 Local NGOs 11 Interna:onal NGOs 7 Ministries 12 FEWS NET 3 UN 4 Enumerators 8 Focal Points 15
Nutri:on Field Assessment – Total 28
Local NGOs 3 Interna:onal NGOs 4 Ministries 16 Local Authori:es 3 UN 2
Nutri:on VeVng – Total 15 Local NGOs 9 Interna:onal NGOs 4 UN 2
Food Security Assessment Access and Field Monitoring Loca:ons
FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment
Food Security Post‐Deyr 2012/13 Informa:on Sources Food Security Assessment Interviews/ Secondary Data
Region
FS Focus Group Discussions (Dec ‘12) Rural FGDs Urban FGD IDP FGD
Bari 64 ‐ ‐ Nugal & North Mudug 60 ‐ ‐ Awdal/Galbeed 50 ‐ ‐ Togdheer 31 ‐ ‐ Sool 41 ‐ ‐ Sanaag 39 ‐ ‐ South Mudug 40 12 18 Galgadud 62 18 143 Hiran 63 18 18 M. Shabelle 59 17 18 L. Shabelle 98 18 ‐ Bay 60 18 18 Bakool 63 18 _ Gedo 85 18 18 M. Juba 59 18 ‐ L. Juba 54 18 ‐ Total 928 173 233
Region FS HH Surveys (Nov‐Dec ‘12)
Urban IDP Se^lement Bari 451 974 Nugal & North Mudug 938 1,418
Awdal/Galbeed 900 947
Togdher 451 490 Sool 425 ‐ Sanaag 433 ‐ Banadir 450 750
4,048 4,579
Secondary Sources:
• Satellite Imagery Data • SWALIM Land Cover and Land Use
• SWALIM/ FSNAU/ FEWS NET Rain Gauges
• Monthly Market Price and Labor wage data • Rural Market Monitoring data
• Port and Cross‐border trade StaHsHcs
• Livelihood baseline studies
• UNHCR IDP populaHon esHmates
Deyr 2012/13 Respondents by Gender
Urban Surveys:
581 males and 2,991 females.
HHs categories‐Urban North:
o 2,059 HHs dependent on men
o 1,021 HHs dependent on women
o 469 HHs dependent on both women and men
IDP se^lements:
3,068 HHs dependent on both men and women
632 HHs dependent on women
547 HHs dependent on men
For meaningful gender results, HHs have been grouped into three fundamental categories:
Households dependent on men or man for food or income to buy food.
Households dependent on women or woman for food or income to buy food.
Households dependent on both woman and man for food or income to buy food.
Nutri:on Informa:on Sources Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012
Region Rural livelihood surveys conducted
Urban livelihood surveys conducted
IDP surveys conducted
Total No. of Surveys
Northwest, northeast
9 (W.Golis, E. Golis/NW, Agro‐p, Hawd, Sool plateau, Nugal valley, E. Golis/NE, Coastal deeh/NE
7 (Awdal, W. Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, Bari, Nugal,
7 (Hargeisa, Burao, Berbera, Bossaso, Qardho, Garowe, Galkayo)
23
Central 2 (Hawd, Addun)
2 (Mudug, Galgadud)
1 (Dusamareb/Guriel) 5
South 7 (Beletweyn District, Mataban, Bay, Bakool pastoral, N. Gedo Pastora, agro‐past. and riverine)
2 (Mog, Afgoye)
5 (Mogadishu, Kismayo, Dolow, Dobley, Baidoa)
14
Total 18 11 13 42
42 Nutri:on Surveys (based on WHZ, WHO GS 2006 )
Rapid MUAC assessments (8): Juba (3), South Gedo (3), Central coastal deeh (1), Cowpea belt (1) Health Center Monitoring (HIS): Collected from 130 health faciliHes in accessible regions in the period Jul‐Dec’12.
Related Selec:ve Feeding Centre Data: obtained from UNICEF, WFP and partner agencies
Secondary Related Data (risk factors for deteriora:on) • WHO & Somalia emergency weekly health updates, October‐January 2013)
• Food security, displacements data. (Sources: FSNAU, OCHA and UNHCR bulleHns).
CLIMATE Deyr 2012/13 Rainfall Performance
TAMSAT RFE Percent Anomaly (Oct‐Dec)
Source : JRC TAMSAT
Overall Statement: Deyr 2012 rains started earlier than normal (early Oct). Rainfall performance was mixed in terms of amount, temporal distribuHon, and spaHal coverage across the country. The Oct to Dec rainfall esHmates compared to the Long Term Mean (1983‐ 2011) shows normal to above normal rainfall in most part of the country
Moderate Hays rains (Dec‐Jan) were received in most of the Coastal areas of Bari region and Guban pastoral excluding Zeylac district in December 2012; No Hays rains precipitated in January 2013.
Rainfall performance was poor in parts of Sanag, Sool regions, and north Gedo and Lower Juba agropastoral;
Dry spell reported in late Nov and early Dec in most of the North, Central, Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions;
Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Murjan reported in late October in Garowe and Eyl Districts.
Overall Statement:
Improved rangeland (pasture and browse) condiHons, as well as water resources in most parts of the country. This is due to the effects of moderate to good Deyr 2012/13 and the Gu 2012 rains. However, compared to their ten year (2001‐2010) average, rangeland resources are sHll significantly below average in Juba, upper Gedo, Sool, Sanaag, Awdal and Guban pastoral areas of Waqooyi Galbeed.
CLIMATE Vegeta:on Condi:ons in the Deyr 2012 Season
Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET
NDVI eMODIS Anomaly, December 21‐30, 2012
CLIMATE FORECAST Hotter than Normal Dry Season (JFM) and Normal
to Below Normal Long Rains (MAM)
ECMWF’s forecast surface temp anomalies (mm): Jan- Mar. 2013
1. Hotter than normal dry season expected across the region and especially the northern and eastern sector (+1o to +2oC) Northern Kenya, South Somalia, central and western Ethiopia.
2. Long rains season (Mar – May), raises concerns for normal to below rainfall performance over the eastern sector of the region, including parts of northeastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and Somalia.
