Public Opinion Poll On The Socio- Economic And Political ... · Public Opinion Poll Methodology — Strategic Africa conducted country wide public opinion poll on the socio-economic

M AY 2 0 1 2 P R E PA R E D BY

T I T A N P L A Z A , C H A K A R O A D , N A I R O B I , K E N Y A P . O . B O X 7 2 0 1 - 0 0 1 0 0 N A I R O B I ,

T E L : 2 5 4 - 0 2 0 - 2 7 1 2 2 1 2 / 3 , E M A I L : I N F O @ S T R A T E G I C A F R I C A . C O M

Public Opinion Poll On The Socio-Economic And Political State Of Kenya

www.strategicafrica.com

1

Updating The Past, Informing The Future

Contents Of The Report 2

— Public Opinion Poll Survey ¡ Introduction ¡ Methodology ¡ Demographics ¡ Findings

www.strategicafrica.com Updating The Past, Informing The Future

Introduction To Public Opinion Polling

— Opinion Polls designed to represent the opinions of a population by asking a representative number of the population a series of questions and then extrapolating the answers to the larger group within confidence intervals.

— Public opinion polling allow the voices of the ordinary citizens to be heard above the clamor of special interests.

— The result is that the ordinary citizen has a chance to influence government actions and participate in decisions that affect their daily lives.

— Opinion polling should be seen as a means of measuring the pulse and mood of the country as well as providing a mouth-piece for the millions of Kenyan citizens who do not have alternative means of making their feelings and opinions known to the ruling elite.

Public Opinion Poll Methodology

— Strategic Africa conducted country wide public opinion poll on the socio-economic and

political state of Kenya. A sample of 5000 respondents was drawn and distributed

across the 46 counties based on the respective population as per the 2009 Census.

— The sampling frame was developed using population proportionate to size (PPS),

adopting purposive, random and systematic sampling techniques. This ensured

respondents aged 17 years and above was given an equal opportunity to participate.

— The data collection involved face-to-face interviewing of respondents at household

level using a semi-structured questionnaire. Strict quality control measures for data

collection were applied through back checks and accompaniments.

Summary On Poll Methodology 5


Survey Area Nation Wide

Sample size 5000

Sample distribution

Stratified Multi-stage Sampling (Using PPS)

Target Population

Respondents at Household level across 46 Counties

Instrument Semi-structured questionnaires administered using face-to-face interviews

Sampling error +/-1.6 with a 95% confidence level

Field Dates April 27th – May 2nd 2012

Regions Covered 6

Regions County Frequency % Central Region Kiambu, Murang'a, Nyeri, Nyandarua,

Kirinyaga 570 11.5

Coast Region Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu,

436 8.8

Eastern Region Tana River, Meru, Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Tharaka, Embu, Isiolo, Marsabit

816 16.4

Nairobi Region Nairobi 386 7.8 North Eastern Region Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, 288 5.8 Nyanza Region Kisii, Migori, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Nyamira,

Siaya 704 14.2

Rift Valley Region Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Kericho, Nandi, Bomet, Kajiado, Laikipia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Trans-Nzoia, Samburu, Baringo, Turkana, Narok

1222 24.6

Western Region Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga, Busia 540 10.9


Demographics Of the Study

Gender Education level Marital status Male 52.70% No formal education 9.5% Married/Cohabiting 55.7% Female 47.30% Primary 20.2% Single 37.8% Total 100% Secondary 38.1% Divorced/Separated 2.6% Age of respondent Tertiary 20.2% Widow/Widower 3.8% 17 - 24 30.4% University 8.8% Total 100% 25 - 29 16.4% Post-Graduate 1.6% Religion 30 - 34 12.6% No response 1.6% Christian - Catholic 34.9% 35 - 39 9.7% Total 100% Christian _ Protestant 52.3% 40 - 44 8.2% Occupation Traditionalist/Indigenous 2.3% 45 - 49 6.2% Full time formal employment 14.0% Islam 10.4% 50 - 54 5.0% Full time informal employment 24.1% Hindu 0.1% 55 - 59 3.4% Part time formal employment 6.4% Total 100% Above 60 years 7.6% Part time informal employment 10.7% Language Used No response 0.4% Unemployed 29.8% Kiswahili 42.8% Total 100% Student 11.5% English 41.1% Location Retired 2.1% Venacular 16.2% Urban No response 1.5% Total 100% Rural Total 100%

Total 100%

8

Findings


State of Kenyans in the Past Year 9


Would you say you are better off as an individual compared to the same time last year

39.8

31.3

24.8

4.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Better off than lastyear

Same as last yearWorse off than lastyear

No idea/comment

Would you say you are better off as an individual compared to the same time last year

No formal education Primary Secondary Tertiary University Post graduate Total

Better off than last year 36.0% 33.9% 39.2% 44.4% 49.4% 53.2% 39.8%

Same as last year 30.2% 34.1% 31.6% 28.2% 30.3% 25.3% 31.3%

Worse off than last year 26.6% 28.8% 25.9% 22.7% 16.2% 17.7% 24.8%

No idea/comment 7.2% 3.3% 3.3% 4.7% 4.1% 3.8% 4.1%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

39% of the respondents feel they are better off than last year.

