Getting the Most Out of the Air Cargo System€¦ · · 2014-05-08* Revenue tonne-kilometers World air cargo traffic has grown 5.2% per year since 1980

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Tom Crabtree Regional Director, Marketing Boeing Commercial Airplanes

08 May 2014

Getting the Most Out of the Air Cargo System


3 billion passengers…44 million tons of air cargo… ..20,000 airport pairs


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Containerized cargoNon-containerized dry cargoMain bulk commoditiesTanker cargo

Billions of metric tons loaded - seaborne freight only

World seaborne traffic moves ~90% of all freight*; air cargo moves ~1/3 of goods in terms of value

Sources: UNCTAD, Fearnleys, Clarkson Research Services * excludes intra-EU trade..

Air cargo moves a very small portion of total freight weight , but a significant portion of goods by value


* Revenue tonne-kilometers

World air cargo traffic has grown 5.2% per year since 1980

Air cargo traffic has slowed to about 1% growth per year since 2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

RTK

*s (b

illio

ns)


Slow trade and air cargo growth mostly driven by weak demand growth

Very deep recession followed by weak recovery in developed economies Trade growth also slowed in early 1990s and 2000s

after recessions

Protectionist measures have increased but their impact is often overstated Very few countries have become more “closed” e.g.

Argentina, Venezuela, Ecuador, Egypt

Benefits from trade liberalization not exhausted Bali package signed; TPP & TTIP possible

Supply chains are not becoming less global No evidence of U.S. manufacturing renaissance

Trade patterns becoming more complex

Trade forecast for “addressable market” is 5% through 2030 per IHS Economics

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Merchandise exports %GDP

Manufacturing shipments as a % of GDP

02468

101214161820

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


The air cargo market grew about 6% in March 2014

Mon

thly

Per

cent

age

Cha

nge

over

Prio

r Yea

r World air cargo traffic growth moving toward trend

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%Mo. % Change - History12-Mo. Avg. History

3.6%

Sources: IATA Carrier Tracker (industry international scheduled freight) and A4A US domestic cargo traffic.

-0.7%


62% 62% 62% 61% 61% 60% 57% 59% 58% 56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Freighter share of revenue tonne-kilometers

More than half of air cargo traffic is carried on freighters


Freighter service advantages over passenger belly Cargo focus and control

Timing and routing

Capacity (volume, weight, hazmat & dimensional)

Handling location and ramp proximity

Reliability and predictability

Freighters will remain the leading cargo capacity provider


20-year forecast: strong long-term growth

3.2% GDP

5.0% Traffic (RPK)

5.0% Cargo (RTK)

2012 to 2032

Passengers 4.1%


940

210 380

640

130

New freighter demand -- 850 new, 1,450 converted

2013 to 2032 Freighters

Delivery units

2012 Freighters

1,730

2032 Freighters 2,810

Share of fleet

Large >80 tonnes

Medium 40 to 80 tonnes

Standard <45 tonnes

2,300

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Converted


Keys to a successful air cargo operation A base of operations located in the middle of multiple growing trade lanes The ability to feed to and “de-feed” passenger bellies and freighters:

multi-modal connectivity to both domestic and international flows a reliable truck network – where roads exist!

A dedicated sales and marketing staff Industry presence: press, advertising, relationships with shippers & forwarders Timely and reliable market information: trade & traffic data, capacity data, economic and industrial forecast information Reliable aircraft with the lowest per-tonne costs.


Slow trade & air cargo growth has been mostly driven by weak demand growth

World air cargo traffic is now recovering toward trend growth

Freighters will continue to carry the majority of air cargo traffic

Successful cargo operations require investment in information, personnel, and equipment

Things to remember

Presenter

Presentation Notes


For more information, please visit our market forecast websites:

Current Market Outlook www.boeing.com/cmo

World Air Cargo Forecast

www.boeing.com/commercial/cargo

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Getting the Most Out of the Air Cargo System€¦ · · 2014-05-08* Revenue tonne-kilometers World air cargo traffic has grown 5.2% per year since 1980