ECMWF forecast rainfall anomalies (mm): Mar - May 2013
CIVIL INSECURITY
Civil insecurity remains one of the key factors affecting the food security situation in many parts of Somalia. In spite of the increased control of the Federal Government/AMISOM in the South, armed confrontations, land mines, targeted killings still persist in most of the main towns of South-Central.
Key Events and Impacts: Expansion of Somali Government /AMISOM controlled areas Clan fighting and revenge killings in Central Conflict b/w SL government and Khatumo group in the North (Huddun/ Sool) Tensions over local government election results in Zeylac & Awdal (Dec ‘12) Blockages in key towns in Bay, Bakool, Juba and Shabelle regions affecting trade and population movements Improved trade and population movements in Mogadishu Inflow of Somali refugees from neighboring (Kenya) and other countries Humanitarian access constraints continued in South-Central
Most Likely Scenario for January-June 2013: Increased government offensive in other parts of the South; restricted humanitarian access; continued disruption of trade and movements in conflict induced-areas
MARKETS Trends in Exchange Rates
Somali Shilling (SoSh): stable during second half of 2012; appreciated from Dec ’11, parHcularly in Northeast (22%)
Somaliland Shilling (SlSh): moderate depreciaHon (15%) in value since Dec ‘11.
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
SlSh
per
US
Dol
lar
SoSh
per
US
Dol
lar
Month
Baidoa Bossasso Galkayo Mogadishu Hargeisa
Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates
MARKETS
Import commodity prices: • Stable prices since July 2012 in the South; • Stable/modest decline in Northeast SoSh areas and Central due to relaHvely stronger shilling • Stable prices except for vegetable oil in the SISh zone due to steady supply through Berbera Port.
Factors Affec:ng Import Commodity Prices (July –Dec 2012)
• Decreasing local food prices • Improved Mogadishu port acHviHes • Improving security • Stable SoSh
Imported Commodi:es (Diesel Price)
MARKETS
Comparison of Diesel Prices (Asia Dubai), Mogadishu and Bossaso
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Pric
e pe
r Litr
e (S
LSH
)
Pric
e pe
r Litr
e (S
oSH
)
Month
Regional Trends in Diesel Prices (SOSH/SLSH)
Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt Central Banadir NorthWest
Imported Commodi:es (Rice)
Comparison of Rice Prices (Bangkok FOB), Mogadishu and Bossaso
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000 D
ec-1
2
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Pric
e pe
r Kg(
SLS
H)
Pric
e pe
r Kg
(SoS
H)
Month
Regional Trends in Rice Prices (SOSH/SLSH)
Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt Central Banadir NorthWest
MARKETS
Imported Commodi:es (Sugar Price)
MARKETS
Comparison of Sugar Prices: Interna:onal (ISO), Mogadishu and Bossaso
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Pric
e pe
r Kg
(SLS
H)
Pric
e pe
r Kg
(SoS
H)
Month
Regional Trends in Sugar Prices (SOSH/SLSH)
Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt Central Banadir NorthWest
Imported Commodi:es (Veg. Oil and Wheat Flour Price)
MARKETS
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Pric
e pe
r Litr
e (S
LSH
)
Pric
e pe
r Litr
e (S
oSH
)
Month
Regional Trends in Vegetable Oil Prices (SOSH/SLSH)
Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt Central Banadir NorthWest
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
0 5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Pric
e pe
r Kg
(SLS
H)
Pric
e pe
r Kg
(SoS
H)
Month
Regional Trends in Wheat Flour Prices (SOSH/SLSH)
Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt Central Banadir NorthWest
Consumer Price Index MARKETS
• Slight decline in CPI rates (7%) in SoSh regions. The CPI is stable in northwestern parts of the country.
• Significant decrease (24%) in annual inflation rates in the SoSh areas;
• Factors driving down the cost of living in South-Central: o Reduced local cereal (red
sorghum) prices o Reduced/stable prices of
imported food
MARKETS Likely Developments (Jan‐June 2013)
• Staple cereal prices are expected to decline (seasonal trend) unHl March 2013 owing to increased supply from the recent Deyr harvest; o Concerns: farm‐gate prices may not cover costs of producHon
• RelaHve stability across the country may sustain the strength of the SoSh, hence the stability in the price of food imports;
• An increase in cross border trade acHviHes is expected in light of the gradual improvements in the security situaHon and road networks (end of rainy season).
Average to good rangeland condiHons (pasture and water) in most of the livelihoods except:
o North: Sool Plateau of Sanaag and Nugaal Valley
o South and Central: north Gedo, Coastal Deeh of Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba (poor)
Normal livestock migraHon in most livelihoods except in Sool Plateau and Nugaal valley
Livestock migraHon is to remain within normal range in the South even in the condiHons of below normal Gu (current forecast)
Rangeland Condi:ons and Livestock Migra:on
o Livestock body condi:on: Improved (average to good) across all the livelihoods, except in west Guban
o Livestock prices: remained all Hme high and increasing trend
o Produc:on and reproduc:on: Most of the livestock species are either in the gestaHon or lactaHon period, except in west Guban and parts of Sool and Coastal Deeh (Bari and Central)
o Milk produc:on: Average in most of the livelihoods. ExcepHons are west Guban, Sool Plateau and parts of Coastal Deeh (Bari and Central regions)
o Herd growth for the poor wealth: Increasing trends for all species but holding of small ruminants and camle among the poor is sHll below baseline levels in most of the pastoral livelihoods Poor sheep/goat Body condi:on, Guban, FSNAU, Dec’12
Good Camel Body condi:on, Addun, North Mudug, FSNAU, Dec’12
Regional Average Monthly Prices Ca^le (SoSh/SlSh)
Trends in Local Ca^le Prices
Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices LIVESTOCK
Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices in the South (SOSH)
Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices in Northern and Central Regions
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000
1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16 Pr
ice
per H
ead
of G
oat (
SOSH
) SorghumBelt Shabelle Valley Juba Valley
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000
1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16 Pric
