Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Global Warming Climate Change
Physics
Alec Feinberg, Ph.D.
DfRSoft
December 11, 2019
This Presentation is Posted
on Youtube
(Slides & Calculator Available at https://www.dfrsoft.com/DfR_Articles.html
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Author
Including:
• Albedo Modeling
• Global Warming Due to
Hydro-Hotspots, New!
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Physics Strategy - What Changed?
• 1950 2019-2020
• Average Temp=57F Average Temp=58.6F
• Earth Albedo 29% Earth Albedo 28.8%
• 57F Greenhouse Effect 58.6F Greenhouse Effect
• Fossil Fuel Heating 1950 Fossil Fuel Heating 2019
• Population 1950 Population 2019
• 1950 440 Million Years Ago
• Avg. Temp 300 PPM CO2 Avg. Temp 2000 PPM CO2
• Earth Albedo 29% Earth Albedo 42%
• 1950 2019
Human Forcing Unrelated to CO2
Hot Spots City Roads Albedo Modeling + Moisture Modeling
Global Warming Due to Hydro-Hotspots New! Alternative Solutions
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PART 2 – The Skeptics “William Happer” on CO2 Right yet Wrong!
PART 1- Basic GW Physics
PART 3: Albedo Modeling of Hot Spots, Moisture Modeling & Hydro-Hotspots
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Index • DfRSoft Physics Model 4
• Summary of Findings 5
• Global Warming Risk Math 7
• Part I Basic Physics of Global Warming 8
• Energy Budget 1950 10
• 1950 With Green House Gasses 16
• Energy Budget 2019 21
• 2019 With Green House Gasses 28
• IR Escape Altitude 31
• Fossile Fuel Contribution To GW 32
• CO2 440 Million Years Ago, Why William Happer is Wrong 39
• Human Forcing & CO2 48
• Part III – Human Forcing Unrelated to CO2 50
• Modeling Albedo of Cities & Roads 51
• What is Surface Area of Cities 62
• Effects of Moisture 67
• Humidity Correlation to Global Warming 71
• Drought & Wet Lands 72
• Global Warming Due to Hydro-Hotspots (New!!) 73
• Suggestions and Final Thoughts 76-77
• References 79
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Subject Slide Number
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Summary of Findings & Tools • GW data is the Bottom Line – predictions of temperature rise, Ocean Rising
Effects, and Ecological hardships are unfortunately difficult to deny that Climate change is rapidly occurring
• Global Warming Conclusions/Solutions – 1. Reduce Earth’s Population (Most Important, negative population growth reduces)
– 2. Reduce Fossil Fuels (Greenhouse gasses)
– 3. Other Important Issues Besides CO2 Required to fix global warming
– 4. Need to Improve to stop Albedo forcing due to City & Roads Albedo
– 5. Albedo forcing created warming, along with Hydro-Hotspot Evaporation in Cities
– 6. Human Forcing of Albedo & Humidity Change (likely create GW (NEW!)
• CO2 Possibly not the Main Reason for Human Forcing – We can explain using Albedo Increase – Moisture Effect –why William Happer,
president Trumps global warming advisor is wrong.
