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Global Higher Education Global Higher Education . . . . . . a changing landscape a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group) (World Bank Group) www.ifc.org www.ifc.org Presentation to - VTA State Conference, Presentation to - VTA State Conference, Melbourne Melbourne 21/22 April 21/22 April 2005 2005 “education and training opportunities in the international marketplace”

Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

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Page 1: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Global Higher Education Global Higher Education . . . . . . a changing landscapea changing landscape

Global Higher Education Global Higher Education . . . . . . a changing landscapea changing landscape

Ron PerkinsonRon PerkinsonPrincipal Education SpecialistPrincipal Education Specialist

International Finance CorporationInternational Finance Corporation(World Bank Group)(World Bank Group)

www.ifc.orgwww.ifc.org

Presentation to - VTA State Conference, Melbourne Presentation to - VTA State Conference, Melbourne 21/22 April 2005 21/22 April 2005

“education and training opportunities in the international marketplace”

Page 2: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

• Total $2.3 trillion+Total $2.3 trillion+ – approx one third of market in USA – approx one third of market in USA – around 15% only in the developing world – around 15% only in the developing world

• Teachers Teachers – 5% of global labor force– 5% of global labor force

• Primary & Secondary EducationPrimary & Secondary Education – substantially public funded– substantially public funded

• Tertiary & Adult EducationTertiary & Adult Education – changing landscape - free provision – changing landscape - free provision disappearing – regulatory - disappearing – regulatory - governments more liberalized – governments more liberalized – private sector participation growingprivate sector participation growing

The Global Education MarketThe Global Education Market

Sources: Merrill Lynch 2000; OECD 2002; World Bank; IFC:

Page 3: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

• Yr 2000 – there were over 90 million students enrolled Yr 2000 – there were over 90 million students enrolled in higher education worldwidein higher education worldwide

• By 2003 est. over 100 million students worldwide By 2003 est. over 100 million students worldwide – approx 4 m of the 11%+ inc. was in China alone – approx 4 m of the 11%+ inc. was in China alone – around 2 m increase in India the same period – around 2 m increase in India the same period

• The Private higher education market is estimated to be The Private higher education market is estimated to be worth more than $300 billion worldwide on current worth more than $300 billion worldwide on current expenditures alone – and growingexpenditures alone – and growing

Higher Education WorldwideHigher Education Worldwide

Sources: Merryl Lynch 2000; IFC staff estimates; World Bank

Page 4: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Higher Education – ‘the perfect storm’Higher Education – ‘the perfect storm’ . . . . . . the seven converging the seven converging

forces of changeforces of change• The increasing importance of knowledge

• The change in demographics

• Decline in public financing – sourcing alternative financing

• The further impact of globalization

• The impact of increasing competition

• The continued impact of internationalization

• The continuing Information & Communications Technologies revolution

Source: ‘World Bank ‘Constructing Knowledge Economies” 2002; The Changing Enterprise’ – ACE 2002; International Finance Corporation

Page 5: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

World Population GrowthWorld Population GrowthWorld Population GrowthWorld Population Growth

YearYear

PopulationPopulation Time Per Time Per BillionBillion

Yr 1Yr 1 250 m250 m – –

18001800 1 b1 b 1800 yrs1800 yrs

19301930 2 b2 b 130 yrs130 yrs

19601960 3 b3 b 30 yrs30 yrs

19751975 4 b4 b 15 yrs15 yrs

19881988 5 b5 b 13 yrs13 yrs

20012001 6 b6 b 13 yrs13 yrs

2012 *2012 * 7 b7 b 11 yrs11 yrs

Source: “6 Billion Human Beings:” - Musée de l'Homme Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris –France; * = World Bank/ IFC

Page 6: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Financing of Financing of Higher EducationHigher Education

Page 7: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

13131313335522Other education *Other education *

15152525434330302020Tertiary education Tertiary education including teacher trainingincluding teacher training

7799272733332424Vocational post-Vocational post-secondary educationsecondary education

