Global Warming Climate Change Physics - DfR Soft Warming Climate Change Physics.pdf · • Global Warming Due to Hydro-Hotspots (New!!) 73 • Suggestions and Final Thoughts 76-77

Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft

Global Warming Climate Change

Physics

Alec Feinberg, Ph.D.

DfRSoft

December 11, 2019

This Presentation is Posted

on Youtube

(Slides & Calculator Available at https://www.dfrsoft.com/DfR_Articles.html

1

Author

Including:

• Albedo Modeling

• Global Warming Due to

Hydro-Hotspots, New!

https://www.dfrsoft.com/DfR_Articles.html


Physics Strategy - What Changed?

• 1950 2019-2020

• Average Temp=57F Average Temp=58.6F

• Earth Albedo 29% Earth Albedo 28.8%

• 57F Greenhouse Effect 58.6F Greenhouse Effect

• Fossil Fuel Heating 1950 Fossil Fuel Heating 2019

• Population 1950 Population 2019

• 1950 440 Million Years Ago

• Avg. Temp 300 PPM CO2 Avg. Temp 2000 PPM CO2

• Earth Albedo 29% Earth Albedo 42%

• 1950 2019

Human Forcing Unrelated to CO2

Hot Spots City Roads Albedo Modeling + Moisture Modeling

Global Warming Due to Hydro-Hotspots New! Alternative Solutions

2

PART 2 – The Skeptics “William Happer” on CO2 Right yet Wrong!

PART 1- Basic GW Physics

PART 3: Albedo Modeling of Hot Spots, Moisture Modeling & Hydro-Hotspots


Index • DfRSoft Physics Model 4

• Summary of Findings 5

• Global Warming Risk Math 7

• Part I Basic Physics of Global Warming 8

• Energy Budget 1950 10

• 1950 With Green House Gasses 16

• Energy Budget 2019 21

• 2019 With Green House Gasses 28

• IR Escape Altitude 31

• Fossile Fuel Contribution To GW 32

• CO2 440 Million Years Ago, Why William Happer is Wrong 39

• Human Forcing & CO2 48

• Part III – Human Forcing Unrelated to CO2 50

• Modeling Albedo of Cities & Roads 51

• What is Surface Area of Cities 62

• Effects of Moisture 67

• Humidity Correlation to Global Warming 71

• Drought & Wet Lands 72

• Global Warming Due to Hydro-Hotspots (New!!) 73

• Suggestions and Final Thoughts 76-77

• References 79

3

Subject Slide Number


Summary of Findings & Tools • GW data is the Bottom Line – predictions of temperature rise, Ocean Rising

Effects, and Ecological hardships are unfortunately difficult to deny that Climate change is rapidly occurring

• Global Warming Conclusions/Solutions – 1. Reduce Earth’s Population (Most Important, negative population growth reduces)

– 2. Reduce Fossil Fuels (Greenhouse gasses)

– 3. Other Important Issues Besides CO2 Required to fix global warming

– 4. Need to Improve to stop Albedo forcing due to City & Roads Albedo

– 5. Albedo forcing created warming, along with Hydro-Hotspot Evaporation in Cities

– 6. Human Forcing of Albedo & Humidity Change (likely create GW (NEW!)

• CO2 Possibly not the Main Reason for Human Forcing – We can explain using Albedo Increase – Moisture Effect –why William Happer,

president Trumps global warming advisor is wrong.

– Yet can’t dismiss the fact that CO2 may not be the problem due to some physics

• DfRSoft Global Warming Excel Calculators (free to download). – Simplified Modeling

– Comparisons at two different times, Albedo Modeling, CO2 Doubling Modeling

– Water Vapor Vs CO2

4


Simplified DfRSoft Model

Earth Heating= Ptotal =PNo GH + P GH =sT4

Where

PNo GH =Eo { 0.25 x (1-Albedo) }

P GH = f PNo GH , Due to greenhouse gasses

Ptotal = sT4 Power required to achieve average temperature of Year

Sun Energy Eo=1361 W/m2

Albedo=0.29 (in 1950, see references at end for this number)

Albedo=0.288 (in 2020)

0.25 Typical for fraction of Sun light illuminating Earth

f= Frac. GH Power Emitted Back=Obtained at 57oF for 1950

f= Frac. GH Power Emitted Back= Obtained at 58.6 oF for 2019

Fossil Fuel Burning Energy (usually negligible as found)

