FY12 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee January 9 , 2012

FY12 Budget and Caseload Update

Fiscal CommitteeJanuary 9, 2012

FY12 Caseload Overview Income Eligible: The Income Eligible account full year forecast is projecting a surplus

of $1.8M. Caseload continues to decrease with access closed driving the change in the projections. Voucher access remains closed; savings is offset by Contract/Flex Spending. Additional savings may continue if the FY12 late billing trend continues.

DTA-Related Caseload: The forecasted surplus has decreased from $3.4M to $3.2M. The change in the projected surplus is driven by a 3% increase in caseload. Two percent of the three percent increase is driven by October actual caseload reported this month increasing by 325. The balance of the year spending projections include a 2 year historical average which anticipates decreases to caseload in December, May, and June. It includes approximately $2M for the DTA policy change for parent work hours for 6-8 year olds. (The anticipated full year cost of this is $4M.) DTA anticipated the policy would be fully implemented by November but impact to spending may not occur until January 2012. FY11 caseload on average was 16,377 children; EEC expended $133.7M in FY11.

Supportive: After processing five months of actual expenditures, a surplus of $1.1M is projected. Caseload forecasted trends are based on a 3 year average historical trend. Last month’s caseload projection anticipated a 4.7% decrease. Caseload increased 1.3% over last month, which reflects a swing of 6%. Ongoing discussions with DCF indicate an effort to fill open slots. This increase may be the result of the discussions; the increase decreases the surplus.

Late Billing: Part of EEC’s monthly projections is to include late billing. Previous months actuals are updated each month, future forecasted months incorporate a projection for late billing using historical trends.

- Fiscal Year 2012 late billing payments to date is approximately $2.7M. - Fiscal Year 2011for the same time period (July 2010 thru Nov. 2010) was $5.67M. - The total FY11 late billing accumulated total was $12.2M. If the late billing trend for FY12 continues, the realized savings will support the projected surplus. 2

FY12 Caseload Overview SummaryAs of December 2011

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FY2012 Caseload Spending FY2012 Budget Forecast

Variance Forecast vs.

Budget Income Eligible Contract/Flex 124,061,866$ 126,911,233$ (2,849,367)$ Voucher 99,809,111$ 95,137,277$ 4,671,834$ Grants 9,026,963$ 9,019,276$ 7,687$

232,897,940$ 231,067,785$ 1,830,155$ DTA Voucher 132,458,313$ 129,226,447$ 3,231,866$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,848,576$ 75,224,589$ 1,623,987$ Voucher -$ 497,449$ (497,449)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,448,576$ 76,322,038$ 1,126,538$ Total 442,804,829$ 436,616,271$ 6,188,558$

FY12 Caseload Actual/Forecast Overview

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Nov-11 FY2012 Budget FY2012 Forecast Variance Forecast vs.

Budget Income Eligible $ 232,897,940 $ 231,067,785 $ 1,830,155 DTA $ 132,458,313 $ 129,226,447 $ 3,231,866 Supportive $ 77,448,576 $ 76,322,038 $ 1,126,538

Total $ 442,804,829 $ 436,616,271 $ 6,188,558

Oct-11 Income Eligible $ 232,897,940 $ 233,859,298 $ (961,358) DTA $ 132,458,313 $ 129,037,442 $ 3,420,871 Supportive $ 77,448,576 $ 73,650,726 $ 3,797,850

Total $ 442,804,829 $ 436,547,466 $ 6,257,363

Sep-11 Income Eligible $ 232,897,940 $ 234,391,943 $ (1,494,003) DTA $ 132,458,313 $ 128,437,115 $ 4,021,198 Supportive $ 77,448,576 $ 76,442,294 $ 1,006,282

Total $ 442,804,829 $ 439,271,352 $ 3,533,477

Aug-11 Income Eligible $ 232,897,940 $ 237,850,204 $ (4,952,264) DTA $ 132,458,313 $ 128,192,814 $ 4,265,499 Supportive $ 77,448,576 $ 74,324,043 $ 3,124,533

