globalizacia,globalizacia, ekonomikuri Teoriaekonomikuri Teoria …dspace.nplg.gov.ge/bitstream/1234/15712/1/... · 2020. 7. 4. · zazzaazacia cciiaacia 1, Tavisi pozitiuri da negatiuri

rozeta asaTirozeta asaTirozeta asaTirozeta asaTiaaaanininini

globalizacia,globalizacia,globalizacia,globalizacia,

ekonomikuri Teoriaekonomikuri Teoriaekonomikuri Teoriaekonomikuri Teoria

dadadada

saqarTvelosaqarTvelosaqarTvelosaqarTvelo

gamomcemloba `siaxle~gamomcemloba `siaxle~gamomcemloba `siaxle~gamomcemloba `siaxle~

Tbilisi 2010Tbilisi 2010Tbilisi 2010Tbilisi 2010

2

316.32+33.01[(479.22)316.32+33.01[(479.22)316.32+33.01[(479.22)316.32+33.01[(479.22)

a_871a_871a_871a_871

rrrrozeta asaTiani. ozeta asaTiani. ozeta asaTiani. ozeta asaTiani. globalizacia, ekonomikuri Teoria

da saqarTvelo. Tb., gamomcemloba `siaxle~, 2010 _ 84 gv.

naSromSi ganxilulia ekonomikuri Teoriis roli glo-

balizaciis genezissa da, zogadad, qveynis ekonomikur politi-

kaSi; gaanalizebulia sabazro ekonomikaze gardamaval periodSi saqarTvelos makroekonomikur regulirebaSi daSvebuli arsebi-

Ti xasiaTis Secdomebi, ekonomikur politikaSi msoflioSi ap-

robirebuli Teoriebis gauTvaliswineblobisa da qveynis Tavi-seburebebis araadekvaturi modelebis gamoyenebis gamo. movle-

naTa kritikuli Sefasebis safuZvelze gakeTebulia saTanado

daskvnebi da gamoTqmulia mosazrebebi zogierTi problemis gadaWris mizniT.

naSromi gankuTvnilia ara mxolod mecnier-ekonomiste-

bisa da ekonomikuri specialobebis studentebisaTvis, aramed Sesabamisi dargis saxelmwifo moxeleebisTvisac. vfiqrobT,

igi saintereso iqneba qveynis bediT dainteresebul mkiTxve-

lTa farTo wrisTvisac.

mecnier-redaqtori

iakob mesxia _ iakob mesxia _ iakob mesxia _ iakob mesxia _ ekonomikur mec-nierebaTa doqtori, profesori.

recenzentebi

vladimer papavavladimer papavavladimer papavavladimer papava _ saqarTvelos

mecnierebaTa erovnuli akademiis wevr-korespondenti;

nodar WiTanavanodar WiTanavanodar WiTanavanodar WiTanava _ ekonomikur me-

cnierebaTa doqtori, profesori.

ISBN 978-99940-875-9-4 © gamomcemloba `siaxle~, 2010.

3

redaqtorisaganredaqtorisaganredaqtorisaganredaqtorisagan

dRes saqarTveloSi TiTqmis yvela ekonomistobs. ara-

profesionalebi nebismier ekonomikur kiTxvas upasuxeben, ara imitom, rom ekonomika ician, aramed imitom, rom maT ekiT-

xebian, xolo profesionalebs ar ekiTxebian. ar ekiTxebian

imitom, rom maT ekonomika kargad ician da maTi pasuxi ara-sasurvelia dRevandeli “piar-ekonomikis” SemqmnelTaTvis.

winamdebare naSromi swored profesionali, didi mecnier-

uli gamocdilebis mqone swavluli ekonomistis mier aris dawerili. gansxvavebiT dRevandeli zogierTi pretenziuli

publikaciisagan, romlebic ZiriTadad internet-resursebidan

saswavlo-mimoxilviTi zogadi debulebebis meqanikuli kompila-ciiTa Sedgenili, profesor r. asaTianis naSromi aris xangrZ-

livi mecnieruli kvlevis analizisa da ganzogadebis saukeTeso

nimuSi. Tanamedrove globalizaciam wina planze wamoswia prag-

matizmi, nebismier fasad mogebis miReba da TiTqmis ar dat-

ova adgili ekonomikuri integraciis saboloo Sedegebis Te-oriuli gaazrebisa da prognozirebisaTvis. samyaro mokle-

vadiani interesebiT cxovrobs, ukana planze gadaiwia grZel-

vadianma prioritetebma da swored amiTacaa ganpirobebuli ekonomikuri ciklebisa da krizisebis xdomilobebs Soris

droiTi intervalis TandaTanobiTi Semcireba.

naSromis Sesaxeb pozitiur warmodgenas iZleva sakvle-vi problemis aqtualuroba, misi kargad gaazrebuli struq-

tura, Rrma Sinaarsi, akademiuri ena da, rac, Cveni azriT,

Zalian mniSvnelovania, sakvlevi sakiTxebis erTmaneTTan mWi-dro logikur kavSirSi gadmocema.

naSromSi siRrmisuladaa Seswavlili globalizaciis

genezisi da Tanamedrove anatomia, misi winaaRmdegobrivi xa-siaTi. avtori originalurad ayalibebs msoflio ekonomiku-

4

ri wesrigis transformaciisa da samoqalaqo sazogadoebis

mSeneblobis saintereso paradigmebs.

avtoris sasaxelod unda aRiniSnos, rom man makroekono-mikuri stabilizaciis Teoriebi da modelebi miusadaga saqa-

rTvelos ekonomikis Tanamedrove transformaciul procesebs

da SemogvTavaza sayuradRebo Teoriuli da gamoyenebiTi xasia-Tis rekonemdaciebi. globalizaciis procesSi saqarTvelos ada-

ptirebasTan dakavSirebiT, avtori samarTlianad gamoyofs iseT

faqtorebs, rogoricaa transformaciuli procesebis araeTi-kurad warmarTva, ekonomikuri interesebis Seujerebloba,

sazogadoebrivi urTierTobebis daubalansebloba, socialuri

solidarobis miuRwevloba da a.S. avtoriseuli daskvna aseTia: “kvazidemokratia aferxebs ekonomikur ganviTarebas da sabazro

ekonomikaze gadasvlas”. Tanamedrove globalizacia ualterna-

tivoa da mas saqarTvelo gverds ver auvlis, magram, avtoris azriT, saWiroa qveyanam SeinarCunos saxelmwifoebrivi damouki-

debloba sakuTari ekonomikis, kulturis, tradiciebis, isto-

riis ganviTarebis kvalobaze, erovnuli tradiciebis safuZve-lze aaSenos evropuli civilizacia.

avtori ZiriTad yuradRebas amaxvilebs j. keinzis mu-

ltiplikatoris Teoriasa da m. fridmenis monetarul Teo-riaze. gansxvavebiT mravali sxva qveynisagan, saqarTvelom

klasikuri formiT ar gamoiyena ekonomikuri zrdis arc er-

Ti msoflioSi aprobirebuli modeli, raSic unda veZioT qveynis ekonomikuri warumateblobis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani

mizezi – askvnis avtori.

winamdebare naSromi Tanamedrove ekonomikuri Teoriis udavod mniSvnelovani SenaZenia, romlis gacnobac, vfiqrobT,

mkiTxvels axali codniT gaamdidrebs.

iakob mesxiaiakob mesxiaiakob mesxiaiakob mesxia ekonomikur mecnierebaTa doqtori, profesori, ekonomikur mecnierebaTa doqtori, profesori, ekonomikur mecnierebaTa doqtori, profesori, ekonomikur mecnierebaTa doqtori, profesori,

saqarTvelos saxelmwifo premiis laureati,saqarTvelos saxelmwifo premiis laureati,saqarTvelos saxelmwifo premiis laureati,saqarTvelos saxelmwifo premiis laureati, saqarTvelos ekonomikur mecnierebaTa saqarTvelos ekonomikur mecnierebaTa saqarTvelos ekonomikur mecnierebaTa saqarTvelos ekonomikur mecnierebaTa

akademiis viceakademiis viceakademiis viceakademiis vice----prezidentiprezidentiprezidentiprezidenti

5

SesavaliSesavaliSesavaliSesavali

((((ekonomikuri Teoria axali gamowvevebis winaSeekonomikuri Teoria axali gamowvevebis winaSeekonomikuri Teoria axali gamowvevebis winaSeekonomikuri Teoria axali gamowvevebis winaSe))))

msoflioSi ukanaskneli naxevari saukunis manZilze da

gansakuTrebiT bobobobolo pelo pelo pelo peririririododododSi mimSi mimSi mimSi mimdidididinanananare Rrma sisre Rrma sisre Rrma sisre Rrma sistetetetemumumumuri ri ri ri trantrantrantransforsforsforsformamamamaciciciciuuuuli proli proli proli procecececesesesesebibibibi, rac ukavSirdeba, ererererTi mxrivTi mxrivTi mxrivTi mxriv,

evoluciuri ganviTarebis gziT kerZo kapitalistur sakuT-

rebiT urTierTobebze damyarebuli `veluri kapitalizmis~ gardaqmnas sakuTrebis pluralizmze dafuZnebul socialur-

ad orientirebul sabazro ekonomikad da mis niadagze aRmo-

cenebul samoqalaqo sazogadoebis formirebas dRes ganviTa-rebul, magram gasuli saukunis 30-ian wlebSi mZime social-

ur-ekonomikur mdgomareobaSi myof qveynebSi, xolo, memememeoooore re re re

mxrivmxrivmxrivmxriv, XX saukunis 90-iani wlebidan moyolebuli, msofli-os 26 qveynisa da 400 mln mosaxleobis politikur da eko-

nomikur ganviTarebaSi momxdar udides cvlilebebs, axaaxaaxaaxali li li li

gagagagamowmowmowmowvevevevevevevevebis wibis wibis wibis winanananaSe ayeSe ayeSe ayeSe ayenebs ekonebs ekonebs ekonebs ekononononomimimimikur Tekur Tekur Tekur Teooooririririasasasas, rogorc ekonomikuri mecnierebis safuZvelTa safuZvelsa da sawyiss,

wina planze wamoswevs mis mniSvnelobas kacobriobis prog-resSi. amasTan, Tanamedrove msofliosaTvis damaxasiaTebeli

sazogadoebrivi cxovrebis yvela sferos momcveli gloglogloglobabababalililili----

zazazazaciaciaciacia1, Tavisi pozitiuri da negatiuri efeqtebiT, axlebur

1 asaTiani rasaTiani rasaTiani rasaTiani r. . . . globalizacia da saqarTvelos socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis zogierTi aspeqti. èkonomika~, Tsu Sromebi. 2003, #3-4; asaTiani r. asaTiani r. asaTiani r. asaTiani r. saqarTvelos mdgradi ganviTarebis zogierTi as-peqti globalizaciis konteqstSi. `globalizacia da saqarTvelos ekonomikis mdgradi ganviTarebis perspeqtivebi~. I saerTaSoriso konferenciis masalebi. 22-24 oqtomberi, 2008. Tb., `Tbilisis universitetis gamomcemloba~, 2008; Asatiani R. The Phenomenon of Globalization and its Influence on National Economics. “The Caucasus & Globalization”. Vol. 1(3), Sweden, 2007.

6

Teoriul ganzogadebasa da meTodologiur aspeqtSi gaanali-

zebas moiTxovs, rac uTuod ekonomikuri Teoriis, rogorc

ekonomikuri mecnierebis dedaboZis, prerogativaa.2 zemoaR-niSnulTan erTad, dRes, gloglogloglobabababalulululuri firi firi firi finannannannansusususuri kriri kriri kriri krizizizizisis pisis pisis pisis pi----

rorororobebbebbebbebSiSiSiSi3, uaRresad aqtualuri xdeba krizisebis mizezebis,

maTi Semswavleli Teoriebis konceptualuri kvleva, ekono-mikuri skolebis warmomadgenelTa Sexedulebebis amJamad

msoflioSi mimdinare procesebis safuZvelze gaanalizeba,

istoriuli gamocdilebis gaTvaliswinebiT ekonomikuri mim-dinareobebis rolis gansazRvra msoflios wamyvani qveynebis

ekonomikur politikasa da, aqedan gamomdinare, ekonomikur

ganviTarebaSi. milmilmilmilTon fridTon fridTon fridTon fridmemememeninininisasasasa da, saerTod, `Cikagos skolis~ mone-

tarul Teoriaze agebuli neoliberaluri ekonomikuri poli-

tika, romelsac ukanaskneli ori aTwleulis manZilze eyrdno-boda aSS-isa da sxva mowinave qveynebis ekonomika, stabiluro-

bisa da mdgradi ekonomikuri ganviTarebis garantad iyo aRia-

rebuli. òqros wlebad~ monaTlul am periodSi aRzevebuli

2 Asatiani R. Globalization and Economic Theory. “The Caucasus and Globalization.” Vol. 2(1), Sweden, 2008. 3 asaTiani rasaTiani rasaTiani rasaTiani r. . . . globaluri finansuri krizisi da fulad-sakredito politikis multiplikaciuri efeqti saqarTveloSi. `socialuri ekonomika~, 2009, #6; asaTiani r. asaTiani r. asaTiani r. asaTiani r. saqarTvelos sabanko sistema globaluri finansuri krizisis pirobebSi. èkonomisti~, 2009, #4; arCvaZe i. arCvaZe i. arCvaZe i. arCvaZe i. globaluri ekonomikuri krizisi _ niSnebi da ten-denciebi. `socialuri ekonomika~, 2009, #1; iakobiZe d. iakobiZe d. iakobiZe d. iakobiZe d. saqarT-velo da msoflio finansuri krizisi. Tb., `komentari~, 2009; malaSxia g. malaSxia g. malaSxia g. malaSxia g. krizisi da ganviTareba. `Sromebi~. VIII tomi. saqarTve-los ekonomikur mecnierebaTa akademia. Tb., gamomcemloba `siaxle~, 2010; mesxia i. mesxia i. mesxia i. mesxia i. globaluri ekonomikuri krizisi da saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri stabilurobis problemebi. èkonomisti~, 2009, #2; Папава В. Финансовый кризис и посткоммунистический капита-лизм. «МЭиМО», 2009, №8; Григорьев Л., Салихов М. Финансовый кризис – 2008: вхождение в мировую рецессию. «Вопросы эконо-мики», 2008, №2; Krugman P. The Return of Depress on Economics and the Crisis of 2008. New York, w.w. Norton & Company, 2008.

7

monetarizmi, arc meti da arc naklebi, ekonomikur TeoriaSi

àzrTa konvergenciis~ umaRlesi gamoxatulebis nimuSs warmo-

adgenda da igi qveynis makroekonomikuri regulirebis warmate-bul modelad aRiqmeboda. magram, maSin, rodesac aSS ekonomi-

kuri qcevis `did stabilurobas~ zeimobda, xolo milTon

fridmensa da `Cikagos skolis~ sxva cnobil warmomadgenlebs (magaliTad, robert lukass, ana Svarcsa da a.S.) miaCndaT, rom

`depresiis prevenciis centraluri problema gadaWrili iyo~,

krizisis dadgomis niSnebi, gansakuTrebiT 2006 wlidan, nel-nela ikveTeboda. am dros, rogorc 2008 wlis nobelis premi-

is laureati pol krugpol krugpol krugpol krugmamamamanininini aRniSnavs, ekonomikis dargis prof-

esionalebi Tvlemdnen.4 miuxedavad aSS-is federaluri sareze-rvo bankis mcdelobisa (razedac did imedebs amyarebdnen), gam-

oesworebina keTildReobis gzidan ekonomikis mniSvnelovani ga-

daxrebi, amerikuli ekonomika acda swor gzas da `liandagidan

gadavida~.∗ pol krugmani daaskvnis, rom Cikagoeli ekonomiste-

bis komentarebi aris `bneli saukunis~ makroekonomikis produ-

qti, sadac rTulad mopovebuli codna daviwyebul iqna, xolo

ucnauri gantolebebiT gamopranWuli iracionaluri da arap-rognozirebadi Teoriebi Zalian Sors aRmoCndnen realobisa-

gan.5

samwuxarod, globalizaciis gavleniT, neoorTodoqsa-lur Teoriaze morgebuli monetarizmis Tanamedrove modeli,

fragmentaciisaken (dayofa, danawevreba) mniSvnelovani gadaxre-biT (rasac, subieqturTan erTad, obieqturi mizezebic hqonda),

safuZvlad daedo `danarCeni samyaros~ qveynebis umetesobis

ekonomikur politikas. am mxriv, arc saam mxriv, arc saam mxriv, arc saam mxriv, arc saqarqarqarqarTveTveTveTvelo iyo galo iyo galo iyo galo iyo gamomomomonaknaknaknak----

4 krugmakrugmakrugmakrugmani p. ni p. ni p. ni p. rogor moaxerxes ekonomistebma yvelafris arasworad gageba. Targmani inglisuridan. `saqarTvelos ekonomika~, 2009, #10, gv. 80. ∗ amis Sesaxeb seriozuli msjeloba iyo 2010 wlis davosis saer-TaSoriso ekonomikur forumze, sadac lideri qveynebis warmomad-genlebma mkacrad gaakritikes msoflios fulad-sakredito siste-maSi Seqmnili rTuli viTareba. 5 iqve, gv. 81.

8

lilililisisisisi. amitom SemTxveviTi ar aris, rom gansaxilvelad swored

es Tema _ `globalizacia, ekonomikuri Teoria da saqarTvelo~

_ SevarCieT, magram sanam uSualod saqarTvelosTan mimarTebaSi ganvixilavdeT aRniSnul problemas, mizanSewonilad CavTvaleT

mcireodeni istoriuli eqskursis gakeTeba.

globalizacia drois moTxovnaglobalizacia drois moTxovnaglobalizacia drois moTxovnaglobalizacia drois moTxovna dadadada

msoflio procesis gamoZaxilimsoflio procesis gamoZaxilimsoflio procesis gamoZaxilimsoflio procesis gamoZaxili

globalizacia, fragmentaciis sawinaaRmdego terminad mogvevlina XX saukunis 80-ian wlebSi, rodesac pirvelad amerikelma mecnierma TeTeTeTeoooodor ledor ledor ledor levitvitvitvitmamamama igi calkeuli bazre-bis Serwymis procesis asaxsnelad gamoiyena6. Tu Tavdapirve-lad globalizacia wminda ekonomikuri Sinaarsis termini iyo, sul ramdenime weliwadSi farTo mniSvneloba SeiZina da sazogadoebrivi cxovrebis yvela sfero moicva. 1990 wels londonSi gamocemul krebulSi _ `globalizacia: Semecneba da sazogadoeba~, es termini gamoiyenes msoflios qveynebisa da xalxebis, sxvadasaxva civilizaciebisa da kulturebis erTianobis gamosaxatavad7. amave wels, farTo gagebiT, `globalizacia~ gamoiyena iaponelma k. omemk. omemk. omemk. omem8, xolo 1999 wels davosSi gamarTuli msoflio ekonomikuri forumis mTavari Tema swored globalizacia iyo9.

dRes glodRes glodRes glodRes globabababalilililizazazazaciciciciaaaaSi iguSi iguSi iguSi igulislislislisxmexmexmexmeba msofba msofba msofba msoflilililios qveyos qveyos qveyos qveynebnebnebnebsa sa sa sa da reda reda reda regigigigioooonebnebnebnebSi mimSi mimSi mimSi mimdidididinanananare sore sore sore sociciciciaaaalurlurlurlur----ekoekoekoekononononomimimimikukukukuri, pori, pori, pori, polilililititititikukukuku----ri, kulri, kulri, kulri, kultutututururururuli, mecli, mecli, mecli, mecninininieeeerulrulrulrul----teqteqteqteqnonononolololologigigigiuuuuri da a.S. prori da a.S. prori da a.S. prori da a.S. procecececesesesese----bis unibis unibis unibis unififififikakakakacia (ercia (ercia (ercia (erTiTiTiTian sisan sisan sisan sistetetetemamamamaSi moqSi moqSi moqSi moqcecececeva) aSSva) aSSva) aSSva) aSS----isa da Crdiisa da Crdiisa da Crdiisa da Crdi----lolololoatatatatlanlanlanlantitititikukukukuri blori blori blori blokis sxva umkis sxva umkis sxva umkis sxva umsxvisxvisxvisxvilelelelesi qveysi qveysi qveysi qveynenenenebis mibis mibis mibis mier Seer Seer Seer Se----mumumumuSaSaSaSavevevevebubububuli moTli moTli moTli moTxovxovxovxovnenenenebis (norbis (norbis (norbis (normemememebis, fabis, fabis, fabis, faseseseseuuuulolololobebebebebis, kribis, kribis, kribis, kriteteteteririririuuuu----memememebibibibisa da a.S.) Sesa da a.S.) Sesa da a.S.) Sesa da a.S.) Sesasasasababababamimimimisad. sad. sad. sad.

6 Lewitt T. International Business, the Challenge of Global Competition. “Harvard Business Review”, McGraw-Hill, 2008, p.13. 7 Globalization: Knowledge and Society. London, “Sage”, 1990. 8 Ohmae K. The Borderless World: Power and Strategy in the Interlinked Economy. London, “Fontana”, 1990. 9 http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch/

9

globalizaciis terminis warmoSobas, bunebrivia, win

uZRoda TviT procesis dawyeba.

globalizacia, rogorc procesi, XX saukunis 60-iani

wlebidan gamoikveTa,∗ rodesac msoflios politikur, socia-

lur-ekonomikur Tu mecnierul-teqnikur sferoSi arsebiTi

Zvrebi daiwyo. saboloo angariSiT, sistemurma progresulma

cvlilebebma, SeiZleba iTqvas, traeqtoria Seucvala msoflio ekonomikis ganviTarebasa da SesaZlebeli gaxada sxvadasxva

qveyanaSi dagrovili potencialis met-naklebi zomiT gamovle-

na-realizacia, ramac xeli Seuwyo globalizaciis daCqarebas. XX-XXI saukuneebis mijnaze globaluri procesebis gaR-

rmavebam dRis wesrigSi daayena globalizaciis kompleqsuri

maCveneblis SemuSaveba. 2002 wels Seiqmna gloglogloglobabababalilililizazazazaciciciciis is is is KOF ----inininindeqdeqdeqdeqsisisisi. monacemebi ZiriTadad eyrdnoba saerTaSoriso sa-

valuto fondis, msoflio bankis, gaeros ganaTlebis, mecniere-

bisa da kulturis organizaciis, vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis Se-saxeb gaeros konferenciis wliur angariSebs, saerTaSoriso

safosto kavSirisa da safosto statistikis sainformacio ma-

salebs. gloglogloglobabababalilililizazazazaciciciciis is is is KOF ----inininindeqdeqdeqdeqsis zosis zosis zosis zogagagagadi maCdi maCdi maCdi maCvevevevenebnebnebneblislislislis mi-

xedviT lideroben da pirvel aTeulSi Sedian: belgia, ir-

landia, niderlandi, Sveicaria, avstria, SvedeTi, dania, kana-da, luqsemburgi da ungreTi. am maCam maCam maCam maCvevevevenebnebnebnebliT saliT saliT saliT saqarqarqarqarTveTveTveTvelo lo lo lo

59,85%59,85%59,85%59,85%----iT 90iT 90iT 90iT 90----e ade ade ade adgilgilgilgilzea.zea.zea.zea. am sayovelTao indeqsiT, procentuli gamoxatulebiT,

yovelwliurad ganisazRvreba msoflios 158 qveyanaSi politi-

kuri, ekonomikuri da socialuri globalizaciis xarisxi.10 popopopolilililititititikukukukuri glori glori glori globabababalilililizazazazaciaciaciacia gamoiTvleba iseTi maCveneb-

lebiT, rogoricaa saerTaSoriso organizaciebis wevroba,

qveyanaSi saelCoebisa da saerTaSoriso xelSekrulebebis ra-

∗ Tumca globalizaciis warmoSobis wanamZRvrebi, jer kidev didi geografiuli aRmoCenebis epoqaSi Caisaxa, rodesac sxvadasxva konti-nentze mcxovrebTa Soris savaWro kavSirebma mTeli planeta moicva. 10 http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch/

10

odenoba, gaeros usafrTxoebis sabWos misiis wevroba. am maC-

veneblebiT ganisazRvreba samTavrobo politikis gavrcelebis

xarisxi. politikur globalizaciaSi, saerTaSoriso wesri-gis damyarebis TvalsazrisiT, mniSvnelovani roli gaerosa

da sxva struqturebs akisria.

popopopolilililititititikukukukuri glori glori glori globabababalilililizazazazaciciciciis maCis maCis maCis maCvevevevenebnebnebneblis milis milis milis mixedxedxedxedviTviTviTviT pir-vel aTeulSi Sedian: safrangeTi, italia, belgia, avstria,

SvedeTi, espaneTi, Sveicaria, kanada, aSS da poloneTi. am

qveynebSi politikuri globalizaciis KOF-indeqsi 93,88%-sa da 89,03%-s Soris fiqsirdeba. sasasasaqarqarqarqarTveTveTveTvelo 46,08%lo 46,08%lo 46,08%lo 46,08%----iT iT iT iT

138138138138----e ade ade ade adgilgilgilgilzea.zea.zea.zea.

ekoekoekoekononononomimimimikukukukuri glori glori glori globabababalilililizazazazaciaciaciacia, romelSic mniSvnelovan rols transerovnuli korporaciebi (tek-ebi) asruleben11, ga-

nisazRvreba iseTi maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa saqonlis, momsaxu-

rebis, kapitalis sazRvargareT gatanis masStabebi da sagareo vaWrobaSi CarTulobis done, gaxsnilobisa da integrirebis

tendenciebis gaZliereba, informaciis nakadebis Sor manZilze

gavrcelebis xarisxi, ucxouri investiciebis qveyanaSi Semodi-nebis moculoba, saerTaSoriso vaWrobaSi sabaJo politikis

simkacris xarisxi da saimporto barierebi da a.S. ekonomikuri

globalizacia mravalmxrivi procesia. igi aZlierebs qveynebs Soris urTierTkavSirsa da sameurneo internacionalizacias.

ekonomikuri globalizaciis maCvenebliT, romelic gamo-

xatavs mocemuli qveynis msoflio ekonomikaSi integrirebis xarisxs, pirvel aTeulSi Sedian: singapuri, luqsemburgi, ir-

landia, malta, belgia, niderlandi, estoneTi, ungreTi, baxre-

ini, SvedeTi. am qveynebSi ekonomikuri globalizaciis KOF-indeqsi 96,67%-sa da 88,11%-s Soris fiqsirdeba, xolo sasasasa----

qarqarqarqarTveTveTveTvelo 69,43%lo 69,43%lo 69,43%lo 69,43%----iT 51iT 51iT 51iT 51----e ade ade ade adgilgilgilgilzeazeazeazea....

sosososociciciciaaaalulululuri glori glori glori globabababalilililizazazazaciaciaciacia ganisazRvreba saerTaSoriso turizmis ganviTarebis doniT, saerTaSoriso satelefono ka-

11 WiTanavaWiTanavaWiTanavaWiTanava n.n.n.n. globalizacia da saqarTvelos socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis problemebi. `Sromebi~. VIII tomi. saqarTvelos ekono-mikur mecnierebaTa akademia. Tb., gamomcemloba `siaxle~, gv. 91.