Achievements Of The Current Government 10

Top Achievements of the current government since last general elections % Enacting of the New Constitution & Introduction of the devolved Government/New Bills & Amendments 24.8% Improvement of Transport System - Construction of roads 18.8% Improvement of the Education Sector – Free Primary Education & Building of Schools 14.8% None 10.3% Improvement of Infrastructure - Technology 9.2% Promoting National Cohesion, Integration and Peace 2.9% Judicial Reforms/Vetting of Committees, Institutions and Commissioners 2.2% Improved economy & Living standards/Equal distribution of resources 1.8% Improvement of social amenities - Health services 1.7% Improved security – Linda Nchi & Disarmament Exercise 1.3% The fight against corruption & tribalism 1.3% CDF - Community Development Funds 1.0%


What would you say is the best achievement of the current Government since last general elections:

Failures of The Current Government 11

Top failures of the current government % Corruption - Tribalism/Impunity/Incitement 29.3% Poor Economy - High inflation & living standards 14.0% Insecurity - Crime/Terrorist attack 6.9% Neglect of IDP's 6.6% Lack of employment 6.6% Poor implementation of Policies 6.6% Lack of Unity - Among leaders/political parties & people 3.4% Poor Infrastructure - roads/ railway 2.8% Poverty/Drought and Famine 2.4% None 1.6% Poor leadership 1.5% Poor implementation of free primary education 1.4% Unequal distribution of resources 1.1%


What would you say is the biggest failure of the current Government :

Performance of The Current Government 12


15%

50%

27%

21%

29%

14%

17%

14%

11%

12%

29%

21%

29%

30%

27%

24%

26%

19%

16%

18%

37%

17%

28%

32%

27%

38%

34%

29%

31%

29%

15%

7%

10%

12%

11%

18%

15%

22%

23%

23%

5%

5%

6%

6%

6%

7%

8%

17%

18%

19%

National integration

Fighting corruption

Employment creation

Justice for marginalized

Fairness in distributing resources and opportunities

Agricultural development

Implementation of constitution

Media freedom

Education

Construction of Roads

Performance of The Current Government

Worst (1-2) Relatively Worse (3-4) Neutral (4-5) Relatively Best (7-8) Best (9-10)

Please rate the performance of the Government in the following areas, on a 10 point scale:

Qualities Of Presidential Aspirants 13

Qualities % Integrity/Honest/Transparent 32.4%

Effort/ work done/ hardworking 6.1%

Focus on Kenyans / close to people 5.8%

Education/knowledgeable 5.6%

Improve economy / Development oriented 5.3%

Non discriminative/Not tribalistic 5.2%

Religious/ God fearing 3.3%

Leadership skills/ experienced 2.9%

Responsible 2.8%

Visionary/ future oriented 2.6%

Peace maker 2.1%

Young turk/ youthful 1.8%

Confident/ Brave / Authoritative 1.7%

Unite Kenyans 1.7%

Democratic 1.6%

Man who can deliver/ reformist 1.4%

Patriot 1.2%

Create job opportunities 1.1%


What qualities are you looking to see in the next president of Kenya:

Qualities Of Presidential Aspirants 14


Which leader has the qualities you are looking for in the next presidential candidate:

Raila

Odinga Musalia

Mudavadi Uhuru

Kenyatta William

Ruto Ole

Kiyapi George Saitoti

Eugene Wamalwa

Martha Karua

Cyrus Jirongo

Mutava Musyimi

Peter Kenneth

Charity Ngilu

Kalonzo Musyoka

Raphael Tuju

Integrity/Honest/Transparent 39.8% 8.4% 17.1% 8.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.5% 6.6% 0.1% 0.4% 4.8% 0.3% 7.6% 2.0%

Effort/ work done/ hardworking 42.3% 8.8% 14.0% 11.3% 1.4% 0.0% 2.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 0.7% 9.0% 0.7%

Focus on Kenyans / close to people 36.3% 6.2% 18.5% 9.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 9.0% 0.0% 0.5% 3.6% 0.5% 9.0% 1.4%

Education/knowledgeable 35.4% 12.1% 20.3% 10.0% 1.8% 1.3% 0.8% 5.6% 0.3% 0.8% 2.6% 0.8% 7.2% 1.3%

Improve economy / Development oriented

35.9% 7.2% 21.7% 7.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.5% 5.9% 0.0% 0.5% 5.7% 0.3% 9.6% 3.1%

Looking at the attributes respondents feel Raila is the leader who has the qualities they are looking for, followed by Uhuru

Consideration In Voting for the President 15


What will be your main consideration in choosing the next president of Kenya

15.3

10.2

7.5

5

4.4

4.2

4.1

3.6

0 5 10 15 20

Past experience/notcorrupted/good

reputation/qualities

Integrity/Honest and forwardlooking man/faithful

Competence/strongvisionary/ideologies/manifesto

Leader who is nottribalistic/Discriminate

Hardworking/ Aggressive

Transparent

Ability to lead/supportinstitution/strong leadership

God fearing/peace drivenleader

Past experience and integrity are the two main considerations for respondents for selection of the next president

Please indicate the person, from among those who declared interest in the presidency, you would trust most to improve the following sectors

– Education 16


Sector - Education

23.7

14

11.6

7.8

7.7

7.1

6.3

5

4.8

4.3

2.5

0 5 10 15 20 25

Raila Odinga

Undecided/Notsure

Uhuru Kenyatta

William Ruto

George Saitoti

Ole Kiyapi

KalonzoMusyoka

MusaliaMudavadi

None/No one

Martha Karua

Peter Kenneth

23% of the respondent feel they will trust Raila most to improve education sector


– Education 17


Education

Nairobi Central Coast Eastern North

eastern Rift

Valley Nyanza Western Total Raila Odinga 28.8% 3.3% 23.7% 10.4% 49.8% 15.8% 49.6% 30.7% 23.7%

