Global Climate Change - Ecology and Evolutionary Biologyeebweb.arizona.edu/courses/Ecol406R_506R/406_lect21_GlobalWarming_2004... · 1 Lecture 21, 02 November 2004 Global Climate

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Lecture 21, 02 November 2004Global Climate Change

Conservation BiologyECOL 406R/506R

University of ArizonaFall 2004

Kevin BonineKathy Gerst

Brief Quiz:

1. One of the articles (Hayhoe et al. 2004) assigned for today focused on one state in the US. What state?

2. In the above-referenced article, how many climate models were analyzed? How many different future CO2 levels?

3. The other article (Walther et al. 2002) for today was generally about what?

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1. Global Climate Change-Hayhoe et al. 2004-Walther et al. 2002

-Announcements-VOTE!-Landscape Connectivity Wed 1215

-Thank YousC. ElenesAquatic Conservation Presentations

What happens to the solar radiation that reaches the earth?

Miller, 2003

-1 billionth solar output

-visible and ultraviolet (UV)

-greenhouse gases(water vapor, CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone)

-autotrophs/primary productivty

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Greenhouse Effect- earth’s surface absorbs or reflects- reflected either into space or absorbed by gases- greenhouse gases heat up and emit infrared radiation

Miller, 2003

Global Warming

Miller, 2003

[CO2] higher than in past 420,000 years

20th Century hottest in last 10

Temperature has increased 0.5 C since 1950

Since 1861, 9 of the 10 warmest years occurred since 1990

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Selected Greenhouse Gases

• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)– Source: Fossil fuel burning, deforestation

Anthropogenic increase: 30%Average atmospheric residence time: 500 years

Methane (CH4)– Source: Rice cultivation, cattle & sheep ranching, decay

from landfills, mining Anthropogenic increase: 145%Average atmospheric residence time: 7-10 years

Nitrous oxide (N2O)– Source: Industry and agriculture (fertilizers)

Anthropogenic increase: 15%Average atmospheric residence time: 140-190 years

http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/gsfc/service/gallery/fact_sheets/earthsci/green.htm

atmospheric CO2 up 25% since 1800

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Miller, 2003

We’re Goingto Get Burned(rate of change)

Ice capsGlaciersMigrationsFloodsDroughts

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Miller, 2003

Beech Tree Range

- poles will heat up relatively faster

For each 1 degree C change:- climate belts will shift toward the poles by 100-150 km

AZDStar 25 Jan 2004

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Walther et al. 2002Ecological Responses to Recent Climate Change

Phenologytimingfrost-free daysvariability

Range Shifts1. temperature2. precipitation-latitude and altitude

Spatial Heterogeneity

Walther et al. 2002, Fig. 1

Degree C per decade

Percent change in precipitation

MORE

Warmer

(Spatial heterogeneity)


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Walther et al. 2002Ecological Responses to Recent Climate Change

Community Changes-Plant structure

animal community-Bleaching-Antarctic

Ecosystem Changes-Recruitment-Trophic interactions

Synergistic Effects(cod, coral)


Switzerland

Hayhoe et al. 2004Emissions and climate change in California

-Two models sensitive (PCM), less sensitive (HadCM3)

-Two CO2 values550ppm, 970ppm

Dismissed by one expert as “another piece of climate alarmism”

(NYTimes 17 Aug 2004)

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Hayhoe et al. 2004Emissions and climate change in California

1. Temperature (increase 1.5 – 9.0 C)

2. Precipitation (mostly decrease)

3. Heat Index (Hot in L.A. = more deaths)

4. Snowpack, Runoff, Water Reserves (trade-off)

5. Agriculture (wine grapes, milk)

The Treasures within… The Treasures within… Unanticipated Uses Unanticipated Uses

of Biological Collections of Biological Collections

Lucinda Lucinda McDadeMcDadeAcademy of Natural Sciences,Academy of Natural Sciences,

PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia

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PH: Fatally flawed storage system installed, late 70sPH: Fatally flawed storage system installed, late 70s

Most of herbarium cabinets went to NYBGMost of herbarium cabinets went to NYBG

Installation complete (<3 Installation complete (<3 mosmos))

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Cones, fruits, etc.Cones, fruits, etc.((PandanaceaePandanaceae))

CryptogamsCryptogams

Why bother?Why bother?