11

vSirebiTa da werilebiT, qveynis mTlian mosaxleobaSi ucxo-

elTa wiliT, yovel 1000 kacze internetiT momxmarebelTa

raodenobiT, wignebisa da gazeTebis vaWrobiT miRebuli Semo-savlebis wiliT mTlian Siga produqtSi da a.S. igi, kul-

turis universalizaciis safuZvelze, xels uwyobs CamorCe-

nili qveynebis xalxTa cxovrebis wesSi Tanamedrove civili-zaciis elementebis damkvidrebas, rac mniSvnelovan rols as-

rulebs sxvadasxva qveyanaTa cxovrebis wesis daaxloebaSi.

socialuri globalizaciis maCveneblis mixedviT pirv-el aTeulSia: luqsemburgi, Sveicaria, irlandia, antigua da

barbuda, kviprosi, puerto riko, singapuri, avstria, grenada

da belgia. am qveynebSi socialuri globalizaciis KOF-in-deqsi 93,87%-sa da 88,12%-s Soris farglebSia. sasasasaqarqarqarqarTveTveTveTve----

los am maClos am maClos am maClos am maCvenvenvenvenebebebebliT 58,94%liT 58,94%liT 58,94%liT 58,94%----iT 83iT 83iT 83iT 83----e ade ade ade adgigigigili uWili uWili uWili uWiravs.ravs.ravs.ravs.

ismis kiTxva: yoyoyoyovevevevelilililive ve ve ve zemozemozemozemoaRaRaRaRniSniSniSniSnulnulnulnulTan ra kavTan ra kavTan ra kavTan ra kavSiSiSiSiri ri ri ri aqvs ekoaqvs ekoaqvs ekoaqvs ekononononomimimimikur Tekur Tekur Tekur Teooooririririas?as?as?as? gadaWarbebuli ar iqneba Tu vity-

viT, rom msofmsofmsofmsoflilililios ekoos ekoos ekoos ekononononomimimimikur gankur gankur gankur ganviviviviTaTaTaTarerererebabababasa da glosa da glosa da glosa da globabababalulululuri ri ri ri

proproproprocecececesesesesebis warbis warbis warbis warmarmarmarmarTvaTvaTvaTvaSi centSi centSi centSi centrarararalulululuri adri adri adri adgigigigili swoli swoli swoli swored ekored ekored ekored ekonononono----mimimimikur Tekur Tekur Tekur Teooooririririas ukaas ukaas ukaas ukaviaviaviavia. ekonomikuri mimdinareobebi da Sesaba-

misi modelebi, SeiZleba iTqvas, gansazRvraven msoflio eko-

nomikuri wesrigis politikaSi `TamaSis wesebs~. saqme isaa, rom industriulma epoqam, romelic kapitali-

sturi ekonomikuri sistemis ganmtkicebasa da ganviTarebas

ukavSirdeba, dasabami misca xangrZliv istoriul cikls _ XVIII-XIX saukuneebis mijnidan XX saukunis 60-ian wlebamde.

adam smiadam smiadam smiadam smiTisTisTisTis periodidan moyolebuli klaklaklaklasisisisikurkurkurkur----lilililibebebeberararara----

lurlurlurlurma ekoma ekoma ekoma ekononononomimimimikurkurkurkurma Tema Tema Tema Teooooririririam ara mxoam ara mxoam ara mxoam ara mxolod Seqlod Seqlod Seqlod Seqmna wimna wimna wimna winanananapipipipirorororobebebebe----bi, arabi, arabi, arabi, aramed samed samed samed safuZfuZfuZfuZvevevevelic Calic Calic Calic Cauuuuyayayayara msofra msofra msofra msoflilililios wamos wamos wamos wamyvayvayvayvani qveyni qveyni qveyni qveynenenenebis bis bis bis

ekoekoekoekononononomimimimikukukukuri pori pori pori polilililititititikiskiskiskis ((((romelsac manamromelsac manamromelsac manamromelsac manamdededede spontanuri xasispontanuri xasispontanuri xasispontanuri xasi----

aTi hqonda)aTi hqonda)aTi hqonda)aTi hqonda) forforforformimimimirerererebas.bas.bas.bas. 1776 wels adam smiTis naSromis _ `gamokvleva xalxTa simdidris bunebisa da mizezebis Sesa-

xeb~ _ gamosvlidan iwyeba ara mxolod ekonomikuri mecnie-

rebis, aramed ekonomikuri politikis istoriac. dasavluri civilizaciis industriuli ganviTarebis

pirvel etapze gabatonebuli smiTiseuli koncefcia saxelm-

12

wifos ganixilavda rogorc `Ramis darajs~, saxelmwifo

saqmianobas ki aramwarmoeblur Sromad miiCnevda. am periodSi

yuradRebis centrSi iyo calkeuli firmis danaxarjebis mi-nimizaciisa da mogebis maqsimizaciis problema.

ùxilavi xelis~ Teoriaze agebuli klasikuri skolis

liberaluri Teoria TiTqmis 160 weli safuZvlad edo kapi-talisturi qveynebis ekonomikur politikas, vidre 1936

wels jon mejon mejon mejon meiiiinard kenard kenard kenard keininininzmazmazmazma ar gamosca Tavisi cnobili naS-

romi _ `dasaqmebis, sargeblisa da fulis zogadi Teoria~, romelsac p. krugmani (da ara mxolod igi _ r.a.) XX sau-

kunis ekonomikuri mecnierebis Sedevrad miiCnevs. keinzis es

naSromi axal etapad aris aRiarebuli ekonomikuri azris istoriaSi. makroekonomikuri Teoriis SeqmniT, keinzma revo-

luciuri gadatrialeba moaxdina ekonomikur azrovnebaSi da

istoriaSi Sevida `keinzianuri revoluciis~ saxelwodebiT. man uaryo ekonomikaSi gabatonebuli mikroekonomikuri midg-

oma da centraluri adgili makroekonomikur Teoriasa da,

aqedan gamomdinare, ekonomikis saxelmwifo regulirebas dau-Tmo. Camoyalibda axali ekonomikuri mimdinareoba keinziane-

lobis saxiT, romelmac udidesi roli Seasrula msoflios

wamyvani qveynebis ekonomikur politikaSi. SemTxveviTi ar ar-is, rom adam smiadam smiadam smiadam smiTi iTTi iTTi iTTi iTvlevlevlevleba XVIII saba XVIII saba XVIII saba XVIII sauuuukukukukunis udinis udinis udinis udides ekodes ekodes ekodes ekonononono----

mismismismistad, karl martad, karl martad, karl martad, karl marqsi _ XIX saqsi _ XIX saqsi _ XIX saqsi _ XIX sauuuukukukukuninininisa, xosa, xosa, xosa, xololololo jon mejon mejon mejon meiiiinard nard nard nard

kekekekeinzs ekuTinzs ekuTinzs ekuTinzs ekuTvnis XX savnis XX savnis XX savnis XX sauuuukukukukunis palnis palnis palnis palmamamama. `keinzianurma revoluciam~ xeli Seuwyo kapitalizmis

gadazrdas axal TvisebriobaSi. Camoyalibda sabazro reguli-

rebadi ekonomika, sadac bazari sruliad axal ampluaSi war-mosdga. Soreul warsulSi aRmocenebulma bazarma, romelmac

xangrZlivi ganviTarebis gza ganvlo, sruliad sxva Sinaarsi

SeiZina. igi aRiarebul iqna civilizaciis udides monapov-rad. kacobriobis mravalsaukunovani arsebobis manZilze ba-

zari pirvelad meurneobis efeqtian meqanizmad Camoyalibda.

axalmaaxalmaaxalmaaxalma sasasasabazbazbazbazro urro urro urro urTiTiTiTiererererToToToTobebbebbebbebma, sama, sama, sama, sakuTkuTkuTkuTrerererebis plubis plubis plubis plurarararalizlizlizlizmis mis mis mis damdamdamdamkvidkvidkvidkvidrerererebiT, SebiT, SebiT, SebiT, SeiZiZiZiZleleleleba iTba iTba iTba iTqvas, `Stamqvas, `Stamqvas, `Stamqvas, `Stampi moxpi moxpi moxpi moxsna~ `vesna~ `vesna~ `vesna~ `velur kalur kalur kalur kapipipipi----

tatatatalizmslizmslizmslizms~~~~ da gza gada gza gada gza gada gza gauxuxuxuxsna sasna sasna sasna sakuTkuTkuTkuTrerererebis debis debis debis demokmokmokmokrarararatitititizazazazaciciciciis prois prois prois pro----

13

cess, racess, racess, racess, ramac mniSmac mniSmac mniSmac mniSvnevnevnevnelolololovavavavani roni roni roni roli Seli Seli Seli Seasasasasrurururula Canasaxovala Canasaxovala Canasaxovala Canasaxovan n n n

mdgomareobaSi myofimdgomareobaSi myofimdgomareobaSi myofimdgomareobaSi myofi gloglogloglobabababalilililizazazazaciciciciis waris waris waris warmomomomoSoSoSoSobabababaSi.Si.Si.Si. aRniSnuli

procesis dawyebam daaCqara 50-ian wlebSi dedededekokokokololololoninininizazazazaciciciciis is is is farfarfarfarTod gaSTod gaSTod gaSTod gaSlalalala. amasTan, amave periodSi dawyebuli mecmecmecmecninininieeee----

rulrulrulrul----teqteqteqteqninininikukukukuri reri reri reri revovovovolulululuciciciciisisisis safuZvelze msoflioSi mimdina-

re Rrma struqturulma cvlilebebma msoflios ekonomikur ganviTarebas axali Tvisebrioba SesZina.

daiwyo momsaxurebis mwarmoebeli dargebis swrafi gan-

viTareba. 50-ian wlebSi Camoyalibda cnobili ekonomistis kkkkolinolinolinolin klarkisklarkisklarkisklarkis naSromsa _ èkonomikuri progresis piroba~

_ da sociolog JJJJanananan furastiesfurastiesfurastiesfurasties naSromSi _ `XX saukunis

udidesi imedi~ _ postindustriuli sazogadoebis Teoriis mniSvnelovani meTodologiuri debulebebi _ mTeli sazogado-

ebrivi warmoebis (erovnuli ekonomikis) pirvelad (agraruli

meurneoba), meoreul (industria) da mesameul (momsaxurebis sfero) seqtorebad dayofis Sesaxeb. XX saukunis 60-ian

wlebSi Seiqmna industriuli sazogadoebidan postindus-

triulze gadasvlis Teoriuli safuZvlebi, romlis mniS-vnelovani maxasiaTebels warmoadgenda momsaxurebis seqtoris

wilis upiratesi zrda danarCen or seqtorTan SedarebiT,

rogorc dasaqmebulTa saerTo ricxovnobaSi, ise mTliani Siga produqtis warmoebaSi. mecnierTa absoluturi umravlesobis

azriT, es gadasvla iqneboda ara miRweulidan ukan daxeva,

aramed, piriqiT, ufro maRali socialuri wesrigis damyareba. am mniSvnelovanma Teoriulma paradigmebma praqtikuli

ganxorcieleba da ekonomikaSi mimdinare pozitiurma tenden-

ciebma realuri asaxva pova gaeros saerTaSoriso standartul dargobriv klasifikaciasa (ssdk) da erovnul angariSTa

sistemaSi (eas).12 Tu ssdk-is I variantSi (1958) momsaxu-

rebis dargebs mokrZalebuli adgili ekava, mis II variantSi (1968) gacilebiT farTod iqna warmodgenili `servisuli~ wa-

rmoeba (momsaxurebis ekonomika), xolo III variantsa (1989) da

12 asaTiani r. asaTiani r. asaTiani r. asaTiani r. erovnul angariSTa sistema da ekonomikuri gan-viTarebis strategia. èkonomika da biznesi~, 2009, #6.

14

2006 wels miRebul da axlac moqmed IV variantSi momsa-

xurebis seqtors udidesi adgili uWiravs. Tu ssdk-is III

variantis 17 ganyofilebidan materialur-nivTobrivi warmoebis sfero (realuri seqtori) 5 ganyofilebiT (1. soflis meurne-

oba, satyeo meurneoba da nadiroba; 2. TevzWera; 3. samTomopo-

vebiTi mrewveloba; 4. gadammuSavebeli mrewveloba; 5. mSeneblo-ba) iyo warmodgenili, IV variantSi igi 4 ganyofilebas moi-

cavs, mTeli agraruli seqtoris erT ganyofilebad warmodge-

nis safuZvelze. danarCeni ganyofilebebi momsaxurebis diversi-ficirebis Sedegad Camoyalibebuli momsaxurebis dargebia.13

aseTi dayofis aucilebloba kidev ufro ganamtkica

gasuli saukunis 70-iani wlebis bolosa da 80-iani wlebis dasawyisSi ganviTarebuli qveynebis sazogadoebriv warmoebasa

da piradi moxmarebis struqturaSi sxvadasxva saxis momsa-

xurebis xvedriTi wonis arsebiTma gadidebam. momsaxurebis sferom yvela ZiriTadi makroekonomikuri

maCvenebliT, maT Soris dasaqmebulTa ricxovnobiT, win gaus-

wro materialur-nivTobrivi warmoebis sferos da gadaiqca ekonomikis umsxviles seqtorad. am procesma miiRo ekono-

mikis `servizaciis~ saxelwodeba. magaliTad, Tu 1955-1970

wlebSi iaponiis mTliani Siga produqtis struqturaSi mom-saxurebis sferos wili mxolod 0,4%-iT gadidda, 1970-

1985 wlebSi aRniSnulma maCvenebelma 10,9%-s miaRwia, xolo

momsaxurebis sferoSi dasaqmebulTa wili 39,6-dan 55,1%-mde gaizarda, 1986 wlisaTvis ki ukve 59%-mde avida.14 amave

wels aSS-Si ekonomikis mesameul seqtorSi dasaqmebulTa ri-

13 momsaxurebis tipologia sabazro ekonomikaSi ufro detalurad ix. asaTiani r. asaTiani r. asaTiani r. asaTiani r. momsaxureba da sabazro sistema. Tb., `Tbilisis universitetis gamomcemloba~, 1993, gv. 43-54. 14 Япония: смена модели экономического роста. Отв. ред. Лебедева И.П., Кравцевич А.И. М., ̀ Наука~, 1990, с. 141; asaTianiasaTianiasaTianiasaTiani rrrr. . . . ekonomi-kis servizacia _ sazogadoebis postindustriuli ganviTarebis mniSvnelovani maxasiaTebeli. `saqarTvelos mecnierebaTa akademiis macne~. ekonomikis seria, I tomi, 1993, #2, gv. 69-70.

15

cxovnobam 72,8% Seadgina, xolo 1990 wlisaTvis _ 77%.15

saqme isaa, rom kompiuterulma avtomatizaciam, univer-

saluri egm-ebisa da axali Taobis personaluri kompiutere-bis danergvis safuZvelze informaciis swrafad gadamuSavebam

da, saerTod, informatizaciis ganviTarebam, amasTan, samrewv-

elo warmoebaSi erTeuli produqciis energo- da masalate-vadobis mniSvnelovanma Semcirebam (rac resursdamzogveli

ekonomikis swrafi ganviTarebis maCvenebelia), ekonomikis re-

alur seqtors, gansakuTrebiT samrewvelo warmoebas, iersaxe Seucvala. masalatevadi sanedleulo tipis dargebis (Savi da

feradi metalurgiis, qimiuris, navTob-qimiuris da a.S.) adg-

ili mecnierebatevadma dargebma daikava, romelTa produqci-asa da uaxles teqnologiebs (samrewvelo eleqtronikas,

robototeqnikas, lazerul teqnikas, saamwyobo avtomatur

xazebs, bioteqlologias, naxevargamtarul teqnikas, mikroe-leqtronikasa da sxv.) arsebiTi cvlilebebi Seaqvs warmoebis

ciklSi. amas adasturebs, magaliTad, Sav metalurgiaSi ze-

gamZle foladis warmoeba, fxvnilis metalurgiis ganviTar-eba da a.S.

ekonomikis realur seqtorze uSualo gavlena moaxdina

da misi ekonomikuri saqmianobidan gamomdinare, masSi met-naklebad aisaxa diversificirebuli speqtriT warmodgenili

momsaxurebis sasargeblo efeqti. civilizebul samyaroSi

momsaxurebis sferom TvalsaCino adgili daimkvidra da mate-rialur-nivTobrivi warmoebasTan mizez-Sedegobriv kavSirur-

TierTobaSi aRmoCnda.

sazogadoebis ganviTarebaSi mniSvnelovani roli sociasociasociasocia----lur infrastrulur infrastrulur infrastrulur infrastruqqqqturasturasturasturas (janmrTelobis dacva, ganaTleba, sam-

gzavro transporti, sabanko-komunaluri meurneoba, dasvene-

bis organizaciis sfero, sazogadoebrivi kveba da sxv.) dae-kisra. amis paralelurad sawarmoo moxmarebis struqturaSi

sagrZnoblad imata warwarwarwarmomomomoebrivi ebrivi ebrivi ebrivi infrastruqturisinfrastruqturisinfrastruqturisinfrastruqturis (sainfor-

macio momsaxurebis, mecnierebis, saqmiani momsaxurebis _ li-

15 Портной М. Экономика США сегодня. “Экономист”, 1992, №3, с. 11.

16

zingi, inJiniringi, marketingi da a.S., sasawyobo meurneobis,

kavSirgabmulobis, eleqtro-, gaz- da wyalmomaragebis, sat-

virTo transportis, vaWrobisa da sxv.) wilma. ekonomikis saxelmwifo regulirebis gaZlierebam ganapiroba insinsinsinstititititutututu----

ciuri infrastruqtuciuri infrastruqtuciuri infrastruqtuciuri infrastruqturisrisrisris (saxelmwifo aparati, safinanso-

sakredito sfero, dazRveva da sxv.) ganviTareba. teqnolo-giurma bumma aucilebeli gaxada ekologiuri infekologiuri infekologiuri infekologiuri infrarararastrustrustrustruqqqqtutututu----

risrisrisris (garemos makontrolirebeli saxelmwifo da municipal-

uri organoebi, sazogadoebis ganviTarebis ekologiuri piro-bebis uzrunvelyofis organizaciuli struqturebi da sxv.)

ganviTarebac. sabazro urTierTobebis rTulma sistemam moiT-

xova sabazro infrassabazro infrassabazro infrassabazro infrastruqturistruqturistruqturistruqturis (birJebis, bankebis, sadazRv-evo da sainvesticio kompaniebisa da a.S) swrafi ganviTareba.

birJis saxiT farTod Camoyalibda organizebuli bazrebi, sa-

xeldobr, masobrivi warmoebis saqonlis (saqonlis birJa), fasiani qaRaldebis (safondo birJa), valutis (valutis bir-

Ja), Sromis (Sromis birJa) da a.S.

momsaxurebis mwarmoebeli dargebis integrirebis safuZ-velze Seqmnili infrastruqtura sabazro ekonomikis norma-

luri funqcionirebis mniSvnelovani maxasiaTebeli gaxda.

warmoebis procesebis kompleqsurma avtomatizaciam, en-ergiis axali wyaroebisa da bioteqnologiis gamoyenebam, mik-

roeleqtronikisa da telekomunikaciuri teqnikis miRwevaTa

aTvisebam da a.S. Tvisebrivad axali etapi Seqmna ekonomikur Tvisebrivad axali etapi Seqmna ekonomikur Tvisebrivad axali etapi Seqmna ekonomikur Tvisebrivad axali etapi Seqmna ekonomikur ganviganviganviganviTaTaTaTarebaSi, msoflios wamyvani qveynebis generaluri rebaSi, msoflios wamyvani qveynebis generaluri rebaSi, msoflios wamyvani qveynebis generaluri rebaSi, msoflios wamyvani qveynebis generaluri

ganviganviganviganviTaTaTaTarebis strategirebis strategirebis strategirebis strategiaSi.aSi.aSi.aSi. arnaxulma teqnologiurma prog-

resma gamoiwvia kapitalizmis transformacia axal sazoga-doebaSi, rac aisaxa kidec postindustrializaciis proces-

Si, ekonomikuri zrdis tempebis amaRlebasa da ekonomikis

realuri seqtoris swraf ganviTarebaSi. amasTan dakavSire-biT, dasavleTis ekonomikur literaturaSi cnobilia ddddanielanielanielaniel

bebebebellllisisisis postindustriuli sazogadoebis Teoria. misi azriT,

sazogadoebam Tavis ganviTarebaSi ganvlo Semdegi stadiebi: sasoflosasoflosasoflosasoflo----sameurneo civisameurneo civisameurneo civisameurneo civilizacia lizacia lizacia lizacia (es iyo pirveli talRa,

rodesac monadireTa sazogadoeba Secvala agrarulma sazoga-

17

doebam), inininindudududusssstriuli era triuli era triuli era triuli era (es iyo meore talRa, rodesac

agraruli sazogadoeba Secvala industriulma sazogadoebam)

da postindustriuli era era era era (es aris mesame talRa, rodesac wamyvan rols momsaxurebis seqtori asrulebs).16

swored XX saukunis 70-iani wlebidan inininindusdusdusdustritritritriuuuuli li li li

sasasasazozozozogagagagadodododoeeeebis gabis gabis gabis gadazdazdazdazrdam posrdam posrdam posrdam postintintintindusdusdusdustritritritriululululSiSiSiSi axali biZgi mis-ca msoflio ganviTarebas da daaCqara globalizaciis proce-

si. kakakakacobcobcobcobririririoooobis ganbis ganbis ganbis ganviviviviTaTaTaTarerererebis am Tvibis am Tvibis am Tvibis am Tvisebsebsebsebriv naxriv naxriv naxriv naxtomtomtomtomSi yveSi yveSi yveSi yvelalalalaze ze ze ze

mniSmniSmniSmniSvnevnevnevnelolololovavavavani iyo is, rom man ekoni iyo is, rom man ekoni iyo is, rom man ekoni iyo is, rom man ekononononomimimimikas sokas sokas sokas sociciciciaaaalulululuri oriri oriri oriri orienenenen----tatatatacia Sescia Sescia Sescia SesZiZiZiZina.na.na.na.

aRsaniSnavia isic, rom gasuli saukunis 70-ian wlebSi

saerTaSoriso finansuri bazrebis liberalizaciam (rac ukav-Sirdeba mcuravi savaluto kursebis reJimis Seqmnas), amas-

Tan, tarifebisa da fasebis Sesaxeb urugvais generalurma

SeTanxmebam xeli Seuwyo msoflio savaWro sistemis gaxsni-lobas, msoflio vaWrobis mkveTr zrdasa da globaluri

procesebis gaRrmavebas.

am garemoebebma dasabami misca sazogadoebriv gardaqmnebs axal ampluaSi da dadadadadedededebibibibiTi gavTi gavTi gavTi gavlelelelena mona mona mona moaxaxaxaxdidididina Tana Tana Tana Tananananamedmedmedmedrorororove save save save sa----

zozozozogagagagadodododoeeeebis forbis forbis forbis formimimimirerererebabababaze, axal soze, axal soze, axal soze, axal sociciciciumumumumze,ze,ze,ze, ramac xeli Seuwyo

humanizaciis procesebis gaRrmavebas. socialur sferoSi aq-tiuri rolis SesrulebiT, saxelmwifom `ke`ke`ke`keTilTilTilTildRedRedRedReoooobis sabis sabis sabis sa----

xelxelxelxelmwimwimwimwifos~fos~fos~fos~ niSnebi SeiZina. ganviTarebulma samyarom miiRo

axali drois gamowveva. safuZveli Caeyara sasasasamomomomoqaqaqaqalalalalaqo saqo saqo saqo sazozozozogagagaga----dodododoeeeebis forbis forbis forbis formimimimirerererebas.bas.bas.bas. kacobriobis ganviTarebis ganvlil peri-

odTan SedarebiT, es iyo wingadadgmuli nabiji da axali sit-

yva ufro maRali socialuri da, amave dros, axaaxaaxaaxali msoli msoli msoli msofffflio lio lio lio weswesweswesririririgisgisgisgis damyarebis TvalsazrisiT. `ke`ke`ke`keTilTilTilTildRedRedRedReoooobis sabis sabis sabis saxxxxelelelelmwimwimwimwi----

fo~ pofo~ pofo~ pofo~ polilililititititikis gakis gakis gakis gatatatatarerererebiT, wibiT, wibiT, wibiT, wina planna planna planna planze waze waze waze wamomomomoiiiiwia sawia sawia sawia sazzzzoooogagagagadodododoeeee----

bis sobis sobis sobis sociciciciaaaalulululuri dacri dacri dacri dacvis funvis funvis funvis funqciqciqciqciam, ris gaam, ris gaam, ris gaam, ris garererereSec SeSec SeSec SeSec SeuZuZuZuZlelelelebebebebelia lia lia lia bazbazbazbazris prinris prinris prinris princicicicipepepepebis rebis rebis rebis reaaaalilililizazazazacia da igi cia da igi cia da igi cia da igi ekoekoekoekononononomimimimikis stakis stakis stakis stabibibibililililizazazaza----

ciciciciis erTis erTis erTis erT----erT mniSerT mniSerT mniSerT mniSvnevnevnevnelolololovan mivan mivan mivan mimarmarmarmarTuTuTuTulelelelebabababadaa aRidaa aRidaa aRidaa aRiaaaarerererebubububuli.li.li.li.

16 Белл Д. Грядущее постиндустриальное общество. Опыт социального прогнозирования. М., "Academia", 1999.

18

globalizacias axali impulsi SesZina 90-ian wlebSi

elviseburad ganviTarebulma kataklizmebma, rac swrafad da-

srulda msoflio socialisturi sistemis daSliTa da `ko-munisturi socializmis~ xanis dasrulebiT. es drois moT-

xovna iyo da msoflio procesis gamoZaxilic.

dResdResdResdRes gloglogloglobabababalilililizazazazacia Tacia Tacia Tacia Tananananamedmedmedmedrorororove msofve msofve msofve msoflilililios erTos erTos erTos erT----ererererTi Ti Ti Ti ZiZiZiZiririririTaTaTaTadi Tadi Tadi Tadi Tavivivivisesesesebubububurerererebaa, robaa, robaa, robaa, romemememelic, lic, lic, lic, SeSeSeSeiZiZiZiZleleleleba iTba iTba iTba iTqvas, `ganqvas, `ganqvas, `ganqvas, `gansazsazsazsaz----

Rvravs msofRvravs msofRvravs msofRvravs msoflio polio polio polio polilililititititikis Sikis Sikis Sikis Sinanananaarss~.arss~.arss~.arss~.17 sazogadoebrivi

cxovrebis mniSvnelovani nawili globalur procesebzea da-

mokidebuli.∗ igi radikalurad cvlis Tanamedrove sazogado-

ebis ara mxolod cxovrebis Sinaarss, aramed ekonomikis

Rrma struqturul cvlilebebsac ganapirobebs.

amitomacaa, rom amJamad ganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonoganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonoganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonoganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonommmm----ikaikaikaika, struqturuli TvalsazrisiT, diametralurad gansxvavdeba

wina epoqebis ekonomikisagan, rodesac dominirebuli mdgomare-

oba ekava jer soflis meurneobas, xolo Semdeg _ mrewvelo-bas. magaliTad, Tu 1820 wels aSS-is agrarul seqtorSi dasa-

qmebuli iyo momuSaveTa 70%, am dargis industrializaciis

safuZvelze, 2007 wlis monacemebiT, aSS-is agrarul seqtorSi dasaqmebuli iyo mxolod 1,0%, industriaSi _ 19,2%, xolo

momsaxurebis sferoSi _ 79,8%. iaponiaSi es Tanafardoba,

Sesabamisad, aseTia: 4,4%, 27,9% da 66,4%; germaniaSi _ 2,4%, 29,7%, 67,8%; safrangeTSi _ 3,8%, 24,3%, 71,8%; avstraliaSi

_ 3,6%, 21,1%, 75,0%; luqsemburgSi _ 2,2%, 17,2%, 80,6%; evrokavSirSi _ 5,6%, 27,7%, 66,7% da a.S.18

arasakmaod ganviTarebuli (axalindustriuli qveynebis) arasakmaod ganviTarebuli (axalindustriuli qveynebis) arasakmaod ganviTarebuli (axalindustriuli qveynebis) arasakmaod ganviTarebuli (axalindustriuli qveynebis)

ekonomikiekonomikiekonomikiekonomikisaTsaTsaTsaTvvvvisisisis arsebobs sxvadasxva midgoma, romelTa Soris aRsaniSnavia: a) samrewvelo ganviTareba da importis Senacvle-

17 dadadadaviviviviTaSTaSTaSTaSvivivivili z.li z.li z.li z. nacionalizmi da globalizacia. Tb., `mecniereba~, 2003, gv. 189. ∗ postkomunistur qveynebTan kavSirurTierTobis ganmtkicebis miz-niT, 1997 wels natos sistemaSi Camoyalibda èvèvèvèvrorororoatatatatlanlanlanlantitititikukukukuri ri ri ri TaTaTaTanamnamnamnamSromSromSromSromlolololobis sabbis sabbis sabbis sabWo~Wo~Wo~Wo~, romelmac Secvala `Crdiloatlantikuri partniorobis sabWo~. 18 http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world_factbook/geas

19

ba Siga warmoebiT; b) soflis meurneobis saxelmwifo mxardaW-

era da ekonomikis nebismier seqtorSi, saeqsporto produqciis

warmoebis upiratesi ganviTarebis safuZvelze ucxouri valu-tis miRebis mizniT, eqsportis gazrda; g) qalaqisa da sasof-

lo raionebis balansirebuli ganviTareba da a.S. axalindust-

riul qveynebSi, ganviTarebul qveynebTan SedarebiT, maRalia agrarul seqtorSi dasaqmebulTa xvedriTi wona. magaliTad,