HHS=Hydro-Hotspots

5


Global Warming Due to

Hydro-Hotspots - Human Forcing of

Humidity Change

• Reference:

• Pre-print: Alec. Feinberg, DfRSoft, Global Warming Due to Albedo & Humidity Hydro-Hotspots Forcing

• Cornell on Line: Vixra 1910.0002 (Nov.-Dec 4 2019)

• Submitted: Journal, Climate Change

– Global Warming Due to Hydro-Hotspots, Dec 5, 2019

6


Global Warming (GW) Risk Mathematics

• Risk = Probability of Failure x Severity

• To Quantify

– If you are a 99% GW disbeliever (Prob. of Fail=1%)

– Severity = World Population 7.7 x 109

• GW Risk = 1% x 7.7 Billion People=77 Million

People

• This is the risk if we do nothing

• Conclusion: Better Safe Than Sorry

7


Part 1: Basic Physics of Global

Warming

8


Modeling Energy Absorbed

9


Review Earth Energy Budget and

Temperature in 1950 Before 3rd

Industrial Revolution

10


Earth’s Albedo Effect - a measure of how much solar radiation is

reflected from Earth's surface. Earth Average in 1950 was 29%

Earth’s Albedo Effect

Earth’s Reflectivity Albedo 29%

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Energy Budget Calculation 1950

½ of Earth is irradiated, another ½ is lost due to sphere effect

Percent available for absorbed is then ¼

Average Earth Albedo is 0.29 – Reflectivity (see References)

Power Absorbed = 0.71 x 0.25x 1361 W/m2

=241.58 Watts/m2

12

Reflectivity 29%


Convert Energy to Temperature

Black Body Radiation

& DfRSoft Simplified Model

s=5.670367×10−8 W. m−2⋅K−4

13

PTotal= Eo {0.25 x 1-Albedo) + fGreenhouse Energy} =sT4

PTotal= Eo {Rfactor} =sT4

Neglecting Fossil Fuels DfRSoft Model:

Rfactor = (0.25 x 1-Albedo) + fGreenhouse Energy

Rfactor no GH= 0.25 x (1-0.29) =0.1775


Energy Budget Temperature 1950

Without Greenhouse Effect

E=sT4=241.58 W/m2

s=5.670367×10−8 W. m−2⋅K−4

T4=241.58 W/m2/5.67E-8 T=255.5K~0.2oF Cold

E=sT4=241.58 W/m2

T=255.5K~0.2oF Cold

14


DfRSoft Calculator for Earth’s Energy

Budget without Greenhouse Effect • Inputs Green Area, Applicable in Red

Energy Earth Absorbs

Earth’s Temperatures from This Power Absorbed

15


Add Greenhouse Gasses

16


Sun (Solar) Radiation, IR GH gas Absorption • We note that greenhouse gasses do not absorb sunlight

photons, essentially transparent to light.

• However, when the Earth absorbs sunlight, it re-radiates infrared photons (heat), this heat radiation has different wavelengths then the sunlight. In this area.

17

of the spectrum, the

greenhouse gasses can absorb

radiation. GH gasses absorb a

certain wavelength, then re-

emit radiation of the same

wavelength in arbitrary

directions, some back to Earth

and some to outer space.

Earth absorbs sunlight Radiates Infrared

SUN IR


1950 Average Temperature was 57oF

with Greenhouse Effect

Here we deduce that the

greenhouse power must be

143.26W/m2 to obtain

an average T=57oF

E=sT4=241.58+143.26 =384.8 W/m2

Where

s=5.670367×10−8 W. m−2⋅K−4

Then T4=384.8 W/m2/5.67E-8 TSurface=287K=57F

E=sT4=241.58+143.26=384.8 W/m2

TSurface=287oK=57oF

241.58W/m2

143.26 W/m2 W Emitted Back

We see that 143.26/241.58=0.593

18

IR Escapes 241.58W/m2

255.5oK (about 7375 feet)

H2O CO2

H2O

CO2 CO2

H2O

Sun


DfRSoft Calculator Model

Requirements to Obtain 1950

Greenhouse Temperature of 57oF

Required % of Energy Budget Reflected back (143.2) by Greenhouse gasses To obtain average Temperature of 57oF