Specimens play major role in making Specimens play major role in making systematics repeatablesystematics repeatable

and thus an empirical scienceand thus an empirical science

True whether True whether floristicsfloristics, ,

revisionaryrevisionary work, work, higher level higher level phylogeneticsphylogenetics

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Also: ecology, population Also: ecology, population biologybiology

Correct identification & Correct identification & vouchering essential part of vouchering essential part of

documenting researchdocumenting research

Why bother?Why bother?

not systematic biologynot systematic biology

not identificationnot identification

not geographic distributionsnot geographic distributions

not conservation biologynot conservation biology

(these all vital…. but anticipated)(these all vital…. but anticipated)

Unanticipated uses Unanticipated uses of Museum Specimensof Museum Specimens

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2. DNA 2. DNA (almost conventional)(almost conventional)

3. Historical Environmental Conditions3. Historical Environmental ConditionsAmino Acid Amino Acid EnantiomersEnantiomers

Leaf Leaf StomatalStomatal DensityDensityCarbon Isotope RatiosCarbon Isotope Ratios

1. 1. PhenologyPhenology


1. Phenology


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ZomleferZomlefer, Whitten, , Whitten, Williams & JuddWilliams & Judd

(in progress)(in progress)SchoenocaulonSchoenocaulon((MelanthiaceaeMelanthiaceae))

2. DNA2. DNA

Collected 1876!Collected 1876!

DNA remarkably intactDNA remarkably intact(associated with (associated with xerophyticxerophytic habit?)habit?)

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ZomleferZomlefer, Whitten, , Whitten, Williams & JuddWilliams & Judd

(in progress)(in progress)SchoenocaulonSchoenocaulon((MelanthiaceaeMelanthiaceae))

PH specimenPH specimen


1. 1. PhenologyPhenology

(not identification)(not identification)

3. Historical Environmental Conditions3. Historical Environmental ConditionsAmino Acid Amino Acid EnantiomersEnantiomers

Leaf Leaf StomatalStomatal DensityDensityCarbon Isotope RatiosCarbon Isotope Ratios


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3. Historical Environmental Conditions3. Historical Environmental ConditionsLeaf Leaf StomatalStomatal DensityDensity

BeerlingBeerling and and ChalonerChaloner 1993 1993 (Annals of Botany)(Annals of Botany)


StomatesStomates on Surface of Leaveson Surface of Leaves

xx--sectionsection

Leaf surfaceLeaf surface

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Density of Density of StomatesStomateswith atmospheric COwith atmospheric CO22

>3000 years of Olive leaves>3000 years of Olive leaves((OleaOlea europeaeuropea))

1300 BC to present1300 BC to present

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1327 BC pre-332 BC 1818 AD 1978 AD Present

Series1

13271327B.C.B.C.

350350B.C.B.C.

A.D.A.D.18181818

A.D.A.D.19781978 PresentPresent

800800

500500

Stom

ates

/ mm

2

Date

Funeral WreathsFuneral WreathsKing King Tut’sTut’s TombTomb

Herbarium, KewHerbarium, Kew

IndustrialIndustrialRevolutionRevolutionBeerlingBeerling and and ChalonerChaloner 1993 1993

(Annals of Botany)(Annals of Botany)

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Black Guillemots,Black Guillemots,Long term study (1972Long term study (1972--present) present)