Uhuru Kenyatta 7.8% 48.1% 6.2% 10.9% 5.6% 9.6% 2.4% 1.3% 11.6%

William Ruto 2.6% 2.5% 2.7% 4.9% 4.2% 21.5% 1.4% 4.8% 7.8%

George Saitoti 4.9% 8.4% 7.6% 7.0% 6.7% 8.6% 8.1% 8.1% 7.7%

Ole Kiyapi 7.3% 3.5% 4.1% 4.7% 8.1% 9.5% 9.7% 7.6% 7.1%

Kalonzo Musyoka 4.1% 3.2% 2.7% 25.6% 3.5% 2.5% 3.8% 0.2% 6.3%

Musalia Mudavadi 4.7% 2.5% 7.6% 0.1% 6.0% 4.2% 3.6% 15.9% 5.0%

Martha Karua 7.0% 4.7% 6.0% 2.5% 3.5% 3.6% 5.0% 4.4% 4.3%

Peter Kenneth 5.7% 4.9% 3.1% 2.2% 0.4% 2.2% 1.3% 1.3% 2.5%

Raphael Tuju 2.6% 3.9% 1.2% 0.4% 1.4% 2.7% 0.4% 1.6%

Eugene Wamalwa 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 1.3% 0.6% 2.6% 0.8%

Charity Ngilu 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2%

Mutava Musyimi 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2%

Cyrus Jirongo 0.6% 0.4% 0.1%


– Employment Sector 18


Sector - Employment Creation

29

17

14

6

6

6

5

5

3

3

1

1

0 10 20 30 40

Raila Odinga

Undecided/Not sure/Dont know/ Noidea

Uhuru Kenyatta

William Ruto

Musalia Mudavadi

Kalonzo Musyoka

None/No one

Martha Karua

Peter Kenneth

Raphael Tuju

George Saitoti

Eugene Wamalwa

29% of the respondent feel they will trust Raila most to improve the Employment sector


– Employment Sector 19


Employment creation

Nairobi Central Coast Eastern North eastern Rift Valley Nyanza Western Total Raila Odinga

34.7% 5.6% 29.6% 13.9% 56.8% 22.3% 59.5% 34.6% 29.4%

Uhuru Kenyatta 10.4% 48.9% 7.8% 14.0% 10.5% 12.8% 1.7% 3.0% 13.7%

William Ruto 2.6% 1.9% 1.4% 3.4% 4.9% 18.2% 1.4% 3.0% 6.4%


Kalonzo Musyoka 4.4% 3.7% 2.7% 21.5% 4.2% 2.9% 2.1% 0.6% 5.7%

Martha Karua 5.7% 6.3% 4.3% 3.5% 3.9% 4.7% 5.5% 3.7% 4.7%

Peter Kenneth 6.5% 5.6% 3.5% 2.6% 1.8% 2.5% 1.8% 1.1% 3.0%

Raphael Tuju 3.9% 3.5% 2.7% 2.0% 2.7% 4.4% 1.5% 2.7%

George Saitoti 0.8% 1.9% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.1% 2.0% 1.3%

Eugene Wamalwa 0.5% 0.5% 1.9% 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 3.3% 1.2%

Ole Kiyapi 1.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.6% 1.1%

Charity Ngilu 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3%

Mutava Musyimi 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%

Cyrus Jirongo 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1%


– Construction of roads 20


Sector - Construction of roads

38

16.7

11.7

5.9

5.1

4.9

4.4

3.6

2.8

1.5

1.2

1

0 10 20 30 40

Raila Odinga

Undecided/Not sure/Dont know/ Noidea

Uhuru Kenyatta

Musalia Mudavadi

William Ruto

Kalonzo Musyoka

None/No one

Martha Karua

Peter Kenneth

Raphael Tuju

Eugene Wamalwa

George Saitoti

38% of the respondent feel they will trust Raila most to improve Construction of Roads


– Construction of roads 21


Construction of Roads


41.5% 15.1% 35.8% 25.1% 62.5% 31.1% 66.9% 45.6% 38.0%

Uhuru Kenyatta 8.5% 41.2% 7.0% 11.6% 8.1% 11.6% 2.1% 2.2% 11.7%


William Ruto 2.6% 1.1% 1.4% 3.0% 4.9% 13.6% 2.1% 2.0% 5.1%

Kalonzo Musyoka 3.4% 3.5% 2.5% 19.9% 3.9% 2.0% 1.4% 0.4% 4.9%

Martha Karua 5.4% 5.1% 3.5% 2.5% 4.6% 3.7% 2.7% 2.8% 3.6%

Peter Kenneth 4.4% 6.7% 2.9% 2.6% 0.4% 2.4% 1.6% 1.5% 2.8%

Raphael Tuju 1.8% 3.0% 1.9% 0.3% 1.3% 2.8% 0.4% 1.5%

Eugene Wamalwa 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 2.4% 0.6% 3.1% 1.2%

George Saitoti 0.5% 2.3% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0%

Ole Kiyapi 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8%

Charity Ngilu 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4%

Mutava Musyimi 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Cyrus Jirongo 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%


– National Integration 22


Sector - National Integration

27

18

12

8

7

6

6

5

3

2

2

2

1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Raila Odinga

Undecided/Notsure

Uhuru Kenyatta

KalonzoMusyoka

Martha Karua

MusaliaMudavadi

William Ruto

None/No one

Peter Kenneth

Eugene Wamalwa

George Saitoti

Raphael Tuju

Ole Kiyapi

27% of the respondent feel they will trust Raila most to improve National integration