151515158819195252Secondary EducationSecondary Education

505038381919131322Primary EducationPrimary Education

00 - 0200 - 0290 - 9990 - 9980 - 8980 - 8970 - 7970 - 7963 - 6963 - 69

PercentPercentCategory - Category -

Fiscal YearFiscal Year

By Education LevelBy Education Level

* = Projects supporting more than one level of education or projects such as those supporting lifelong learning that do not fit well into one of the other categories

World Bank Group 4 decades of education lending

22%

65%

Page 8: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Between 2003 to 2005 – the % of lending Between 2003 to 2005 – the % of lending for higher education declines furtherfor higher education declines further

Between 2003 to 2005 – the % of lending Between 2003 to 2005 – the % of lending for higher education declines furtherfor higher education declines further

World Bank Lending for Tertiary Education FY00-05

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05

US

$ M

illi

on

Tertiary Education Total Education

Average 12% ’03 to ‘05

Page 9: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Funding ComparativesFunding Comparatives . . . the most populous examples

Sources: UNESCO 1999 & 2000; World Bank 2001; US Department of Education 2001; Department of Education & Skills UK, 2002; China National Center for Education, 2002/3; OECD 2002

* All Sth & East Asian countries without China & India

IndiaIndia ChinaChina S&E S&E Asia*Asia*

LACLAC UKUK USAUSA

Total PopulationTotal Population approxapprox

10001000 12601260 600 600

520520 6060 280280

Public Expenditure Public Expenditure on Education ($B) on Education ($B)

1616 4545 1818 9494 7272 480480

% Global Budget% Global Budget 0.7%0.7% 2.0%2.0% 0.8%0.8% 4.2%4.2% 3.2%3.2% 22%22%

Per 10 million Per 10 million PopulationPopulation

0.160.16bb $0.36$0.36bb $0.3$0.3bb $1.8$1.8bb $12$12bb $17$17bb

Page 10: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Tertiary Education in Biggest 40 Developing CountriesTertiary Education in Biggest 40 Developing Countries

Public Spending on Tertiary Ed, % Total Public Spending on EducationPublic Spending per Tertiary Student

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Inde

x (1

990

= 10

0)

Tertiary Enrolments, % Total Enrolments

Sources: World Bank Development Indicators; World Bank Edstats; UNESCO Global Education Digest; OECD Education at a Glance; IFC calculations*Developing 40 includes: Angola, Argentina, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Chile, China,Colombia, DominicanRepublic, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Guatemala, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Madagascar, Malaysia, Mauritius,Mexico, Mozambique, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Senegal, South Africa, Thailand, Trinidad & Tobago,Turkey, Uganda, Uruguay, and Vietnam

$618

OECD

$7,7122001

Note: All amounts are in constant 1995 US$ Values

Page 11: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Enrollments – Tertiary SectorEnrollments – Tertiary Sector

Sources: World Bank Development Indicators; World Bank Edstats; UNESCO Global Education Digest; OECD Education at a Glance; IFC calculations**Developing Asia includes: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam

*32 Developing Country Sample includes: Angola, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria,Chile,Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Guatemala, Hungary, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mexico, Mozambique, Pakistan, Peru,Poland, Romania, Russia, Senegal, South Africa, Trinidad & Tobago, Turkey, Uganda, and Uruguay

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Inde

x (1

990

= 1

00)

Developing Asia** Developing Asia’s Global Peers*

Page 12: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Spending Per Student – Tertiary SectorSpending Per Student – Tertiary Sector

Sources: World Bank Development Indicators; World Bank Edstats; UNESCO Global Education Digest; OECD Education at a Glance; IFC calculations**Developing Asia includes: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001USD

per

Stu

dent

(C

onst

ant

1995

USD

)

Developing Asia**

$278$278$405$405

46% increase46% increase

$899$89916% decrease16% decrease

$1,067$1,067

Developing Asia’s Global Peers*

*Developing Asia’s Global Peers include: Angola, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria,Chile,Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Guatemala, Hungary, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mexico, Mozambique, Pakistan,Peru,Poland, Romania, Russia, Senegal, South Africa, Trinidad & Tobago, Turkey, Uganda, and Uruguay

