Gold Pan Fire Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review Bitterroot

Gold Pan Fire Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review Bitterroot National Forest, U.S. Forest Service

National Oversight Review

National Incident Management Organization

4/29/2014

Objective of this Review

The primary objective of these Programmatic/Cost Fire Reviews is to evaluate and document risk management decision processes and actions taken on incidents and their direct or indirect effect on costs. The review and objective analysis provides recommendations to management for incident-specific and programmatic process improvements based on comprehensive analysis of incident documentation.

This allows for improvement of program performance, operations, evaluation of costs, and facilitates the application of focused improvements. In addition, the reviews provide an opportunity to evaluate the clarity of communication of the Chief’s Leader Intent and the effectiveness of implementation in the field.

The results of the reviews provide information crucial to the well-established learning environment and continued improvement in fire management in the U.S. Forest Service.

Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review Bitterroot National Forest U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014

Table of Contents

Table of Contents.............................................................................................................................1Purpose............................................................................................................................................2Background......................................................................................................................................2Objectively look at actions taken by the Incident Management Team and the local Agency Administrator to meet the direction provided by the Forest Service Chief.....................................5Assess the consideration and effectiveness of applying risk management concepts to incident cost through the associated decisions and expenditures as an outcome..........................................6Identify best business practices used on fires this past season........................................................7Identify how social and political issues factored into our decision making....................................8Identify which current procedures can be enhanced or expanded...................................................8Identify improvements that can be made in sharing and clarifying expectations............................9Lessons Learned- Observations and Recommendations...............................................................10Fire Chronology.............................................................................................................................16Gold Pan Cost Appendices............................................................................................................59

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Purpose

On December 20, 2013, James Hubbard, Deputy Chief for State and Private Forestry (SPF) issued a letter requiring review of several large Fiscal Year 2013 wildfires. The Washington Office Fire and Aviation Management (FAM) staff, with input from the Northern Region Fire and Aviation Management Director determined that the Gold Pan Complex would be reviewed. Fires were selected based on complexity and national significance. The designated fires represent a cross section of our risk management and investment performance, which includes financial, size, and oversight complexity. Specific details were sent to the individual Regions/Forests prior to each review. The reviews were conducted using the 2013 Risk Decision Framework.

On January 17, 2014, Tom Harbour, Director of Fire and Aviation Management delegated Dan Kleinman to be the Team Leader for the 2013 Programmatic/Cost Fire Review for the Gold Pan Complex that occurred on the Bitterroot National Forest in Montana. The purpose of the review is to learn from those who were involved and share those lessons learned.

Background

The team reviewed numerous documents located on the Forest, within the Gold Pan ftp site, and on InciWeb. Documentation that was reviewed included: Incident Action Plans (IAPs); WFDSS; Incident Status Summaries (209’s); fire maps; and cost summaries. On-site interviews were held in Hamilton, Montana February 19-21, 2014. This included some phone interviews which carried into the following week. Those interviewed included the: Forest Supervisor; Retired Forest Fire Management Officer (FFMO); Acting Forest Fire Management Officer (FFMO); District Ranger; District Fire Management Officers (DFMO) and Assistant Fire Management Officer (AFMO); Incident Commanders (IC) and Operations Section Chiefs (OSC) from the three incident management teams; Forest Service Law Enforcement; Sheriff’s Office personnel; Montana Department of Natural Resource Conservation (DNRC) personnel; and Rural Fire Department (RFD) personnel.

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Review Objectives:

Objectively look at actions taken by the Incident Management Team and the local Agency Administrator to meet the direction provided by the Forest Service Chief

Asses the consideration and effectiveness of applying risk management concepts to incident cost through the associated decisions and expenditures as an outcome

Identify Best Business Practices Used on Fires This Past Season

Identify How Social and Political Issues Factored Into Our Decision Making

Identify Which Current Procedures Can Be Enhanced or Expanded

Identify Improvements That Can Be Made In Sharing and Clarifying Expectations

Review Team Members:

Shari Miller, AD Fire Planning & Budget, Northern Region

Jeff Shinn, District Ranger, Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forest

Shane Greer, AD Risk Management, Rocky Mountain Region

Robert Sanders, DFMO, Pacific Southwest Region

Will Briggs, DFMO, Rocky Mountain Region


The review team found that there were many factors that influenced the outcome of the Gold Pan Complex. It was a complex incident located in difficult terrain with little fire occurrence in the immediate area. The surrounding area has a long history of large ecological beneficial wildfires. These past burns were anticipated to have a cumulative effect of modifying fire growth and checking fire spread on portions of the Gold Pan Fire thus providing managers with options in addressing protection strategies. After five days of benign fire behavior, condition changed rapidly with significant fire increase. This was based upon the Energy Release Component (ERC) climbing into the 97th percentile and decadent and available fuel conditions.

The review team focused on the objectives of the review and was cognizant of not being influenced by hindsight bias when reviewing documents or interviewing people. The team had open discussions with personnel regarding the incident, their interactions, and what they thought was important to share as lessons learned.

Critical Values at Risk

Values at risk in the fire area as identified by Forest Service, cooperators/partners, and stakeholders included: outfitter/guide operations (hunting units); road access for recreational use (Magruder Road); cultural sites; threatened, endangered and sensitive species and habitat (bull trout and steelhead); recreation sites; several Forest Service Administrative sites including historic ranger station; lookouts; private structures and property; public/cooperator/partner relationships; and an active timber sale. Resource values, such as wildlife habitat, watershed values, aesthetics, etc. were identified by agency personnel. The communities of Painted Rock and West Fork are located a distance from the fire, they were not directly threatened.

Gold Pan Fire - Summary of Actions

The Gold Pan Fire (MT-BRF-013039) was ignited by lightning on Tuesday, July 16, 2013 and was declared 100% contained on October 3, 2013 after burning 43,429 acres in Idaho and Montana on the Bitterroot National Forest (NF).

The fire was detected and put into monitor status on July 16, 2013. The rapid growth of the Gold Pan Fire in acres on July 21, 2013 led to the order of a Wildland Fire Management Team (WFMT) led by Diane Hutton which assumed command on July 29, 2013 and also

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Review Team Members Continued:

Chad Olson, AFFMO, Intermountain Region

Reggie Day, DAFMO, Idaho Panhandle National Forest

Bertram Smith, Helitack Squad Leader, Flathead National Forest


included the Goat Fire to make this a complex. The Gold Pan Fire was initially managed for a long duration event but rapidly progressed in complexity and due to the Organizational Needs Assessment (ONA) determined the need for a Type 1 Incident Management Team (IMT). The rapid growth in size, complexity, and the presence of communities and private land out ahead of the fire resulted in more of a point protection strategy with multiple transitions of IMTs.

Greg Poncin’s Northern Rockies Type 1 IMT transitioned and assumed command of the Gold Pan Complex on July 31, 2013 and continued with the long-term planning strategy and point protection until transitioning back to (Hutton’s WFMT).

Diane Hutton’s WFMT transitioned and assumed command on August 13, 2013 and over the next few operational periods a dry cold front would move through the fire area rapidly increasing the acreage and starting two additional fires; the Nez Peak Fire and the Thirteen Fire which would be added to the complex. The Gold Pan Fire triggered multiple Management Action Points (MAPS) which required consideration for implementing Stage 1 and possibly Stage 2 evacuation for the residents of the West Fork of the Bitterroot Valley as well as significantly increasing the area closure. The Nez Peak Fire was now within ½ mile of the wilderness boundary close to triggering multiple MAPS as well. Due to this it required a substantial increase in critical suppression resource needs (aviation, crews and overhead) to implement the contingency plan to keep the fire out of the wildland urban interface along the West Fork of the Bitterroot Valley. This new complexity determined that another Type 1 IMT needed to be ordered.

Doug Turman’s Northern Rockies Type 1 IMT transitioned and assumed command on August 19, 2013 and took the fire until it was released to a Type 3 IMT on September 1, 2013.

Jeff Handel’s Type 3 IMT transitioned and assumed command on September 1, 2013 the Nick and Steep Fires were added to the complex. On September 13, 2013 the Gold Pan Complex was turned back over to the local unit.

The Gold Pan Complex was contained on October 3, 2013, eighty days after ignition.

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Objectively look at actions taken by the Incident Management Team and the local Agency Administrator to meet the direction provided by the Forest Service Chief

Pre-season meetings with Forests and Cooperators have proven to be beneficial to identify approaches to common issues. Additional ways to gain insight is an after action review post season or post fire. The cooperators in this area are very appreciative for efforts taken by the Forest in this area.

Strategic Risk Assessment was completed by the Type 2 team and forest personnel. The five rights were incorporated into this process.

Good engagement with the forest pre-season. Chief’s direction was explained by the Forest Service to a large group of RFDs, DNR and county official’s pre-season. This pre-season engagement was also driven by two previous fires from 2012 (Mustang and Crandel).

Pre-season engagements between the Bitterroot NF and the county sheriff’s department along with emergency services, county commissioners and RFDs. No simulations conducted but a clear understanding of priorities discussed.

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The following are key observations and correspondi

Gold Pan Complex Fire

Gold Pan Complex Fire

Observation by Objective:

The following are key observations and corresponding lessons learned organized by the four objectives of the review.


During the season updates are given to the sheriff’s department on seasonal outlooks, fire danger and potential along with updates on local fire activity.

The employees, cooperators and the adjacent Forest are impressed with the well thought out plans for infrastructure protection, contingency and long-term strategy that was developed by the two teams that were in place to protect values at risk. The completeness and implementation of these plans are excellent. These protection plans have been an asset when used by the adjacent Forest when managing fires in this area especially on boundary fires. Consider expanding these to the entire Bitterroot NF if not already in use.

Daily during action review was conducted with the District Ranger and the IMT with the discussion topic of risk management.

Early integration of a Long Term Fire Analyst (LTAN)/ Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN) can create very helpful products to enhance and or stimulate informed conversation in regard to strategy, the decision making process, and risk management objectives. Early in the Gold Pan fire there was some friction and delays of this integration. This understanding of the importance and acceptance evolved rapidly.

Continued monitoring and adjustments, as situations/behaviors changed, aided incident personnel and Agency Administrators (AA) with communicating risk informed strategies to engage stakeholders. Furthermore, LTAN/FBAN products were used, as a valuable tool, to help educate the public on long-term effects/predictions.

Pre-season planning/meetings involving stakeholders/cooperators were important to enhance a common understanding of roles and responsibilities.

Pre-season planning/meetings involving stakeholders/cooperators were important to communicate a common understanding of the values at risk.

During the initial stages of the incident, the Forest Fire Staff/AA engaged local Fire Warden involvement which led to enhanced coordination with outlying Rural Fire Districts, and enabled a good conduit for information sharing with local county commissioners.

County Fire Warden served as a Liaison for the IMT’s, which again enhanced local coordination with Rural Fire Districts. This embedded two-way risk communications, and solicited input/ownership into the strategy with the IMT.

Assess the consideration and effectiveness of applying risk management concepts to incident cost through the associated decisions and expenditures as an outcome

Through the decision-making process cost was a consideration. The costs for crews/line personnel versus aircraft appeared to be balanced proportionally.