Total $ 442,804,829 $ 440,367,061 $ 2,437,768

Jul-11 Income Eligible $ 232,897,940 $ 236,467,188 $ (3,569,248) DTA $ 132,458,313 $ 119,693,634 $ 12,764,679 Supportive $ 77,448,576 $ 75,252,590 $ 2,195,986

Total $ 442,804,829 $ 431,413,412 $ 11,391,417

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FY 2012 Income Eligible(3000-4060)

Forecast for January 2012

MonthCaseload Budget

Actual Caseload Variance

Spending P lan P rojection

Sept. Spending P lan/ Forecast

YTD Forecast Change

Dec , 2011 Actual/Forecast

Expenditures

YTD Variance (Original

Spending P lan)

Jun-11 35,124 35,388 N/A

Jul-11 34,172 33,840 (332) 19,605,263$ 19,605,263$ (0)$ 19,589,825$ 15,438$

Aug-11 34,650 33,500 (1,150) 21,710,402$ 20,960,402$ 750,000$ 20,626,850$ 1,098,990$

Sep-11 33,317 33,032 (285) 19,038,544$ 19,297,252$ 491,292$ 17,552,463$ 2,585,071$

Oct-11 33,145 31,155 (1,990) 18,109,837$ 18,218,215$ 382,914$ 16,859,347$ 3,835,562$

Nov-11 33,183 30,546 (2,637) 18,988,207$ 19,080,987$ 290,135$ 17,623,417$ 5,200,352$

Dec-11 33,249 0 19,032,445$ 19,080,987$ 241,592$ 18,496,386$ 5,736,411$

Jan-12 33,247 0 19,049,544$ 19,080,987$ 210,149$ 18,712,579$ 6,073,375$

Feb-12 33,574 0 18,409,311$ 18,218,215$ 401,245$ 18,569,681$ 5,913,006$

Mar-12 33,212 0 19,104,901$ 18,894,866$ 611,281$ 18,769,461$ 6,248,446$

Apr-12 32,777 0 18,027,323$ 17,866,974$ 771,629$ 18,214,333$ 6,061,436$

May-12 31,887 0 19,614,583$ 19,338,189$ 1,048,023$ 19,032,645$ 6,643,373$

Jun-12 30,410 0 16,803,604$ 18,141,442$ (289,814)$ 18,001,523$ 5,445,455$

GRANTS 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ (289,814)$ 9,019,276$ 5,445,455$

232,897,940 232,897,940 232,897,940

(3,615,301) (3,905,114) 1,830,155

- Yellow: FY11 Actual Expenditures

- Blue: FY12 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures - Green: FY12 Spending Plan/ Forecast Expenditures

* J uly and August budget includes $1.0M for ARRA expenditures to be paid by FY12 IE appropriation for both vouchers and contracts.

* Spending Plan Projection is maximum obligation, flex , teen and homeless contracts.

* Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast was prepared and may include late billing.

* Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. Please note a child could receive multiple services.

* Caseload changes for a prior reporting month is driven by late billing. ARRA flex included in J uly and August.

* Budgeted caseload assumes access is closed (Vouchers) and terminations will be consistent with historical trend.

* Caseload changes for a prior reporting month are driven by late billing.

Surplus/Deficiency

FY12 Appropriation

Figures in these columns will never change.

Data source: Data extract 12/23/2011

This report tracks unbilled services for non-terminated children based on service month (multiple services may be counted per month per child). Terminated cases are reported separately and are not included in this report (effective FY12 reporting). The report has a two month lag. For example unbilled billing report with the service month of September 2011 represents the number of children EEC has not been billed for since July 2011.

FY12 Voucher Late Billing

There are 7,982 billing records ($2.44M) associated with late billing for the billing months August for July services September for August services October for September services November for October services

There are 1,682 providers who have submitted late billing for FY12 related expenditures. Four hundred and one providers have billed late for more than one funding stream.

Of the 7,982 billing records, 5,858 are first time billed. The first time billed indicator captures when a child is

billed for the first time relative to their current placement. The billing records total $2.45M in expenses.

The balance (2,124) of the billing records represents a net dollar impact of approximately $-7.5K for cumulative billing adjustments from July.