– National Integration 23


National integration


eastern Rift Valley Nyanza Western Total Raila Odinga

32.1% 4.9% 28.8% 11.7% 58.6% 20.4% 53.7% 32.0% 27.2%

Uhuru Kenyatta 7.3% 44.0% 5.6% 12.4% 9.1% 10.0% 1.8% 2.4% 11.6%

Kalonzo Musyoka 6.0% 6.7% 3.5% 24.4% 2.5% 6.7% 3.0% 1.3% 7.7%

Martha Karua 7.8% 8.1% 8.6% 6.8% 7.4% 5.6% 8.2% 5.4% 7.0%


William Ruto 3.6% 2.3% 4.1% 3.8% 4.9% 13.9% 3.4% 3.0% 6.0%

Peter Kenneth 5.7% 5.8% 3.3% 2.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2.3% 1.3% 2.8%

Eugene Wamalwa 0.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 3.4% 2.1% 5.0% 2.1%

George Saitoti 1.0% 1.8% 1.2% 2.1% 0.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.5%

Raphael Tuju 2.1% 3.2% 1.4% 0.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 0.6% 1.5%

Ole Kiyapi 1.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.6% 1.1%

Mutava Musyimi 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4%

Charity Ngilu 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%

Cyrus Jirongo 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%


– Agricultural development 24


Sector - Agricultural Development

23

21

17

10

5

5

5

5

3

2

1

1

0 5 10 15 20 25

Raila Odinga

William Ruto

Undecided/Notsure

Uhuru Kenyatta

KalonzoMusyoka

Martha Karua

MusaliaMudavadi

None/No one

Peter Kenneth

Raphael Tuju

Eugene Wamalwa

George Saitoti

23% of the respondent feel they will trust Raila most to improve Agricultural development


– Agricultural development 25


Agricultural development


26.7% 3.7% 26.7% 10.5% 47.7% 14.8% 49.4% 26.9% 23.1%

William Ruto 15.8% 11.4% 15.0% 14.8% 18.2% 38.4% 19.2% 16.7% 21.3%

Uhuru Kenyatta 6.5% 42.5% 3.3% 11.2% 6.7% 8.9% 1.8% 1.5% 10.4%

Kalonzo Musyoka 4.4% 3.0% 2.1% 20.3% 3.2% 1.9% 1.3% 1.1% 5.0%

Martha Karua 6.7% 6.1% 6.8% 3.3% 4.9% 4.6% 4.8% 4.3% 5.0%


Peter Kenneth 5.2% 4.9% 2.9% 2.2% 3.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.9% 2.5%

Raphael Tuju 2.1% 3.5% 0.6% 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 2.8% 0.9% 1.6%

Eugene Wamalwa 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 1.6% 0.9% 2.8% 1.0%

George Saitoti 1.0% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9%

Ole Kiyapi 1.3% 1.4% 1.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8%

Charity Ngilu 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%

Mutava Musyimi 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%



– Implementation of the Constitution 26


Sector - Implementation of the Constitution

27

18

14

11

6

5

5

5

3

2

1

1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Raila Odinga

Undecided/Notsure

Martha Karua

Uhuru Kenyatta

KalonzoMusyoka

William Ruto

MusaliaMudavadi

None/No one

Eugene Wamalwa

Peter Kenneth

Raphael Tuju

George Saitoti


– Implementation of the Constitution 27


Implementation of constitution


30.6% 4.6% 28.2% 11.7% 48.8% 21.0% 55.4% 31.3% 26.7%

Martha Karua 15.0% 17.5% 16.3% 10.9% 16.1% 14.0% 14.8% 8.7% 13.9%

Uhuru Kenyatta 6.7% 40.9% 4.3% 11.2% 9.8% 10.5% 1.4% 1.1% 10.8%

Kalonzo Musyoka 3.6% 2.8% 3.1% 20.7% 4.6% 2.9% 2.8% 0.7% 5.6%

William Ruto 3.4% 2.1% 3.3% 2.2% 5.3% 12.7% 1.8% 3.9% 5.3%


Eugene Wamalwa 1.8% 0.9% 1.4% 1.3% 0.4% 3.7% 3.1% 7.6% 2.8%

Peter Kenneth 4.4% 4.9% 1.6% 3.0% 1.1% 1.9% 1.1% 0.2% 2.2%

Raphael Tuju 1.8% 3.2% 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 1.2%

George Saitoti 0.8% 1.8% 1.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.8% 1.4% 0.9% 1.1%

Ole Kiyapi 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9%

Mutava Musyimi 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

Charity Ngilu 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%

Cyrus Jirongo 0.6% 0.1%


– Justice for the Marginalised 28


Sector - Justice for the Marginalised

26

19

12

11

6

5

5

5

3

2

2

2

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Raila Odinga

Undecided/Notsure

Martha Karua

Uhuru Kenyatta

KalonzoMusyoka

MusaliaMudavadi

None/No one

William Ruto

Peter Kenneth

Eugene Wamalwa

Ole Kiyapi

George Saitoti


– Justice for the Marginalised 29


Justice for marginalized


31.3% 4.6% 27.2% 11.1% 51.6% 18.2% 53.7% 30.7% 25.7%

Martha Karua 12.2% 11.6% 14.0% 9.8% 12.3% 12.0% 14.2% 8.5% 11.8%

Uhuru Kenyatta 6.7% 41.8% 4.7% 10.5% 7.7% 10.2% 1.8% 1.9% 10.8%

Kalonzo Musyoka 4.7% 3.7% 3.3% 20.9% 3.5% 3.2% 2.0% 0.2% 5.6%


William Ruto 2.3% 1.2% 2.3% 2.7% 3.9% 12.7% 0.6% 2.0% 4.6%

Peter Kenneth 5.4% 6.3% 2.1% 3.4% 3.5% 2.1% 1.6% 0.9% 2.9%

Eugene Wamalwa 1.8% 1.4% 0.8% 1.6% 1.1% 3.2% 2.0% 5.0% 2.3%

Ole Kiyapi 1.6% 1.2% 1.6% 1.7% 1.1% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 1.7%