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Cost share opportunities were identified and agreed upon in advance in anticipation that the fire could reach other jurisdictions.

Values at risk and expectations were clearly identified between the Bitterroot NF and the County Fire Warden. This led to decisions on expenditures based on the potential values at risk.

Money spent was primarily on aviation assets; however it was justified on the threat to the surrounding communities.

Although this was a wilderness incident, and may be perceived as expensive, the overall outcome had many successes. The outcome of this fire was at a lower than average cost per acre for past wilderness fire’s on the Forest. There also was a close attention to sound risk management with no major injuries or death, many acres treated, and contingency barriers in place for future incidents which contributed to the overall success.

Identify best business practices used on fires this past season

The development and the implementation of the Northern Region Coordinating Group’s (NRCG) Decision Document Template which outlines roles and responsibilities (including financial responsibilities) for wildland fire, structure protection, structure suppression, evacuations, road/highway management, and search and rescue (see Lessons Learned page 10).

Direction from the Regional Office was clear on fires in the wilderness; however WFDSS became a barrier and was only navigated successfully after a WFDSS “expert” was assigned.

Risk management dialog was well received by the local fire districts and the public during the community meetings.

There was sound, clear, and concise communication used with interaction with DNR. A solid working relationship with DNR facilitated positive agreements on equipment and personnel.

Joint news releases between the forest and sheriff’s department delivered consistent messages on area closures, road closures, and conditions.

Conduct pre-season activities with stakeholder to share understandings of firefighter risks, identification of values at risk, and risk/versus gain strategies.

Large contingency lines that were established will provide strategic/tactical strongholds for years into the future, reducing future expenditures and exposure to incident responders.

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Identify how social and political issues factored into our decision making

Social and political concerns were addressed through a number of venues pre-season.

Concerns identified when the fire had potential to leave the wilderness and create smoke impacts to surrounding communities. These concerns along with fire growth and potential drove decisions to order IMTs.

Public safety, social, and political concerns were a hot topic for consideration throughout the duration of the fire.

The concern for fire threatening the community of Painted Rocks was a factor for decision making.

Stakeholders were actively engaged in the process. Wilderness values were a major consideration. Outfitter camp located within the planning area created some level of distraction

from decision making but ultimately did not influence decisions. Public safety and values at risk drove decisions on closures and potential

evacuations. Social, political issues faced on this fire were impacts of smoke on the community

and interaction with the RFDs. Community meetings were conducted however they were focused just on the communities adjacent to the fire. The valley at large was not receiving the same information on the fire and what “success of the fire looked like.”

Two RFDs at the beginning of the season did not want to sign up with DNR who administers agreements and payments. Because of the lack of state protection around the Bitterroot NF, DNR is not as engaged with all the RFDs in the surrounding area. In addition, it was noted previously to the fire that the two departments had biases with the forest. To mitigate these issues with the RFDs, two liaisons were identified from theses departments to help build a positive working relationship and to engage the RFDs in the roles and responsibilities with the FS. These two liaisons, along with the county fire warden were also utilized by the IMTs to assist coordination between the IMTs and RFDs.

Identify which current procedures can be enhanced or expanded

Integrating the long-term planning process into the scope of Type 1 and Type 2 IMTs would be a benefit for future wildfire management.

It was difficult to shift from the 2012 direction in the Chief’s Letter to the 2013 direction. It was noted that the 2013 was better received and welcomed compared to the 2012 letter. A consistent direction/message would be easier to implement and carry out.

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Conduct pre-season simulations between cooperators and the Bitterroot NF at the beginning of the year would enhance understanding and roles between agencies.

Continued and enhanced pre-season coordination and communication needs to continue. With the many key retirements within the Forest organization, incoming replacements need to develop existing relationships with stakeholders, and carry forward what their predecessors have successfully built.

Identify improvements that can be made in sharing and clarifying expectations

Preparation for in-briefings was cited by the Forest FMO as an area that was enhanced during this fire. Pre-season preparation on delegations for incidents proves to be invaluable.

Forest Service Law Enforcement noted that they needed to be engaged with the fire prior to the IMTs arrival. They felt slightly behind the power curve.

Gold Pan Complex

Lessons Learned- Observations and Recommendations

National Priority

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Gold Pan Fire Positive Outcomes

Ecological benefits, restoration to over 43,000 acres. No major injuries or fatalities. No structures destroyed. Minor damage occurred to one outfitter base camp. Cost of restoration was less than $300 per acre. Stakeholder relationship tested and improved with volunteer fire

departments for communities of Painted Rock and West Fork. Good closure plan developed. Great coordination with Forest Service Law Enforcement and County

Sheriff’s personnel. Fuel break completed west of private lands and south along Took Creek

Saddle east of Bare Cone Lookout. The treatments varied from hand thinning 10-20 feet of road embankment to mechanical clippers along stretches of roadways for a total of 35.5 miles.

A partial fire barrier at the head of Blue Joint Drainage of 3,388 acres.

The Northern Region and their interagency partners developed the NRCG Decision Document Template which outlines roles and responsibilities (including financial responsibilities) for wildland fire, structure protection, structure suppression, evacuations, road/highway management, and search and rescue. The Decision Document Template may be utilized to document these types of decisions when there will not be a cost share agreement, and allows us to document financial responsibilities and significant decisions made with agencies that would not normally be party to a cost share agreement, such as the Department of Transportation or the Sheriff’s Department. The Decision Document Template is also used to define selected cost share methodologies agreed upon by agency administrators. The use of this template has allowed them to streamline our cost share agreements to only include the basic information needed by agency payment centers. Once a cost share agreement is completed, it becomes an addendum to the Decision Document Template. One of the major advantages to using the Decision Document Template is that filling out the template and identifying responsible parties assists agency administrators with the decision making and negotiation process.Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) Observations: Six WFDSS Decisions were published. However, the WFDSS process didn’t appear to have supported or informed the first three decisions but, rather, to

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merely have documented it as they did not include any fire behavior analyses (7/17, 7/22, and 8/1), an Organizational Needs Assessment (7/17 and 7/22), or the 10 Risk Questions (7/17). Forest personnel expressed frustration with the lack of user friendliness, suggesting the system should indicate the user’s progress through a step-wise process (i.e. the progress bar on the Amazon.com site when placing an order). It was also suggested that Line Officers need an improved understanding of how to use the WFDSS information to make their decisions.

Recommendations:

1. Increase user friendliness by inclusion of user progress indicator, ensuring all required steps are included in left-to-right flow, and automatically include completed fire behavior analyses.

2. Write a 1-2 page Line Officer guide on use of WFDSS information, such as fire behavior analyses, ERC graphs, Stratified Cost Index (SCI) estimates, Relative Risk Assessments, and Organization Assessments, and considerations for making and summarizing their decision, based on this information (reference WFDSS Lesson 17 and WFDSS Help).

Tactical Actions/Leader’s Intent

Observations: Some interviewees commented that the tactical actions taken within the wilderness to slow fire spread exposed firefighters to risk and/or increased costs unnecessarily, due to direction to keep the fire in the wilderness. Because the wilderness boundary was not defensible, based on fuels and topography, this direction seemed inconsistent with fire behavior analyses and objectives regarding cost effectiveness and exposure.

Recommendation: Ensure Leader’s Intent, i.e. Rationale in WFDSS Decision is consistent with the supporting information and clearly understood by the IMT.

Lack of perceived understanding of the value of an LTAN by some of the Type 1 IMT led to a small degree of friction and a delayed integration of long-term planning tools. It was suggested that better understanding/coordination needs to occur with IMT staff early. The lesson learned was that this combined efforts proved to be successful.

Effective pre-season communication about risk, values at risk, and firefighter exposure with stakeholders, partners and adjacent units was critical to the success during the incident.

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A suggestion from one of the IMTs is for the Agency to provide a risk management process that is identified and understood. How do we consistently move forward as an organization within risk management, within a subjective process, and limited with tools?

Integration of long-term planning and modeling skills into existing IMTs proved to be highly beneficial. In this situation the Type 2 Incident Commander (ICT2) became the Deputy IC for the combined team. With the long-term plan development, both teams entered into a Strategic Risk Assessment process. The Type 1 personnel became directly involved with this process with experienced planners Strategic Operational Planner (SOPL/LTAN). This was a great learning opportunity for the Type 1 personnel and a benefit for both organizations.

Regional and Local Priority

The initial decision and course of action to allow the Gold Pan Fire to burn to accomplish resource objectives was an important topic that many of the personnel interviewed were eager to discuss. It appeared the decision model used was inadequate and didn’t fit the complexity of the environmental conditions and the values at risk. The decision model was closed and lacked the inclusion of decision support tools and subject matter expert collaboration and advice.

There were six WFDSS decisions that were published. The WFDSS process didn’t appear to have supported or informed the first three decisions. In the first three published decisions, it appeared to have been used primarily to document the decision not to support or provide information for the decisions as they did not include any fire behavior analyses (7/17 and 7/22), Organizational Needs Assessment (7/17 and 7/22), or the 10 Risk Questions (7/17).

This appears to be an intuitive decision model versus an analytical methodology that allows for the inclusion of information that is value based, includes a risk management analysis, evaluates criteria, and develops alternatives to choose from for the decision process. The model used did not allow for the contemplation of end state goals, there were no alternatives to select from, and lacked a strategic risk assessment process. Shortly after the IMT order, the Regional Forester rescinded authority for the District Ranger to be the decision maker on allowing fires to have objectives other than full suppression.

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International Seminar on Protected Area Management Visit to the Bitterroot National Forest July 25 -28, 2013

Observations: The Seminar was sponsored by the U.S. Forest Service International Programs and included University of Montana coordinators. Approximately thirty seminar attendees were from around the world, including Russia, Brazil, Africa, India and other countries. The purpose of this international visit was to learn about wilderness management on the Bitterroot National Forest and hear from local business owners and outfitter guides. The plan was to spend four days July 25 through July 28, 2013 camped at the Magruder Ranger Station in the Selway Bitterroot Wilderness. Due to the approaching fire, the group was evacuated on July 27, 2013 due to the approaching fire. Some review interviewees stated that the presence of this group was a distraction to key a forest individual in managing the fire and performing their duties. It was also stated that, on a given day, the presence of this group in the fire environment concerned operations personnel assigned to that area. The operations personnel felt an increased sense of risk with the situation and that the international group should not have been allowed at that location, due to the fire’s location and behavior. It was also stated that the risk exposure to the international group was inappropriate.

Recommendation: In the future, any special group activities, as it relates to wildfire management needs to be well thought out. Specifically, risk versus gain, potential learning versus the exposure to risk, and management of a special group versus the disruption to wildfire management should be considered. Historical Fires/Fire Behavior

Observations: Some interviewees stated that fires do not cross the Selway River. Additionally, past fire scars were not expected to burn, as reflected in the 7/19 fire behavior analysis, and, in 2012, it was not anticipated that the Mustang Fire would burn through past fire scars and onto the forest. In hindsight, one interviewee postulated the 1000-hour fuels in the fire scars was carrying fire, due to early fall freezing and quick spring drying. This is consistent with the 1000-hour fuel moisture and Energy Release Component (ERC) values at the West Fork RAWS which were both approximately 15% below average and approaching the 10 th and 90th percentiles, respectively, early in the season (average lows/highs typically occur in mid-August).