OECD

$5,7371990

OECD

$7,712200134% increase

Page 13: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

20323334

3847

5860

6364

6769

717576

80

0 20 40 60 80 100

ArgentinaUSA

MexicoPeru

PortugalParaguay

ChileIndonesia

BelgiumColombia

PhilippinesElSalvado

BrazilIndia

JapanSth Korea

Sources: EdStats, World Bank; IFC; OECD; Various Government Statistics; Chile includes 7 publicly funded Private Catholic Universities;

Enrollment in Private Higher Education Enrollment in Private Higher Education (as a % of total)(as a % of total)

Enrollment in Private Higher Education Enrollment in Private Higher Education (as a % of total)(as a % of total)

Page 14: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Knowledge Drives Economic Development Knowledge Drives Economic Development . . . important impact . . . important impact

comes from skills literacycomes from skills literacy

Knowledge Drives Economic Development Knowledge Drives Economic Development . . . important impact . . . important impact

comes from skills literacycomes from skills literacy• Knowledge is an all important driver of economic developmentKnowledge is an all important driver of economic development

• Not just about putting more highly qualified people in to higher paying jobs Not just about putting more highly qualified people in to higher paying jobs

• Proven impact on economic development comes from increasing skills Proven impact on economic development comes from increasing skills literacy – mid & higher level skills are not just about degrees – indications literacy – mid & higher level skills are not just about degrees – indications show quite the opposite show quite the opposite (University of British Colombia ‘Literacy Survey’)(University of British Colombia ‘Literacy Survey’)

• New skills training & knowledge dissemination of economic relevance New skills training & knowledge dissemination of economic relevance need to reach larger firms, private sector, SME’s, micro-enterprise, need to reach larger firms, private sector, SME’s, micro-enterprise, individuals and the unemployed individuals and the unemployed – reach traditional sectors (agriculture, small manufacturing, – reach traditional sectors (agriculture, small manufacturing, services, services, crafts, tourism, etc) crafts, tourism, etc) – to help economies be more productive and competitive – to help economies be more productive and competitive

• More highly skilled workforce isn’t just for big firms and government More highly skilled workforce isn’t just for big firms and government

• Need to turn country’s human resources into strategic advantageNeed to turn country’s human resources into strategic advantageSource: University of British Columbia – ‘Literacy Survey – Ana Ferrer, David A. Green, and W. Craig Riddell - The International Adult Literacy Survey’ (IALS) was a 22-country initiative conducted between 1994 and 1998. http://www.statcan.ca/english/research/89-552-MIE/89-552-MIE2004012.pdf

Page 15: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

• Adults with tertiary qualifications – increased from 22% to 41% over last 25 years in OECD countries

• Over 40% of undergraduates in US & 30% of Canada’s undergraduate students are over 25 yrs

• Yr 2000 – over 20% of first year university students were over 27 yrs – in Australia, NZ, Denmark, Norway & Sweden

• Lifelong learning attracting new learners – more diversified – older and part time students

Lifelong Learning Lifelong Learning Changing Student ProfilesChanging Student Profiles

Sources: OECD 2000; ‘The Changing Enterprise’ – ACE 2002;

Page 16: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Lifelong Learning

Developing a Lifelong Learning Framework –

• Requires fundamental changes to the education system

• HEI’s need to adapt – change Missions, pedagogical processes, accommodate different learning models (formal education / on-the-job training / at home learners)

• The role of technology – can expand access and change the nature of learning – facilitating new modes of delivery (e.g. distance / online learning); and mixed modes

• The framework will accommodate the constant updating of skills, to develop a highly qualified and flexible labor force with new sets of skills and competencies

• Becoming increasingly important in Asian markets

Page 17: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Globalization Globalization & Internationalization& Internationalization

Page 18: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Since Yr 2000:

• Laureate (previously Sylvan International Universities) invested in Spain, France, Switzerland, Mexico, Chile, Ecuador, Panama, Costa Rica, Peru – and looking elsewhere;

• Apollo International invested in Mexico, India, Holland, Brazil;

• University of Nottingham & CIBT/Apollo in China;

• RMIT in Vietnam;

• Monash in South Africa;

• Universitas 21 in Singapore;

