Global Population TrendsGlobal Population Trends implications and consequences implications and consequences

Paul SuttonPaul Sutton

psutton@du.edupsutton@du.edu

Department of GeographyDepartment of Geography

University of DenverUniversity of Denver

Coming to grips with demographic history

Human Population Milestones

1800 human population reaches 1 Billion

1930 human population reaches 2 Billion

1960 human population reaches 3 Billion

1975 human population reaches 4 Billion

1987 human population reaches 5 Billion

1999 human population reaches 6 Billion

 

My father was born in 1926. Of these 6 milestones he saw

The world reach 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and maybe 7 Billion

(6 of the 7 milestones in a single human lifetime)

The Graphical History of Human Population Growth

“Human beings – mammals of the 50 kilogram weight class and members of a group, the primates, otherwise noted for scarcity – have become a hundred times more numerous than any other land animal of comparable size in the history of life. By every conceivable measure, humanity is ecologically abnormal. Our species appropriates between 20 and 40 per cent of the solar energy captured in organic material by land plants. There is no way that we can draw upon the resources of the planet to such a degree without drastically reducing the state of most other species.”  From E.O. Wilson’s book: “The Diversity of Life”

Basic Contemporary Population RealitySome Introductory Questions:

1)   How many people live on the Earth Right now?

2)   What is the annual Percentage Growth rate of the Planet?

3)   If this rate remained constant, how long would it take for the Earth’s population to double? (the rule of 69)

4)   How many people are added to the Earth’s Population: Every Year? __________ Every Day?____________ Every Hour?__________ Every Second?__________

5) How many abortions happen every year?

~6.8 Billion

~1.2%

~58 Years

~80,000,000 ~200,000

~9,000 ~3

~42,000,000

What’s in store for future populations?Is this graph possible?

What does zero population growth mean?What does a sustainable economy look like?

What does the graph imply about total population?

Population Growth Rates are going down but ……

• Global rate over 2% in the early 1960’s

• Global rate has dropped to ~1.2% today.

• But….

• 1.2% of 7 billion is: 84 million per year (today)

• Whereas …

• 2.2% of 3 billion is: 66 million per year. (1960)

• Did the 2005 Tsunami in Indonesia cause negative growth in the global population?

Questions about Carrying Questions about Carrying Capacity must be askedCapacity must be asked

The global human population that the earth can sustain indefinitelyThe global human population that the earth can sustain indefinitely

• Most estimates of the world’s carrying capacity are in the range of 4-15 billion people (how are they made?)

• In your lifetime, the earth already has, or soon will, reach carrying capacity

• Population growth is THE major contributor to concerns about Energy Supply, Housing Shortages, Hunger, and Environmental Degradation…..

Inter-related Problems

• Population growth puts stresses on systems in inter-related ways. Think of Food, Water, and Energy. Think of methanol in gasoline. Corn as food becomes corn as fuel. More SUVs or more Tortillas?

The following slides describe 16 dimensions of the population problem (adapted from World Watch paper #143)

1) Grain Production & Population

2) Fresh Water Supplies & Population

• Many rivers are dry or almost dry when they reach the sea (Colorado, Yellow River, Nile)

• Many aquifers are being ‘mined’ for water.

• “As the growing demand for water collides with the limits of supply, countries typically satisfy rising urban and residential demands by diverting water from irrigation. They then import grain to offset the loss of irrigation water. Since it takes at least 1,000 tons of water to produce a ton of grain.”

3) Biodiversity and PopulationIn the half a billion years of complex life, geology reveals five mass extinctions. All were caused by the smash of big extraterrestrial bodies into Earth or by stupendous geological forces. Biologists and conservationists call today’s extinction the Sixth Great Extinction in light of its magnitude. This extinction stands apart, though, because cosmic or geological forces do not

cause it. It has a biological cause. One species. Us. Homo sapiens.

Due to its cause, and heeding our moral compass and sense of justice, perhaps we should NOT call today’s ecological crisis the “Sixth Mass Extinction.” Rather, we perhaps should call it the First Mass Murder of Life.Never before has a single species escaped out of the confines of its ecosystems to become a global, geological force and then to spread across Earth to almost every ecosystem, and then remake and in many cases waste those ecosystems. Never before has a single species consumed so much of the rest

of life into itself. Factoid: Homo Sapiens consumes 40% of NPP.

From: http://rewilding.org/populationgrowth.html

4) Climate Change and Population

The now famous CO2 graph(global averages over time)

A map of the driving force

5) Oceanic Fish Catch and Population

• Source: The encyclopedia of the earth• http://www.eoearth.org/article/Marine_fisheries

Note: These declines are DESPITE vastly improved technology

6) Jobs and Population Growth

• Did the Black Plague cause the Renaissance?

From article by Heidi Shierholz at Economic Policy InstituteAre we supposed to expect 10% unemployment now?