2007 wlis monacemebiT braziliaSi igi Seadgenda 20%-s.19

rac Seexeba ganviTarebad, ganviTarebad, ganviTarebad, ganviTarebad, `mesame samyaros~ qveynebs,`mesame samyaros~ qveynebs,`mesame samyaros~ qveynebs,`mesame samyaros~ qveynebs, sadac industrializaciis done dabalia, maTTan mimarTebaSi

ganviTarebis generaluri strategiisadmi kidev ufro gansx-

vavebuli midgomaa. I msoflio omis Semdgomi periodidan 60-iani wlebis dasawyisamde ekonomikur literaturaSi gabato-

nebuli iyo Sexeduleba imis Sesaxeb, rom sustad ganviTare-

buli qveynebisTvis yvelaze misaRebi samrewvelo warmoebis upiratesi ganviTarebis strategiaa. mravalma ganviTarebadma

qveyanam gaiziara es Sexeduleba da SeimuSava kidec Sesabami-

si strategia. zogierT qveyanaSi imedismomcemi Sedegebic ki iqna miRweuli (gansakuTrebiT im qveynebSi, romlebic upira-

tesobas eqsportis ganviTarebas aniWebdnen, importSemcvle-

li warmoebis ganviTarebasTan SedarebiT), magram qveynebis umravlesobam savalalo Sedegebi miiRo, rac ZiriTadad ga-

mowveuli iyo Semdegi mizezebiT:

1. investiciebTan dakavSirebuli sirTuleebi. mrewve-lobis prioritetuli ganviTareba sakmaod did investiciebs

moiTxovda, ucxouri investiciebis mozidva arajansaRi sain-

vesticio klimatis gamo TiTqmis SeuZlebeli iyo, adgilob-rivi sainvesticio resursebi ki, jer erTi, mcire odenobis

iyo da meorec, maTi gadasrola mrewvelobaSi xdeboda sof-

lis meurneobis xarjze da mis sazianod, rac qveyanaSi mwvave sasursaTo problemebs warmoSobda;

2. adgilobrivma mrewvelobam naklebganviTarebuli teq-

nologiebisa da dabalkvalificiuri samuSao Zalis gamo, ver

19 http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world_factbook/geas

20

SeZlo importisadmi konkurenciis gaweva;

3. Sida bazris siviwrovisa da dabali moTxovnis gamo,

es qveynebi ver axerxebdnen realizaciasTan dakavSirebuli problemebis gadaWras.

am obieqturi mizezebidan gamomdinare, ganviTarebadi

qveynebis umravlesobam ver SeZlo sagadasaxdelo balansis arsebiTi gaumjobeseba, amasTan, importis struqturac Seic-

vala. mza samomxmareblo saqonlis nacvlad masSi metwilad

sWarbobda mowyobilobebi, nedleuli, danadgarebis calke-uli nawilebi da a.S. amitom am qveynebis damoukidebloba am qveynebis damoukidebloba am qveynebis damoukidebloba am qveynebis damoukidebloba

kidev ufro SeizRuda, xolo Sidaekonomikuri problemebi kidev ufro SeizRuda, xolo Sidaekonomikuri problemebi kidev ufro SeizRuda, xolo Sidaekonomikuri problemebi kidev ufro SeizRuda, xolo Sidaekonomikuri problemebi

gamwvavgamwvavgamwvavgamwvavda. saxeldobr, swrafi tempiT izrdeboda soflidan da. saxeldobr, swrafi tempiT izrdeboda soflidan da. saxeldobr, swrafi tempiT izrdeboda soflidan da. saxeldobr, swrafi tempiT izrdeboda soflidan qaqaqaqalaqSi migracia da, Sesabamisad, umuSevroba, ralaqSi migracia da, Sesabamisad, umuSevroba, ralaqSi migracia da, Sesabamisad, umuSevroba, ralaqSi migracia da, Sesabamisad, umuSevroba, rasac mohsac mohsac mohsac mohyva yva yva yva

politikuri procesebipolitikuri procesebipolitikuri procesebipolitikuri procesebis gamwvaveba.s gamwvaveba.s gamwvaveba.s gamwvaveba.

amitom ganviTarebadma qveynebma bolo periodSi Secva-les TavianTi ekonomikuri ganviTarebis kursi da upirate-

soba soflis meurneobas mianiWes. dRes msoflioSi igi aRi-

arebulia sustad ganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonomikis domini-rebul seqtorad. ganviTarebis strategiebis umravlesobaSic

upiratesoba swored agrarul seqtors aqvs miniWebuli. am

tendencias oficialuri statistikac adasturebs. magaliTad, 2007 wlis monacemebiT, nigeriis agrarul seqtorSi dasaqme-

buli iyo momuSaveTa 70,0%, industriaSi _ 10,0%, xolo

momsaxurebis sferoSi _ 20,0%; mozambikSi, Sesabamisad, 81,0%, 6,0%, 13,0%; liberiaSi _ 70,0%, 8,0%, 22,0%; sudanSi

80,0%, 7,0%, 13,0% da a.S. SedarebiT `Serbilebulia~ es Ta-

nafardoba TurqeTSi _ 29,5%, 24,7%, 45,8%. rac Seexeba saqarTvelos, 2006 wlis oficialuri mo-

nacemebiT, es Tanafardoba aseTia: agrarul seqtorSi dasaq-

mebuli iyo momuSaveTa 55,6%, industriaSi _ 8,9%, xolo momsaxurebis sferoSi _ 35,5%; SedarebisTvis, somxeTSi _ 46,2%, 15,6%, 38,2%; azerbaijanSi _ 39,3%, 12,1%, 48,6%.20

aseTia dRes msoflio ekonomikuri politikis logika,

20 http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world_factbook/geas

21

ganviTarebis generaluri kursi, rac samyaros kidev ufro

diferencirebulsa da kontrastuls xdis. erTi ram ki cxa-

dia: dRes msoflioSi ar arsebobs winaaRmdegoba maRalteqdRes msoflioSi ar arsebobs winaaRmdegoba maRalteqdRes msoflioSi ar arsebobs winaaRmdegoba maRalteqdRes msoflioSi ar arsebobs winaaRmdegoba maRalteq----nonononologiur momsaxurebasa da maRalteqnologiulogiur momsaxurebasa da maRalteqnologiulogiur momsaxurebasa da maRalteqnologiulogiur momsaxurebasa da maRalteqnologiur industrias r industrias r industrias r industrias

Soris. winaaRmdegobebs mxolod moZvelebuli teqnologiebi Soris. winaaRmdegobebs mxolod moZvelebuli teqnologiebi Soris. winaaRmdegobebs mxolod moZvelebuli teqnologiebi Soris. winaaRmdegobebs mxolod moZvelebuli teqnologiebi

da naklebkonkurentunariani produqcia ganapirobebsda naklebkonkurentunariani produqcia ganapirobebsda naklebkonkurentunariani produqcia ganapirobebsda naklebkonkurentunariani produqcia ganapirobebs, rac sustad ganviTarebuli qveynebisTvisaa damaxasiaTebeli, maTi

xvedria. am situaciidan Tavis daRweva did Zalisxmevas, mra-

valjer gazomvasa da erTxel gaWras moiTxovs. saqarTveloc dRes am dilemis winaSe aRmoCnda.

globalizacia da axali msoflio wesrigiglobalizacia da axali msoflio wesrigiglobalizacia da axali msoflio wesrigiglobalizacia da axali msoflio wesrigi

Tanamedrove pirobebSi sazogadoebaSi globalizacias

ufro negatiuri datvirTva aqvs, vidre pozitiuri. ar SeiZ-leba globalizaciis erTmniSvnelovani Sefaseba – mxolod

pozitiuri, an mxolod negatiuri. igi orives moicavs. amas-

Tan, arc globalizaciisgan gverdze gadgoma SeiZleba. es qveynis izolaciaSi yofnas niSnavs.

globalizacia mizez-Sedegobriv kavSirSia axaaxaaxaaxali msoli msoli msoli mso----

flio wesflio wesflio wesflio wesririririgigigigisa da sasa da sasa da sasa da samomomomoqaqaqaqalalalalaqo saqo saqo saqo sazozozozogagagagadodododoeeeebisbisbisbis Camoyalibebis procesebTan. igi ara mxolod aaxloebs qveynebs erTmaneTTan,

aramed urTierTdamokidebulsac xdis. aqedan gamomdinare,

globalizacia aCqarebs calkeul qveynebSi Ria sazogadoebe-bis21 Camoyalibebas da angrevs Caketil, totalitarul re-

21 termini `Ria sazogadoeba~ pirvelad gamoiyena frangma filoso-fosma, nobelis premiis laureatma anri bergsonma anri bergsonma anri bergsonma anri bergsonma wignSi _ `reli-giisa da moralis ori wyaro~ (1932). Ria sazogadoebis Camoyali-bebis idea Semdeg ganaviTara cnobilma avstro-ingliselma filo-sofosma karl poperma karl poperma karl poperma karl poperma wignSi _ `Ria sazogadoeba da misi mtrebi~ (1966). anri bergsoni cnobda ori tipis sazogadoebas da, Sesabami-sad, ori tipis morals: `Caketilsa~ da `Rias~. misi azriT, pirve-li akmayofilebs socialuri instiqtis moTxovnilebebs da miznad isaxavs modgmis gadarCenas, romlis pirobebSic pirovneba aris ko-

22

Jimebsa da ekonomikebs. igi xels uwyobs partnioruli urTi-

erTobebis wina planze wamowevas, msoflio masStabiT resu-

rsebis efeqtian gamoyenebas, mecnierebis miRwevebis mokle va-daSi danergvas, resursdamzogveli da naklebnarCeniani teq-

nologiebis farTod gavrcelebas, inteleqtualuri kapital-

is warmoCenas, internetuli qselisa da, saerTod, informa-ciuli teqnologiebis swraf ganviTarebas, kapitalis Tavi-

sufal moZraobas, gansakuTrebiT, finansuri kapitalis mobi-

lurobis zrdasa da a.S. Tu industriul sazogadoebaSi ganviTarebis umaRles

kriteriums materialuri da finansuri kapitalis dagroveba

warmoadgenda, postindustriul stadiaze wina planze cod-nis dagrovebam gadmoinacvla. XXI saXXI saXXI saXXI sauuuukukukukune msofne msofne msofne msoflilililios sTaos sTaos sTaos sTavavavava----

zobs ekozobs ekozobs ekozobs ekononononomimimimikukukukuri ganri ganri ganri ganviviviviTaTaTaTarerererebis axal mobis axal mobis axal mobis axal models.dels.dels.dels. es modeli

efuZneba inovaciur ekonomikas, romelSic upirveles rols inteleqtualuri kapitali, informaciuli da telekomunika-

ciuri teqnologiebi asrulebs.

sayovelTaod cnobilia, rom bazari konkurenciis gare-Se fiqciaa. amasTan, ukanasknel periodSi konkurencia gascda

erTi qveynis farglebs da globaluri masStabebi SeiZina.

cnobilia, rom qveynis konkurentunarianoba, rogorc ganviTa-rebis umniSvnelovanesi indikatori, gansazRvravs TiToeuli

qveynis adgilsa da rols msoflio ekonomikaSi. isic cnobi-

lia, rom erT qveyanas ar SeuZlia moipovos konkurentuli upiratesoba ekonomikis yvela dargSi, an romelime (agraru-

li, industriuli Tu momsaxurebis) seqtoris umetes darge-

bSi. qveynebi warmatebas aRweven mxolod konkurentul dar-gebSi. qveyana rom konkurentunariani iyos, man Tavisi produ-

leqtivis msxverpli, meore ki ukavSirdeba zneobriv faseulobebs, romelic modgmis gadarCenis, misi SenarCunebis interesebze maR-laa. karl poperma `Ria~, `humanuri~ sazogadoeba daupirispira `Caketil~, `totalitarul~ sazogadoebas. am ukanasknels, anti-komunisturi poziciebidan, igi miakuTvnebda socialistur sazoga-doebas (Конфорт М. Открытая философия и открытое общество. Пе-ревод с английского. М., ̀ Наука~, 1972).

23

qcia unda gayidos sazRvargareT saerTaSoriso sabazro qse-

lis meSveobiT. es aris didi saTamaSo veli, romelic Tavi-

sebur kompass warmoadgens TiToeuli qveynisaTvis _ ra gzas daadges, romeli dargebi ganaviTaros, ra unda iyos misi

ekonomikuri ganviTarebis generaluri strategia.

uaxloes warsulSi qveynis konkurentul upiratesobas gansazRvravdnen iseTi parametrebiT, rogoricaa mdidari bu-

nebrivi resursebi, valutis simyare, iafi samuSao Zalis siWar-

be, biujetis mdgomareoba, dabali saprocento ganakveTi, menej-mentis ganviTarebis done da a.S. Tumca amJamad es faseulobebi,

mniSvnelovan, magram ara mTavar gavlenas axdenen qveynis kon-

kurentunarianobaze. msoflio praqtikam ar daadastura aseTi midgomis utyuaroba, am mosazrebaTa WeSmariteba. ase rom iyos,

maSin riT SeiZleba aixsnas iaponiis an samxreT koreis war-

matebebi, romlebic bunebrivi resursebis mwvave deficits ganicdian, an bunebrivi resursebiT mdidari ruseTis warumate-

bloba? an kidev, germania, Sveicaria da SvedeTi ganviTarda sa-

muSao Zalis simciris (Sesabamisad, maRali xelfasebis) pirobe-bSi, xolo aSS-Si, iaponiasa da sxva qveynebSi cxovrebis done

swrafad izrdeboda biujetis deficitis miuxedavad.

is garemoeba, rom XXI saukune aRiarebulia inovacie-bis, codnis, inteleqtualuri kapitalis saukuned, mniSvne-

lovnad cvlis qveynis konkurentunarianobis safuZvlebs.

dRes aqcenti keTdeba iseT faseulobebze, rogoricaa xari-sxi, nou-hau, bazrisadmi axleburi midgoma, axali saxeobis

produqciis Seqmna da a.S.

ismeba kiTxva: dRes rogor yalibdeba zogierT qveyanaSi iseTi biznes-garemo, romelic SesaZleblobas aZlevs kompani-

ebs swrafad danergon siaxleebi da ufro ganviTardnen, vidre

sxva qveynebis kompaniebi? saerTaSoriso gamocdileba gviC-venebs, rom kompaniebma da, aqedan gamomdinare, qveynebma war-

matebas msoflio bazrebze erTmaneTisagan gansxvavebuli stra-

tegiebiT miaRwies. dRes qveynebi konkurentul upiratesobas inovaciebis, axali teqnologiebis gziT aRweven. isini afuZ-

neben axal standartebs, investiciebs deben codnis ganaxle-

24

baSi. dRes ganviTarebuli qveynebis warmoebis matebis 75-dan

100%-mde swored inovaciebis gamoyenebiT miiRweva.22 amitom dRes sasasasaererererTaTaTaTaSoSoSoSoririririso vaWso vaWso vaWso vaWrorororobabababaSi SeSi SeSi SeSi SefafafafarderderderdebibibibiTi upiTi upiTi upiTi upi----

rarararatetetetesosososobis Tebis Tebis Tebis Teooooria Tanria Tanria Tanria TandadadadaTan adTan adTan adTan adgils uTgils uTgils uTgils uTmobs qveymobs qveymobs qveymobs qveynis konnis konnis konnis konkukukuku----

renrenrenrentutututuli upili upili upili upirarararatetetetesosososobis Tebis Tebis Tebis Teooooririririas.as.as.as. es axali Teoria gascda

warmoebis xarjebis analizs da aqcents iseT faseulobebze akeTebs, rogoricaa xarisxi, nou�hau, bazrisadmi axleburi

midgoma, axali dizaini, axali saxeobis produqciis Seqmna

da a.S. konkurenciis globalizacia kompaniebisagan moiTxovs axlebur azrovnebas. amJamad sainformacio teqnologiebSi

momxdarma revoluciam da transportis sferoSi ganxorcie-

lebulma kolosalurma progresma Seamcira warmoebis xarje-bi. amitom aseTi transformaciis pirobebSi Seicvala Tavad

warwarwarwarmomomomoeeeebis masbis masbis masbis masStaStaStaStabis efeqbis efeqbis efeqbis efeqtic.tic.tic.tic.

globalizacia jer kidev XIX saukunis Suaxanebis ide-is – Tavisufali vaWrobis realizacias axdens. transnacio-

naluri kompaniebi da kapitalis msoflio bazrebi aTavisuf-

leben bizness politikuri SezRudvebisagan, riTac sul uf-ro met Tavisuflebas aniWeben bazars. amasTan, swrafi tem-

piT mimdinareobs biznes-saqmianobis internacionalizaciac.

mmarTvelobis avtokratiuli formidan rigma qveynebma demok-ratiulisken aiRes gezi. dRes demokratia universalur ide-

ologiadaa aRiarebuli. amitom arademokratiuli reJimebi

qronikuli ekonomikuri CamorCenilobis maCveneblad iTvleba. bolo periodSi ara mxolod postindustriul, aramed

mraval axalindustiul qveyanaSic mecniereba ganixileba umn-

iSvnelovanes nacionalur prioritetad. am qveynebma TiTqmis 2-jer gazardes TavianTi inovaciuri potenciali da uaxlo-

vdebian evropuli qveynebis Sesabamis maCvenebels. msgavsi te-

ndencia SeimCneva CineTSic. inovaciuri ekonomikis ganviTare-bis TvalsazrisiT udides warmatebas miaRwies evrokavSiris

qveynebma. magaliTad, irlandia CamorCenili qveynidan iqca

inovaciuri kapitalis dabandebisaTvis erT-erT mimzidvel

22 http://www.chelt.ru2001/12/uzbashianz-12.html

25

qveyanad, rac daetyo kidec mis ganviTarebas.

inovaciuri procesebis stimulirebaSi erT-erTi mniSv-

nelovani faqtori venCuruli dafinansebis institutebi gax-da. venCuruli kapitalis formirebaSi monawiloebas iReben

bankebi, sapensio fondebi, sadazRvevo kompaniebi da a.S.

amJamad msoflioSi maRalteqnologiuri warmoebiT pi-rvel aTeulSi Sedian fineTi, aSS, SvedeTi, iaponia, samxr-

eTi korea, niderlandi, didi britaneTi, kanada, avstralia

da singapuri. maT mohyveba CineTi. rac Seexeba ruseTs, mas maRali teqnologiebis msoflio bazarze mxolod 1%-mde

uWiravs.

saqarTvelo, ekonomikis inteleqtualizaciis donis (tesaqarTvelo, ekonomikis inteleqtualizaciis donis (tesaqarTvelo, ekonomikis inteleqtualizaciis donis (tesaqarTvelo, ekonomikis inteleqtualizaciis donis (teqqqq-ninininikur miRwevaTa indeqkur miRwevaTa indeqkur miRwevaTa indeqkur miRwevaTa indeqsis) mixedviT, msoflioSi yvelaze Casis) mixedviT, msoflioSi yvelaze Casis) mixedviT, msoflioSi yvelaze Casis) mixedviT, msoflioSi yvelaze Camomomomo----

rCenili qveynebis jgufSia moqceuli.rCenili qveynebis jgufSia moqceuli.rCenili qveynebis jgufSia moqceuli.rCenili qveynebis jgufSia moqceuli. ra Tqma unda, saqarT-

veloSi, misi Taviseburebebidan gamomdinare, unda ganviTardes agraruli seqtori, romelic dRes rTuli problemebis wina-

Sea. amisaTvis ki, pirvel yovlisa, aucilebelia politikuri

neba da saxelmwifos aqtiuri mxardaWera, maT Soris, Siga baz-ris dacva da proteqcionistuli politikis gatareba, soflad

infrastruqturis ganviTareba, SromiTi resursebis adgilze

damagreba, soflis meurneobis industrializaciis donis amaR-leba, ekologiurad sufTa produqciis mwarmoebelTa waxali-

seba, TevzWerisa da satyeo meurneobis ganviTareba (da ara tye-

ebis gaCexva da ucxoelebze gasxviseba), Sesabamisi kadrebis mo-mzadeba da a.S. amas TviT erovnuli tradiciebic gvkarnaxobs.

soflsoflsoflsoflis meurneobis ganviTaris meurneobis ganviTaris meurneobis ganviTaris meurneobis ganviTareba qveynis ekonomikuri ganvieba qveynis ekonomikuri ganvieba qveynis ekonomikuri ganvieba qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTaTaTaTarererere----

bis erTbis erTbis erTbis erT----erTi prioriteti unda gaxdes, magram ara generaluri erTi prioriteti unda gaxdes, magram ara generaluri erTi prioriteti unda gaxdes, magram ara generaluri erTi prioriteti unda gaxdes, magram ara generaluri strategia.strategia.strategia.strategia. agrarulma seqtorma unda SeZlos Siga sawarmoo

da samomxmareblo moTxovnis garkveulwilad dakmayofileba,

amas TviT qveynis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani ekonomikuri strate-

giis _ turizmis ganviTarebac∗ gvkarnaxobs.

∗ rasac savsebiT veTanxmebiT da ris Sesaxebac msjeloba ara erT-xel gvqonda sxvadasxva publikaciebsa Tu sajaro gamosvlebSi. ix.

26

saqarTvelom aucilebelia sworad gaaanalizos msofli-

oSi mimdinare ekonomikuri procesebi, gansakuTrebuli yura-

dReba miaqcios konkurentunarianobis moTxovnebs, SeigrZnos msoflio ekonomikis ganviTarebis pulsi.

XXI saukune, konkurentuli upiratesobis misaRwevad,

msoflios sTavazobs ekonomikuri ganviTarebis axal models, romelSic `pirveli violinos~ rols inteleqtualuri kapi-

tali asrulebs. saqarTvelom aucileblad unda Seqmnas axali

inovaciuri sistema, vinaidan konkurenciaSi warmatebas aRweven isini, vinc qmnian bazars, e.i. vinc bazars sTavazoben inovaci-

ebs. dRes msoflioSi popularulia Semdegi mowodeba: `dRevan-

deli inovaciebiT moaZveleT Tqveni guSindeli produqcia~. es Teza metad sagulisxmoa teritoriulad iseTi mcire sididis,

magram jer kidev didi potencialis mqone qveynisTvis, rogo-

ric saqarTveloa. amrigad, gloglogloglobabababalilililizazazazacia Tacia Tacia Tacia Tavivivivisi arsi arsi arsi arsiT unisiT unisiT unisiT univerververversasasasalulululuria. ria. ria. ria.

amiamiamiamitom, mitom, mitom, mitom, misi massi massi massi masStaStaStaStabebebebebibibibisa da funsa da funsa da funsa da funqciqciqciqcieeeebibibibidan dan dan dan gagagagamommommommomdidididinanananare, re, re, re,

mniSmniSmniSmniSvnevnevnevnelolololovavavavania ramnia ramnia ramnia ramdedededenad marnad marnad marnad marTuTuTuTuli iqli iqli iqli iqneneneneba es mraba es mraba es mraba es mravalvalvalvalwaxwaxwaxwaxnanananagogogogo----vavavavani da wini da wini da wini da winanananaaRaRaRaRmdemdemdemdegogogogobebebebebiT savbiT savbiT savbiT savse fese fese fese fenonononomemememeni.ni.ni.ni. winaaRmdeg Sem-

TxvevaSi globalizacias didi zianis motana SeuZlia kaco-

briobisaTvis. aqedan gamomdinare, Tanamedrove msoflio ganviTarebis

erT-erTi mTavari amocanaa globaluri da lokaluri proce-

sebis urTierTSexameba da integracia. amisTvis ki aucilebe-lia konfrontaciuli ganviTarebidan (`saCvenebeli TiTis~

principi) kompromisul ganviTarebaze (`cera TiTis~ princi-

pi) gadasvla, Sromis saerTaSoriso danawilebaSi erovnuli Taviseburebebis gaTvaliswineba, sabazro da arasabazro ur-

TierTobebisa da institutebis Tanafardobis optimizacia da

a.S. gansakuTrebul yuradRebas ipyrobs mdgramdgramdgramdgradi da usafdi da usafdi da usafdi da usafrrrr----Txo ganTxo ganTxo ganTxo ganviviviviTaTaTaTarerererebis strabis strabis strabis stratetetetegigigigiis Seis Seis Seis SemumumumuSaSaSaSaveveveveba calba calba calba calkekekekeuuuuli reli reli reli regigigigioooonenenene----

bibibibisa da qveysa da qveysa da qveysa da qveynenenenebibibibisaTsaTsaTsaTvis. vis. vis. vis.

r. asaTiani.r. asaTiani.r. asaTiani.r. asaTiani. `patara qveyanas didi Secdomebis ufleba ara aqvs~. Tb., `siaxle~, 2005.

27

globalizaciis negatiuri Sedegebiglobalizaciis negatiuri Sedegebiglobalizaciis negatiuri Sedegebiglobalizaciis negatiuri Sedegebi

globalizaciis Zlieri tendenciebi dRes gardauvalia,

romelsac, bevr pozitiurTan erTad, axlavs sakmaod gamokve-Tili nenenenegagagagatitititiuuuuri Seri Seri Seri Sededededegegegegebi.bi.bi.bi. igi, garkveuli TvalsazrisiT, sa-

frTxes uqmnis mcire qveynebsa da erebs, uaryofiT gavlenas

axdens lokalur kulturebze. gargargargarTuTuTuTulelelelebubububulia mcilia mcilia mcilia mcire, ganre, ganre, ganre, gansasasasakuTkuTkuTkuTrerererebiT susbiT susbiT susbiT sustad gantad gantad gantad ganviviviviTaTaTaTarererere----

bul qveybul qveybul qveybul qveynebnebnebnebSi ekoSi ekoSi ekoSi ekononononomimimimikis markis markis markis marTvis daTvis daTvis daTvis damomomomouuuukikikikidedededebebebebeli strali strali strali stratetetetegigigigiis is is is

ganganganganxorxorxorxorcicicicieeeeleleleleba.ba.ba.ba. saxelmwifoebi, gansakuTrebiT damoukideblobis gzaze axladdamdgari qveynebi, naklebad avtonomiuria. maT sul

ufro naklebi eqskluziuri kontroli aqvT sakuTar terito-

riaze mimdinare socialur-ekonomikur procesebze (aqedan gamomdinare, SezRudulia maTi ekonomikuri suvereniteti),

amasTan, erovnuli Taviseburebebisa da tradiciebis SenarCune-

bis naklebi unari SeswevT. mcire qveynebis erovnuli kultura sul ufro eqceva winaaRmdegobaSi msoflio procesebTan. ami-

tomacaa, rom dRes mcire, gansakuTrebiT tranzitul qveynebs

globaluri sistemis municipalitetebad aRiqvamen23, maSin ro-desac wamyvan ganviTarebul qveynebs dominanturi pozicia uka-

viaT axali msoflios wesrigis gansazRvris saqmeSi. aRniSnul

tendenciaze, romelmac ukve kanonzomieri xasiaTi miiRo, gav-lenas axdens msoflio ekonomikis institucionalizaciis pro-

cesi. saerTaSoriso doneze marTuli politikuri gadawyveti-

lebebis mniSvnelovani nawili kontroldeba saerTaSoriso or-ganizaciebis mier msoflios saagentoebs, savaWro blokebsa da

mTavar saxelmwifoebs Soris dadebuli xelSekrulebebiT.

Tanamedrove pirobebSi bazrebis gaxsniloba mniSvnelov-nad aris damokidebuli aSS-is ekonomikur politikaze. aSS-s

msoflioSi Tanabari siZlieris konkurentebi ara hyavs. arc

evrokavSirsa da arc iaponias ar SeuZliaT am rolis Sesru-leba. dRes mcire qveynebis ekonomikuri politika msoflio

23 Ohmae K . The rise of the region State. Foreign Affaiars, Spring,1993, pp. 78-87.

28

bazrebis Zalebma daCrdila. mas aRar SeuZlia ekonomikur da

socialur Sedegebze gansakuTrebuli gavlenis moxdena.24

mcire qveynebis ekonomikuri politika sul ufro da ufro `grildeba~. amitom erovnuli ekonomikebis efeqtiani

marTvis funqciebi mkveTrad ecema. investiciebi da finansuri

nakadebi ganviTarebul qveynebSia koncentrirebuli. ganviTa-rebadi samyaro (miTumetes msoflio finansuri krizisis pi-

robebSi) investiciebis did naklebobas ganicdis.

konkurenciis Teoriis cnobili mkvlevris mmmmaiklaiklaiklaikl porporporportttt----eeeerrrriiiissss azriT, `qveynis konkurentunarianoba iqmneba ara gare,

aramed Siga bazrebze.~25 swored Siga bazrebis ganuviTareb-

lobis gamo, postsabWour sivrceSi, maT Soris saqarTvelo-Si ferxdeba sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvla da, faqtobrivad,

yalibdeba saukuniswinandeli kapitalisturi ekonomikuri

urTierTobebi, romlisganac Tavis daRweva SeZlo mxolod civilizebulma samyarom da dRes igi ganviTarebuli qveyne-

bisTvis istoriis kuTvnilebaa.

globalizaciis erT-erTi Tanmxlevi gamokveTili tende-nciaa msoflio masStabiT gakotrebuli, gadaxdisuunaro fi-

rmebis zombireba anu neknekneknekrorororoeeeekokokokononononomimimimikis zomkis zomkis zomkis zombibibibirerererebabababa26, romelic

gansakuTrebiT negatiurad aisaxeba postkomunistur qveynebze, Tumca, am safrTxisgan arc ganviTarebuli qveynebia daculi.

