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Framtidens gruv- och mineral industri, Georange, Stockolm 31 januari 2011
GruvboomGruvboom -Sverige m
pler
.Sverigebehövs - men
g: K
aian
ders
Sem
är vi redo?
Cop
perd
raw
in
Magnus Ericsson
Metal prices above 2007 peakMetal prices above 2007 peak450
300350400
150200250300
50100150
0
Copper price
Gold price
Nickel price
Long term demand outlookoutlook
Source: Electrolux
Copper use 2004pp
Source: Häggström, Handelsbanken 2006.gg
Copper use 2009pp
Source: Häggström, Handelsbanken 2010.gg
Steel use/GDPSteel use/GDP30
20
25
mill
ion
GD
P
15
20
umpt
ion
t/1 m
Deflated GDP to 2004 $ terms
10
Stee
l Con
su
0
5
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: Paul Jourdan.
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
Urbanisation in ChinaUrbanisation in China• Raising China to Japan (47 % urban to 66 % urban) involves adding 300 million .• That is the entire population of USA today• China has urbanised 300 million over the last 20 years• By 2025 China will add 350 million to urban life, close to 1 billion in cities• That amounts to:
– 221 cities with more than 1 million people (Europe has 35 today)– 5 billion m2 of paved roadsp– 170 mass rapid transport systems– 40 billion m2 of floor space – in 5 million buildings– 50 000 buildings will be skyscrapers – equivalent to 10 New York cities.g y p q
• Until 2020, emerging Asia will create a budding middle class (GDP/cap 5000 USD) of app. 2700 million people.
061030 Anton Löf
Copper useSouthKorea90
100
Urbanisation
GermanyMalaysia
Japan
USA
70
80
Indonesia
Pakistanh il d
China40
50
60
PakistanThailand
VietnamIndia
20
30
0
10
1 10 100 1000 10000Populationp
Long term supply outlook
Source: Vale
Global miningg
6. Russia 6%4%
5%
1.China 14%
8 India 5%3 B il 8%
5%
8. India 5%3.Brazil 8%
4%
6%7%13%
R M t i l G St kh l 2010Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2010.
Metals value at mineMetals value at mineYEAR 2009 TOTAL ~ 386 billion USD, Metals, Diamonds and Uranium
i l kh lSource: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2010.
Mine production value IMine production value I600
500
300
400
BUSD
200
B
0
100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20091995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mine production value IIMine production value II700
500
600
400
BUSD
200
300
0
100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e2011e2012e1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e2011e2012e
Mine projects globalMine projects global
Mine projects EuropeMine projects Europe
Mine projects Fennoscandia
New projects globallyNew projects globally
CAPEX by regionCAPEX by regionTotal capex 562 billion USD
Africa
Asia
Europe other
Sweden
FinlandFinland
Russia
Latin America
North AmericaNorth America
Oceania
CAPEX 2010 by regionCAPEX 2010 by regionTotal capex 60 billion USD
Africa
Asia
Europe other
Sweden
FinlandFinland
Russia
Latin America
North AmericaNorth America
Oceania
Mining CAPEXg140
100
120
SD
40
60
80
Bill
ion
US
0
20
40
0
Source: Raw Materials Group 2010.
Demand & supply
Conclusions• Metal prices remain at high levels.• Strong demand for at least 5‐10 years.Strong demand for at least 5 10 years.• Supply lagging but will catch up.• Nordic countries European leaders.Nordic countries European leaders.• EU focuses metal supply.• Sweden:Sweden:
• Strategy/policy ?• Environment/security of supply ?o e t/secu ty o supp y• Regional development potential ?• International role Europe/globally ?p /g y
TACK !
Magnus EricssonMagnus EricssonPO Box 3127 SE‐169 03 Solna, Sweden,[email protected]: +46‐8‐744 00 65 Fax: +46‐8‐744 0066
www.rmg.se
