GOPB Long Term Projections:An Overview of the UPED Process

Prepared for:

Wasatch Front Regional Council

Socioeconomic Projections Working Group

February 23, 2000

Contact Information

• Pam Perlich (801) 538-1537 pperlich@gov.state.ut.us

• Ross Reeve (801) 538-1545 rreeeve@gov.state.ut.us

• Web Site: www.qget.state.ut.us/projections

Today’s Presentation • Relations between major planning

models– UPED is regional– WFRC

• sub-regional• feedback / constraints / allocation to UCAPE

• Overview the UPED model

• Assumptions driving the regional results

Planning Models

Regional Economic /

Demographic

Projection Model

GOPBGeographic

Information System

AGRC

Water

Supply/Demand

Model

DWR

Transportation

Planning Models

MPOs, UDOT

Air Quality Models

DAQ

Small Area Allocation Models

MPOs, AOGs

Utah Process Economic & Demographic Model (UPED)

Economic Base Model

Economic Base Model

Cohort Component Model

Cohort Component Model

Integrated Regional Economic and Demographic Projections

Integrated Regional Economic and Demographic Projections

Economic Base Model

Regional Growth of the

Export Sector

Regional Growth of the

Export Sector

Regional Growth of:Residentiary SectorResident Population

Regional Growth of:Residentiary SectorResident Population

Cohort Component Model

Beginning Population

Plus Births

Minus Out-Migrants

Minus Deaths

Plus In-Migrants

Ending Population

UPED Model General Flowchart

Population in Year t-1

Age & Survive; Births & Non- Employment Related In-Migration

Adjusted Natural Increase Population

Non-Employment Related Out-Migration & Employment Related Net In-Migration in Year t

Population in Year t

Labor Market

Population Dependent Job

Opportunities in Year t

Labor Force in Year t

Total Job Opportunities in Year t

Basic Job Opportunities in Year t

Recursive

IterativeDirect Model Components

Inputs & Outputs

UPED Employment

Production for Regional Consumption

Direct & Indirect

Production for Export

Direct & Indirect

Residentiary Employment

(REDi)

Total Employment (TEDi)

Basic Employment (BEDi)

Permanent Basic

Employment (BEDPi)

Temporary Basic

Employment (BEDTi)

Change in Permanent Basic

For Event or Impact

(BEDPACi or BEDCACi)

Growth Rate of Permanent Basic For Baseline

(BEDPGi or BEDPGRi)

= If Baseline

Economic Growth Projections

• Employment growth is the driver of the long run population path in the UPED model.

• These employment projections combine “top down” and “bottom up” methods.

Long Term Employment Growth

17%

83%

0%

20%

40%60%

80%

100%

Shares ofPopulation

Change

Natural IncreaseNet In-Migration

• Net in-migration contributed 17% of population increase from 1948 - 1998.

• Long term employment growth is sufficient to generate the same relative component contributions for 1999 - 2050.

Short Term Employment Growth

• State level major industry employment for 1999 through 2004 is controlled to the results of the state’s short term models.

• The results of the GOPB Olympic impact study are included.

Employment Projections

• Firm and industry specific assumptions have been produced by analysts at – Workforce Information, DWS– Associations of Government– Metropolitan Planning Organizations– Department of Natural Resources– Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget

Industry Assumptions• Coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and petroleum

and coal manufacturing are produced by analysts in Department of Natural Resources.

• Construction has been modeled separately and converges to its historical mean share of employment in each region.

• Some industries are not treated as special cases. The employment in these is generated by the model by maintaining relative differences with the national projection series.

Firms with Specific Assumptions:Wasatch Front Region

ALLIANT TECHSYSTEMS GULL LABORATORIES REESE BROTHERS INC.AMERICAN STORES HILL AFB RITE AIDAMX INTERNATIONAL HUNTSMAN CANCER INSTITITE SELECT COMFORT RETAIL GROUPBUREAU OF THE CENSUS INTEL INTERNATIONAL SPECIALIZED BICYCLE COMPONENTSCALDERA INTERNATIONAL HOME FOODS INC STERLING TRUCKCOMMUNICATION & COMMERCE IOMEGA CORPORATION SUMMERPLACECORNELL CORRECTIONS INC JET BLUE AIRWAYS SYSCOCOSTCO KENNECOTT TARTAN TEXTILESDANA CORPORATION MARKETSTAR CORPORATION THERATECHDAW TECHNOLOGIES MICROPOINT INC. U.S. WESTDICK SIMON TRUCKING NORDSTROMS UTAH RELAYEAGLE OPG PACIFICORP UTILITY TRAILER MANUFACTURINGEBAY INC PACKARD BELL NEC INC WATKINS MOTOR LINES INCFIRST USA PAGENET WINAIR INCFRANKLIN COVEY PENCO PRODUCTS INC YANKEE CANDLE CO.GARDENBURGER INC PIPER IMPACT ZCMIGATEWAY 2000 INC PULP MOLD PACKAGING ZIONS BANK/FIRST SECURITY MERGER