e pe
r Hea
d of
Goa
t (SL
SH)
Pric
e pe
r Hea
d of
Goa
t (SO
SH)
NE Central NW (SLSH)
LIVESTOCK
Monthly Trends in Fresh Camel Milk Prices (SoSh/SlSh)
Trends in Fresh Camel and Ca^le Milk Prices
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
SlSh per Litre
SoS
h pe
r Litr
e
Month
SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley Central NE NW
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
SlSh per Litre
SoS
h pe
r Litr
e
Month
SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley
Central NW
Monthly Trend in Fresh Ca^le Milk Prices (SoSh/ SlSh)
Trends in 2012 Livestock Exports Through Berbera & Bossaso
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900
Pric
e Pe
r Hea
d (U
S$)
Live
stoc
k Ex
port
s (H
eads
) Tho
usan
ds
Month
Berbera & Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)
Camel Exports Cattle Exports Shoats Exports Hargesia Price Galkayo Price Bossaso Price Burao Price
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Num
ber o
f Hea
ds
July-Dec Livestock Exports Jan-June Livestock Exports
5-year Average (2007-2011)
Total Annual Livestock Exports
AGRICULTURE Trends in Cereal Produc:on (South and Northwest)
Cereal ProducHon Trends in Northwest
Deyr Cereal ProducHon Trends in Southern Somalia
Annual Cereal ProducHon Trends in Southern Somalia 0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MT
Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MT
Deyr Gu Overall PWA 5 year Avrg
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2010 2011 2012
MT
Maize Sorghum Pet Average
South: Third highest Deyr cereal produc:on since 1995(144% of Deyr avg for 1995‐2011); sorghum and maize producHon of about 143,000MT
Red sorghum represents over two‐thirds of the total producHon
Northwest AP: Good Gu/Karan (73,000MT) producHon of cereals (104% of PET Avg: 2010‐2011);
White sorghum accounts for 88% of the total cereal producHon
AGRICULTURE Deyr 2012/13 Cereal Produc:on in Southern Somalia
Regions Deyr Off‐Season Maize: March ‐ April 2013
Maize (MT) Total Cereal (MT)
Gedo 1000 1000
Total 1000 1000
Regions Deyr 2012 Produc:on in MT Deyr 2012 as % of
Deyr 2011
Deyr 2012 as % of Deyr
(1995‐2011)
Deyr 2012 as % of 5YR average (2007‐2011) Maize Sorghum Total Cereal
Bakool 1,000 8,000 9,000 78% 359% 222%
Bay 6,000 51,000 57,000 93% 172% 145%
Gedo 2,000 4,000 6,000 82% 107% 96%
Hiran 2,000 6,000 8,000 128% 123% 240%
Juba Dhexe (Middle)
4,000 3,000 7,000 107% 178% 154%
Juba Hoose (Lower)
2,000 0 2,000 220% 171% 302%
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)
10,000 7,000 17,000 70% 141% 157%
Shabelle Hoose (Lower)
20,000 17,000 37,000 55% 112% 145%
Deyr 2011Total 47,000 96,000 143,000 77% 146% 151%
AGRICULTURE Cereal Produc:on in Northwest
Gu‐Karan Cereal Produc:on Es:mates in Somaliland (North West)
Regions
Gu‐Karan 2012 Produc:on in MT
Gu‐Karan 2012 as % of Gu‐Karan 2011
Gu‐Karan 2012 as % of Gu‐Karan PWA
(1998‐2011)
Gu‐Karan 2012 as % of
5 year average
(2007‐2011) Maize Sorghum Total Cereal
Awdal 1,000 15,000 17,000 121% 311% 183%
Togdheer 0 4,000 4,000 572% 494% 279%
Woqooyi Galbeed
6,000 45,000 52,000 97% 272% 185%
Gu‐Karan 2012 Total 7,000 64,000 73,000 107% 288% 188%
Deyr 2012/13 Cereal Produc:on by Region Maize Produc:on Deyr 2012/13 by Region
AGRICULTURE Regional Cereal (Maize and Sorghum) Contribu:ons in Southern Somalia
Sorghum Produc:on Deyr 2012/13 by Region
Bakool 6%
Bay 40%
Gedo 4%
Hiraan 5%
Juba Dhexe(Middle)
5%
Juba Hoose(lower)
2% Shabelle Dhexe
(middle) 12%
Shabelle lower (hoose)
26% Bakool 2%
Bay 12%
Gedo 4%
Hiraan 4%
Juba Dhexe(Middl
e) 9%
Juba Hoose(lower
) 5%
Shabelle Dhexe (middle) 21% Shabelle
lower (hoose) 43%
Bakool 8%
Bay 54%
Gedo 4%
Hiraan 6%
Juba Dhexe(Middle
) 3%
Juba Hoose(lower)
0%
Shabelle Dhexe
(middle) 7%
Shabelle lower (hoose)
18%
AGRICULTURE Deyr 2012/13 Good Sorghum Crops
Good Sorghum Crops. KooHn, Wanlaweyn, L. Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. 2012
Good Sorghum Crop. Bulo Adde, Qansah Dheere, Bay. FSNAU, Dec. 2012
Good Maize Crop. Suryo, Garboharey, Gedo. FSNAU, Dec. 2012
Good Sorghum Crop Harvest. Dila, Baki, Awdal. FSNAU, Nov. 2012
AGRICULTURE Deyr 2012/13 Other Crop
Produc:on Es:mates in Somalia
Estimated 51,000MT of other crops:
Rice (1,500MT) – Middle Shabelle
Cowpea (15,000MT) – Central (38%); Bay (24%); Lower Shabelle (19%); the rest (M. Shabelle, Jubas, Bakool)
Sesame (23,000MT) – L. Shabelle (46%); M. Juba (35%); the rest (Bay, L. Juba, M. Shabelle)
Groundnut (2,000MT) – Bay
Onions (7,500MT) - Hiran (94%); Gedo (6%)
Watermelon (2,000MT) – Hiran (84%); Gedo (16%)
Good Sesame Crop. Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 2012
Good Groundnut Crop. Hagarkaa, Baidoa, Bay. FSNAU, Dec. 2012
AGRICULTURE Regional Trends in Cereal Prices and Agriculture Daily Rate
Trends in White Maize Prices [Shabelle & Juba Riverine] Trends in White Sorghum Prices [North West]
Trends in Red Sorghum Price [Sorghum Belt]
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
SoS
h
Month
SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley
Trends in Agriculture Daily Labor Rate [Southern regions]
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Dec‐12
Mar‐13
Jun‐13
Sep‐13
Dec‐13
Mar‐14
Jun‐14
Sep‐14
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
Sep‐16
Dec‐16
Price pe
r Kg
(SOSH
)
Month
Bardera (Red Sorghum 1 kg) Baidoa ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Huddur ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Beletweyne (White Sorghum 1kg)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000 Dec‐12
Mar‐13
Jun‐13
Sep‐13
Dec‐13
Mar‐14
Jun‐14
Sep‐14
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
Sep‐16
Dec‐16
Price pe
r Kg
(SOSH
)
Month
Jamame (White Maize 1kg) Jilib (White Maize 1kg)
Qorioley (White Maize 1kg) Jowhar (White Maize 1kg)
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
Dec‐12
Mar‐13
Jun‐13
Sep‐13
Dec‐13
Mar‐14
Jun‐14
Sep‐14
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
Sep‐16
Dec‐16
Price Pe
r Kg
(SLSH)
Month
Hargeisa (White Sorghum 1kg) Borama (White Sorghum 1kg)
Togwajale (White Sorghum 1kg) Burao (White Sorghum 1kg)
Projected Cereal Availability: 2013 Preliminary Cereal Balance
Sheet (CBS) in ‘000’MT
33
Total cereal requirement in Somalia is estimated at 1 million tons based on 135kg per capita food needs
Current CBS is based on Deyr 2012/13, Gu-Karan 2012 harvests in NW and projections for Gu 2013 production (5yr avg), imports (3-yr avg), and food assistance (WFP plan for 2013).
