Future marketing and consuming ValuesBar-Ilan University, Israel
www.passig.com
GenerationsGenerations’’ ModelModel
Future Time FramesFuture Time Frames
Immediate range: 0-2
Short range: 2-5
Mid range: 5-30
Long range: 30-50
Very long range: 50-100
Life Cycles Life Cycles Forecasting the Rise and Fall of almost
AnythingForecasting the Rise and Fall of almost Anything
Modis, T. (1994) Life Cycles. The Futurist. Sept-Oct 1994. pp
20-25
Cycles MagazineCycles Magazine Foundation for the study of
CyclesFoundation for the study of Cycles
http://cyclesmagazine.org
2nd Curve: Seamless stitching
A w
ar en
es s
Basic Research
Press conference
Decline
Disappointment
Time1 2 4 6 8 10 11 12 20 22 25 30
1st Curve: Traditional cutting & stitching
WhatWhat’’s a generation for market analysis?s a generation for
market analysis?
•• For quite a time, For quite a time, humankind have struggled
humankind have struggled in defining in defining ““a generationa
generation””
•• In the course of history a In the course of history a variety of
models have variety of models have been developed to been developed
to describe a variety of describe a variety of intersections in
lifeintersections in life--cyclecycle
Family LineageFamily Lineage The Western model for describing the
median dispersal of generatThe Western model for describing the
median dispersal of generationsions
A snapshot of a living generation A snapshot of a living generation
relative to their children & parentsrelative to their children
& parents1st Gen
B irt
2nd Gen
3rd Gen
4th Gen
Greven, Philip J. (1970) Four Generations: Population, Land and
Family in Colonial Andover. MA.
Social LineageSocial Lineage CohortCohort –– dispersal according to
social roledispersal according to social role
•• TheThe cohortcohort concept assumes that lifeconcept assumes
that life--cycle consists of cycle consists of four stagesfour
stages in which we are to fulfill predefined social roles.in which
we are to fulfill predefined social roles.
1.1. EldersElders (66(66--87)87) Main role: Main role:
StewardshipStewardship (supervisors, thinkers, wisdom and resources
routers)(supervisors, thinkers, wisdom and resources routers)
2.2. Middle adultsMiddle adults ))4444--6565(( Main role:Main role:
LeadershipLeadership (Law makers, parents, teachers, managers) (Law
makers, parents, teachers, managers)
3.3. Rising adultsRising adults ) ) 2222--4343(( Main role:Main
role: ActivistsActivists (Workers, family raisers, institutes
servants, value (Workers, family raisers, institutes servants,
value inspectors)inspectors)
4.4. Youth Youth ) ) 00--2121(( Main role:Main role:
DependantsDependants (Maturing, students, assimilating values,
(Maturing, students, assimilating values, beware of dangers)beware
of dangers)
Four seasons of cohort generationsFour seasons of cohort
generations
The Silent GenThe Silent Gen
The Me GenThe Me Gen
The X GenThe X Gen
The Millennial GenThe Millennial Gen
Family values of the Family values of the
MillennialsMillennials
• The Me generation are raised in families that start to
dysfunction but still considered calm.
• The X generation are raised in dysfunctional families that don’t
support their children.
• The Millennials will be raised in families that value family
cells which protect and care immensely for their children.
• The Millennials will grow to be self-confident and will overturn
negative trends in violence, forbidden relationships, etc.
• Demographically, in industrial societies, they will be considered
as critical masses and will hold immense economic power.
www.millennialsrising.com
More educatedMore educated
Team workers, collaborators, ready to sacrificeTeam workers,
collaborators, ready to sacrifice
Tolerant to other minorities and ethnic groupsTolerant to other
minorities and ethnic groups
SelfSelf--confident who believe in future tech confident who
believe in future tech
Economic values characterizing the Economic values characterizing
the Millennial generationMillennial generation
Enhanced Future Time SpanEnhanced Future Time Span
Generators of innovative industriesGenerators of innovative
industries
Stress ecological values Stress ecological values
Personal and public investments in Personal and public investments
in environmental economyenvironmental economy
Develop new indices to measure Develop new indices to measure
environmental issuesenvironmental issues Tend to pick unusual
careers and professionsTend to pick unusual careers and
professions
MillennialsMillennials’’ nicknamesnicknames
Generation Next (Generation Next (NextersNexters) )
Future marketing valuesFuture marketing values
They tend to repair wrong doing and injusticeThey tend to repair
wrong doing and injustice
They are motivated by feelings of guiltThey are motivated by
feelings of guilt
They detest commercialismThey detest commercialism
They constantly Look for opportunities to hurt big They constantly
Look for opportunities to hurt big corporationscorporations
They are fond of religion, therefore would They are fond of
religion, therefore would look or spiritual productslook or
spiritual products
They tend to be hypochondriacs, therefore They tend to be
hypochondriacs, therefore would look for enhanced hygienic
productswould look for enhanced hygienic products
Churning dataChurning data
Deutsche Bank data regarding the rate of churning 3rd generation
cellular phones (2001-2007)
ContactContact
Dr. David Passig, Futurist, Bar Ilan U. Head Grad Program of Info
& Communication Tech
www.passig.com
[email protected]
Outline
Life Cycles Forecasting the Rise and Fall of almost Anything
Cycles MagazineFoundation for the study of Cycles
S - Model for Forecasting Technologies
What’s a generation for market analysis?
Family Lineage The Western model for describing the median
dispersal of generations
Social Lineage Cohort – dispersal according to social role
Four seasons of cohort generations
Family values of the Millennials
Millennials’ personal characteristics
Millennials’ nicknames