QUANEX CORP

Industries with Specific Assumptions

General Construction All Regions

Heavy Construction All Regions

Special Trade Construction All Regions

Coal Mining (from DNR) Central and Southeast Regions

Oil & Gas Mining (from DNR) Uintah Basin and Southeast Regions

Petroleum Refining & Coal Products (from DNR) Wasatch Front

Metal Mining Wasatch Front

Primary Metals Wasatch Front & Mountainland

Electric, Gas, & Sanitary Central, Uintah Basin, Southeast

Private Education Mountainland

Federal Defense All Regions

Olympic Employment Impacts

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Construction Manufacturing TCU Trade

FIRE Services Government Non-Farm Prop

Total State Employment and Population

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Population Total Employment

2,290,819

3,683,687

Total Population Annual Growth Rates

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

State of Utah Wasatch Front

State Components of Population Change

-15,000

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028

Residual Migration Natural Increase

State Annual Growth Rates: Non-Ag Payroll Employment

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Annual Growth Rates: Wasatch Front Employment 1980 - 2030

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing TCPU Trade

FIRE Services Government NFP Total

Industry Employment as a Share of Total WF Employment

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Trade

Government

Services

Manufacturing

NFP

TCPU

Construction

FIRE

Mining

Agriculture

Location Quotients: WF Relative to US 1980 - 2030

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

TCPU

NFP

Construction

FIRE

Government

Trade

Services

Manufacturing

Mining

Agriculture

Region’s Share of State Population

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Wasatch Front MCD

Mountainland MCD

Bear River MCD

Southwest MCD

Central MCD

Southeast MCD

Uintah Basin MCD

Region’s Hachman Index Relative to the Nation

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Wasatch Front MCD Mountainland MCD Bear River MCD Southwest MCD

Central MCD Uintah Basin MCD Southeast MCD

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1999 2009 2019 2029

Southwest MCD

Mountainland MCD

Wasatch Front MCD

Bear River MCD

Central MCD

Uintah Basin MCD

Southeast MCD

Region’s Population Growth Rate From Base (1998) Year

Fertility Assumption

• Hold fertility constant at 1998 rates

• 1998 rate for Utah was 2.6

• 1998 rate for the U.S. was 2.0

Historical and Projected Total Fertility Rates for Utah and the U.S.

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1917 1927 1937 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

US UTAH

Survival Assumption

• Maintain mean difference in life expectancy observed in 1970, 1980, and 1990 over projection interval.

• The projected US series is Census middle series.

Life Expectancy at Birth: Utah vs. US

65

70

75

80

85

90

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Utah Male U.S.Male Utah Female U.S.Female

Labor Force Participation Rate Assumption

• Maintain relative differences with US projected series.

Utah Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group: 1990 & 2020 Medium LFPR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

16-17

18-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-61

62-64

65-69

70-74

75+

Male 1990 Male 2020 Female 1990 Female 2020

Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group: 1990 For Utah & US

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

16-17

18-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-61

62-64

65-69

70-74

75+

Utah Male US Male Utah Female US Female

Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group: 2020 for Utah & US

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

16-17

18-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-61

62-64

65-69

70-74

75+

Utah Male US Male Utah Female US Female

Utah & US Births: 1930-1998

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

US Utah

US Baby Boom:

1946-1964

250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000

0- 4

5- 9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+ Male Female

250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000

0- 4

5- 9

14-O ct

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+Male Female

Utah: 1990 Base Case: 2050

Utah Dependency Ratios: 1970 - 2050

7666 67

55 54 54 54 55 56

1413 16

14 14 19 24 25 28

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

<18 DR 65+ DR9079 80 8482

70 6873 77

US Dependency Ratios: 1970 - 2050

6146 42 42 39 40 43 43 44

18

19 20 21 2128

36 37 36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

<18 DR 65+ DR79

6580 80

62 63 6068

79