Global Warming and Our Global Warming and Our Energy FutureEnergy Future

Dennis SilvermanDennis SilvermanPhysics and AstronomyPhysics and Astronomy

U C IrvineU C Irvinewww.physics.uci.edu/~silverma/www.physics.uci.edu/~silverma/

gwenergy.pptgwenergy.ppt

Our Energy FutureOur Energy Future

I.I. Future of Fossil FuelsFuture of Fossil FuelsII.II. Alternate Energy SourcesAlternate Energy SourcesIII.III. Worldwide Nuclear PowerWorldwide Nuclear PowerIV.IV.Global WarmingGlobal Warming

I. Future of Fossil FuelsI. Future of Fossil Fuels• PetroleumPetroleum• Natural GasNatural Gas• CoalCoal• Oil Shale and Tar SandsOil Shale and Tar Sands• COCO22 Emissions Emissions

U.S. 20 Year Projections of Energy U.S. 20 Year Projections of Energy Use in Quads (US Uses 100 Use in Quads (US Uses 100 Quads/year)Quads/year)

Petroleum Fuel FuturePetroleum Fuel Future• US oil production peaked around 1970.US oil production peaked around 1970.• US energy consumption is increasing at 1.5% a year.US energy consumption is increasing at 1.5% a year.• The US currently imports 60% of its oil.The US currently imports 60% of its oil.• Proven world oil resources are about 2,000 billion Proven world oil resources are about 2,000 billion

barrels - about half of this has already been used.barrels - about half of this has already been used.• Unproven resources may boost this to 3,000-4,000 Unproven resources may boost this to 3,000-4,000

billion barrels total.billion barrels total.• At the At the peakpeak the price rises steeply and consumption the price rises steeply and consumption

must fall, perhaps leading to recession.must fall, perhaps leading to recession.• However, we may see a very flat, long peak where However, we may see a very flat, long peak where

prices rise, bringing in new oil resources to keep prices rise, bringing in new oil resources to keep production flat, and efficiency and conservation production flat, and efficiency and conservation setting in to hold demand flat to a fixed supply.setting in to hold demand flat to a fixed supply.

Peaking of World Oil ProductionPeaking of World Oil ProductionHirsch Report: Feb. 2005Hirsch Report: Feb. 2005

World Oil Growth and Decline - World Oil Growth and Decline - Pessimistic 2,000 Bbl resources (1,000 Pessimistic 2,000 Bbl resources (1,000 Bbl reserve)Bbl reserve)

Optimistic 3,000 Bbl of oil total Optimistic 3,000 Bbl of oil total resources. US Geological Serviceresources. US Geological Service

US and World Natural GasUS and World Natural Gas• US demand growth is 3% per year.US demand growth is 3% per year.• A shortage now exists in the US and plans for A shortage now exists in the US and plans for

Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) terminals for imports Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) terminals for imports exist around the country (Ventura, Long Beach, exist around the country (Ventura, Long Beach, Baja California, up to 40 sites).Baja California, up to 40 sites).

• The Federal Government wants the final say on The Federal Government wants the final say on allowing siting of these terminals. allowing siting of these terminals.

• LNG could grow from 1% now to 20% by 2020.LNG could grow from 1% now to 20% by 2020.• The graphs are for the time the supply will The graphs are for the time the supply will lastlast..• The lighter color is less likely than the darker The lighter color is less likely than the darker

part.part.

Natural GasNatural GasPhysics Today, July 2004, by Paul B. Physics Today, July 2004, by Paul B. WeiszWeisz..

World Oil and World Oil and Natural Gas Natural Gas ReservesReserves• Total reserves,Total reserves,with natural gas with natural gas

reserves in equivalentreserves in equivalentbillion barrels ofbillion barrels ofOil (bbl).Oil (bbl).• World oil World oil

consumption is 30 consumption is 30 bbl/year.bbl/year.

• Left out Canadian tar Left out Canadian tar sands at 179 bbl oil.sands at 179 bbl oil.

• US has 22 bbl oil, and US has 22 bbl oil, and produces 2.0 bbl/year produces 2.0 bbl/year and would last only and would last only 11 years.11 years.

US Coal SupplyUS Coal Supply• The total US coal reserve is 5700 Quads.The total US coal reserve is 5700 Quads.• The current rate of use is about 20 Quads per The current rate of use is about 20 Quads per

year.year.• Population growth will reduce its longevity of Population growth will reduce its longevity of

250 years with no growth250 years with no growth• Conversion to motor fuel uses 2 Quads of Conversion to motor fuel uses 2 Quads of

coal to generate 1 Quad of fuel plus the coal to generate 1 Quad of fuel plus the additional CO2 emission.additional CO2 emission.

