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Growing Up in Ireland Conference. Professor John Bynner, Longview 7 th December 2009, Dublin. Contents. Why longitudinal data research Longitudinal studies: time and place The studies Context of social change Intergenerational continuity Changing life course process - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Growing Up in Ireland Conference
Professor John Bynner, Longview 7th December 2009, Dublin
Contents
1. Why longitudinal data research
2. Longitudinal studies: time and place
3. The studies
4. Context of social change
5. Intergenerational continuity
6. Changing life course process
7. Trajectories of disadvantage and policy challenge
Value of longitudinal dataPredicting consequences of early experience and
circumstances – e.g. childhood disadvantage
Explaining outcomes – e.g. NEET
Estimating returns – e.g. to qualifications
Identifying factors that override predictions – e.g. “escape from disadvantage”
Life course dynamics – e.g. literacy proficiency, ICT competence, employment
Types of longitudinal cohort study
Birth cohort studies: 1946, 1958, 1970, 1992 Avon Longitudinal Survey of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), 2000 Millennium Cohort (MCS) Study,
2005 Growing Up in Scotland (MCS), 2008 Growing Up In Ireland (GUI), 2010 French Birth cohort study (ELFE), 2012 German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS), 2009 US National Children’s Study (NCS)
Age cohort studies: 2004 Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE), 2005 Growing Up in Scotland (GUS), 2008 Growing Up in Ireland (GUI), 2012 German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS)
Sequential cohort studies: Youth Cohort Study (YCS), Scottish School Leavers Study (SLS), 2012 German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS)
Martin, J. Bynner, J. Kalton, G. Boyle, P. Goldstein, H. Gayle, V. Parsons, S. Piesse (2006), A. Review of Panel and Cohort Studies . Bynner, J. Wadsworth, M Goldstein, H. Maughan, B. Purdon, S. Michael, R. (2007), Scientifc Case for a New Birth Cohort Study. Bynner, J. Wadsworth, M Goldstein, H. Maughan, B. Lessof, C. Michael, R. (2009) Options for the design of the 2012 birth cohort study. www.Longviewuk.com /pages/reportsnew.shtml
British Birth Cohort Studies
54 Year NSHD
NSHD
05
1015202530354045505560
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
British Birth Cohort Studies
NCDS
7 Year NCDS
11 Year NCDS
23 Year NCDS
33 Year NCDS
42 Year NCDS
50 Year NCDS
05
1015202530354045505560
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
37 Year NCDS
Child
Data
16 years NCDS
British Birth Cohort Studies
22 Months BCS7042 Months BCS70
BCS70
10 Years BCS70
21 Years BCS70S (sub sample)
30 Years BCS70
5 Years BCS70
26 Years BCS70
38 Years BCS70
05
1015202530354045505560
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
16 Year BCS70
British Birth Cohort Studies
051015202530354045505560
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
9 months 3 years
7 years5 years
11 years
MCS
Age
The British Birth Cohort studies
NCDS 1958 (n = 17,000)
BCS70 1970 (n = 17,000)
MCS 2000 (n = 19,000)
NSHD 1946 (n = 5,000)
051015202530354045505560
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Child
Data
Age
Year
Child Data
ALSPAC 1992 (n = 15,000)
Bynner, J. & Joshi, H. (2007) ‘Building the Evidence Base from Longitudinal Data’. Innovation, 20, 159-179.
NCS 2012
(n= 30,000)
Theoretical perspective
Distal and Proximal ecological factors in child development (Bronfenbrenner)
Interactional contexts
Structural factors
Life course trajectories (Elder, Heinz) shaped by :
Human agency – development of the individual
Linked-lives – social relations
Timing – age, period, cohort
Location in time and space – history and culture
Housing space – people per room
% > 2 per room0123456789
10
1946195819702000
Parents/carers with degrees
% with degrees - 1946
% with degrees - 1958
% with degrees - 1970
% with degrees - 1990
% with degrees - 2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
MothersFathers
% experienced temporary suspension from school by family social class
1958 men
1970 men
1958 wom
1970 wom
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
I
II
IIINM
IIIM
IV
V
Ferri, E. , Bynner, J. and Wadsworth . M. (2003) Changing Britain Changing Lives . IoE press
Pre-school children’s relative chances of ‘low’ (bottom 20%) Vocabulary scores by parents’ (age 34) functional
literacy level , taking account of parents’ highest qualification and social class
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
22.22.42.62.8
33.23.43.63.8
4
EL2 EL3 Level 1 Level 2
pre-school
(* EL = Entry Level qualification)
Relative chances
*
Modeling the routes to adult statuses
Early resource accumulation Transition resources Adult statuses
Family background Early influences Leaving choicesEmployment/Family
(Birth) (Age 10/11) (Age 16+) Age 26
Rural vs urban area
Structural equation model of education pathways to unemployment
Exogenous (x) Endogenous (y) Outcome (y)
Before 10 10-11 16+ 21/23
Mother left
education
Father left education
Family social class
Maths
Reading
Mother’s interest
Father’s interest
Overcrowding
Exams score
Literacy score
Numeracy score
Age left education
Number of jobs
Malaise
No work-based training
Unemployment 16-21 / 16-23
1958 cohort boys: impact of family background
Before 10 11
Maths
Reading
Mother’s interest in education
Father’s interest in education
Overcrowding
Rented housing
Social class
.11
.19
.35
.43
-.19
-.50
1970 cohort boys: impact of family background
Before 10 10
Age mother left education
Age father left education
Maths
Reading
Mother’s interest in education
Father’s interest in education
Overcrowding
Rented housing
Social class
.13
.08
-.19
-.15
.13
-.14
.11
.08
.10
.11
1958 cohort boys: influences on school leaving exam scores
11 16+
Maths
Reading
Overcrowding
Exams score
.46
.22
-.06
1970 cohort boys: influences on school leaving exam scores
10 16+
Maths
Reading
Rented housing
Father’s interest
Overcrowding
Exams score
.30
.21
.10
-.12
-.15
Microsoft Office PowerPoint 2007.lnk
1958 cohort boys: influences on unemployment
16+ 16-23
Exams score
Numeracy score
Number of jobs
Unemployment 16-23
-.11
-.12
.17
1970 cohort boys: influences on unemployment
16+ 16-21
Exams score
Literacy score
Numeracy score
Number of jobs
Malaise
Social class
Unemployment 16-21
-.16
-.11
-.10
.09
.10
-.11
Trajectory of disadvantage Age Disadvantage Education outcome Intervention
0-13
Unskilled family, Overcrowded, rented home Free school meals Workless familyLack of parental interest in child’s education
Poor pre school cognitive skillsLiteracy and numeracy development slow Falling behind at school
Every Child Matters Sure Start
14-22
Casual unskilled work NEET
Poor literacy and numeracy No qualificationsLeave school early
EMAsConnexionsExtend education inside and outside School age 18 graduation
25+ Out of labour market/ early parenthood (Women)Unemployment/ delayed partnership (Men)
No employer-based trainingProspects poor
Skills for Life Provision matched to situation and needsEmbedded curriculum,
0-13
Disadvantaged circumstances
Cycle repeated Break the cycleStage-based provision
Conclusions
1. Collection and use of longitudinal data in accordance with the life course perspective is increasingly recognised as a key tool for science and policy - hence the widening investment in longitudinal research resources across the world.
2. Such multi-disciplinary enquiry enables identification of the key features of changing social, economic, political and environmental contexts impacting on child development and to chart their long term effects.
3. GIU’s potential value will be enhanced by the growing comparative opportunities for identifying the key formative influences on development to which policy can be directed across the life course in Ireland.