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Recommendation: Consider fire danger indicators and short and long-term weather to avoid over-confidence in conventional wisdom and seek input from a variety of sources.

The work to expand the use of social media was increased to keep the public and stakeholders informed on this incident. Some of the examples were Facebook and Twitter. This was noteworthy and an area that the FFMO concentrated his efforts during the fire.

During the first team transition, some cross-training occurred with the Type 1 and Type 2 IMT that specializes in long-term planning to create a long-term plan to deal with the Gold Pan Fire. The consensus was that with this approach created a plan that capitalized on the efforts of both teams and created an applicable long-term plan. Also in this organizational integration, the IC Type 2 became the Deputy IC that provided cohesion which joined the two IMTs as one.

Road Closures

Observations: Several times in different interviews with employees, cooperators, and the adjacent forest, the road corridor within the Gold Pan Fire perimeter in relation to closures was brought up as an issue. Closures need to be coordinated with the neighboring forest as they occur. Closures maybe occurring on one entrance but the neighboring forest may not have closed their side of the road. This could lead to potential public safety issues and inconsistent messages about the threat. Throughout the initial stages of the incident, road guards were driving through the fire area, and used on the far side of the incident. This resulted in the road guards being in and out of communication. It was determined to be too dangerous, so the decision was made to barricade those locations. These concerns were considered and acted upon by implementing smaller closure areas versus one or two large areas which aided with coordination/communication with the sheriff’s department and the public.

Recommendations: Consider developing a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) to identify management action points, communications, and timeframes to assist in future fires occurring in this area. It was suggested that the Forest should consider hard gate closures at strategic locations, instead of using road guards. The hard closures could be in place and used for future incidents, thus reducing exposure of the guards and quicker facilitation of the closure.

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During the 2000 fire season, several “close calls” and near entrapments occurred while the sheriff’s department was engaged in public evacuations. Because of this, the Bitterroot NF provided the sheriff’s department with yearly refreshers and fire shelter training up until 2008. The Bitterroot NF and the sheriff’s department plan to incorporate this training once again.

The Agency Administrator(s) interaction with IMT led to some confusion as both District Ranger and Forest Supervisor were interacting with the IMT. This was identified early and the Forest Supervisor and District Ranger attempted to correct this situation. This situation was improved upon but continued at times, too a much lesser extent, through the history of the fire.

Clarity of communication and expectation with the District Ranger was needed as well as a better understanding of the District Ranger’s expectations and relationship with DFMO. An internal After Action Review (AAR) would have been beneficial but did not occur. The disagreement between the DFMO and District Ranger became as stated an “incident within an incident.”

A post forest or stakeholder AAR was not conducted. This process is imperative for a learning organization to improve and be successful.

Pre-season engagement with partners and cooperators continued to solidify relationships and developed continuity.

With many key retirements within the forest’s organization, a continued and robust effort needs to continue with incoming replacements, to help foster stakeholder relationships.

IMTs utilizing two liaisons from the local RFDs helped alleviate concerns from fire districts and include them in the decision-making. This built rapport with the local RFDs and clarified expectations with all parties.

Continue to engage in pre-season meetings between the DNR, the Bitterroot NF and local rural fire districts. Roles and responsibilities of all cooperators locally should be clearly identified through pre-season planning and exercises which would lead to a better understanding of the protection agreements and Annual Operating Plans (AOPs).

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Although good pre-season meetings were held, it was recommended that table top/simulation exercises would be better. The benefits of these types of activities include understanding roles and responsibilities and authorities of the different agency entities. It gives participants an opportunity to exercise those roles and create understandings.

Although yearly AARs had been conducted with agency employees and stakeholders, the review team is recommending that a per-incident AAR be completed.

Aviation resources were shared with the local unit for initial attack and with other wildfires in the general area which proved to be highly effective and efficient.

With direction from the unit there were deliberate efforts by IMTs to work with cooperators to continue to improve relationships.

Fire ChronologyDate % Command Acres + Comments Person Est. Cost7/16 0 Initial Attack 1/10 Natural ignition 0 n/a7/17 0 Initial Attack 1 Unburned mixed conifer

stand1 500

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7/22 0 SOPL 2,000 1999 Significant fire growth 15 20,0007/23 0 T3 S. Olpin 3,081 1081 Evaluate MAP’s 1 20,0007/25 0 T3 S. Olpin 4,295 1214 Cont. evaluate MAP’s 4 25,0007/27 0 T3 S. Olpin 7,175 2880 10 VAR, Hutton WFMT

transition, Goat Fire3 126,000

7/28 0 T3 S. Olpin 8,900 1725 Significant run toward Magruder Road

111 106,250

7/29 0 T2 D. Hutton 13,212 4312 97th percentile, extreme fire, prep VAR

110 234,734

7/30 0 T2 D. Hutton 14,012 800 Develop long- term plan, no inversion, Magruder road

220 572,298

7/31 0 T1 G. Poncin 15,012 1000 Transition, suppression activities, extreme fire

309 945,000

8/1 0 T1 G. Poncin 16,318 1306 Precip occurred, prep Magruder road

363 1.4 mil

8/2 0 T1 G. Poncin 16,330 12 2 injuries, minimal fire, mop-up Magruder road

422 1.9 mil

8/3 0 T1 G. Poncin 16,342 12 Lack of safety zones, long-term plan complete

446 2.4 mil

8/4 0 T1 G. Poncin 16,342 0 Increased fire, cont. contingency options

456 2.9 mil

8/5 0 T1 G. Poncin 16,342 0 Poncin assumes command Hutton shadow, mop up

464 3.4 mil

8/6 0 T1 G. Poncin 16,358 16 Minimal fire, poor access, potential burnout

492 3.7 mil

8/7 0 T1 G. Poncin 16,412 54 Burnout Magruder road, burn plans for divisions

477 4.2 mil

8/8 0 T1 G. Poncin 16,959 547 Contingency lines complete, night shift

476 4.7 mil

8/9 0 T1 G. Poncin 17,116 157 Poor safety zones, minimal fire, develop rehab plan

382 5.2 mil

8/10 0 T1 G. Poncin 17,132 16 Red Flag warning, holding and mop up Magruder rd.

346 5.5 mil

8/11 0 T1 G. Poncin 17,149 17 Red Flag warning, 30 miles fireline to date

266 5.8 mil

8/12 0 T1 G. Poncin 17,163 14 Demob, mop up, warming and drying trend

278 6.1 mil

8/13 0 T2 D. Hutton 17,182 19 Transition, dry cold front, mop up holding continues

191 6.4 mil

8/14 0 T2 D. Hutton 17,258 76 High Haines, active fire, Thirteen and Nez Peak Fires detected and added to Complex

164 6.6 mil

8/15 0 T2 D. Hutton 18,059 801 310 VAR, Red Flag, active fire, spotting, Nez Peak Fire active

172 6.8 mil

8/16 0 T2 D. Hutton 21,315 3256 Red Flag, Haines 6, plume dominated fire, MAP’s breached possible evac,

209 7.0 mil

8/17 0 T2 D. Hutton 26,169 4854 WUI concerns, continuous fuel bed, increase planning area

248 7.3 mil

8/18 0 T2 D. Hutton 27,034 865 Spotting, plume dominated 233 7.6 mil17 | P a g e


fire, mop up Magruder road, VAR prep

8/19 0 T1 D. Turman 28,332 1298 Red Flag Warning Turman’s IMT assumed command at 0600

280 8 mil

8/20 0 T1 D. Turman 29,737 1405 Large area closures as fire continues to advance towards urban interface, Nez Peak Fire is under Full Suppression, due to safety only aerial resources will be utilized

274 8.3 mil

8/21 0 T1 D. Turman 31,827 2090 Eastern most edge of fire has crossed into Montana

270 8.5 mil

8/22 0 T1 D. Turman 34,028 2201 Moderate fire activity with group tree torching, short crown runs and spotting

262 8.8 mil

8/23 0 T1 D. Turman 34,992 964 Active in Vance Cr. sustained crown runs moderate range spotting

260 9.1 mil

8/24 0 T1 D. Turman 35,043 51 Fire spotted across the Cayuse Creek drainage, became established

285 9.4 mil

8/25 0 T1 D. Turman 37,138 2095 Forecasted S winds could continue to push Gold Pan E/NE likely joining with the Nez Peak Fire

276 9.7 mil

8/26 0 T1 D. Turman 37,927 789 Slight reduction in closure area became effective today

270 9.9 mil

8/27 0 T1 D. Turman 38,498 571 Due to yesterday’s lightning, Gold Pan resources assisted Bitterroot Forest with IA

254 10.1 mil

8/28 0 T1 D. Turman 39,428 930 Minimal spread anticipated due to this morning’s precipitation

247 10.2 mil

8/29 0 T1 D. Turman 39,549 121 Inactive in am, dry thunderstorm developed over fire area in pm increasing fire behavior

242 10.4 mil

8/30 0 T1 D. Turman 39,982 433 Crews continue to keep travel routes clear, protect infrastructure

182 10.6 mil

8/31 0 T1 D. Turman 40,188 206 Incoming T3 org. shadowed Turman’s team today, Nick and Steep Fires added to complex

139 10.8 mil

9/1 0 T3 J. Handel 42,319 2131 Jeff Handel’s T3 team took command at 0600 today

77 10.9 mil

9/2 0 T3 J. Handel 42,578 259 Fire crossed Blue Joint to the E, has potential to trigger MAP11, includes consideration of Stage 1 evacuations

78 10.9 mil

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9/3 0 T3 J. Handel 42,690 112 Most of area received light rain

78 11 mil

9/4 0 T3 J. Handel 42,749 59 Utilized Type 1 helicopter to check fire spread East of Blue Joint creek

76 11.1 mil

9/5 0 T3 J. Handel 42,749 0 Relatively inactive due to widespread rain, low temps, higher RH’s

67 11.1 mil

9/6 0 T3 J. Handel 42,749 0 Magruder Corridor Rd. #468 was re-opened with no restrictions. Closure area was reduced.

66 11.2 mil

9/7 0 T3 J. Handel 42,749 0 Relatively inactive FB today, used Type 1 helicopter to check fire spread in Jack the Ripper Creek.

64 11.2 mil

9/8 0 T3 J. Handel 42,749 0 Hell's Half Lookout tower was unwrapped.

76 11.3 mil

9/9 0 T3 J. Handel 42,749 0 Relatively inactive today due to recent widespread rain and today's lower temps, higher RH’s, and cloud cover.

70 11.3 mil

9/10 0 T3 J. Handel 42,749 0 Rehabilitation operations will continue.

62 11.3 mil

9/11 0 T3 J. Handel 42,749 0 Handline rehabilitation has been completed.