– Yet can’t dismiss the fact that CO2 may not be the problem due to some physics
• DfRSoft Global Warming Excel Calculators (free to download). – Simplified Modeling
– Comparisons at two different times, Albedo Modeling, CO2 Doubling Modeling
– Water Vapor Vs CO2
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Simplified DfRSoft Model
Earth Heating= Ptotal =PNo GH + P GH =sT4
Where
PNo GH =Eo { 0.25 x (1-Albedo) }
P GH = f PNo GH , Due to greenhouse gasses
Ptotal = sT4 Power required to achieve average temperature of Year
Sun Energy Eo=1361 W/m2
Albedo=0.29 (in 1950, see references at end for this number)
Albedo=0.288 (in 2020)
0.25 Typical for fraction of Sun light illuminating Earth
f= Frac. GH Power Emitted Back=Obtained at 57oF for 1950
f= Frac. GH Power Emitted Back= Obtained at 58.6 oF for 2019
Fossil Fuel Burning Energy (usually negligible as found)
HHS=Hydro-Hotspots
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Global Warming Due to
Hydro-Hotspots - Human Forcing of
Humidity Change
• Reference:
• Pre-print: Alec. Feinberg, DfRSoft, Global Warming Due to Albedo & Humidity Hydro-Hotspots Forcing
• Cornell on Line: Vixra 1910.0002 (Nov.-Dec 4 2019)
• Submitted: Journal, Climate Change
– Global Warming Due to Hydro-Hotspots, Dec 5, 2019
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Global Warming (GW) Risk Mathematics
• Risk = Probability of Failure x Severity
• To Quantify
– If you are a 99% GW disbeliever (Prob. of Fail=1%)
– Severity = World Population 7.7 x 109
• GW Risk = 1% x 7.7 Billion People=77 Million
People
• This is the risk if we do nothing
• Conclusion: Better Safe Than Sorry
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Part 1: Basic Physics of Global
Warming
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Modeling Energy Absorbed
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Review Earth Energy Budget and
Temperature in 1950 Before 3rd
Industrial Revolution
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Earth’s Albedo Effect - a measure of how much solar radiation is
reflected from Earth's surface. Earth Average in 1950 was 29%
Earth’s Albedo Effect
Earth’s Reflectivity Albedo 29%
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Energy Budget Calculation 1950
½ of Earth is irradiated, another ½ is lost due to sphere effect
Percent available for absorbed is then ¼
Average Earth Albedo is 0.29 – Reflectivity (see References)
Power Absorbed = 0.71 x 0.25x 1361 W/m2
=241.58 Watts/m2
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Reflectivity 29%
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Convert Energy to Temperature
Black Body Radiation
& DfRSoft Simplified Model
s=5.670367×10−8 W. m−2⋅K−4
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PTotal= Eo {0.25 x 1-Albedo) + fGreenhouse Energy} =sT4
PTotal= Eo {Rfactor} =sT4
Neglecting Fossil Fuels DfRSoft Model:
Rfactor = (0.25 x 1-Albedo) + fGreenhouse Energy
Rfactor no GH= 0.25 x (1-0.29) =0.1775
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Energy Budget Temperature 1950
Without Greenhouse Effect
E=sT4=241.58 W/m2
s=5.670367×10−8 W. m−2⋅K−4
T4=241.58 W/m2/5.67E-8 T=255.5K~0.2oF Cold
E=sT4=241.58 W/m2
T=255.5K~0.2oF Cold
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
DfRSoft Calculator for Earth’s Energy
Budget without Greenhouse Effect • Inputs Green Area, Applicable in Red
Energy Earth Absorbs
Earth’s Temperatures from This Power Absorbed
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Add Greenhouse Gasses
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Sun (Solar) Radiation, IR GH gas Absorption • We note that greenhouse gasses do not absorb sunlight
photons, essentially transparent to light.
• However, when the Earth absorbs sunlight, it re-radiates infrared photons (heat), this heat radiation has different wavelengths then the sunlight. In this area.
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of the spectrum, the
greenhouse gasses can absorb
radiation. GH gasses absorb a
certain wavelength, then re-
emit radiation of the same
wavelength in arbitrary
directions, some back to Earth
and some to outer space.
Earth absorbs sunlight Radiates Infrared
SUN IR
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
1950 Average Temperature was 57oF
with Greenhouse Effect
Here we deduce that the
greenhouse power must be
143.26W/m2 to obtain
an average T=57oF
E=sT4=241.58+143.26 =384.8 W/m2
Where
s=5.670367×10−8 W. m−2⋅K−4
Then T4=384.8 W/m2/5.67E-8 TSurface=287K=57F
E=sT4=241.58+143.26=384.8 W/m2
TSurface=287oK=57oF
241.58W/m2
143.26 W/m2 W Emitted Back
We see that 143.26/241.58=0.593
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IR Escapes 241.58W/m2
255.5oK (about 7375 feet)
H2O CO2
H2O
CO2 CO2
H2O
Sun
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
DfRSoft Calculator Model
Requirements to Obtain 1950
Greenhouse Temperature of 57oF
Required % of Energy Budget Reflected back (143.2) by Greenhouse gasses To obtain average Temperature of 57oF
• Inputs Green Area, Applicable in Red
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
DfRSoft Simplified Model Parameter 1950
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Ptotal =PNo GH + P GH , Total power required to obtain Tavg=57oF
PTotal= Eo { 0.25 x (1-Albedo) [1+ fGreenhouse Energy] } =sT4
PTotal= Eo {0.1775 [1+.0.56}]}=Eo{0.1775+0.1053}=PNo GH + P GH
PTotal = 241.58+142.9=384.83 W/M2 =sT4
Solving -> T=57oF
Eo=1361 W/M2
PNo GH =241 W/M2 ,Power obtain Earth Sun and Albed no GH gasses
P GH =142.9 W/M2, GH Power must be emitted back to obtain Tavg=57oF
PTotal = 384.83 W/M2 =sT4 Total power required to obtain Tavg=57oF
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Review Earth Energy Budget and
Temperature in 2019
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Review Earth Energy Budget and
Temperature in 2020 Since industrial
revolution
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• Surface thermometers
• Satellite temperatures
• Ice is melting
• Ocean heat is increasing
• Sea Levels are Rising
2019 - How do we Know Temperature Has Increased?
