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GEOGRAPHY – A CHANGE IN DIRECTION
2001 Census Debriefing Seminar 10 April, 2006
Geography - Discussion
Steve TurnerTees Valley Joint Strategy Unit
OUTLINE
• 2001 – OAs, SOAs
• 2011 – proposed stability principle
• Way Forward
LOCAL AUTHORITIES AND PARTNERS
Need for a great deal of detailed information onunemployment, low income, education, health, crime, etc
…for various sets of neighbourhoods …..
M’bro
NDC
Sure Start
Comm Strat (old n’hoods)
New n’hoods
New HMR
NEEDS FOR GEOGRAPHY
• Several sets of boundaries
• Each generally follows ‘natural’ boundaries – blocks of housing
• Each can alter as needs evolve
OAs
SOAs
New HMR, SOAs
THORNABY
FEATURES OF OAs
• Strange shapes, not corresponding to ‘natural’ boundaries
• Divide communities
• Join separate communities
A RESULT
Awkward OA/SOA boundaries mean that, when reworking data, forming data for neighbourhoods ……
…… generally, it takes more time and produces less accurate information
CENTRAL PROBLEM
Essentially, the unhelpful and bizarre OA boundaries result from being based on postcodes
EXTENSION OF PURPOSE
OAs’ original purpose, i.e. for Census, grew substantially …
• Neighbourhood Statistics
• SOAs
• ODPM interest ….
• …. Index of Multiple Deprivation
• …. Neighbourhood Renewal Fund
LOCAL STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS
Comments:
• SOA boundaries don’t make sense
• Difficult to identify with
• Erratic boundaries make it more difficult to deliver services in targeting improvements
TOWARDS 2011 –THE STABILITY PRINCIPLE?
Principle of stability of OA/SOA boundaries past 2011:
• past 2011
• past 2021?
• past 2031??
• ….. for ever???
NEEDS
Fundamentally, local authorities need the right data for the right areas for their needs at that time.
Thus:-
• Data needs will change
• Geography needs will change
GEOGRAPHY NEEDS
• Longer term stability suggests inflexibility• Inflexible geography suggests not meeting
changing needs• ….. LAs’ ability to follow an evidence-based
approach deteriorates
(…. in 2006, would we want to work with boundaries defined in 1981?)
UNATTAINABLE IN PRACTICE - 1
In practical terms, a stable geography is not attainable, especially at neighbourhood level.
Data will change by 2011 because:• Definitions of data will change• Census response rates will change• Many OAs will change in nature and character
UNATTAINABLE IN PRACTICE - 2
Need to redraw boundaries:• Housing development makes many OAs change
significantly - could be over 20% by 2011• OAs may need to change to accommodate new
disclosure control policies
…all these factors (and others) would make comparisons less meaningful
SUMMARISING
• Change will happen, needs will alter
• Stability would lock us into inflexibility
• OAs and SOAs based on postcodes do not follow ‘natural’ boundaries
WAY FORWARD
• Purpose
• Flexibility
• Statistical Disclosure Control
PURPOSE
A full discussion of what we need from geography.
For example:-• Looks sensible • Helps produce good data• Opportunity for local consultation• Allows for various sources - not just the Census• Flexibility to help monitor change
FLEXIBILITY
A geography:
• Based on individual addresses
• Promotes recasting of data for different geographies
• Nature of needs suggests boundaries should follow ‘blocks’
STATISTICAL DISCLOSURE CONTROL
• Too tight a constraint; appears inflexible• Danger of becoming locked into boundaries that
are not fit for purpose
Need for SDC that recognises and balances both:-• The rights of the individual• The needs of the local data user
Sadberge