The total deficit of 21% in Jan-Dec 2013
Current estimate does not include all planned food assistance for Somalia
81
296
414
(250) food aid supply
commercial import supply domesHc producHon deficit
NUTRITION SECTOR Global, WHO GS, WHZ<‐2z scores and/or Oedema, (GAM) &
Severe Acute Malnutri:on, WHO GS, WHZ & <‐3 and/or Oedema (SAM), Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012
1. North/Central: GAM is 10 – 14.9% in all rural and urban livelihoods except for W. Golis >15% (the latter is consistent with national and Deyr median rate of 16.2% and 15.7%, respectively for 2001-2011); Sool Plateau, Urban (Sool, Togdheer) – 5-9.9%.
2. IDPs: GAM rates >15% except for Hargeisa, Garowe and Baidoa (10-14.9%). Mogadishu IDP has deteriorated to 16% from 9.6%.
3. South: GAM is above 15% in most of the assessed rural South (except for Juba pastoral, Beletweyne, Mataban, Mogadishu which is lower). This is consistent with Deyr median rate.
4. Gender: Only in 2 of the 42 surveys, (Hawd/NE-Central and Bossaso IDPs) there is statistically significant difference between GAM and child Sex and Age. More boys tend to be malnourished compared to girls. In Bossaso IDPs, younger children (<24 months) are significantly more malnourished, while in Hawd, it is the older children (>24 mths).
0
15
30 Agrop
astoralists of N
W
W. G
olis/G
uban
E. Golis/N
W
E. Golis/N
E
Nugal Valley
Haw
d (NW)
Sool Plateau
Coastal deeh/NE
Haw
d/NE,Ce
ntral
Add
un/N
E, Cen
tral
Awdal U
rban
W. G
albe
ed Urban
Togdhe
er Urban
Sool Urban
Sanaag Urban
Nugal Urban
Mud
ug Urban
Galgadu
ud Urban
Hargeisa IDPs
Burao IDPs
Berbera IDPs
Bossaso IDPs
Qardh
o IDPs
Garow
e IDPs
Galkayo ID
Ps
Guriel/Dusam
areb
IDP
Dolo IDPs
Dob
ley IDPs
Kism
ayo IDPs
Baidoa ID
Ps
Mogadishu
IDPs
Afgoye Town
Bay Agrop
astoral
Mogadishu
Tow
n
BakoolPast
Beletw
eyne
District
Mataban District
N. G
edo Pastoral
N. G
edo Agro‐p
N. G
edo riverine
North & Central Regions Southern Regions
% acutely m
alno
urishe
d
GAM SAM
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 Sool Plateau
Add
un
Haw
d/NW
Coastal D
eeh/NE
East Golis/N
E
Nugal Valley
West G
olis/G
uban
Agro‐Pastoral of N
W
East Golis/N
W
Nugal Valley
Hargeisa IDP
Berbera IDP
Haw
d
Add
un
Beletw
eyne
District
Mataban District
Mogadishu
Tow
n
Afgoye Town
Bay Agrop
astoral
Bakool Pastoral
N. G
edo pastoral
N. G
edo Agrop
astoral
N. G
edo Riverine
Mogadishu
IDPs
Kism
ayo IDPs
Dob
ley IDPs
Dolo IDPs
Dusam
areb
IDPs
Galkayo ID
Ps
Qardh
o IDPs
Garow
e IDPs
Bossaso IDPs
Berbera IDPs
Burao IDPs
Hargeisa IDPs
Baidoa ID
Ps
North Central South IDPs
%
Childhood diseases assessed by recall: Suspected malaria, pneumonia, diarrhea and measles
Across the surveyed population groups, reported morbidity amongst at least 20% of the assessed children, except for East Golis/NW, which is 16%
Morbidity was highest in Beletweyne (53.2%), Mataban (50.3%), N. Gedo pastoral (52.5%), Mogadishu IDPs (47.4%) and Bossaso IDPs (46.6%).
