Global aims -> Policies in regions

1Challenge the future

Global aims ->Policies in regions

Patricia Osseweijer21 June 2013

[email protected]


maisloof bagasse

The Petrochemical Period: 1900 - ?

• focus on quality & safety• centralised production

• multinationals• patent protected• few big owners


Biobased: -focus on economic feasibility & sustainability

-decentralised production-role for small owners

-different economy of scale?


Challenges

• Climate Change• Growing population• Depletion of rare

resources• Loss of biodiversity• Increasing waste

• … and local development!


Electric cars the solution?


We need

Or?


• Global drivers for innovation • Focus on economy & environmental sustainability

• Society versus industry and policy: public debates

• Importance of integral assessment

• Importance showing local social development

• Importance to connect social sciences to tech sciences


Cramer criteria for sustainability

6 Themes:

•Greenhouse gas emissions; •Competition with food and other local applications; •Biodiversity; •Environment; •Prosperity; and •Social Well-being

Ismail, M., & Rossi, A. 2010. A Compilation of Bioenergy Sustainability Initiatives.

Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO)

Measurable standards & non-measurable general

concepts


We need policies to implement sustainable biofuels

Effective policies depend on public and stakeholder support

Conclusions (2)


Perceptions: Biofuels causing hunger?


Causal relations?Food prices, climate linked to civil conflicts

Source: Hsiang et al., Nature 2011


Major societal debates*

• Biofuels versus food

• Sustainability of biofuels and bio-energy

• Marketisation and commodification of nature (Nature Inc. -- is nature for sale?)

• Scale debate (economy of scale vs. ‘small is beautiful’)

• Precautionary principles vs. learning by doing

• Land, water, resource grabbing -- neo-colonisation debate

* F. Mukhtarov, 2012 (forthcoming)


In public debates:

Rational quantified data on environmental impact = answer emotional concerns

What is good?

•Moral concepts

•Cultural differences

•Public emotions

Policies and support


From debates: Four key ethical concepts

•Sustainability• What is sustainable?

•Trust and confidence• Who to trust and who takes initiative?

•Naturalness• Value of nature and ‘natural ingredients’

•Just distribution• Is it fair and does it give value to all?


Global implementation of sustainable bioeconomy requires

Strong policiesSupported by aligned non-conflicting regulations

Based on better predictive models and cascade useIncreased certainty in models: technological change and 2nd generation, yields, R&D down (last decade), learning effects, public acceptance including for example GMOs

Operationalisation of sustainability Environmental, social and economic

Public and stakeholder agreementIdentifying common grounds

Effective education, communication & impact evaluation

Understanding worldviews and emotions

Summary



Macro-economic studies indicate*:

With current oil price biofuels not competitive (except Brazil?)

Shale gas and economic situation is challenging this even further

Depends strongly on fossil price and biofuel policies

Volume dependent on policies/directives, such as subsidies for fossils and EU directive

Cascade model for efficient use biomass more competitive and sustainable! But requires novel collaborations and level playing field

When economic feasible for large demands: than effect on food price!

* Hans van Meijl, LEI-WUR


Sustainability is complex

•Durable, biodegradable, environmentally friendly, fair, non-GM, organic, economically viable, natural, …

Both: measurable specific standards AND unmeasurable general

concepts


Sustainable development

• Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (Brundlandt definition, 1987)

• Looking for a balance between what one desires and what is possible, between human activity and the carrying capacity of the system “Earth” and the repairing capacity of this system

(VN World Commission on Sustainable Development, 1987)


Social & Environmental: A safe and just space for humanity

Oxfam, 2012


Three components of sustainability

•Environment (planet)

•Economics (profit)

•Social aspects (people)


Outline

• What is ‘sustainability’?

• Factors of sustainability and its measurement

• Reporting sustainability

• Importance of sustainability proposition

• Elements of a successful pitch


9 principles1. GHG balance of production chain and application of biomass must be positive;

2. Biomass production must not be at expense of important carbon sinks in vegetation and soil;

3. Production of biomass for energy must not endanger food supply and local biomass

applications (energy supply, medicines and building materials);

4. Biomass production must not affect protected or vulnerable biodiversity and will, where

possible, have to strengthen biodiversity;

5. In production and processing of biomass soil and soil quality are retained or improved;

6. In production and processing of biomass ground and surface water must not be depleted and

water quality must be maintained or improved;

7. In production and processing of biomass air quality must be maintained or improved;

8. Production of biomass must contribute towards local prosperity; and

9. Production of biomass must contribute towards social well-being of employees and local

population.

ⱱ


Environment

• Life Cycle Assessment only gives limited picture and is as good as the figures that are put in! See Blackboard and http://www.rivm.nl/Onderwerpen/Onderwerpen/L/Life_Cycle_Assessment_LCA/LCA/

Hoe_werkt_LCA

• Issues in environmental impact assessment:• Parameters under discussion related to biorenewable feedstocks:

• Calculation for different crops: context dependent (soil/efficiency)

• Calculation for indirect land use changes

• Measurement for biodiversity

• Measurement for water foot print

• Competing claims for land and resources



… yet this should not delay development and implementation of proactive biorenewables strategies

don’t expect

conse

nsus…

don’t expect

conse

nsus…

Source: W. Sinke (ECN)

predicted global fossil CO2 emissions

Information* is incomplete and uncertain …Information* is incomplete and uncertain …

* data and scenario’s


Economics (next lecture)

• Calculation of NPV and IRR

• Issues in economic impact assessment:• Effect of policies

• Effect of markets, new usage of resources

• Effect of alternatives (cheap shale gas!)