• Conversion to hydrogen fuel uses even more.Conversion to hydrogen fuel uses even more.• The graph assumes 54% of underground coal The graph assumes 54% of underground coal

is recoverable.is recoverable.• Estimates are for various growth rates of use.Estimates are for various growth rates of use.

US Coal LifetimeUS Coal Lifetime

World Coal ReservesWorld Coal Reserves

Fossil Fuel Future SummaryFossil Fuel Future Summary• Oil, Natural Gas, Shale Oil, and Coal produce COOil, Natural Gas, Shale Oil, and Coal produce CO2.2.

– Carbon sequestration requires an extra 30% of power and Carbon sequestration requires an extra 30% of power and needs research. needs research. FutureGenFutureGen $1 billion research plant. $1 billion research plant.

• Oil is needed for transportation fuelOil is needed for transportation fuel– Too expensive for electricity generation Too expensive for electricity generation – Total world reserve of oil is a large question, uses Total world reserve of oil is a large question, uses

politically motivated estimates of individual countries and politically motivated estimates of individual countries and industry secretsindustry secrets

– Reserves: About 50 years with growth in useReserves: About 50 years with growth in use– 2/3 is in the Middle East2/3 is in the Middle East

• Coal may last 100 years with growth in usage, but Coal may last 100 years with growth in usage, but only 70 years if partly converted to replace oilonly 70 years if partly converted to replace oil

• Current rate of use of fossil fuels will increase Current rate of use of fossil fuels will increase worldwideworldwide

• U S proposed climate technology programU S proposed climate technology program

Short Term OptimumShort Term Optimum• The best way to hold down CO2 increases is to remove The best way to hold down CO2 increases is to remove

fossil fuels from electricity generation, but just use fossil fuels from electricity generation, but just use gasoline for transportation and natural gas for heating.gasoline for transportation and natural gas for heating.

• Since ½ of US electricity comes from coal which Since ½ of US electricity comes from coal which generates twice as much CO2 per energy unit as does generates twice as much CO2 per energy unit as does natural gas, we should switch to natural gas. This, natural gas, we should switch to natural gas. This, however, involves massive imports.however, involves massive imports.

• We need increases in alternate energy sources such as We need increases in alternate energy sources such as hydro, nuclear, wind and solar.hydro, nuclear, wind and solar.

• However, coal and LNG will be cheaper than nuclear, However, coal and LNG will be cheaper than nuclear, so a sacrifice is required here.so a sacrifice is required here.

• Solar cells are very expensive. Direct solar water Solar cells are very expensive. Direct solar water heating is much more efficient.heating is much more efficient.

• We also need increases in energy efficiency and We also need increases in energy efficiency and conservation.conservation.

• This especially includes high mileage vehicles.This especially includes high mileage vehicles.

Comparative Projected Vehicle Comparative Projected Vehicle Fuel EconomiesFuel Economies

Paris: Energy efficient small Paris: Energy efficient small car and convenient parkingcar and convenient parking

II. Alternative Energy II. Alternative Energy SourcesSources• Hydrogen TransmissionHydrogen Transmission• Fusion ReactorsFusion Reactors• Renewables:Renewables:

– HydroelectricHydroelectric– Wind PowerWind Power– Solar PowerSolar Power– Biomass, EthanolBiomass, Ethanol– GeothermalGeothermal

The Hydrogen DreamThe Hydrogen Dream• Hydrogen is a Hydrogen is a transmittertransmitter of energy, of energy, notnot a source: a source:

– Must use fossil fuel (creating COMust use fossil fuel (creating CO22 ) or high temperature ) or high temperature reactors or solar or electrical power to create Hreactors or solar or electrical power to create H2 2 -- needs -- needs researchresearch

– Need fuel cell technology improvement (current $3000/kw Need fuel cell technology improvement (current $3000/kw vs $30/kw for a gas engine).vs $30/kw for a gas engine).

– Fuel cells combine 2HFuel cells combine 2H22 with O with O22 to make 2H to make 2H22O.O.– Yet fuel cells are 60% efficient compared to 22% for gas Yet fuel cells are 60% efficient compared to 22% for gas

and 45% for a diesel engine.and 45% for a diesel engine.– Catalysts in fuel cells are expensive and can be poisoned Catalysts in fuel cells are expensive and can be poisoned

by impurities.by impurities.– Electric cars can do similar things with cheap motors and Electric cars can do similar things with cheap motors and

already established electricity distribution. Range of 50 already established electricity distribution. Range of 50 miles can be accommodated by work or shopping charging miles can be accommodated by work or shopping charging stations, or higher tech batteries.stations, or higher tech batteries.

