GEO-CAPEAtmospheric Science

Mission Implementation Analysis of Alternatives

FY13 Guidance Letter – Task 1

May 15, 2013

Introduction

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The Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission objective is to make measurements of atmospheric composition and ocean color

ESD acknowledged the impact of TEMPO on GEO-CAPE mission planning:“With the award of the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) instrument as the first Earth Venture Instrument (EVI-1), a partial change of direction will be needed for the GEO-CAPE activities, as the TEMPO instrument will likely achieve a significant portion of the GEO-CAPE measurement objectives.”

ESD guidance for FY13 GEO-CAPE studies included:“Define the GEO-CAPE atmospheric composition instrument suite in light of the defined science of the TEMPO instrument”

GEO-CAPE atmospheric composition instrument suite may be defined as TEMPO + a GEO-CAPE InfraRed Instrument (GCIRI)

Analysis of Alternatives Study

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This study explored alternatives for achieving all GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Science measurement objectives as defined in the STM, assuming TEMPO will achieve a significant fraction

• GEO-CAPE requires a set of concurrent UV-Vis-IR measurements at the same spatial and temporal sampling for a period of 3 years

• TEMPO provides a large fraction of this set of measurements

‒ A critical part of the set includes IR measurements not provided by TEMPO

‒ Ongoing TEMPO, GEO-CAPE, and ESTO activities are advancing the maturity of TEMPO’s planned UV-Vis 2-layer O3 product

The analysis of alternatives study objectives were to

• Assess remaining GEO-CAPE atmospheric science implementation architecture based on TEMPO and its expected performance

• Update GEO-CAPE atmospheric science implementation architecture including schedule options

• Coordinate with TEMPO team and ASWG

• Work with SEWG/ESTO on technology needs and recommendations

TEMPO Assumptions

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Assumptions regarding TEMPO used to identify candidate alternatives for a GEO-CAPE InfraRed instrument (GCIRI)

a) TEMPO begins making science measurements in 2019• Development and launch schedules are achieved as planned

b) The orbit location of TEMPO over mid U.S. enables full CONUS observations • Approximately the same GSD for both coasts; no significant differences

c) TEMPO makes all GEO-CAPE STM defined UV-Vis measurements• O3 (UV), O3 (Vis), HCHO, SO2, NO2, C2H2O2, AOD, AAOD, AI

d) TEMPO remains fully operational for its base period of operation (21 mo)• Negligible degradation in measurement capability• Commercial hosting services contract options for additional periods of

operations

GCIRI Criteria

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Criteria used to identify candidate alternatives for a GEO-CAPE InfraRed Instrument (GCIRI)

a) GCIRI makes some or all of the GEO-CAPE atmospheric measurements required in the Science Traceability Matrix (STM) that are not made by TEMPO

b) GCIRI + TEMPO measurements made at the same time to jointly address the measurement objectives and science questions defined in the GEO-CAPE STM

c) GCIRI is a passive optical instrument that measures spectrally resolved radiance in IR spectral bands from GEO

d) GCIRI can be accomplished within EV class cost and schedule constraints and Common Instrument Interface guidelines, as a commercially hosted payload like TEMPO

GCIRI Implementation Questions

Can TEMPO be leveraged to complete GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Science objectives at minimal cost?

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TEMPO

GCIRI

GEO Air Quality Mission Over Asia

GEO Air Quality Mission Over Europe

GEO-CAPE Air Quality Mission Over North America

WHY does GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Science require GCIRI measurements in addition to TEMPO measurements?

WHAT measurement capability must GCIRI have with respect to the defined science of the TEMPO instrument?

WHEN must GCIRI make concurrent observations of N. America with TEMPO?

WHERE in GEO must GCIRI be for geographic coverage compatibility?• Science return impact of TEMPO and GCIRI orbit locations

WHY: Science Rationale for GCIRI Measurements

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At a minimum, GCIRI measures CO vertical distribution (as recommended in the DS)to uniquely distinguish emissions, transformation, and long-range transport of pollution

• GEO-CAPE addresses 6 peer-reviewed science questions regarding the emission, chemical transformation, and transport of air pollutants in a changing climate

• The minimum set of measurements required to answer these questions, as recommended in the DS, is provided by TEMPO and GCIRI together

Emission: NO2, VOC, CO, aerosol

Transformation:O3 created from NO2 and VOC (HCHO is proxy for total VOC); CO and aerosol evolve

Transport and long-range impact: O3 , CO, aerosol

NO2, VOC, CO, aerosol

O3, NO2, HCHO, CO, aerosol

O3 , CO, aerosol

Image adapted from CCSP Strategic Plan (illustrated by P. Rekacewicz)

O3, CO, aerosol

WHAT: GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Science Measurement Capability

8GCIRI = a GEO-CAPE InfraRed Instrument

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Intercontinental Impact

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Average contribution to all Questions

TEMPO product

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• TEMPO+GCIRI together accomplish GEO-CAPE Atmosphere STM measurements