• Inputs Green Area, Applicable in Red

19


DfRSoft Simplified Model Parameter 1950

20

Ptotal =PNo GH + P GH , Total power required to obtain Tavg=57oF

PTotal= Eo { 0.25 x (1-Albedo) [1+ fGreenhouse Energy] } =sT4

PTotal= Eo {0.1775 [1+.0.56}]}=Eo{0.1775+0.1053}=PNo GH + P GH

PTotal = 241.58+142.9=384.83 W/M2 =sT4

Solving -> T=57oF

Eo=1361 W/M2

PNo GH =241 W/M2 ,Power obtain Earth Sun and Albed no GH gasses

P GH =142.9 W/M2, GH Power must be emitted back to obtain Tavg=57oF

PTotal = 384.83 W/M2 =sT4 Total power required to obtain Tavg=57oF



Temperature in 2019

21



Temperature in 2020 Since industrial

revolution

22

• Surface thermometers

• Satellite temperatures

• Ice is melting

• Ocean heat is increasing

• Sea Levels are Rising

2019 - How do we Know Temperature Has Increased?


Global Warming Trend • A 0.89oC Rise

Corresponds to a 1.6oF Rise

• 1950 Average Temp 57oF

• 2019-2020 Average Temp=58.6oF

23


Energy Budget Calculation 2019

Here we make add a slight change by decreasing the

Average Earth Albedo to 0.288 – Bit less Reflectivity

to study the effect. There is reason to believe it is less in 2019

compared to 1950 due to ice melting, Cities, Asphalt roads, pollution.

Power Absorbed = 0.712 x 0.25 x 1361 W/m2

=242.26 Watts/m2

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Reflectivity 28.8%


Energy Budget Temperature 2019

Without Greenhouse Effect

E=sT4=242.26 W/m2

s=5.670367×10−8 W. m−2⋅K−4

T4=242.26 W/m2/5.67E-8 T=255.66K~0.52oF 0.32oF Warmer than 1950

E=sT4=242.26 W/m2

T=255.66K~0.52/oF This is 0.32oF Warmer than 1950 due to very small decrease in Albedo

25


Earth Albedo In Decline • When cities replace natural vegetation, the area usually becomes

much hotter. Climatologists call this effect an urban heat island. Other Major factors most obvious is pollution and Asphalt (Albedo=.04) roads, parking lots, buildings etc.

• Cities of > million people can be 1-3oC (1.8-5.4oF) warmer

• With the exception of Antarctic sea-ice, recently increasing by 1% a year, nearly all the ice (Albedo=0.6) on the planet is melting. As the white snow (Albedo=0.85) surfaces decrease in area, less energy is reflected into space, and the Earth will warm up even more.

26


DfRSoft Calculator for Earth’s Energy Budget without Greenhouse Effect

2020 with Small Decrease to Albedo

Energy Earth Absorbs 2020

Earth’s Temperatures is 0.52F from 28.8 Albedo. Compared to 29% Albedo of 0.2F. It is 0.32F higher due to only 0.2% decline

Small Change to Earth Albedo from 0.29 to 0.288


DfRSoft Model Requirements to Obtain

2020 Greenhouse Temperature of 58.6oF

Required % of Energy Budget emitted back (147.37) by Greenhouse gasses To obtain average Temperature of 58.6oF

• Inputs Green Area, Applicable in Red

28


2019 Average Temperature is 58.6oF

with Greenhouse Effect

Here we deduce that the

greenhouse power must be

147.05 W/m2 to obtain

an average T=58.6oF

E=sT4=242.3+147.37

=389.7 W/m2

Where

s=5.670367×10−8 W. m−2⋅K−4

Then

T4=389.7 W/m2/5.67E-8

TSurface=287.9K=58.6F

We see that 147.4/242.3=0.608

See Model

29

E=sT4=242.3+147.37=389. W/m2

TSurface=287.9oK=58.6oF

242.3W/m2

147.37 W/m2 W

Emitted Back

IR Escapes 242.3W/m2

255.7oK (about 7375 feet)

H2O CO2

H2O

CO2 CO2

H2O

Sun


What Was The Climate Change 1950-2019? • Temperature Increase 1.6oF

• Increase in Emitted Power Back to Earth

– 4.1W/M2 (=147.4-143.3)

• CO2 Levels 1950, 313PPM

• CO2 Levels in 2019, 410 PPM

• Moisture Levels in air

also increased due to evaporation

• Earth Albedo Changed + CO2

+ moisture, (more greenhouse gasses

of CO2 and H2O yield the higher emitted

back radiation)

