Group Assignment Part 1 by UN-10

8/6/2019 Group Assignment Part 1 by UN-10

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Group UN10

Dated: 15TH

April, 2011

SUBMITTED TO

TED TOOHER

STUDENTS NAME - IDABBAS AL-GHURABI-3340793

MUHAMMAD TAHA ZIA-3336022

KHUSBOO LALL-3315437

SOHAIB AHMED-3309151

THANG DOAN-3316204

WILLIAM SURYADI -3339765

ATIF NAVEED-333333

MUHAMMAD DHARIWAL-3346422

SPIRO SARKIS -333333MUHAMMAD MANSOOR ARIF-3297063

CVEN9718 | STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT


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GROUP UN10 April 15, 2011

Group Assignment Part (1) 1

Abstract:

This assignment is a group oriented assignment. It may enable our team to practice

application of tools and techniques described in the lectures and tutorials. In this report

a megatrend is selected initially then analysed to establish several key areas using

affinity diagram. For each key area scenario is identified followed by the thorough

analysis and prioritize the risks and opportunities associated with those scenarios.

Thereafter, a response plan is proposed for each of the high priority risks/opportunities

then a maturity model and system model is presented. Further reinforcing and

balancing functions are identified. For balancing functions strategies that can leverage

our organization are indicated. Finally there is a summary report on the strategic plan is

discussed and how these will be monitored over the next 5 years.


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Index

Introduction..................................................................................... .......................3

Megatrend..................................................................................... .........................3Affinity Diagram......................................................................................................5

Key Result Areas............................................................. .........................................6

Scenarios...................................................................................... ...........................6

Risk and Opportunity Analysis..................................................................................10

Maturity Model.........................................................................................................11

Performance Testing.................................................................................................12

System Model...........................................................................................................12

Reinforcing/Balancing Function................................................................................13

Ranking of KRAs to use as an economic model........................................................14

Strategic Plan............................................................................................................14SWOT Analysis..........................................................................................................16


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Introduction:

Modern technologies for manipulating the genetic structures of plants and animals

offer the prospect of more rapid rates of productivity growth in global agricultural

production systems. However, these gene technologies have also raised concernsamong some consumers on environmental and food safety grounds.

To date, the most important commercialized GM crops have been grains, specifically

canola (rapeseed), corn (maize), cotton and soybeans. Because some consumers still

have doubts about the environmental effects and safety of consuming GM crops,

markets have arisen for products that are certified to be non-GM in nature.

GM is an important new opportunity for markets that would contribute to lowering

crop production costs, increasing productivity, provide a safer environment and a more

sustainable system for ensuring global food, feed and fiber security.

However, we are a Genetically Modified Food (GMF) organization that plans to utilize

the great potential in the food market to create a new opportunity that our company

could develop its business through it. For that purpose set of proper tools, specific key

result area and right performance indicators shall be identified and agreed upon.

The aims in this paper are: Firstly, to describe the nature of the new trend of

genetically modified food that recently introduced in the world markets. Then analyze

risks and opportunities that are presented in this field over the next 20 years.

Additionally, evaluate the system component and identify enforcing and dumping

factors that the system may be trough during the next five years, and studying the

balancing forces to control these factors. Finally, outline strategic plans to set out our

organization actions and to define our targets to supply service to the market are

presented.

Mega TrendGenetically Modified Products:

The term GM foods or GMOs (genetically-modified organisms) is most commonly used

to refer to crop plants created for human or animal consumption using the latest

molecular biology techniques. These plants have been modified in the laboratory to

enhance desired traits such as increased resistance to herbicides or improved

nutritional content.

There has been rapid adoption of GM technology, grains for example, throughout the

world (figure a). Of world crop areas harvested in 2009, GM varieties made up an

estimated 19 per cent of canola; 21 per cent of corn; 52 per cent of cotton; and 63 per


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cent of soybeans. The European Union has only a small adoption of GM corn, while India

and China have adopted GM cotton but not any GM varieties of food grains.

World export markets for grains for which there are GM variants are dominated by GM

grains producing countries (figure b). This is particularly the case with soybeans, where

countries producing GM soybeans supplied around 98 per cent of world exports of

soybeans over the five years to 2009, 88 per cent of soybean meal and 90 per cent of

soy oil.

The data reported in (figure b) state the shares of GM and non GM grains exported

worldwide, there are significant exports of grain from countries that adopted GM

systems. (Foster, 2010)

World export markets for grains for which there are GM variants are dominated by GM

grains producing countries (figure b). This is particularly the case with soybeans, where

countries producing GM

soybeans suppliedaround 98 per cent of

world exports of

soybeans over the five

years to 2009, 88 per

cent of soybean meal

and 90 per cent of soy

oil.