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Global Warming Trend • A 0.89oC Rise
Corresponds to a 1.6oF Rise
• 1950 Average Temp 57oF
• 2019-2020 Average Temp=58.6oF
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Energy Budget Calculation 2019
Here we make add a slight change by decreasing the
Average Earth Albedo to 0.288 – Bit less Reflectivity
to study the effect. There is reason to believe it is less in 2019
compared to 1950 due to ice melting, Cities, Asphalt roads, pollution.
Power Absorbed = 0.712 x 0.25 x 1361 W/m2
=242.26 Watts/m2
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Reflectivity 28.8%
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Energy Budget Temperature 2019
Without Greenhouse Effect
E=sT4=242.26 W/m2
s=5.670367×10−8 W. m−2⋅K−4
T4=242.26 W/m2/5.67E-8 T=255.66K~0.52oF 0.32oF Warmer than 1950
E=sT4=242.26 W/m2
T=255.66K~0.52/oF This is 0.32oF Warmer than 1950 due to very small decrease in Albedo
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Earth Albedo In Decline • When cities replace natural vegetation, the area usually becomes
much hotter. Climatologists call this effect an urban heat island. Other Major factors most obvious is pollution and Asphalt (Albedo=.04) roads, parking lots, buildings etc.
• Cities of > million people can be 1-3oC (1.8-5.4oF) warmer
• With the exception of Antarctic sea-ice, recently increasing by 1% a year, nearly all the ice (Albedo=0.6) on the planet is melting. As the white snow (Albedo=0.85) surfaces decrease in area, less energy is reflected into space, and the Earth will warm up even more.
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
DfRSoft Calculator for Earth’s Energy Budget without Greenhouse Effect
2020 with Small Decrease to Albedo
Energy Earth Absorbs 2020
Earth’s Temperatures is 0.52F from 28.8 Albedo. Compared to 29% Albedo of 0.2F. It is 0.32F higher due to only 0.2% decline
Small Change to Earth Albedo from 0.29 to 0.288
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
DfRSoft Model Requirements to Obtain
2020 Greenhouse Temperature of 58.6oF
Required % of Energy Budget emitted back (147.37) by Greenhouse gasses To obtain average Temperature of 58.6oF
• Inputs Green Area, Applicable in Red
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
2019 Average Temperature is 58.6oF
with Greenhouse Effect
Here we deduce that the
greenhouse power must be
147.05 W/m2 to obtain
an average T=58.6oF
E=sT4=242.3+147.37
=389.7 W/m2
Where
s=5.670367×10−8 W. m−2⋅K−4
Then
T4=389.7 W/m2/5.67E-8
TSurface=287.9K=58.6F
We see that 147.4/242.3=0.608
See Model
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E=sT4=242.3+147.37=389. W/m2
TSurface=287.9oK=58.6oF
242.3W/m2
147.37 W/m2 W
Emitted Back
IR Escapes 242.3W/m2
255.7oK (about 7375 feet)
H2O CO2
H2O
CO2 CO2
H2O
Sun
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
What Was The Climate Change 1950-2019? • Temperature Increase 1.6oF
• Increase in Emitted Power Back to Earth
– 4.1W/M2 (=147.4-143.3)
• CO2 Levels 1950, 313PPM
• CO2 Levels in 2019, 410 PPM
• Moisture Levels in air
also increased due to evaporation
• Earth Albedo Changed + CO2
+ moisture, (more greenhouse gasses
of CO2 and H2O yield the higher emitted
back radiation)
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Altitude Vs. Temperature • As you add greenhouse gasses you change the the IR
escape height
• Neglecting 2019 albedo change
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Specific Humidity
C02 (300PPM) Other (1.4%)
Specific Humidity +
C02 (400PPM)
Other (1.4%+)
2019 1950
242 W/M2~255K~~0.2C 242 W/M2~255K~0.2C
IR Escape Altitude >7375 Feet IR Escape Altitude >7375 Feet+
CO2 human emissions (HE-factories & Cars) and absorption (HA -deforestation)
and natural emissions (NE-volcano) and absorption (NA-trees) separately.