California Hydrogen California Hydrogen DreamingDreaming

– Need to establish a distribution system on as large Need to establish a distribution system on as large a scale as for gasolinea scale as for gasoline

– California is establishing a Hydrogen highway of California is establishing a Hydrogen highway of 200 stations for about $100 million200 stations for about $100 million

– Current cost of hydrogen is 4 times that of gasolineCurrent cost of hydrogen is 4 times that of gasoline– Compressed hydrogen tank has a range of only 200 Compressed hydrogen tank has a range of only 200

miles (50 for Arnold’s Hummer demo)miles (50 for Arnold’s Hummer demo)– HH22 will probably be stored in a smaller volume will probably be stored in a smaller volume

molecule like NaBHmolecule like NaBH44 – Won’t be practical for 30 yearsWon’t be practical for 30 years– Physics Today "The Hydrogen Economy"Physics Today "The Hydrogen Economy"

Fusion ReactorsFusion Reactors• Fusion easiest for Deuterium on TritiumFusion easiest for Deuterium on Tritium in a high temperature plasma.in a high temperature plasma.• Replacement Tritium created from a Lithium blanket Replacement Tritium created from a Lithium blanket

around the reactor absorbing a produced neutron.around the reactor absorbing a produced neutron.• Fusion reactors Fusion reactors

– International ITER International ITER in 2012 for research for a decade, costing in 2012 for research for a decade, costing $5 billion$5 billion

– Current stalemate over siting in France or JapanCurrent stalemate over siting in France or Japan– To be followed by DEMO for a functioning plant, taking To be followed by DEMO for a functioning plant, taking

another 10 years. So not ready for building units until at another 10 years. So not ready for building units until at least 2030.least 2030.

– DEMO will cost $50 billion for a similar capacity as a nuclear DEMO will cost $50 billion for a similar capacity as a nuclear reactor.reactor.

• US Lithium supply would last a few hundred years.US Lithium supply would last a few hundred years.• Still would be a radioactive waste disposal problem.Still would be a radioactive waste disposal problem.

Renewable energy sourcesRenewable energy sources• HydroelectricHydroelectric: very useful: very useful

– At 30% – 50% of maximum useAt 30% – 50% of maximum use– Effects of damsEffects of dams– Variable with season and climateVariable with season and climate

• Wind powerWind power: Need high wind areas on cheap land: Need high wind areas on cheap land– 600 large turbines the equivalent of a nuclear reactor600 large turbines the equivalent of a nuclear reactor– Would need 30 linear miles of turbinesWould need 30 linear miles of turbines– Already scenic protestsAlready scenic protests– Many areas far from the power gridMany areas far from the power grid– Claimed to be as cheap as natural gasClaimed to be as cheap as natural gas– Waiting for Tax Credit law renewalWaiting for Tax Credit law renewal

• Solar powerSolar power: 80% efficient for water heating on roofs: 80% efficient for water heating on roofs– Only 10% efficient for rooftop electricityOnly 10% efficient for rooftop electricity– Solar cell electricity more costly by a factor of 10Solar cell electricity more costly by a factor of 10– 40 square miles equivalent to one nuclear reactor40 square miles equivalent to one nuclear reactor– Need more research to improve efficiency and lower Need more research to improve efficiency and lower

manufacturing costsmanufacturing costs

Solar ReflectionsSolar Reflections• Rooftop water heating elements are 80% effective.Rooftop water heating elements are 80% effective.• But solar cells are only 10% effective.But solar cells are only 10% effective.• Therefore during a hot summer it would be better to Therefore during a hot summer it would be better to

reflect sunlight off the roof at near 100% efficiency. reflect sunlight off the roof at near 100% efficiency. • During the winter it would be better to absorb all of the During the winter it would be better to absorb all of the

sunlight, rather than just using 10% of it as electricity sunlight, rather than just using 10% of it as electricity for inside heating or power.for inside heating or power.

• Similarly in cities, which heat up because of asphalt Similarly in cities, which heat up because of asphalt and tarred or rocky roofs, it would be better to reflect and tarred or rocky roofs, it would be better to reflect energy during the summer by painting roads and roofs energy during the summer by painting roads and roofs white or light colored.white or light colored.

• Also, tree planting cools cities, as well as patio or Also, tree planting cools cities, as well as patio or walkway covers, and covered parking garages or stalls.walkway covers, and covered parking garages or stalls.

• Water can also be evaporated for transpiration cooling.Water can also be evaporated for transpiration cooling.• California is about to waste $23 billion on a million California is about to waste $23 billion on a million

rooftop program of solar cells, which will generate rooftop program of solar cells, which will generate electricity equivalent to only one-half of a nuclear electricity equivalent to only one-half of a nuclear reactor (SB1).reactor (SB1).