30


Altitude Vs. Temperature • As you add greenhouse gasses you change the the IR

escape height

• Neglecting 2019 albedo change

31

Specific Humidity

C02 (300PPM) Other (1.4%)

Specific Humidity +

C02 (400PPM)

Other (1.4%+)

2019 1950

242 W/M2~255K~~0.2C 242 W/M2~255K~0.2C

IR Escape Altitude >7375 Feet IR Escape Altitude >7375 Feet+

CO2 human emissions (HE-factories & Cars) and absorption (HA -deforestation)

and natural emissions (NE-volcano) and absorption (NA-trees) separately.

DCO2=NE + HE – NA - HA


Summary 1950 to 2019 Greenhouse Effect

• A small decrease in Earth Albedo from 0.29 to 0.288 created a change of 0.32oF (=0.52-0.2) increase

• An addition Greenhouse change of reflected power back to Earth created a change of 1.08oF

• DTemp. Increase= DAlbedo Decline + Dgreenhouse CO2 +H2O= 0.32oF+0.42oF+0.86oF=1.6oF

• The Additional Greenhouse power reflected to create the 1.6oF Change was only 4.1W/M2 (=147.4-143.3) in 2019 compared with 1950.

• This is the reason scientist feel CO2 is the key issue since one must ask, “What Else Has Changed?”

• Hydro-Hotspots discussion at end

32


Could this change be simply from the

effect of fossil fuel heat increase into

the Earths Atmosphere?

What about its byproduct CO2

33


Estimated Fossil Fuel Burned in 2017

• This is the estimated amount used in a year

of the three Fossil Fuels

To convert to Watts/M2 we must divide by hours in a year 8760 and Earth’s surface area to average it out. (We can include some efficiency not all converted to heat).

34


DfRSoft Model of IR Emissions Due to

Fossil Fuel • We provide some rough estimate of the percent of Fuel turned into

heat and use 40% of heat escaping from prior model

• Result appear to be a negligible amount of contribution to global warming in 2017 of 0.0125 W/m2 compared to 348 W/m2 this is negligible. We take it to be 0.1 W/m2 estimated from 2020 due to energy increases and other possible energy sources such as nuclear. 35


Amount Fossil fuel Used Per Year

36

https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels





Estimate in Joules of Fossil Fuel Use

37


Energy Production in Watts

38


What Does this Say About CO2

• Fossil fuels influence on Global Warming is Miniscule in terms of Global Warming energy

• Yet the byproduct of this miniscule energy, CO2, is suppose to be responsible for a Major global energy change

• Not being an expert in this area, this fact does seem to require some explanation

39

Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft 40

Part 2:

High CO2 Levels 440 Million Years

Ago During Cold Glaciations

Explained

i.e. Why Didn’t the Earth Get Hot??

Why William Happer is Likely Wrong


CO2 Effect 440 Million Years Ago

Explained

41

• Ancient ice-cap formations & ice-ages called

"glaciations." occurred 440 million years ago

• Captured the attention of climate skeptics.

• The main reason CO2 levels were high but

temperatures on Earth were Cold – with

Glaciation (snow & Ice)?



Explained

• Many skeptics

• Especially William Happer (former Prof.

Princeton U.) President Trumps hired

Environmental man to disprove Human forced

climate change

• How do we analyze his view this using GW

Physics?

42



Explained

• Take CO2 Levels 2000 PPM, 440 Million

Years Ago

• Global average temperature 57oF in 1950, with

CO2 is 300 PPM Level

• Use Manabe S.; Wetherald R. T. (May 1967).

Estimate that we get a 2.3oC Rise Every

doubling of CO2

• Another Model Gillbert Plass 1950’s 3.6oC

43


Temperature Rise 440 Million Years

Ago Due to 2000 PPM CO2

• We seen going from 300 to 2000 PPM would

create a 8.5oC (15.5oF) temperature rise using

the doubling model of 3oC

44


Albedo Model 1950 to 440 Mil Yrs Ago

• Consider just an Albedo Change, The DfRSoft weighted Albedo Model below for 1950 yields 29%

45

1950

1950 Albedo 29%


Albedo Model 1950 to 440 Mil Yrs Ago • 440 Mil Yrs ago, may have had a higher average water reflectivity due to more