George George DivokyDivoky

3. Historical Environmental Conditions3. Historical Environmental ConditionsCarbon Isotope RatiosCarbon Isotope Ratios


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Cooper Island

Divoky’sDivoky’s 25+ year study shows:25+ year study shows:Birds arrive at nesting site two weeks earlier nowBirds arrive at nesting site two weeks earlier now

Laying eggs 10 days earlierLaying eggs 10 days earlier

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Because guillemots feed at edge of Because guillemots feed at edge of pack ice in winterpack ice in winter

Their bodies should reflectTheir bodies should reflectthe location of that pack icethe location of that pack ice

Island snow free for 80+ days Island snow free for 80+ days only beginning in 70sonly beginning in 70s

Results led to examination of causesResults led to examination of causes

***climate change******climate change***

Other ways birds might document climate change?Other ways birds might document climate change?

Specifically:Specifically:More southerly seas more productive More southerly seas more productive

Translates to higher C13:C12 ratioTranslates to higher C13:C12 ratio

Therefore: Therefore: If pack ice (and birds) reduced If pack ice (and birds) reduced

in southerly expansion over timein southerly expansion over time

Detectable in C13:C12 in birdsDetectable in C13:C12 in birds(you are what you eat)(you are what you eat)

C13:C12 should decrease with timeC13:C12 should decrease with time……where to find really old birds?where to find really old birds?

(Not just old but DATED)(Not just old but DATED)

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PH Bird Collection: PH Bird Collection: Second oldest and fifth largest in the USSecond oldest and fifth largest in the US

Collection ManagerCollection ManagerNateNate RiceRice

18921892

δ13C in Black Guillemots1898-2000

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050YEAR

-20

-19

-18

-17

-16

-15

δ13 C

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Supports hypothesis that birds feeding Supports hypothesis that birds feeding farther south 100 yrs agofarther south 100 yrs ago

Consistent with / extends Consistent with / extends shorter term documentation shorter term documentation

of reduced extent of winter iceof reduced extent of winter ice

Also likely exacerbated by increase in atmospheric CO2Also likely exacerbated by increase in atmospheric CO2Burning fossil fuel adds C12>C13Burning fossil fuel adds C12>C13

DivokyDivoky continuing project….continuing project….Latest Development: Latest Development:

Pack ice retreating farther to North in summerPack ice retreating farther to North in summer(away from island)(away from island)

3. Other Chemical Constituents3. Other Chemical ConstituentsCarbon Isotope RatiosCarbon Isotope Ratios

PH has essentially all of PH has essentially all of MerriweatherMerriweather Lewis’Lewis’plant specimensplant specimens

Collected 1804Collected 1804--1806, Lewis & Clark Expedition1806, Lewis & Clark Expedition

Remarkable series of events brought them to PHRemarkable series of events brought them to PH(see web site)(see web site)


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PH has essentially all Lewis & Clark plant specimensPH has essentially all Lewis & Clark plant specimens

Mark Teece studied C13:C12 ratios in sample

of L&C plants

Burning fossil fuels Burning fossil fuels adds >>C12adds >>C12

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Obviously no direct measurements of Obviously no direct measurements of atmospheric C13:C12 data atmospheric C13:C12 data

from 200 years agofrom 200 years ago

Teece’sTeece’s results provide modern but results provide modern but prepre--Industrial Revolution baselineIndustrial Revolution baseline

Extend record far back into timeExtend record far back into timeConfirm secular increase in C12Confirm secular increase in C12

Indeed: C13:C12 higher 200 years agoIndeed: C13:C12 higher 200 years ago

The Treasures within… The Treasures within… Unanticipated Uses Unanticipated Uses

of Biological Collections of Biological Collections

Lucinda Lucinda McDadeMcDadeAcademy of Natural Sciences,Academy of Natural Sciences,

PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia

Documents

Global Climate Change - Ecology and Evolutionary Biologyeebweb.arizona.edu/courses/Ecol406R_506R/406_lect21_GlobalWarming_2004... · 1 Lecture 21, 02 November 2004 Global Climate