• GCIRI must provide a multi-layer CO product for minimum GEO-CAPE success

• GCIRI may provide all GEO-CAPE products requiring IR measurements

WHEN: GCIRI Mission Schedule Relative to TEMPO

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GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Science measurement objectives defined in the STM are to obtain the set of concurrent UV-Vis-IR measurements at the same spatial and temporal sampling for a period of 3 years

The notional GCIRI schedule below illustrates that 3 years of concurrent GCIRI and TEMPO measurements are possible if GCIRI development started in 2014

The longer the duration of concurrent GCIRI and TEMPO measurements, the greater the potential for completing all GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Science objectives and for improving understanding of air pollution around the globe

GEO-CAPE science objectives require that GCIRI measurements are concurrent with TEMPO. The international constellation of Air Quality missions extends the science from regional to global.

WHERE: Geographic Coverage Compatibility

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GCIRI and TEMPO orbit locations as close to 100o W as possible maximizes their science return• Provides similar viewing geometries and

ground sampling distances for both coasts of North America

Minimal orbital separation between GCIRI and TEMPO maximizes their science return• Provides similar viewing geometries and

ground sampling distances for any given latitude

Analysis determined that orbit locations between 80o W and 120o W are sufficient for GEO-CAPE products• GCIRI is not required to be in the same

location as TEMPO

Geographic coverage from 100o W

Geographic coverage from 120o W

Geographic coverage from 80o W

The large number of anticipated commercial GEO satellites over this longitude range provides adequate opportunities for GCIRI

GCIRI Implementation Findings

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WHY: GCIRI measurements capture critical high value GEO-CAPE species such as CO that are not measured by TEMPO

WHAT: GCIRI measurement capability alternativesa) TEMPO + GCIRI with SWIR-MWIR capability can meet 90-95% of

GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Science requirementsb) TEMPO + GCIRI with SWIR-MWIR-TIR capability can meet 100%

WHEN: Concurrent GCIRI - TEMPO mission alternativesa) Three years of concurrent observations completes GEO-CAPE

Atmosphere Science requirements

=> Depending on how soon GCIRI can be launched, at least one and possibly more extended-mission phases will be required for TEMPO

WHERE: GCIRI orbit location alternativesa) TEMPO and GCIRI can both accept positions from 80o W to 120o W with

100o W being optimum

=> No basis for discrimination of GCIRI alternatives; dropped from analysis

Based on these findings, the team assessed whether suitable GCIRI alternatives currently exist such that GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Science requirements can be

completed at minimal cost

Summary: GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Composition Instrument Suite

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In light of the defined science of TEMPO, the GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Composition Instrument Suite (ACIS) can be TEMPO + a GEO-CAPE InfraRed Instrument (GCIRI)

• The TEMPO mission will achieve a significant fraction of the GEO-CAPE atmospheric science measurement objectives

• A GEO-CAPE InfraRed Instrument (GCIRI) observing in IR spectral bands is required to measure the critical high value GEO-CAPE species such as CO which are not measured by TEMPO

• Concurrent TEMPO and GCIRI measurements are required to meet GEO-CAPE atmospheric science objectives regarding emissions, transport, mixing, and chemical transformation of trace gases and aerosols in a changing climate

• The science value of GEO-CAPE is extended from regional to global when TEMPO+GCIRI measurements are concurrent with the international constellation of Air Quality missions

The award of TEMPO presents the opportunity to complete the GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Science objectives at minimal cost by a timely start on a GCIRI, briefly outlined on the following slide

Alternatives for GCIRI Timely Start

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Starting GCIRI in time for it to fly during TEMPO’s lifetime would complete GEO-CAPE atmospheric science

Conceptually, GCIRI alternatives could be obtained from: • A future EV solicitation

‒ Selection NET FY14, launch NET 2021, after TEMPO Prime Mission is complete• A new AO (would require new mission budget line)

‒ GCIRI could probably not launch until several years after TEMPO Prime Mission• A new directed mission for immediate implementation

‒ May disrupt competition statistics• Previous EV proposals categorized “selectable”

Suitable alternatives exist for possible GCIRI timely start • HQ could select a previously competed GCIRI-relevant EV proposal

‒ 4 GCIRI-relevant proposals have been reviewed by ESD (one EV-2 and three EV-I)‒ 2 of the 4 proposals were rated selectable (EV-2 CHRONOS, EV-I GCPI) with no

major TMC weaknesses (no major technical, management, cost weaknesses)

At least 2 suitable alternatives currently exist for a timely start of GCIRI such that GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Science requirements can be completed at minimal cost

Existing Selectable Options for GCIRI

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EV-2: CHRONOS (Proposal # 11-EV2-0005)• The reviewed concept would meet GEO-CAPE science requirements for hourly

SWIR and MWIR measurements of 2-layer CO and column CH4 over North America

• Tailoring options‒ Fit within EV-I cost cap by omitting launch services from the original

“full-mission” proposal

EV-I-1: GCPI (Proposal # 12-EVI1/12-0014)• The reviewed concept would meet GEO-CAPE science requirements for hourly