24 herherherhersti p., tomsti p., tomsti p., tomsti p., tompsopsopsopsoni b. ni b. ni b. ni b. globalizacia. kritikuli analizi. Targ-mani inglisuridan. Tb., `diogene~, 2005, gv. 303. 25 Портер М. Конкуренция. Перевод с английского. Санкт-Петербург, Москва, Киев. "Вильямс", 2000, с. 218. 26 Папава В. Проблема зомбирования посткоммунистической некро-экономики. "Вестник Института Кенмана в Россий". Выпуск 15. М., 2009, с. 17; Папава В. Некроэкономика – феномен посткоммунис-тического переходного периода. «Общество и экономика», 2001, №5; Papava V. Necroeconomics: The Political Economy of Post-Communist Capitalism. NewYork, “iUniverse”, 2005; Папава В., Токмазишвили М. Фундамент некроэкономики и развитие деловой активности в постре-волюционной Грузии. «Кавказ & Глобализация», 2007, Т.1(4); http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/how-zombie companies-suck-the-life-from-an-economy-14089.aspx (Sepek J. Nov 18, 2008).

29

metic, raoden gasakviric ar unda iyos, zombiekonomikis fe-

nomeni gasuli saukunis 90-iani wlebidan saTaves iRebs ia-

poniaSi.27 amrigad, mesame aTaswleulis dasawyisSi globalizaciis

procesi mkveTrad diferencirebulia, xasiaTdeba Sinagani wina-

aRmdegobebiT, romlebic upiratesad Tavs iCenen ganviTarebad qveynebSi. amerikeli avtoris jon perkinsisjon perkinsisjon perkinsisjon perkinsis sityvebs Tu mo-

viSveliebT, globaluri imperiis qolgis qveS moqceuli `me-

same samyaros~ qveynebis sagareo valma, 2004 wlis monaceme-biT, 2,5 trilion dolars gadaaWarba, xolo am valis momsa-

xurebis wliurma Rirebulebam 375 mlrd dolars miaRwia. es

imaze metia, rasac xarjaven es qveynebi jandacvasa da gana-Tlebaze da 20-jer meti _ rasac TviTon yovelwliurad iRe-

ben ekonomikuri daxmarebis saxiT.28

globaluri procesebi, bunebrivia, ar SeiZleba ganviTa-rdes erTi romelime modeliT – amerikuliT an evropuliT,

iaponuriT Tu CinuriT. globalizacias axasiaTebs zogadi

kanonzomierebebi, romlebic qveynis marTvis Taviseburebebi-dan gamomdinare, ara mxolod sxvadasxva regionSi, aramed

calkeul qveynebSic ki specifikurobiT xasiaTdeba. am mxriv, am mxriv, am mxriv, am mxriv,

arc saarc saarc saarc saqarqarqarqarTveTveTveTvelllloa gaoa gaoa gaoa gamomomomonaknaknaknaklilililisi, rosi, rosi, rosi, romemememelic mralic mralic mralic mravavavavali rTuli rTuli rTuli rTuli li li li probprobprobproblelelelemis wimis wimis wimis winanananaSe dgSe dgSe dgSe dgas, magas, magas, magas, magram Tram Tram Tram Taaaavivivivisi orisi orisi orisi origigigiginanananalolololobiT mibiT mibiT mibiT miipipipipyro yro yro yro

msofmsofmsofmsoflilililios yuos yuos yuos yuradradradradReReReReba.ba.ba.ba.

saqarTvelo globalizaciis konteqstSisaqarTvelo globalizaciis konteqstSisaqarTvelo globalizaciis konteqstSisaqarTvelo globalizaciis konteqstSi

kvazisocialisturi sistemis ngrevis Sedegad, sxva po-

stsabWour qveynebTan erTad, saqarTvelo globalizaciis

msoflio procesis Tanamonawile gaxda da axali amocanebi

27 papava vpapava vpapava vpapava v. globaluri finansuri krizisi da nekroekonomikis zom-birebis safrTxe. `Sromebi~. VIII tomi. saqarTvelos ekonomikur mecnierebaTa akademia. Tb., gamomcemloba `siaxle~, 2010, gv. 34. 28 Перкинс Д. Исповедь экономического убийцы. 4-е издание. Перевод с английского. М., "Претекст", 2007, с. 29-30.

30

daisaxa Tavis ganviTarebaSi.

is garemoeba, rom saqarTvelo satranzito qveyanaa da

Tavisi geopolitikuri mdebareobiT warmoadgens xids dasav-leTisa da centraluri aziis qveynebs Soris, did pasuxism-

geblobas aniWebs mas daikavos sakuTari geoekonomikuri

strategiis adekvaturi adgili msoflio civilizaciis pro-cesSi. am TvalsazrisiT, gadaidga kidec garkveuli pozitiu-

ri nabijebi. amis dasturia Tundac is, rom ganxorcielda

evropa-kavkasia-aziis satransporto derefnis programa, sa-fuZveli Caeyara transkavkasiuri navTobsadenis – `baqo-Tbi-

lisi-jeihanisa~ da – `baqo-Tbilisi-arzrumis~ gazsadenis am-

oqmedebas, `bisekis~ proeqtis (Savi zRvis auzis qveynebis ek-onomikuri TanamSromloba) ganxorcielebas, Tanamedrove àb-

reSumis gzis~ – yarsi-axalqalaqi-Tbilisi-baqos sarkinigzo

magistralis mSeneblobasa da a.S. es proeqtebi mniSvnelovn-ad Seuwyobs xels saxelmwifoTaSoriso urTierTobebis gaR-

rmavebasa da gare samyarosTan saqarTvelos ekonomikuri da

kulturuli TanamSromlobis gafarToebas. saqarTvelo jer kidev 1994 wels SeuerTda programas

`partnioroba mSvidobisaTvis~ da natosTan ganaxorciela Ta-

namSromlobis programebi, rac bolo dros kidev ufro gan-mtkicda. saerTaSoriso integraciis es procesi globaliza-

ciis moTxovnaa da msoflio tendenciis gamoZaxilic.

miuxedavad amisa, qveyanaSi Seqmnili situaciidan gamom-dinare, aqtualuria Semdegi kiTxvebi: ramdenad upasuxebs sa-

qarTveloSi arsebuli socialur-ekonomikuri mdgomareoba

globalizaciis gamowvevas? aris Tu ara qveyana mzad aiTvisos globalizaciis pozitiuri Sedegebi da swrafad moaxdinos

ekonomikis modernizacia, ise rogorc es gaakeTa bevrma qveya-

nam, maT Soris àziurma vefxvebma~, romlebsac mxolod 10-15 weli dasWirdaT, rom daeZliaT ekonomikuri CamorCeniloba

da axalindustriuli qveynebis statusi mieRoT?

miuxedavad pozitiuri Zvrebisa, saqarTvelo, jer kidev rTuli socialur-ekonomikuri da politikuri problemebis

winaSe dgas. upirveles yovlisa, ver moxerxda transforma-

31

ciuli procesebis eTikis normebSi warmarTva, ekonomikuri

interesebis Sejereba, wonasworobis damyareba sazogadoebriv

urTierTobebSi da socialuri solidarobis miRweva, Seiara-Rebuli konfliqtebis Tavidan acileba, sazogadoebrivi seq-

toris ganviTareba da a.S.

saqarTveloSi damoukideblobis mopovebidan dRemde 19 weli gavida da am xnis manZilze sabazro ekonomikaze gardama-

vali periodic ki ar dasrulebula. kvazidemokratia aferxebs

ekonomikur ganviTarebasa da sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlas. saqarTvelom isic ki ver SeZlo, rom mTliani Siga pro-

duqtis warmoebis 1990 wlis donisTvis mieRwia. msoflio

bankisa da ssf-is eqspertuli SefasebiT, saqarTvelos ekono-mikuri ganviTarebis saministros statistikis departamentis

monacemebiT, 2008 wels saqarTveloSi realurma mTlianma

Siga produqtma (mTliani Siga produqtis deflatoris _ fa-sebis jaWvuri indeqsis meTodiT) Seadgina 1990 wlis donis

71,1%, maSin rodesac es barieri daZlia azerbaijanma

(192,8%), somxeTma (171,6%), latviam (140,9%), estoneTma (172,7%), litvam (129,7%), TurqmeneTma (218,1%), uzbekeTma

(157,3%), yazaxeTma (143,3%), tajikeTma (138,5%), belorusiam

(152,7%), ruseTma (112,3%). ssf-is monacemebiT, miuxedavad imisa, rom gaumjobesda

saqmiani garemo, jer kidev, irRveva kontraqtebi, sustia sa-

samarTlo sistema da Rrma korufciisgan qveyanam Tavi ver daaRwia.29

saTanadod ar aris daculi kerZo sakuTreba, rac seri-

ozul safrTxes uqmnis sabazro urTierTobebis ganviTarebas saqarTveloSi.30 qveynis mosaxleobis mniSvnelovani nawili

izolirebulia saqmiani aqtiurobisagan, miTumetes privatiza-

ciis procesebisagan, rac forsirebuli tempiT mimdinareobs

29 Georgia: Selected Issues//TNF Country Report 06/170. May, 2008, pp. 23-28. 30 Papava V. The Essence of Economic Reforms in Post-Revolution Geor-gia: What about the European Choice? “Georgian International Journal of Science and Technology”. Vol. 1, Issue 1, 2008, pp. 8-9.

32

da ar iTvaliswinebs qveynis Taviseburebebsa da sazogadoebis

moTxovnebs.

privatizacia, miuxedavad daSvebuli uxeSi Secdomebisa, mbrZaneblur-administraciuli mmarTvelobidan saqarTvelos

gamosvlisa da sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlis aTvlis wer-

tilia, qveynisTvis wingadadgmuli nabijia, magram is `velu-ri kapitalizmi~, romelic Camoyalibda saqarTveloSi, swo-

red qveyanaSi gatarebuli privatizaciis SedegebiT iSva, rac

mniSvnelovnad abrkolebs efeqtiani ekonomikis Seqmnas, eko-

nomikur zrdasa da demokratiis ganviTarebas∗.

privatizaciis Sedegia is, rom qveyanaSi ver Camoyali-

bda saSualo fena. inteligencia bedis amarad darCa, masob-

rivi privatizacia (vauCerizacia) ki mxolod dacinva iyo sa-zogadoebis mimarT. aseTi gziT SevZlebT ki socialurad aseTi gziT SevZlebT ki socialurad aseTi gziT SevZlebT ki socialurad aseTi gziT SevZlebT ki socialurad

orientirebuli sabaorientirebuli sabaorientirebuli sabaorientirebuli sabazro ekonomikis Seqmnas saqarTveloSi?zro ekonomikis Seqmnas saqarTveloSi?zro ekonomikis Seqmnas saqarTveloSi?zro ekonomikis Seqmnas saqarTveloSi?

es kiTxvebi metad aqtualuria dRevandeli saqarTvelosTvis. saxelisuflebo wnexis qveSaa oficialuri statisti-

kuri samsaxuri. arajansaRi statistika xelovnurad cvlis

realur suraTs da arTulebs swori daskvnebis gakeTebas. gansakuTrebiT mZime mdgomareobaSi aRmoCnda ganaTlebis

sistema am sferoSi arasworad Catarebuli reformis gamo.

adamianis ganviTarebis indeqsis (romelic 1990 wels pirvelad aisaxa gaeros ganviTarebis programaSi, xolo 1991 wels dae-

mata ganaTlebis miRebis saSualo xangrZlivoba, ris safuZ-velzec Seiqmna codnis maCvenebeli) mixedviT, romelic mer-

yeobs 0-dan 100 qulamde, ranJirebulia 177 qveyana. 80 da uf-

ro maRali qulis mqone qveynebi miCneulia maRalganviTarebu-lad, 50-mde – dabalganviTarebulad. saqarTvelo iyo saSualo-

ganviTarebuli qveynebis jgufSi 72,9 quliT. aRniSnuli maCve-

nebliT igi, marTalia darCa saSualoganviTarebuli qveynebis

∗ sakuTrebis mravalformianobis miuxedavad, sakuTrebis pluralizmi saqarTveloSi ver Camoyalibda. `veluri kapitalizmi~ da demokra-tia sruliad SeuTavsebeli cnebebia, amitom aseT pirobebSi saqarT-velo demokratiuli verasdros gaxdeba.

33

jgufSi, magram gauaresda misi mdgomareoba. 2005 wlis monace-

mebiT, am indikatoris mixedviT saqarTvelom, romelic 2002

wels 81-e adgilze iyo, gadainacvla 96-e adgilze.31 gloglogloglobabababalilililizazazazacia zogcia zogcia zogcia zogjer Cajer Cajer Cajer CamormormormorCeCeCeCenil, susnil, susnil, susnil, sustad gantad gantad gantad ganviviviviTaTaTaTarererere----

bul qveybul qveybul qveybul qveynebs aqnebs aqnebs aqnebs aqcevs upicevs upicevs upicevs upirarararatetetetesad momsad momsad momsad momxmaxmaxmaxmarebrebrebreblad, xSilad, xSilad, xSilad, xSirad darad darad darad dababababa----

li xali xali xali xarisrisrisrisxis da falxis da falxis da falxis da falsisisisifififificicicicirerererebubububuli imli imli imli imporporporportitititirerererebubububuli nali nali nali nawarwarwarwarmis mis mis mis gamgamgamgamsasasasaRebRebRebReblad. es saflad. es saflad. es saflad. es safrTxe arc sarTxe arc sarTxe arc sarTxe arc saqarqarqarqarTveTveTveTvelos aclos aclos aclos acda.da.da.da.

saqarTvelom ver SeZlo eqsportze orientirebuli qve-

yana gamxdariyo. amJamad samomxmareblo bazris 70% import-ul saqonels aqvs dakavebuli. 2008 wlis monacemebiT, saqa-

rTvelos 128 qveyanasTan hqonda savaWro ekonomikuri urTie-

rTobebi. miuxedavad amisa, damoukideblobis mopovebidan dRe-mde man Tavi ver daaRwia uaryofiT sagadasaxdelo balanss.

savaWro balansis uaryofiTma saldom 2008 wels 4 mlrd

dolars miaRwia, xolo amave wels importis eqsportiT gadafarvam mxolod 23,7% Seadgina.32

saqarTveloSi mwvaved dgas dasaqmebis problema. qveya-

naSi dasaqmebulia ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis mxol-od 59%. amasTan, dasaqmebulTa naxevarze meti TviTdasaqme-

bulia, gansakuTrebiT soflis meurneobaSi.

dRes saqarTveloSi umuSevrobis ZiriTadi mizezebi axa-li warmoqmnili ar aris da Sidasistemuria. `moRiavebuli~

qveyana moumzadeblad da gaucnobiereblad CaeSva globali-

zaciis morevSi. mTeli mosaxleobis meoTxedi, _ aqtiuri mosaxleobis mesamedze meti, _ ucxoeTSi wavida saSovarze

gonisa da kunTis, sulisa da xorcis globalur bazarze sa-

vaWrod. vinc ras Soulobs, naxevars aqeT agzavnis. es gamo-gzavnili fuli aZlevs msyidvelobiT Zalas Sinabazars.~33

31 Statistics of the Human Development Raport. 2008; http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics 32 saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli _ 2009. saqarTvelos ekonomikuri ganviTarebis saministros statistikis departamenti. Tb. 2009, gv. 265. 33 globalizaciis problemebi: saerTaSoriso diskusia da qarTuli xedva. `komentari~, 2003, #1 (saredaqcio werili).

34

umuSevarTa rigebis zrdis axali talRa 2008 wlis

agvistos omis Semdeg daiwyo. amis mTavari mizezi araxelsa-

yreli biznesgaremo da am fonze ucxouri kompaniebis mier saqarTveloSi investiciebis Cadebaze uaris Tqma gaxda. amas-

Tan, msoflioSi ganviTarebulma finansurma krizisma, buneb-

rivia, uaryofiTi gavlena moaxdina qveynis ekonomikaze, gan-sakuTrebiT gaamwvava umuSevrobis problema. saqarTvelodan

samuSaod wasuli emigrantebi ukan brundebian, ucxoeTSi

mcxovreb saqarTvelos moqalaqeTa fuladi gzavnilebi mcir-deba, amas emateba 30 aTasamde devnili ruseTis mier axlad-

okupirebuli teritoriebidan, romelmac saqarTvelos teri-

toriis 20% Seadgina. saqarTvelo totaluri umuSevrobis safrTxis winaSe

aRmoCnda. mcirdeba ekonomikuri aqtiuroba, bunebrivia, dasaq-

mebac. eqspertTa SefasebiT, umuSevrobis msxverpli qveynis mosaxleobis minimum 25%-ia.

amrigad, saqarTveloSi mimdinare ekonomikurma refor-

mam gacilebiT meti problema Seqmna, vidre gadawyvita. qve-yana kvlav ekonomikur CixSi moeqca.

2009 wels vaSingtonSi mSvidobis fondma moaxdina 177

qveynis ranJireba Semdegi 12 maCveneblis mixedviT: 1. demogra-fiuli wnexi; 2. ltolvilebi da iZulebiT gadaadgilebulebi;

3. mosaxleobis ukmayofilo jgufebi; 4. qveynidan emigrirebis

done; 5. araTanabari ekonomikuri mdgomareoba socialur jgu-febs Soris; 6. saxelmwifos delegitimacia; 7. ekonomikuri

vardna; 8. saxelmwifo seqtoris funqcionirebis gauareseba;

9. adamianis uflebebis darRveva; 10. uSiSroebis samsaxuris ukontroloba; 11. mosaxleobis elitaruli jgufebi; 12. sxva

qveynebis Careva. qveynebi dayofilia yvelaze warumatebel (sa-

gangaSo), safrTxilo, zomier da mdgrad jgufebad. yveyveyveyvelalalalaze ze ze ze wawawawarurururumamamamatetetetebebebebeli qveyli qveyli qveyli qveynenenenebisbisbisbis jgufjgufjgufjgufSiSiSiSi pirvel adgilzea somali, xo-

lo saqarTvelo amave jgufis 33-e adgilzea (aRsaniSnavia,

rom postsocialisturi qveynebidan mxolod uzbekeTia Cvenze uares mdgomareobaSi, mas 31-e adgili uWiravs), maSin rodesac

2007 wels mas eWira gacilebiT ukeTesi _ 58-e, xolo 2008

35

wels _ 56-e adgili. yvelaze warmatebuli, mdgradi qveyana,

romelsac bolo _ 177-e adgili uWiravs, aris norvegia.34

aqedan gamomdinare, savsebiT logikurad ismis kiTxva: aris Tu araaris Tu araaris Tu araaris Tu ara sasasasaqarqarqarqarTveTveTveTvelo mzad imilo mzad imilo mzad imilo mzad imisaTsaTsaTsaTvis, rom win aRudvis, rom win aRudvis, rom win aRudvis, rom win aRudges ges ges ges

gloglogloglobabababalilililizazazazaciciciciis neis neis neis negagagagatitititiur tenur tenur tenur tendendendendenciciciciebs,ebs,ebs,ebs, wiwiwiwinanananaaRaRaRaRmdemdemdemdegogogogoba gaba gaba gaba gauuuuwiwiwiwios os os os

mkveTmkveTmkveTmkveTrad garad garad garad gamomomomoxaxaxaxatul kostul kostul kostul kosmomomomopopopopolilililitur glotur glotur glotur globabababalilililizazazazacicicicias, roas, roas, roas, romemememe----lic kolic kolic kolic kopipipipirerererebis, gabis, gabis, gabis, gaTaTaTaTanabnabnabnabrerererebibibibisa da gasa da gasa da gasa da gasasasasaSuSuSuSuaaaalelelelebis gziT bis gziT bis gziT bis gziT anananangrevs grevs grevs grevs

qveyqveyqveyqveynis ekonis ekonis ekonis ekononononomimimimikas, yokas, yokas, yokas, yovevevevelilililive pove pove pove pozizizizititititiurs, rac ki Sequrs, rac ki Sequrs, rac ki Sequrs, rac ki Seqmnimnimnimnila dala dala dala da----

sasasasababababamimimimidan dRemdan dRemdan dRemdan dRemde? aris Tu ara qvede? aris Tu ara qvede? aris Tu ara qvede? aris Tu ara qveyayayayana mzad imina mzad imina mzad imina mzad imisaTsaTsaTsaTvis, rom vis, rom vis, rom vis, rom dadadadaicicicicvas erovvas erovvas erovvas erovnunununuli trali trali trali tradidididicicicicieeeebi, isbi, isbi, isbi, istotototoririririuuuuli da kulli da kulli da kulli da kultutututururururuli li li li

memmemmemmemkvidkvidkvidkvidrererereooooba, reba, reba, reba, relilililigigigigiurururur----znezneznezneobobobobririririvi vi vi vi fafafafaseseseseuuuulolololobebebebebi, ekobi, ekobi, ekobi, ekolololologia gia gia gia

da, rac mTada, rac mTada, rac mTada, rac mTavavavavaria, mkvidria, mkvidria, mkvidria, mkvidri mori mori mori mosaxsaxsaxsaxleleleleooooba?ba?ba?ba? axali ekonomikuri sistemis mSenebloba unda gamxdariyo

saqarTveloSi cxovrebis donis amaRlebisa da samarTlianobis

principebze agebuli sistemis Camoyalibebis safuZveli. samwu-xarod ase ar moxda. saqarTveloSi jer kidev laparakia ara

ekonomikis socialur orientaciaze, aramed adamianis biolo-

giur arsebobasa da eris gadarCenaze. qveynis arasworma marTvam da arsebulma ekonomikurma politikam gamoiwvia ekonomikis

moSla. naklebad iqna gaTvaliswinebuli axali msoflio

wesrigisa da samoqalaqo sazogadoebis mSeneblobis moTxovnebi. saqarTvelo aRmoCnda Tavisebur represiul reJimSi.

civilizaciis miRweuli done axal azrovnebas moiT-

xovs, rac gansakuTrebiT aucilebelia qveynis marTvasa da saxelmwifo regulirebaSi. globalizaciis pirobebSi ekono-

mikis winsvla erovnuli faseulobebis dacvis da TviTmyo-

fadobis SenarCunebis gareSe SeuZlebelia. samwuxarod, dRes saqarTvelo ar aris mzad gamoiyenos potenciuri SesaZleb-

lobebi da win aRudges globalizaciis negatiur tendenci-

ebs, winaaRmdegoba gauwios kosmopolitur globalizacias, romelic qveynis uperspeqtivobis winapirobaa. ucucucucxoxoxoxour mour mour mour mo----

deldeldeldelze ageze ageze ageze agebubububuli ekoli ekoli ekoli ekononononomimimimikukukukuri pori pori pori polilililititititika, garka, garka, garka, garkvekvekvekveululululwiwiwiwilad im lad im lad im lad im

34 www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php2option=com_content&task=view &id =391&Itemid=549; www. List of country by failed states index.

36

dididididi podi podi podi polilililititititikis Sekis Sekis Sekis Semadmadmadmadgegegegeneneneneli nali nali nali nawiwiwiwilia, romlia, romlia, romlia, romlis milis milis milis mizazazazanic ar nic ar nic ar nic ar

aris myaaris myaaris myaaris myari ekori ekori ekori ekononononomimimimikis Seqkis Seqkis Seqkis Seqmnamnamnamna, piriqiT, igi qveynis qronikuli , piriqiT, igi qveynis qronikuli , piriqiT, igi qveynis qronikuli , piriqiT, igi qveynis qronikuli

CamorCenilobis safuZvelia.CamorCenilobis safuZvelia.CamorCenilobis safuZvelia.CamorCenilobis safuZvelia. miuxedavad, mZime politikuri da socialur-ekonomi-

kuri mdgomareobisa, saqarTvelos aqvs potenciali gadaWras

mis winaSe arsebuli rTuli problemebi. upirveles yovli-sa, mTavaria arsebuli SesaZleblobebis gonivrulad gamoye-

neba da is 4,5 mlrd-ze meti dolari, romelic 2010 wlis

CaTvliT Semoedineba saqarTveloSi grantisa da kreditis saxiT, mizanmimarTulad moxmardes qveyanas. saqarTveloSi

prioritetuli unda gaxdes eqsportze orientirebuli wa-

rmoebis xelSewyoba, xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqonlis impo-rtTan SedarebiT, upiratesoba teqnologiur importsa da

lizingis ganviTarebas mieniWos. amasTan, rogorc uwmindesi

da unetaresi ilia II brZanebs: èkonomika ganviTardeba, Tu saqarTvelo Seinaxavs erovnul faseulobebs~.35

imisaTvis, rom saqarTvelom daicvas Tavisi erovnuli

faseulobebi, gamoiyenos da ganaviTaros ekonomikuri Tu inte-leqtualuri potenciali, Cadges civilizebuli qveynebis ri-

gebSi, daicvas erovnul TviTmyofadobaze dafuZnebuli sazo-

gadoebrivi interesebi, bunebrivia, unda gaiTvaliswinos evro-pis ganviTarebuli qveynebis gamocdilebac, èvropis mmarTve-

loba da gamgebloba qveynisa, evropis wesi da rigi~ (ilia ilia ilia ilia

WavWavWavWavWaWaWaWavavavavaZeZeZeZe), magram igi saigi saigi saigi saxelxelxelxelmwimwimwimwifofofofoTa inTa inTa inTa intetetetererereresesesesebis Sebis Sebis Sebis Sejajajajaxexexexebis adbis adbis adbis ad----gigigigili da poli da poli da poli da polilililigogogogoni ki ar unni ki ar unni ki ar unni ki ar unda gaxda gaxda gaxda gaxdes, arades, arades, arades, aramed qveymed qveymed qveymed qveynenenenebis warbis warbis warbis warmomomomo----

madmadmadmadgegegegenelnelnelnelTaTaTaTa SexSexSexSexvedvedvedvedris adris adris adris adgigigigili. am Tvalli. am Tvalli. am Tvalli. am TvalsazsazsazsazririririsiT, man unsiT, man unsiT, man unsiT, man unda dada dada dada daiiii----

kakakakavos is povos is povos is povos is pozizizizicia da Secia da Secia da Secia da Seasasasasrurururulos is funlos is funlos is funlos is funqciqciqciqcieeeebi, rabi, rabi, rabi, rasac Svesac Svesac Svesac Sveiiiicacacaca----ria asria asria asria asrurururulebs Sulebs Sulebs Sulebs Suaaaagul evgul evgul evgul evrorororopapapapaSi.Si.Si.Si. saqarTvelom, romelic evro-

pa-aziis Sesayarze mdebareobs, kavkasiis am regionSi `regionu-

li habis~ funqcia unda Seasrulos. politikuri, ekonomiku-ri, samecniero, kulturuli da a.S. urTierTobebi da Sexved-

35 saqarTvelos kaTolikos-patriarqi ilia II socialur-ekonomik-uri ganviTarebis aqtualuri sakiTxebis Sesaxeb. Tb., `geokeria~, 2004, gv. 294.