George Saitoti 1.3% 1.9% 2.5% 1.8% 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% 0.7% 1.6%

Raphael Tuju 2.3% 3.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 1.7% 0.4% 1.4%

Charity Ngilu 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6%

Mutava Musyimi 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%



– Media Freedom 30


Sector - Media Freedom

28

20

12

8

6

5

5

5

3

2

2

1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Raila Odinga

Undecided/Notsure

Uhuru Kenyatta

Martha Karua

KalonzoMusyoka

MusaliaMudavadi

William Ruto

None/No one

Peter Kenneth

Raphael Tuju

EugeneWamalwa

George Saitoti


– Media Freedom 31


Media freedom


35.2% 6.0% 29.8% 13.9% 54.7% 19.4% 58.2% 32.6% 28.2%

Uhuru Kenyatta 7.5% 45.3% 4.7% 12.2% 9.5% 10.8% 1.7% 1.7% 11.8%

Martha Karua 10.4% 7.5% 11.3% 5.9% 7.4% 7.6% 7.5% 6.9% 7.8%

Kalonzo Musyoka 4.7% 4.2% 1.4% 22.2% 7.0% 2.6% 2.6% 1.9% 6.0%


William Ruto 2.1% 1.2% 2.7% 2.0% 2.8% 13.8% 1.0% 2.0% 4.8%

Peter Kenneth 5.2% 6.8% 2.3% 3.5% 1.4% 4.2% 2.0% 0.4% 3.4%

Raphael Tuju 1.3% 4.2% 1.4% 1.8% 2.8% 2.7% 0.9% 2.2%

Eugene Wamalwa 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 2.7% 2.0% 2.8% 1.6%

George Saitoti 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 0.7% 1.3%

Ole Kiyapi 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 1.1%

Charity Ngilu 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4%

Mutava Musyimi 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3%


Please indicate the person, from among those who declared interest in the presidency, you would trust most to improve the following sectors –

Fairness in distributing resources & opportunities 32


Sector - Fairness in distributing resources and opportunities

29

20

12

8

6

6

6

6

3

1

1

1

1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Raila Odinga

Undecided/Notsure

Uhuru Kenyatta

Martha Karua

MusaliaMudavadi

None/No one

William Ruto

KalonzoMusyoka

Peter Kenneth

Raphael Tuju

EugeneWamalwa

Ole Kiyapi

George Saitoti

Please indicate the person, from among those who declared interest in the presidency, you would trust most to improve the following sectors –

Fairness in distributing resources & opportunities 33


Fairness in distributing resources and opportunities

Nairobi Central Coast Eastern North eastern Rift Valley Nyanza Western Total Raila Odinga 34.5% 4.4% 30.5% 13.1% 59.3% 20.1% 59.4% 31.9% 28.5%

Uhuru Kenyatta 8.0% 46.3% 4.7% 12.4% 8.4% 11.2% 2.1% 1.9% 12.1%

Martha Karua 10.9% 10.4% 10.5% 5.6% 6.3% 6.7% 6.7% 6.1% 7.6%


William Ruto 3.4% 0.5% 2.3% 3.3% 3.5% 15.9% 1.3% 2.0% 5.6%

Kalonzo Musyoka 3.9% 4.2% 3.1% 21.2% 6.0% 1.6% 2.7% 0.4% 5.5%

Peter Kenneth 6.0% 6.8% 2.5% 3.9% 0.7% 2.2% 2.7% 0.4% 3.1%

Raphael Tuju 1.8% 3.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 1.2% 1.6% 0.2% 1.3%

Eugene Wamalwa 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 1.9% 1.0% 3.5% 1.2%

Ole Kiyapi 1.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4% 1.2%

George Saitoti 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 0.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 1.1%

Charity Ngilu 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4%

Mutava Musyimi 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%

Cyrus Jirongo 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%


– Fighting corruption 34


Sector - Fighting Corruption

30

18

11

11

6

5

5

5

3

1

1

1

1

0 10 20 30 40

Raila Odinga

Undecided/Notsure

Martha Karua

Uhuru Kenyatta

None/No one

MusaliaMudavadi

Kalonzo Musyoka

William Ruto

Peter Kenneth

Raphael Tuju

Ole Kiyapi

Eugene Wamalwa

George Saitoti


– Fighting corruption 35


Fighting corruption


34.2% 5.1% 33.1% 13.8% 51.2% 24.5% 59.8% 37.8% 30.2%

Martha Karua 13.0% 15.8% 10.5% 10.0% 13.7% 11.0% 9.5% 6.9% 11.0%

Uhuru Kenyatta 7.5% 41.9% 4.1% 12.4% 8.1% 8.7% 2.1% 1.7% 10.8%


Kalonzo Musyoka 4.1% 2.1% 1.9% 20.0% 5.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 4.8%

William Ruto 2.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 4.6% 13.7% 1.0% 1.1% 4.6%

Peter Kenneth 6.0% 5.8% 2.5% 3.4% 1.1% 2.4% 1.3% 0.6% 2.8%

Raphael Tuju 1.6% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% 1.3%

Ole Kiyapi 1.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 2.2% 1.1% 0.2% 1.2%

