Fuel Cells: Technology Update & Market Outlook · Fuel Cells: An industry overview 2011 saw over 100 MWe of global fuel cell capacity produced for the first time Asia leads the way

Fuel Cells: Technology Update & Market Outlook

John Murray

Delta Energy & Environment

COGEN Europe 18-19 April 2013

COGEN Europe Annual Conference 2013

Overview

Introduction to Delta-ee

Fuel Cells: An Industry Overview

Ene.Farm in Japan: A Summary

Fuel Cell mCHP Commercialisation in Europe


Delta Energy & Environment

Clients:

Energy companies

Manufacturers

Finance sector

Policy makers

What Delta-ee offer to clients:

Research Services

Multi-client Studies

Consultancy

Specialist Summits

Delta-ee provides:

Market insight & forecasts

Techno-economic analysis

Competitor analysis

Strategy & tactics

A consultancy and research provider specialising in

decentralised energy

Generation

Demand

Electric Vehicles

Electricity

Storage HEM

CHP

Photovoltaics

Energy

Efficiency

Smart

Demand

Heat

Pumps

Networks

Micro-CHP

Energy

Services

Fuel cell


Selected Delta-ee Clients

Europe

Energy Companies

BP LPG * British Gas * Calor Gas * DONG * EDF * EDF Energy

Edison * EDP * Endesa * Energy Networks Association * E.ON

ESB * GasTerra * Gas Natural Fenosa * Gasunie * GDF Suez

Iberdrola * Power NI * RWE * RWE npower * Scottish Power * SSE

SEDIGAS * SHV Energy * Statoil * Vattenfall

Manufacturers

Ariston Thermo Group * BDR Thermea * BEAMA * Bekaert

Bosch * BSRIA * Centrax * Ceres Power * Daikin * Cummins

Danfoss EADS * ENATEC * Efficient Home Energy * Ener-G

Energetix * GE * GE Jenbacher * Honeywell * Impco * Microgen

Energy * Mondragon * MWM * Philips * Sandvik * Schneider

Siemens * Topsoe Fuel Cells * Turbomach * Schneider Electric

Vaillant * Viessmann * Viking Development Group * Volkswagen

Finance Sector

Berenberg Bank * Credit Suisse * Deutsche Bank * J Leon & Co

KBC Peel Hunt * Modal Capital * Numis Securities * Zetra

International * Nomura * Redburn * Scottish Equitable Partners

Policy / NGOs

Business Council for Sustainable Energy * Carbon Trust * COGEN

Europe * CHPA * Energy Saving Trust * EBRD * ENA * European

Commission * Greenpeace * HHIC * International Energy Agency

Renewable Energy Association * OECD * Sustainable Development

Commission * WLPGA

Asia

Energy Companies

Osaka Gas * JX Nippon Oil and

Energy Corp

Manufacturers

CFCL * Daelim Industries * Honda

Hitachi Power Equipment Systems

NGK Spark Plug * Panasonic

Toshiba Corporation * Yanmar

Energy Systems * TOTO

Finance Sector

Itochu Corporation *

EU-China Energy & Environment

Program

Policy Makers

Advanced Cogeneration and

Energy Utilisation Centre Japan

(ACEJ) * CRIEPI * Japan Gas

Association (JGA)

North America

Energy Companies

BC Hydro * CEATI * Enmax * EPRI * Hydro

One Chevron * Conoco * Keyspan * Southern

California Edison

Manufacturers

Caterpillar * Cummins * Fuji Electric (US)

UTC Power * Versa Power Systems

GE Energy * Dresser-Rand

Finance Sector

Morgan Stanley

Policy / NGOs

Battelle * World Alliance for Decentralised

Energy COGEN São Paulo * Cogeneration

Association of California * Energy Producers

and Users Coalition EPRI Solutions * Natural

Resources Canada


Micro-CHP Service


A world-leading service analysing Micro-CHP developments in Europe, Asia and N. America

Fuel Cells: An industry overview

2011 saw over 100 MWe of global fuel cell capacity produced for the first time

Asia leads the way with micro-CHP fuel cell installations – The Ene.Farm scheme in Japan has

resulted in the installation of over 50,000 units since 2009, the largest of any fuel cell installation

programme in the world

Large stationary power fuel cells (> 5kWe to 400 kWe) have also seen considerable growth, in the

US and South Korea primarily, with a number of high-profile projects underway

Source: Fuel Cell Today, 2012


MW

e

Could fuel cells be the answer for

data centres?

Large, stable electricity demand

On-site generation crucial to provide back-up

power

Apple has installed 4.8 MW of fuel cells at their

flagship data centre in North Carolina and eBay

has trumped this with a 6.0 MW development to be

commissioned later this year

Fuel Cells are increasingly dominating global micro-CHP sales

1

2

4 Source: Delta-ee, 2012

Solid Oxide

Fuel Cell

launched in

Japan

4

ICE

dominates

1 PEM Fuel

Cell launched

in Japan

2 Stirling

engine

launched in

Europe

3

Global annual sales of micro-CHP (<6kW)

Solid Oxide FC

Stirling Engine

PEM FC

Internal

Combustion

Engine


Source: Delta Energy & Environment, 2012

Ene-Farm development in Japan: Fuel cell costs coming down

2005 - 09

Large-scale demonstration of technology

2009 - 15

Market creation period with support by subsidy

2015 - 20+

Shift to self-sustaining market, no subsidy


To date, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has invested over €300m in

subsidies


Growth rates required for FC mCHP ‘market success’

In Europe, Delta-ee research suggests ‘market

success’ by 2020 = 70,000 to 100,000 units

per year

In Japan, targets are for:

100,000 units / yr by 2015; 300,000 units / yr by

2020



3 growth scenarios for FC mCHP in Europe

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

An

nu

al

Sale

s (

000s)

Delta-eemedium growth(~35,000)

Delta-ee highgrowth(~70,000)

100k by 2020

150% pa (100k per year

benchmark)

134% pa (also similar

to IEA)

103% pa

1,000 units

by end 2015



Delta-ee view: It shall be extremely tough to achieve industry perception of ‘market

success’ by 2020. But with sufficient upfront investment, supportive policy frameworks

and improved economic stability, it could be possible to achieve 70,000 FC mCHP sales

by 2020.

When could we see commercialisation in Europe?

2013 2014 2015 2016/17+

2013 2014 2015 2016/17+

PEMFC

SOFC


Note: Timelines are based on company's own announcements and are liable to change

Summary

Fuel cells have seen a number of false dawns in Europe

Launch targets are repeatedly pushed back

Investor confidence has been tempered by fragmented policy

and the on-going economic instability

Can ene.field stimulate the industry?

Yes!


For further information:

E-mail: [email protected]

Telephone: +44 7515 020630

Website: www.delta-ee.com



Documents

Fuel Cells: Technology Update & Market Outlook · Fuel Cells: An industry overview 2011 saw over 100 MWe of global fuel cell capacity produced for the first time Asia leads the way