37

rebi, regionis samive qveynis (azerbaijani, saqarTvelo, somxe-

Ti) warmomadgenelTa monawileobis SemTxvevaSi (somxeTsa da

azerbaijans Soris konfliqtis gaTvaliswinebiT) praqtiku-lad mxolod saqarTveloSia SesaZlebeli36....

miuxedavad imisa, rom saqarTvelo unikaluri resurse-

bis mflobelia, mdidaria misi ekonomikuri da inteleqtua-luri potenciali, saintereso da mimzidvelia bunebrivi re-

sursebiT, universaluria sasargeblo wiaRiseulisa da sof-

lis meurneobis produqciis mravalferovnebiT, Termuli, mtknari da mineraluri wylebiT, kurortebis simravliTa da

mravalferovnebiT, samkurnalo talaxebiT, karstuli mRvime-

ebiT, kulturis uZveles ZeglTa siuxviTa da eTnografiuli TaviseburebebiT da a.S., Cvens qveyanaSi jer kidev mZime soci-

alur-ekonomikuri mdgomareobaa. arsebuli viTareba erTxel

kidev gvafrTxilebs, rom auauauaucicicicilelelelebebebebelia galia galia galia gaviviviviazazazazroT paroT paroT paroT pasusususuxisxisxisxis----mgebmgebmgebmgeblolololoba saba saba saba saqarqarqarqarTveTveTveTvelos xvalos xvalos xvalos xvalinlinlinlindedededeli dRis mili dRis mili dRis mili dRis mimarT. upirmarT. upirmarT. upirmarT. upirveveveveles les les les

yovyovyovyovlilililisa, ausa, ausa, ausa, aucicicicilelelelebebebebelia galia galia galia gaveveveverkveT, sarkveT, sarkveT, sarkveT, saiT miviT miviT miviT mivdidididivarT, rovarT, rovarT, rovarT, rogor gor gor gor

ekoekoekoekononononomimimimikur siskur siskur siskur sistetetetemas vamas vamas vamas vaSeSeSeSenebT da ronebT da ronebT da ronebT da rogogogogori qveyri qveyri qveyri qveynis aSenis aSenis aSenis aSeneneneneba daba daba daba da----vivivivisasasasaxeT mizxeT mizxeT mizxeT miznad.nad.nad.nad.

ilia Wavilia Wavilia Wavilia WavWaWaWaWavavavavaZeZeZeZe werda: `sami RvTaebrivi saunje dagvrCa

Cven mama-papaTagan: mamuli, ena da sarwmunoeba. Tu amaTac ar upatroneT, ra kacebi viqnebiT, ra pasuxs gavcemT STamomav-

lobas?~37 amaT gareSe Cven `Cven~ ar viqnebiT da maTi mara-

diuli dacva TiToeuli CvenTaganis wmindaTa wminda valia _ dasZenda wminda ilia marTali.

globaluri saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri urTierTobebisa

da integraciis zrdis metad rTul procesebSi saqarTvelom unda SeinarCunos saxelmwifoebrivi damoukidebloba sakuTa-

ri ekonomikis, kulturis, tradiciebis, istoriis ganviTare-

bis safuZvelze, eroeroeroerovnul nivnul nivnul nivnul niaaaadagdagdagdagze aaze aaze aaze aaSeSeSeSenos evnos evnos evnos evrorororopupupupuli cili cili cili civivivivi----lilililizazazazacia.cia.cia.cia.

36 isisisismamamamaiiiilolololovi el., pavi el., pavi el., pavi el., papapapapava v.va v.va v.va v. centraluri kavkasia: geopolitikuri ekonomiis narkvevebi. Tb., `diogene~, 2007, gv. 175. 37 WavWavWavWavWaWaWaWavavavavaZe i. Ze i. Ze i. Ze i. Txz. t. III, gv. 26-27.

38

saqarTvelos instituciuri garemo ukanasknel perio-

damde Zalian hgavda ruseTisas. amJamad situacia Seicvala.

saqarTvelo cdilobs gadavides dasavluri instituciuri mowyobis modelze. instituciuri sivrceebis Seqmna mniSvne-

lovnad uwyobs xels qveynebs Soris ekonomikuri TanamSrom-

lobis gafarToebasa da gaRrmavebas, integraciuli procese-bis ganviTarebas. dRes evrokavSiris bazari yvelaze organi-

zebulia msoflioSi. amitom saqarTvelos instituciuri ga-

remoc (rac wingadadgmuli nabijia) evrokavSirzea orienti-rebuli.

Tanamedrove pirobebSi qveynis instituciuri ganviTareba,

rogorc demokratizaciisa da ekonomikuri saqmianobis wesebis, ekonomikuri wesrigis Camoyalibebis gamoxatuleba, eyrdnoba

ìnìnìnìnstistististitutututuciciciciuuuuri mibri mibri mibri mibmis~ mis~ mis~ mis~ koncefcias da aqcents akeTebs stabi-

luri da qmediTi institutebis modelze. am procesis orien-tirad saqarTvelos xelisuflebam evrokavSiris kanonmdebloba

airCia, rac 1996 wels dafiqsirda partniorobisa da Tanam-

Sromlobis xelSekrulebaSi da sabolood dadasturda 2004 wels evropis samezoblo politikasTan saqarTvelos mierTe-

biT. jer kidev 1997 wlis seqtemberSi saqarTvelos parlamen-

tma miiRo dadgenileba, romlis Tanaxmadac `saqarTvelos par-lamentis mier 1998 wlis pirveli seqtembridan miRebuli yve-

la kanoni da normatiuli aqti unda Seesabamebodes evrokavSi-

ris mier dawesebul standartebsa da wesebs.~ am dadgenilebis amoqmedeba SeiZleba CaiTvalos saqarTvelos sakanonmdeblo sis-

temis evrokavSiris sakanonmdeblo sistemasTan daaxloebis mi-

marTulebiT gadadgmul mniSvnelovan nabijad. dRes saqarTvelos instituciuri ganviTarebis garkveul

CarCoebSi moqcevis procesi axlosaa gergergergerSenSenSenSenkrokrokrokronis konnis konnis konnis konververververgengengengen----

ciciciciis Teis Teis Teis TeooooririririasasasasTanTanTanTan, romelic `CamorCenilobis upiratesobis~ sa-xeliTaa cnobili. `logikuria, iseTma qveyanam, rogoric sa-

qarTveloa, instituciuri ganviTareba nulidan ki ar unda

daiwyos, aramed evrokavSiris gamocdileba gamoiyenos... evro-kavSiri qveynebis erT-erTi yvelaze ganviTarebuli nakrebia

msoflioSi, romelsac maRali ekonomikuri da socialuri

39

mwarmoebluroba axasiaTebs.~38 marTlac, ganviTarebuli qveyne-

bis inovaciebis imitireba, romelic TavisTavad ar iZleva in-

stituciuri reformebis ganxorcielebis saSualebas, xels Seuwyobs saqarTveloSi biznesgaremos gajansaRebas. amasTan,

instituciuri ganviTareba, rogorc ekonomikuri qcevis for-

maluri wesebisa da faruli normebis erToblioba (dug(dug(dug(duglas las las las nornornornorTi)Ti)Ti)Ti), urTulesi procesia, romelsac iseTi specialuri sa-

komunikacio arxebis mobilizeba sWirdeba, rogoric arasamTav-

robo organizaciebia. axalma institutebma unda uzrunvelyos sabazro urTierTobebisa da biznesis ganviTarebisTvis jansaRi

samarTlebrivi da maregulirebeli garemos Seqmna, globali-

zaciis im negatiuri tendenciebis aRmofxvra, romelic gansa-kuTrebul safrTxes uqmnis ekologias.

ganganganganviviviviTaTaTaTarerererebubububuli sali sali sali sabazbazbazbazro ekoro ekoro ekoro ekononononomimimimika ar warka ar warka ar warka ar warmomomomoadadadadgens ekogens ekogens ekogens eko----

nonononomimimimikas wekas wekas wekas wesesesesebis gabis gabis gabis garererereSe. am weSe. am weSe. am weSe. am wesesesesebis dacbis dacbis dacbis dacva auva auva auva aucicicicilelelelebebebebelia yvelia yvelia yvelia yvela la la la im qveyim qveyim qveyim qveynisnisnisnisTvis, roTvis, roTvis, roTvis, romelmelmelmelmac mizmac mizmac mizmac miznad asenad asenad asenad aseTi ekoTi ekoTi ekoTi ekononononomimimimikis Seqkis Seqkis Seqkis Seqmna damna damna damna daiiii----

sasasasaxa. amixa. amixa. amixa. amitom, butom, butom, butom, bunebnebnebnebririririvia, urvia, urvia, urvia, urTuTuTuTulelelelesi amosi amosi amosi amocacacacanenenenebis wibis wibis wibis winanananaSe dgas Se dgas Se dgas Se dgas

dRes sadRes sadRes sadRes saqarqarqarqarTveTveTveTvelo.lo.lo.lo.

ekonomikuri Teoriis roli ekonomikur ekonomikuri Teoriis roli ekonomikur ekonomikuri Teoriis roli ekonomikur ekonomikuri Teoriis roli ekonomikur

politikasa da saqarTvelos ekonomikur politikasa da saqarTvelos ekonomikur politikasa da saqarTvelos ekonomikur politikasa da saqarTvelos ekonomikur

ganviTarebaSiganviTarebaSiganviTarebaSiganviTarebaSi

mamamamainc rainc rainc rainc raSi mdgoSi mdgoSi mdgoSi mdgomamamamarererereobs `keobs `keobs `keobs `keininininziziziziaaaanunununuri reri reri reri revovovovolulululuciciciciis~ kreis~ kreis~ kreis~ kre----

do da ra kavdo da ra kavdo da ra kavdo da ra kavSiSiSiSiri aqvs mas sari aqvs mas sari aqvs mas sari aqvs mas saqarqarqarqarTveTveTveTvelos ekolos ekolos ekolos ekononononomimimimikur gankur gankur gankur ganviviviviTaTaTaTa----rerererebasbasbasbasTan?Tan?Tan?Tan? Cveni msjeloba zogadi, konkretizacias moklebu-

li rom ar iyos, SevecdebiT mokled avxsnaT es procesi.

keinzis Teoria 1929-1933 wlebis msoflio ekonomiku-ri krizisisa da misi Semdgomi periodis depresiis gamoZaxi-

li iyo. igi daupirispirda adam smiTis klasikur-liberalur

Teorias, romelmac kapitalizmis ganviTarebis kvalobaze

38 samsamsamsamsosososoni i. ni i. ni i. ni i. ganviTarebis gzebis Zieba: saqarTvelos amocanebi. `saqarTvelos ekonomikuri tendenciebi~. kvartaluri mimoxilva. GEPLAC. marti, 2006, gv. 89.

40

XXI saukunis 20-iani wlebis bolos amowura Tavisi SesaZ-

leblobebi.

ekonomikis krizisuli procesebis analizisadmi miZRvn-ili keinzis Teoria umTavresad ikvlevda sawarmoTa qronik-

uli dautvirTaobis, masobrivi umuSevrobisa da ekonomikuri

zrdis dabali tempebis gamomwvev mizezebs.39 keinzis azriT, sazogadoebis yvela mniSvnelovani sasicocxlo problemis

gadaWris gza unda moiZebnos ara resursebis miwodebaSi,

aramed moTxovnis gazrdaSi (amitomacaa keinzis Teoria `moT-xovnis Teoriis~ saxelwodebiT cnobili). man pirvelma gani-

xila umuSevroba, rogorc efeqtiani moTxovnis ukmarisobis

Sedegi. ekonomikur mecnierebaSi keinzma pirvelma gamoTqva azri imis Sesaxeb, rom efeqtiani moTxovnis SeqmnisaTvis au-

cilebelia ekonomikis saxelmwifo regulireba, rom saxel-

mwifom unda ikisros makroproporciebis dacva da bazris `Secdomebis~ gamosworeba.

jon meinard keinzis varaudiT, saxelmwifo, socialuri

danaxarjebis gazrdiT an gadasaxadebis SemcirebiT, an orive RonisZiebis SerwymiT, anu makroekonomikur regulirebaSi sa-

biujeto-sagadasaxado regulirebis wina planze wamoweviT

SeZlebda erToblivi moTxovnis amaRlebas da amiT gaafarTo-ebda warmoebas, romelic ekonomikas daubrunebda srul dasaq-

mebas. amaSi mdgomareobda `keinzianuri revoluciis~ mTavari

idea. amasTan, keinzi miuTiTebda ekonomikuri politikis sfe-roSi am rekomendaciebis aucileblobas mxolod krizisis

dros, xolo rodesac ekonomika SeZlebda misgan Tavis daRwe-

vas, maSin mTeli ZaliT amoqmeddeboda sabazro regulirebis tradiciuli meTodebi.

sayuradReboa kekekekeininininzis mulzis mulzis mulzis multtttipipipiplilililikakakakatotototoris Teris Teris Teris Teooooriririria,a,a,a, rome-

lic xsnis urTierTdamokidebulebas dasaqmebis, Semosavlebis matebasa da investiciebis zrdas Soris. mis mixedviT, , , , rac

ufro maRalia samomxmareblo moTxovna, miT ufro didia baz-

39 Кейнс Дж. М. Общая теория занятости, процента и денег. Перевод с английского. М.,"Прогресс", 1978, с. 55.

41

ris tevadoba da, maSasadame, miT meti xelsayreli pirobebi

iqmneba warmoebis, dasaqmebisa da Semosavlebis zrdisaTvis. ke-

inzis azriT, rac ufro maRalia `moxmarebisaken zRvruli mi-drekileba~, miT ufro didia multiplikatoris sidide, miT

ufro izrdeba investiciebi da meti winsvlaa dasaqmebaSi40.

XX saukunis 70-iani wlebis meore naxevramde civili-zebul qveynebSi sabiujeto-sagadasaxado politika, romlis

damaxasiaTebel Tvisebas dabegvris ganakveTis diferencirebu-

li Semcireba warmoadgenda, ekonomikuri ganviTarebis saxel-mwifo stimulirebis mTavari instrumenti iyo. am periodSi

es qveynebi cdilobdnen ise aegoT sagadasaxado politika,

rom waexalisebinaT korporaciebi danazogebis warmoebaSi da-bandebisaTvis, rac, Tavis mxriv, erToblivi investiciebis

zrdas ganapirobebda.

marTalia, liberalurma sagadasaxado politikam, saga-dasaxado tvirTis radikalurma Semsubuqebam moklevadian pe-

riodSi saxelmwifo biujetis Semosavlebis Semcireba gamo-

iwvia, magram misi grZelvadiani Sedegebi sruliad gansxvave-buli iyo. man gazarda biujetSi Senatanebi, ramac gamoiwvia

inflaciis damuxruWeba da deficitis Semcireba. sagadasaxa-

do ganakveTis Semcirebam, saboloo angariSiT, gamoiwvia sa-erTo sagadasaxado Senatanebis ara Sekveca, aramed gadideba.

omis Semdgom wlebSi, vidre 70-iani wlebis Sua xane-

bamde, ganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonomikur politikaSi warma-tebiT gamoiyeneboda sabazro ekonomikis saxelmwifo regu-

lirebis keinzianuri modeli. am modelis realuri gansaxie-

rebaa Sereuli, socialurad orientirebuli sabazro ekono-mikis Seqmna gfr-Si, skandinaviisa da dasavleTis sxva ganvi-

Tarebul qveynebSi. es modeli dainerga aSS-Si 60-iani wle-

bis Sua xanebSi. swored am periodSi amerikaSi gaatares si-RaribesTan brZolis farTomasStabiani RonisZiebebi. magram,

70-iani wlebis meore naxevridan dasavleTis qveynebSi Tavi

40 Кейнс Дж. М. Общая теория занятости, процента и денег. Перевод с английского. М.,"Прогресс", 1978, с. 191.

42

iCina ekonomikaSi saxelmwifos metismeti Carevis uaryofiTma

Sedegebma. `saxelmwifo intervencia~ gamovlinda inflaciuri

procesebis gaZlierebaSi, biujetis deficitis, saxelmwifo valis zrdaSi, saxelmwifo aparatis gabervaSi da, saboloo

angariSiT, saxelmwifo gadasaxadebis rekordul gadidebaSi.

aman gamoiwvia sabazro ekonomikis stimulebis daClungeba da ekonomikuri zrdis Seneleba.

1974-1975 wlebis krizisma naTeli gaxada, rom saxel-

mwifo ar iyo yovlisSemZle ekonomikuri zrdis problemebis gadaWraSi. daiwyo ekonomikuri zrdis keinzianuri modelis

mowinaaRmdegeTa `renesansi~, xelSemwyobi pirobebi Seiqmna

`saxelmwifos minimumis~ klasikuri Teoriis aRorZinebisaT-vis. neoklasikuri Teoriis ideam, romelic ZiriTadad iTva-

liswinebda makroekonomikuri regulirebis meqanizmis Sesus-

tebis safuZvelze bazrisTvis meti Tavisuflebis miniWebasa da erToblivi miwodebis gazrdas (`miwodebis Teoria~), im

periodSi praqtikuli gamoyeneba pova dasavleTis ganviTare-

buli qveynebis ekonomikur politikaSi, Tumca, ver moxerxda keinzianuri Teoriis sruli diskretizacia. saqme isaa, rom

neokonservatuli ekonomikuri politikis gatarebam gamoiw-

via socialuri xarjebis mniSvnelovani Semcireba da serio-zuli problemebi warmoqmna socialuri dacvis sferoSi. ga-

moikveTa ekonomikuri ganviTarebis axali mimarTulebis Seq-

mnis aucilebloba. gasuli saukunis 80-ian wlebSi neoklasikurma mimar-

Tulebam, keinzianelobasTan erTad, safuZveli Cauyara ekono-

mikuri zrdis axal Teorias `ne`ne`ne`neokokokoklalalalasisisisikukukukuri sinri sinri sinri sinTeTeTeTezis~zis~zis~zis~ saxiT. es periodi ekonomikur TeoriaSi am siaxlis mTavari Semoqme-

dis _ pol sapol sapol sapol samumumumuelelelelsosososonisnisnisnis saxelTan aris dakavSirebuli da

sasasasamumumumuelelelelsosososonis eponis eponis eponis epoqisqisqisqis saxelwodebiTaa cnobili. igi iTvalis-winebs òrive xelis strategiis~, anu rogorc keinzianuri,

ise neoklasikuri midgomebis mniSvnelovani elementebis ga-

moyenebas saxelmwifosa da bazris urTierTobaSi. keinzianuri da neoklasikuri Teoriebis sinTezze age-

buli axali ekonomikuri politikis Sedegad aSS-sa da sxva

43

ganviTarebul qveynebSi Semcirda inflacia, umuSevroba da

miRweul iqna myari ekonomikuri zrda.

`miwodebis Teoriisa~ da `moTxovnis Teoriis~ postu-latebis erTdroulad CarTva ekonomikur politikaSi auci-

leblobiT iyo ganpirobebuli. amiT civilizebul qveynebSi

makroekonomikuri regulirebis modelsa da, aqedan gamomdin-are, makroekonomikur politikaSi arsebiTi pozitiuri cvli-

lebebi moxda. dRis wesrigSi dadga ekonomikis struqturu-

li gardaqmna mecnierul-teqnologiuri progresis miRwevaTa gamoyenebis safuZvelze. `neoklasikuri sinTezi~ safuZvlad

daedo aSS-is prezident ronald reiganis politikas, rome-

lsac `reoganomika~ ewoda, xolo did britaneTSi _ tetCe-ris mTavrobis politikas da mas `tetCerizmi~ ewoda.

miuxedavad zemoTqmulisa, ekonomikuri regulirebis ke-

inzianuri meTodebis winaaRmdeg gansakuTrebiT mwvaved gai-laSqra neoklasikuri mimarTulebis erT-erTma yvelaze gav-

lenianma nairsaxeobam _ momomomonenenenetatatatarizrizrizrizmmammammamma da misma mTavarma war-

momadgenelma mmmmilTonilTonilTonilTon fridfridfridfridmenmenmenmenma.ma.ma.ma. am mimdinareobas `frid`frid`frid`fridmemememenis nis nis nis anananantitititikekekekeininininziziziziaaaanur renur renur renur revovovovolulululuciciciciaaaasac~sac~sac~sac~ ki uwodeben dasavleTSi. mo-

netaristebi ekonomikur ganviTarebaSi gadamwyvet mniSvnelo-

bas fulad sferos aniWebdnen da moiTxovdnen ekonomikaSi saxelmwifos Carevis yvela formis mkveTr SezRudvas.

90-iani wlebidan moyolebuli ganviTarebuli qveynebis

da, pirvel rigSi, aSS-is ekonomikur politikaSi `neoklasi-kuri sinTezis~ adgili Tanamedrove monetarizmma daikava. m.

fridmenisa da saerTod, `Cikagos skolis~ Teoriaze morgeb-

uli ekonomikuri politika iTvaliswinebda makroekonomiku-ri regulirebis Sesustebasa da sabazro Zalebis gaZliereb-

as, saxelmwifo socialuri xarjebis Semcirebas socialuri

programebis Sekvecis, socialurad daucveli fenebisaTvis daxmarebebis Semcirebis, xelfasis minimaluri ganakveTebis

`gayinvisa~ da a.S. gziT, profkavSirebis Sesustebasa da a.S.

mmmmilTonilTonilTonilTon fridfridfridfridmemememenis monis monis monis monenenenetatatatarurururuli Teli Teli Teli Teooooririririis nakis nakis nakis naklolololovavavavanenenenebebbebbebbebma ma ma ma TaTaTaTavi iCivi iCivi iCivi iCina bona bona bona bolo pelo pelo pelo peririririododododSi msofSi msofSi msofSi msoflio ekolio ekolio ekolio ekononononomimimimikur pokur pokur pokur polilililititititikakakakaSi. Si. Si. Si.

gloglogloglobabababalulululuri firi firi firi finannannannansusususuri kriri kriri kriri krizizizizisis warsis warsis warsis warmomomomoSoSoSoSobis erTbis erTbis erTbis erT----ererererTi mTaTi mTaTi mTaTi mTavavavavari ri ri ri

44

mimimimizezezezezi swozi swozi swozi swored makred makred makred makrorororoeeeekokokokononononomimimimikukukukuri reri reri reri regugugugulilililirerererebis mkveTr Sezbis mkveTr Sezbis mkveTr Sezbis mkveTr Sez----

RudRudRudRudvavavavasa da, garsa da, garsa da, garsa da, garkvekvekvekveululululwiwiwiwilad, salad, salad, salad, sabibibibiuuuujejejejetotototo----sasasasagagagagadadadadasasasasaxaxaxaxado redo redo redo regugugugulililili----

rerererebis, Sebis, Sebis, Sebis, SeiZiZiZiZleleleleba iTba iTba iTba iTqvas, ukaqvas, ukaqvas, ukaqvas, ukana planna planna planna planze gaze gaze gaze gadawdawdawdaweeeevavavavaSi mdgoSi mdgoSi mdgoSi mdgomamamamarererereobobobobda. da. da. da. amasamasamasamasTan, qveyTan, qveyTan, qveyTan, qveynis funis funis funis fuladladladlad----saksaksaksakrerereredidididito poto poto poto polilililititititikakakakaSi sakSi sakSi sakSi sakrerereredidididito reto reto reto re----

gugugugulilililirerererebis Sebis Sebis Sebis Sesussussussustetetetebam, TviTbam, TviTbam, TviTbam, TviTdidididinenenenebabababaze miSze miSze miSze miSvevevevebam da wibam da wibam da wibam da wina planna planna planna planze ze ze ze

fufufufulis felis felis felis fenonononomemememenis wanis wanis wanis wamomomomowewewewevam gza gavam gza gavam gza gavam gza gauxuxuxuxsna virsna virsna virsna virtutututuaaaalulululur ekor ekor ekor ekononononomimimimi----kas da msofkas da msofkas da msofkas da msoflilililios fios fios fios finannannannansusususuri kriri kriri kriri krizizizizisissississisken ubiZken ubiZken ubiZken ubiZga. amaga. amaga. amaga. amaSi fridSi fridSi fridSi fridmemememe----

nis monis monis monis monenenenetatatatarulrulrulruli i i i popopopolilililititititikkkkis farTomasStabianma da upirobo is farTomasStabianma da upirobo is farTomasStabianma da upirobo is farTomasStabianma da upirobo

gamoyenebamgamoyenebamgamoyenebamgamoyenebam udiudiudiudidedededesi rosi rosi rosi roli Seli Seli Seli Seasasasasrurururula. la. la. la. msoflio finansuri krizisi met-naklebi zomiT aisaxa

nebismier qveyanaSi, rac, pirvel yovlisa, ekonomikuri zrdis

tempebis Semcirebasa da erToblivi moTxovnis dacemaSi gamo-ixata. aseT siaseT siaseT siaseT situtututuaaaaciciciciaaaaSi savSi savSi savSi savsesesesebiT lobiT lobiT lobiT logigigigikukukukurad, wirad, wirad, wirad, wina planna planna planna planze isze isze isze is----

ev keev keev keev keininininziziziziaaaanunununuri Teri Teri Teri Teooooririririis posis posis posis postutututulalalalatebtebtebtebmamamama wawawawamomomomoiiiiwia.wia.wia.wia. es gamoixa-

ta ekonomikaSi saxelmwifos rolis gaaqtiurebaSi, saxel-mwifo socialuri xarjebis gazrdasa da gadasaxadebis Sem-

cirebaSi, biznesis finansur mxardaWerasa da a.S.

sasasasaqarqarqarqarTveTveTveTvelos garlos garlos garlos gardadadadamamamamavavavavali peli peli peli peririririoooodis ekodis ekodis ekodis ekononononomimimimikur pokur pokur pokur polilililititititi----kakakakaSi reformirebis arc erT etapSi reformirebis arc erT etapSi reformirebis arc erT etapSi reformirebis arc erT etapze, samze, samze, samze, samwuwuwuwuxaxaxaxarod, ar iqrod, ar iqrod, ar iqrod, ar iqna gaTna gaTna gaTna gaT----

vavavavalislislisliswiwiwiwinenenenebubububuli msofli msofli msofli msoflilililiooooSi farSi farSi farSi farTod apTod apTod apTod aprorororobibibibirerererebubububuli es mdili es mdili es mdili es mdidadadadari ri ri ri

gagagagamocmocmocmocdidididileleleleba. klaba. klaba. klaba. klasisisisikukukukuri forri forri forri formiT ekomiT ekomiT ekomiT ekononononomimimimikukukukuri zrdis arc erri zrdis arc erri zrdis arc erri zrdis arc erTi Ti Ti Ti momomomodedededeli ar gli ar gli ar gli ar gaaaamomomomouuuuyeyeyeyenenenenebia sabia sabia sabia saqarqarqarqarTveTveTveTvelos.los.los.los. is rekomendaciebi, rom-

lebic safuZvlad daedo qveynis ekonomikur politikas, eko-

nomikis ganviTarebis donisa da erovnuli interesebis ara-adekvaturi iyo. qveyqveyqveyqveynis wanis wanis wanis warurururumamamamatebtebtebteblolololobis mTabis mTabis mTabis mTavavavavari miri miri miri mizezezezezi swozi swozi swozi swo----

red amared amared amared amaSi unSi unSi unSi unda veda veda veda veZiZiZiZioT.oT.oT.oT.

`keinzianuri revoluciidan~ moyolebuli ar arsebobs dRes ganviTarebuli qveyana, romelsac ekonomikis transfor-

maciis processa da krizisul situaciaSi, Tavisi ekonomikuri

politikisTvis safuZvlad ar daedo keinzianuri modeli. maS maS maS maS rarararatom ar iqtom ar iqtom ar iqtom ar iqna igi gana igi gana igi gana igi gamomomomoyeyeyeyenenenenebubububuli sali sali sali saqarqarqarqarTveTveTveTvelos ekolos ekolos ekolos ekononononomimimimikur pokur pokur pokur po----

lilililititititikakakakaSi?Si?Si?Si?

rogorc cnobilia, ekonomikis sistemuri gardaqmnis struqturaSi ganmsazRvreli adgili makroekonomikur stabi-

lizacias uWiravs. makromakromakromakroekonomikuri stabilizaciis Teoriekonomikuri stabilizaciis Teoriekonomikuri stabilizaciis Teoriekonomikuri stabilizaciis Teoriuuuu----

45

li aspeqtebi uSualo kavSirSia saqarTvelos gardamavali li aspeqtebi uSualo kavSirSia saqarTvelos gardamavali li aspeqtebi uSualo kavSirSia saqarTvelos gardamavali li aspeqtebi uSualo kavSirSia saqarTvelos gardamavali

periodis ekonomikaSi warmoqmnil problemebTan.periodis ekonomikaSi warmoqmnil problemebTan.periodis ekonomikaSi warmoqmnil problemebTan.periodis ekonomikaSi warmoqmnil problemebTan. amitom Seve-

cdebiT mokled ganvixiloT isini. makroekonomikuri stabilizaciis gareSe instituciuri,

mikro- da makroekonomikuri gardaqmnebi, rogorc sistemuri

gardaqmnis danarCeni Semadgeneli nawilebi, deformirebul xasiaTs iRebs. marTlac, instituciuri gardaqmnebi (sakuT-

rebis gansaxelmwifoebriveba, axali sakanonmdeblo bazis Seq-

mna, sabazro infrastruqturis Camoyalibeba, resursebis, sa-qonlisa da momsaxurebis bazrebis formireba da sxv.), aseve,

fasebis liberalizacia, ekonomikis demonopolizacia, anti-

monopoliuri regulireba, sagareo-ekonomikuri uTierTobeb-is liberalizacia, Caketili ekonomikidan Ria ekonomikaze

gadasvla da sxv. mniSvnelovanwiladaa damokidebuli qveynis

makroekonomikur stabilizaciaze. makroekonomikuri arasta-bilurobis pirobebSi sabazro infrastruqtris institutebi

aSkara, daufarav spekulaciur orientacias iRebs, fasebis

liberalizacia SeiZleba hiperinflaciaSi gadaizardos da a.S. Tavis mxriv, makroekonomikuri stabilizacia SeuZlebe-

lia instituciuri, mikro- da megaekonomikuri gardaqmnebis

gareSe ganxorcieldes. Caketili ekonomikis pirobebSi, saba-zro urTierTobebisa da Sesabamisi institutebis uqonlobis

gamo, igi direqtiul-centralizebul formas iRebs.

ekonomikuri reformebis warmateba Tu warumatebloba didad aris damokidebuli im modelze, romelic qveyanam sis-

temuri gardaqmnis, ekonomikis reformirebis sawyis etapze

unda airCios. msoflio praqtikam am TvalsazrisiT wina planze `Sok-

uri Terapiisa~ da gradualisturi modelebi wamowia.