The data reported in

(figure b) state the

shares of GM and nonGM grains exported

worldwide, there are

significant exports of

grain from countries that adopted GM systems (Foster, 2010). The lag between

commercialization of GM grain varieties in the producing country and import approval in

consuming countries has been an issue in world grain trade. This is particularly the case


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in the European Union where its approval process was successfully challenged by the

United States in 2006 under World Trade Organization rules.

Affinity Diagram:

The Affinity process is a good way to get people to work on a creative level to addressdifficult issues. It may be used in situations that are unknown or unexplored by a team,

or in circumstances that seem confusing or disorganized, such as when people with

diverse experiences form a new team, or when members have incomplete knowledge of

the area of analysis. Affinity diagram is very helpful for sift through large volumes of

data and encourage new patterns of thinking.

We, as a group, used the affinity diagram to process the information we had on

megatrend, genetically modified food, to come up with key result areas and the risk and

opportunities associated with them.


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Key Result Areas (KRAs):

Using the affinity diagram the group came up with following KRAs.

Scenarios:

Food Speculation by UNO (Fact and Figures):

The global food production has to be increased by 35% by the next 20 years.

United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that amount of

increase in worlds food production to keep the world fed. Todays population is

estimated to be around 6.9 Billionand in 20 years from now, the worlds population is

expected to be around 8.2 billion. It is growing at 78 million people per year (World

Population Prospects, UN-Department of Economic and Social Affairs). Out of those 6.9billion people, 925 million people are living under-nourshed and 65 % of them are living

in these countries (India, China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bangladesh,

Indonesia, Pakistan and Ethiopia); while mostly all of them will constitute half of the

worlds population in 2050. (World Food Progamme, www.wfp.org).
http://www.wfp.org/http://www.wfp.org/


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This trend poses a serious problem on Earths ability to sustain its ever-increasing

number of inhabitants in terms of (but not limited to) clean water & food supply, arable

land and source of energy.

1 Freshwater shortage. Water withdrawals for irrigated agriculture are projected to growat a slower pace due to reduced demand and improved water use efficiency, but will still

increase by almost 11 percent by 2050 (UN-FAO). Globally, fresh water resources are

sufficient, but they are very unevenly distributed and water scarcity will reach alarming


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levels in an increasing number of countries or regions within countries, particularly in

the Near East/North Africa and South Asia. Water scarcity could be made more acute by

changing rainfall patters resulting from climate change.

2 Increased food price. In the next 20 years, several inevitable factors contributes to theincrease in price for food such as the spike of oil price caused increased fertilizers and

transportation cost, climate changes that caused prolonged droughts in southern Africa,

floods in west Africa, winters deep-frost in China, unusually warmth in northern

Europe.

3 Increase biofuel demand. The push to produce bio-fuel as an alternative tohydrocarbons is further straining food supplies. It impacts worlds price of major grains

range between 20% and 60% (and between 3% and 75% on the world food price index).

Deepak Rajagopal, Energy Biosciences Institute, University of California, Berkeley.


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4 Desease in worlds crops. The disease, known as black stem rust (Puccinia graminis), hasalready destroyed harvests in Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia and predicted to spared to

Egypt, Turkey, the Middle East and finally India and Pakistan. This desease is caused by a

new strain of fungus known as UG99 which specifically targets the resistance genes in

wheats. With the out-break of such desease which had been contained decades ago, the

possibilities of another out-break is wide open. - Debora Mackenzie, New Scientist.

5 Allergenicity. Many people have life threatening allergies to food. Modifying the gene ofthe food can cause a new allergen or cause an allergic reaction in susceptible

individuals.

6 Cancerous and Antibiotic resistance. Eating genetically modified (GM) food could giveyou cancer and can make a human body antibiotic resistant. Dr Stanley Ewen, a

consultant histopathologist at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, says that a cauliflower[mosaic] virus used in GM foods could increase the risk of stomach and colon cancers.

7 Reduction in CHD (Coronary Health Disease). Ggenetically modified (GM) salmon willlower salmon prices and increase consumption of salmon, an exceptionally good source

of omega-3 fatty acids linked to lower risk of heart disease.

8 Ban on GM food cultivation, export-import activities and consumption. The europeanunion used to collectively banned cultivation of GM food and insisted on putting label

on imported GM food. Recently, in July 2010, the EU had given the right to its member

to decide what to do about GM food individually. This poses an opportunity on moreGM food demand and cultivation in GM-pro countries such as Spain and Netherlands

while on the other hand, more strict barriers to GM will grow in the countries of

opposite view like Germany and Austria.
http://www.newscientist.com/search?rbauthors=Debora+Mackenziehttp://www.newscientist.com/search?rbauthors=Debora+Mackenzie


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Risk and Opportunity Analysis:

HIGHEST

OPPORTUNITY

# Increased

food price

HIGHEST

RISK

# Allergenicity


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Maturity Model:

Maturity

modeling gives a

fair idea of

current standingsin different KRAs

and helps to look

into the things to

do. Different

stages forms

Aware to Best

Practice are given

below.