• Manipal in Nepal and Malaysia

Cross Border Investment HEI Campuses In Foreign

Countries

Sources: Chronicle June 2003; Company 10-K Reports; IFC 2004

Page 19: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

University of NottinghamUniversity of Nottingham – first foreign HEI to open a campus in China (Sept 2004) – first foreign HEI to open a campus in China (Sept 2004) – same degrees awarded – sit same – same degrees awarded – sit same exams – exams – foreign/cultural & language immersion alternatives foreign/cultural & language immersion alternatives – over 50% UK academic – over 50% UK academic involvement – improving involvement – improving internationalizationinternationalization

Napier University of EdinburghNapier University of Edinburgh – NU opening an international franchise campus on – NU opening an international franchise campus on Zhengzhou Zhengzhou University of Light Industry, Henan Province, University of Light Industry, Henan Province, China – Chinese students study for Scottish China – Chinese students study for Scottish degree in China – Now exploring potential degree in China – Now exploring potential for undergraduate and postgraduate for undergraduate and postgraduate exchange programs, as exchange programs, as well as research well as research

UK – recent foreign campus UK – recent foreign campus examples in Chinaexamples in China

Sources: The Scotsman – 1st October 2004; Business China 14 March 2005; IFC 2005

Page 20: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

• Yr 2000 - >1.6 million international tertiary students abroad in Yr 2000 - >1.6 million international tertiary students abroad in OECD countries alone OECD countries alone – over 2 million across the world – over 2 million across the world – estimate 8 million students by 2025 – estimate 8 million students by 2025

• In 2004 USA dropped to 576,000 – or about 35% of OECD total In 2004 USA dropped to 576,000 – or about 35% of OECD total – – UK (14%) – Australia (13%) – Germany (12%) – France ( 8% ) – NZ ( 5% ) – most from developing countries – Chinese students – Australia (+43% last year) & NZ (60% of total univ)

• ChinaChina – > 60,000 foreign students in 2002 – of which approx 70% from Asia – 12% from Europe – 11% from the USA – & growing

• RussiaRussia – In 2001, 90,000 students – 40,000 from CIS countries – around 100,000 today

• MalaysiaMalaysia – 37,000 students today

Students Studying AbroadStudents Studying Abroad

Sources: OECD 2000, 2002; AUSTRADE 2003; NZ Trade 2003; China Education Yearbook, 2002; Education World 2003; Malaysia MoE 2004

Page 21: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

• AustraliaAustralia – 210,000+ foreign students in Yr 2003 - with 18,000 in off-shore VET, in 24 countries - more than 50% were located in China – predicting 560,000 foreign students by 2025 – double again in distance programs

• % of Service Exports% of Service Exports – 13% and 8% respectively of Australia and NZ’s in Yr 2003 – 4.2% and 3.2%* respectively of US and UK’s

Sources: OECD; IFC; World Bank; Report commissioned by IDP Education Australia; AIEA Fact Sheet & NCVER Australia 2005; China Education Yearbook, 2002; World Bank – Bashir 2005; * = last figure Yr 2000

International Students – Big BusinessInternational Students – Big Business

Page 22: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

But the trends are changing - 1But the trends are changing - 1But the trends are changing - 1But the trends are changing - 1

• In 2003 Australia became second most expensive country to In 2003 Australia became second most expensive country to study in after the UK, with tuition costs more than doubling study in after the UK, with tuition costs more than doubling since 2001since 2001

• Annual living costs for students in popular English speaking Annual living costs for students in popular English speaking countries - UK (US$11,152); Australia (US$9,519); countries - UK (US$11,152); Australia (US$9,519); Canada and US (just under US$9,000); NZ (US$8,686)Canada and US (just under US$9,000); NZ (US$8,686)

• Competition increasing from Asian countries Competition increasing from Asian countries – Hong Kong (US$7,081); India (US$1,515) – Hong Kong (US$7,081); India (US$1,515)

• Australia impacted by Aus $ FOREX increase – plus 12% pa Australia impacted by Aus $ FOREX increase – plus 12% pa inc in tuition fees and living expenses – plus other factorsinc in tuition fees and living expenses – plus other factors