Eugene Wamalwa 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 1.6% 2.0% 2.6% 1.2%

George Saitoti 0.8% 1.1% 1.6% 1.3% 0.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 1.1%

Charity Ngilu 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.6%

Mutava Musyimi 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%

Cyrus Jirongo 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Do you support the position that anybody who is charged with an offence in court should not be allowed to run for a political office

36


Do you support the position that anybody who is charged with an offence in court should not be allowed to run for a political

office

Don't Know

2%

Yes56%

No42%

9.4

7.9

7.8

6.2

5.7

5.2

5.1

4.9

4.6

3.5

0 2 4 6 8 10

They cannot be trusted

Respect the law

Criminals are not supposed tolead

They might be guilty

A leader should be a person ofintegrity

Still under investigation

Encourages impunity

They have criminal record

He will repeat the samemistakes

Kenya needs corruption freezone

Reasons for No Percent Unless proven guilty 22.4

They might have been mistaken 7.5

He may have changed 6.3

He may have good leadership qualities 5.5

Every Kenyan has a right to contest 3.9

They should be given a second chance 3.8

Everybody makes mistakes 3.8

Let democracy do its work 3.0

It depends with the crime 2.9

Maybe they were fighting for their rights 2.8

What is your position on the decision by Musalia Mudavadi to quit ODM

37


What is your position on the decision by Musalia Mudavadi to quit ODM

25.8

13.6

6

4.7

4.4

4.4

3.3

2.1

1.6

1.3

1.1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Support/Ok/Yes

Democracy/he is exercising hisdemocratic right/space

He did a wrong decision/foolishidea/bad move/ Worst decision

Surrender ODM/ quit

Will never be a president/out/notsupport

Nice move/take a life to save him self

Musalia's decision/we should respectit

Should not/ Should stay

Build himself politically

Not quite

No Democracy in ODM

25.8% of the respondents support the move by Mudavadi to quite ODM. A further 13.6% say he is exercising his democratic right.

Which political party would you say you are currently closest to: Vs

Which political party did you support in the last general elections 38


Which political party would you say you are currently closest to

34.9

8.4

8.2

4.9

4.2

2.1

1.8

1.5

1

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.6

0 10 20 30 40

Orange Democratic Movement (ODM)

Party of National unity (PNU)

United Republican party (URP)

Wiper

National Rainbow Coalition- Kenya(NARCK)

G7 Alliance

Kenya African National Union (KANU)

PNU Alliance

Power of Action

Ford Kenya

New Ford-Kenya

NARC

UDFP

Which political party did you support in the last general elections

48.1

25.5

4.9

1.9

1.5

0.8

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Orange Democratic Movement (ODM)

Party of National unity (PNU)

ODM-K (Wiper)

National Rainbow Coalition- Kenya(NARC-K)

Kenya African National Union (KANU)

NARC

Ford Kenya

National Vision Party

Refused to answer

Ford People

Kenya National Congress (KNC)

New Ford-Kenya

Generally there is a drop in party support from the last general elections. Wiper maintains its support base

If elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as President

39


If elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as President - May 2012

32.7

15.2

11.7

7.9

7.1

7

5.3

3.3

2.5

1.9

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.1

0 10 20 30 40

Raila Odinga

Uhuru Kenyatta

Undecided/Not sure/Dont know/ No idea

William Ruto

Musalia Mudavadi

Kalonzo Musyoka

Martha Karua

None/No one

Peter Kenneth

Raphael Tuju

Eugene Wamalwa

Ole Kiyapi

George Saitoti

Cyrus Jirongo

There is significant drop in support for leading political figures in the presidential race compared to previous Strategic polls. There is significant increase in undecided voters. Comparison in next slide.


40


Presidential Candidate Jun – 2011 Mar – 2012 May – 2012

Raila Odinga 40.1% 36.9% 32.7%

Kalonzo Musyoka 12.2% 9.7% 7.0%

William Ruto 11.7% 10.6% 7.9%

Uhuru Kenyatta 11.7% 23.9% 15.2%

Martha Karua 3.8% 4.6% 5.3%

Undecided 2.5% 3.0% 11.7%

Eugen Wamalwa 1.7% 1.8% 1.4%

Musalia Mudavadi 0.8% 1.8% 7.1%

Peter Kenneth 0.4% 2.6% 2.5%

George Saitoti 0.4% 2.1% 0.9%

Raphael Tuju 0.0% 1.2% 1.9%


If elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as President – by Province

41




eastern Rift Valley Nyanza Western Total

Raila Odinga 41.2% 4.9% 33.5% 15.2% 66.7% 23.8% 66.1% 38.5% 32.7% Uhuru Kenyatta 11.9% 57.9% 6.8% 15.7% 7.7% 13.4% 3.7% 2.2% 15.2% William Ruto 3.1% 1.1% 1.6% 3.5% 3.5% 24.6% 2.1% 2.8% 7.9% Musalia Mudavadi 9.1% 3.0% 7.8% 0.3% 8.1% 6.8% 5.0% 22.4% 7.1% Kalonzo Musyoka 5.7% 3.9% 3.1% 28.9% 4.6% 2.8% 2.3% 0.4% 7.0% Martha Karua 4.4% 6.5% 7.8% 4.8% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 6.7% 5.3% Peter Kenneth 4.7% 4.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.3% 1.4% 0.7% 2.5% Raphael Tuju 1.8% 3.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.4% 1.6% 2.3% 2.6% 1.9% Eugene Wamalwa 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 2.3% 1.3% 4.3% 1.4% Ole Kiyapi 1.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 1.1% George Saitoti 0.5% 1.1% 1.2% 1.7% 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% Mutava Musyimi 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% Charity Ngilu 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% Cyrus Jirongo 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

If elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as President – by Province – Comparison May 2012 vs June 2011

42


Period Nairobi Central Coast Eastern North

Eastern Rift

Valley Nyanza Western Total Change

Raila Amollo Odinga 2011 38.4% 19.4% 46.0% 23.9% 41.5% 30.5% 82.5% 59.3% 40.2%

-7.5% 2012 41.2% 4.9% 33.5% 15.2% 66.7% 23.8% 66.1% 38.5% 32.7%

Kalonzo Musyoka 2011 10.5% 13.9% 8.5% 36.1% 4.9% 8.7% 0.9% 1.7% 12.2%

-5.2% 2012 5.7% 3.9% 3.1% 28.9% 4.6% 2.8% 2.3% 0.4% 7.0%

William Ruto 2011 2.6% 0.8% 9.7% 12.5% 9.8% 29.0% 4.6% 10.4% 11.7%

-3.8% 2012 3.1% 1.1% 1.6% 3.5% 3.5% 24.6% 2.1% 2.8% 7.9%

Uhuru Kenyatta 2011 13.5% 34.6% 10.2% 7.2% 9.8% 9.3% 1.2% 0.9% 11.7%

3.5% 2012 11.9% 57.9% 6.8% 15.7% 7.7% 13.4% 3.7% 2.2% 15.2%

Martha Karua 2011 4.4% 7.9% 4.0% 3.6% 2.4% 4.0% 0.9% 0.4% 3.8%

1.5% 2012 4.4% 6.5% 7.8% 4.8% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 6.7% 5.3%

Undecided/Not sure 2011 7.9% 3.7% 0.6% 1.4% 2.4% 3.0% 0.3% 0.9% 2.6%

9.1% 2012 9.3% 8.9% 22.0% 17.9% 0.7% 10.7% 5.5% 14.1% 11.7%

Eugene Wamalwa 2011 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 13.9% 1.7%

-0.3% 2012 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 2.3% 1.3% 4.3% 1.4%

Musalia Mudavadi 2011 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.6% 4.3% 0.8%

6.3% 2012 9.1% 3.0% 7.8% 0.3% 8.1% 6.8% 5.0% 22.4% 7.1%

If elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as President – By County

43



Kiambu County

Murang'a County

Nyeri County

Nyandarua

County Kirinyaga

County Kilifi

County Mombasa County

Kwale County

Lamu County

Taita Taveta County

Tana River

County Raila Odinga 7.1% 5.6% 5.1% 5.9% 29.1% 32.2% 27.6% 28.0% 39.6% 58.0%

Musalia Mudavadi 4.7% 0.8% 2.2% 3.8% 1.5% 2.8% 10.7% 9.2% 4.0% 16.7% 8.0%

Uhuru Kenyatta 58.5% 50.0% 70.8% 62.0% 48.5% 2.1% 7.4% 11.8% 20.0% 2.1% 2.0%

William Ruto 1.4% 4.4% 0.7% 0.8% 1.3% 2.0% 2.1% 6.0%

Ole Kiyapi 0.9% 3.3% 1.1% 0.8% 2.1%

George Saitoti 0.5% 2.5% 1.3% 1.5% 3.3% 1.3% 2.0%

Eugene Wamalwa 0.5% 0.7% 2.0%

Martha Karua 5.2% 6.6% 9.0% 14.7% 5.7% 7.4% 13.2% 6.0% 6.3% 10.0%

Cyrus Jirongo 0.7%

Mutava Musyimi 2.1%

Peter Kenneth 8.0% 3.3% 2.2% 3.8% 0.7% 7.4% 1.3% 2.0% 8.3%

Charity Ngilu

Kalonzo Musyoka 4.7% 1.6% 7.6% 5.9% 5.8% 2.6% 8.0% 2.1% 2.0%

Raphael Tuju 0.5% 10.7% 4.5% 2.5% 2.9% 2.1% 0.8% 8.3% 2.0%

If elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as President – By County – Cont’d