Biomass, Ethanol, and Biomass, Ethanol, and GeothermalGeothermal• BiomassBiomass: Competes with farm use for food: Competes with farm use for food

– Insufficient for total power by a factor of 40Insufficient for total power by a factor of 40– 2,000 square miles equivalent of one nuclear 2,000 square miles equivalent of one nuclear

reactorreactor– Burns to methane and nitrous oxide, both Burns to methane and nitrous oxide, both

greenhouse gasesgreenhouse gases– Sea growing possibilities being researchedSea growing possibilities being researched

• EthanolEthanol: Political Issue for Rural (Red) States and : Political Issue for Rural (Red) States and areasareas– May be forced to include in gasoline as antiknock May be forced to include in gasoline as antiknock

preventer, but no pipelines or ships, so truck preventer, but no pipelines or ships, so truck transportation costly, and not needed by the Blue transportation costly, and not needed by the Blue States or cities. Again, generates COStates or cities. Again, generates CO22

..

• GeothermalGeothermal: Few sites, mostly in the west: Few sites, mostly in the west– Produces Sulfur and heavy element pollutionProduces Sulfur and heavy element pollution– Drilled holes cooled after sufficient water is heatedDrilled holes cooled after sufficient water is heated

III. Worldwide Nuclear III. Worldwide Nuclear PowerPower• Provides 20% of the world’s electricityProvides 20% of the world’s electricity• Provides 7% of world’s total energy usageProvides 7% of world’s total energy usage• Cost is currently similar to fossil fuelsCost is currently similar to fossil fuels• Nuclear reactors have zero emissions of Nuclear reactors have zero emissions of

smog or CO2smog or CO2• There are 440 nuclear power reactors in There are 440 nuclear power reactors in

31 countries31 countries• 30 more are under construction30 more are under construction• They produce a total of 351 billion watts of They produce a total of 351 billion watts of

electricityelectricity

World Nuclear Power PlantsWorld Nuclear Power Plants

US Nuclear PowerUS Nuclear PowerIn the US, 20% of our electricity is produced by nuclear power. There are 103 US nuclear power plants.

Soviet Nuclear Weapons to Soviet Nuclear Weapons to US Reactor FuelUS Reactor Fuel• We are buying highly enriched uranium We are buying highly enriched uranium

(20% (20% 235235U) from the former Soviet Union’s U) from the former Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons. The delivery is over 20 nuclear weapons. The delivery is over 20 years from 1993—2013.years from 1993—2013.

• We are converting it to low enriched We are converting it to low enriched uranium (3% uranium (3% 235235U) for reactor fuel.U) for reactor fuel.

• It will satisfy 9 years of US reactor fuel It will satisfy 9 years of US reactor fuel demand.demand.

• It comes from 6,855 Soviet nuclear It comes from 6,855 Soviet nuclear warheads.warheads.

California related reactorsCalifornia related reactors

Diablo Canyon, two reactorsSan Onofre, two reactors

⅓ of Palo Verde 1, 2, & 3 in Arizona

California Nuclear EnergyCalifornia Nuclear Energy• Each 1,100 megawatt reactor can power one Each 1,100 megawatt reactor can power one

million homes.million homes.• Each reactor’s output is equivalent to 15 million Each reactor’s output is equivalent to 15 million

barrels of oil or 3.5 million tons of coal a year. barrels of oil or 3.5 million tons of coal a year. • The total 5,500 megawatts of nuclear power is out The total 5,500 megawatts of nuclear power is out

of a peak state electrical power of 30,000 – 40,000 of a peak state electrical power of 30,000 – 40,000 megawatts.megawatts.

• The PUC is now faced with a decision to approve The PUC is now faced with a decision to approve $1.4 billion to replace steam generators in San $1.4 billion to replace steam generators in San Onofre and Diablo Canyon.Onofre and Diablo Canyon.

• The replacements would save consumers up to $3 The replacements would save consumers up to $3 billion they would have to pay for electricity billion they would have to pay for electricity elsewhere.elsewhere.

Nuclear Power Proposed Nuclear Power Proposed Solution?Solution?• Richard Richard GarwinGarwin , , MITMIT and industry propose: and industry propose:• If 50 years from now the world uses twice as much If 50 years from now the world uses twice as much

energy, and half comes from nuclear powerenergy, and half comes from nuclear power• Need 4,000 nuclear reactors, using about a million Need 4,000 nuclear reactors, using about a million

tons of Uranium a yeartons of Uranium a year• With higher cost terrestrial ore, would last for 300 With higher cost terrestrial ore, would last for 300

yearsyears• Breeder reactors creating Plutonium could extend Breeder reactors creating Plutonium could extend

the supply to 200,000 yearsthe supply to 200,000 years• Nonpolluting, non-CO2 producing sourceNonpolluting, non-CO2 producing source• Need more trained nuclear engineers and sitesNeed more trained nuclear engineers and sites• Study fuel reprocessing, waste disposal, and safetyStudy fuel reprocessing, waste disposal, and safety

