Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
General ElectionOpinion Poll
13th May 2016
Methodology and Weighting
RED C interviewed a random sample of 1,015 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 9th – 11th May 2016.
A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.
Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile.
Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the recall for how people voted at the last election and weights this to the exact result at the last election.
Vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 8 to 10 are included as being those who will definitely go and vote.
In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both ESOMAR and AIMRO.
Key Findings - IVote Behaviour
• The slow pace of formation on a new government appears to have had little impact on voters claimed behaviour if another election were to be held tomorrow, with support for most of the major parties within the margin of error of the actual result.
• Fine Gael (27%) retain a small lead over Fianna Fail (25%), and this is actually even closer when decimal point rounding is removed. Sinn Fein do see some small gains in support rising to 16%, approximately 2% ahead of what they achieved at the election. Labour at 5% support are 2% below what they achieved at the last election.
• The Independent candidates appear to have suffered most following the government formation, with Independent Candidates down 4% to secure 9% in this poll, while the Independent Alliance are also down 1% since the election, continuing an apparent downward trend, albeit within the margin of error.
• The AAA-PBP, Greens and the Social Democrats all appear to come out of negotiations quite well, despite most not having taken part, with gains for all three parties vs the actual election results.
Figurehead Satisfaction
• Micheal Martin sees his satisfaction rating fall back from the highs of the campaign but does still get better ratings than any of his competitive set – his rating among his own party supporters is however at its highest level ever. Enda Kenny’s ratings also fall back, with Shane Ross (measured for the first time) at a similar level to him. Gerry Adams satisfaction ratings are at the lowest level seen for some time.
Confidence in Government to Last
• Over half the population (52%) do not have confidence in the government to run the country, including 20% of Fine Gael voters, and 69% of those who voted for Independent candidates. Confidence is lowest among the 25-54 year old age groups.
• It is no surprise then that almost half of all voters (45%) do not believe the government will last more than a year, with almost a third (31%) of Fine Gael voters feeling that this will be the case.
• Well over half of all voters (56%) also believe that the lack of a government has been harmful to the Irish Economy.
Key Findings - IIFine Gael Leadership
• Almost half of all voters (48%) believe that Enda Kenny should step down now as leader of Fine Gael and Taoiseach, including 18% of Fine Gael voters; while a further 18% believe he should go in the next 1-2 years. Just under 1 in 5 believe he should stay the full length of his term in office.
• Leo Varadkar is the voters favourite to succeed Enda Kenny, with 32% of all voters and 39% of Fine Gale voters supporting him to replace the current Taoiseach. Varadkar support is relatively stronger among younger voters, those in more upmarket social groups and in Dublin.
• Simon Coveney is the second favourite to succeed Enda Kenny with 25% support among all voters and 28% among Fine Gael voters. His support is much more polarised, with very strong support among older voters, but much weaker support among younger age groups.
Irish Water
• A significant proportion of voters (61%) believe that Irish Water should now be abolished, with those in younger age groups and Sinn Fein supporters most likely to feel this.
• Over two thirds (71%) also believe that those who have paid their water charges to date should be refunded, while only around a third of voters (34%) feel that those who haven’t paid should be perused through the courts for payment.
• Despite this well over half of voters (59%) suggest that they would pay water charges in the future were they to be introduced again.
Armed Gardaí
• Close to two thirds of voters (62%) agree that the Gardaí should be armed to protect themselves and citizens against mob violence in Ireland.
School Funding
• Three in five (60%) also agree that it should be made illegal for schools in receipt of any State funding to use religion as a criterion for admission
Key Findings – III -
The Lighter Side
• On the lighter side 6% of voters would prefer to see Donald Trump as Taoiseach rather than either Micheal Martin or Enda Kenny. Half (49%) would prefer to see Micheal Martin as Taoiseach, while only a third (36%) would pick Enda Kenny.
• On the same theme more people would like to have dinner with Donald Trump (34%) than Enda Kenny (28%), but Micheal Martin trumps them both with 44% of voters wanting to have dinner with him.
• Finally very few voters in Ireland (8%) trust Donald Trump to have his finger on the nuclear button, with far more voters trusting either Enda Kenny (27%) or Micheal Martin (32%)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
Fine Gael
27% =
Labour
5% +1
Fianna Fail
25% =
Sinn Fein
16% +1
Ind. Candidate
9% =
Undecided Voters 7%
First Preference Vote Intention – 13th May 2016
Ind. Alliance
3% -2
AAA-PBP
6% +2
SocialDemocrats
4% +1
Green
4% +1
Renua
1% -1
26
%
24
%
14
%
13
%
7%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
<1%
27
%
25
%
15
%
9%
4% 5
%
4% 5
%
3%
2%
1%
27
%
25
%
16
%
9%
5%
3%
6%
4%
4%
1%
<1%
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
First Preference Vote Intention – May ‘16If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) +
PROMPT If Independent Candidate for party.