Having gone through the affinity process and coming up with the key result areas, we

have following maturity model on our hand.


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Performance testing:

Performance indicators and means to achieve them are identified and agreed upon.

System Model:

The start of our system is depending on external technology suppliers. However within

five years our organization shall have its own laboratory set up in place and its one

technology developed. Feedback from stakeholders like farmers, breeders, customers,

local distributers and food production facilities is an important mean in the

development of the organization, the development of the technology and the invention

of new technologies. Process diagram may accept any new entry that contributes in thedevelopment of our entity.


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Reinforcing / Balancing Function:

The enforcing function of our organization is to make a product available through

marketing policy. Making product sustainable by making product clinic so that more

customers can drop inn by and test our product and give us the feedback for

improvement.

The factors which will have adverse affect is how people think about GMF, there are

certain debates going on around the globe portraying the ills of GMF.

On one side the American government is favoring GMF and on the other end the

European Union contradicts the American ideology on GMF.

To balance the damping factor we need product certification telling people that they are

safe for their health. Hence, conducting number of researches and increasing public

awareness on GMF.


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Ranking of KRAs to use as an economic model:

Assessment using $ Contingency, based on maturity/competency

KRAAware Informed Involved Competent Best

Practice

Weight % $

Contingenc

1 TechnologyYes Yes Yes No No 15 $ 1200000

2International

barriers. (policies)

Yes Yes Yes No No 10 $ 800000

3 Food safety issues Yes Yes Yes No No 20 $ 1800000

4 Food quality andyield Yes Yes Yes Yes No. 25 $ 2000000

5Excess to resources

(Finance, Staff)

Yes Yes Yes Yes No 20 $ 1200000

6 R & D Yes Yes Yes No No 10 $ 500000

7 Total20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 100=

$12000000

Gap = $

7500000

Strategic Plan:

We are a governmental organization interested in developing, marketing and

implementing genetically modified foods for human consumption, for animal nutrition

and for bio-fuel need. Our entity shell develops its own technology by the next five

years by establishing a competent researching laboratory.

This plan shall draw a road map for our organization for the next 15 years. However the

plan is open to meet new need of the markets and to adopt new technologies that may

help our organization to grow faster and healthy.This plan has developed to meet our goals in the field of GMF and to get a footprint in

the food and nutrition markets. It is the right time to enter such market due to

shortage in the global food supply and nutrition materials availability.


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VISION

A transformed/modern sector that is fully competitive, diversified and sustainable.

MISSION

To be as one of the main players in the food sector, ensuring food security, generating

income, creating employment, and conserving natural resources, in order to grow the

economy, reduce poverty and empower the local population for sustainable

development.

STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES

Increase the efficiency, profitability and ccompetitiveness of the agriculture andcooperative sectors

Accelerate the diversification in food production processing and exports

Improve and conserve the natural and productive resource base to ensure long-term sustainable, productivity and viability

Improve access to productive resources and services and create economicopportunities for small/young farmers, women and indigenous people,

particularly in poor, marginal areas.

Strengthen the institutional capacities to provide effective support in marketingand trade, research and extension, as well as relevant education and training

OUR CLIENTS and PARTNERS IN DEVELOPMENT

Farmers in different capacities.

Fishers and animal breeders.

Food production facilities

Processors and manufacturers firms.

Distributors and exporters agencies.

National and local government.


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SWOT Analysis:

References:

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1717572,00.html

www.wfp.org

Foster, M. Evidence of price premiums for non-GM grains in world markets, AARES

Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, accessed 12 April 2011,

http://www.abare.gov.au/publications_html/conference/conference_10/AARES_4.pdf

Strengths:

1. Financial capacity

(governmental organisation)

2. Patented technology

3. G to G marketing strength

4. Well trained staff.

Weaknesses:

1. Technology from external

supplier for the first 5 years

2. Some players are in the

market since 10 years

3. Lab test on animals yet to be

stared.

Threats

1. Debate on GMF healthand safety issues

2. International berries

3. Labelling (cost &segregation )

Opportunities:

1. Food shortage

2. High food prices

3. Bio-fuel increasingly

growing demand

4. Environmental friendly

products.

SWOT
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1717572,00.htmlhttp://www.wfp.org/http://www.abare.gov.au/publications_html/conference/conference_10/AARES_4.pdfhttp://www.abare.gov.au/publications_html/conference/conference_10/AARES_4.pdfhttp://www.wfp.org/http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1717572,00.html

Documents

Group Assignment Part 1 by UN-10