ConservationConservation• Populations of largest CO2 producing countries Populations of largest CO2 producing countries

are stabilizingare stabilizing• Mass transit, car pooling, cash for not parkingMass transit, car pooling, cash for not parking• Transit Villages built around transportation Transit Villages built around transportation

lineslines• Fuel economy improvementsFuel economy improvements• Hybrid and Electric cars, cylinder shut down Hybrid and Electric cars, cylinder shut down

enginesengines• Transportation replaced by communicationsTransportation replaced by communications• Smart offices, houses and buildingsSmart offices, houses and buildings• Energy cost increases will drive conservationEnergy cost increases will drive conservation• CO2CO2 production taxes and increased fuel taxes production taxes and increased fuel taxes

Possibility of New Energy Solutions and Possibility of New Energy Solutions and Improved TechnologyImproved Technology• 100 years of scientific discoveries and 100 years of scientific discoveries and

technological innovations is unpredictable. technological innovations is unpredictable. • In the last century we created:In the last century we created:

– Autos, petroleum industryAutos, petroleum industry– AircraftAircraft– Household appliancesHousehold appliances– Mechanized industrial efficiencyMechanized industrial efficiency– Nuclear AgeNuclear Age– Electronics age: TV, computers, cell phonesElectronics age: TV, computers, cell phones– Biological Age Starting: DNA, GenomicsBiological Age Starting: DNA, Genomics– Medical diagnosis and care Medical diagnosis and care

• What lies ahead?What lies ahead?

Signs of ProgressSigns of Progress• Globally:Globally: The Kyoto Treaty went into effect in Feb. The Kyoto Treaty went into effect in Feb.

2005, with signers reducing emissions to 5% 2005, with signers reducing emissions to 5% below 1990 levels, except for developing below 1990 levels, except for developing countries which includes China. China, however, countries which includes China. China, however, with many smoggy cities, is planning 30 nuclear with many smoggy cities, is planning 30 nuclear reactors by 2020, and considering 200-300 by reactors by 2020, and considering 200-300 by 2050, including breeder and pebble bed reactors. 2050, including breeder and pebble bed reactors.

• Nationally:Nationally: Western governors committing to 20% Western governors committing to 20% renewable energy sources by 2020.renewable energy sources by 2020.

• The Hummer H3 will be their new model and will The Hummer H3 will be their new model and will resemble other SUVs in gas mileage like 20 mpg resemble other SUVs in gas mileage like 20 mpg on highway.on highway.

• GM Gen IV V-8 with cylinder shutdown technology GM Gen IV V-8 with cylinder shutdown technology to 4 cylinders to give 6-20% better fuel economy. to 4 cylinders to give 6-20% better fuel economy. Honda will apply this to V-6 also including hybrids.Honda will apply this to V-6 also including hybrids.

IV Global Warming EffectsIV Global Warming Effects• Predicted Global Warming of 5°F will affect everyone Predicted Global Warming of 5°F will affect everyone

in most structural aspects of society and in their costs.in most structural aspects of society and in their costs.• We don’t realize how our present housing, business, We don’t realize how our present housing, business,

and supply nets are closely adapted to our current and supply nets are closely adapted to our current climates. climates.

• The major increase in temperature and climate effects The major increase in temperature and climate effects such as rainfall, drought, floods, storms, and water such as rainfall, drought, floods, storms, and water supply, will affect household and business insulation, supply, will affect household and business insulation, heating and cooling energy, and farming. These may heating and cooling energy, and farming. These may require large and costly modifications.require large and costly modifications.

• Some cold areas may benefit, and some hot areas will Some cold areas may benefit, and some hot areas will become unfarmable and costly to inhabit.become unfarmable and costly to inhabit.

• It is very misleading to portray the problem as a It is very misleading to portray the problem as a purely environmentalist issue which affects only polar purely environmentalist issue which affects only polar bears, a few Pacific islanders, and butterfliesbears, a few Pacific islanders, and butterflies. .

Global Temperature Record:Global Temperature Record:Unusual 1° F Rise in the Last CenturyUnusual 1° F Rise in the Last Century

The last 160,000 The last 160,000 years (from ice years (from ice cores) and the cores) and the next 100 years:next 100 years:temperature (red) temperature (red) tracks COtracks CO22 (green).(green).