Of the 2,124 billing records that are not related to first time billing, 889 of them are over one month late, 530 are two months late, 496 are three months late and 209 are four months late.

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TotalFunding Source Billing Records Dollars ProvidersARRA 70 $29,458 41 DSS 23 $7,132 7 DTA 3,292 $1,156,565 956 Income Eligible 4,597 $1,255,319 1,094 Grand Total 7,982 $2,448,475 2,098

FY12 Voucher Late Billing

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The following chart provides a dollar breakdown by funding stream, service date, and billing month. DTA and Income Eligible each make up 45%-54% of the total dollars each month which, when combined, represents 96% to 99% of the total late billing.

Billing Date

Service Date 8/1/2011 9/1/2011 10/1/2011 11/1/2011 Grand Total

ARRA 7/1/2011 $ 14,023 $ 112 $ 985 $ 15,120

8/1/2011 $ 9,125 $ 3,641 $ 700 $ 13,467

9/1/2011 $ 760 $ 111 $ 871

ARRA Total $ 14,023 $ 9,237 $ 5,387 $ 811 $ 29,458

DSS 7/1/2011 $ 3,893 $ (77) $ 3,817

8/1/2011 $ 360 $ 360

9/1/2011 $ 1,745 $ 1,745

10/1/2011 $ 1,211 $ 1,211

DSS Total $ 3,893 $ 2,028 $ 1,211 $ 7,132

DTA 7/1/2011 $ 187,181 $ 11,648 $ 5,779 $ 2,569 $ 207,178

8/1/2011 $ 395,991 $ 42,546 $ 8,450 $ 446,986

9/1/2011 $ 328,079 $ 25,788 $ 353,867

10/1/2011 $ 148,535 $ 148,535

DTA Total $ 187,181 $ 407,639 $ 376,404 $ 185,341 $ 1,156,565

Income Eligible 7/1/2011 $ 208,966 $ 35,075 $ 17,590 $ 2,770 $ 264,401

8/1/2011 $ 440,823 $ 53,188 $ 10,946 $ 504,957

9/1/2011 $ 342,389 $ 16,268 $ 358,657

10/1/2011 $ 127,304 $ 127,304

Income Eligible Total $ 208,966 $ 475,899 $ 413,167 $ 157,287 $ 1,255,319

Grand Total $ 414,064 $ 892,774 $ 796,986 $ 344,651 $ 2,448,475

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Data source: Data extract 12/23/2011

This report tracks unbilled services for non-terminated children based on service month (multiple services may be counted per month per child). Terminated cases are reported separately and are not included in this report (effective FY12 reporting). The report has a two month lag. For example unbilled billing report with the service month of September 2011 represents the number of children EEC has not been billed for since July 2011.

FY12 Contract Late Billing

There are 968 billing records ($265K) associated with late billing for billing months August for July services September for August services October for September services November for October services

There are 323 Contract providers who have submitted late billing.

Of the 968 billing records, 379 are first time billed. The first time billed indicator captures when a child is being billed for the first time relative to their current placement. These billing records make up the 81%, $215.3K in expenses. The balance of the billing records (589) represent a dollar impact of approximately $49.7K.

Of the 589 that are not related to first time billing, 161 of the billing records are one month late, 185 are two months, 161 are three months late and 82 are four months late. Of the first time billed records (379), 105 were billed late by one month, 153 by two months, 72 by three months and 49 by four months.

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Total

Funding Source Billing Records Dollars ProvidersHOME 34 $ 10,901 20IE 717 $ 174,107 241SUP 181 $ 46,427 84TEEN 36 $ 33,573 16Grand Total 968 $265,008 361

FY12 Contract Late Billing

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The following chart provides a dollar breakdown for contract late billing by funding stream, service and billing month.

