Global Warming& Global Climate Change (GCC)

Forest Service Video

Some questions…

Are global temperatures rising? If not…no worries, but there’s lots of

explaining to do if yes…

Some questions…

Are global temperatures rising?Why are temperatures rising?

Natural and/or Anthropogenic?What difference does it make?

Some questions…

Are global temperatures rising?Why are temperatures rising?What are the effects?

Due to increasing gasses? Due to increasing temperature?

Some questions…

Are global temperatures rising?Why are temperatures rising?What are effects?What should we do?

Nothing “Adapt” “Fix”

Reduce emissionsTake greenhouse gasses out of atmosphere

Are global temperatures rising?

Trends in global temperaturesPast, present, future

Other evidence of global temp risePhysical, biological

Temperatures have gone up and down over the last 500 million years

http://www.globalwarmingart.com

But this is the warmest they’ve been in the last 1000 years

http://www.globalwarmingart.com

2007

Temperatures are still increasing

http://www.globalwarmingart.com

2007: 0.7

Temperatures are likely to increase in the future

http://www.eo.ucar.edu/basics/cc_2.html

Other evidence of global temp rise

Physical Ocean temperature increase Sea level rise Increase in higher intensity hurricanes Snow/ice/frozen ground decrease

Biological Natural events happening earlier

Flowering, nesting, migration Pole-ward spread of tropical diseases Loss of biodiversity

Ocean temps have increased

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2007/maraprsst.gif

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Recent_Sea_Level_Rise_png

Hurricane intensity has increased

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/images/NA-AI172_STORMS_20060316193751.gif

Snow and ice is melting

http://www.koshland-science-museum.org/exhibitgcc/intro01.jsp

1928 1979 2003South Cascade Glacier, WA

http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/index.html

Biological Evidence Spring events happening earlier

Earlier greening up (~9 days earlier than 1982) Earlier migration, nesting, flowering

Species ranges changing Pika up/off mountains Mosquitos spreading poleward/upward

Extinctions Golden Toad

Why are temperatures rising?

Two possibilities:Natural

increasing energy inputincreasing greenhouse gasses

AnthropogenicIncreasing greenhouse gasses

Natural causes of global temp rise

Change in Sun’s output Change in Earth’s orbit Change in Volcanism

Not supported by data (less than 5% chance according to IPCC).

Anthropogenic causes of global temperature rise

Greater Green House Gas emissions Fossil fuel and biomass burning Agriculture (rice paddies, cattle, fertilizers, etc.)

Carbon sinks have decreased Deforestation

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/

Trends in greenhouse gases

The cause of methane leveling off is likely related to several factors, including changes in emissions related to changes in the former Soviet Union and the short lifetime of methane (8-9 years)

Correlation between CO2 and Temp

http://www.globalwarmingart.com

Deforestation

Deforestation removes the carbon-absorbing trees, releases the carbon when the trees are burned, and then allows erosion of the soil so that forests may not return.

What are effects of global warming?

Human healthHeat-related illnessesSpread of tropical diseases

Other direct effects on humansSea level rise, agriculture, wildfires,

hurricanes, drought, floods, water scarcity Environmental

Loss of biodiversity, desertification

http://www.ipcc.ch/table_1_for_SPM.jpg

Human health effects

Model of health effects

http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/en/

List of health effects

Food and water borne diseases Vector borne diseases Natural disasters (storms, floods, heat waves) Malnutrition Changes in air pollution and aeroallergen

levels Altered transmission of other infectious

diseases More…

http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/summary/en/index6.html

List of health effects (cont)

Effects on food production via climatic influences on plant pests and diseases

Drought and famine Population displacement due to natural

disasters, crop failure, water shortages, sea level rise

Destruction of health infrastructure in natural disasters

Conflict over natural resources Direct impacts of heat and cold (morbidity).

http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/summary/en/index6.html

“It estimated that climate change contributes to 150,000 deaths and 5 million illnesses each year.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/16/AR2005111602197.html