42 11.4 mil

9/12 0 T4 A. Walters 42,927 178 The fire will be turned back to the local unit on Friday, 09/13/2013 at 12:00 pm.

9 11.4 mil

9/19 0 T4 A. Walters 43,125 198 Recon and Monitor fire activity in Blue Joint and Jack the Ripper

9 11.4

10/31 100 T4 A. Walters 43,429 304 Growth Potential Low 1 11.8 mil

Gold Pan Complex

Incident Name Suppression Strategy

Size MMA Cost to Date

Gold Pan Point Zone 41, 888 0% $11,348,878

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ProtectionGoat Monitor 15 0% $6,000Thirteen Monitor 1 0% $6,000Nez Peak Full Suppression 1525 0% $500,000Nick Full Suppression 1 100% $5,000Steep Full Suppression 1 100% $5,000

ATTACHMENTS

WFDSS Summary (July 17 – August 19, 2013) see pages 20-55. Fire Progression Maps see pages 56-58.

WFDSS SUMMARY (Weather, Objectives, Course of Action, Rationale)

July 17, 2013 - Day 2 of Fire, Initial Attack (IA)

Weather

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3-7 day, Haines 4, partly cloudy chance of precip and t-storms, temps 80 – 90 degrees.

Objectives

Make the health and safety of firefighters and the public the highest priority at all times.

Protect identified natural and cultural resource values at risk. Plan and conduct fire management activities that protect identified private/public

resources. Utilize fire to maintain and/or improve healthy, dynamic ecosystems that meet land

management goals.

Course of Action

Follow the planned initial response. Notify Forest Heritage Resources Coordinator, Forest Wilderness/Trails Program

Manager, and West Fork Outfitter and Guide liaison. Continue daily monitoring from staffed lookouts, air patrols, and road patrols to

record fire activity and growth. Post fire information signs on National Forest System (NFS) trails #705, #89, and at

Observation Point. If National Forest System (NFS) road #468 is being impacted by smoke, consider

posting signs or using road guards and notify the Nez Perce of the potential impacts to the road.

Map the fire when significant growth occurs to obtain current size, new growth, and proximity to boundaries and values at risk.

Coordinate with Bitterroot National Forest information officers to develop fire information updates for dissemination to all employees, air quality managers, external/cooperating agencies, media, legislative outlets, local communities, adjacent landowners, cooperating and adjoining agency Public Affairs Officers and other interested parties on an as needed basis.

Point protection and modified suppression tactics to protect values at risk is the current course of action. A long-term plan that is being developed to manage this incident with subsequent management action points (MAPs) addressing key actions/decisions that need to take place as the fire progresses to protect lives, property, structures and other values at risk for the duration of this incident. MAPs will be monitored continually and actions/decisions will be implemented to meet incident objectives and requirements.

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Rationale

Due to the fire's remote wilderness location, distance to values at risk, small size, barriers to spread and minimal fire activity this fire will be managed for restoration objectives.

Risk Assessment

What are the critical values at risk?

The fire is currently 1/10th of an acre with very minimal fire activity in a remote wilderness area with some barriers to fire spread and over 1 mile from any values at risk.

Will review relative risk assessment if things significantly change.

What is the chance the critical value(s) will be impacted and if so, what are the consequences?

Unavailable in published WFDSS.

What are the opportunities to manage the fire to meet land management plan objectives?


What are the low probability/high consequence events?


Who are the stakeholders that should be consulted prior to making a decision?


Risk Decision

What alternatives (objectives, strategies, and tactics) are being considered?

Objectives for the incident include:

Manage incident operations in a cost effective and efficient manner.

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Strategic and tactical alternatives:

In an area where fires have been allowed to play their natural role in the wilderness for several decades. Large fire scars to the north and south which would help keep the fire as a surface fire if moving in those directions.

What is the exposure to responders for the alternatives being considered?


What is the relative probability of success associated with the alternatives being considered?

Only about 2 weeks into our fire season. Several large fire scars in the area as well as some rocky scree slopes to the west that will help reduce fire spread.

What alternative provides for the best balance between the desired outcome and exposure to responders?


What are the critical thresholds that will trigger reconsideration of the proposed alternatives and how will they be monitored.

The fire is currently 1 mile SW of Kim Creek Saddle. Outhouse, hitching rails, sign boards, and an Outfitter Base Camp are located there. It's also the closest point where the fire could impact NFS road #468 which is the only road through the wilderness.

July 22, 2013 - Day 7 of Fire

Weather

Dry, breezy, 3-7 day, partly cloudy chance of T-storms, temps 55-70/75-90 degrees.

Objectives

Manage incident operations in a cost effective and efficient manner. Minimize the fires impact to infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle as well as to NFS

road #468.

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Course of Action

July 17, 2013 4 Follow the planned initial response.4 Notify Forest Heritage Resources Coordinator, Forest Wilderness/Trails

Program Manager, and West Fork Outfitter and Guide liaison.4 Continue daily monitoring from staffed lookouts, air patrols, and road patrols to

record fire activity and growth.4 Post fire information signs on NFS trails #705, #89, and at Observation Point.4 If NFS road #468 is being impacted by smoke, consider posting signs or using

road guards and notify the Nez Perce of the potential impacts to the road.4 Map the fire when significant growth occurs to obtain current size, new growth,

and proximity to boundaries and values at risk.4 Coordinate with Bitterroot National Forest information officers to develop fire

information updates for dissemination to all employees, air quality managers, external/cooperating agencies, media, legislative outlets, local communities, adjacent landowners, cooperating and adjoining agency Public Affairs Officers and other interested parties on an as needed basis.

Rationale

Unavailable in published WFDSS

Risk Assessment


Forest infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle (1 mile NW) including an outhouse, sign boards, and hitching rails.

NFS road #468 which is the only road through the wilderness to Elk City, ID. Miscellaneous signs along NFS road #468. Historic Magruder Ranger Station (5 miles NW). Outfitter Base Camp located at Kim Creek Saddle.

What is the chance the critical values at risk will be impacted and, if so, what are the consequences?

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Likely the fire will impact Kim Creek Saddle and NFS road #468. Consequences could include potential damage to infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle and along the road system, damage to and/or evacuation of Outfitter Base Camp, potential road closure or delays on NFS road #468, increased exposure to firefighters and public based on managing these consequences, and a significant increase in incident costs.

Unlikely the fire will impact Magruder Ranger Station. If so, consequences could include damage to a prized historic site.


The fire is located in a remote wilderness area where the Forest Plan allows for fires to play their natural role and be managed for restoration objectives.

What are the possible low probability/high consequence events?

Fire impacting any of the above mentioned values at risk before mitigation measures are in place

Firefighters or public being trapped or injured while traveling on NFS road #468 or while implementing the strategies and tactics necessary to mitigate the fires impacts to the values at risk.

Potential for long duration smoke impacts in the Magruder Corridor as well as in the populated areas of the Nez Perce and West Fork drainages.


Local FS employees that will be directly impacted by the management strategy/objectives chosen to manage the incident: Forest Supervisor, District Ranger, District FMO/AFMO, Wilderness Program Manager and Forest FMO.

Risk Decision


Full Suppression Restoration Objectives with Point Protection Strategy

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Full Suppression - minimal exposure to firefighters and public as it is estimated the fire could be contained at 1/4 acre in 2 shifts with a 4 person Initial Attack (IA) module and no aviation support. Would also negate any impacts to the values at risk listed above.

Restoration Objectives with Point Protection Strategy - as with most large/long duration events exposure to responders will be higher. Because values at risk will likely be impacted, it is estimated that various IA modules/crews/engines/road guards will be engaged in some manner to implement mitigation measures to potential values at risk. It is also likely that aviation resources will be used either for recons or to assist in implementing tactics necessary for point protection.


Full Suppression - very high probability of success as local IA resources are readily available and the fire received approximately 1/3 inch of rain after detection temporarily minimizing fire behavior and spread.

Restoration Objectives with Point Protection Strategy - high probability of success as the fire is in a remote wilderness area with few values at risk in close proximity and local fire managers are very experienced at managing large/long duration events.


A restoration objective with point protection strategy strikes the best balance. The location of the Gold Pan Fire near the Magruder Corridor makes a simple restoration objective more complex in that there are values at risk close by at Kim Creek Saddle. The burning conditions and the length of fire season ahead make it important to weigh carefully the risk to responders with the probability of success for the strategy. It is desirable to slow the progress of the fire across the corridor to reduce long-term complexity in managing the incident. The actions taken to slow the progress will first take into account risk to responders.

What are the critical thresholds that will trigger reconsideration of the proposed alternatives and how will they be monitored?

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Should the fire burn through Kim Creek Saddle, the point protection portion of the strategy will become moot for that location. Other values at risk may need to be protected as the fire season develops (Observation Point, Magruder Ranger Station, Hells Half Lookout, trail bridges).

August 1, 2013 - Day 16 of Fire, G. Poncin Type 1 Team

Weather

3-7 day, Haines 4-2, partly cloudy chance of precip and t-storms, temps 75 – 90 degrees.

Objectives

Make the health and safety of firefighters and the public the highest priority at all times.

Protect identified natural and cultural resource values at risk. Plan and conduct fire management activities that protect identified private/public

resources. Utilize fire to maintain and/or improve healthy, dynamic ecosystems that meet land

management goals.

Course of Action

Notify Forest Heritage Resources Coordinator, Forest Wilderness/Trails Program Manager, and West Fork Outfitter and Guide liaison.

Continue daily monitoring from staffed lookouts, air patrols, and road patrols to record fire activity and growth.

Post fire information signs on NFS trails #705, #89, and at Observation Point. If NFS road #468 is being impacted by smoke, consider posting signs or using road

guards and notify the Nez Perce NF of the potential impacts to the road. Map the fire when significant growth occurs to obtain current size, new growth, and

proximity to boundaries and values at risk. Coordinate with Bitterroot National Forest information officers to develop fire


Point protection and modified suppression tactics to protect values at risk is the current course of action. A long-term plan that is being developed to manage this

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incident with subsequent MAPs addressing key actions/decisions that need to take place as the fire progresses to protect lives, property, structures and other values at risk for the duration of this incident. MAPs will be monitored continually and actions/decisions will be implemented to meet incident objectives and requirements.

Rationale

This fire is currently burning within the Frank Church River of No Return and Selway Bitterroot Wilderness (FCRONR & SBW) areas of a Moderate-High priority due to location to values at risk. This portion of the FCRONR & SBW contains many natural barriers (past fire scars, rock scree slopes, rocky outcroppings and creeks). The current seasonal severity is very high for this time of year. Exposure of firefighting personnel into these area(s) are a concern due to many snags, no adequate safety zones or escape routes, and a high dependence on intensive aviation support for tactical and logistical needs. MAPs being developed to manage this fire using a point protection and modified suppression strategy over the duration of the fire season. The relative risk assessment rating has been modified from moderate to its current rating of high. The fire is being managed under a Type 1 IMT on the West Fork Ranger District of the Bitterroot National Forest. The strategic objectives are being met under the current course of action for this fire.