Ice in the Open Ocean we see that a change from 0.06 to 0.6 yeilds and Albedo of 42% Globally. Another possible reason is clouds due to colder planet weather less latent heat of evaporation

46

400 Mil Yrs Ago

440 MY Albedo 42%


Albedo Effect from Glaciation Period

set at 42% in Model

47

• Earths temperature with 42% Albedo is

35.8oF +14.8oF=50.6oF • We see Albedo is only one possible explanation, less moisture is

another, we do not know the climate 440 Mil Yrs ago. The evidence

for CO2 of 2000PPM may be Ok because it is trapped in glacier as

evidence, but how about less moisture and clouds in the sky which

would be less greenhouse moisture gas.


Conclusion

• Even though CO2 Levels 440 Million Years Ago may have been 2000 PPM yielding an estimated 15.5oF increase this could have been offset by an increase in Albedo from 30% to 42%.

• Albedo increase is highly likely due to Glaciation period

• As well less moisture may have occurred in the atmosphere yielding less greenhouse gas of moisture

• William Happer, GW advising to President Trump is proving incorrect information to the public, not taking into account Albedo & Moisture Climate Offset effect.

48


Global Warming Human C02 Forcing

• Human use of fossil fuel creating global warming

means simply

• Warming=Number of People x Warming

Energy/Person

• Called CO2 emissions per Capita

• Climatologist deduce it is due to CO2 when we

ask, What has changed?

• How about Hydro-Hotspots

49


Population Growth & CO2 Emissions

50


What About CO2 Levels Compared to H2O vapor

• CO2 Levels since 1950 have increased from 300 to 400 PPM (Change of 100 PPM

• Water vapor is around 25,000 PPM and because of our climate, its change is hard to measure

• Climatologist surmise the only CO2 changed and water vapor increase is only due to CO2 warming causeing ocean evaporation effects

• Yet we know other changes must occur, namely Albedo forcing in cities and roads, creating evaporation forcing – perhaps between albedo change and Hydro-hotspots, this is the reason.

51


• Outline:

– Modeling Albedo of Cities & Roads

• global warming maybe more due to Cities and Roads

than CO2

– Humidity Modeling – Strong correlation to global

warming – Drought Aspects

– Hydro-Hotspots – Evaporation from hot surfaces

52

Part III

Human Forcing Unrelated to CO2


Modeling Albedo of Cities & Roads

Is Global warming more due to Cities and

Roads than CO2?

53


Human Forcing Due to

Hotspots & Hydro-Hotspots

Albedo Modeling

54


Climatologist Are Really Not Bringing

Hotspot Issues Forward

• Here we disagree for two reasons

– Modeling shows that hotspots radiation can create

significant temperature change

• Albedo Effects Both Heat and Specific

Humidity Reasons

– Albedo heating from roads & cities

– Moisture evaporation creating more water vapor

greenhouse gasses responsible for re-radiating heat

55


Warm Mixed Asphalt (WMA) Yearly

Increase – Painting Land Black!

56


Increase Use of Materials for

Buildings & Roads

57

2006

Ref: USGS, Materials in Use in U.S. Interstate Highways, https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2006/3127/2006-3127.pdf


Heat-Albedo Decrease

• First lets assess increase in global warming

due just to heat increase of albedo decrease

• What if

– We change roads and cities to be more reflective

58


DfRSoft Global Weighted Model 1950 Albedo 29%

59

Using this model we obtain 29%

This was used in our Global Warming Model

59

1950 Albedo 29%


DfRSoft Global Albedo Modeling?

60

(% )i ii

Earth Weighted Albedo

Earth Area x Surface Item Albedo

=

{( % ) ( )}

GlobalWeighted Albedo

Average Clouds Albedo x Coverage Earth Weighted Albedo

=

• Very Simplified Albedo Model

–

–


Thermal Images of Urban Hotspots

61

Albedo White Paint=0.8 (looks like ~93F) Albedo of Asphalt =.04 (looks like ~103F)


DfRSoft Global Weighted Model 2019 Albedo 28.8%?

62

This was arbitrary number we simply said

Likely decline in albedo

62

2019 Albedo 28.8%


Albedo Change of 0.2%

• Albedo Decrease 29 to 28.8% Albedo creats a 0.32oF temperature rise

• This was without greenhouse gasses 0.32oF out of 1.6oF is already responsible for 20%

• This will correspond to more moisture in the air absorbing more heat

• We are only talking about 4 W/M2 of global increase

• What percent is due to added moisture??