Billing Date Service Date 8/1/2011 9/1/2011 10/1/2011 11/1/2011 Grand TotalHOME 7/1/2011 $ 294 $ 1,368 $ 1,662 8/1/2011 $ 830 $ 1,498 $ 2,328 9/1/2011 $ 3,696 $ 1,370 $ 5,066 10/1/2011 $ 1,845 $ 1,845 HOME Total $ 294 $ 830 $ 6,561 $ 3,215 $ 10,901 IE 7/1/2011 $ 24,488 $ 6,289 $ 2,573 $ 673 $ 34,023 8/1/2011 $ 32,383 $ 8,253 $ 692 $ 41,328 9/1/2011 $ 46,613 $ 10,822 $ 57,435 10/1/2011 $ 41,321 $ 41,321 IE Total $ 24,488 $ 38,672 $ 57,439 $ 53,507 $ 174,107 SUP 7/1/2011 $ 7,790 $ 2,284 $ 1,753 $ 22 $ 11,849 8/1/2011 $ 14,635 $ 4,451 $ (231) $ 18,855 9/1/2011 $ 19,859 $ (3,202) $ 16,657 10/1/2011 $ (934) $ (934)SUP Total $ 7,790 $ 16,919 $ 26,063 $ (4,345) $ 46,427 TEEN 7/1/2011 $ 1,394 $ 1,394 8/1/2011 $ 1,337 $ 60 $ 1,396 9/1/2011 $ 30,867 $ 30,867 10/1/2011 $ (85) $ (85)TEEN Total $ 1,394 $ 1,337 $ 30,927 $ (85) $ 33,573 Grand Total $ 33,967 $ 57,759 $ 120,991 $ 52,292 $ 265,008

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YTD Forecast Change


Expenditures YTD Variance

Jun-11 16,399 16,539 N/A

Jul-11 16,318 15,763 (555) 10,956,346$ 10,956,346$ -$ 10,133,660$ 822,686$

Aug-11 16,378 15,796 (582) 11,026,254$ 9,901,398$ 1,124,857$ 10,977,272$ 871,668$

Sep-11 16,659 16,344 (315) 11,193,881$ 10,117,931$ 2,200,807$ 9,967,448$ 2,098,101$

Oct-11 16,387 16,184 (203) 11,001,251$ 9,974,208$ 3,227,850$ 10,135,430$ 2,963,922$

Nov-11 16,537 16,187 (350) 11,114,522$ 10,038,572$ 4,303,800$ 10,849,682$ 3,228,762$

Dec-11 15,948 10,730,752$ 9,654,802$ 5,379,750$ 10,571,556$ 3,387,959$

Jan-12 16,211 10,902,057$ 9,826,107$ 6,455,701$ 11,135,201$ 3,154,816$

Feb-12 16,602 11,141,372$ 10,114,329$ 7,482,744$ 10,845,679$ 3,450,509$

Mar-12 16,736 11,244,010$ 10,168,060$ 8,558,694$ 11,457,265$ 3,237,255$

Apr-12 16,710 11,211,760$ 10,184,717$ 9,585,737$ 10,880,061$ 3,568,954$

May-12 16,511 11,113,157$ 9,988,301$ 10,710,594$ 11,727,191$ 2,954,920$

Jun-12 16,113 10,822,947$ 9,795,904$ 11,737,636$ 10,546,000$ 3,231,866$

TOTAL 132,458,314$ 120,720,677$ 129,226,447$

132,458,313 132,458,313

11,737,635.54 3,231,866


- Blue: FY12 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures - Green: FY12 Spending Plan/Forecast Expenditures

* The forecasted surplus of $4.2M does include DTA policy change for parent work hours for 6-8 year olds. (Anticipated cost $4M.)

* FY11 caseload on average was 16,377. J uly and August reporting reflects a signifcant decrease which is contributing to the forecasted surplus.

* In FY11 caseload resulted in a deficit. The surplus reported does not incorporate potential increases in caseload.

* Budgeted caseload is based on a 2 year historical trend.