Other direct effects on humans

Sea level rise Storm intensity increase Agricultural changes

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Recent_Sea_Level_Rise_png

http://www.globalwarmingart.com

http://www.globalwarmingart.com

Increase in storm intensity

http://www.globalwarmingart.com

Loss of biodiversity

The golden toad of Costa Rica is now believed to be extinct. Likely one of the first creatures whose extinction can be definitively blamed on global warming.

http://www.globalwarmingart.com

Effects on biodiversity

Credit: D. Niven et al./Audubon Society

Change in thermohaline circulation will alter climate

Negative Feedback Loops

Increasing CO2 will increase oceanic algae which will increase absorption of CO2 out of atmosphere, thus decreasing CO2.

Increase in CO2 will stimulate plant growth thus absorption of CO2 out of the atmosphere, thus decreasing CO2.

Negative Feedback Loops

Increased warming will increase precipitation in polar regions, will increase snow pack, thus reflectance of solar energy back to space, thus less warming.

Increase warming will result in more evaporation, more clouds, more reflectance, less warming.

Positive Feedback Loops

Increase warming will result in more evaporation, more water vapor in air and greater greenhouse effect from water vapor, thus more heating.

Increase warming will melt permafrost, releasing methane, thus increase warming.

Positive Feedback Loops

Increase warming will decrease snowpack and ice decreases reflectance, so increase warming.

Warmer temperatures cause greater use of air conditioners thus increasing fossil fuel burning and greenhouse gas emissions, thus warmer temperatures

What should we do

Nothing: we’re not sure enough“Adapt”: let’s plan for the changes“Fix”: let’s do something about it

Reduce emissionsTake greenhouse gasses out of atmosphere

We should do nothing

We are not certain it is happening or it is us. It will be too expensive

We should “adapt”

Move back from coasts, or build structures that can hold back water or allow city to rise.

Vaccinate for new diseases Alter the way we store water Alter agricultural practices Etc.

We should “fix” the problem by reducing emissions

Energy Supply: improve efficiency; switch to nuclear and/or renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower, etc.); combined heat and power; early applications of CO2 capture and storage

Transport: More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; alternative energy vehicles; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning

Buildings: Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and air conditioning; improved insulation; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances

We should “fix” the problem more directly

Carbon (and other gas) sequestration Increase Earth’s albedo Earth shading

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Carbon SequestrationSchematic diagram of possible CCS systems

SRCCS Figure TS-1

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Space mirrors Sulfur particles Clouds Reflective plastic Add Iron to ocean

for more algae growth

Even if we reduce emissions, there will be a time lag so we likely will have to adapt

What can I do?

Easy (learn, inform, vote, be more efficient, etc.) Moderate difficulty (switch energy, autos,

appliances, become more politically active, etc.) Difficult (become a scientist, technologist,

politician, etc. to directly help solve the problem)

Relevant websites

Read the reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch/)

NOAA’s FAQs on global warming (http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html)

Things you can do– (http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/environment/)– http://www.stopglobalwarming.org/sgw_actionitems.asp– http://epa.gov/climatechange/kids/difference.html– http://www.sierraclub.org/globalwarming/tenthings/– http://www.eartheasy.com/article_global_warming.htm– http://www.climatecrisis.net/takeaction/whatyoucando/

Self-quiz questions

What is global warming? What are the major greenhouse gasses and

their sources? What is the most likely cause of global

warming? What are some negative and positive

feedback loops operating in global warming? What are the effects of global warming? What is being done about global warming?

REVIEW

Global warming is an upward trend in global temperatures largely due to human activities.

Major greenhouse gasses are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Know their sources.

Know effects of global warming. Know what is being done: Kyoto Protocol etc.