7) Cropland and Population Growth• In October of 2009 the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization held a high

level expert forum titled “How To Feed The World in 2050” (http://www.fao.org/wsfs/forum2050/wsfs-forum/en/ ). The forum reviewed projections of population and economic growth to the year 2050. Population numbers are expected to rise to 9 billion by 2050, with 70% of the population living in urban areas. Incomes are expected to continue to rise, leading to more protein consumption. It is also anticipated that there will be growth in the use of crops for biofuels. Based on these projections the forum members came to the following conclusions :

• The 2050 demand for food and agricultural products will rise by 70% compared to 2009.

To meet this demand, 70 million hectares of new cropland will be needed.

50 million hectares of cropland will be lost in developed countries, primarily due to urbanization.

• Big Key Point: Growth in Population and Standard of Living will require a DOUBLING of Global agricultural land area by 2050 – Really ?

8) Forests and Population Growth

Deforestation in the AmazonIs visible from Space

Population growth (Blue)Forest Loss (Red) in majorWorld regions 1990 to Present

9) Housing and Population Growth

Pictures are worth 1,000 words

What do you think the water and sewer systems are like in the worldRight now? Add 3 Billion people by 2050. Will they get better?Please tell us how?

10) Energy and Population Growth

Scary rhetorical figure?

Facts of Discovery and productionto the year 2000

Food production has been Dependent on Oil Energy.Future water production viaDesalinization will require Lots of energy.Oil is going away. Population growth continues.

How related do you think the oilProduction curve and the populationGrowth rate curve really are?

New World OrderIn 1950 there was just one city with a population of more than ten million-New York. In 2015 there will be 21, and the number of urban areas with

population between five and ten million will shoot from 7 to 37. This

growth will occur mainly in developing countries, those least

equipped to provide transportation, housing, water, and sewers. Asia and Africa, now more than 2/3 rural, will

be half urban by 2025. Never have urban populations expanded so fast.

“Humanity has not been down this road before”, write urbanists Peter Hall and Ulrich Pfeiffer. “there are

no precedents, no guideposts”

11) Urbanization and Population Growth

Image Taken from National Geographic MagazineSpecial issue on Cities of the World

12) Natural Recreation Areas and Population Growth

Ahhh… The serenity of being back toNature at Yellowstone NP……..

Here in the U.S. we have toReserve campsites and oftenDeal with crowding in our National Parks. In other Countries people harvest Plants and animals out of their‘protected’ areas for their ownSurvival.

13) Education and Population GrowthEven here in the United States (arguably the wealthiest nation in the world) we can’t seem to maintain an effective education System.

Imagine trying to establish one in a poor developing country with A rapidly growing population.

14) Waste and Population Growth

We have created massive Oceanic patches of garbageThat we were until recentlyUnaware of. The atmosphereIs hosting our waste CO2 withPotentially devastating Consequences. The waste we Do deal with going into landfillsAnd sewage systems is gettingIncreasingly expensive to handle.

How will this get better with 3 billion more people in the next40 years?

Great Pacific Plastic Garbage Gyre (above)

Other oceanic garbage gyres

15) Meat and Population Growth

Global carrying Capacity isHigher if we all become Vegetarians.

Increasing meat Consumption Accelerates extensification ofAgricultural land.

Over 1/3 of all grain goes toFeeding poultry and livestock.

Do YOU want to become a vegetarian to make room for a larger population?

16) Income and Population GrowthAre there limits to growth?

Is our global economy outgrowing our global ecosystems Ability to support it?

To what extent does ‘Zero Sum Game’ apply to human life andResources on the earth?

What happened after the Black Plague? (e.g. when population declined)

Rising WagesLand ReformTechnological InnovationHigher Incomes

Overpopulation – Talk about itPeter Alcorn on the world in 2200 (TED Talk)http://www.ted.com/talks/pete_alcorn_s_vision_of_a_better_world.html

Beneficial Economic Effects of the U.N.’s projected declining global populationPredicts the future will be better then. But skips over why the world’s global populationWill drop. You could make the same argument about how much better it is on EasterIsland since the collapse of its population. The transition was no fun.

“If we can make it through the next 150 years…….”

Well that’s the hard question isn’t it. How to make it through the next 150 years. Those are the years you and I and our children will have to live through. I don’tWant them to look like the Plague.

Talking about and then addressing the very real and fundamental problems ofPopulation growth is essential to avoid that.

Overpopulation is a taboo topic of conversation. End the taboo.

A better talk on Population Challenges by Hans Rosling (TED talk)http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_growth.html

Policy ObservationCarbon Sequestration and Population GrowthThe $7 cost of abating a ton of CO2 using family planning compares with $24 for wind power, $51 for solar, $57-83 for coal plants with carbon capture and storage, $92 for plug-in hybrid vehicles and $131 for electric vehicleshttp://www.triplepundit.com/2009/09/study-finds-family-planning-cheapest-way-to-prevent-climate-change/

The “Tech” solutions to Carbon Sequestration do nothing forAgricultural land expansion, biodiversity preservation, urbanizationProblems, water shortages, etc.

The family planning approach helps in all dimensions.

What are we waiting for?

Questions?