Time (thousands of years)Time (thousands of years)160160 120120 8080 4040 NowNow

––1010

00

1010

100100

200200

300300

400400

500500

600600

700700

COCO22 in 2100 in 2100(with business as usual)(with business as usual)

Double pre-industrial CODouble pre-industrial CO22

Lowest possible COLowest possible CO22stabilisation level by 2100stabilisation level by 2100

COCO22 now now

Temperature Temperature difference difference from now °Cfrom now °C

COCO22 c

once

ntra

tion

(ppm

) c

once

ntra

tion

(ppm

)

CO2 and the Kyoto TreatyCO2 and the Kyoto Treaty• The treaty just went into effect in Feb. 2005 to reduce The treaty just went into effect in Feb. 2005 to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions of developed countries to greenhouse gas emissions of developed countries to 5% below their 1990 level.5% below their 1990 level.

• The U.S., as the largest CO2 emitter in 1990 (36%), will The U.S., as the largest CO2 emitter in 1990 (36%), will not participate because it would hurt the economy, not participate because it would hurt the economy, harm domestic coal production, and cost jobs.harm domestic coal production, and cost jobs.

• China has signed the protocol, but as a developing China has signed the protocol, but as a developing country, it does not have to reduce emissions.country, it does not have to reduce emissions.

• ( In China’s defense, it only has ¼ the emissions of the ( In China’s defense, it only has ¼ the emissions of the US per capita, it has significantly lowered its birth rate, US per capita, it has significantly lowered its birth rate, and it is planning a massive nuclear reactor program.)and it is planning a massive nuclear reactor program.)

CO2 Production RateCO2 Production Rate

• Preindustrial 275 ppm CO2 will be doubled Preindustrial 275 ppm CO2 will be doubled at 550 ppm by adding 200 ppm to the at 550 ppm by adding 200 ppm to the present 350 ppm. This will happen in 65 present 350 ppm. This will happen in 65 years at the current rate.years at the current rate.

• Present burning of 240 Quads of fossil fuel Present burning of 240 Quads of fossil fuel per year can increase CO2 by 3.0 ppm per per year can increase CO2 by 3.0 ppm per year.year.

• Thus 200 ppm will be added by 67 years, Thus 200 ppm will be added by 67 years, or sooner if fuel use increases.or sooner if fuel use increases.

• Climate models have a mean prediction of Climate models have a mean prediction of an increased temperature of 5° F for this an increased temperature of 5° F for this doubling of CO2.doubling of CO2.

Comparative World CO2 Comparative World CO2 EmissionsEmissions

Global Warming ScenarioGlobal Warming Scenario• Greenhouse gases: COGreenhouse gases: CO22 ,methane, and nitrous oxide ,methane, and nitrous oxide• Already heat world to average 60° F, rather than 0° F without an Already heat world to average 60° F, rather than 0° F without an

atmosphereatmosphere• The present radiation imbalance will cause another 1° F heating The present radiation imbalance will cause another 1° F heating

by 2050, even without more greenhouse gas emissions.by 2050, even without more greenhouse gas emissions.• Recent cleaning of air is causing the earth’s surface to be hotter Recent cleaning of air is causing the earth’s surface to be hotter

and brighter.and brighter.• Doubling of CO2Doubling of CO2 projected by end of century, causing ~5° F projected by end of century, causing ~5° F

increase in average temperature (most rapid change in over increase in average temperature (most rapid change in over 10,000 years)10,000 years)– ~2-3 foot sea level rise~2-3 foot sea level rise– More storms and fiercer onesMore storms and fiercer ones– Loss of coral reefsLoss of coral reefs– Increase in tropical diseasesIncrease in tropical diseases– 25% decline in species that cannot shift range25% decline in species that cannot shift range– Possible removal of Gulf Stream, causing ice age in Northern EuropePossible removal of Gulf Stream, causing ice age in Northern Europe– Warming over land expected to be greaterWarming over land expected to be greater– Hot areas expect greater evaporation from hotter windsHot areas expect greater evaporation from hotter winds

• Stabilizing the amount of COStabilizing the amount of CO2 2 would require a reduction to only 5% would require a reduction to only 5% to 10% of present fossil fuel emissionsto 10% of present fossil fuel emissions

Global Warming EffectsGlobal Warming Effects• Global Warming is an average measureGlobal Warming is an average measure• Local warming or climate fluctuations can be very Local warming or climate fluctuations can be very

significantsignificant• Arctic is 5° warmerArctic is 5° warmer

– Ice cap is ½ the thickness of 30 years agoIce cap is ½ the thickness of 30 years ago• Antarctic is 5° warmerAntarctic is 5° warmer

– Ice shelves over the sea are melting and breaking off Ice shelves over the sea are melting and breaking off and may allow the 10,000 foot thick ice sheet over and may allow the 10,000 foot thick ice sheet over Antarctica to slide off the continent fasterAntarctica to slide off the continent faster

– This would cause a sea level riseThis would cause a sea level rise• An analogous local effect is that while ozone is affected An analogous local effect is that while ozone is affected

everywhere, there is a seasonal ozone hole over everywhere, there is a seasonal ozone hole over AntarcticaAntarctica

• Rainfall is hard to predict. It could be increased or Rainfall is hard to predict. It could be increased or decreased.decreased.