DCO2=NE + HE – NA - HA
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Summary 1950 to 2019 Greenhouse Effect
• A small decrease in Earth Albedo from 0.29 to 0.288 created a change of 0.32oF (=0.52-0.2) increase
• An addition Greenhouse change of reflected power back to Earth created a change of 1.08oF
• DTemp. Increase= DAlbedo Decline + Dgreenhouse CO2 +H2O= 0.32oF+0.42oF+0.86oF=1.6oF
• The Additional Greenhouse power reflected to create the 1.6oF Change was only 4.1W/M2 (=147.4-143.3) in 2019 compared with 1950.
• This is the reason scientist feel CO2 is the key issue since one must ask, “What Else Has Changed?”
• Hydro-Hotspots discussion at end
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Could this change be simply from the
effect of fossil fuel heat increase into
the Earths Atmosphere?
What about its byproduct CO2
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Estimated Fossil Fuel Burned in 2017
• This is the estimated amount used in a year
of the three Fossil Fuels
To convert to Watts/M2 we must divide by hours in a year 8760 and Earth’s surface area to average it out. (We can include some efficiency not all converted to heat).
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
DfRSoft Model of IR Emissions Due to
Fossil Fuel • We provide some rough estimate of the percent of Fuel turned into
heat and use 40% of heat escaping from prior model
• Result appear to be a negligible amount of contribution to global warming in 2017 of 0.0125 W/m2 compared to 348 W/m2 this is negligible. We take it to be 0.1 W/m2 estimated from 2020 due to energy increases and other possible energy sources such as nuclear. 35
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Amount Fossil fuel Used Per Year
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https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Estimate in Joules of Fossil Fuel Use
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Energy Production in Watts
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
What Does this Say About CO2
• Fossil fuels influence on Global Warming is Miniscule in terms of Global Warming energy
• Yet the byproduct of this miniscule energy, CO2, is suppose to be responsible for a Major global energy change
• Not being an expert in this area, this fact does seem to require some explanation
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft 40
Part 2:
High CO2 Levels 440 Million Years
Ago During Cold Glaciations
Explained
i.e. Why Didn’t the Earth Get Hot??
Why William Happer is Likely Wrong
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
CO2 Effect 440 Million Years Ago
Explained
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• Ancient ice-cap formations & ice-ages called
"glaciations." occurred 440 million years ago
• Captured the attention of climate skeptics.
• The main reason CO2 levels were high but
temperatures on Earth were Cold – with
Glaciation (snow & Ice)?
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
CO2 Effect 440 Million Years Ago
Explained
• Many skeptics
• Especially William Happer (former Prof.
Princeton U.) President Trumps hired
Environmental man to disprove Human forced
climate change
• How do we analyze his view this using GW
Physics?
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
CO2 Effect 440 Million Years Ago
Explained
• Take CO2 Levels 2000 PPM, 440 Million
Years Ago
• Global average temperature 57oF in 1950, with
CO2 is 300 PPM Level
• Use Manabe S.; Wetherald R. T. (May 1967).