There is a lot to learn, and do

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vdYa6G1Mr0 time capsule

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snPdEl0Duoo blue man group

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ grid Whole thing here:

http://www.wonderingmind42.com/

Global

Climate

Change

Take

Action:

Yes

Take

Action:

No

GCC False

•Cost•Global economic depression

GCC True

Cost Catastrophes:•Economic•Political•Social•Environmental•Health

Energy sector: currently possible Improved supply and distribution

efficiency Fuel switching from coal to gas Nuclear power Renewable heat and power (hydropower,

solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy) Combined heat and power Early applications of Carbon Capture and

Storage (CCS, e.g. storage of removed CO2 from natural gas)

Energy sector: by 2030 CCS for gas, biomass and coal-fired

electricity generating facilities Advanced nuclear power Advanced renewable energy, including

tidal and waves energy, concentrating solar, and solar PV.

Transport sector: currently possible More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles Cleaner diesel vehicles Modal shifts from road transport to rail and

public transport systems Non-motorized transport (cycling, walking) Land-use and transport planning

Transport sector: by 2030 Higher efficiency aircraft Advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with

more powerful and reliable batteries.

Building sector: currently possible Efficient lighting and daylighting More efficient electrical appliances and

heating and cooling devices Improved cook stoves, improved insulation Passive and active solar design for heating

and cooling Alternative refrigeration fluids, recovery

and recycle of fluorinated gases

Building sector: by 2030 Integrated design of commercial buildings

including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control

Solar PV integrated in buildings

Industry sector: currently possible More efficient end-use electrical

equipment Heat and power recovery Material recycling and substitution Control of non-CO2 gas emissions A wide array of process-specific

technologies

Industry sector: by 2030 Advanced energy efficiency CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron

manufacture Inert electrodes for aluminum manufacture

Agriculture sector: currently possible Improved crop and grazing land management to

increase soil carbon storage Restoration of cultivated peaty soils and

degraded lands Improved rice cultivation techniques and livestock

and manure management to reduce CH4 emissions

Improved nitrogen fertilizer application techniques to reduce N2O emissions

Dedicated energy crops to replace fossil fuel use Improved energy efficiency.

Agriculture sector: by 2030 Improvements of crops yields

Forestry sector: currently possible Afforestation: planting trees where none

occurred before Reforestation Forest management Reduced deforestation Harvested wood product management Use of forestry products for bioenergy to

replace fossil fuel use

Forestry sector: by 2030 Tree species improvement to increase

biomass productivity and carbon sequestration.

Improved remote sensing technologies for analysis of vegetation/ soil carbon sequestration potential and mapping land use change

Waste mgmt sector: currently possible Landfill methane recovery Waste incineration with energy recovery Composting of organic waste Controlled waste water treatment Recycling and waste minimization

Waste mgmt sector: by 2030 Biocovers and biofilters to optimize CH4

oxidation

Earth’s energy balance

Solar energy coming into the Earth Solar energy leaving the Earth

Directly radiated (~17%) Depends on albedo (reflectance)

Absorbed and then re-radiated as heat

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Greenhouse_Effect_png

Snow and ice reflects sun’s energy (Earth’s albedo)

Jan 2004

July 2004

http://www.globalwarmingart.com

Ice sheets are melting

http://cires.colorado.edu/steffen/

Sea ice is melting

http://www.nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html

Current sea ice conditions: September 25,

2007Figure 1 provides an

updated map of sea ice extent for September 25, 2007; the magenta line

shows the median September monthly extent

based on data from 1979 to 2000.

http://environment.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/cms/dn11650/dn11650-3_738.jpg

Earth’s orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles) that drive the ice age cycles.‘T’ = changes in Earth’s tilt (obliquity)‘E’ = changes in eccentricity of the orbit (due to variations in the minor axis of the ellipse)‘P’ = precession: changes in the direction of the axis tilt at a given point of the orbit. Source: Rahmstorf and Schellnhuber (2006).

Milankovitch Cycles

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Greenhouse_Effect_png

The question of the century:Why the global temperature rise?

http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics.htm

Carbon Sequestration