Risk Assessment


Firefighter and public safety Forest infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle including an outhouse, sign boards, and

hitching rails NFS road #468 which is the only road through the wilderness to Elk City, ID Miscellaneous signs along NFS road #468 Historic Magruder Ranger Station Outfitter Base Camp located at Kim Creek Saddle Paradise Guard Station and campgrounds along Selway River and Magruder/Elk

City Road Hell’s Half Lookout (currently wrapped) and Bare Cone lookout Snotel Site on Nez Perce Pass Grave site near Nez Perce Pass (cultural site) WUI – private structures and property in Nez Perce Creek, West Fork Bitterroot

River, and Painted Rocks area.28 | P a g e


Suitable timberlands and plantations between the wilderness boundary on the north and Painted Rocks reservoir on the south and east.

Miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements Utility lines – power and telephone in Nez Perce Creek and West Fork Bitterroot

River drainages Kim Creek Saddle infrastructure.


The fire is located in a remote wilderness area where the Forest Plan allows for fires to play their natural role. The fire will be a long duration event, therefore, there is a possibility that this fire may spread outside wilderness, to the east, and threaten private land, managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork of the Bitterroot River over the long-term until the season ending event eliminates those threats. Therefore, this fire is being managed under multiple objectives with point protection and modified suppression strategies through a long-term plan.


Fire damaging or loss of any of the above mentioned values before mitigation measures are in place.

Firefighters being trapped or injured while traveling NFS road #468 or while implementing the strategies and tactics necessary to mitigate the fires impacts to the values at risk.

Public being trapped or injured that are within the fire area. Potential for long duration smoke impacts in the Magruder Corridor as well as in the

populated areas of the Nez Perce and West Fork drainages and the Bitterroot Valley. Aviation accidents due to high exposure in mountainous terrain, low altitude flying,

other firefighting aircraft flying in area and windy, hot, weather conditions.


Local FS employees and cooperators that will be directly impacted by the management strategy/objectives chosen to manage the incident: Forest Supervisor, District Ranger, District FMO/AFMO, Wilderness Program Manager, Forest FMO, IC, Forest LEO, Ravalli County Sheriff, Painted Rocks and West Fork Fire Chiefs, County Fire Warden, County Emergency Management Director, County Commissioners (5), State Department of Air Quality (DEQ), Utility Providers (Ravalli County Electric and

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Blackfoot Communications) and potentially impacted private landowners in the planning area.

Risk Decision


Objectives:

Base all of the actions on sound risk management principles making public, firefighter and aviation safety number one priority.

Manage incident operations in a cost effective and efficient manner. Carefully weigh risk versus gain, probability of success, exposure, cost, and impacts to wilderness values at risk. Utilize management actions commensurate with values at risk.

Minimize the fires impact to FS infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half Lookout, and Magruder Ranger Station, improvements along NFS road #468, Paradise Guard Station, and improvements along NFS road #6223.

Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis Form (215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAP’s and the long-term plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10 Standard Firefighting Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and Lookouts Communication Escape routes and Safety zones (LCES) and if the hazard cannot be mitigated, don’t implement the corresponding action. Ensure that Leader’s Intent is clearly communicated and understood, and is based on current factual information.

Provide relevant information to maintain situational awareness at all times. Ensure timely and accurate information is distributed to interested stakeholders.

Emphasize the use of contingency plans and MAPs for managing risk associated with all actions identified in the Incident Action Plan (IAP) and long-term plan.

Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ, Ravalli County (Ravalli County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County Department of Emergency Services (DES), County Road Dept.), Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce Forest, Ravalli County Electric, residents and general public.

Develop and implement, as needed, a long-term plan to manage this as a long duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures for public safety; outfitters/guides operations; Forest Service infrastructure and values; and to prevent fire from reaching private property and private residences in the Nez Perce Creek drainage and West Fork of the Bitterroot. Long-term plan should focus on utilizing a point protection strategy to protect values at risk until the season-ending

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event. Develop MAPs as part of the long-term plan to protect values within the planning area.

Work closely with resource advisors to ensure fire suppression impacts to natural and cultural resources are kept to a minimum.

Support the Bitterroot National Forest IA, as possible and closely coordinate any IA within the Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR).

Strategic and tactical alternatives:

A combination of point protection and modified suppression strategies are being employed on this fire. Because of the potential long duration of this incident, there is a high likelihood that this fire may spread outside wilderness, to the east, due to continuous fuels, lack of tactical opportunities, firefighter safety issues with lack of safety zones and escape routes, and high seasonal severity. Therefore, private land, managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork of the Bitterroot River may be threatened over the long-term until the suppression actions and/or season ending event reduces or eliminates those threats. Point protection and a combination of direct and indirect tactics are being used to delay/slow fire spread or contain portions of the fire. These actions are being developed and identified in MAPs in the long-term plan. The actions identified under the MAPs in the long-term plan will be incorporated into the daily IAP when necessary by the Incident Management organization.


Suppression - Exposure to firefighters and aviation resources implementing holding and delaying tactics is high. There is a potential for safety risks to be transferred from ground resources to the use of aerial resources given the extreme conditions and terrain.

Point Protection Strategy - as with most large/long duration fires there is more exposure to responders. Because values at risk will likely be impacted, it is estimated that various IA modules/crews/engines/road guards to implement protection to values at risk will be exposed to many safety hazards and risks during the implemented actions protecting those values. It is also likely that exposure will be high using aviation resources that will be used for recons to assist in implementing tactics necessary for point protection and containment operations.


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Suppression - Low probability of success due to extreme seasonal conditions as exhibited by ERC levels near the 97th percentile, continuous fuels with no natural barriers, high risk to firefighters because of the lack of safety zones and escape routes.


A long-term plan with MAPs is being developed for the protection of values at risk within a large planning area. Point protection and modified suppression strategies strikes the best balance to protect the values at risk within the planning area. The location and current size of the Gold Pan Fire makes it more complex in that there are values at risk that may be threatened several miles from the current fire perimeter. The burning conditions and the length of fire season ahead make it important to weigh carefully the risk to responders with the probability of success for the strategy. It is desirable to slow the progress of the fire across the Magruder/Elk City road corridor and outside the wilderness to reduce long-term complexity in managing the incident and threats to high values at risk. The actions taken to slow/delay or contain the fire must be safe and effective, thus will first take into account risk to responders before action is initiated.


The fire has a long-term plan that is being developed to assist in managing this incident over the long-term with MAPs established to key actions/decisions that need to take place to protect lives, property, structures, and other values at risk. The MAPs will be monitored continually and actions/decisions will be implemented to meet the objectives of protection of lives, property, structures and other values at risk.

August 04, 2013 - Day 19 of Fire, Day 5 of Poncin’s T1 IMT

Weather

Partly cloudy and windy, 3-7 day, partly cloudy chance of T-storms, temps 50-60/ 80-90 degrees.

Objectives

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Base all actions on sound risk management principles making public, firefighter and aviation safety number one priority. Manage incident operations in a cost effective and efficient manner. Carefully weigh risk versus gain, probability of success, exposure, cost, and impacts to wilderness values. Utilize management actions commensurate with values at risk.

Minimize the fire’s impact to FS infrastructures as identified in the Values Inventory. Protect identified cultural resource values at risk from unacceptable damage from

fire or fire suppression activities. Protect private property and infrastructure by preventing the spread of fire out of

the wilderness and onto private lands. Use fire in the wilderness area to meet land management objectives where fire

spread will not compromise protection objectives.

Course of Action

July 17, 2013 4 Map the fire when significant growth occurs to obtain current size, new growth,



August 4, 2013 4 Post fire information signs at trailheads and access points.4 Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail

closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ, Ravalli County (Ravalli County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County DES, County Road Dept.), Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce NF, Ravalli County Electric, residents and general public.

4 Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis Form (215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAP’s and the long-term plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10 Standard Firefighting Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and LCES and if the hazard cannot be mitigated, don’t implement the corresponding action. Ensure that Leader’s Intent is clearly communicated and understood, and is based on current factual information. Provide relevant information to maintain situational awareness at

33 | P a g e


all times. Ensure timely and accurate information is distributed to interested stakeholders. Emphasize the use of contingency plans and MAPs for managing risk associated with all actions identified in the IAP and long-term plan.

4 Implement, as appropriate under current conditions, the long-term plan to manage this as a long duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures for public safety; outfitters/guides operations; Forest Service infrastructure and values; and to prevent fire from reaching private property and private residences in the Nez Perce Creek drainage and West Fork of the Bitterroot. Long-term plan focuses on utilizing point protection and modified suppression strategies to protect values at risk until the season-ending event. MAP's will be monitored continually and actions/decisions will be implemented to meet incident objectives and requirements. Develop additional MAPs needed to protect values within the planning area. Ensure that the long-term plan and risk assessment products (FSPro, weather outlooks, etc.) are re-evaluated regularly and updated as necessary by qualified personnel (LTAN and/or SOPL).

4 In FMU4 (Wilderness), monitor fire behavior to ensure that fire effects will be consistent with vegetation and habitat objectives, and predicted fire spread will not conflict with protection objectives. Use appropriate strategies to prevent the fire from leaving the wilderness.

4 In FMU1 (WUI), FMU2 (Active Roaded) and FMU3 (Roadless and Unroaded), use point protection and modified suppression strategies to protect values at risk.

Rationale

This fire is currently burning within the FCRONR & SBW areas of a moderate-high priority due to location to values at risk. The western and southern portion of the FCRONR & SBW contains many natural barriers (past fire scars, rock scree slopes, rocky outcroppings and creeks). Heavy, continuous fuels containing high mortality from mountain pine beetle exists to the east of the current fire area across the wilderness boundary down into the Nez Perce Creek drainage. There are no natural barriers to the east of the fire area. The current seasonal severity is very high for this time of year. Exposure of firefighting personnel into these area(s) are a concern due to many snags, no adequate safety zones or escape routes, and a high dependence on intensive aviation support for tactical and logistical needs. MAPs have been developed to manage the fire using point protection and modified suppression strategy over the duration of the fire season. The relative risk assessment rating has been modified from Moderate to its current rating of high. The fire is being managed under a Type 1 IMT on the West Fork Ranger District of

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the Bitterroot National Forest. The strategic objectives are being met under the current course of action for this fire.

Risk Assessment


Firefighter and public safety. Forest infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle including an outhouse, sign boards, and

hitching rails. NFS road #468 which is the only road through the wilderness to Elk City, ID Misc signs along NFS road #468. Historic Magruder Ranger Station. Outfitter Base Camp located at Kim Creek Saddle. Paradise Guard Station and campgrounds along Selway River and Magruder/Elk

City Rd. Hell’s Half Lookout (currently wrapped) and Bare Cone lookout. Snotel Site on Nez Perce Pass. Grave site near Nez Perce Pass (cultural site). WUI – Private structures and property in Nez Perce Creek, West Fork Bitterroot

River, and Painted Rocks area. Suitable timberlands and plantations between the wilderness boundary on the

north and Painted Rocks reservoir on the south and east. Miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements. Utility lines – power and telephone in Nez Perce Creek and West Fork Bitterroot

River drainages.