Estimate that we get a 2.3oC Rise Every
doubling of CO2
• Another Model Gillbert Plass 1950’s 3.6oC
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Temperature Rise 440 Million Years
Ago Due to 2000 PPM CO2
• We seen going from 300 to 2000 PPM would
create a 8.5oC (15.5oF) temperature rise using
the doubling model of 3oC
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Albedo Model 1950 to 440 Mil Yrs Ago
• Consider just an Albedo Change, The DfRSoft weighted Albedo Model below for 1950 yields 29%
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1950
1950 Albedo 29%
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Albedo Model 1950 to 440 Mil Yrs Ago • 440 Mil Yrs ago, may have had a higher average water reflectivity due to more
Ice in the Open Ocean we see that a change from 0.06 to 0.6 yeilds and Albedo of 42% Globally. Another possible reason is clouds due to colder planet weather less latent heat of evaporation
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400 Mil Yrs Ago
440 MY Albedo 42%
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Albedo Effect from Glaciation Period
set at 42% in Model
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• Earths temperature with 42% Albedo is
35.8oF +14.8oF=50.6oF • We see Albedo is only one possible explanation, less moisture is
another, we do not know the climate 440 Mil Yrs ago. The evidence
for CO2 of 2000PPM may be Ok because it is trapped in glacier as
evidence, but how about less moisture and clouds in the sky which
would be less greenhouse moisture gas.
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Conclusion
• Even though CO2 Levels 440 Million Years Ago may have been 2000 PPM yielding an estimated 15.5oF increase this could have been offset by an increase in Albedo from 30% to 42%.
• Albedo increase is highly likely due to Glaciation period
• As well less moisture may have occurred in the atmosphere yielding less greenhouse gas of moisture
• William Happer, GW advising to President Trump is proving incorrect information to the public, not taking into account Albedo & Moisture Climate Offset effect.
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Global Warming Human C02 Forcing
• Human use of fossil fuel creating global warming
means simply
• Warming=Number of People x Warming
Energy/Person
• Called CO2 emissions per Capita
• Climatologist deduce it is due to CO2 when we
ask, What has changed?
• How about Hydro-Hotspots
49
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Population Growth & CO2 Emissions
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
What About CO2 Levels Compared to H2O vapor
• CO2 Levels since 1950 have increased from 300 to 400 PPM (Change of 100 PPM
• Water vapor is around 25,000 PPM and because of our climate, its change is hard to measure
• Climatologist surmise the only CO2 changed and water vapor increase is only due to CO2 warming causeing ocean evaporation effects
• Yet we know other changes must occur, namely Albedo forcing in cities and roads, creating evaporation forcing – perhaps between albedo change and Hydro-hotspots, this is the reason.
51
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
• Outline:
– Modeling Albedo of Cities & Roads
• global warming maybe more due to Cities and Roads
than CO2
– Humidity Modeling – Strong correlation to global
warming – Drought Aspects
– Hydro-Hotspots – Evaporation from hot surfaces
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Part III
Human Forcing Unrelated to CO2
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Modeling Albedo of Cities & Roads
Is Global warming more due to Cities and
Roads than CO2?
53
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Human Forcing Due to
Hotspots & Hydro-Hotspots
Albedo Modeling
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Climatologist Are Really Not Bringing
Hotspot Issues Forward
• Here we disagree for two reasons
– Modeling shows that hotspots radiation can create
significant temperature change
• Albedo Effects Both Heat and Specific
Humidity Reasons
– Albedo heating from roads & cities
– Moisture evaporation creating more water vapor
greenhouse gasses responsible for re-radiating heat
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Warm Mixed Asphalt (WMA) Yearly
Increase – Painting Land Black!
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Increase Use of Materials for
Buildings & Roads
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2006
Ref: USGS, Materials in Use in U.S. Interstate Highways, https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2006/3127/2006-3127.pdf
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Heat-Albedo Decrease
• First lets assess increase in global warming
due just to heat increase of albedo decrease
• What if
– We change roads and cities to be more reflective
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
DfRSoft Global Weighted Model 1950 Albedo 29%
59
Using this model we obtain 29%
This was used in our Global Warming Model
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1950 Albedo 29%
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
DfRSoft Global Albedo Modeling?
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(% )i ii
Earth Weighted Albedo
Earth Area x Surface Item Albedo
=
{( % ) ( )}
GlobalWeighted Albedo
Average Clouds Albedo x Coverage Earth Weighted Albedo
=
• Very Simplified Albedo Model
–
–
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Thermal Images of Urban Hotspots
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Albedo White Paint=0.8 (looks like ~93F) Albedo of Asphalt =.04 (looks like ~103F)
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
DfRSoft Global Weighted Model 2019 Albedo 28.8%?
