FUTURREGUsing futures tools in regional development projects

2nd Steering Committee meeting January 24, 2005

URENIO, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

FUTURREG

Futures tools report

« Visionary management »

Visionary management consists in bringing a group of actors - involved in a territory (defined or to be defined), a business or an organisation, etc. - to project their ideas into the long-term future in order to envisage the goals and values that form a common vision of their future on behalf of the general interest, and to do this in a collective and shared dynamics.

A vision is a shared picture of the desired future.The vision is made up of the ultimate aims which could show the long-term direction that should guide the common strategy of the decision makers, the stakeholders and the citizens

Identificationand diagnosis

Long term issues

Ultimate aims and vision

Strategy

Strategic actions

1 5432

Visionary management is actually part of a strategic foresight process structured

in five main phases

The first three phases formulate the vision, followed by the two final phases of the strategy

Broad and complete information base

Expressing the mental representations, confronting with the realities,

sharing of the diagnosis

Foresight workshops, SWOT analysis, benchmarking, etc.

Sources of change, internal and external trends and impacts in terms of issues

Global driving forces,

main issues

role and power of actors against issues

Futures workshops, computer-based tools (MICMAC), control matrix

Normative phase of defining a future vision

Desirable futures,

sharing of the vision

Matrices comparing possible and desirable futures

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Ulti

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onScope Objectives Methods

SWOT Analysis

Assessment dataBenchmarking

ForesightWorkshops

Providing Knowledge base

Identify the common ground

Express the mental representations

Confrontation with the realities

Sharing of the diagnosis

Identification and diagnosisIdentification and diagnosis

Trends IssuesGearing

LIPSOR’sMICMAC Software

Importance vsControl Matrix

Setting out the long-term issuesSetting out the long-term issues

Exploring the possible futures

Gearing global with local

Grading the long term issues

ExternalTrends

InternalTrends

Global

Local

Past Future

ISSUES

FabienneGoux-BaudimentNamur, 01.06.18

Movement

TrendsTrendsIssuesIssuesGearinGearingg

Strong

Weak

Weak Strong

Importanceof the changes/ inertias

Currentcontrol

Michel GodetCreating Futures2001, p. 95.

ImportancImportanceevs Controlvs ControlMatrixMatrix

ForesightWorkshops

Possibles vs Desirables Matrix

Building the Aims and the Building the Aims and the Common VisionCommon Vision

Formulating the desirable futures

Ultimate Aims

Sharing of the vision

THE ULTIMATE AIMS = THE VISION

THE ISSUES

How to bridge the present with desired How to bridge the present with desired future ?future ?

2020 20152010

DIAGNOSISGraphisme Nicolas George

Complementarity/synergy with other tools

►Two key facets of the foresight approach :– the exploratory foresight, in order to elucidate the evolutionary trends and deduce the underlying issues in terms of threats or opportunities;– the normative foresight in order to form visions of desirable futures and develop collective strategies.

►Scenarios approach is a tool that can be integrated in the proposed approach to illustrate the spectrum of possible futures before building the chosen future defined by the vision.

Three case studies/applications

1. Wallonia 20202. Charleroi 2020

3. Vision 2020 of the Large Region

Wallonia 2020 :A Citizen-based Foresight Exercise

Wallonia 2020

Context - Included in a long term process : Wallonia to the Future (since 1987)- Paralell to the « Contrat d’Avenir » (Future Contract) of the walloon

governement

Initiative :- The « popular education movement » in Wallonia initiated the

process of « Wallonia to the Future » supported by the government; it has been coordinated by The Destree Institute.

Objectives :- To foster the collective and partcipative mobilisation of civil society of

Wallonia to the preparation of a common strategic project;- To instil a foresight culture among the participants;- To enrol the process in the framework of good regional governance;- To coordinate this exercise with other ongoing works.

Wallonia to the FutureTowards a new paradigm

1987

Wallonia to the FutureThe Challenge of Education

1991

Wallonia to the FutureWhat are the strategies for

employment?1995

Wallonia to the FutureLeaving the 20th Century: Evaluation,

innovation, Foresight1998

EVALUATION

FORESIGHT

1999

2000

2000

IWEPS Wallonia 2020

2003

Wallonia to the Future(1987-2004)

1999

The Destree Institute

Foresight Unit

25meetings

to produceand

validate

12strategicoptions

and 3 ultimate

aims

75meetings to produce

and validate

4issues

To define the issues

7 meetingsto produce

and validate

15Innovative

actions

To define the desirable and

possible futures

To propose strategic

axis

To make commonrecommendations

November 2001 October 2003

Closing ConferenceOctober 25,

2003 in Namur

What was the duration of the exercise ? : 23 months

To call foactors

Wallonia 2020

Involvement : a citizenship experience - A partnership foresight : 50 associated organizations (universities, political

parties, professionnal and trade organizations, administrations, NGO’s, etc);

- A citizen foresight : 400 volunteers willing to participate in the initiative;- A foresight exercise that associate young people : organization of working

days in schools (secundary general, technical and professional schools);- The Scientific Council of Wallonia to the Future.