FY12 Appropriation

Surplus/Deficiency


FY 2012 DTA Related(3000-4050)

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YTD Forecast Change


Expenditures YTD Variance

Jun-11 5,983 5,984 N/A

Jul-11 5,898 6,001 103 6,348,668$ 6,348,668$ -$ 6,194,480$ 154,188$

Aug-11 5,818 5,995 177 6,883,969$ 6,704,454$ 179,515$ 6,501,733$ 536,424$

Sep-11 5,838 5,998 160 6,596,261$ 6,381,222$ 394,554$ 6,076,015$ 1,056,671$

Oct-11 5,564 5,621 57 6,125,768$ 5,894,777$ 625,545$ 5,904,593$ 1,277,846$

Nov-11 5,564 5,669 105 6,415,166$ 6,174,643$ 866,068$ 6,146,745$ 1,546,266$

Dec-11 5,609 6,445,428$ 6,202,328$ 1,109,169$ 6,470,924$ 1,520,770$

Jan-12 5,573 6,416,044$ 6,174,054$ 1,351,158$ 6,499,964$ 1,436,850$

Feb-12 5,573 6,124,406$ 5,893,415$ 1,582,149$ 6,183,863$ 1,377,394$

Mar-12 5,677 6,483,937$ 6,241,947$ 1,824,139$ 6,511,918$ 1,349,413$

Apr-12 5,677 6,189,213$ 5,958,223$ 2,055,129$ 6,189,235$ 1,349,390$

May-12 5,676 6,778,383$ 6,525,394$ 2,308,118$ 6,694,862$ 1,432,912$

Jun-12 5,438 6,039,538$ 6,308,548$ 2,039,109$ 6,347,706$ 1,124,743$

GRANTS 600,000$ 600,000$ 2,039,109$ 600,000$ 1,124,743$

TOTAL 77,446,781$ 75,407,672$ 76,322,038$

77,448,576 77,448,576

2,040,904 1,126,538


- Blue: FY12 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures - Green FY12 Spending Plan/Forecast Expenditures

* Budgeted caseload is based on a 3 year historical trend for service months with caseload decreases.

* Vouchers are no longer available for Supportive Care and are in the process of being phased out.

* Dollar and caseload for vouchers are included in the totals reported.




FY12 Appropriation

Surplus/Deficiency


FY 2012 Supportive (3000-3050)

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FY2012 Income Eligible Total Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

Total Appropriation of $232.9M includes $9,019,276 for GrantsNovember 2011 Voucher Expenditures paid is $7,239,406.

Gray : Appropriation Budget (Spending Plan Projection)

Purple: September Board Report (July Actuals/Aug-Jun Forecast)

Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures

FY2012 DTA Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

15




FY2012 Supportive Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

16Total Appropriation is $ 77.447 includes $600K for Grants not reported in chart.




FY12 Income Eligible Contract Slots Overview

As of January 3, 2012 there are 14,469 awarded slots. Of the total awarded slots there is a net 1,532 open contracted slots. One hundred and fifty six slots became vacant in December.

The total allowable flex is 860 slots; 596.5 slots are filled. The number of flex slots filled decreased by 6. Currently there are 32 providers whose flex slots are over 5% by 438 slots (awarded 73, used 511). Providers under 5% have 701.5 flex slots not filled (awarded 787, used 86.5).

EEC currently has 178 contracted vendors; 150 (84%) of them have open contracted slots. There are 490 contracts by program type, 301 (61%) of the contracts have open contracted slots.

Note that in the chart below the standard deviation of 59.2282(Nov 1, 2011) for the Head Start Partner Before & After Program is skewed because one program has 287 awarded slots, but 143 of them are open.

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Median by Program Type Standard Deviation by Program Type