• Drought can partly be caused by increased evaporation Drought can partly be caused by increased evaporation at the higher temperature.at the higher temperature.

CO2 Effects to Increase Over CO2 Effects to Increase Over CenturiesCenturies

GW effects on CaliforniaGW effects on California• Summer temperatures rise by 4-8° F by 2100 Summer temperatures rise by 4-8° F by 2100

for low emission scenario: 8-15° F for higher for low emission scenario: 8-15° F for higher emissions.emissions.

• Heat waves will be more common, more Heat waves will be more common, more intense, and last longer.intense, and last longer.

• Spring snowpacks in the Sierra could decline Spring snowpacks in the Sierra could decline by 70-90%, as winters will be warmer.by 70-90%, as winters will be warmer.

• Agriculture, including wine and dairy, could Agriculture, including wine and dairy, could be affected by water shortages and higher be affected by water shortages and higher temperatures.temperatures.

• More forest fires.More forest fires.• Tree rings show that in eras of global Tree rings show that in eras of global

warming, megadroughts of decades hit the warming, megadroughts of decades hit the southwest US.southwest US.

U.S. Carbon emission sourcesU.S. Carbon emission sources

Energy ResearchEnergy Research• For comparison, the European Union is For comparison, the European Union is

completing a $1 billion program on completing a $1 billion program on renewable energy to end in 2006, and renewable energy to end in 2006, and expects double that afterwards to 2010.expects double that afterwards to 2010.

• In 2005, the US will spend $1 billion, but In 2005, the US will spend $1 billion, but mostly at national labs (mostly at national labs (DOE National Renewable Energy LaboratoryDOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Colorado in Colorado), but university funding is “bleak”. ), but university funding is “bleak”.

• Stanford has a Stanford has a Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP) Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP) of of $225 million over ten years from industry.$225 million over ten years from industry.

Climate Satellite Research Climate Satellite Research SetbacksSetbacks

Also, 4 years of data from the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite is unanalyzed for lack of funds.

What can California Do?What can California Do?• California is the world’s fifth largest economy, and has California is the world’s fifth largest economy, and has

led the way on reducing vehicle pollution before.led the way on reducing vehicle pollution before.• State law for utilities to increase renewable electricity to State law for utilities to increase renewable electricity to

20% by 2017. Can increase and extend to city power.20% by 2017. Can increase and extend to city power.• BEWARE: Million solar roof initiative will spend $23 BEWARE: Million solar roof initiative will spend $23

billion to create the power of only half a nuclear reactor.billion to create the power of only half a nuclear reactor.• Use combined heat and electricity systems in large Use combined heat and electricity systems in large

plants.plants.• Clean up older, high polluting plants.Clean up older, high polluting plants.• Mass transit and growth planning.Mass transit and growth planning.• Removing firewood in forests and increasing them as a Removing firewood in forests and increasing them as a

carbon storage component.carbon storage component.• See Union of Concerned Scientists: See Union of Concerned Scientists:

www.climatechange.orgwww.climatechange.org• Unfortunately, they leave out a nuclear plant option.Unfortunately, they leave out a nuclear plant option.

Signs of ProgressSigns of Progress• Nationally: Nationally: US reducing off-road vehicle diesel US reducing off-road vehicle diesel

emission 90% by 2010.emission 90% by 2010.• California:California: Committing to lower greenhouse Committing to lower greenhouse

emission fuel in new autos by 30% by 2016.emission fuel in new autos by 30% by 2016.• Seven northeastern states likely to follow this (Seven northeastern states likely to follow this (NY, NY,

NJNJ). ). • CanadaCanada demanding 25% reduction in new cars by demanding 25% reduction in new cars by

end of this decade.end of this decade.• CA estimates cost of $1,000 per vehicle with CA estimates cost of $1,000 per vehicle with

continuously variable transmission, alternative AC continuously variable transmission, alternative AC coolant, and engines that shut off cylinders. coolant, and engines that shut off cylinders.

• A 20% reduction in GW gasses with existing A 20% reduction in GW gasses with existing technology would pay off in fuel cost savings in technology would pay off in fuel cost savings in three years of driving.three years of driving.

• Zero Emission Vehicle regulation will generate Zero Emission Vehicle regulation will generate 200,000 hybrids per year by 2015.200,000 hybrids per year by 2015.

