Global Hydrogen Systems Analysis

HIA Task 30

Kick-off meeting:

Jülich, Germany, 16-17 September 2010

Co-operating Agents: Jochen Linssen and Susan Schoenung

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IEA OrganizationIEA-CERT

REWP FFWP EUWP

AdvancedFuel Cells

AdvancedMotor Fuels

Hydrogen Bio-energyGreenhouse

GasClean Coal

HCG

InformationCenters

Task 30

IEA Organization

Tasks 19-29

Subtask A, B, C

CERT = Committee on Energy Research and Technology

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IEA Hydrogen Implementing Agreement Efforts toward the commercialization of hydrogen

MissionThe mission of the IEA Hydrogen Program is to accelerate hydrogen implementation and widespread utilization.

VisionOur vision for a hydrogen future is based on clean sustainable energy supply of global proportions that plays a key role in all sectors of the economy.

Strategic PlanThe strategy of the IEA's Hydrogen Program is to facilitate, coordinate, and maintain innovative RD&D activities through international cooperation and information exchange. Seven areas are targeted: Technology, Energy Security, Environmental, Economic, Market, Deployment, and Outreach.

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IEA Hydrogen Implementing Agreement Tasks

Fundamental research focus

Application focus

time

www.ieahia.org

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IEA Hydrogen Implementing Agreement Tasks

Task 18: Integrated Systems Evaluation

Task 19: Safety

Task 21: Biohydrogen

Task 22: Advanced storage materials

Task 23: Small-scale reformers

Task 24: Wind to hydrogen (has electrolyzer market focus)

Task 25: High temperature production

Task 26: Biomass to Hydrogen (has market focus)

Task 27: Hydrogen from Waterphotolysis

Task 28: Large-scale delivery of hydrogen

Task 29: Distributed and community hydrogen

Task 30: Global hydrogen systems analysis

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Overview / Background of Task 30

•Analysis Committee established spring 2007 to address HIA need for internally-developed analytical materials.•1st Task Definition meeting, Seville, November 2009•2nd Task Definition meeting: Paris, February 2010•Approval to proceed with Task: Essen, May 2010

Participants (preliminary / yes at Paris meeting):

•Germany (Co-OA)•USA (Co-OA)•Canada•France•Greece•Italy

Interest based on 1st Task Definition meeting:•Australia•New Zealand•UK

•Japan•Norway•Spain•Switzerland•Sweden

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Goals and ObjectivesThe Goal of the Global Hydrogen Systems Analysis task is to perform

comprehensive technical and market analysis of hydrogen technologies and resources, supply and demand related to the projected use of hydrogen in a low-carbon world with sustainable and including intermittent energy sources.

The specific objectives of this task are: • to prepare authoritative analyses which can be used to answer questions about

hydrogen sources and utilization posed by the IEA HIA, the task members, the IEA, and government institutions;

• to update the assessment of hydrogen technology maturity and projections• to interface with other HIA tasks regarding data and R&D progress; • to collaborate with IEA (Paris) analysis processes and support the HIA Executive

Committee in the liaison with IEA analysts

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Organization and Subtasks

Co-operating Agents: Jochen Linssen (Germany) and Susan Schoenung (USA)

Subtask A. Detailed AnalysesSubtask leader: Dr. Susan Schoenung, Longitude 122 West,

Inc.

Subtask B. Update IEA “Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells,” report

Subtask leader: Mr. Jochen Linssen, Research Center, Jülich

Subtask C. Collaboration with IEA AnalyticsSubtask leader: Ms. Kari Aamodt Espegren, Institute for

Energy Technology, Norway

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Expected Outcomes

Work products will include:

– Authoritative studies, both refereed journal articles and traditional IEA reports

– Update IEA “Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells,” report (with input from other HIA Tasks)

– Collaboration with IEA World Energy Outlook and Energy Technology Perspectives

– Task website

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Success Criteria for this Meeting

– Get to know each other, our expertise and interests– Establish roles and responsibilities for experts / Subtask leaders – Develop an overall Task Work Plan for approval of the

Executive Committee– Agree on approach and data requirements for Subtask A – Identify website provider– Address additional ExCo request (ESTAP)– Make (tentative) plans for next meetings: spring 2011 (Paris) and

fall 2011 (?)

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Responsibilities of the Experts

In addition to the obligations enumerated in Article 8 of this Agreement, each Participant shall:

• Attend all Task meetings, and all Subtask meetings to which it contributes, and present status of the ongoing or completed work at such meetings.

• Provide the Operating Agent with a National Participation Letter, indicating their commitment for the duration of the task and the level of contribution to the Annex. The National Participation Letters in aggregate represent the National Participation Plan.