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)
2016 Election
Paddy Power
May 13th
Fine Gael
27%
Fianna Fail
25%
Sinn Fein
16%
Ind. Candidate
9%Labour
5%
Ind. Alliance
3%AAA-PBP
6%
SocialDemocrats
4%Green
4%Renua
1%Other
<1%
SBPMarch 13th
CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT
Core figures Impact of Past vote
weighting
Likely Voters
(8-10)
Excluding Undecided
Prompting on Other Parties
2011 Election Results
% % % % % %
Fine Gael 25 23 26 27 27 26
Labour 5 5 5 6 6 7
Fianna Fáil 21 23 24 25 25 24
Sinn Féin 16 16 15 16 16 14
Independent candidates 16 15 13 14 12 17
Green Party 3 3 4 4 4 3
Renua 0 0 0 0 1 2
AAA-PBP 2 3 4 4 6 4
Social Democrats 2 3 3 4 4 3
Workers Party 0 0 0 0 <1 <1
Other 0 0 0 0 0 <1
Undecided 10 10 5 n/a n/a n/a
First Preference Vote Intention – 13th May 2016If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (showing impact of past vote weighting, and likely voter filters)
(Base: All adults 18+)
0% 0%
61 62 69 66 58 63
44 52 55 60 64 62 58 58 52
65 69
62 73 70 66 63 68
76 53
33 33 31 34 36 33
5442 43 37 35 38 39 41 47
3526
3427 30 30 33 30
24336-10
0-5
Micheal Martin
%
Enda Kenny
%
Gerry Adams
%
Don’t Know 6% 3% 4%
0 = Very Poor and 10 = Excellent
4% 1% 4%
Micheal Martin (FF)N=188
Enda Kenny (FG)N=203
Gerry Adams (SF)N=118
Shane Ross (IND ALL)N=108
% 6-10 among ‘own party’ Intenders
83% 74% 72% 35%
Political Figureheads PerformanceIrrespective of which party you support, how would you rate the performance of each of the following figureheads on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = Very poor and 10 = Excellent?
(Base: All adults 18+ - 1,002)
1% *% 1%
Dec
15
Feb
16
May
16
Jan
14
6% 2% 5%
June
14
4%5% 3%
Jan
15
Shane Ross
%
0% 1% 0%
Mar
15
0%
Feb
16
Dec
15
Feb
16
May
16
Jan
14
June
14
Jan
15
Mar
15
Feb
16
Dec
15
Feb
16
May
16
Jan
14
June
14
Jan
15
Mar
15
Feb
16
May
16
2% 2% 2% x%
Confidence in New Government
22
30
40
8A Lot of Confidence
Don’t know
Confidence in Government to Run the Country(Base: All adults 18+)
%
A Little Confidence
No confidence at all
Not very much confidence
1
48% Confident
52% Not Confident
Q. To what extent, if at all, do you have confidence in this government to run the country?
(Base: All Adults 18+)
Who has Little or No Confidence in this Government to Run the Country
52% 52%
ABC1: 49%
C2DE: 60%
Gender
Social Class Region
Rest of Leinster
54%Munster
52%
Conn/ Ulster
50%
Dublin
51%
20%
45%
49%
70%
Party Support
69%Independents
Age43%
66%
49%
61%
38%
47%
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
54-65
65+
68%Undecideds
52%
516
18
35
39
6Less than 3 Months
Don’t know
Expected Length Current Government Will Last(Base: All adults 18+)
%
4 months to 1 year
1 – 2 years
3 - 4 years
2 – 3 years
1Full term – 5 years
45%Less than 1 Year
Q. How long do think this new government coalition will last?
4543
4839
55464746
3639
513132
4262
5354
4346
4942
Total
Male
Female
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
ABC1
C2DE
Fine Gael
Labour
Fianna Fail
Sinn Fein
Ind.
Undecided
Dublin
Rest of Lein.