Sources: “Comparative Costs of Higher Education for International Students 2004” – IDP, AustraliaSources: “Comparative Costs of Higher Education for International Students 2004” – IDP, Australia

Page 23: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

But the trends are changing - 2But the trends are changing - 2But the trends are changing - 2But the trends are changing - 2ChinaChina• Record 20 million students enrolled in Chinese colleges in 2004 Record 20 million students enrolled in Chinese colleges in 2004

– the largest college-student population in the world– the largest college-student population in the world• 4.2 million freshmen accepted - double the number of 19984.2 million freshmen accepted - double the number of 1998• College acceptance rate this year was about 60%College acceptance rate this year was about 60%• University & TVET students see growing attractiveness to study University & TVET students see growing attractiveness to study

at home - Less Visa complicationsat home - Less Visa complications• Growing two-way relationships with foreign partnersGrowing two-way relationships with foreign partnersSingaporeSingapore

– 170 private tertiary providers with 119,000 students – 170 private tertiary providers with 119,000 students – 75% of them study in foreign joint/affiliate – 75% of them study in foreign joint/affiliate programs – 35% were over 30yrs – 30% were 25yrs to programs – 35% were over 30yrs – 30% were 25yrs to 29 yrs – most were lifelong learners 29 yrs – most were lifelong learners

Sources: Business China 14 March 2005; IFC 2005

Page 24: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

But the trends are changing - 3But the trends are changing - 3But the trends are changing - 3But the trends are changing - 3• British universities also rely heavily on the Chinese marketBritish universities also rely heavily on the Chinese market• In 2004 overseas students grew to around 200,000, bringing in over In 2004 overseas students grew to around 200,000, bringing in over

£1.25 billion or $2.4£1.25 billion or $2.4 billion in feesbillion in fees• International student numbers fell by 5.3% in 2005International student numbers fell by 5.3% in 2005• China made up 25% of UK 2004 international student numbersChina made up 25% of UK 2004 international student numbers• UK feedback - Reasons for changing trends in China include: UK feedback - Reasons for changing trends in China include:

– the perceived improvement of – the perceived improvement of institutional quality in China institutional quality in China - more appealing to study at home - more appealing to study at home – the Chinese – the Chinese labor market no longer putting such a large labor market no longer putting such a large premium on foreign premium on foreign degrees degrees – local and foreign qualifications, joint foreign – local and foreign qualifications, joint foreign degrees and degrees and local work experience count for greater local work experience count for greater employability employability – ‘Certified’ training and LL/Lng programs growing in appeal – ‘Certified’ training and LL/Lng programs growing in appeal

• In 2005 British HEI’s have around 160 joint program affiliations In 2005 British HEI’s have around 160 joint program affiliations with Chinese HEI’s, with many more plannedwith Chinese HEI’s, with many more planned

Source: Economist - March 2005; IFCSource: Economist - March 2005; IFC

Page 25: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Beyond Retirement Age

Training for the unemployed

Adult learners

Government Failure – students out of

school

Basic Education

Secondary

Higher Ed

Labour Force (750m)

Remedial/ Updating/

Upskilling the Participating Workforce

Formal Education

(244m)

China’s Learning Needs Beyond Formal Education

Page 26: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

International student preferences and International student preferences and destinations are changingdestinations are changing

International student preferences and International student preferences and destinations are changingdestinations are changing

• Greater competition from LAC, EU, Central AmericaGreater competition from LAC, EU, Central America• Partial international study can satisfy cultural Partial international study can satisfy cultural

immersion needsimmersion needs• Universities used to hold the high ground Universities used to hold the high ground

– new systems of education, training and – new systems of education, training and lifelong lifelong learning are demanding programs of greater learning are demanding programs of greater economic economic relevance – both university and non-relevance – both university and non-university tertiary university tertiary – – the educational, social and commercial gains from the educational, social and commercial gains from University / TAFE University / TAFE partnerships in cross border trade partnerships in cross border trade in education services are yet to be optimizedin education services are yet to be optimized

Page 27: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

And – are ‘AID’ and ‘TRADE’ And – are ‘AID’ and ‘TRADE’ talking to each other?talking to each other?