Morbidity (%) based on 2 week recall period, October‐December 2012
NUTRITION SECTOR
Seasonal Trends of Morbidity, Diarrhea and GAM, 2001‐2012
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Gu Gu Gu Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Deyr Gu Deyr Gu DEyr
2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
M. & L. Juba Regions, 2003‐2012 GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Gu
Hagaa
Hagaa
Jilaal
Gu
Deyr
Gu
Deyr
Gu
Deyr
Gu
Deyr
2002 2003 2006 2007 2009 2011 2012
Bay Region, 2002‐2012
GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea
‐10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Hagaa
Deyr
Gu
Hagaa
Deyr
Deyr
Gu
Deyr
Gu
Deyr
2003 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012
Togdher Region, 2003‐2012
GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea
‐10.0%
10.0%
30.0%
50.0%
70.0%
GU
Hagaa
Deyr
Jilaal
GU
Hagaa
Deyr
Jilaal
GU
Hagaa
Deyr
Jilaal
GU
Hagaa
Deyr
Hagaa
Jilaal
GU
Hagaa
Deyr
Jilaal
GU
Hagaa
Deyr
Jilaal
GU
Hagaa
Deyr
GU
Deyr
GU
Deyr
GU
Deyr
Gu
Deyr
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Assessed Somali popula:ons, 2001‐2012 Overall morbidity Diarrhoea GAM
• Meta-data analysis (2001-2011) indicates significant association between reported morbidity &GAM (RR=1.37) • Diarrhea posed the highest risk (RR=1.43)
NUTRITION SECTOR
Retrospec:ve (90 days) crude (CDR) and the under five (U5DR) per 10,000 per day, Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012
North: CDR < 0.5 (Acceptable situation based on UNICEF 2005 classification) in all
assessed population groups except, Qardho and Guriel IDPs (Alert - 0.5 and
0.85 respectively).
South: CDR is generally within Alert level (0.5-0.9),
and below 0.92, the median for South for 2007-2011, except for Dolo IDPs (1.27) -
Serious & Dobley IDPs (1.92) - Critical. Main cause of deaths (reported) is AWD and
suspected pneumonia.
0 0.5 1
1.5 2
2.5 3
3.5
NW Agrop
astoral
WGolis/G
uban
EGolis07
12 (N
W)
East Golis/N
E
Nugal07
12
Haw
d (NW)
Sool07
12
Coastal deeh/NE
Haw
d/NE,Ce
ntral
Add
un/N
E, Cen
tral
Hargeisa IDPs
Burao IDPs
Berbera IDPs
Bossaso IDPs
Qardh
o IDPs
Garow
e IDPs
Galkayo ID
Ps
Guriel/Dusam
areb
IDP
Dolo IDPs
Dob
ley IDPs
Kism
ayo IDPs
Baidoa ID
Ps
Mogadishu
IDPs
BayA
grop
BakoolPast
Afgoye Town
Mogadishu
Tow
n
Beletw
eyne
District
Mataban District
NW/NE/Central Regions Southern Regions
Death ra
te/10,00
0/da
y CDR U5DR
NUTRITION SECTOR
• GAM Rates: Improvements from Very CriHcal levels from July to December 2012 among pastoralists of W. Golis/Guban (Cri?cal) and Nugal Valley (Serious), and agropastoralists of Bay (Cri?cal). DeterioraHon in Mataban (Hiran) to Very Cri?cal.
• SAM Rates: Improvements to, or sustained Acceptable levels (<2.5%) except in Hawd (NW), Addun (Central) ‐Alert (3.0‐3.1), N. Gedo agro‐pastoralists (3.8), Serious, Beletweyne (4.9), CriHcal, and Mataban (7.4), Very CriHcal. IDPs in Dolo (5.4), Dobley (5.1), Berbera (6.6) and Qardho (7.9) in CriHcal –Very CriHcal levels.
• Death rates: Crude (per 10,000 per day) are below emergency level of 2 across Somalia; U5 (per 10,000 per day) are below emergency level of 4 across Somalia.
Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2013 NUTRITION SECTOR
Es:mated cases of acutely malnourished children (WHZ – WHO GS)
National trends in estimated proportion acutely malnourished under five boys & girls (Aug ‘11- Jan’13)
National level (1.5 million U5 year old boys & girls)
August 2011 January 2012 August 2012 January 2013
Total acutely malnourished 450,000 (30%) 323,000 (22%) 236,000 (16%) 215,000 (14.5%)
Total severely malnourished 190,000 (13%) 93,000 (6%) 54,000 (3.5%) 46,000 (3.1%)
12.2 10.8 8.0 7.6 7.3 7.0 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.7 1.5 1.3
0.0 5.0
10.0 15.0 20.0
Banadir
Bay
Lower Ju
ba
Hira
n
Lower
Shabelle
Woq
ooye
Galbe
ed
Bakool
Middle Juba
Ged
o
Galgadu
d
Middle
Shabelle
Togdhe
r
Bari
Mud
ug
Awdal
Sanaag
Sool
Nugal
Prop
or:on
of n
a:on
al
cases
% acutely malnourished % severely malnourished
NUTRITION SECTOR
* NutriHon surveys conducted: 60 (Aug’11), 60 (Jan’12), 46 (Aug’12) and 42 (Jan’13). Median GAM levels (2001‐2011) of season used to esHmate numbers acutely malnourished where surveys are not conducted.
Deyr 2012 total caseloads of malnourished by region
The nutri?on situa?on is likely to remain the same across the country in the coming three months except for:
Sool Plateau: could deteriorate to Serious phase, consistent with worrying food security situaHon. and seasonal levels
Bakool, Hiran region, North Gedo regions are likely to be in CriHcal phase consistent with seasonal levels
Shabelle region are likely to be within median levels, in Serious phase
*Current situaHon esHmates inferred from Oct‐Dec 2012 nutriHon assessments findings; NutriHon situaHon outlook, Feb‐Apr 2013 inferred from current esHmates/median seasonal rates (2001‐2011), alongside with historical disease pa`erns and food security trends for February – April 2013 period)
August 2012 January 2013
Nutri:on Situa:on Es:mates, August 2012 & January 2013, and outlook, February‐April 2013
February‐April 2013 Outlook
NUTRITION SECTOR
41
INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF LIVELIHOODS
RURAL LIVELIHOODS
• Improved milk availability among most pastoral households for consumpHon and sales
• Significantly improved Terms of Trade between local quality goat and cereals due to low cereal prices and excepHonally high goat prices;
• Increased livestock holding among the poor in most livelihoods BUT sHll below the baseline levels.