44



Meru County

Machakos County

Kitui County

Makueni County

Tharaka County

Embu County

Isiolo County

Marsabit County

Nairobi County

Raila Odinga 18.9% 12.9% 11.5% 20.4% 16.0% 9.0% 8.2% 22.0% 41.2%

Musalia Mudavadi 0.8% 2.0% 9.1%

Uhuru Kenyatta 37.9% 3.1% 5.3% 28.0% 20.9% 24.5% 14.0% 11.9%

William Ruto 1.8% 2.1% 9.2% 6.0% 10.0% 3.1%

Ole Kiyapi 1.4% 3.0% 1.0%

George Saitoti 1.2% 0.8% 8.0% 9.0% 0.5%

Eugene Wamalwa 1.5% 0.5%

Martha Karua 11.2% 3.6% 1.5% 1.8% 6.0% 7.5% 2.0% 4.4%

Cyrus Jirongo

Mutava Musyimi 0.8% 9.0% 0.5%

Peter Kenneth 1.2% 3.1% 2.7% 4.0% 1.5% 24.5% 4.7%

Charity Ngilu 3.1%

Kalonzo Musyoka 9.5% 46.4% 50.4% 54.9% 14.0% 4.5% 6.0% 5.7%



45



Mandera County

Wajir County

Garissa County

Kisii County

Migori County

Kisumu County

Homa Bay County

Nyamira County

Siaya County

Raila Odinga 75.8% 68.3% 50.6% 24.1% 81.7% 83.2% 77.2% 63.2% 73.1%

Musalia Mudavadi 6.5% 6.1% 12.7% 10.3% 6.1% 1.6% 6.5% 2.6%

Uhuru Kenyatta 4.0% 3.7% 17.7% 13.1% 1.5% 1.6% 2.6% 1.0%

William Ruto 1.6% 3.7% 6.3% 7.6% 1.5% 0.8% 1.0%

Ole Kiyapi 1.3% 2.1% 1.5% 2.4%


Eugene Wamalwa 0.8% 5.5% 1.3%

Martha Karua 2.4% 8.5% 5.1% 6.2% 3.8% 1.6% 5.7% 6.6% 2.9%

Cyrus Jirongo

Mutava Musyimi 1.2%

Peter Kenneth 0.8% 0.8% 10.5%

Charity Ngilu 1.2% 0.8%

Kalonzo Musyoka 4.8% 3.7% 5.1% 9.0% 0.8% 2.6%

Raphael Tuju 0.8% 2.1% 1.5% 7.2% 1.6%


46



Nakuru County

Uasin Gishu

County Kericho County

Nandi County

Bomet County

Kajiado County

Laikipia County

Elgeyo Marakw

et County

Trans-Nzoia

County

Samburu

County Baringo County

Turkana County

Narok County

Raila Odinga 19.2% 26.1% 4.6% 9.2% 9.9% 18.4% 21.6% 20.8% 40.6% 24.0% 4.2% 43.1% 54.7%

Musalia Mudavadi 4.9% 14.8% 8.2% 2.2% 11.5% 2.0% 10.4% 20.8% 1.4% 2.8% 3.8%

Uhuru Kenyatta 16.3% 13.9% 9.2% 13.3% 3.3% 28.7% 47.1% 14.6% 2.8% 12.7% 7.3% 14.2%

William Ruto 5.4% 24.3% 72.4% 46.9% 60.4% 3.4% 25.0% 10.0% 60.6% 24.8% 7.5%

Ole Kiyapi 1.0% 0.9% 6.1% 3.3% 5.7% 6.0% 1.4% 1.8% 2.8%

George Saitoti 1.0% 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.9%

Eugene Wamalwa 0.5% 0.9% 5.9% 18.9% 2.8%

Martha Karua 5.4% 3.5% 4.6% 6.1% 1.1% 4.6% 5.9% 16.7% 3.8% 2.0% 5.6% 0.9% 2.8%

Cyrus Jirongo

Mutava Musyimi 0.5%

Peter Kenneth 6.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 2.1% 0.9% 1.4% 6.6%

Charity Ngilu 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 1.8%

Kalonzo Musyoka 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 6.6% 5.7% 2.0% 2.1% 0.9% 10.0% 7.3% 0.9%

Raphael Tuju 4.4% 1.7% 1.0% 3.3% 1.1% 0.9% 2.0% 0.9%


47



Kakamega Bungoma Vihiga Busia Raila Odinga 43.7% 36.6% 21.4% 46.0%

Musalia Mudavadi 19.7% 11.3% 70.0% 12.7%

Uhuru Kenyatta 1.9% 3.1% 3.2%

William Ruto 2.3% 3.1% 1.4% 4.8%

Ole Kiyapi 0.5% 1.6%


Eugene Wamalwa 0.9% 10.8%

Martha Karua 8.9% 7.7% 3.2%


Mutava Musyimi 3.2%

Peter Kenneth 1.4% 1.4%

Charity Ngilu 0.5% 1.4%

Kalonzo Musyoka 0.9%


Do you support the revival of tribal groupings such as GEMA, KAMATUSA etc

48



No idea/comme

nt25%

Yes13%

No62%

29.5

13.5

11.9

5.3

4.9

3.3

2.7

2.4

2.4

2

0 10 20 30 40

People will work together well & bring moreimprovement in the country/ bring unity'

Cohesion is enhanced amongtribes/reconciliation

They make politics grow

They can help bring development

They bargain for the welfare of our community

We should go back to traditions /embraceculture

The talk same points

Groups can be used to correct the first failures

They clearly mirrors the peoples suffering

They enhance a sense of belonging/right ofassociation

Reasons for No Frequency Percent Promote tribalism/ethnicity 1,894 61.1

Brings about disunity /brings violence/chaos 493 15.9

Create problems 89 2.9

They divide Kenya into groups and not a nation 74 2.4

Because it breeds ethnicity between communities 58 1.9

Their will bring hatred among communities 58 1.9

We are united/peace/Kenyans should promote unity 37 1.2

They bring tension in the country 29 0.9

They have no national vision 25 0.8

Can lead to 2007-2008 post election violence 21 0.7


49


13%

24%

10%

10%

5%

17%

11%

7%

69%

53%

65%

55%

68%

58%

74%

68%

18%

23%

26%

35%

27%

25%

14%

25%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Nairobi

Central

Coast

Eastern

North eastern

Rift Valley

Nyanza

Western

Yes No No idea/comment

Do you support the decision by Mariga and Oliech to quit playing for Harambee stars over unpaid allowances

50


Do you support the decision by Mariga and Oliech to quit playing for Harambee stars over unpaid allowances

No39%

Yes59%

No Idea2%

51


Thank you

Documents

Public Opinion Poll On The Socio- Economic And Political ... · Public Opinion Poll Methodology — Strategic Africa conducted country wide public opinion poll on the socio-economic