• Effect of time scales for investment and learning effects

• Effect of context: logistics!

• Effect of collaboration in the chain


Social factors

• Employment (along the whole chain)• Food security (local versus global effects)• Social well being (local communities and national increase)

Issues in social impact assessment:• Food prices: speculation? land use? local storage facilities?

• Employment: availability of training & education

• Cultural issues: traditions, practises, motivation for change!

• Ethical issues: moral frameworks (worldviews), acceptance of tech

applications, equity in distribution of wealth

• Infrastructure: availability of organisation structures such as cooperatives

• Governance: communication, perception, involvement, trust


Landgrab


Stakeholder’s visual social representations of a Bio-Based Economy

Represented in themata of:SustainabilityFirst generation biofuelsProcess and its products Consequences

Emotionally objectified:+ Hope, enthusiasm, compassion- Fear, anger, frustrationRepresentation depends on stakeholder and context

‘aim to make something unfamiliar familiar even unfamiliarity itself’ (Moscovici 1984)

Sleenhoff, S. & P. Osseweijer (2013) What is a bio-based economy? A study of visual social representations of a bio-based economy (forthcoming)


Outline







Top 5 indicators for sustainability in industry *

* Olenyi, Based on interviews, comparative study. Forthcoming


Preliminary results*, certification and labelling

•Of the low percentage of certified biofuels, social criteria play a minor role

•Industry representative priorities on environmental, not social aspects

•Sustainability attitudes and certification might follow media hypes and stakeholder pressure instead of scientific priorities (e.g. biodiversity seems underrepresented)

* S. Olenyi, Based on interviews and public survey, comparative study. Forthcoming


Reporting sustainability

• https://www.globalreporting.org/resourcelibrary/G3.1-Quick-Reference-Sheet.pdf

• 50 criteria with indicators on how to measure

35Challenge the future98-07/

36Challenge the future98-07/


Outline







Sustainability: a major player?

• Sustainability is a complex issue• High level of uncertainty and difficult to measure

• Hence: Perceptions can be major show-stopper• Examples are: Barendrecht CO2 storage and discussion

on biofuels blending rates in biofuels

• Risk of innovation and investment!

• Trust is a large component


Example from NGO Oxfam Novib

Practice:

•Sustainability criteria, such as Cramer criteria not used by politicians and companies

•Agreements incl RSB only marginally implemented

•Volume of advanced (2nd generation) biofuels disappointing

•Climate effect worse than expected

ACTION!

Oxfam Novib: started campaign* “EU Biofuel target could feed 127 M people!”

* http://www.oxfam.com


Challenges on policies: public support


What do we know about support? Microsociety 2030: a public qualititative study (NL)

* Van der Veen et al., My2030s, Burgers over de Biobased Economy, 2013


Conclusions

•Complex science•High level of uncertainty & predictability•Social indicators are important•Science and techno fixes not always trusted•Different worldviews > define support•Different emotions > define perceptions

Insight can:stimulate self-reflexivity among stakeholdersPave way to common support facilitate more reflexive policy-making


Outline







Criteria of sustainability•Production/use of resources;+ what are the consequences/replacements?

•Sustainability of the process

•Employment

•Quality

•Costs

•Safety, in production and use

•Moral acceptability

•Public Acceptance


Criteria of sustainability•Sustainability of the process

Raw materials: production, soil quality, N/P balances, GHG, …

CO2, waste streams and their re-use, water, energy, transport,…

Products: transport, storage, use, end-of-life/recycling,…


See A. Straathof; BPI, Oct 2012

L. Luo, E. van der Voet en G. Huppes, Renewable and Sustainable Energy

Reviews, 13 (2009) 1613-1619

Blackbaord


And… beyond Life Cycle Assessment

http://www.ecospheres.com/ecostep.html


But: not so easy

• Competing claims

• Missing facts

• Perceptions and myths

and…


Back to economics!


Understanding is importantand marketing is key!

• Make an overall proposition on sustainability• Calculate as best as possible• Integrate all arguments in ‘design proposition’• Present it in an understandable way


Include in your design• Evaluation of impact assessment

Include: • Economic proposition• Environmental proposition• Social proposition

Evaluate the relevant importance your design makes for each of the three aspects (focus on the key changers!)

Support this with arguments (and calculations!). The better your argument and the better the quality of your calculations, the higher the trust!

Make sure you have taken notice of unacceptable conditions (such as safety!)


Conclusions

• Design can and should be sustainable, not more expensive

• Sustainability should be made justifiable, the process calculated as well as possible, but the overall sustainability can not be measured!

• Trust-confidence in your proposition is key!

[email protected]

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Global aims -> Policies in regions