Results : Issues, strategics options, innovative actions, implementation of a foresight regional college

Lessons / difficulties : - Calibration of the work- A citizen-based exercise? - Loss of on-line contents- Hard to project into the future- Lack of decision-makers participation during the whole process

Charleroi 2020

Charleroi 2020

Context To update previous initiatives :- 1991 : Charleroi city project- 1994 : Metropolitan Charleroi city charter 21

Initiative :- The city of Charleroi

Objectives :- To enable all the residents to help build a vision of their region's

development and design a collective strategy to achieve this desired future;

- Civil society participants and citizens as well were encouraged to mobilise in order to define what Charleroi and its Urban Community wished to become and install the conditions for collective well-being by the 2020 horizon.

Charleroi 2020

Involvement : a citizenship experience - Over 1,100 people participated in the exercise;- Citizens, neighbourhood representatives, outside experts, heads of

businesses and associations, retailers, teachers, civil servants and politicians.

Results : Common vision (ultimate aims), strategic lines, innovative cross-sectoral actions

Lessons / difficulties : - A methodological problem. It was found hard to move beyond a strictly

thematic approach and to integrate the long-term variable by the participants.

- The solution proposed was to make room for a foresight phase that had not been planned initially so as to identify the long-term issues and a common vision prior to defining a territorial strategy.

The phases of Charleroi 2020

Phase 1: Shared diagnosis based onthe evaluation of Charleroi Métropole 21

Phase 2: Long-term issuesEvolution of environment now to 2020

FORESIGHT

Phase 4: Strategic lines forCharleroi's development from 2004

STRATEGY

Phase 3: Common visionUltimate aims for the 2020 horizon

Phase 5: Formulation, hierarchisation, &implementation of innovative actions

Vision 2020 of the Large Region

Vision 2020 : Large Region

Context :- A long tradition of transborder cooperation;- The political summits of the Large Region

Initiative :- The 5th political summit of the Large Region in 2001 - A proposal to develop a common perspective for further

development and a common strategic vision.

Objectives :- To restructure the strategic orientation of cross-border

co-operation in the Large Region over the next 20 years

Vision 2020 : Large Region

Involvement : a focus on decision makers- The vision was developed by a limited group of decision makers

gathered in a Political Commission under the chairmanship of the former European Commission President Jacques Santer

Results : Common vision of the future, a new potential framework to develop the Large Region co-operation zone.

Lessons / difficulties : - Need to involve all the Large Region stakeholders to take into

account the expectations and concrete needs of the citizens who were not part of the exercise;

- A gap was observed between Vision 2020's ambitions and the means foreseen for its actual implementation, as indicated in the declaration of the 7th Summit.

Regional appraisal : « Draft list of indiactors »

1. Regional instruments/Foresight competences- Number of regional instruments- Organizations dealing with foresight- Fields of intervention2. Use/application of foresight :- Number of exercises- Topics of application- Profiles offoresight initiators, stakeholders;- Products of foresight exercises- Follow-up, and sustainability of foresight approaches- Degree of exchange of experiences within the region and with other regions

Potential topics for applications in/with Wallonia region

1. Option : both application within an interregional frameworkof cooperation;2. Argument : attractiveness of learning from other regions and together with them, limited working groups composed of the project’s teams and key stakeholders3. Potential topics of cooperation :

- Structural funds : conception and follow-up of programmes

- Competitive poles- Rural foresight- Society change management, regional values

Networks linked with FUTURREG goals (1)

Mutual Learing Plateform http://www.innovating-regions.org

- A joint initiative of the EC led by DG Enterprise and supported by DG RTD, DG REGIO and the Committee of the Regions ;

- It concentrates on three core topics: regional foresight, regional benchmarking and regional profiles in research and innovation ;

- Regional foresight workshop: - On the basis of the Research DG action ‘Blueprints for Foresight Action in the Regions’. - Objective : update and complement existing foresight tools and disseminate them to regional actors.

The EFMN : the european foresight monitoring network (www.efmn.info)

-It is financed by the EC DGR - initiatives intended to provide a Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform ;

- A network of policy professionals, foresight experts and practitioners as well as analysts of Science, Technology and Innovation related issues ;

- It develops foresight related content, analyzed in an annual workshop and disseminated via a website and mailing list (foresight briefs, list of events…).

Networks linked with FUTURREG goals (2)

For-Learn http://forlearn.jrc.es/index.htm

- Under FP 6 and supported by the EC (DG-RTD)

- A part of the European Foresight knowledge sharing plateform (KSP)

- Aim to support the mutual learnin process via : - An online foresight guide

- Workshops- ….

Networks linked with FUTURREG goals (3)

Interregional up-skilling workshop (1)

1. Objective : to help develop champions within organisations responsible for regional development;

2. Beneficiaries : ideally champions and stakeholders of Futurreg applications;

3. Inputs- Futures toolkit based on futures tools reports and

regional appraisals);- Testing phase of the toolkit- Selected applications (regional and interregional ones)

4. TrainersFuturreg teams + external experts (targeted inputs in relation with case application focus/needs

Interregional up-skilling workshop (2)

5. Venue : Brussels6. Date : by mid of June 20057. Structure :

- presentation of the Futurreg initiative and its added value for regional participants; some words on the toolkit;- focus on key questions/issues on foresight exercises’ development raised by the toolkit and illustrations coming from the tools reports and external experts;- working session with the participants; presentation of their concerns, expectations from the Futurreg team,

etc.

Implementation procedure to build a vision

Main source : Blueprints for ForesightActions in the Regions initiative

Questions to be discussed

How to build it for the toolkit?

- General aspects common for all the tools?- Specificities linked to some tools?