`Sokuri Terapia~`Sokuri Terapia~`Sokuri Terapia~`Sokuri Terapia~, pirvel yovlisa, transformaciuli procesebis daCqarebuli tempiT, Sokismomgvreli efeqtiT wa-

rmarTvas gulisxmobs da Semdeg ZiriTad principebs emyareba:

fasebis ganTavisufleba-aSvebas, Tavisufali faswarmoqmnis safuZvelze fasebisa da sagareo vaWrobis swraf liberali-

zacias, sakuTrebis gansaxelmwifoebrivebasa da kerZo sakuT-

46

rebis Camoyalibebas, saxelmwifos ekonomikuri rolis minimi-

zaciasa da a.S. misTvis damaxasiaTebelia radikalizmis uaR-

resad maRali done, rac, zemoaRniSnuli gardaqmnebis para-lelurad, arsebuli ekonomikis demontaJSi, misi sxvadasxva

meTodiT ngrevaSi gamoixateba.

gradualisturi modelisaTvigradualisturi modelisaTvigradualisturi modelisaTvigradualisturi modelisaTvissss niSandoblivia saxelm-wifo institutebis Secvla-ganaxleba ekonomikaSi saxelmwi-

fos rolis mniSvnelovani SenarCunebiT, erovnuli mewarmeo-

bis stimulireba da warmoebis stabilizacia, saxelmwifo monopoliebis arseboba ekonomikis sakvanZo sferoebSi da a.S.

igi Zveli ekonomikuri sistemis elementebis gamoyenebis sa-

fuZvelze TandaTanobiT, evoluciuri gziT gardaqmnas guli-sxmobs. amitom es modeli gradualisturi (evoluciuri)

gzis garda, struqturul-warmoebrivi makrostabilizaciis

saxelwodebiTaa cnobili. igi makroekonomiuri stabilizac-iis sxva modelebisagan radikalurad gansxvavdeba da gaTvli-

lia warmoebrivi potencialis ganviTarebaze, samamulo war-

moebis produqciis konkurentunarianobis amaRlebaze. sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlis aRniSnuli ori mode-

lidan saqarTvelom saqarTvelom saqarTvelom saqarTvelom àrCevani~ `Sokur Terapiaze~ gaakeTa.àrCevani~ `Sokur Terapiaze~ gaakeTa.àrCevani~ `Sokur Terapiaze~ gaakeTa.àrCevani~ `Sokur Terapiaze~ gaakeTa.

`didi afeTqebis~ saxelwodebiT cnobili es modeli `vaSing-tonis konsensusis~ safuZvelze ganxorcielda da igi ara-

optimaluri aRmoCnda saqarTvelosaTvis (ise rogorc am ta-

lRaSi moxvedrili mravali sxva qveynebisTvisac). aRniSnul-ma modelma ver gaamarTla, vinaidan ekonomikis Sokirebas Te-

rapia ar mohyolia. SemTxveviTi araa, rom `Sokuri Terapia~

TviT `postvaSingtonis konsensusmac~ ki uaryofiTad Seafa-sa. sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlis es gza arsabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlis es gza arsabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlis es gza arsabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlis es gza ar iyo gaTvlili iyo gaTvlili iyo gaTvlili iyo gaTvlili

saqarTvelos warmoebrivi potencialis ganviTarebasa da finsaqarTvelos warmoebrivi potencialis ganviTarebasa da finsaqarTvelos warmoebrivi potencialis ganviTarebasa da finsaqarTvelos warmoebrivi potencialis ganviTarebasa da fin----

anananansur stabilizaciaze. mis mizans mxolod fasebis aSveba da sur stabilizaciaze. mis mizans mxolod fasebis aSveba da sur stabilizaciaze. mis mizans mxolod fasebis aSveba da sur stabilizaciaze. mis mizans mxolod fasebis aSveba da vaWvaWvaWvaWrobis liberalizacia warmoadgenda.robis liberalizacia warmoadgenda.robis liberalizacia warmoadgenda.robis liberalizacia warmoadgenda.

rac Seexeba makroekonomikuri stabilizaciis modelebsmakroekonomikuri stabilizaciis modelebsmakroekonomikuri stabilizaciis modelebsmakroekonomikuri stabilizaciis modelebs,

msoflio praqtikaSi cnobilia maTi Semdegi ZiriTadi tipebi: orTodoqsuli, heterodoqsuli da struqturul-warmoeb-

rivi.

47

orTodoqsul modelSiorTodoqsul modelSiorTodoqsul modelSiorTodoqsul modelSi aqcenti keTdeba saxelmwifo

biujetis Semcirebaze saxelmwifo xarjebis (saxelmwifo mma-

rTvelobis, Tavdacvis, socialuri dacvis xarjebis, saxelm-wifo transferebis, subsidiebis da a.S.) Semcirebis gziT.

misTvis damaxasiaTebelia sagadasaxado politikis gamkacreba

(sagadasaxado SeRavaTebis Semcireba, gadasaxadebis gadideba da a.S.), rasac Tan axlavs inflaciuri spiralis winaaRmdeg

mimarTuli fulad-sakredito politikis gamkacrebac. igi ga-

moixateba centraluri bankis mier fulis emisiis SezRud-viT, saprocento ganakveTis amaRlebiT, bankTaSorisi sareze-

rvo normis gadidebiTa da a.S. amitom masze agebuli ekono-

mikuri politika, pirvel yovlisa, iTvaliswinebs fulis miwodebis SezRudvas, risi erTaderTi gzac, fulis emisiis

SezRudvasTan erTad, komerciuli bankebis rezervebis Semci-

rebaa. bankTaSorisi sarezervo normis gadideba avtomaturad amcirebs komerciuli bankebis gankargulebaSi arsebul fu-

lad masas da, Sesabamisad, fulad multiplikators, xolo

saprocento ganakveTis gadideba amcirebs komerciuli banke-bis dainteresebas gazardon TavianTi rezervebi centraluri

bankisgan sesxis aRebis gziT.

makrostabilizaciis orTodoqsuli tipisaTvis damaxas-iaTebelia ekonomikuri stabilizatorebis (e.w. `Ruzis~) ar-

Cevis ori ZiriTadi gza: pirvelpirvelpirvelpirvel SemTxvevaSi aqcenti keTdeba

mimoqcevaSi erovnuli fulis SezRudvaze, e.i. `fulad Ruza-ze~, romelsac safuZvlad monetaruli meTodebi udevs. igi

emyareba mkacr sabiujeto, sagadasaxado, fulad-sakredito

politikas `mcuravi~ gadasacvleli savaluto kursis piro-bebSi, rodesac antiinflaciuri RonisZiebebi dayvanilia erT-

oblivi moTxovnis Semcirebasa da fuladi masis SezRudvaze;

meoremeoremeoremeore SemTxvevaSi aqcenti keTdeba savaluto kursis sta-bilizaciaze fiqsirebuli kursisa da savaluto `derefnis~

dadgenis gziT, e.i. `savaluto Ruzaze~. es RonisZieba xels

uwyobs inflaciuri molodinis Semcirebas, bazris subieqte-bis ekonomikuri qcevis winaswar ganWvretasa da a.S. am Se-

mTxvevaSi gamaxvilebulia yuradReba ucxour valutaze, pir-

48

vel yovlisa, aSS-is dolarze da gadasacvleli savaluto

kursis stabilur SenarCunebaze.

amrigad, makroekonomikuri stabilizaciis orTodoqsu-li modeli, erTi mxriv, monetaruli politikis (`fuladi

Ruza~), xolo, meore mxriv, fiqsirebuli savaluto kursis

(`savaluto Ruza~) gamomxatvelia. susti ekonomikis pirobe-bSi igi warmoSobs iseT mniSvnelovan problemebs, rogori-

caa: dabali sainvesticio da saqmiani aqtiuroba, mecnierul-

teqnikuri potencialis Sesusteba, gadauxdelobis krizisis gaRrmaveba, warmoebis gafarToebis SesaZleblobebis SezRu-

dva, saSinao bazarze samamulo warmoebis produqciis wilis

dacema, sagadasaxado bazis Sekveca da saxelmwifo biujetis saSemosavlo nawilis Semcireba, qveynis ekonomikuri usafrT-

xoebis Sesusteba da a.S

hethethetheterodoqsuli modelierodoqsuli modelierodoqsuli modelierodoqsuli modeli aqcents akeTebs Semosavlebisa da fasebis `gayinvaze~, rac ekonomikur Teoriasa da praqti-

kaSi finansuri stabilizaciis `mesame Ruzis~ saxelwodebi-

Taa cnobili. es modeli, gansakuTrebiT `Sokis~ formiT, iZ-leva swraf antiinflaciur efeqts, magram warmoqmnis nega-

tiur Sedegebsac: xdeba fasismieri impulsebis deformacia,

qreba warmoebis ganviTarebis stimulebi, Cndeba sasaqonlo deficitis warmoqmnis saSiSroeba da a.S. heterodoqsuli mo-

delisTvis niSandoblivia `Sokuri TerapiisTvis~ damaxasia-

Tebeli swrafi finansuri stabilizaciis principis Sexameba fiqsirebuli an droebiT `gayinuli~ fasebis principTan. misi

strategia neoliberaluri da neokeinzianuri Teoriebis Zi-

riTadi postulatebis meqanikuri SeerTebis gamoxatulebaa.41 makrostabilizaciis mesame modeli – struqturulstruqturulstruqturulstruqturul----

warmoebrivi stabilizaciawarmoebrivi stabilizaciawarmoebrivi stabilizaciawarmoebrivi stabilizacia, rogorc gradualisturi varianti,

`Sokisagan~ gansxvavebiT, xorcieldeba TandaTanobiT, evolu-ciurad. misTvis damaxasiaTebelia saxelmwifos ekonomikuri

41 Стиглиц Дж. Многообразнее инструменты, шире цели: движение к пост-Вашингтонскому консенсусу. “Вопросы Экономики”, № 8, 1998, с. 17.

49

rolis gaaqtiureba ara mxolod regulirebis aprobirebuli

meTodebis gamoyenebiT, aramed progresuli struqturuli po-

litikis gatarebiT, saxelmwifos mier ekonomikis sakvanZo sferoebis marTvis SenarCunebiT, warmoebis modernizaciiT,

adgilobriv mwarmoebelTa dacviT, mecnieruli gamokvlevebis

waxalisebiTa da a.S. struqturul-warmoebrivi stabilizacia finansuri stabilizaciis mizniT iTvaliswinebs ara erTobl-

ivi moTxovnis SezRudvas, aramed mis stimulirebas, rogorc

Sinameurneobebis, ise firmebis mimarT. es modeli, ekonomikis konversiis TvalsazrisiT, `Sokuri Terapiis~ antipodia, xo-

lo makrostabilizaciis TvalsazrisiT, orTodoqsuli da he-

terodoqsuli stabilizaciis modelebis antipodi. Tumca igi ar gulisxmobs antiinflaciuri politikisa da finansuri

stabilizaciis yvela moTxovnis ugulebelyofas. struqtur-

ul-warmoebrivi stabilizacia iTvaliswinebs makroekonomiku-ri politikis elementebis subordinaciasa da misi ganxorcie-

lebis wesebis Secvlas. am modelis farglebSi finansuri

stabilizacia iqceva Tanmxleb da warmoebul elementad, xo-lo antiinflaciuri politikis ganxorcielebis wesi princi-

pulad icvleba. makromakromakromakroekonoekonoekonoekonomikuri stabilizaciis am modelSi mikuri stabilizaciis am modelSi mikuri stabilizaciis am modelSi mikuri stabilizaciis am modelSi

garkveulwilad gaerTianebulia rogorc keinzianuri, ise garkveulwilad gaerTianebulia rogorc keinzianuri, ise garkveulwilad gaerTianebulia rogorc keinzianuri, ise garkveulwilad gaerTianebulia rogorc keinzianuri, ise neoklasikuri Teoriebis ZiriTadi postulatebi da igi, Cveni neoklasikuri Teoriebis ZiriTadi postulatebi da igi, Cveni neoklasikuri Teoriebis ZiriTadi postulatebi da igi, Cveni neoklasikuri Teoriebis ZiriTadi postulatebi da igi, Cveni

azriT, amiTac imsaxurebs yuradazriT, amiTac imsaxurebs yuradazriT, amiTac imsaxurebs yuradazriT, amiTac imsaxurebs yuradRebas.Rebas.Rebas.Rebas.

struqturul-warmoebrivi stabilizaciis, gradualizm-is gamoyenebis nimuSad SeiZleba davasaxeloT iaponia, rome-

lmac ukanasknel periodSi aqtiuri mizanmimarTuli politi-

ka gaatara resursuli potencialis ganviTarebisa da ekono-mikis struqturuli gardaqmnebis TvalsazrisiT. aseve, SeiZ-

leba davasaxeloT ungreTi, sadac SemuSavebul iqna `kupas

gegma~, romelSic gradualizmTan erTad `Sokuri Terapiis~ elementebic iqna gaTvaliswinebuli.

gradualizmis TvalsaCino magaliTad Tanamedrove Cine-

Tic gamodgeba, romelmac `rbili daSvebis~ politika airCia da sabazro sawyisebze axorcielebs warmoebriv-ekonomikuri

potencialis mZlavr modernizacias, aqtiuri struqturuli,

50

warmoebrivi da sainvesticio politikiT ganapirobebs warmo-

ebrivi simZlavreebis ganaxlebas, warmoebis danaxarjebis Se-

mcirebisa da produqciis xarisxis amaRlebis safuZvelze sa-mamulo warmoebis produqciis konkurentunarianobis amaRle-

bas, erToblivi miwodebis zrdas, rac, saboloo angariSiT,

antiinflaciur efeqts iwvevs. CineTi paralelurad axorci-elebs erToblivi moTxovnis zrdas, rac erTdroulad so-

cialuri problemebis gadaWris sawindaria. aRsaniSnavia, rom

am qveynis mTlian Siga produqtSi maRalia Siga investicie-bis wili, romelic 40%-s aRwevs.

struqturul-warmoebrivi stabilizaciis programebi iw-

vevs sakredito SezRudvebis Serbilebas, qmnis damatebiTi fu-ladi emisiis SesaZleblobas, rac inflaciis gazrdis saSiS-

roebas warmoqmnis. misi Sekaveba SesaZlebelia inflaciis ko-

ntrolis gaZlierebiT, rac gamoixateba bunebrivi monopoli-ebis produqciaze fasebis kontroliT, unaRdo angariSswo-

rebis formebis ganviTarebiTa da, saerTod, makroekonomikuri

dinamikisadmi mudmivi yuradRebiT. am gziT warmoSobili inf-lacia moklevadiania. igi mxolod sawyis etapze vlindeba,

xolo Semdeg, warmoebis gamococxlebisa da aRmavlobis sa-

fuZvelze, TandaTan qreba. amrigad, amgvari gziT miRweuli finansuri stabiliza-

cia arsebiTad gansxvavdeba liberalur-monetaruli politi-

kis Sedegad miRweulisagan. rac mTavaria, igi iZleva samamigi iZleva samamigi iZleva samamigi iZleva samamu-u-u-u-lo prolo prolo prolo produqduqduqduqciiT bazciiT bazciiT bazciiT bazris gajerebis SesaZleblobasris gajerebis SesaZleblobasris gajerebis SesaZleblobasris gajerebis SesaZleblobas, amasTan,

qveynis ekonomikuri usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofisa da erov-

nuli ekonomikis `sanedleulo danamatad~ gardaqmnis ardaS-vebis garantias.

bunebrivia, ekonomikis stabilizaciis struqturul-war-

moebrivi modelis ganxorcieleba rig winaaRmdegobebs awydeba, maT Soris, aRsaniSnavia, dasaxuli miznis misaRwevad msxvili

finansuri resursebis aucilebloba, molodinis periodis sak-

mao xangrZlivoba, inflaciis SeCerebis riskis maRali alba-Toba, miRebuli gadawyvetilebebis ganxorcielebasTan dakavSi-

rebuli Zlieri biurokratiuli barierebi da a.S.

51

makroekonomikuri stabilizaciis modelebis mokle mi-

moxilva Semdegi daskvnis gakeTebis saSualebas iZleva: saqasaqasaqasaqa----

rTveloSi ekonomikis sistemuri gardaqmnebis (konversiis) rTveloSi ekonomikis sistemuri gardaqmnebis (konversiis) rTveloSi ekonomikis sistemuri gardaqmnebis (konversiis) rTveloSi ekonomikis sistemuri gardaqmnebis (konversiis) makroekonomikuri politika orientirebul iqna makroekonomikuri politika orientirebul iqna makroekonomikuri politika orientirebul iqna makroekonomikuri politika orientirebul iqna orTodoqsorTodoqsorTodoqsorTodoqs----

uli tipis pirvel variantzeuli tipis pirvel variantzeuli tipis pirvel variantzeuli tipis pirvel variantze (`fulad Ruzaze(`fulad Ruzaze(`fulad Ruzaze(`fulad Ruzaze~~~~)))). es aris . es aris . es aris . es aris

liberalurliberalurliberalurliberalur----monemonemonemonetaruli politika, rometaruli politika, rometaruli politika, rometaruli politika, romelic `Zviri fulis~ lic `Zviri fulis~ lic `Zviri fulis~ lic `Zviri fulis~ politikiT gamoixata da, `Sokuri Terapiis~ Semdeg, vapolitikiT gamoixata da, `Sokuri Terapiis~ Semdeg, vapolitikiT gamoixata da, `Sokuri Terapiis~ Semdeg, vapolitikiT gamoixata da, `Sokuri Terapiis~ Semdeg, va----

SingtonSi miRweuli SeTanxmebis safuZvelze qveynis ekonoSingtonSi miRweuli SeTanxmebis safuZvelze qveynis ekonoSingtonSi miRweuli SeTanxmebis safuZvelze qveynis ekonoSingtonSi miRweuli SeTanxmebis safuZvelze qveynis ekonomimimimi----

kur politikaSi aisaxakur politikaSi aisaxakur politikaSi aisaxakur politikaSi aisaxa. rac Seexeba gradualistur models, sabazro ekonosabazro ekonosabazro ekonosabazro ekonomimimimi----

kaze evoluciuri gziT gadasvlis SesaZleblobebi saqarkaze evoluciuri gziT gadasvlis SesaZleblobebi saqarkaze evoluciuri gziT gadasvlis SesaZleblobebi saqarkaze evoluciuri gziT gadasvlis SesaZleblobebi saqar----

Tvelom xelidan gauSva,Tvelom xelidan gauSva,Tvelom xelidan gauSva,Tvelom xelidan gauSva, Tumca amisTvis, garda imisa, rom ar iyo politikuri neba, mizezi mravali iyo. maT Soris aRsani-

Snavia qveyanaSi Seqmnili arastabiluri mdgomareoba, konfli-

qtebi, samoqalaqo Tu teritoriuli mTlianobis SenarCune-bisaTvis omebi da a.S.

makroekonomikuri stabilizaciis orTodoqsuli mode-

li, ise rogorc `Sokuri Terapia~, Tavsmoxveuli iyo da saqarTvelos warumateblobis umTavresi mizezi swored amaSi

unda veZioT.

saqarTveloSi konversiis rangSi ayvanili ekonomikis transformaciuli procesebi, gardaqmnebSi miRweuli Sedege-

bidan gamomdinare, axali tipis gardamavali periodis etape-

bad dayofis SesaZleblobas iZleva. drois es monakveTi spe-cifikuri niSnebiTa da TaviseburebebiT xasiaTdeba da sam

etapad misi dayofis SesaZleblobas iZleva. I etapi moicavs

1991-1995 wlebs, II etapi – 1996-2003 wlebs, xolo III etapi iwyeba 2004 wlidan da grZeldeba dRemde.

IIII etapietapietapietapi `Sokuri Terapiis~ periodia. igi `sabazro ei-

foriis~, saqarTvelos uaxles ekonomikur istoriaSi erT-erTi yvelaze rTuli da mZafri winaaRmdegobebiT aRsavse

wlebia. saqarTvelo (ise rogorc zogierTi sxva postsabWoTa

qveyana), aRmosavleT evropis qveynebisa da ruseTisagan gans-xvavebiT, politikuri damoukideblobis mopovebis Semdeg, sax-

elmwifoebriobis atributebis arqonis gamo, dadga ori ur-

52

Tulesi amocanis winaSe: `Sokuri Terapiis~ ganxorciele-

basTan erTad, paralelurad unda Camoeyalibebina saxelmwifo

institutebi. `Sokuri Terapiis~ klasikuri sqema — `balceroviCis

gegma~ saqarTveloSi brma kopirebis Sedegad ganxorcielda

rogorc rusul `sarkeSi~ am gegmis anarekli.42 sakuTari fulad-sakredito sistemis saxelmwifo institutebisa da

erovnuli valutis ararsebobis gamo, saqarTvelo, jer kidev

samaneTo zonaSi iyo da mimoqcevaSi ukve daSlili sabWoTa kavSiris maneTi da rusuli rubli hqonda, rac xels uSli-

da `Sokuri Terapiis~ srulyofil ganxorcielebas. àseT vi-

TarebaSi `Sokuri Terapiis~ modelis ZiriTadad mxolod fasebis liberalizaciaze dayrdnobiT ganxorcielebuli ara-

srulfasovani modifikacia kraxisTvis iyo ganwiruli.~43

jon keneT gelbreiTisjon keneT gelbreiTisjon keneT gelbreiTisjon keneT gelbreiTis azriT, reforma iwyeba ara axali mTavrobiTa da kanonebiT, aramed Cveni SexedulebebiT eko-

nomikur sistemaze.44 samarTlianoba moiTxovs aRiniSnos, rom

saqarTveloSi sabazro ekonomikaze gardamavali periodis siZ-neleebi dakavSirebuli iyo ara mxolod administraciul-

mbrZanebluri sistemis mZime SedegebTan, ara mxolod fsi-

qologiur stereotipebTan, romlebic damkvidrda sazogadoebis cnobierebaSi, aramed codnis mwvave deficitTanac. man gan-

sakuTrebiT mkveTrad iCina Tavi saxelmwifo struqturebSi.

imdeni arakvalificiuri saxelmwifo moxele, romlebsac warmo-

42 papavapapavapapavapapava vvvv.... postkomunisturi kapitalizmis politikuri ekonomia da saqarTvelos ekonomika. Tb., `pdp~, 2002, gv. 334-335; papavapapavapapavapapava vvvv.... postkomunisturi gardamavali periodis makroekonomika. Tb., `Tbi-lisis universitetis gamomcemloba~, 2005, gv. 32. 43 papava v.papava v.papava v.papava v. postkomunisturi gardamavali periodis makroekonomika. Tb., `Tbilisis universitetis gamomcemloba~, 2005, gv. 38 (aseTive azri aqvs gatarebuli prof. v. papavas v. papavas v. papavas v. papavas Tavis cnobil naSromSi `postkomunisturi kapitalizmis politikuri ekonomia da saqarT-velos ekonomika.~ Tb., `pdp~, 2002, gv. 334. 44 Гэлбрейт Дж. К. Экономические теории и цели общества. Перевод с английского. М., "Прогресс", 1979, с. 270.

53

dgenac ki ar hqondaT sabazro ekonomikaze, ra funqciebs asru-

lebda saqarTvelos xelisuflebaSi? es periodi namdvilad ar

iyo `savarZelSi nebivrobis~ dro! sasaqonlo deficitTan er-Tad, aSkarad igrZnoboda reformistuli suliskveTebiT gamsW-

valul adamianTa deficitic.

sazogadoeba waawyda bevr iseT problemas, romlebic ucxo iyo misTvis, magram kargad cnobili dasavleTis qveyne-

bisaTvis. saqarTvelos ekonomikur mecnierebas Taviseburi da-

Ri daasva msoflio ekonomikuri azrovnebisagan faqtobrivma mowyvetam, rkinis fardis miRma sainformacio vakuumSi yofnam.

ekonomikuri qaosisagan organizebuli ekonomikuri sistemis

Seqmna specialur codnasa da profesionalizms saWiroebda. amitom sabazro ekonomikis Teoriisa da praqtikis swraf da-

uflebaze bevrad iyo damokidebuli qveynis bedi, risTvisac am

periodSi ar arsebobda saTanado pirobebi. codnis im maragiT ki, romelic hqonda sazogadoebas, SeuZlebeli da sarisko

saqme iyo sabazro urTierTobebis rTul labirinTebSi gzis

gakvleva. ekonomikuri reformebis warumatebeli startis erT-

erTi mizezi socialuri da erovnebaTaSorisi urTierTobebis

gamwvavebac iyo. sxvadasxva juris separatizmma, Siga samoqa-laqo da avtonomiebTan teritoriulma konfliqtebma aunaz-

Raurebeli zarali miayena erovnul ekonomikas. arc erT arc erT arc erT arc erT

qveyanas ar dauwyia sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvla ekonomikis qveyanas ar dauwyia sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvla ekonomikis qveyanas ar dauwyia sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvla ekonomikis qveyanas ar dauwyia sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvla ekonomikis iseTi ngrevis pirobebSi, rogorc iseTi ngrevis pirobebSi, rogorc iseTi ngrevis pirobebSi, rogorc iseTi ngrevis pirobebSi, rogorc saqarTveloSi moxda.saqarTveloSi moxda.saqarTveloSi moxda.saqarTveloSi moxda. mar-

to afxazeTis teritoriaze omis Sedegad miyenebuli materi-

aluri zarali 9 mlrd lars aRemateba. amave periodSi sa-megreloSi saomari moqmedebis Sedegad miyenebuli materia-

luri zarali 78 mln lars aRwevs, xolo TbilisSi _ 33

mln lars.45 aRsaniSnavia isic, rom saxelmwifo ar Tmobda sabWour

mentalitetze agebul poziciebs, inarCunebda teqnologiurad

45 saqarTvelos socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis 1996-2000 wlebis indikaturi gegma. Tb., 1996, 41.

54

uperspeqtivo sawarmoebsa da Tanamedrove moTxovnebis sapi-

rispiro warmoebis struqturas, riTac, SeiZleba iTqvas, akon-

servebda ekonomikas. aseT situaciaSi hipertrofirebuli mono-polizmisa da deficitis daZlevis problema mTeli sigrZe-

siganiT dadga. magram amisaTvis arc politikuri neba iyo da

arc qveynis Taviseburebebis gaTvaliswinebaze agebuli erTiani strategiuli programa, romelTa ararseboba kidev ufro ar-

Tulebda jansaRi sabazro urTierTobebis formirebas. arada,

administraciuli gziT sabazro urTierTobebis elementebis SemoReba ar niSnavda bazarze gadasvlas. produproduproduproduqciis ukidurqciis ukidurqciis ukidurqciis ukidure-e-e-e-

si deficitis pirobebSi fasebis liberalisi deficitis pirobebSi fasebis liberalisi deficitis pirobebSi fasebis liberalisi deficitis pirobebSi fasebis liberalizacia ekonomikis zacia ekonomikis zacia ekonomikis zacia ekonomikis

administraciuladministraciuladministraciuladministraciul----mbrZambrZambrZambrZanebluri marTvis ukidures formad monebluri marTvis ukidures formad monebluri marTvis ukidures formad monebluri marTvis ukidures formad mog-g-g-g-vevlina. vevlina. vevlina. vevlina. igi mZime tvirTad daawva sazogadoebas. ai rogor Sea-

fasa es movlena amerikelma profesorma a. ivanovma: `sabazro

ekonomikisaken gzis gakvleva sasaqonlo faris deficitis pi-robebSi TviTmkvlelobaa... es igivea, avadmyofs gaukeTo gulis

operacia anesTeziis gareSe. igi xom tkivilebisgan SokSi Ca-

vardeba da saoperacio magidaze daiRupeba.~46 saqarTveloSi, marTalia, radikaluri reforma faswarmo-

qmnaSi 1992 wlis 1 Tebervlidan ganxorcielda, magram Tavi-

sufali fasebi zogierTi saxeobis saqonelze pirvelad Semo-Rebul iqna 1991 wlis gazafxulze. Tu 1991 wels samom-

xmareblo fasebis indeqsi 180%-s Seadgenda, 1992 wels es

maCvenebeli 25-jer, 1993 wels – 92-jer, xolo 1994 wels _ 120-jer gaizarda. mniSvnelovnad gadidda regulirebadi samo-

mxmareblo fasebic. 1992 wels, 1991 welTan SedarebiT, igi

68-jer gaizarda, maSin rodesac mosaxleobis fuladi Semo-savlebi mxolod 3,4-jer gadidda.47

niSandoblivia, rom fasebis aSvebas ar mohyolia Sesabami-

si sabazro qceva – warmoebisa da, aqedan gamomdinare, miwo-debis gazrda, piriqiT, am procesma ukuproporciuli gavlena

46 "Аргументы и факты," № 23, 1991. 47 saqarTvelos socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis 1996-2000 wlebis indikaturi gegma. Tb., 1996, 15.

