LAND USE, CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABILITY

LECTURE 1

Geography 415: Spring 2012

Office hours:

Note - Scheduling meetings is highly recommended

Dr. Ellicott: 2:00 – 3:00 Tues and Thurs (after class) in either 209 Hartwick or 1119 LeFrak.

Kanna Siripurapu: 12:00 – 2:00 Wednesdays in 2176 LeFrak

To see Evan or Kanna at any other please email one of us.

Course Objectives

Provide an understanding of Land Cover - Land Use Change and Climate Change, their causes and impacts, the relationships between them, and the implications for Sustainability

Encourage critical reading – articles, papers, documents

Course Approach – lectures, critical reading, discussion, papers, quizzes, and exams.

Grading

Quiz #1 – 10% Assignment #1 – 20% Mid-term exam – 20% Quiz #2 – 10% Assignment #2 – 20% Final exam – 20% Class discussion and participation – X%

70 – 74 = C75 – 79 = C+80 – 84 = B85 – 89 = B+90 – 94 = A95 – 100 = A+

Course Guidelines

Laptops Cell Phones

Participation

Absence

Broad Course Outline

Part 1. Global Megatrends affecting Land Use and Climate Change – quiz & paper

Part 2. Climate Change > mid-term exam Part 3. Land Use Change > quiz & paper Part 4. The Sustainability Challenge Final exam (all class content)

Reading assignments will be given and papers to be read will be posted on Blackboard (ELMS)

AG RES ECON2%

ARCH30%

COM SCI4%

ECON4%

ENSP GLOBAL2%

ENSP LAND14%ENSP MARINE

6%

ENSP RESTORE2%

ENSP8%

GEOG GIS2%

GEOG18%

IND STUDY2%

PLANT SCI2%

SOCIOLOGY2%

SPANISH2%

Major

AGNR14%

ARCH28%

ARHU2%

BSOS46%

CMNS4%

GRAD4%

UGST2%

College

14%

32%50%

2% 2%Class

Sophmore

Junior

Senior

Grad

Other

Please – no “senioritis”

2%

4%

18%

38%

36%

2%GPA

below 2.0

2.0 - 2.49

2.5 - 2.99

3.0 - 3.49

3.5 and above

Gauging Your Knowledge

Current atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm)?

a) 292 b) 315 c) 392

What was the preindustrial concentration? a) 227 b) 278 c) 309

What does ppm mean anyway? What ENSO phase are we in? What is an Order of Magnitude?

a) n2 b) b) 10n c) n10

What is 2σ in terms of variation from the mean?a) 99% b) 68% c) 95%

What is our current global population (approximately) ?

a) 3 million b) 5 billion c) 7 billion

Terms to Know

Albedo Radiative Forcing Feedback Teleconnections Global Warming Potential CO2 equivalent R and R2

El Nino Southern Oscillation

Headlines At Last, Nations

Agree To Landmark Climate Deal (COP17, Durban)

Mid-Winter 2012 Temperature Update: Heat Records Crushing Cold Records by Over 6 to 1 – Capital Climate

Feeding The World Gets Short Shrift In Climate Change Debate – NPR

Mattel announces sustainable sourcing principles

Geoengineered Food? Climate Fix Could Boost Crop Yields, But With Risks – NPR

Op-Ed: The Verdict Is In On Climate Change – NPR Merchants of Doubt:

How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth About Climate Change; Naomi Oreskes & Erik Conway

Climate Change

What is the cause? How do we know? What is the Keeling

Curve? What’s the #1

GHG? What is global

warming potential? What can we do?

Climate Change Definitions

Weather versus Climate? Weather is dynamic, variable, and difficult to predict

(stochastic) Climate is a function of long term weather means (30 years)

Climate is predictable because it is dependent on features of Earth (latitude, shape, orbit, etc.)

Underlying Climate Variability – various oscillations Inter-annual Variability (ENSO) Decadal to Centennial Changes (PDO) Arctic Oscillation (December 2009 – extreme negative phase)

Anthropogenic ‘Enhanced’ Greenhouse effect (v. natural greenhouse effect) > Global Warming > Climate Change Causes Prediction Impacts and Assessments Mitigation Adaptation Vulnerability and Resilience

Climate Change

Why the saw tooth pattern?

Climate Change

LCLUC

LCLUC Definitions Land Cover – what we observe – vegetation, bare soil,

buildings…

Land Use – the use to which the land is put – agriculture (mechanized or subsistence), clear cutting, selective logging, re/afforestation, mining, recreation, conservation A piece of land may have multiple uses at one time

Changes in Land Cover – change in cover type – forest to pasture, cropland to woodland, woodland to suburban, agriculture to urban), change in characteristics (structure, degradation - change in productivity, species composition) Disturbance - change followed by recovery (fire, logging,

wind throw) Changes in Land Use – intensification, extensification,

abandonment Distinguish between Natural Changes in Land Cover – ecosystem succession, climate

change (long term change, extreme events, climate variability ) Anthropogenic Changes – human induced changes

Figure 20.14

Bali

Sustainability Striving for a balance between economics, the

environment and equity Economic growth without environmental degradation Maintaining the provision of ecosystems goods and services

World Commission on Environment and Development: Brundtland Report (1987) “Our Common Future” Sustainable development must ensure that it meets the

needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs

Definitions vary on What is to be sustained (life support systems, natural

resources, biodiversity?) What is to be developed (economy, life expectancy, society)? The types of links that should hold between entities to be

sustained and developed, The extent of the future envisioned (25 years, forever)?

1999 NRC Report – Our Common Journey

The primary goals of a transition to sustainability over the next two generations should be: To meet the needs of a much larger but stabilizing

human population To sustain the life support systems of the planet

and To substantially reduce hunger and poverty

Priorities for Research Developing a research agenda of sustainability

science A research framework that integrates global and local

perspectives to shape a ‘place-based’ understanding of the interactions between society and environment…..

Required are significant advances in basic knowledge in the social capacity and technological capabilities, and the political will to turn knowledge and know how into action

In 2002, the Journal of Climate published an astonishing proposition: that the great droughts which had devastated the Sahel region of Africa had been caused in part by sulfate pollution in Europe and North America. Our smoke, the paper suggested, was partly responsible for the famines which killed hundreds of thousands of people in the 1970s and 1980s

Reading Before Tuesday

Read the 2 Articles Posted on Blackboard Be prepared to discuss these in class

Thurs.