What is the chance the critical values will be impacted and, if so, what are the consequences?

The fire has impacted Kim Creek Saddle, NFS road #468, Magruder Ranger Station, Outfitter base camp at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half Lookout, Cultural Sites, and some miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements along NFS road #468. Consequences could include potential damage to these values, damage to and/or evacuation of Outfitter Base Camp, potential area/road closure or delays on NFS road #468, increased exposure to firefighters and public based on managing these consequences, and a significant increase in incident costs.

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Because this fire is going to be a long duration fire, it is possible that the fire may impact the Nez Perce Pass area, threaten the WUI in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork Bitterroot River, the suitable timberlands and plantations and other misc. trailheads, bridges, signs, and other improvements. Consequences would include the potential evacuation of the Nez Perce Creek area and West Fork Bitterroot River residents; threaten private structures and property with potential loss, damage timberlands and plantations along with misc. trailhead facilities, bridges, signs and other improvements. There would also be a potential increase in the area closure.


The fire is located in a remote wilderness area where the Forest Plan allows for fires to play their natural role. The fire will be a long duration event, therefore, there is a possibility that this fire may spread outside the wilderness, to the east, and threaten private land, managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork of the Bitterroot River over the long-term until suppression actions and/or the season ending event reduces or eliminates those threats. Therefore, this fire is being managed under multiple objectives with point protection and modified suppression strategies through a long-term plan.



Firefighters being trapped or injured while traveling NFS road #468 or while implementing the strategies and tactics necessary to mitigate the fires impact to the values at risk.

Public being trapped or injured that are within the fire area. Potential for long duration smoke impacts in the Magruder corridor as well as in the


other firefighting aircraft flying in area, and windy, hot weather conditions burns towards and destroys the community of Dixie.


Local FS employees and cooperators that will be directly impacted by the management strategy/objectives chosen to manage the incident: Forest Supervisor, District Ranger, District FMO/AFMO, Wilderness Program Manager, Forest FMO,

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Incident Commander, Forest LEO, Ravalli County Sheriff, Painted Rocks and West Fork Fire Chiefs, County Fire Warden, County Emergency Management Director, County Commissioners (5), State DEQ, Utility Providers (Ravalli County Electric and Blackfoot Communications) and potentially impacted private landowners in the planning area.

Risk Decision




Manage incident operations in a cost effective and efficient manner. Carefully weigh risk versus gain, probability of success, exposure, cost, and impacts to wilderness values. Utilize management actions commensurate with values at risk.

Minimize the fires impact to FS infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half Lookout, and Magruder Ranger Station, improvements along NFS road #468, Paradise Guard Station, and improvements along NFS road #6223.

Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis Form (215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAP’s and the long-term plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10 Standard Firefighting Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and LCES and if the hazard cannot be mitigated, don’t implement the corresponding action. Ensure that Leader’s Intent is clearly communicated and understood, and is based on current factual information.


Emphasize the use of contingency plans and MAPs for managing risk associated with all actions identified in the IAP and long-term plan.

Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ, Ravalli County (Ravalli County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County DES, County Road Dept.), Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce Forest, Ravalli County Electric, residents and general public.

Develop and implement, as needed, a long-term plan to manage this as a long duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures for public safety; outfitters/guides operations; Forest Service infrastructure and values; and to prevent fire from reaching private property and private residences in the Nez Perce Creek drainage and West Fork of the Bitterroot River. Long-term plan should focus

37 | P a g e


on utilizing a point protection strategy to protect values at risk until the season-ending event. Develop MAPs as part of the long-term plan to protect values within the planning area.


Support the Bitterroot National Forest initial attack, as possible and closely coordinate any initial attack within the TFR.

Course of Action alternatives include:

A combination of point protection and modified suppression strategies are being employed on this fire. Because of the potential long duration of this incident, there is a high likelihood that this fire may spread outside wilderness, to the east, due to continuous fuels, lack of tactical opportunities, firefighter safety issues with lack of safety zones and escape routes, and high seasonal severity. Therefore, private land, managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork of the Bitterroot River may be threatened over the long-term until the suppression actions and/or season ending event reduces or eliminates those threats. Point protection and a combination of direct and indirect tactics are being used to delay/slow fire spread or contain portions of the fire. These actions are identified in the MAPs in the long-term plan. The actions identified under the MAPs in the long-term plan will be incorporated into the daily IAP when necessary by the Incident Management organization.


Suppression - Exposure to firefighters and aviation resources implementing holding and delaying tactics is high. There is a potential for safety risks to be transferred from ground resources to the use of aerial resources given the extreme conditions and terrain.

Point Protection Strategy - as with most large/long duration fires there is more exposure to responders. Because values at risk will likely be impacted it is estimated that various IA modules/crews/engines/road guards to implement protection to values at risk. It is also likely that aviation resources will be used for recons to assist in implementing tactics necessary for point protection and containment operations.

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Suppression - Low probability of success due to extreme seasonal conditions as exhibited by ERC levels near the 97th percentile, continuous fuels with no natural barriers, high risk to firefighters because of the lack of safety zones and escape routes.


A long-term plan with MAPs is being developed for the protection of values at risk within a large planning area. Point protection and modified suppression strategies strikes the best balance to protect the values at risk within the planning area. The location and current size of the Gold Pan fire makes it more complex in that there are values at risk that may be threatened several miles from the current fire perimeter. The burning conditions and the length of fire season ahead make it important to weigh carefully the risk to responders with the probability of success for the strategy. It is desirable to slow the progress of the fire across the Magruder/Elk City road corridor and outside the wilderness to reduce long-term complexity in managing the incident and threats to high values at risk. The actions taken to slow/delay or contain the fire must be safe and effective, thus will first take into account risk to responders before action is initiated.


The fire has a long-term plan which has been developed to manage this incident as a long duration fire with MAPs established to key on actions/decisions that need to take place to protect lives, property, structures, and other values at risk. The MAPs will be monitored continually by the incident management organization and actions/decisions will be implemented to meet the objectives of protection of lives, property, structures and other values at risk.

August 17, 2013 - Day 32 of Fire, Diane Hutton’s WFMT

Weather

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Red Flag Warning today, 3-7 day, Haines 6-5, sunny then chance of precip and t-storms, temps 75 – 90 degrees.

Outlook above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

Objectives





spread will not compromise protection objectives. Base all actions on sound risk management principles making public, firefighter and

aviation safety the number one priority.

Course of Action

July 17, 2013

4 Map the fire when significant growth occurs to obtain current size, new growth, and proximity to boundaries and values at risk.

4 Coordinate with Bitterroot National Forest information officers to develop fire information updates for dissemination to all employees, air quality managers, external/cooperating agencies, media, legislative outlets, local communities, adjacent landowners, cooperating and adjoining agency Public Affairs Officers and other interested parties on an as needed basis.

August 4, 2013

4 Post fire information signs at trailheads and access points.4 Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and

area/road/trail closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ, Ravalli County (Ravalli County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County

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DES, Ravalli County Road Dept.), Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce Forest, Ravalli County Electric, residents and general public.

4 Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis Form (215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAP’s and the long-term plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10 Standard Firefighting Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and LCES and if the hazard cannot be mitigated, don’t implement the corresponding action. Ensure that Leader’s Intent is clearly communicated and understood, and is based on current factual information. Provide relevant information to maintain situational awareness at all times. Ensure timely and accurate information is distributed to interested stakeholders. Emphasize the use of contingency plans and MAPs for managing risk associated with all actions identified in the IAP and long-term plan.

4 Implement, as appropriate under current conditions, the long-term plan to manage this as a long duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures for public safety; outfitters/guides operations; FS infrastructure and values; and to prevent fire from reaching private property and private residences in the Nez Perce Creek drainage and West Fork of the Bitterroot River. Long-term plan focuses on utilizing point protection and modified suppression strategies to protect values at risk until the season-ending event. MAPs will be monitored continually and actions/decisions will be implemented to meet incident objectives and requirements. Develop additional MAPs needed to protect values within the planning area. Ensure that the long-term plan and risk assessment products (FSPro, weather outlooks, etc.) are re-evaluated regularly and updated as necessary by qualified personnel (LTAN and/or SOPL).

4 Monitor fire behavior to ensure that fire effects will be consistent with vegetation and habitat objectives, and predicted fire spread will not conflict with protection objectives. Use appropriate strategies to prevent the fire from leaving the wilderness.

4 In Active Roaded and Roadless and Unroaded, use point protection and modified suppression strategies to protect values at risk.

August 17, 2013

4 Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail closures with the Salmon-Challis NF.

Rationale

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There are currently four fires burning within the planning area of this complex within the FCRNR & SBW areas. They are the Gold Pan, Goat Mountain, Nez Peak, and Thirteen fires. The Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires are high priority due to their location to values at risk. The Goat Mountain fire is moderate priority due to its location to values at risk. The Thirteen fire is low priority because of minimal values at risk and recent past large fire activity that will inhibit spread. The western and southern portion of the FCRONR & SBW contains many natural barriers (past fire scars, rock scree slopes, rocky outcroppings and creeks). Heavy, continuous fuels containing high mortality from mountain pine beetle exists to the east of the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fire areas across the wilderness boundary down into the Nez Perce Creek and Blue Joint drainages. There are no natural barriers to the east of the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires. The current seasonal severity is very high for this time of year with current ERC level at the 97th percentile. Exposure of firefighting personnel into these area(s) are of high concern due to many snags, no adequate safety zones or escape routes, extreme burning conditions, and a high dependence on intensive aviation support for tactical and logistical needs. MAPs have been developed for these fires to manage them using point protection and modified suppression strategy over the duration of the fire season. The relative risk assessment rating has a rating of high. The fire is being managed under a Type 2 IMT organization on the West Fork Ranger District of the Bitterroot National Forest. The strategic objectives are being met under the current course of action for this fire.

Risk Assessment



hitching rails (currently wrapped). NFS road #468 which is the only road through the wilderness to Elk City, ID

(Current road and area closure in place). Miscellaneous signs along NFS road #468 (currently wrapped). Historic Magruder Ranger Station (has protection measures completed). Outfitter Base Camp located at Kim Creek Saddle and Salmon Mountain. Paradise Guard Station and campgrounds along Selway River and Magruder/Elk

City Road. Hell’s Half Lookout (currently wrapped), Salmon Mountain Lookout and Bare Cone

Lookout. Snotel Site on Nez Perce Pass (no longer a threat - has been removed).

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Grave site near Nez Perce Pass (cultural site [currently wrapped]). WUI – Private structures and property in Nez Perce Creek, West Fork Bitterroot

River, and Painted Rocks area. (East Side Contingency Plan has been prepared - See reports).


Miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements (most of these improvements [except bridges] have been wrapped).

Utility lines – power and telephone in Nez Perce Creek and West Fork Bitterroot River drainage.

Gold Pan Complex ICP.