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This was arbitrary number we simply said
Likely decline in albedo
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2019 Albedo 28.8%
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Albedo Change of 0.2%
• Albedo Decrease 29 to 28.8% Albedo creats a 0.32oF temperature rise
• This was without greenhouse gasses 0.32oF out of 1.6oF is already responsible for 20%
• This will correspond to more moisture in the air absorbing more heat
• We are only talking about 4 W/M2 of global increase
• What percent is due to added moisture??
63
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
What is the Surface Area of Cities?
64
• This is very hard to estimate.
• Let’s assume each building sides equate to 10x the bottom
surface area due to having 4 sides and their height. Assume
now that buildings take up 45% of a cities area.
• Now it is estimated that 1.2% of the Earth surface are cities.
• Then we have 1.2%x55%+1.2%x45%x10=6% of the Earth’s
surface worldwide,
• Cities increase the solar surface area of the Earth as we mine
materials and reshape the surface of the Earth.
–
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
City Surface Area (Cont.)
• Assume surface of city is 50% exposed to sunlight
• Then
• 6% x 50%=3%
• Now the surface of the Earth is larger (101.8%) went
from 1.2%* to 3% increase in cities surfaces.
• We need to renormalize
• So 3%x100%/101.8%=2.95% for example, all
surface require renormalized.
65
*1950 value, cities 0.48% yields (0.48%*0.55+.48%*0.45*10)x50%=1.2%
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
DfRSoft Global Weighted Model 2019 Albedo 28.69%?
66
Here we changed Urban Cov to 3.4, this gave us
Area of Earth 102.2% so then we renormalized
The new surface areas to this value. Urban Cov. 3.33%
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New 2019 Albedo Estimate 28.69%
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
What if We Now Improved Albedo Cities
& Roads to 0.5 in 2019
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Here we changed new surface area of Earth
Cities & Roads more reflective to 0.5
67
New 2019 Albedo Estimate
29.43%
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Summary of Just Albedo Changes
to Cities & Roads From 1950
68
• We see two key observations: 1. Actual shift from 1950 may be 0.5oF (0.7-0.2) due to Cities
& Road increases which is 33% responsible for global warming
Agreement with other authors (see my Vixra paper)
2. If we change reflectivity to 0.5 of cities and roads, total budget shift is 1.3oF {0.7-(-0.5)}almost solves global warming problem
3. Due to improvements of specific humidity (see next section), it should actually solve the problem entirely
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Effect of Moisture
• How moisture effects global warming
• Dry Vs. Wet Lands and Drought
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Human Forcing of Moisture May be
Worse Climate Issue
• Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas
• Human forcing of water vapor influence on atmospheric
concentrations due to deforestation, building of cities, creating
hotspot evaporation.
• The surface warming leads to an increase in atmospheric water
vapor because warmer temperatures. This creates a “feedback
loop” in which warming leads to more warming with ocean
effects for example.
70
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Humidity Data to GW Trends
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Specific humidity and global warming trends from two different agencies
Ref: Andy May, Does Global Wrming increase total atmospheric water vapor
(TPW)? June 2018, https://andymaypetrophysicist.com/2018/06/09/does-global-
warming-increase-total-atmospheric-water-vapor-tpw/
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Moisture is Tied to Global Warming
Likely is The Biggest Problem? • Specific humidity is
increasing yet RH is not, warmer temperatures expands air holds more moisture
• Ref: M. P. Byrne and P. A. O’Gorman, Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming, Proc. Of the National Academy of Sciences, April 23, 2018. https://www.pnas.org/content/115/19/4863
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Humidity Correlation to Global Warming
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Byrne et. al paper - Relationships one Can deduce from their paper
General Relationships that I played around with deduces from Byrne paper
GWL=Temp Glob. Warm. Over land, hL=specific humidity, rL=relative humidity
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Decrease in Wet Lands Correlations to
Dry Days - Study Southwestern Europe
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Ref: M. Hirshi, S.I. Seneviratne, V Alexandrov, F. Boberg, C. Boroneant, O.B. Christensen, H. Formayer, B. Orlowsky
& P. Stepanek, Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe, Nature
Geoscience 4, 17-21 (2011).
Bottom Line:
When cities replace wet lands
And drain rain water runoff far
away to Ocean, it can create more
dry days & possibly drought.