63


What is the Surface Area of Cities?

64

• This is very hard to estimate.

• Let’s assume each building sides equate to 10x the bottom

surface area due to having 4 sides and their height. Assume

now that buildings take up 45% of a cities area.

• Now it is estimated that 1.2% of the Earth surface are cities.

• Then we have 1.2%x55%+1.2%x45%x10=6% of the Earth’s

surface worldwide,

• Cities increase the solar surface area of the Earth as we mine

materials and reshape the surface of the Earth.

–


City Surface Area (Cont.)

• Assume surface of city is 50% exposed to sunlight

• Then

• 6% x 50%=3%

• Now the surface of the Earth is larger (101.8%) went

from 1.2%* to 3% increase in cities surfaces.

• We need to renormalize

• So 3%x100%/101.8%=2.95% for example, all

surface require renormalized.

65

*1950 value, cities 0.48% yields (0.48%*0.55+.48%*0.45*10)x50%=1.2%


DfRSoft Global Weighted Model 2019 Albedo 28.69%?

66

Here we changed Urban Cov to 3.4, this gave us

Area of Earth 102.2% so then we renormalized

The new surface areas to this value. Urban Cov. 3.33%

66

New 2019 Albedo Estimate 28.69%


What if We Now Improved Albedo Cities

& Roads to 0.5 in 2019

67

Here we changed new surface area of Earth

Cities & Roads more reflective to 0.5

67

New 2019 Albedo Estimate

29.43%


Summary of Just Albedo Changes

to Cities & Roads From 1950

68

• We see two key observations: 1. Actual shift from 1950 may be 0.5oF (0.7-0.2) due to Cities

& Road increases which is 33% responsible for global warming

Agreement with other authors (see my Vixra paper)

2. If we change reflectivity to 0.5 of cities and roads, total budget shift is 1.3oF {0.7-(-0.5)}almost solves global warming problem

3. Due to improvements of specific humidity (see next section), it should actually solve the problem entirely


Effect of Moisture

• How moisture effects global warming

• Dry Vs. Wet Lands and Drought

69


Human Forcing of Moisture May be

Worse Climate Issue

• Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas

• Human forcing of water vapor influence on atmospheric

concentrations due to deforestation, building of cities, creating

hotspot evaporation.

• The surface warming leads to an increase in atmospheric water

vapor because warmer temperatures. This creates a “feedback

loop” in which warming leads to more warming with ocean

effects for example.

70


Humidity Data to GW Trends

71

Specific humidity and global warming trends from two different agencies

Ref: Andy May, Does Global Wrming increase total atmospheric water vapor

(TPW)? June 2018, https://andymaypetrophysicist.com/2018/06/09/does-global-

warming-increase-total-atmospheric-water-vapor-tpw/


Moisture is Tied to Global Warming

Likely is The Biggest Problem? • Specific humidity is

increasing yet RH is not, warmer temperatures expands air holds more moisture

• Ref: M. P. Byrne and P. A. O’Gorman, Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming, Proc. Of the National Academy of Sciences, April 23, 2018. https://www.pnas.org/content/115/19/4863

72


Humidity Correlation to Global Warming

73

Byrne et. al paper - Relationships one Can deduce from their paper

General Relationships that I played around with deduces from Byrne paper

GWL=Temp Glob. Warm. Over land, hL=specific humidity, rL=relative humidity


Decrease in Wet Lands Correlations to

Dry Days - Study Southwestern Europe

74

Ref: M. Hirshi, S.I. Seneviratne, V Alexandrov, F. Boberg, C. Boroneant, O.B. Christensen, H. Formayer, B. Orlowsky

& P. Stepanek, Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe, Nature

Geoscience 4, 17-21 (2011).

Bottom Line:

When cities replace wet lands

And drain rain water runoff far

away to Ocean, it can create more

dry days & possibly drought.