The Gold Pan fire has impacted Kim Creek Saddle, NFS road #468, Magruder Ranger Station, Outfitter base camp at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half Lookout, Cultural Sites, and some miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements along NFS road #468. Consequences could include potential damage to these values, damage to and/or evacuation of Outfitter Base Camp, potential area/road closure or delays on NFS road #468, increased exposure to firefighters and public based on managing these consequences, and a significant increase in incident costs.

Because the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires are going to be long duration fires, it is possible that these fires may impact the Nez Perce Pass area, spread outside wilderness threatening the WUI in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork Bitterroot River, the suitable timberlands and plantations and other miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs, and other improvements. Consequences would include the potential evacuation of the Nez Perce Creek area and West Fork Bitterroot River residents; threaten private structures and property with potential loss, damage timberlands and plantations along with miscellaneous trailhead facilities, bridges, signs and other improvements. There would also be a potential increase in the road and area closures.

The chances that the Goat Mountain and Thirteen fires impacting values at risk is low due to their location to the values at risk and presence of recent large fire scars and lack of fuel for fire spread.


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These fires are located in the remote FCRONR & SBW areas where the Forest Plan allows for fires to play their natural role. The fires will be a long duration events, therefore, there is a possibility that two of these fires, the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires, may spread outside wilderness, to the east, and threaten private land, managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork of the Bitterroot River over the long-term until suppression actions and/or the season ending-fire slowing events reduce or eliminate those threats. Therefore, these fires are being managed under multiple objectives with point protection and modified suppression strategies through a long-term plan.



Firefighters being trapped or injured while traveling forest NFS road #468 or while implementing the strategies and tactics necessary to mitigate the fires impacts to the values at risk.



other firefighting aircraft flying in area and windy, hot, weather conditions.Who are the stakeholders that should be consulted prior to making a decision?

Local FS employees and cooperators that will be directly impacted by the management strategy/objectives chosen to manage the incident: Bitterroot Forest Supervisor, West Fork District Ranger, District FMO/AFMO, Wilderness Program Manager, Bitterroot Forest FMO, Red River Ranger District on the Nez Perce National Forest, North Fork Ranger District on the Salmon-Challis National Forest, Incident Commander, Forest LEO, Ravalli County Sheriff, Painted Rocks and West Fork Fire Chiefs, County Fire Warden, County Emergency Management Director, County Commissioners (5), State DEQ, Utility Providers (Ravalli County Electric and Blackfoot Communications) and potentially impacted private landowners in the planning area.

Risk Decision



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Minimize the fires impact to FS infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half and Salmon Mountain Lookouts, and Magruder Ranger Station, improvements along NFS road #468, Paradise Guard Station, and improvements along NFS road #6223.

Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis Form (215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAP’s and the long-term plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10 Standard Firefighting Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and LCES and if the hazard cannot be mitigated, don’t implement the corresponding action. Ensure that Leader’s Intent is clearly communicated and understood, and is based on current factual information.



Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ, Ravalli County (Ravalli County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County DES, County Road Dept.), Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce Forest, Salmon Challis Forest, Ravalli County Electric, residents and general public.

Develop and implement, as needed, a long-term plan to manage this as a long duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures for public safety; outfitters/guides operations; FS infrastructure and values; and to prevent fire from reaching private property and private residences in the Nez Perce Creek drainage and West Fork of the Bitterroot. Long-term plan should focus on utilizing a point protection strategy to protect values at risk until the season-ending event. Develop MAPs as part of the long-term plan to protect values within the planning area.


Support the Bitterroot National Forest initial attack, as possible and closely coordinate any initial attack within the TFR.

Strategic and tactical alternatives include:

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All fires within the complex are being managed for multiple objectives with point protection and/or modified suppression strategies. Because these fires will be of long duration there is a high likelihood that the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires may spread outside the wilderness, to the east, due to continuous fuels, a high component of standing dead and dying timber from bark beetle activity, lack of tactical opportunities, firefighter safety issues with lack of safety zones and escape routes, and high seasonal severity. Therefore, private land, managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork of the Bitterroot River may be threatened over the long-term until the suppression actions and/or fire slowing/season ending events reduce or eliminate those threats. Point protection and a combination of direct and indirect tactics are being used to delay/slow fire spread or contain portions of the fire. These actions are identified in the MAPs in the long-term plan. The actions identified under the MAPs in the long-term plan will be incorporated into the daily IAP when necessary by the Incident Management Organization. Numerous actions identified in the long-term plan addressed within the MAPs have been implemented even though these fires have not reached those MAPs. This has essentially provided the adequate preparation and protection of values at risk in anticipation of these fires crossing those MAPs given the high seasonal severity.


Suppression - Exposure to firefighters and aviation resources implementing holding and delaying tactics is high, particularly on the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires. There is a potential for safety risks to be transferred from ground resources to the use of aerial resources given the extreme conditions and terrain.



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Protection strategies of Point Protection and Modified Suppression - Low probability of success on the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires due to extreme seasonal conditions as exhibited by ERC levels near the 97th percentile, continuous fuels with no natural barriers, a high component of standing dead and dying timber from bark beetle activity, high risk to firefighters because of the lack of safety zones and escape routes.


A long-term plan with MAPs has been developed for the protection of values at risk within a large planning area. Point protection and modified suppression strategies strikes the best balance to protect the values at risk within the planning area. The location and current size of the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires make it more complex in that there are values at risk that may be threatened several miles from the current fire perimeters. The burning conditions and the length of fire season ahead make it important to weigh carefully the risk to responders with the probability of success for the strategy. It is desirable to slow the progress of the fire across the Magruder/Elk City road corridor and outside the wilderness to reduce long-term complexity in managing the incidents and threats to high values at risk. The actions taken to slow/delay or contain the fire must be safe and effective, thus will first take into account risk to responders before action is initiated. The Goat Mountain and Thirteen fires will remain in monitoring status unless they become active and breach a MAP that requires some action to protect values at risk.


The Gold Pan Complex has a long-term plan that has been developed to manage these incidents as long duration fires with MAPs established addressing actions/decisions that need to take place to protect lives, property, structures, and other values at risk and coordinate with local RFDs, County officials, and other cooperators/partners/shareholders. The MAPs will be monitored continually by the incident management organization and actions/decisions will be implemented to meet the objectives of protection of lives, property, structures and other values at risk. The MAPs will be incorporated into the daily IAPs.

August 19, 2013 - Day 34 of Fire, Day 2 of Turman’s T1 IMT

Weather

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Haines 4, 3-7 day, partly cloudy with slight chance of rain showers temps 50-60, 75-90 degrees.

Objectives





spread will not compromise protection objectives. Base all actions on sound risk management principles making public, firefighter and

aviation safety number one priority.

Course of Action

July 17, 2013 4 Map the fire when significant growth occurs to obtain current size, new growth,



August 4, 2013 4 Post fire information signs at trailheads and access points.4 Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail

closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ, Ravalli County (Ravalli County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County DES, County Road

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Dept.), Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce Forest, Ravalli County Electric, residents and general public.

4 Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis Form (215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAP’s and the long-term plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10 Standard Firefighting Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and LCES and if the hazard cannot be mitigated, don’t implement the corresponding action. Ensure that Leader’s Intent is clearly communicated and understood, and is based on current factual information. Provide relevant information to maintain situational awareness at all times. Ensure timely and accurate information is distributed to interested stakeholders. Emphasize the use of contingency plans and MAPs for managing risk associated with all actions identified in the IAP and long-term plan.

4 Implement, as appropriate under current conditions, the long-term plan to manage this as a long duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures for public safety; outfitters/guides operations; FS infrastructure and values; and to prevent fire from reaching private property and private residences in the Nez Perce Creek drainage and West Fork of the Bitterroot River. Long-term plan focuses on utilizing point protection and modified suppression strategies to protect values at risk until the season-ending event. MAPs will be monitored continually and actions/decisions will be implemented to meet incident objectives and requirements. Develop additional MAPs needed to protect values within the planning area. Ensure that the long-term plan and risk assessment products (FSPro, weather outlooks, etc.) are re-evaluated regularly and updated as necessary by qualified personnel (LTAN and/or SOPL).

4 In FMU4 (Wilderness), monitor fire behavior to ensure that fire effects will be consistent with vegetation and habitat objectives, and predicted fire spread will not conflict with protection objectives. Use appropriate strategies to prevent the fire from leaving the wilderness.

4 In FMU1 (Wildland Urban Interface), FMU2 (Active Roaded) and FMU3 (Roadless and Unroaded), use point protection and modified suppression strategies to protect values at risk.

August 17, 2013

4 Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail closures with the Salmon-Challis National Forest.

Rationale

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There are currently four fires burning within the planning area of this complex within the FCRNR & SBW areas. They are the Gold Pan, Goat, Nez Peak, and Thirteen fires. The Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires are high priority due to their location to values at risk that are located in the direction of the prevailing wind, to the east of these fires. The Goat Mountain fire is moderate priority due to its location to values at risk. The Thirteen fire is low priority because of minimal values at risk and recent past large fire activity that will inhibit spread. The western and southern portion of the FCRONR & SBW contains many natural barriers (past recent fire scars, rock scree slopes, rocky outcroppings and creeks). Heavy, continuous fuels containing high mortality from mountain pine beetle exists to the east of the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fire areas across the wilderness boundary down into the Nez Perce Creek, Blue Joint Creek, and West Fork of the Bitterroot River drainages. Private land, residences and other values are located in these two drainages. There are no natural barriers to the east of the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires. The current seasonal severity is very high for this time of year with current ERC level at the 97th percentile. Exposure of firefighting personnel into these area(s) are of high concern due to many snags, no adequate safety zones or escape routes, extreme burning conditions, and a high dependence on intensive aviation support for tactical and logistical needs. MAPs have been developed to manage the fires using a point protection and modified suppression strategy over the duration of the fire season. The relative risk assessment rating has a rating of high. The fire is being managed under a Type 1 IMT organization on the West Fork Ranger District of the Bitterroot National Forest. The strategic objectives are being met under the current course of action for this fire.

Risk Assessment



hitching rails (currently wrapped). NFS road #468 which is the only road through the wilderness to Elk City, ID

(Current road and area closure in place). Miscellaneous signs along NFS road #468 (currently wrapped). Historic Magruder Ranger Station (has protection measures completed). Outfitter Base Camp located at Kim Creek Saddle and Salmon Mountain. Paradise Guard Station and campgrounds along Selway River and Magruder/Elk

City Road.

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Hell’s Half Lookout (currently wrapped), Salmon Mountain Lookout and Bare Cone Lookout.

Snotel Site on Nez Perce Pass (no longer a threat - has been removed). Grave site near Nez Perce Pass (cultural site [currently wrapped]). WUI – Private structures and property in Nez Perce Creek, West Fork Bitterroot

River, and Painted Rocks area. (East Side Contingency Plan has been prepared - See reports).


Miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements (most of these improvements [except bridges] have been wrapped).

Utility lines – power and telephone in Nez Perce Creek and West Fork Bitterroot River drainage.

Gold Pan Complex ICP (Plan in place to relocate ICP).