• In most pastoral areas in the North poor households can meet food needs although some have small livelihood protecHon deficit, i.e. cannot meet all basic needs
• Food access is limited in Guban and parts of Coastal Deeh of North and Central due to successive poor rains leading to: o Below average to poor livestock condiHon o Limited livestock asset holding
Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Rice to Goat
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Kg
per H
ead
Central (Red Rice) NE(Red Rice) NW (Red Rice)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Kg
per H
ead
SorghumBelt (Red Sorghum) Juba Valley (White Maize)
Shabelle Valley(White Maize)
Average Sh/goats, Dhusamareb, Galgadud region, FSNAU, Dec. 2012
Poor Body Condition, Guban, Zeylac, FSNAU, Dec. 2012 Average Camel Body Condition, Garbahaarey, Gedo, Dec. 2012
RURAL LIVELIHOODS Deyr 2012/13 Photos
Good Cattle Good Body Condition, Hagar, Lower Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 2012
• Crop dependent poor households in the agropastoral areas of Lower Juba have about 1‐2 months supply of cereal stock; 5‐6 months in L. Shabelle and Bay; while the rest 3‐4 months;
• Labour wages of the farming communiHes increased in December 2012 compared to July 2012 and year ago (Dec’11) in most of southern agricultural areas;
• ToT daily labour wage/cereal is favorable and higher than in July 2012 and the 5‐years average (2007‐2011)
RURAL LIVELIHOODS Purchasing Power
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Dec‐12
Mar‐13
Jun‐13
Sep‐13
Dec‐13
Mar‐14
Jun‐14
Sep‐14
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
Sep‐16
Dec‐16
Kg per Daily Lab
our Wage
Month
Bardera (Red Sorghum 1 kg) Baidoa ( Red Sorghum 1 kg)
Huddur ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Beletweyne (White Sorghum 1kg)
Sorghum Belt-Trends in TOT Labour to Cereal
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Dec‐12
Mar‐13
Jun‐13
Sep‐13
Dec‐13
Mar‐14
Jun‐14
Sep‐14
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
Sep‐16
Dec‐16 Kg per Daily Lab
our Wage
Month
Jamame (White Maize 1kg)
Jilib (White Maize 1kg)
Qorioley (White Maize 1kg)
Jowhar (White Maize 1kg)
Shabelle & Juba Riverine‐TOT Labour to Cereal
RURAL LIVELIHOODS Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis
0.00
10,000.00
20,000.00
30,000.00
40,000.00
50,000.00
Baseline year Current year
Cas
h in
com
e (N
omin
al-0
00)S
oSH
food aid/safety nets self‐employment #REF! #REF! livestock product sales milk/meat Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec?on Deficit
0.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nom
inal‐000
) SoSH
food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales milk/meat Survival deficit Livelihoods protec?on deficit
0.00
10,000.00
20,000.00
30,000.00
40,000.00
50,000.00
60,000.00
70,000.00
Baseline year Current year
Cas
h In
com
e (N
omin
al-0
00)S
oSH
food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales
0.00
10,000.00
20,000.00
30,000.00
40,000.00
50,000.00
60,000.00
70,000.00
Baseline year Current year
Cas
h In
com
e (N
omin
al-0
00) S
oSH
food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales
Fig 2: Sool Plateau Outcome Analysis- Poor Households Non Cyclone Affected Areas
Fig 5: Dawo Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 6: Nugal Valley Outcome Analysis-Poor Households
Fig 4: Addun Outcome Analysis-Poor Households
0.00
10,000.00
20,000.00
30,000.00
40,000.00
50,000.00
60,000.00
70,000.00
Baseline year Current year
Cas
h In
com
e (N
omin
al-0
00)S
oSH
food aid/safety nets self‐employment
0.00
10,000.00
20,000.00
30,000.00
40,000.00
50,000.00
60,000.00
70,000.00
Baseline year Current year Cas
h In
com
e (N
omin
al-0
00) S
oSH
food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales
0.00
10,000.00
20,000.00
30,000.00
40,000.00
50,000.00
60,000.00
70,000.00
80,000.00
Baseline year Current year Cas
h In
com
e (N
omin
al-0
00)S
oSH
food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales milk/meat Survival Deficit
0.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
Baseline year Current year Cas
h In
com
e (N
omin
al-0
00)S
oSH
milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets
RURAL LIVELIHOODS Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis
Fig 7: Hawd Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households
Fig 5: Dawo Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 6: Nugal Valley Outcome Analysis-Poor Households
Fig 8:Northwest Agropastoral Outcome Analysis- Poor Households
0.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
6,000.00
7,000.00
Baseline year Current year Cas
h In
com
e (N
omin
al-0
00) S
oSH
milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets
0.00
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
14,000.00
Baseline year Current year Cas
h In
com
e (N
omin
al-0
00) S
oSH
milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec?on Deficit
0.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
6,000.00
7,000.00
Baseline year Current year Cas
h in
com
e (N
omin
al-0
00) S
oSH
milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec?on Deficit
Fig 10: Agropastoral low potential Outcome Analysis- Poor Households Fig 9: Agropastoral High potetnial Outcome Analysis-Poor Households
Fig 11: Bakol Agropastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households
RURAL LIVELIHOODS Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis
Fig 12: Togdher Agropastoral Outcome Analysis – Poor Household
0.00
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
14,000.00
16,000.00
18,000.00
Baseline year Current year
Cas
h In
com
e (N
omin
al-0
00) S
oSH
food aid/safety nets self‐employment #REF!