And – are ‘AID’ and ‘TRADE’ And – are ‘AID’ and ‘TRADE’ talking to each other?talking to each other?

• AIDAID needs needs TRADETRADE in selected projects to convert in selected projects to convert Technical Assistance in to downstream sustainabilityTechnical Assistance in to downstream sustainability

• TRADETRADE in some cases can leverage alternative in some cases can leverage alternative

downstream resources that governments can no downstream resources that governments can no longer afford to carrylonger afford to carry

Page 28: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Demand For Greater Program DiversityDemand For Greater Program Diversity• Employers in region requiring educational credentials or ‘certified’ training – Employers in region requiring educational credentials or ‘certified’ training –

important for job marketimportant for job market

• Employers seeking greater flexibility of program choice – want Employers seeking greater flexibility of program choice – want training and job preparation for jobs that exist and improved competencies for training and job preparation for jobs that exist and improved competencies for career enhancementcareer enhancement

Typical local career providers can include –Typical local career providers can include –• Professional schools – accounting, languageProfessional schools – accounting, language

• Business schoolsBusiness schools

• Engineering schoolsEngineering schools

• Training in ICT’s – low / med / high-end technologiesTraining in ICT’s – low / med / high-end technologies

• Industry schools (tourism; agri-business; forestry; fishing; etc) Industry schools (tourism; agri-business; forestry; fishing; etc)

Page 29: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

• What is the role of government – enabler or controller?

• Local education policy objectives – and what is the effectiveness of local policies and frameworks

• Adequacy of student financial support

• Understanding of economic and social development   – demand for fee-paying programs

– demand, supply & gaps in public provision – relevance of current programs – needs of traditional sectors

• Historic educational traditions, social & cultural values – or in past political ideology (Africa, CEE, India)

Local Context Is All ImportantLocal Context Is All Important

Page 30: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

• Changing modus operandi – Public goes Commercial / Private – new forms of competition

• Shift from ‘venue-driven’ to ‘market-driven’ delivery systems

• Market demand for flexible delivery options (evenings; weekends; distance learning; use of new learning technologies)

• The campus-based to web-based ‘Continuum,’ is changing models – academic and investment confidence in e-learning is growing 

• From isolated university models – to linked HEI courses – QA and credit transfer systems – broader options and career pathways

• Separation of institutional management and academic power of faculty – different control over ‘business administration’

Changing Business ModelsChanging Business Models

Page 31: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

• Tertiary distance education – fastest growing sub-sector – represents at least 15% of all higher educations students

• Asia has 3.5 m students (2000)

• 30% of all tertiary courses in Russia are distance

• LAC has over 1 million tertiary distance education students

• E.A.D.T.U. – 18 members – 14 countries – > 900,000 students

• British Open University with over 154,000 students – also delivers in to developing countries

• Australia – over 50% of foreign students enrolled on Australian campuses from Singapore and Hong Kong, are distance

Distance EducationDistance Education

Source: ‘The Changing Enterprise’ – ACE 2002; World Bank & IFC; IDP Education Australia 2002

Page 32: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

On-Line Education – steady growthOn-Line Education – steady growthOn-Line Education – steady growthOn-Line Education – steady growth

• Yr 2002, 19% of corporate training in US was on-line – up from around 7% three years earlier – est $150 billion industry by 2025 – major growth predicted in developing countries

• Estimate approaching 1m students on-line in China

• Tec de Monterrey has over 100,000 students – Universidad Virtual has >80,000 doing part or all courses on-line – over 5,000 outside of Mexico

• In the US - 1.9 million students studying on-line in 2003 – 2.6 million students (16% over all) in 2004, or 24% increase. Approx 40% of these are fully on-line (18% inc)

Sources: IDC; IFC; Tec de Monterrey 2003; World Bank / AVU 2003; Sloan Consortium 2004

Page 33: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

University of Phoenix On-LineUniversity of Phoenix On-Line

Enrollment Growth109,800

10,00018000

29000

49400

79,400

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100,000

120,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

• Average age 34 yrsAverage age 34 yrs

• Tuition typically $30,750 per Tuition typically $30,750 per undergraduate degreeundergraduate degree

