FY 2015 & 2016 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts

Initial FY 2016 Forecasts Exports = $138.5 billion Imports = $122.5 billion Surplus = $16.0 billion

Changes Since May in 2015 ForecastExports $1.0 billion to $139.5 billionImports $1.5 billion to $115.5 billionSurplus $0.5 billion to $24 billion

Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS

'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 12 13 14 15(f)

16(f)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Bil

lion

$

16

Exports

Imports

Trade Surplus

Records

138.5

152.3

109.2115.5

24

43.1

Lower Bulk Export Prices and Strong Dollar Impact Exports

139.5

122.5

U.S. Agricultural Trade

Grains, Oilseeds & Cotton

Grain and Feed $800 million - higher feed exports, especially distiller’s dried grains to China

Oilseeds $100 million - strong exports of soybeans

Cotton $400 million - strong end-of-season shipments due to reduced competition

Livestock & Horticultural Products

Livestock & Products $1.5 billion - lower broiler prices, weak beef demand and lower U.S. dairy exports and prices

Horticultural Products $500 million – weaker fresh fruit and vegetable exports to certain markets

Exports forecast down $1 billion to $139.5 billion

FY 2015 Exports Revisions (Aug. vs. May)

Grains and Feeds Oilseeds Cotton Livestock Products

Horticultural Products

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3Initial FY 2016 Forecast vs. Revised FY 2015

Bill

ion

Do

llars

+$1.1 Billion +$600 Million

+$2.0 Billion

-$4.4 Billion

-$400 Million

FY 2016 Forecasts

U.S. Major Bulk Export Volume Forecast to Expand AgainBut Value Falls on Lower Prices

FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 (e) FY 2016 (f)0

50

100

150

0

20

40

60

80

U.S. Major Bulk Export Volume and Value

U.S

. Bul

k Ex

port

Vol

ume

(Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons)

U.S

. Bul

k Ex

port

Val

ue ($

Bill

ion)

Bulk Value

Bulk Volume

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (e) 2016 (f)0

20

40

60

80

100

Overall Forecast down $1.0 Billion from FY 2015

Bulk High Value

Bill

ion

$

$ 45

.1 B

illio

n

$ 42

.7 B

illio

n

$ 94

.4 B

illio

n

$95.

8 B

illio

n

High Value Exports to Rise while Bulk Falls

+$200 mil

-$2.0 bil +$200 mil

+$300 mil

-$100 mil

FY 2016 Export Changes by Market

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (e)

2016 (f)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30U.S. Agricultural Exports to Canada, China, & Mexico

Bill

ion

Dol

lars

China

Mexico

Canada

U.S. Exports to China Forecast to Fall and for 1st Time Since 2010, Canada to Return as Largest Export Market

*Includes Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, & Barley

Imports Forecast at a Record $122.5 Billion

2015 (e) 2016 (f)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Livestock and Dairy Products Grains, Feed, & OilseedsHorticultural Products Sugar and TropicalOther

Billi

on $

24 27.2

19.4

20.6 19.7

54.5 50.5

18.3

Initial FY 2016 Projection: $32.4 Billion Revised FY 2015 Forecast: $31.3 Billion

$800 Million

Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

2016Key DevelopmentsWheat is primary driver of higher forecast-volume up, more than offsetting lower unit values.Corn up slightly despite lower unit valuesSorghum, Feeds & Fodders mostly unchanged, despite higher Chinese purchases

Wild CardsChina’s policy uncertainty and potential impact on coarse grains trade

2015Key DevelopmentsFeeds & Fodders sharply higher on Chinese purchases (DDGS) '0

4'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15f

16f

13

17

21

25

29

33

37

41Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug 15 Forecast

Aug 15 Projection

Initial FY 2016 Projection $26.7 Billion Revised FY 2015 Forecast: $31.1 Billion

$100 Million

Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

2016Key Developments Soybean and soybean meal volumes decline significantly. Soybean value declines on lower unit prices and smaller volume. Soybean product values fall with lower bean prices and reduced trade volume.

Wild Cards China soybean demand Exchange rates Argentine policy U.S. production prospects

2015Key Developments Soybean volume raised

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 14 15f

16f

9

14

19

24

29

34

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug 15 Forecast

Aug 15 Projection

Initial FY 2016 Projection: $3.7 BillionRevised FY 2015 Forecast: $4.1 Billion

$400 Million

Export Outlook for Cotton

2016Key Developments Sharply lower U.S. productionTightening U.S. stocks support unit valueWild Cards India support program Cotton yarn demand in ChinaSales from China State Reserve

2015Key Developments Weak sales from government held stocks support world prices.Southern Hemisphere 2015 crops slower to market than expected

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 15f

16f

0

2

4

6

8

10

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug 15 Forecast

Aug 15 Projection

Initial FY 2016 Projection: $30.4 BillionRevised FY 2015 Forecast: $29.8 Billion

$1.5 Billion

Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry

2016Key Developments Pork up as higher volumes more than offset lower unit values Beef unchanged as slightly higher volumes offset lower unit values Poultry down as lower unit values more than offset higher volumes for some products

Wild Cards Ongoing SPS trade issues

2015Key Developments Beef lowered on declining volumes, pork revised higher on increased volumes Poultry reduced on lower broiler meat prices; tighter turkey and egg supplies '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

f14 15f16f

10

15

20

25

30

35

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug 15 Forecast

Aug 15 Projection

Initial FY 2016 Projection: $36.5 BillionRevised FY 2015 Forecast: $34.5 Billion

$500 Million

Export Outlook for Horticulture Products

2016Key Developments Strong exports to Canada, Europe and China Tree nut exports higher due to strong demand in China and Europe for almonds, pistachios and walnuts

Wild Card China’s continued growth, particularly for tree nuts, fresh fruit and wine

2015Key Developments Weak fresh fruit and vegetable exports to Canada and Japan Reduced processed fruit and vegetable exports to Japan and Europe

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f

16f

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug 15 Forecast

Aug 15 Projection