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Goals & Objectives
Objectives:• Understand probable effects of natural and
anthropogenic hazards• Identify reliability & resilience projects• Understand benefit-cost of projects• Prioritize projects
For Everett’s Water Supply System . . . Goal–Reliable water supply with
resiliency
Components Studied
Natural Hazards AssessedEarthquakesLandslidesFloodsTsunamisVolcanic eruptionsWatershed firesSevere weather (wind, snow, ice)Climate change
Other Significant HazardsLandslides: threats to Spada and Chaplain
reservoirs and damsFloods: potential threats to above ground
transmission lines on Ebey IslandTsunamis: conflicting study results, potential threats
to above ground transmission lines on Ebey IslandVolcanic Eruptions: ash fall hazard, potential threat
to operability of Water Filter Plant
Anthropogenic HazardsThreats from insidersExplosionsFiresSabotageArmed attacksDisruption of IT,
SCADA, or communications systems
ContaminationForced entryCivil disorderCompromise of
personnelAirplane crash in
reservoir
Improvement ProgramsIP-1: enhance emergency planning, enhance
mutual aid, complete additional studies to refine vulnerability assessment and finalize mitigation priorities
IP-2: Upgrades for:Chaplain Reservoir and South Dam, Sultan River
Diversion, Water Filter Plant, Transmission Lines 3 and 5, Reservoir 3, and other items
IP-3: Upgrades for:WFP new flocculation basin, Transmission Lines 2 and
4, Reservoirs 2 & 6
Improvement Programs
IP 1 - Emergency preparedness measures & studies to refine findings
IP 2 - Upgrades to meet goals for maximum earthquake (2,475 return period) events
IP 3 - Fully upgrade system for maximum earthquake (2,475 return period) events
IP 1 IP 2 IP 30
10
20
30
40
50
60
$ (Million)
≈ $1.3
≈ $38.0
≈ $47.7
Damages and LossesMajor Categories:
o Economic impacts on customers from loss of water service: by far the largest category!
o Damage to water system infrastructureMinor/Negligible Categories
o Secondary damages from failures of water system infrastructure
o Deaths and injurieso Water Revenue Loss
Scenario Damages and Losses
Benefit-Cost Results - 1As-Is Water Supply System $10,460,872After Mitigation: IP-1 $5,181,673
Annualized Benefits $5,279,199Present Value Coefficient 25.73Net Present Value of Benefits $135,833,801Cost Estimate: IP-1 $1,318,000Benefit-Cost Ratio 103.06
As-Is Water Supply System $10,460,872After Mitigation: IP-1 and IP-2 $752,383
Annualized Benefits $9,708,489Present Value Coefficient 25.73Net Present Value of Benefits $249,799,430Cost Estimate: IP-1 and IP-2 $39,317,000Benefit-Cost Ratio 6.35
As-Is Water Supply System $10,460,872After Mitigation: IP-1 and IP-2 $203,272
Annualized Benefits $10,257,601Present Value Coefficient 25.73Net Present Value of Benefits $263,928,061Cost Estimate: IP-1 and IP-2 $87,052,000Benefit-Cost Ratio 3.03
IP-1
IP-1 and IP-2
IP-1, IP-2 and IP-3
Average Annual Damages and Losses
Average Annual Damages and Losses
Average Annual Damages and Losses
Benefit-Cost Results - 2
After Mitigation: IP-1 $5,181,673After Mitigation: IP-2 $752,383
Annualized Benefits $4,429,290Present Value Coefficient 25.73Net Present Value of Benefits $113,965,630Cost Estimate: IP-2 Only $37,999,000Benefit-Cost Ratio 3.00
After Mitigation: IP-2 $752,383After Mitigation: IP-3 $203,272
Annualized Benefits $549,111Present Value Coefficient 25.73Net Present Value of Benefits $14,128,631Cost Estimate: IP-3 Only $47,735,000Benefit-Cost Ratio 0.30
Incremental for IP-2 after IP-1Average Annual Damages and Losses
Incremental for IP-3 after IP-2Average Annual Damages and Losses
Overall findings: HazardsEarthquakes have the greatest effect:
oLikely to meet goals for probable eventsoUpgrades needed to meet goals for
maximum events, estimated at ~$40 MMinor effects of other hazards relative to
meeting goals