Conclusions on Energy and GWConclusions on Energy and GW• At current or increased rates of production, oil and natural At current or increased rates of production, oil and natural

gas will be gone in 50 years or so, and will be expensive gas will be gone in 50 years or so, and will be expensive long before that.long before that.

• Production of oil from coal and tar sands could be Production of oil from coal and tar sands could be somewhat expensive.somewhat expensive.

• Use of coal for electricity would highly pollute smog prone Use of coal for electricity would highly pollute smog prone areas.areas.

• With the high costs of fuel and of fuel conversion or With the high costs of fuel and of fuel conversion or substitution, the costs of global warming should be added substitution, the costs of global warming should be added in to promote alternate energy sources, including nuclear in to promote alternate energy sources, including nuclear power.power.

• Global warming will continue until we drop fossil fuel use to Global warming will continue until we drop fossil fuel use to a small fraction of its present rate.a small fraction of its present rate.

• The costs of relocation, substitution, extreme weather, The costs of relocation, substitution, extreme weather, increased deaths, and diminishing fuel will soon exceed the increased deaths, and diminishing fuel will soon exceed the costs of developing alternate energy sources.costs of developing alternate energy sources.

• The sooner we act in research and development, and The sooner we act in research and development, and conservation and conversion, the easier and less costly the conservation and conversion, the easier and less costly the transition will be.transition will be.

The Invisibility of Modern Energy The Invisibility of Modern Energy and Global Warmingand Global Warming

• In ancient times we gathered firewood and watched it burn. With In ancient times we gathered firewood and watched it burn. With steam powered transportation we saw the coal loaded and steam powered transportation we saw the coal loaded and burned, and the steam go off.burned, and the steam go off.

• Today, we pump gas invisibly, and burn it with no visible emission.Today, we pump gas invisibly, and burn it with no visible emission.• We don’t see the oil being pumped from the ground, although we We don’t see the oil being pumped from the ground, although we

can see tankers in the harbor and refineries. We don’t see it can see tankers in the harbor and refineries. We don’t see it flowing through pipelines.flowing through pipelines.

• We don’t see the electricity powering our houses except through We don’t see the electricity powering our houses except through light, and don’t monitor its usage. We usually don’t see the power light, and don’t monitor its usage. We usually don’t see the power plants. We often don’t even see power lines to our houses.plants. We often don’t even see power lines to our houses.

• In natural gas heating we don’t see the gas burn or the heater and In natural gas heating we don’t see the gas burn or the heater and we don’t monitor it.we don’t monitor it.

• The greenhouse gases are invisible to us so we can’t see their The greenhouse gases are invisible to us so we can’t see their emission or buildup.emission or buildup.

• Their effects on temperature show up globally with careful Their effects on temperature show up globally with careful averaging, and often in subtle effects.averaging, and often in subtle effects.

• Any particular warming area or period is hard to precisely Any particular warming area or period is hard to precisely attribute to global warming.attribute to global warming.

• Eventually global warming effects will be more prevalent, after Eventually global warming effects will be more prevalent, after much of its prevention period is gone.much of its prevention period is gone.

Cost of Conversion to Industry Cost of Conversion to Industry (and Consumers) – Order of (and Consumers) – Order of magnitudemagnitude

• At $50/barrel for oil, we are currently sending $100 billion per At $50/barrel for oil, we are currently sending $100 billion per year to foreign oil sources.year to foreign oil sources.

• The 1The 1stst gulf war required our presence to retake Kuwait and gulf war required our presence to retake Kuwait and defend Saudi Arabia for their oil resources.defend Saudi Arabia for their oil resources.

• The 2The 2ndnd gulf war (Iraq) may be costing us $100 billion per year gulf war (Iraq) may be costing us $100 billion per year at present, to someday make available more oil resources.at present, to someday make available more oil resources.

• Even if nuclear reactors cost as much as $5 billion each, we Even if nuclear reactors cost as much as $5 billion each, we could build 40 nuclear plants a year with this money. could build 40 nuclear plants a year with this money.

• Since nuclear is 20% of our electricity with 100 plants, in 10 Since nuclear is 20% of our electricity with 100 plants, in 10 years of such payments we could produce 400 more plants years of such payments we could produce 400 more plants and have 100% of our electricity nuclear.and have 100% of our electricity nuclear.

• Then we could start building a nuclear generated hydrogen Then we could start building a nuclear generated hydrogen economy for transportation with no COeconomy for transportation with no CO22 pollution. pollution.

• The economics is similar to the question of renting versus The economics is similar to the question of renting versus owning.owning.

• The costs of building and operating U.S. plants also go to The costs of building and operating U.S. plants also go to American workers, not overseas.American workers, not overseas.

• So we are already spending the magnitude of funds necessary So we are already spending the magnitude of funds necessary to convert, but not accomplishing it.to convert, but not accomplishing it.