For more reference on this see my

Paper, Vixra 1910.0002


Global Warming Due to Hydro-

HotSpots (HHS)

• Hotspots combined with rain create

evaporation GH moisture gas

• This is HHS

• Look at Highly Evaporating Surfaces

• Rain Water Management

75


Feedback HHS Highly Evaporation Surface (HES) Global Warming

Low Albedo City & Road IR Heating Increase, Global Warming Increase

Precipitation

Sun

HHS-Highly Evaporating Surfaces Emission of Water Vapor GH Gas

Ocean Warming

Specific Humidity

Global Warming

Water Vapor &

CO2

Loss Water Storage in Soil, Dryness, Prone to Drought

High Kinetic Energy, %RH Decrease, Specific Hum. Increase

Global Warming

Albedo Forcing, HHS

Humidity Forcing


Feedback Rain Water Management (RWM) Global Warming

Precipitation

Low Albedo City and Urban, Car surfaces, HHS-RWM Drainage

Global Warming

More Water Vapor

Ocean Warming

Specific Humidity Rise

Global Warming

Water Vapor &

CO2 Loss Water Storage in Soil, Land

Dryness, Prone to Drought

Warmer Local Runoff Water Increase Water Surface Evaporation

& Humidity, Decrease %RH

Warmer % to Local Streams, Ocean


HHS Evaporation Area Effect

78

A simplified expression for the equivalent HHS-HES area (see Reference)

Where

AEfHES=Effective HHS-HES area,

ASoil=soil area, this is set equal to an equivalent to AHES area, subtracte from

AHES-%IG any % run off of irrigated water falling on the roads or city surface areas to

vegetation areas

tSoil is the evaporation time of the soil

tHES is the evaporation time of the asphalt or city surface after precipitation occurs.

Example: if it takes a road 2 hours to evaporate a volume of water from a road,

while it take soil 48 hours to evaporate the same amount of water in soil, than the

effective soil land lost is a factor of 24 times contributing to the evaporation rate and

specific humidity. This example is for roads with zero percent irrigation-equivalent

area running off water to adjacent land.


Hydro-Hotspot Suggestions • Further studies are needed to understand the effect of HHS to GW

• Change Albedo of roads and cities will reducing HHS and the area effect dramatically,

i.e. paint roads and building with reflective colors (minimally higher than albedo of

0.25)

• Engineering roads to be more HHS eco-friendly

• Reduce driving speeds during rain to reduce evaporation rates can also reduce KE

molecules

• Change to electric cars with HHS - cooler hoods

• Paint all cars metallic or white (high reflective colors)

• Move car engines to the back of the car with as little rain surface area as possible

• Improve HHS-HES irrigation to soil

• Improve vegetation in run off areas by planting millions of trees in HHS-HES areas

• Require negative population growth to reduce increase HHS-HES surfaces

• Adopt Low Impact Development (LID) in city planning and improvements for design

approach aiming to mimic naturalized water balances

• Cool rain water runoff with green electricity prior to dumping it in the ocean

• Severe HHS-RWM changes are required to stop runoff into the ocean worldwide

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Final Thoughts

• Population Reduction is the number one solution to global warming to reduce CO2 emissions

• Focusing only on CO2 reduction at this late stage is not enough

• Solving the CO2 Problem Likely Will not Fix Global Warming

• Need to Improving Albedo of Cities and Roads would greatly reduce Global warming due to hotspots and Hydro-Hotspot effects

• What can you do to help save mankind?

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Presentation References • DfRSoft GW Free Calculator & Slides: https://www.dfrsoft.com/DfR_Articles.html

(scroll to bottom of web page)

• A.Feinberg, Hydro-Hotspots Global Warming,

Cornell on Line: Vixra 1910.0002 (Nov.-Dec 12 2019), Submitted to J. Climate Change

• Fossil Fuel Estimate: Ref: https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels

• Many slides modified from John Ruhl, Case Western Univ. Youtube 2018

presentation

• Temperature Data 1950 (57oF) to Present Day (58.5oF)

• William Happer – Princeton U. CO2 Warming False Claims

• https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/DecadalTemp

• Double CO2 yields DT=2.3oC~4oF

Manabe S.; Wetherald R. T. (May 1967). "Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 24 (3): 241–259.

• Earth albedo 29%, from book, Climate Chane (2nd edition) S. Cohen, G. Stanhill, 2016.

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https://www.dfrsoft.com/DfR_Articles.html




https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/DecadalTemp






https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469(1967)024<0241:TEOTAW>2.0.CO;2

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469(1967)024<0241:TEOTAW>2.0.CO;2

Documents

Global Warming Climate Change Physics - DfR Soft Warming Climate Change Physics.pdf · • Global Warming Due to Hydro-Hotspots (New!!) 73 • Suggestions and Final Thoughts 76-77