• Contribute to the collective efforts of the Task in accordance with the Programme of Work approved by the Executive Committee pursuant to Article 5(c) and the National Participation Plan; and

• Assist in the review of technical reports produced by the task.

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Subtask A: Detailed AnalysesGlobal Hydrogen Resources

Overview • Authoritative analysis providing output from HIA and input to other activities

• Based on reduced carbon energy supply and utilization

• Global Hydrogen resources and demand• Regional differentiation-this is key!• What if? scenarios• Global trade implications

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Subtask A: Working Session

• Overview – objectives and proposed approach• Input data required• Analysis / model demo• Group discussion• Planning session – tasking, timing, deliverables• Next steps

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Subtask A. Detailed AnalysesGlobal Hydrogen Resources

Elements•Agree on fundamental assumptions for a low-carbon world

•Assess regional hydrogen resources around the globe

•Estimate projected demands for hydrogen

•Start with passenger vehicles as base case

•Using Dynamic Systems Modeling, examine resource flows in a time-varying global energy economy. What flows between nations? Some examples are raw materials such natural gas, biomass, platinum or other exotic materials, conversion technologies such as wind turbines or electrolyzers, or output such as hydrogen or electricity.

•Focus on impact of these global changes on IEA HIA participating countries.

•Evaluate cost impacts of limited resources as supply and demand change over time.

•Examine the unintended implications (advantages or disadvantages) on IEA HIA participating countries

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Subtask A. Detailed AnalysesGlobal Hydrogen Resources

Expert skills required:

• systems modeling

• familiarity with national data and infrastructure roll-out scenarios

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Global Impacts: What flows between nations?

Answer questions such as: how will a global transition to a new energy infrastructure affect energy and material flows? What are the implications on imports / exports? What are the potential cost impacts?

Regional differentiation

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First step - Simple supply and demand

Country A

Country B

Resources

Resources

Projected demand

Projected demand

Surplus

Shortage Time

kg H2

Need to know: resources, demand, infrastructure plans

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System dynamics example using Powersim software

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Subtask A. Detailed AnalysesGlobal Hydrogen Resources

Additional detailed analysis will build on the first analyses and model building effort aimed at investigating the different resources.

While a number of distinctly separate studies will be performed to answer specific questions, these studies will build on the work / modeling from the previous analysis.

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Subtask A: Additional studies

• Near term market study• Reductions in carbon emissions based on various hydrogen scenarios

• Hydrogen and renewable energy • Hydrogen for large, utility scale energy storage• The possibilities for global trade and transport of hydrogen

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Subtask B:Update Hydrogen Database

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Subtask C: Collaboration with IEA ETP/ WEO Analytics

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Request from Executive Committee: ETSAP document review

IEA Energy Technology Essentials:

•Hydrogen Production & Distribution (2007)•Automotive Hydrogen Technology (2010)

Reviews requested within 6 months

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Annex Responsibilities / Operating agent (s)

Work Plan for Approval at next ExCo - November in Istanbul

Annual information plan

2 semi-annual progress reports and presentations

1 annual report

(+ DOE reporting)

Websites: private and public

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Work Plan Elements

•Brief statement of Task objectives •Brief description of Subtasks •For each Subtask:

o Activitieso Participantso Deliverableso Milestone Schedule

•Information Plan dealing with Task reports and other products •Resource requirements

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Task Formulation / Schedule

Time frame: June 2010 through December 2013Expert meetings: 2 x per year; 1 x each year in ParisNext Experts meeting: Paris? Possible joint with ExCoQuarterly conference calls: November, January

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Action Items

•Confirm experts for each Subtask: Canada, Japan•Contact Greece, Australia, UK•Sign National Participation Commitment Letters (The minimum level of effort for participation: 0.5 person-years / year for participating countries)

•Prepare Work Plan for presentation to ExCo - Susan and Jochen

•Prepare minutes and semi-annual report - Susan•Confirm web conference dates and instructions•Website ???

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Success Criteria for this Meeting - how did we do?

– Get to know each other, our expertise and interests– Establish roles and responsibilities for experts /

Subtask leaders – Develop an overall Task Work Plan for approval

of the Executive Committee– Agree on approach and data requirements for

Subtask A – Identify website provider– Address additional ExCo request (ESTAP)– Make (tentative) plans for next meetings: spring

2011 (Paris) and fall 2011 (?)

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Contact Information

Jochen Linssen: j.linssen@fz-juelich.de

Susan Schoenung: susan.schoenung@sbcglobal.net

Kari Espegren: kari.espegren@ife.no

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