SWIR measurements of column CH4 over North America

• Tailoring options‒ Omit NIR 760nm optical channel (optics, FPA, electronics, etc.) and extend

SWIR wavelength range to cover MWIR for making 2-layer CO measurements

‒ Substitute TIR for NIR 760nm optical channel to also obtain NH3 and additional O3 information

These proposals present attractive options for leveraging TEMPO to complete “Most” to “All” GEO-CAPE Atmosphere Science objectives at minimal cost

Summary

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The TEMPO mission will achieve a significant fraction of the GEO-CAPE atmospheric science measurement objectives

A GEO-CAPE InfraRed Instrument (GCIRI) observing in IR spectral bands is required to measure the critical high value GEO-CAPE species such as CO which are not measured by TEMPO

Concurrent TEMPO and GCIRI measurements are required to meet GEO-CAPE atmospheric science objectives

The science value of GEO-CAPE is extended from regional to global when TEMPO+GCIRI measurements are concurrent with the international constellation of Air Quality missions

Peer-reviewed concepts for a candidate GCIRI exist

Existing selectable EV proposals provide a mechanism for a timely start on GCIRI so that TEMPO and GCIRI together jointly complete the GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Science mission at minimal cost

BACK-UP CHARTS

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GCIRI Performance Parameters

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WHAT• GCIRI measurement capability that complements TEMPO

measurement capability in a way which provides the full suite of GEO-CAPE atmosphere measurements

WHEN• GCIRI mission concurrent with TEMPO to provide the

full suite of GEO-CAPE atmosphere measurements• GCIRI+TEMPO measurements concurrent with

international GEO constellation to provide near global GEO-CAPE atmosphere science

WHERE• GCIRI and TEMPO orbit locations to provide the

maximum geographic coverage compatibility

GCIRI observations

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

TEMPO observations

Overlap

GEO-CAPE

GCIRI

INTERNATIONAL

GEO

CONSTELLATION

TEMPO

OCEAN

Geographic coverage from 100o W

GEO-CAPE Atmosphere Composition Instrument Suite Summary

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In light of the defined science of TEMPO, the GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Composition Instrument Suite (ACIS) can be TEMPO + a GEO-CAPE InfraRed Instrument (GCIRI) which measures spectrally resolved radiance in IR spectral bands to provide critical GEO-CAPE species such as CO and CH4 which are not measured by TEMPO

GEO-

CAPE

ACISSpectralRegion

Species Rationale

TEMPO

UV

AerosolsSurface AQ, aerosol sources and transport, aerosol plume height, AOD to PM conversion, climate forcing

Vis

NIR

UVO3 Surface AQ, transport

Vis

UV HCHO VOC emissions, chemistry

UV SO2 SOx emissions, chemistry

Vis NO2 NOx emissions, chemistry

Vis CHOCHO VOC emissions, chemistry, aerosol formation

GCIRI

SWIRCO CO emission, transport

MWIR

SWIR CH4 CH4 emissions

TIR NH3 NH3 emissions

TIR O3 Surface AQ, transport

GEO-CAPE Instrument and Operational Risk Assessment

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GEO-CAPE mission design team conducted an instrument and operational risk assessment for commercially hosted payloads like TEMPO and GCIRI

16 candidate risks were considered (full info available in supplementary material)• 12 risks were accepted; on further discussion 4 were not found to be formal risks

L, CTrend

ID Approach Title

2, 3 1 M Lack of I & T Oversight

3, 3 2 M Environmental Testing Issues

3, 3 3 M Detector Performance Limitations

3, 2 4 M Multispectral Ozone Science Measurements

2, 2 5 M Science Data Rates

3, 4 6 M Pointing/Jitter Requirement

Instrument Risks

L, CTrend

ID Approach Title

3, 3 8 M Contamination

3, 2 9 M Field-of-View Impingement

3, 3 10 M Calibration

2, 3 14 M Launch and/or Flight Thermal Affects

2, 3 15 M Launch Loads

1, 3 16 M Operations

Operational Risks

4 2,3 6

5 1 14,15

9 8,10

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Most risks are low and are being mitigated by the TEMPO development

GEO-CAPE Atmospheric Science Questions

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As published in Fishman, J., and Coauthors, 2012: The United States' Next Generation of Atmospheric Composition and Coastal Ecosystem Measurements: NASA's Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) Mission. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1547–1566. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00201.1

1. What are the temporal and spatial variations of emissions of gases and aerosols important for air quality and climate?

2. How do physical, chemical, and dynamical processes determine tropospheric composition and air quality over scales ranging from urban to continental, diurnally to seasonally?

3. How does air pollution drive climate forcing and how does climate change affect air quality on a continental scale?

4. How can observations from space improve air quality forecasts and assessments for societal benefit?

5. How does intercontinental transport affect air quality?

6. How do episodic events, such as wild fires, dust outbreaks, and volcanic eruptions, affect atmospheric composition and air quality?