The Gold Pan fire has impacted Kim Creek Saddle, NFS road #468, Magruder Ranger Station, Outfitter base camp at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half Lookout, Cultural Sites, and some miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements along NFS road #468. Consequences could include potential damage to these values, damage to and/or evacuation of Outfitter Base Camp, potential area/road closure or delays on NFS road #468, increased exposure to firefighters and public based on managing these consequences, and a significant increase in incident costs.

Because the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires are going to be long duration fires, it is possible that these fires may impact the Nez Perce Pass area, spread outside wilderness threatening the WUI in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork Bitterroot River, the suitable timberlands and plantations and other miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs, and other improvements. Consequences would include the potential evacuation of the Nez Perce Creek area and West Fork Bitterroot River residents; threaten private structures and property with potential loss, damage timberlands and plantations along with miscellaneous trailhead facilities, bridges, signs and other improvements. There would also be a potential increase in the road and area closures.

The chances that the Goat Mountain and Thirteen fires impacting values at risk is Low due to their location to the values at risk and presence of recent large fire scars and lack of fuel for fire spread.

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These fires are located in the remote FCRONR & SBW areas where the Forest Plan allows for fires to play their natural role. The fires will be long duration events, therefore, there is a possibility that two of these fires, the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires, may spread outside the wilderness, to the east, and threaten private land, managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork of the Bitterroot River over the long-term until suppression actions and/or the season ending-fire slowing events reduce or eliminate those threats. Therefore, these fires are being managed under multiple objectives with point protection and modified suppression strategies through a long-term plan.



Firefighters being trapped or injured while traveling forest NFS road #468 or while implementing the strategies and tactics necessary to mitigate the fires impacts to the values at risk.



other firefighting aircraft flying in the area and windy, hot weather conditions.


Local FS employees and cooperators that will be directly impacted by the management strategy/objectives chosen to manage the incident: Bitterroot Forest Supervisor, West Fork District Ranger, District FMO/AFMO, Wilderness Program Manager, Bitterroot Forest FMO, Red River Ranger District on the Nez Perce National Forest, North Fork Ranger District on the Salmon-Challis National Forest, Incident Commander, Forest LEO, Ravalli County Sheriff, Painted Rocks and West Fork Fire Chiefs, County Fire Warden, County Emergency Management Director, County Commissioners (5), State DEQ, Utility Providers (Ravalli County Electric and Blackfoot Communications) and potentially impacted private landowners in the planning area.

Risk Decision

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Minimize the fires impact to FS infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half and Salmon Mountain Lookouts, and Magruder Ranger Station, improvements along NFS road #468, Paradise Guard Station, and improvements along NFS road #6223.

Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis Form (215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAPs and the long-term plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10 Standard Firefighting Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and LCES and if the hazard cannot be mitigated, don’t implement the corresponding action. Ensure that Leader’s Intent is clearly communicated and understood, and is based on current factual information.



Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ, Ravalli County (Ravalli County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County DES, County Road Dept.), Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce Forest, Salmon Challis Forest, Ravalli County Electric, residents and general public.

Develop and implement, as needed, a long-term plan to manage this as a long duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures for public safety; outfitters/guides operations; Forest Service infrastructure and values; and to prevent fire from reaching private property and private residences in the Nez Perce Creek drainage and West Fork of the Bitterroot River. Long-term plan should focus on utilizing point protection strategy to protect values at risk until the season ending event. Develop MAPs as part of the long-term plan to protect values within the planning area.


Support the Bitterroot National Forest initial attack, as much as possible and closely coordinate any initial attack within the TFR.

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Course of Action alternatives include:

All fires within the complex are being managed for multiple objectives with point protection and/or modified suppression strategies. Because these fires will be of long duration there is a high likelihood that the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires may spread outside the wilderness, to the east, due to continuous fuels, a high component of standing dead and dying timber from bark beetle activity, lack of tactical opportunities, firefighter safety issues with lack of safety zones and escape routes, and high seasonal severity. Therefore, private land, managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork of the Bitterroot River may be threatened over the long-term until the suppression actions and/or fire slowing/season ending events reduce or eliminate those threats. Point protection and a combination of direct and indirect tactics are being used to delay/slow fire spread or contain portions of the fire. These actions are identified in the MAPs in the long-term plan. The actions identified under the MAPs in the long-term plan will be incorporated into the daily IAP when necessary by the Incident Management organization. Numerous actions identified in the long-term plan addressed within the MAPs have been implemented even though these fires have not reached those MAPs. This has essentially provided the adequate preparation and protection of values at risk in anticipation of these fires crossing those MAPs given the high seasonal severity.


Suppression - Exposure to firefighters and aviation resources implementing holding and delaying tactics is high, particularly on the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires. There is a potential for safety risks to be transferred from ground resources to the use of aerial resources given the extreme conditions and terrain.



54 | P a g e


Protection strategies of Point Protection and Modified Suppression - Low probability of success on the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires due to extreme seasonal conditions as exhibited by ERC levels near the 97th percentile, continuous fuels with no natural barriers, a high component of standing dead and dying timber from bark beetle activity, high risk to firefighters because of the lack of safety zones and escape routes.


A long-term plan with MAPs has been developed for the protection of values at risk within a large planning area. Point protection and modified suppression strategies strikes the best balance to protect the values at risk within the planning area. The location and current size of the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires make it more complex in that there are values at risk that may be threatened several miles from the current fire perimeters. The burning conditions and the length of fire season ahead make it important to weigh carefully the risk to responders with the probability of success for the strategy. It is desirable to slow the progress of the fire across the Magruder/Elk City road corridor and outside the wilderness to reduce long-term complexity in managing the incidents and threats to high values at risk. The actions taken to slow/delay or contain the fire must be safe and effective, thus will first take into account risk to responders before action is initiated. The Goat Mountain and Thirteen fires will remain in monitoring status unless they become active and breach a MAP that requires some action to protect values at risk.


The Gold Pan Complex has a long-term plan that has been developed to manage these incidents as long duration fires with MAPs established addressing actions/decisions that need to take place to protect lives, property, structures, and other values at risk and coordinate with local RFD's, County officials, and other cooperator’s/partners/shareholders. The MAPs will be monitored continually by the incident management organization and actions/decisions will be implemented to meet the objectives of protection of lives, property, structures and other values at risk. The MAPs will be incorporated into the daily IAPs.

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Incident Overview 7/16/2013

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Gold Pan Cost Appendices Activity Date CAMP

PERSONNELCAMP SUPPORT

AIRCRAFT CREWS EQUIPMENT LINE PERSONNEL

Grand Total

07/26/2013 $1,524 $1 $7,774 $7,030 $1,348 $17,67607/27/2013 $22,306 $28,522 $20,963 $22,363 $4,448 $5,837 $104,43907/28/2013 $26,866 $68,837 $20,434 $39,878 $3,487 $7,649 $167,15107/29/2013 $48,559 $87,449 $45,774 $45,995 $7,214 $26,427 $261,41907/30/2013 $72,344 $99,811 $57,764 $59,277 $18,410 $34,755 $342,36207/31/2013 $78,785 $86,503 $83,115 $68,945 $30,767 $39,765 $387,88008/01/2013 $79,036 $79,945 $60,997 $78,295 $34,434 $40,320 $373,02808/02/2013 $78,160 $88,862 $73,875 $94,174 $42,860 $43,717 $421,64708/03/2013 $76,112 $97,940 $99,990 $104,551 $44,668 $43,619 $466,87908/04/2013 $75,818 $93,605 $85,255 $108,998 $47,958 $42,111 $453,74508/05/2013 $77,547 $84,431 $108,218 $116,488 $43,731 $39,754 $470,16808/06/2013 $73,027 $98,970 $125,538 $123,531 $42,080 $35,499 $498,64508/07/2013 $70,017 $86,583 $111,289 $125,898 $36,520 $35,239 $465,54608/08/2013 $67,673 $84,932 $98,752 $126,215 $44,274 $35,035 $456,87908/09/2013 $66,168 $75,337 $62,291 $109,563 $47,688 $33,933 $394,98008/10/2013 $62,236 $73,716 $42,748 $96,719 $29,610 $32,339 $337,36708/11/2013 $69,326 $84,634 $22,614 $74,194 $28,454 $31,292 $310,51208/12/2013 $68,960 $90,386 $23,633 $51,681 $15,274 $25,662 $275,59508/13/2013 $66,959 $68,105 $22,431 $53,436 $15,652 $19,925 $246,50808/14/2013 $47,812 $48,603 $43,225 $51,025 $16,230 $13,088 $219,98308/15/2013 $35,285 $53,133 $67,079 $63,785 $15,944 $12,178 $247,40408/16/2013 $46,686 $59,651 $31,730 $61,092 $52,311 $21,864 $273,33408/17/2013 $62,989 $105,623 $26,839 $47,994 $55,816 $30,685 $329,94508/18/2013 $71,508 $62,421 $20,011 $40,748 $56,104 $30,912 $281,70408/19/2013 $70,217 $45,925 $14,783 $40,229 $59,314 $28,751 $259,21908/20/2013 $63,007 $53,258 $24,796 $40,229 $60,787 $25,112 $267,19008/21/2013 $61,496 $65,938 $24,051 $27,020 $58,732 $25,122 $262,35808/22/2013 $57,539 $48,367 $17,279 $26,560 $59,892 $22,986 $232,62208/23/2013 $57,325 $50,527 $32,017 $26,560 $64,374 $23,355 $254,15808/24/2013 $55,776 $73,232 $25,253 $26,301 $65,031 $24,188 $269,78108/25/2013 $54,594 $49,898 $25,042 $26,301 $61,394 $24,848 $242,07608/26/2013 $47,728 $51,500 $29,978 $26,301 $61,349 $26,712 $243,56608/27/2013 $47,979 $48,588 $18,219 $13,997 $58,250 $25,566 $212,59808/28/2013 $45,499 $47,538 $21,364 $13,997 $57,375 $25,089 $210,86108/29/2013 $44,476 $42,623 $15,673 $15,941 $57,323 $25,518 $201,55308/30/2013 $45,716 $53,019 $25,654 $2,072 $61,877 $25,475 $213,81208/31/2013 $45,630 $48,159 $3,468 $46,222 $22,409 $165,887

Grand Total $2,142,684 $2,486,567 $1,639,909

$2,057,383

$1,505,850 $1,008,085

$10,840,478

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Total Cost as of 8/31/2013 $10,868,589

07/26/2013

07/28/2013

07/30/2013

08/01/2013

08/03/2013

08/05/2013

08/07/2013

08/09/2013

08/11/2013

08/13/2013

08/15/2013

08/17/2013

08/19/2013

08/21/2013

08/23/2013

08/25/2013

08/27/2013

08/29/2013

08/31/2013$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

CAMP PERSONNEL CAMP SUPPORT AIRCRAFTCREWS EQUIPMENT LINE PERSONNEL

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Camp Personnel19.8% Camp Support 22.7% Aircraft 15.0% Crews19.5% Equipment13.7% Line Personnel9.3%

Documents

Gold Pan Fire Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review Bitterroot