livestock product sales milk/meat Survival Deficit
Livelihoods Protec?on Deficit
RURAL LIVELIHOODS Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis
Fig 13: Southern Inland Pastoral Outcome Analysis- Poor Househlolds
URBAN LIVELIHOODS Food Consump:on
Food Consump:on Score (FCS): Improving food consumpHon trend in the North and Banadir (less 20% of people with poor FCS) since Gu 2012;
o Poor to borderline food consumpHon in most of the Women Dependent HHs (WDH);
Coping strategy index (CSI): Stable to decreasing from Gu 2012 in most regions but increased slightly in Banadir;
o Out of the ≤10% of households adopHng severe coping strategies WDH form the majority
Livelihood change: increased producHve assets from last Gu in both WD and MDH; no asset sales reported across the country; people are mostly employing insurance coping strategies
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120% North & Banaadir: Food Consump:on
acceptable borderline poor
URBAN LIVELIHOODS Contribu:ng Factors: Food Access and Availability
Food available in most of the urban markets (local producHon, imports and humanitarian assistance);
Food access: Food is mainly obtained through cash purchase followed by credit;
o ≥80% of the urban households in the North and Banadir have one income source, while 1‐3 sources in the South‐Central
o ToT (labour wage to cereal) is higher than 5Yr Avg (2007‐2011);
o ConHnued decline in the cost of the Minimum Basket in most regions (below Gu and Deyr 2012 levels)
Internally Displaced Persons in Se^lements (IDP) Food Security Outcomes
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
% of h
ouseho
lds
North & Banaadir: Poor Food Consump:on
High proportion of IDPs have poor food consumption; 34-58% in NW and 44-74% in the NE
Low asset diversity among the IDPs; mostly one asset type per household: either a wheelbarrow or a mobile phone or a radio or skilled work tools
Low diversity of income sources: mostly one income sources per household; exception is Baidoa (3 income sources - self-employment, casual labour and social support)
Internally Displaced Persons in Se^lements (IDP) IPC: Contribu:ng Factors
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
% fo
od expen
diture
IDP: Food Expenditure (%)
High food expenditure among the IDPs with limited ability to meet non‐food expenditures (78‐80% of expenditure)
Main sources of income: either of casual labour, self‐employment; pemy trade; skilled labour (North and Banaadir)
High dependency on loans for food in most of assessed IDPs – increased from July 2012
Cri?cal nutriHon situaHon in most IDP semlements assessed except Hargeisa, Garowe, Baidoa (Serious)
Current Food Security Phase Classifica:ons
Summary Results
IPC Classifica:on Rural, Urban & IDP popula:on in crisis (Current)
Region UNDP 2005
Total Population
UNDP 2005 Urban
Population
UNDP 2005 Rural
Population
Urban in Stressed
Rural in Stressed
Urban in Crisis Rural in Crisis Urban in
Emergency Rural in
Emergency
Total in Crisis and
Emergency as % of Total population
North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 7,000 45,000 0 12,000 0 0 4 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 22,000 48,000 32,000 4,000 0 0 5 Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 22,000 75,000 0 1,000 0 0 0 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 13,000 65,000 5,000 7,000 0 7,000 7 Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 5,000 37,000 0 6,000 0 0 4 Bari 367,638 179,633 188,005 16,000 56,000 14,000 0 0 0 4 Nugaal 145,341 54,749 90,592 6,000 25,000 3,000 2,000 0 1,000 4
Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 91,000 351,000 54,000 32,000 0 8,000 4 Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 13,000 63,000 2,000 11,000 0 24,000 11 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 22,000 67,000 0 13,000 0 25,000 12
Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 35,000 130,000 2,000 24,000 0 49,000 11 South 0 Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 28,000 89,000 0 12,000 0 4,000 5 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 95,831 419,070 30,000 117,000 0 5,000 0 46,000 10
Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 172,714 677,937 35,000 186,000 35,000 0 0 0 4
Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 12,000 96,000 12,000 13,000 0 0 8 Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 37,000 162,000 0 16,000 0 0 3 Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 24,000 84,000 0 0 0 0 0 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 54,739 184,138 12,000 58,000 12,000 8,000 0 0 8
Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 124,682 261,108 22,000 73,000 22,000 16,000 0 0 10
Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 200,000 865,000 81,000 70,000 0 50,000 6 Banadir 901,183 901,183 - 15,000 - 15,000 - 0 - 2 Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 341,000 1,346,000 152,000 126,000 0 107,000 5
Assessed and Con:ngency Popula:on in Crisis and Emergency Number affected % of Total popula:on Distribu:on of popula:ons in crisis
Assessed Urban populaHon in Crisis and Emergency 152,000 2 15%
Assessed Rural populaHon in Crisis and Emergency 233,000 3 23%
IDP in semlements* (out of UNHCR 1.1 million) to avoid double counHng 615,000 8 62%
EsHmated Rural, Urban and IDP populaHon in crisis 1,000,000 13 100%
IPC CLASSIFICATION Rural, Urban & IDP Popula:on in Crisis (Projected)
Region UNDP 2005
Total Population
UNDP 2005 Urban
Population
UNDP 2005 Rural
Population
Urban in Stressed
Rural in Stressed Urban in Crisis Rural in Crisis Urban in
Emergency Rural in
Emergency
Total in Crisis and
Emergency as % of Total population
North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 7,000 45,000 0 12,000 0 0 4 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 22,000 48,000 32,000 4,000 0 0 5 Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 22,000 75,000 0 1,000 0 0 0 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 13,000 65,000 5,000 7,000 0 7,000 7 Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 5,000 37,000 0 6,000 0 0 4 Bari 367,638 179,633 188,005 16,000 56,000 14,000 0 0 0 4 Nugaal 145,341 54,749 90,592 6,000 25,000 3,000 2,000 0 1,000 4
Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 91,000 351,000 54,000 32,000 0 8,000 4 Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 13,000 63,000 2,000 11,000 0 24,000 11 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 22,000 67,000 0 13,000 0 25,000 12
Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 35,000 130,000 2,000 24,000 0 49,000 11 South 0 Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 28,000 89,000 0 12,000 0 4,000 5 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 95,831 419,070 30,000 117,000 0 5,000 0 46,000 10
Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 172,714 677,937 35,000 212,000 35,000 21,000 0 0 7 Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 12,000 86,000 12,000 22,000 0 0 11 Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 37,000 146,000 0 31,000 0 0 5 Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 24,000 84,000 0 0 0 0 0 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 54,739 184,138 12,000 57,000 12,000 9,000 0 0 9
Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 124,682 261,108 22,000 69,000 22,000 20,000 0 0 11
Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 200,000 860,000 81,000 120,000 0 50,000 7 Banadir 901,183 901,183 - 15,000 - 15,000 - 0 - 2 Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 341,000 1,341,000 152,000 176,000 0 107,000 6
Assessed and Con:ngency Popula:on in Crisis and Emergency Number affected % of Total popula:on Distribu:on of popula:ons in crisis
Assessed Urban populaHon in Crisis and Emergency 152,000 2 14%
Assessed Rural populaHon in Crisis and Emergency 283,000 4 27%
IDP in semlements* (out of UNHCR 1.1million) to avoid double counHng 615,000 8 59%
EsHmated Rural, Urban and IDP populaHon in crisis 1,050,000 14 100%
IPC CLASSIFICATION Distribu:on of Popula:ons in Crisis by Livelihood
Projected
Current
Livelihood system Es:mated
Popula:on by Livelihood Zones
Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency
Popula:on in Crisis as% of Total
Agro‐Pastoral 1,987,062 615,000 115,000 0 115,000 41
Fishing 17,779 0 0 0 0 0
Pastoral 2,136,657 586,000 51,000 8,000 59,000 21
Riverine 366,683 140,000 10,000 0 10,000 4
DesHtute pastoral 98,906 0 0 99,000 99,000 35 Grand Total
4,607,086 1,341,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100
Livelihood system Es:mated
Popula:on by Livelihood Zones
Stressed Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency
Popula:on in Crisis as% of Total
Agro‐Pastoral 1,987,062 620,000 63,000 0 63,000 27
Fishing 17,779 0 0 0 0 0
Pastoral 2,136,657 586,000 53,000 7,000 60,000 26
Riverine 366,683 140,000 10,000 0 10,000 4
DesHtute pastoral 98,906 0 0 100,000 100,000 43 Grand Total 4,607,086 1,346,000 126,000 107,000 233,000 100
IPC CLASSIFICATION Distribu:on of Popula:ons in Crisis by Wealth Groups (Projected)
Rural Stressed Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency
Popula:on in Crisis as% of Total
Poor 1,130,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100
Middle 211,000 0 0 0 0
Be^er‐off 0 0 0 0 0
Grand Total 1,341,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100
Urban Stressed Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency
Popula:on in Crisis as% of Total
Poor 341,000 152,000 0 152,000 100
Middle 0 0 0 0 0
Be^er‐off 0 0 0 0 0
Grand Total 341,000 152,000 0 152,000 100
IPC CLASSIFICATION Progression of Populations in Crisis by Year (Projected)
Jan-Jun '09 Jul-Dec '09 Jan-Jun '10 Jul-Dec '10 Jan-Jun '11 Jul-Dec '11 Apr-Jun '12 Aug-Dec '12 Jan-Jun '13
increase/ decrease from last season
Urban 705,000 655,000 580,000 310,000 475,000 585,000 550,000 530,000 152,000 -71%
Rural 1,215,000 1,435,000 1,255,000 785,000 1,005,000 2,550,000 1,160,000 790,000 283,000 -64%
IDPs (UNHCR) 1,295,000 1,550,000 1,390,000 1,410,000 1,465,000 1,465,000 1,360,000 1,360,000 1,100,000 -19%
Adjusted IDP to avoid double counting in Rural IPC
850,000 850,000 850,000 850,000 910,000 910,000 800,000 800,000 615,000 23%
Total 2,770,000 2,940,000 2,685,000 1,945,000 2,390,000 4,045,000 2,510,000 2,120,000 1,050,000 -50%
IPC Map, Feb – Jun 2013 IPC Map, Feb 1st 2013 IPC Map, Aug ‐ Dec 2012
IPC CLASSIFICATION Progression of the Food Security Situa:on Aug 2012‐ Jun 2013
Key Messages
The numbers of popula:on in crisis (IPC Phase 3 and 4) in post Deyr 2012/13 reduced by over 50% from the post Gu 2012 (Feb‐Jun 2012) due to improved access and availability of food. In most areas poor food uHlisaHon (e.g. lack of safe water, feeding pracHces for children, etc.) remains a major limiHng factor of food security
In the projec:on period up to June 2013, 1.05 million people are es:mated in acute food insecurity IPC Phases 3 and 4; this indicates a slight deterioraHon from the current situaHon (Feb 1, 2013) of a total of 1.0 million people in crisis (IPC Phases 3 and 4) na:onwide.
1.3mln people are also es:mated in acute food insecurity IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), of which about 80% are in the South. Stressed phase (IPC Phase 2) implies that at least 20% of the populaHon in the analysed area can meet food needs but is not able to cover some essenHal non‐food needs and has reduced ability to invest in livelihoods
Majority of IDP semlements are in Emergency situaHon due to high morbidity and limited food access; high malnutriHon rates and elevated death rates in Alert to Cri?cal (5 IDP semlements, o/w 4 in the South‐Central) are evident in these semlements
A total of 215,000 (14.3% of 1.5m) children <5 are acutely malnourished, of which two‐thirds are in the South; Overall nutri?on situa?on is likely to remain unchanged across the country in the coming three months
Key Messages Assump:on for Projec:ons (Feb‐Jun 2013)
Gu rains are likely to be normal to below normal affecHng marginal rain‐fed maize cropping in southern agropastoral areas of the country.
Limited access to water for livestock is likely in parts of northern regions such as Sool Plateau and parts of Nugal Valley during Jilaal dry season (Jan‐Mar)
Food at household level (milk and cereal stocks) as well as seasonal farm job opportuniHes for poor farmers will be available in the projecHon period;
Cereal prices will follow a seasonal trend as a result of good Deyr harvest and anHcipated supplies through humanitarian assistance and imports (port and cross‐border)
Insecurity will persist (although reduced) in South‐Central causing disrupHons of food supply into the markets, limiHng humanitarian access and causing displacements
Food security classificaHon is likely to remain unchanged between now and June 2013; But current projecHon assumpHon will be reviewed in March‐April based on updated informaHon on climate performance; humanitarian intervenHons; security condiHons
Key messages Required Response
• Lifesaving responses to the populaHon in Emergency is a priority
• ProtecHng livelihoods and strengthening disaster risk reducHon and miHgaHon through: strengthen exisHng public services and community based resources and assets that serve to protect vulnerable populaHons from falling into crisis.
• Building resilience of vulnerable poor households and addressing underlying causes of high malnutriHon (lack of safe water and sanitaHon, caring/ feeding pracHces, etc.) to reduce the risks of food and nutriHon insecurity
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