For more reference on this see my
Paper, Vixra 1910.0002
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Global Warming Due to Hydro-
HotSpots (HHS)
• Hotspots combined with rain create
evaporation GH moisture gas
• This is HHS
• Look at Highly Evaporating Surfaces
• Rain Water Management
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Feedback HHS Highly Evaporation Surface (HES) Global Warming
Low Albedo City & Road IR Heating Increase, Global Warming Increase
Precipitation
Sun
HHS-Highly Evaporating Surfaces Emission of Water Vapor GH Gas
Ocean Warming
Specific Humidity
Global Warming
Water Vapor &
CO2
Loss Water Storage in Soil, Dryness, Prone to Drought
High Kinetic Energy, %RH Decrease, Specific Hum. Increase
Global Warming
Albedo Forcing, HHS
Humidity Forcing
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Feedback Rain Water Management (RWM) Global Warming
Precipitation
Low Albedo City and Urban, Car surfaces, HHS-RWM Drainage
Global Warming
More Water Vapor
Ocean Warming
Specific Humidity Rise
Global Warming
Water Vapor &
CO2 Loss Water Storage in Soil, Land
Dryness, Prone to Drought
Warmer Local Runoff Water Increase Water Surface Evaporation
& Humidity, Decrease %RH
Warmer % to Local Streams, Ocean
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
HHS Evaporation Area Effect
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A simplified expression for the equivalent HHS-HES area (see Reference)
Where
AEfHES=Effective HHS-HES area,
ASoil=soil area, this is set equal to an equivalent to AHES area, subtracte from
AHES-%IG any % run off of irrigated water falling on the roads or city surface areas to
vegetation areas
tSoil is the evaporation time of the soil
tHES is the evaporation time of the asphalt or city surface after precipitation occurs.
Example: if it takes a road 2 hours to evaporate a volume of water from a road,
while it take soil 48 hours to evaporate the same amount of water in soil, than the
effective soil land lost is a factor of 24 times contributing to the evaporation rate and
specific humidity. This example is for roads with zero percent irrigation-equivalent
area running off water to adjacent land.
Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Hydro-Hotspot Suggestions • Further studies are needed to understand the effect of HHS to GW
• Change Albedo of roads and cities will reducing HHS and the area effect dramatically,
i.e. paint roads and building with reflective colors (minimally higher than albedo of
0.25)
• Engineering roads to be more HHS eco-friendly
• Reduce driving speeds during rain to reduce evaporation rates can also reduce KE
molecules
• Change to electric cars with HHS - cooler hoods
• Paint all cars metallic or white (high reflective colors)
• Move car engines to the back of the car with as little rain surface area as possible
• Improve HHS-HES irrigation to soil
• Improve vegetation in run off areas by planting millions of trees in HHS-HES areas
• Require negative population growth to reduce increase HHS-HES surfaces
• Adopt Low Impact Development (LID) in city planning and improvements for design
approach aiming to mimic naturalized water balances
• Cool rain water runoff with green electricity prior to dumping it in the ocean
• Severe HHS-RWM changes are required to stop runoff into the ocean worldwide
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Final Thoughts
• Population Reduction is the number one solution to global warming to reduce CO2 emissions
• Focusing only on CO2 reduction at this late stage is not enough
• Solving the CO2 Problem Likely Will not Fix Global Warming
• Need to Improving Albedo of Cities and Roads would greatly reduce Global warming due to hotspots and Hydro-Hotspot effects
• What can you do to help save mankind?
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Dr. Alec Feinberg, DfRSoft
Presentation References • DfRSoft GW Free Calculator & Slides: https://www.dfrsoft.com/DfR_Articles.html
(scroll to bottom of web page)
• A.Feinberg, Hydro-Hotspots Global Warming,
Cornell on Line: Vixra 1910.0002 (Nov.-Dec 12 2019), Submitted to J. Climate Change
• Fossil Fuel Estimate: Ref: https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels
• Many slides modified from John Ruhl, Case Western Univ. Youtube 2018
presentation
• Temperature Data 1950 (57oF) to Present Day (58.5oF)
• William Happer – Princeton U. CO2 Warming False Claims
• https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/DecadalTemp
• Double CO2 yields DT=2.3oC~4oF
Manabe S.; Wetherald R. T. (May 1967). "Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 24 (3): 241–259.
• Earth albedo 29%, from book, Climate Chane (2nd edition) S. Cohen, G. Stanhill, 2016.
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