Jan. 3, 2012

Nov. 29, 2011

Nov. 01, 2011 Jan. 3,

2012Nov. 29,

2011Nov. 01,

2011

CENTER BASED INFANT 4 1 1 CENTER BASED INFANT 2.0284 1.2067 1.3006

CENTER BASED INFANT/TODDLER 10.5 0 1 CENTER BASED INFANT/TODDLER 3.9244 3.5178 4.206

CENTER BASED PRE-SCHOOL 22.25 3 4 CENTER BASED PRE-SCHOOL 7.3212 7.1977 9.4735

CENTER BASED SCHOOL-AGE 18 1 4 CENTER BASED SCHOOL-AGE 4.8954 4.9583 5.9201

CENTER BASED TODDLER 5.75 0.5 1.75 CENTER BASED TODDLER 2.7866 2.6413 3.5202CENTER BASED TODDLER/PRE-SCHOOL 4.5 0.5 0.5

CENTER BASED TODDLER/PRE-SCHOOL 1.4142

FAMILY CHILD CARE < 2 8 6.8 11 FAMILY CHILD CARE < 2 10.6706 10.7463 11.058

FAMILY CHILD CARE > 2 31 -3 4 FAMILY CHILD CARE > 2 10.3987 10.7835 2.5171

HEAD START PARTNER B&A 15.5 0 3 HEAD START PARTNER B&A 37.1889 37.8882 *59.2282

FY2012 Contract Slots - Regular and Flex

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Total Awarded Slots is 14469 and Allowable Flex Slots is 860

32 Providers representing 46 contracts are Over 5% Flex (438)

**No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.

Regular Filled Regular Open Flex Filled Flex OpenFlex - Over

5%Flex - Under

5%

9/ 7/2011 12279.5 2210.5 722 111 -582 693

10/3/ 2011 12297 2193 636 197 -518.5 715.5

11/1/ 2011 12801.5 1637.5 640 214 -495.5 710.5

11/29/2011 13029.5 1429.5 623.5 232.5 -473 705.5

1/ 3/2012 12937.5 1531.5 596.5 264 -438 701.5

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Addendum:Caseload Waitlist Since 11/2010

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Waiting List Category11/30/10

Total12/28/10

Total1/28/11

Total2/28/11

Total3/31/11

Total4/29/11

Total5/31/11

Total6/30/11

Total7/31/11

Total8/31/11 Total*

9/29/11 Total*

10/31/11 Total*

11/30/11 Total*

12/31/11 Total*

Child of Foster Care 88 69 62 60 68 73 96 116 117 116 125 131 137 143

Child of Homeless family 145 126 131 123 125 123 126 151 157 133 139 140 144 158

Child of Military Personnel 23 28 31 30 33 34 36 42 42 45 48 51 50 54

Child of Teen Parent 108 109 82 88 96 103 108 127 138 130 152 160 174 187

Child w ith Special Needs 684 625 663 670 753 799 800 885 902 823 849 893 936 975

Continuity of Care: Aging Out 123 110 103 86 99 111 113 129 122 171 278 283 285 280

Continuity of Care: Approved Break in Service 49 54 67 74 94 88 100 160 179 226 275 286 294 301

Continuity of Care: Child Left Care w ithin 3 Months 124 82 74 59 55 53 44 42 40 49 127 127 126 125

Continuity of Care: Geographic Relocation 40 35 35 40 50 59 52 71 67 60 69 65 67 73

Continuity of Care: Homeless Contract 3 8 5 4 4 4 4 5 7 5 5 5 5 8

Continuity of Care: NTCC 1 1 1 1 2 2 - - - - -

Continuity of Care: Supportive Referral 79 64 84 65 72 68 77 84 88 83 93 98 102 100

Continuity of Care: Teen Parent Contract 21 15 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 22 20 20 20 20

General Priority 15,081 13,618 14,292 15,191 16,913 18,300 18,847 21,663 22,074 20,533 21,281 21,742 22,711 23,638

No Priority - Other Family Member 6 329

Grandparent/Guardian Families 251 236 247 245 249 260 278 330 326 298 317 321 327 14

Parent w ith Special Needs 344 321 331 361 402 445 449 503 512 461 473 479 496 509

Sibling: Contract 180 149 144 145 154 173 173 224 226 229 240 244 250 266

Sibling: CPC - -

Sibling: Voucher 300 252 253 272 248 295 313 404 430 447 514 549 575 605

Summer only care 445 393 391 395 432 489 524 959 847 590 592 596 591 586

Grand Total 18,089 16,294 17,007 17,921 19,861 21,491 22,155 25,911 26,291 24,421 25,597 26,059 27,296 28,371

*Waitlist Data as of August 2011 is reported from KinderWait.

Documents

FY12 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee January 9 , 2012