• 7000 faculty – 95% part time7000 faculty – 95% part time

• 65% graduation rate65% graduation rate

• > 50% receive employer > 50% receive employer reimbursementreimbursement

• Typical class size 11 – 13Typical class size 11 – 13

• International students from 91 International students from 91 countriescountries

Source: Chronicle Nov 2002; Charles Schwab Sept 15th 2004

Page 34: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Cross border education opportunitiesCross border education opportunitiesCross border education opportunitiesCross border education opportunities

Internationalization provides easy and low risk Internationalization provides easy and low risk stepping-off pointstepping-off point – for customizing and disseminating new – for customizing and disseminating new types of types of knowledge knowledge and skills and skills – – program partnerships - for improving curriculum content, program partnerships - for improving curriculum content, development & research development & research – – opportunities for student and faculty exchange – plus joint opportunities for student and faculty exchange – plus joint programs that accommodate cultural immersionprograms that accommodate cultural immersion– – adding value by facilitating transferability of credits and adding value by facilitating transferability of credits and qualifications qualifications (Are the advantages of having a qualifications (Are the advantages of having a qualifications framework at home, being optimized?)framework at home, being optimized?)– – Internationalization can lead to other commercial initiativesInternationalization can lead to other commercial initiatives

Page 35: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

PPP Example - Blended Campus/On-line Joint DegreePPP Example - Blended Campus/On-line Joint DegreePPP Example - Blended Campus/On-line Joint DegreePPP Example - Blended Campus/On-line Joint Degree

Stevens Institute of Technology - China Hybrid ProgramStevens Institute of Technology - China Hybrid Program • 1/3 taught online by Stevens faculty / 1/3 taught by Chinese

faculty using Stevens curriculum / 1/3 taught by Stevens faculty onsite in Beijing

• Tuition - Revenues split 50-50 between schools• Chinese pay for classrooms, Chinese faculty, local software and

workstations• Stevens pays for Stevens faculty, travel, housing• Stevens is university of record & holds student transcripts and

history• Chinese manage classrooms, logistics and Ministry of Education

Partner Institutions in ChinaPartner Institutions in China• Beijing Institute of Technology; Shanghai Jiao Tong

University; Central University of Finance & Economics

Page 36: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

For International Consulting . . . For International Consulting . . .

• Local governments are World Bank ‘clients’Local governments are World Bank ‘clients’

• Local market will hold the greatest power and influence Local market will hold the greatest power and influence when deciding who to use – so it bodes well for those that when deciding who to use – so it bodes well for those that Internationalize and get on the ground first! Internationalize and get on the ground first!

• Decision making – local experience is important Decision making – local experience is important – Internationalization and program affiliations the quickest – Internationalization and program affiliations the quickest

way to obtain local experience & supportway to obtain local experience & support

• Private higher education providers Private higher education providers – not to be underestimated – not to be underestimated – tend to respond more quickly to joint initiatives – tend to respond more quickly to joint initiatives – strong reputations for quality & – strong reputations for quality & relevance of local programs, relevance of local programs, with high employability of with high employability of graduates graduates

• Use of donor/ grant/ trust funds – to assist with positioning Use of donor/ grant/ trust funds – to assist with positioning

• Promote successes – publish case studiesPromote successes – publish case studies

Page 37: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

Future OutlookFuture OutlookFinancing of education will tighten – demographics outweigh

fiscal realities – growth in non-public financing

New business models – ‘Public going Private’ trend will grow

Knowledge societies and lifelong learning – important for economic development – more flexible mass & e-delivery – new systems for education and training

Globalization and Internationalization – changing the future landscape of higher education, national and cross-border – transferability of credits & qualifications, national & foreign – optimizing Education/AID/Trade efforts & investments essential

ICT’s and the Internet – optimizing use of new technologies – models advancing quality-based mass education delivery

Page 38: Global Higher Education... a changing landscape Ron Perkinson Principal Education Specialist International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)

There is nothing permanent . . . There is nothing permanent . . . except change! except change!

HeraclitusHeraclitus