Munster
Conn/Ulster
%
Who thinks Gov. will last less than a year
(Base: All Adults 18+)
Who Agrees The Lack Of Government For The Past Three Months Was
Harmful To The Irish Economy
54% 58%
ABC1: 50%
C2DE: 61%
48%
56%
56%
71%
Age 61%
57%
54%
65%
41%
57%
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
54-65
65+
Gender
Social Class Party Support Region
Rest of Leinster
67%Munster
61%
Conn/ Ulster
67%
Dublin
56%
51%Independents
72%Undecideds
56%
Fine Gael Leadership
17
16
18
48Go Now
Don’t know
How Soon Should Enda Kenny Retire from Taoiseach(Base: All adults 18+)
%
Go in 1-2 years
Go in 3-4 years
Stay for the length of his term
1
Q. Enda Kenny has pledged he will not see out the next term as Taoiseach. Do you think he should…
4846
4932
5649
5845
3742
5518
2653
6542
5152
4739
Total
Male
Female
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
ABC1
C2DE
Fine Gael
Labour
Fianna Fail
Sinn Fein
Ind.
Undecided
Dublin
Rest of Lein.
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Who thinks Enda Kenny should go now?
%
32%
25%
14%
7%
4%
1%
17%
Category 1
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Category 4
Category 4
Category 4
Leo Varadkar
Who Should Replace Enda Kenny as the Next Taoiseach(Base: All adults 18+)
Simon Coveney
John Deasy
Paschal Donohoe
Frances Fitzgerald
Simon Harris
None of the above/ Don’t
Know
3234
3126
3440
3039
2338
2839
2833
2729
1136
3127
36
Total
Male
Female
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
ABC1
C2DE
Fine Gael
Labour
Fianna Fail
Sinn Fein
Ind.
Undecided
Dublin
Rest of Lein.
Munster
Conn/Ulster
2527
249
1519
2632
4722
2728
1834
1623
3518
3034
16
Varadkar Coveney
(39%)
(28%)
(16%)
(8%)
(1%)
(<1%)
(8%)
() Fine Gael Voters
All Adults %%
Irish Water
3827
65
39
6172
34
59Agree
Don’t know
Attitudes Towards Irish Water(Base: All adults 18+)
Those who didn’t
pay their water
charges should be
pursued in the
courts
%
People who paid
their water
charges should be
refunded
%
Irish Water
should be
abolished
%
If water charges
are ever re-
introduced I would
pay them
%
Disagree
1% 1% 1% 2%
%
Those who didn’t pay their
water charges should be
pursued in the courts
%
People who paid their
water charges should
be refunded
%
Irish Water
should be
abolished
%
If water charges are ever
re-introduced I would pay
them
%
6157
6574
7059
6760
4452
7030
3859
907774
6366
5955
Total
Male
Female
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
ABC1
C2DE
Fine Gael
Labour
Fianna Fail
Sinn Fein
Ind.
Undecided
Dublin
Rest of Lein.
Munster
Conn/Ulster
7268
7684
72697472
6468
7665
5769
7879
91727473
66
3438
30202631
2741
5639
2946
5945
131816
2930
3939
5961
5734
53545863
8366
5267
8691
2537
5853
606161
Attitudes Towards Irish Water(Base: All adults 18+)
Topics of Interest in Ireland
(Base: All Adults 18+)
Who Agrees Gardaí In Ireland Should Be Armed To Protect Themselves
And Citizens Against Mob Violence In Ireland
56% 68%
ABC1: 52%
C2DE: 68%
Gender
Social Class Region
Rest of Leinster
67%Munster
61%
Conn/ Ulster
67%
Dublin
56%
56%
62%
55%
74%
Party Support
71%Independents
Age72%
61%
68%
62%
52%
61%
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
54-65
65+
83%Undecideds
62%
(Base: All Adults 18+)
Who Agrees It Should Be Made Illegal For Schools In Receipt Of Any
State Funding To Use Religion As A Criterion For Admission
60% 60%
ABC1: 64%
C2DE: 59%
Gender
Social Class Region
Rest of Leinster
67%Munster
61%
Conn/ Ulster
67%
Dublin
56%
53%
59%
64%
57%
Party Support
62%Independents
Age54%
68%
60%
68%
51%
52%
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
54-65
65+
60%Undecideds
60%
Political Satire
Donald Trump
Political Satire – which of these political leaders would you like to…(Base: All adults 18+)For each of the following scenarios, can you tell me who, if any you would like to see in this position…you can mention as many of these political
characters as you want, or even none at all
Enda Kenny
Micheal Martin
Be Taoiseach of Ireland
%
Have dinner with
%
Have their finger on the nuclear
button%
49
36
6
44
28
34
32
27
8
Don’t Know/None 29 32 54