55

moaxdina masze. bazris gareSe sabazro instrumentebis daman-

grevelma moqmedebam warmoebis mkveTri Semcireba gamoiwvia,

SeiZleba iTqvas, Cakla warmoeba. Tu 1989 wels warmoebis vardna, wina welTan SedarebiT, 4,8%-s Seadgenda, 1990 wels

man Seadgina 12%, 1991 wels – 20,6, 1992 wels – 44,8, 1993

wels – 25,4, 1994 wels – 11,3%.48 mkveTrad Semcirda mTlia-ni Siga produqtis moculoba. 1995 wels igi 1990 wlis Se-

sabamisi maCveneblis mxolod 27,3% iyo. amrigad, 1990-1995

wlebSi saqarTvelos mTliani Siga produqti 3,6-jer da metad Semcirda. aseT pirobebSi liberaluri fulad-sakredito po-

litikis ganxorcielebam (romelic ar jdeboda klasikur sqe-

maSi) mTeli ekonomikis moSla gamoiwvia. amasTan, gauaresda kriminaluri situacia, rasac ekonomikis Zarcva mohyva.

1993 wlis gazafxulze saqarTveloSi fuladi erTeu-

lis surogatis – kuponis SemoReba sruliad moumzadeblad moxda da iZulebiTi nabijic iyo, vinaidan qveyana darCa fu-

ladi erTeulis gareSe ruseTidan rusuli fulis banknote-

bis mouwodeblobis gamo. es susti, Seuqcevadi da Caketili mimoqcevis saSualeba imTaviTve, faqtobrivad, amovardnili

iyo ekonomikidan. did mtkicebas ar saWiroebs am dros sa-

qarTveloSi arsebuli naklebwarmoebis krizisis siRrme: wa-rmoebis tempebis swrafi dacema, sasaqonlo deficitis mkve-

Tri gamwvaveba da fuladi masis dausaqonleba, fasebis

swrafi zrda da inflaciis maRali tempi, saxelmwifo regu-lirebis sisuste, fuladi mimoqcevis ukontroloba, sabiu-

jeto deficitis swrafi gadideba, iatakqveSa mevaxSeobis

farTod gaSla, umuSevrobis swrafi zrda, mafiuri klanebis parpaSi, uaRresad dabali donis materialur-teqnikuri baza,

kvalificiuri kadrebis mkveTri deficiti, daTrgunul me-

warmeTa emigracia, centrsa da regionebs Soris urTierTo-bebis gamwvaveba, aRricxvisa da kontrolis, saangariSgebo

disciplinis moSla, kvazisabazro struqturebisa da urTi-

48 asaTiani r.asaTiani r.asaTiani r.asaTiani r. patara qveyanas didi Secdomebis ufleba ara aqvs. Tb., sagamomcemlo firma `siaxle~, 2005, gv. 199.

56

erTobebis Camoyalibeba. kuponi, Seqmnili situaciidan gamom-

dinare, swrafad ufasurdeboda. kuponis zRvarsgadasulma

emisiam qveyana hiperinflaciamde miiyvana. 1993 wlis meore naxevridan inflaciis tempi TveSi 60-70%-s Seadgenda, samo-

mxmareblo fasebis indeqsma 7587,9%-s miaRwia. es iyo samo-

mxmareblo fasebis zrdis piki. 1993 wlis bolos Wenebadi inflaciuri procesebi hiperinflaciaSi gadaizarda.

1993-1994 wlebSi qveyanas damtkicebuli biujeti ar

hqonda. 1994 wlis Semodgomaze 1 aSS dolari oficialurad 2,5 mln kuponi Rirda, xolo gadasacvleli kursi, faqtob-

rivad, 5,4 mln kupons aRwevda. amave wels inflaciis done

7380%-s Seadgenda. mosaxleoba gausaZlis mdgomareobaSi aRmo-Cnda. saSualo xelfasi TveSi 1,5 aSS dolaris, xolo pensia –

10 aSS centis ekvivalenti iyo! paralelurad saxelmwifo bi-

ujetis deficiti izrdeboda, oqros rezervi mcirdeboda, im-portze qveynis Siga moTxovna diddeboda, sagadasaxdelo ba-

lansis struqtura uaresdeboda da a.S. amasTan, safuZveli

Caeyara erovnuli bankis kreditebiT biujetis deficitis da-farvis mavne praqtikas.

garda amisa, saqarTvelos ekonomika paralizebuli aRmoC-

nda im damangreveli zemoqmedebiT, romelic gamoiwvia omma sa-maCablosa da afxazeTSi. qveyanaSi gaCnda devnilTa mTeli armia,

romelic mZime tvirTad daawva ekonomikas. amasTan, swrafad

ganviTarda `Savi bazari~, romelmac faqtobrivad itvirTa mo-saxleobis biologiuri arsebobis problemis gadaWra.

1994 wlis dasawyisSi miRebul iqna makroekonomikuri

stabilizaciisa da sistemuri cvlilebebis antikrizisuli programa. Tvisebrivad axal doneze ganaxlda TanamSromloba

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondTan da msoflio bankTan. didi

iyo maTi finansuri mxardaWera stabilizaciis programebis miRebasa da ganxorcielebaSi. 1994 wlis meore naxevridan

daiwyo mwvave krizisuli procesebis maCvenebelTa zrdis

tempebis Seneleba. 1995 wlidan saqarTvelos ukve hqonda parlamentis mier damtkicebuli biujeti.

1994 wlis bolos erovnulma bankma daiwyo mkacri

57

fulad-sakredito politikis gatareba, ramac SesaZlebeli

gaxada hiperinflaciis moTokva da obieqturi winapirobebi

Seqmna fulis reformis warmatebiT ganxorcielebisaTvis. am periodSi wliuri inflacia 50%-s mcirediT aRemateboda.

cnobili qarTveli mecnieri vladimer vladimer vladimer vladimer papavapapavapapavapapava jer kidev

1989 wels werda: `saqarTvelos ekonomikuri damoukidebloba erovnuli qarTuli valutis gareSe dRes Znelad Tu iqneba

vinmesTvis misaRebi. es ki gamowveulia ara marto emociebiT,

aramed imis realuri gaazrebiTac, rom fuli aris qmediTi saSualeba ekonomikuri damoukideblobis misaRwevad... mimoqce-

vaSi unda gamovides saqarTvelos sakuTari valuta _ Te-

Tri~.49 1995 wlis Semodgomaze SemoRebul iqna erovnuli va-

luta – lari (xolo TeTri daerqva liTonis xurda fuls),

romelic gamocxadda erTaderT sagadamxdelo saSualebad. dolarTan mimarTebaSi misi gadasacvleli kursi iyo 1 aSS

dolari 1,3 larTan. warmoebis dacema, xuTwliani ekono-

mikuri vardna SeCerda. amave wels aRiniSna nulovani zrda – 0,4%-is farglebSi.

1995 wlis bolodan saqarTvelos ekonomikur politi-

kaSi moxda arsebiTi cvlilebebi da sabazro ekonomikaze gadas-vlis `Sokuri~ gza orTodoqsuli modeliT Seicvala. amiT

saqarTveloSi daiwyo ekonomikuri reformebis II II II II etapi.etapi.etapi.etapi. makroe-

konomikuri stabilizaciis es mimarTuleba am periodidan sa-fuZvlad daedo qveynis ekonomikur politikas. am models sao-

crad miesadageba saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi Semdgom ganviTare-

buli socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebi da procesebi. kerZod, daiwyo saxelmwifo biujetis deficitis Semcireba mkacri

fiskaluri politikis gatarebiT, rac gadasaxadebis gadideba-

Si, sagadasaxado SeRavaTebis, saxelmwifo socialuri xarjebis, saxelmwifo transferebis, subsidiebisa da a.S. SemcirebaSi ga-

moixata. mkacr sabiujeto-sagadasaxado politikas mohyva fu-

49 `komunisti~, 24 oqtomberi, 1989; papava v.papava v.papava v.papava v. saqarTvelo sabazro ekonomikis gzaze. Tb., `mecniereba~, 1995, gv. 58, 60.

58

lad-sakredito politikis gamkacrebac, rac `Zviri fulis~

politikaSi aisaxa. misi umTavresi mizani fulis miwodebis

mkveTri SezRudviT inflaciis moTokva da laris kursis sta-bilizacia iyo. gatarebuli organizaciuli da ekonomikuri

zomebis Sedegad daregulirda inflaciuri procesebi. 1996

wels inflaciam 13,5% Seadgina. 1996-1997 wlebSi saqarTveloSi ekonomikuri zrdis

maRali tempi da inflaciis zomieri done dafiqsirda. mTli-

ani Siga produqtis moculoba saSualod 11%-iT gaizarda, magram rigi saSinao da sagareo faqtorebis uaryofiTi moq-

medebis Sedegad 1998 wels, 1997 welTan SedarebiT, mTlia-

ni Siga produqtis zrdis tempi 2,9%-iT daeca. saqarTveloSi sabiujeto krizisi praqtikulad 1998

wlis pirvel naxevarSi daiwyo. `Zviri fulis~ politikam

(moklevadiani efeqtis Semdeg isic Taviseburi Soki aRmoCnda) warmoqmna iseTi mniSvnelovani problemebi, rogoricaa dabali

sainvesticio da saqmiani aqtiuroba, gadauxdelobis krizisis

gaRrmaveba, sagadasaxado bazis Sekveca, qveynis ekonomikuri usafrTxoebis Sesusteba da a.S. yovelive es saxelmwifo bi-

ujetis saSemosavlo nawilis mkveTr SemcirebaSi gamoixata.

saqarTvelo postsabWour qveynebs Soris erT-erT bolo ad-gilze aRmoCnda mTlian Siga produqtSi eqsportis wilis

mixedviT, rac daaxloebiT 3%-s Seadgenda. am periodSi umoq-

medo sawarmoTa ricxvma 80%-s miaRwia. sagulisxmoa is garemoebac, rom rodesac mTavrobam, hipe-

rinflaciis daZlevis Semdeg, SeinarCuna inflaciis daTrgunvis

kursi, saxelmwifo biujetis deficitis dasafaravad aqcenti sagareo valze gaakeTa. sagareo valis gazrdam (misi wili

mTlian Siga produqtSi zRvrul normas _ 60%-s aRemateboda)

saqarTvelos ekonomika mWidrod damokidebuli gaxada msoflio safinanso organizaciebze da, saerTod, msoflio finansuri

bazrebis koniunqturaze, ramac xeli Seuwyo saxelmwifo xar-

jebis araracionaluri struqturis Camoyalibebas. amasTan, sa-gareos daemata qveynis Siga valic, amitom 2003 wlis saxel-

mwifo biujeti, finansTa saministros gancxadebiT, ZiriTadad

59

valebis gastumrebaze iqna agebuli. es iyo sagareo valis mom-

saxureba, agreTve xelfasebisa da pensiebis mimdinare da Zveli

valebis gastumreba. sagulisxmoa, rom am periodSi saqarT-veloSi pensias iRebda daaxloebiT 900 aTasi adamiani.

14-lariani pensiis dasarigeblad wliurad saWiro iyo 151 200

aTasi lari. amas emateboda 55 mln lari devnilTa dasaxma-reblad. sul wliurad 200 mln-ze meti lari iyo saWiro

mxolod am muxliT. garda amisa, am Tanxas emateboda agreTve

sabiujeto organizaciebis xelfasebi da sagareo valis momsax-ureba.

inflaciis daTrgunvas unda Seeqmna pirobebi ekonomikaSi

investirebis gadidebisaTvis, magram man mxolod inflaciis damuxruWebis moklevadiani efeqti mogvca, `xanZris Caqrobis~

efeqti ufro gamoiwvia, vidre ekonomikis ganviTareba. amis

gamo, TandaTan SeuZlebeli gaxda inflaciuri procesebis xa-ngrZlivi droiT Sekaveba.

sayovelTaod aRiarebulia, rom erovnuli valutisa da

fasebis realuri simyare damokidebulia ara mTavrobis mone-tarul manipulaciaze, aramed erovnul warmoebaze. aq, rog-

orc ityvian, komentari zedmetia: ekonomikis konversiis 12-

wliani reformirebis Semdeg, 1990 wels warmoebuli mTlia-ni Siga produqtis naxevarsac ki ver vawarmoebdiT. amasTan,

Tu 1990 wels saqarTvelos erovnuli simdidre 655 mlrd

dolars Seadgenda, 2000 wlisaTvis igi 388 mlrd-mde Sem-cirda, e.i. danakargma 40,8% Seadgina.50

bankebi faqtobrivad izolirebuli aRmoCndnen sainvesti-

cio saqmianobisagan, vinaidan maRali saprocento ganakveTi da dabali erToblivi moTxovna zRudavda mewarmeobas. cxovrebis

normad iqca korufcia, farTod moikida fexi kontrabandam,

romelmac, SeiZleba iTqvas, CixSi moaqcia adgilobrivi war-moeba. kapitalma erovnuli warmoebis nacvlad gezi sazRvarga-

reTisken aiRo. maRali iyo samewarmeo riski, paralizebuli –

unaRdo angariSsworeba. samagierod arnaxul maStabebs miaRwia

50 arCvaZe i.arCvaZe i.arCvaZe i.arCvaZe i. ra ferisaa miliardi? Tb., `merkuri~, 2002, gv. 21.

60

farulma ekonomikam, romelmac 60%-s gadaaWarba, Tumca, zo-

gierT dargSi (magaliTad, jandacvaSi) 75-85%-sac ki miaRwia.

qarTul ekonomikur politikaSi Tavi iCina dagvianebis efeqtma, gaCnda lagi. qveyanam miznobrivad ver gamoiyena is SeRavaTiani

kreditebi da grantebi, romlebic TiTqmis uwyvet nakadad moe-

dineboda saqarTveloSi. es da sxva negatiuri faqtorebi xels uSlida qveynis sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlasa da progress.

ver daver daver daver davavavavasasasasaxexexexelebT qvlebT qvlebT qvlebT qveeeeyayayayanas, ronas, ronas, ronas, romelmelmelmelsac `Zvisac `Zvisac `Zvisac `Zviri furi furi furi fulis~ lis~ lis~ lis~

popopopolilililititititikiT dakiT dakiT dakiT daeReReReRwia Tawia Tawia Tawia Tavi ekovi ekovi ekovi ekononononomimimimikukukukuri kriri kriri kriri krizizizizisissississisgangangangan. Tu ga-viTvaliswinebT ekonomikis dargSi nobelis premiis laurea-

tis duglas norTisduglas norTisduglas norTisduglas norTis azrs, `neoklasikuri Teoria ar aris

misaRebi iaraRi ekonomikuri ganviTarebis swori politikis Sesaqmnelad. neoklasikuri Teoria warmatebulia maSin, ro-

desac laparakia bazris funqcionirebaze da ara imaze, Tu

rogor unda moxdes bazris Seqmna da ganviTareba.~51 saqarTvelos sWirdeboda ara mkacri fulad-sakredito

politika (isic Taviseburi Sokia), aramed iseTi ekonomikuri

politika, romelic endogenuri faqtorebis efeqtiani gamoye-nebiT migvaaxlovebda civilizebul qveynebs. `Zviri fulis~

politikis multiplikaciuri efeqti, rac sabiujeto dafinan-

sebis mTeli sistemis negatiur procesebSi aisaxa, ekonomikis arastabilurobisa da struqturuli deformaciis umTavresi

mizezi gaxda. TandaTan Camoyalibda sabiujeto-sagadasaxado

krizisi, rasac saxelmwifo biujetis deficitis erovnuli bankis kreditiT dafinansebis mavne praqtika, saxelmwifo saga-

dasaxado valdebulebebis ignorireba da biujetis xSiri sek-

vestrireba daemata. am garemoebam dasca erToblivi moTxovna da ukiduresad gaamwvava socialuri problemebi. Camoyalibda

qonebrivad mkveTrad diferencirebuli sazogadoeba. mosax-

leobis 55% siRaribis zRvars miRma aRmoCnda. inflaciasTan brZolis mizniT, erovnuli bankis mone-

taruli politika, ZiriTadad, fulis miwodebasa da kredi-

51 North D. Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge, “Cambridge University Press”, 1990, p. 17.

61

tis moculobaze zemoqmedebiT gamoixata. bankTaSorisi sar-

geblis ganakveTebis aweviT, igi, faqtobrivad, zrdida saban-

ko sesxebze sargeblis ganakveTs, riTac amcirebda qveyanaSi fulis miwodebas. es, marTalia, susti ekonomikuri zrdis

pirobebSic ki anelebs inflaciis tempebs, magram, samagie-

rod, ekonomikis investirebisa da saqmiani aqtiurobis Se-ferxebiT, uaryofiT gavlenas axdens warmoebis ganviTareba-

ze. dabali moTxovnisa da maRali saprocento ganakveTis ga-

mo, saqarTvelos mkvidri mosaxleoba, faqtobrivad, izolir-ebuli aRmoCnda sainvesticio saqmianobisagan. negatiuri fo-

rmiT gamoikveTa sazogadoebriv faseulobaTa gadafaseba, wina

planze dadga kerZo interesebi. igi mkveTrad gaemijna sazo-gadoebrivs, maT Soris warmoiSva konfliqti, ramac kidev

ufro daZaba qveyanaSi arsebuli socialuri foni.

aseT pirobebSi sagrZnoblad gaizarda xelisuflebisadmi undobloba, rac mravali pozitiuri procesis ganviTarebis

erT-erTi mniSvnelovani Semaferxebeli faqtori gaxda, samagie-

rod, gza gaexsna iseT negatiur procesebs, rogoricaa dola-rizaciis masStabebis gafarToeba, eqsportis mkveTri dacema,

sagareo valis mniSvnelovani gadideba, romlis moculobis

zrdam qveynis dakabalebis safrTxe Seqmna da a.S. amrigad, mcdar monetarul postulatebze dayrdnobiT,

saqarTvelo kvlav iluziebis tyveobaSi aRmoCnda.52

saqarTveloSi 2004 wlidan daiwyo radikaluri refo-rmebis III etapi, romelic dRemde grZeldeba. `vardebis re-

volucia~ Sefasda rogorc xalxis konstituciuri uflebis

dacvis gamoxatuleba da igi globalizaciis Taviseburi ga-moZaxilic iyo.

civilizebulma samyarom kvlav moixeda saqarTvelosken.

reformebis gatarebaSi mniSvnelovan daxmarebas iTvaliswinebs evrokavSiris teqnikuri daxmarebis programa, aSS-is saerTa-

52 Асатиани Р. Посткоммунистический переходный период в эконо-мике Грузии. “Кавказ & глобализация”. Том 3 (2-3), “Ca&CC Press”, Швеция, 2009.

62

Soriso ganviTarebis saagentos (USAID) `saqarTvelos biznes-

klimatis reformis~@proeqti, gaeros ganviTarebis programa

(UNDP) da sxv. yuradReba gamaxvilda instituciur gardaqmne-bze, administraciuli da sajaro samsaxuris reformirebaze,

sagadasaxado kodeqsis daxvewasa da gamartivebaze, faruli

ekonomikisa da korufciis farTo masStabebis likvidaciis Ro-nisZiebebze da a.S. gamartivda firmebis registraciis pro-

cedura, 2007 wels miRebul iqna axali sabaJo kodeqsi, rom-

lis mixedviTac sabaJo gadasaxadebis raodenoba Semcirda 16-dan 3-mde da a.S.

miuxedavad rigi pozitiuri nabijebisa, saqarTveloSi

kvlav mwvave socialur-ekonomikuri mdgomareobaa. ukidures-ad dabali moTxovnis pirobebSi mwvavea socialuri strati-

fikacia,∗ Rrmavdeba socialuri polarizacia. niSandoblivia,

∗ sayuradReboa avstrieli ekonomistisa da sociologis maqs maqs maqs maqs veberisveberisveberisveberis Sexeduleba uTanabrobis, siRaribisa da socialuri diferenciaciis Sesaxeb. man SeimuSava socialuri stratifisocialuri stratifisocialuri stratifisocialuri stratifikaciis Teoria, kaciis Teoria, kaciis Teoria, kaciis Teoria, romelic swored sazogadoebis socialuri diferenciaciis problemas ikvl-evs. siRaribe yvelgan aris, Tumca misi gamomwvevi mizezebi da done gansxvavebulia. mTavaria, igi socialurad asatani iyos. saqarTve-loSi siRaribe swrafad izrdeba, realuri Semosavlisa da samuSaos miRebis SesaZleblobebi ki klebulobs.

dRes gansakuTrebul yuradRebas imsaxurebs socialuri difesocialuri difesocialuri difesocialuri diferererere----ncianciancianciaciis modeciis modeciis modeciis modelebis lebis lebis lebis Seswavla. arsebobs Semosavlebis diferenciaciis optimaluri da zRvruli doneebi. aqedan gamomdinare, oTx models gamoyofen: zepolaruls, zomierad polaruls, zomiersa da egalita-ruls (arasabazros). zepolaruli modelisaTvis zepolaruli modelisaTvis zepolaruli modelisaTvis zepolaruli modelisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia ekonomikis dabali done, mosaxleobis umravlesobis ukiduresi siRa-ribe, qonebrivi diferenciis maRali done. aseTi sazogadoebisaTvis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis done ukiduresad decilur jgufebs Soris Seadgens aranakleb 20-30 : 1-Tan. amJamad es modeli damaxa-siaTebelia mxolod ganviTarebadi qveynebisaTvis. zomierad polazomierad polazomierad polazomierad polaruli ruli ruli ruli modeli modeli modeli modeli warmoiSva XX saukunis pirvel naxevarSi da ukavSirdeba socialuri regulirebis elementebis Semotanas sazogadoebis ganvi-TarebaSi. aseTi modelisaTvis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis deciluri koeficienti aris 10-15 : 1-Tan. zomierad polaruli modeli arsebob-da industriul sazogadoebaSi da amJamad igi damaxasiaTebelia ax-alindustriuli qveynebisaTvis. ganviTarebul qveynebSi amJamad arseb-

63

rom msoflio bankis monacemebiT, siRaribis maRali maCveneb-

lebis mqone qveynebis CamonaTvalSi saqarTvelo 24-e adgil-

zea. arsebuli pensia (miuxedavad misi zrdis tendenciisa), saarsebo minimumis 1/3-sac ki ver faravs, xolo minimaluri

xelfasis oficialuri done aSS-is Sesabamisi maCveneblis

mxolod 6,4%-s Seadgens.53 2008 wlis monacemebiT, saqarTveloSi mosaxleobis

erT sulze mTliani Siga produqti saSualo msoflio don-

obs zomieri modeli, zomieri modeli, zomieri modeli, zomieri modeli, romlisTvisac niSandoblivia saerTo keTil-dReobis zrda da konsolidirebuli socialuri diferenciacia. am mo-delis mqone qveynebi erTmaneTisgan gansxvavdebian `socialuri ekono-mikis~ simwifis mixedviT. pirveli aris liberaluri sazogadoebebi, romlebmac miaRwies ekonomikuri zrdis umaRles dones da amitom SeuZliaT gamoyon soliduri saxsrebi Raribebis dasaxmareblad, jan-dacvis dafinansebisa da sxva socialuri miznebisaTvis. aseTi sazoga-doebis yvelaze mkafio ilustracias warmoadgens aSS (agreTve, kana-da). amis sawinaaRmdegod dasavleTevropuli qveynebi, romlebic abso-luturi maCveneblebiT CamorCebian aSS-s, xasiaTdebian `socialuri ekonomikis~ simwifis gacilebiT maRali doniT. maTi socialur-ekono-mikuri da samarTlebrivi institutebi mimarTulia socialuri Tanx-mobis miRwevisa da mosaxleobis saSualo fenis gaZlierebisaken. soc-ialuri diferenciaciis meoTxe modeli _ arasaarasaarasaarasababababazro, egalitazro, egalitazro, egalitazro, egalitaruli ruli ruli ruli modeli modeli modeli modeli arsebobda eqskomunistur qveynebSi, reformamdel CineTSi, xolo amJamad arsebobs kubasa da koreis saxalxo respublikaSi. es modeli aferxebs ekonomikur zrdas, Tumca misTvis damaxasiaTebelia Semosavlebis diferenciaciis metad mimzidveli done _ 4 : 1-Tan.

dRes msoflioSi gabatonebulia socialuri diferenciaciis zo-mieri modeli. maRal ekonomikur zrdasTan erTad, misTvis damaxasia-Tebelma socialurobis gaZlierebis tendenciam kanonzomieri xasiaTi miiRo, Tumca amerikul sabazro ekonomikas ganasxvavebs germanuli (da ara mxolod germanul, igi dasavleT evropis sxva qveynebsac aerTia-nebs) sabazro ekonomikisagan.

am modelebis mokle mimoxilva Semdegi daskvnis gakeTebis saSu-alebas gvaZlevs: saqarTvelosTvis damaxasiasaqarTvelosTvis damaxasiasaqarTvelosTvis damaxasiasaqarTvelosTvis damaxasiaTeTeTeTebelia zepobelia zepobelia zepobelia zepolareli lareli lareli lareli modeli. modeli. modeli. modeli. Zalze maRalia Semosavlebis uTanabrobis, socialuri dife-renciaciis xarisxi. igi ZiriTadi parametrebiT am modelSi Tavsdeba.

53 http://www.bls.gov/data

64

is mxolod 35%-s Seadgenda da 3 aTas dolars aRwevda.54

saqarTveloSi yvelaferi iyideba, maT Soris bunebrivi

resursebic, yovelgvari samomavlo SesaZleblobebis Tu uar-yofiTi gare efeqtebis gauTvaliswineblad, rasac araferi

aqvs saerTo bunebrivi resursebis racionalur gamoyenebasT-

an. privatizacia qveynis xazinis Sevsebis mniSvnelovan wyar-od iqca, inflacia ki STanTqavs mTliani Siga produqtis ga-

rkveul nawils, izrdeba umuSevroba, Ratakdeba mosaxleoba.

Tu 2003 wels mcire biznesis wili qveynis samewarmeo seq-toris mTlian gamoSvebaSi 9,4%-s Seadgenda, 2009 wels

6,6% Seadgina, riTac 6-jer CamorCeba Sesabamis evropul

maCvenebels (40%). saSualo biznesis wili aRniSnul wleb-Si, Sesabamisad, Seadgenda 11,2 da 9,2%-s, SedarebisTvis ev-

rokavSirSi _ 18%-s. samagierod, msxvili biznesis wili

2003-2009 wlebSi 79,4%-dan 84,3%-mde gaizarda da 2-jer aRemateba evrokavSiris Sesabamis maCvenebels (42%).55 saqar-

TveloSi dabalSemosavlian adamianTa raodenobam 2,4 mln-s

miaRwia. qveynidan garbis upiratesad Sromisunarian asakSi myofi samuSao Zala. ukve migrirebulia 1,6 mln saqarTvelos

moqalaqe, aqedan, ucxo qveynis moqalaqeoba aqvs miRebuli 1

mln-s. saqarTvelo gamoirCeva danazogebis Zalze dabali doniT

da am maCveneblis mixedviT ganixileba saharis samxreTiT

mdebare ganviTarebadi qveynebis jgufSi.56 amitom, vinaidan de-pozitebis baza sakmarisi ar iyo erovnuli ekonomikis sesxebiT

uzrunvelyofisaTvis, es arTulebda situacias da am prob-

lemis gadaWris mizniT bankebi axerxebdnen sagareo bazrebidan

54 www.statistics.ge (seqcia èrovnuli angariSebi~); Human Development Report 2007/2008, pp. 277-280. 55 www.statistics.ge (seqcia `samewarmeo sfero~); Eurostat Newsrelease, #47, 8 April, 2008. 56 kordonie k. kordonie k. kordonie k. kordonie k. kerZo danazogebi, makroekonomikuri stabiluroba da finansuri seqtoris ganviTareba saqarTveloSi. `saqarTvelos eko-nomikuri tendenciebi~. kvartaluri mimoxilva. GEPLAC. oqtombe-ri, 2008.

65

sesxebis mozidvas. am kampaniam imdenad masobrivi xasiaTi miiRo,

rom ucxouri investiciebis mozidva gaxda ara qveynis Siga ucxouri investiciebis mozidva gaxda ara qveynis Siga ucxouri investiciebis mozidva gaxda ara qveynis Siga ucxouri investiciebis mozidva gaxda ara qveynis Siga

danazogebis deficdanazogebis deficdanazogebis deficdanazogebis deficitis Sevsebis wyaro, araitis Sevsebis wyaro, araitis Sevsebis wyaro, araitis Sevsebis wyaro, aramed, SeiZleba iTqvas, med, SeiZleba iTqvas, med, SeiZleba iTqvas, med, SeiZleba iTqvas, ekonomikis ganviTarebis mamoZravebel Zalad gadaiqca.ekonomikis ganviTarebis mamoZravebel Zalad gadaiqca.ekonomikis ganviTarebis mamoZravebel Zalad gadaiqca.ekonomikis ganviTarebis mamoZravebel Zalad gadaiqca.

saqarTvelos sabanko sistemas seriozuli problemebi

2008 wlis agvistos movlenebisa da msoflio finansuri kri-zisis dawyebamde gauCnda. Tumca globalurma finansurma kri-

zisma arsebuli bzari kidev ufro gaaRrmava da aSkara gaxada.

SemTxveviT ar iyo, rom qveynis sabanko seqtorma 2008 weli 215 mln laris zaraliT daasrula.

2008 wels saqarTveloSi sabanko sesxebis odenobis

mTlian Siga produqtTan Sefardebis maCvenebeli katastro-fulad dabali iyo da igi 31%-s Seadgenda, maSin rodesac

saSualo evropuli maCvenebeli 200%-is farglebSi meryeobs57.

grZelvadiani kreditebis 20%-ze meti ipoTekurze modioda. mSeneblobis grZelvadiani dakrediteba importis dafinansebas

uwyobda xels da ara warmoebis ganviTarebas. samSeneblo kom-

paniebis sakuTrebaSi an jer mxolod `haerSi~ arsebuli binebis umetesoba kreditiT iyideboda. developerebis umravlesoba

fuls bankebidan sesxulobda. samomxmareblo bazarze sabanko

seqtoris mzardi aqtiuroba maTi mxridan seriozul riskebs ukavSirdeboda, rasac umTavresad mosaxleobis arastabiluri

da dabali Semosavali ganapirobebda. amasTan, maRali iyo bank-

ebis likvidurobis riski. mis gadafarvas bankebi saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebis sakredito xazebis meSveobiT cdi-

lobdnen. 2007 wels maTi moculoba 127%-iT gaizarda, maSin

rodesac depozitebis moculoba _ mxolod 55%-iT. Camoya-libda likvidurobis krizisi, romelic saerTaSoriso organi-

zaciebidan sakredito resursebis Semdgom mozidvas arTulebda.

2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdeg sabanko seqtorSi ga-

57 kordonie k. kordonie k. kordonie k. kordonie k. kerZo danazogebi, makroekonomikuri stabiluroba da

finansuri seqtoris ganviTareba saqarTveloSi. `saqarTvelos eko-

nomikuri tendenciebi~. kvartaluri mimoxilva. GEPLAC. oqtombe-ri, 2008, gv. 62.

66

nTavsebuli arasabanko depozitebis moculoba 3,1 mlrd la-

ridan 2,7 mlrd laramde Semcirda, sabanko produqtebze mo-

Txovna mkveTrad daeca. am periodisTvis kvlav maRali iyo ucxouri valutis wili depozitebis mTlian moculobaSi da

84,8%-s Seadgenda.

saqarTvelos bankebma didi zarali investirebis mxrivac ganicades. erovnuli bankis monacemebiT, 2008 wels, 2007 we-

lTan SedarebiT, mTliani investiciebis moculoba 37%-iT

Semcirda da mxolod 73,6 mln dolari Seadgina58. praqtiku-lad ar muSaobda grZelvadiani dazogvis meqanizmi. depoziti-

dan erT Tvemde depozitebis raodenoba depozitebis mTliani

raodenobis 99%-s Seadgenda. gansakuTrebiT didi Seusabamoba iyo depozitebisa da sesxebis saSualo sidideebs Soris. sa-

Sualo sesxi saSualo depozits TiTqmis samjer aRemateboda.

saqarTvelos sabanko sistemaSi Seqmnil rTul mdgoma-reobas xeli Seuwyo msoflioSi sakmaod aprobirebuli depo-

zitebis dazRvevis institutis ararsebobam. saqarTvelos saqarTvelos saqarTvelos saqarTvelos

ekonomikuri politikis erTekonomikuri politikis erTekonomikuri politikis erTekonomikuri politikis erT----erTerTerTerTiiii mTavarmTavarmTavarmTavariiii mizmizmizmizaaaannnniiii ucxouri ucxouri ucxouri ucxouri investicieinvesticieinvesticieinvesticiebis mozidvaa, maSin rodesac gacilebiT ufro bis mozidvaa, maSin rodesac gacilebiT ufro bis mozidvaa, maSin rodesac gacilebiT ufro bis mozidvaa, maSin rodesac gacilebiT ufro

mniSvnelovani iqneboda mTeli Zalisxmeva mimamniSvnelovani iqneboda mTeli Zalisxmeva mimamniSvnelovani iqneboda mTeli Zalisxmeva mimamniSvnelovani iqneboda mTeli Zalisxmeva mimarrrrTuliyo Tuliyo Tuliyo Tuliyo

qveynis SigniT danazogebisqveynis SigniT danazogebisqveynis SigniT danazogebisqveynis SigniT danazogebis mobimobimobimobilizebis lizebis lizebis lizebis altealtealtealternatiuli rnatiuli rnatiuli rnatiuli saSualebebis warmoqmnaze. saSualebebis warmoqmnaze. saSualebebis warmoqmnaze. saSualebebis warmoqmnaze.

rogorc `Ria sazogadoeba saqarTvelosa~ da èkonomiku-

ri politikis kvlevis centris~ eqspertebi savsebiT samarTli-anad aRniSnaven, ucxouri investiciebi unda ganixilebodes mxo-

lod rogorc qveynis Siga danazogebis deficitis Sevsebis wya-

ro da ara ekonomikuri ganviTarebis mamoZravebeli Zala. aseTma politikam dadebiTTan erTad, gamoavlina uaRresad uaryofiTi

gare efeqti, rac, pirvel yovlisa, gamoixata saqarTvelos Siga

danazogebis deficitSi. amasTan, sabanko sistema, romelic da-mokidebulia kapitalis saerTaSoriso bazrebis dinamikaze, qve-

ynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis Siga moTxovnis uzrunvelsayo-

58 www.mbg.ge/uploads/depositarycorporeshen_qartulad/assets_liabilies_of _commercial_banks_totalgeo.xls

67

fad sakmarisi raodenobis sasesxo kapitals ar flobs. es, bu-

nebrivia, negatiurad aisaxeba ekonomikur saqmianobaze, qveynis

realur seqtorze da, mraval sxva uaryofiT gare efeqtTan erTad, ganapirobebs saqarTvelos saeqsporto potencialis sa-

banko dafinansebis gareSe datovebas59.

araswori ekonomikuri politikis gavleniT saqarTvelos fulad-sakredito sistema ver Camoyalibda iseT mdgrad in-

stitutad, romelic gaarTmevda Tavs qveyanaSi kapitalis qro-

nikul ukmarisobas da, aqedan gamomdinare, ekonomikuri zrdis dabal tempebTan dakavSirebul mwvave problemas. es mosazreba

ar aris mxolod avtoriseuli, aseT daskvnebs adgilobrivi

Tu ucxoeli eqspertebic akeTeben.60 saqarTvelo isev axali ekonomikuri eqsperimentis

msxverpli aRmoCnda. amitomacaa, rom TiTqmis ori aTeuli

welia, rac erovnuli ekonomika `buqsaobs~, sul ufro da ufro iRebs deformaciul formas da qveyana nel-nela kar-

gavs odiTgan uflisgan miniWebul mewarmeobis did unarsa

da gamocdilebas. eris mama ilia Wavilia Wavilia Wavilia WavWaWaWaWavavavavaZeZeZeZe gvaxsenebs: `...aqamomde miviwye-

buls ekonomikurs mxares Cvenis cxovrebisas pirveli adgi-

li unda daeTmos sxva sazrunavTa Soris, rom ekonomikuri cxovrebis moedanze unda veZioT Rone Cvenis gaZlierebisa...~

es Segoneba dResac aqtualuria.

59 saqarTvelos ekonomikuri safrTxeebisa da mTavrobis krizisisgan

dacvis strategiis analizi da rekomendaciebi. angariSi momzadda

koalicia `gamWvirvale finansuri daxmareba saqarTvelos~ fargle-

bSi. Tb., Tebervali, 2009, gv. 12; 60 korkorkorkordodododonie k. nie k. nie k. nie k. kerZo danazogebi, makroekonomikuri stabiluroba da finansuri seqtoris ganviTareba saqarTveloSi. `saqarTvelos eko-nomikuri tendenciebi~. kvartaluri mimoxilva. GEPLAC. oqtombe-ri, 2008, gv. 63-64; saqarTvelos ekonomikuri safrTxeebisa da mTavrobis krizisisgan dacvis strategiis analizi da rekomendaci-ebi. angariSi momzadda koalicia `gamWvirvale finansuri daxmareba saqarTvelos~ farglebSi. Tb., Tebervali, 2009, gv 12.

68

daskvnadaskvnadaskvnadaskvna

amrigad, globalizacia Tanamedrove msoflio ganviTa-

rebis mniSvnelovani tendenciaa, romelmac ukanasknel perio-dSi saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri urTierTobebisa da integra-

ciis gaRrmavebis safuZvelze kanonzomieri xasiaTi miiRo.

igi, Tavisi arsiT, universaluria da, pirvel yovlisa, mso-flios axali wesrigisa da samoqalaqo sazogadoebis Camoya-

libebaSi povebs asaxvas.

ekonomikuri Teoriis genezisma mniSvnelovani roli Se-asrula msoflio ekonomikur ganviTarebaSi, xolo am ukanas-

knelma safuZveli Cauyara globaluri procesebis daCqare-

basa da globalizaciis pozitiuri mimarTulebiT ganviTare-bas. Tumca rogorc obieqturi, ise subieqturi mizezebiT,

globalizaciis rigma negatiurma efeqtebmac iCina Tavi, ra-

mac kiTxvis qveS daayena ekonomikuri Teoriis `meinstrimica~ da TviT globalizaciis epoqaluri movlenac. amasTan, TaTaTaTanananana----

medmedmedmedrorororove msofve msofve msofve msoflilililios fios fios fios finannannannansursursursurma krima krima krima kriziszisziszisma gama gama gama gamomomomoiwiwiwiwvia movia movia movia monenenenetatatatarizrizrizriz----

mis ìnmis ìnmis ìnmis ìnteteteteleqleqleqleqtutututuaaaalulululuri kori kori kori kolaflaflaflafsi~si~si~si~61616161 da TviT aSSda TviT aSSda TviT aSSda TviT aSS----Sic kiTSic kiTSic kiTSic kiTxvis xvis xvis xvis qveS daqveS daqveS daqveS daaaaayeyeyeyena nena nena nena neoooolilililibebebeberarararalulululuri ekori ekori ekori ekononononomimimimikkkkuuuuri pori pori pori polilililititititika.ka.ka.ka.

Tanamedrove ekonomikur mecnierebaSi gabatonebuli ni-

hilisturi Sexeduleba keinzianizmis mimarT, rom keinzianu-ri era (anu is, rom ekonomikuri ganviTarebis aTvlis wert-

ili mosaxleobis moTxovnis, msyidvelobiTi unaris gazrdiT

iwyeba, rasac bazris tevadobis, warmoebis gafarToebisa da umuSevrobis Semcireba mohyveba) dasrulda, gadasinjva moiT-

xova. Tanamedrove globalurma ekonomikurma krizisma aiZula

civilizebuli samyaro, isev Semobrunebuliyo misken. mokmokmokmokled, milTon fridled, milTon fridled, milTon fridled, milTon fridmenmenmenmenma Secma Secma Secma Secvavavavala jon mela jon mela jon mela jon meiiiinard kenard kenard kenard keininininzis zis zis zis

61 krugkrugkrugkrugmamamamani p. ni p. ni p. ni p. rogor moaxerxes ekonomistebma yvelafris araswo-rad gageba. Targmani inglisuridan. `saqarTvelos ekonomika~, 2009, 10, gv. 81.

69

fifififilolololososososofia, am ukafia, am ukafia, am ukafia, am ukanasnasnasnasknelknelknelknelma ki adam smima ki adam smima ki adam smima ki adam smiTis fiTis fiTis fiTis filolololososososofia. dRes fia. dRes fia. dRes fia. dRes

msofmsofmsofmsoflio, lio, lio, lio, axaaxaaxaaxali gloli gloli gloli globabababalulululuri firi firi firi finannannannansusususuri kriri kriri kriri krizizizizisis pisis pisis pisis pirorororobebbebbebbebSi, Si, Si, Si,

milmilmilmilTon fridTon fridTon fridTon fridmemememenis finis finis finis filolololososososofifififiis Secis Secis Secis Secvlis movlis movlis movlis mololololodindindindinSia, romSia, romSia, romSia, romlis lis lis lis konkonkonkontutututurerererebi ukbi ukbi ukbi ukve gave gave gave gamomomomoikikikikveveveveTa da am cvliTa da am cvliTa da am cvliTa da am cvlilelelelebis gabis gabis gabis garererereSe garSe garSe garSe garTulTulTulTul----

dedededeba msofba msofba msofba msoflio filio filio filio finannannannansusususuri kriri kriri kriri krizizizizisisisisidan Tadan Tadan Tadan Tavis daRvis daRvis daRvis daRweweweweva,va,va,va, rorororomelmelmelmelmac mac mac mac

sasasasaTaTaTaTave swove swove swove swored red red red fridfridfridfridmemememenis samnis samnis samnis samSobSobSobSoblolololoSi _ aSSSi _ aSSSi _ aSSSi _ aSS----Si aiSi aiSi aiSi aiRo.Ro.Ro.Ro. globalizaciis procesi mkveTrad diferencirebulia,

xasiaTdeba Sinagani winaaRmdegobebiT, romlebic upiratesad

Tavs iCens tranzitul qveynebSi. am mxriv, arc saqarTveloa gamonaklisi, romelic dRes mravali rTuli problemis win-

aSe dgas.

klasikuri formiT ekonomikuri zrdis arc erTi mode-li ar gamouyenebia saqarTvelos. ekonomikis ganviTarebis don-

isa da erovnuli interesebis araadekvaturi iyo is ucxouri

rekomendaciebi, romlebic safuZvlad daedo qveynis ekonomi-kur politikas. saqarTvelos warumateblobis mTavari mizez-

ic swored amaSi unda veZioT, xolo misi aRmavlobis sawin-

dari gaRatakebuli mkvidri mosaxleobis gadaxdisunarianobis, msyidvelobiTi Zalis amaRlebaSia. amisaTvis ki droa saqarT-

veloSi ekonomikuri politikis mesveurebma gaiTvaliswinon

msoflioSi sakmaod aprobirebuli gamocdileba. miuxedavad imisa, rom qveyanaSi lagis faqtori didi xania (saqarTvelos

sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlis Sesaxeb gadawyvetilebis

miRebidan dRemde) moqmedebs, iqneb mainc SevZloT keinzianuri Teoriis da, aqedan gamomdinare, `keinzianuri revoluciis~

postulatebis CarTva erovnul ekonomikur politikaSi.

`jobs gvian, vinem arasdros~. gaWianurebuli ekonomikuri krizisidan Tavis daRwevis realuri SesaZleblobebic swored

religiur eTikaze agebul am humanur TeoriaSia.

70

globalizacia, ekonomikuri Teoriaglobalizacia, ekonomikuri Teoriaglobalizacia, ekonomikuri Teoriaglobalizacia, ekonomikuri Teoria

da saqarTveloda saqarTveloda saqarTveloda saqarTvelo

rerererefefefeferarararatitititi

msoflioSi mimdinare Rrma sistemuri transformaciu-li procesebi axali gamowvevebis winaSe ayenebs ekonomikur

Teorias da wina planze wamoswevs mis mniSvnelobas kacobri-

obis progresSi. ekonomikuri Teoriis genezisma, mecnierul-teqnikur re-

voluciasTan erTad, safuZveli Cauyara globalizaciis pozi-

tiuri mimarTulebiT ganviTarebas, Tumca, rigma negatiurma efeqtebmac iCina Tavi, ramac kiTxvis qveS daayena ekonomikuri

Teoriis `meinstrimica~ da TviT globalizaciis epoqaluri

movlenac. milTon fridmenis monetaruli Teoriis naklovanebebi

bolo periodSi aisaxa msoflio ekonomikur politikaSi. glo-

baluri finansuri krizisis warmoSobis erT-erTi mTavari mize-zi swored makroekonomikuri regulirebis (kerZod, sabiujeto-

sagadasaxado regulirebis) mkveTr SezRudvaSi mdgomareobs.

amasTan, qveynis fulad-sakredito politikaSi sakredito regu-lirebis Sesustebam, TviTdinebaze miSvebam da wina planze fu-

lis fenomenis wamowevam gza gauxsna virtualur ekonomikas da

msoflios finansuri krizisisken ubiZga. man met-naklebi zomiT nebismier qveyanaSi pova asaxva, rac, pirvel yovlisa, ekonomi-

kuri zrdis tempebis Senelebasa da erToblivi moTxovnis da-

cemaSi gamoixata. monetarizmis ìnteleqtualurma kolafsma~ kiTxvis qveS

daayena neoliberaluri ekonomikuri politika. bolo dros

ekonomikur mecnierebaSi gabatonebuli Sexeduleba imis Sesaxeb, rom keinzianuri era dasrulda, uaryofili iqna. wina planze

isev keinzianuri Teoriis postulatebma wamoiwia. es gamoixata

71

ekonomikaSi saxelmwifos rolis gaaqtiurebaSi, saxelmwifo

socialuri xarjebis gazrdasa da gadasaxadebis SemcirebaSi,

biznesis finansur mxardaWerasa da a.S. dRes msoflio, glo-baluri krizisis pirobebSi, `fridmenis filosofiis~ Secvlis

molodinSia.

saqarTvelos, gardamavali periodis ekonomikur politi-kaSi, klasikuri formiT ekonomikuri zrdis arc erTi modeli

ar gamouyenebia. qveynis warumateblobis mTavari mizezi swored

amaSi unda veZioT. `keinzianuri revoluciidan~ moyolebuli ar arsebobs dRes ganviTarebuli qveyana, romelsac ekonomikis

transformaciis periodsa da krizisul situaciaSi Tavis eko-

nomikur politikaSi ar gaeTvaliswinebina ekonomikuri zrdis keinzianuri modeli. saqarTveloSi ki ar iqna igi gamoyenebuli.

ver davasaxelebT qveyanas, romelsac `Zviri fulis~ politi-

kiT daeRwia Tavi ekonomikuri krizisisgan. saqarTveloSi ekonomikis reformirebis I etapze (1991-

1995 ww.) ekonomikis Sokirebis damangreveli efeqtebis Semdeg,

II etapze (1996-2003 ww.) `Zviri fulis~ politikis multip-likaciuri efeqti ekonomikis arastabilurobisa da struqtu-

ruli deformaciis umTavresi mizezi gaxda. TandaTan Camoya-

libda sabiujeto-sagadasaxado krizisi, rasac saxelmwifo biu-jetis deficitis erovnuli bankis kreditiT dafinansebis mavne

praqtika, saxelmwifo sagadasaxado valdebulebebis ignorireba

da biujetis xSiri sekvestrireba daemata. am garemoebam dasca erToblivi moTxovna da ukiduresad gaamwvava socialuri

problemebi.

inflaciasTan brZolis mizniT, erovnuli bankis moneta-ruli politika, ZiriTadad, fulis miwodebisa da kreditis

moculobaze zemoqmedebiT gamoixata. bankTaSorisi sargeblis

ganakveTebis aweviT, igi, faqtobrivad, zrdida sabanko sesxeb-ze sargeblis ganakveTs, riTac amcirebda qveyanaSi fulis mi-

wodebas. es, marTalia, susti ekonomikuri zrdis pirobebSic

ki anelebs inflaciis tempebs, magram, samagierod, ekonomikis investirebisa da saqmiani aqtiurobis SeferxebiT, uaryofiT

gavlenas axdens warmoebis ganviTarebaze. dabali moTxovnisa

72

da maRali saprocento ganakveTis gamo, saqarTvelos mkvidri

mosaxleoba, faqtobrivad, izolirebuli aRmoCnda sainvesti-

cio saqmianobisagan. amasTan, kapitalma, erovnuli warmoebis amoqmedebis nacvlad, gezi sazRvargareTisken aiRo, vinaidan

adgilobrivi warmoeba ar Seiqmna saimedo da momgebiani maRa-

li samewarmeo riskisa da sxva negatiuri faqtorebis gamo. sakuTrebis mravalformianobis miuxedavad, saqarTvel-

oSi sakuTrebis pluralizmi ver Camoyalibda. `veluri kapi-

talizmi~ da demokratiis ganviTareba sruliad SeuTavsebeli cnebebia, amitom aseT pirobebSi saqarTvelo demokratiuli

verasdros gaxdeba.

araswori ekonomikuri politikis gavleniT, saqarTve-los fulad-sakredito sistema ver Camoyalibda iseT mdgrad

institutad, romelic gaarTmevda Tavs qveyanaSi kapitalis

qronikul ukmarisobas da, aqedan gamomdinare, ekonomikuri zrdis dabal tempebTan dakavSirebul mwvave problemebs.

saqarTvelos erovnuli banki ekonomikis reformirebis

I etapze axorcielebda vaSingtonis konsensusis mier Tavsmo-xveul ìafi fulis~ politikas, II etapze `Zviri fulis~

politikas, xolo III etapze (2004 wlidan) axorcielebs

neoliberalur politikas. arc erTi etapis ekonomikuri po-litika ar ganxorcielebula klasikuri modelis CarCoebSi

da maTSi anarqiulobis elementebi Warbobda. miTumetes ar

iqna gamoyenebuli msoflioSi farTod aprobirebuli keinzia-nuri modeli. amitomacaa, rom saqarTvelom Tavi ver daaRwia

ekonomikur kriziss, mwvave socialur-ekonomikur proble-

mebs da dRemde ver SeZlo sabazro ekonomikaze (romelsac aucileblad axlavs socialuri garantiebi) gadasvla.

73

Rozeta Asatiani Doctor of Economic

Sciences, Professor

GLOBALIZATION, ECONOMIC THEORY AND GEORGIA

Summary

Economic theory has a central role in the world’s economic development and management of the global processes. Economic trends and respective models determine the “rules of game” of the economic policy.

The genesis of the economic theory lay the foundation to the positive development of the globalization. However, due to the ob-jective and subjective reasons, different negative effects has ques-tioned the “mainstream” economic theory and the globalization process itself. The modern financial crisis caused the “intellectual collapse” of the monetarism and cast the doubts on the liberal eco-nomic policy even in USA.

Widespread notion in economic theory that the Keynesian era had finished is about to be revised.

Georgia in transition period did not use any classic model of the economic growth. The recommendation followed by Georgia were not appropriate for the country. This is the main reason for fail-ure of economic reforms. There is no a single country in the world were the economic policy was not based on the Keynesian model of growth.

The main reason for the global financial crisis is in the lack of the macroeconomic regulation, restriction of the government regula-tion of the credit policy and expansion of the virtual economy. The Friedman’s monetary policy has played the biggest role in this.

Today every country has suffered from the global crisis with negative effect on economic growth and aggregate supply rate. Logi-cally the postulates of the Keynesian theory are resurrected. This

74

could be seen in active involvement of government in regulatory ac-tivity, increase of social benefits, decrease of taxes and financial aid to the businesses.

The banking system of Georgia inspire of some achievements in recent years has not established itself as a stable institution, which would be able to cope with the chronic shortage of capital, due to the various internal or external factors. Hence, it turned unable to cope with economic problems of the country. The crack in the banking system was evident before the beginning of the global crisis in 2008 and it has just widened by the global impact. Notably, the 2008 year’s bottom line ended up with GEL 215 mln in aggregate loss.

The long-term loans to the construction industry has mainly promoted the import, not the development of the local industry. 20% of long-term loans was secured by morgages. The liquidity risk of the banks was very high, which was safeguarded by the foreign fi-nancial institutions’ credit lines. In 2007 they increased by 127%, compare to increase in volume of local deposits just by 55%. By the end of 2008 investment activity of the banks has sharply decreased. The situation was aggravated by the absence of the system of deposit insurance.

In this extraordinary situation the commercial banks began changing the strategic planning and risk management for the purpose of elaboration of new strategy.

75

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Papava V. The Essence of Economic Reforms in Post-Revolution Georgia: What abaut the European Choice? "Georgian International Journal of Science and Technology." Vol. 1, Issue 1, 2008;

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Thurow L. The Future of Capitalism. New York, 1996;

[http://www.chelt.ru/2001/12/uzbasbashianz-12.html];

http:P//www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8346.html;

www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php2option=com_content&task=view& id= 391&Itemid=549;

http://www.bls.gov/data/;

http://www.devex.com/articles/zombie-economics;

http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch/;

www.mbg.ge/uploads/depositarycorporeshen_qartulad/assets_liabilies_of _commercial_banks_totalgeo.xls;

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/how-zombie-companies-suck-the-life-from-an-economy-14089.aspx (Sepek J. Nov 18, 2008);

http://www.statistics.ge

83

SinaarsiSinaarsiSinaarsiSinaarsi

redaqtorisaganredaqtorisaganredaqtorisaganredaqtorisagan ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3333

SesavaliSesavaliSesavaliSesavali (ekonomikuri Teoria(ekonomikuri Teoria(ekonomikuri Teoria(ekonomikuri Teoria axali gamowvevebis winaSe)axali gamowvevebis winaSe)axali gamowvevebis winaSe)axali gamowvevebis winaSe) -------------------- 5555

globalizacia drois moTxovna daglobalizacia drois moTxovna daglobalizacia drois moTxovna daglobalizacia drois moTxovna da

msoflio procesis gamoZaxilimsoflio procesis gamoZaxilimsoflio procesis gamoZaxilimsoflio procesis gamoZaxili ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 8888

globalizacia da axali msoflioglobalizacia da axali msoflioglobalizacia da axali msoflioglobalizacia da axali msoflio

wesrigiwesrigiwesrigiwesrigi -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22221111

globalizaciis negatiuri Sedegebiglobalizaciis negatiuri Sedegebiglobalizaciis negatiuri Sedegebiglobalizaciis negatiuri Sedegebi ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22226666

saqarTvelo saqarTvelo saqarTvelo saqarTvelo globalizaciis konteqstSiglobalizaciis konteqstSiglobalizaciis konteqstSiglobalizaciis konteqstSi ---------------------------------------- 22229999

ekonomiekonomiekonomiekonomikuri Teoriis roli ekonomikurkuri Teoriis roli ekonomikurkuri Teoriis roli ekonomikurkuri Teoriis roli ekonomikur

politikasa da saqarTvelos ekonomikurpolitikasa da saqarTvelos ekonomikurpolitikasa da saqarTvelos ekonomikurpolitikasa da saqarTvelos ekonomikur

ganviTarebaSiganviTarebaSiganviTarebaSiganviTarebaSi ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 33339999

daskvnadaskvnadaskvnadaskvna ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 66668888

globalizacia, ekonomikuri Teoriaglobalizacia, ekonomikuri Teoriaglobalizacia, ekonomikuri Teoriaglobalizacia, ekonomikuri Teoria

da saqarTvelo da saqarTvelo da saqarTvelo da saqarTvelo (referati)(referati)(referati)(referati) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 70707070

GLOBALIZATION, ECONOMIC THEORY AND GEORGIA (Abstract) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 77773333

gamoyenebuli da sarekomendacio literaturagamoyenebuli da sarekomendacio literaturagamoyenebuli da sarekomendacio literaturagamoyenebuli da sarekomendacio literatura---------------- 77775555

84

ROZETA ASATIANI

GLOBALIZATION, ECONOMIC THEORY AND GEORGIA

(in Georgian Language)

Publishing house “Siakhle” Tbilisi 2010

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pirobiTipirobiTipirobiTipirobiTi nabeWdinabeWdinabeWdinabeWdi TabaxiTabaxiTabaxiTabaxi 5,005,005,005,00;;;; saaRricxvosaaRricxvosaaRricxvosaaRricxvo----sagamomcemlo Tabaxisagamomcemlo Tabaxisagamomcemlo Tabaxisagamomcemlo Tabaxi 5,5,5,5,50;50;50;50;

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