GSEVEE SMALL ENTERPRISES’ INSTITUTE, 46 Aristotelous str., GR-104 33, Athens Tel.: +30 210 8846852, fax: +30 210 8846853 [email protected]

maRcA.E.

maRcA.E.Marketing Research Communication

maRcA.E.Marketing Research Communication

GSEVEE SMALL ENTERPRISES’ INSTITUTE,GSEVEE SMALL ENTERPRISES’ INSTITUTE, 46 46 Aristotelous str. Aristotelous str., , GR-GR-104 33, 104 33, AthensAthensTel.:Tel.: +30 +30 210 8846852, 210 8846852, ffaxax:: +30 +30 210 8846853 www.imegsevee.gr [email protected] 8846853 www.imegsevee.gr [email protected]

SURVEY SPECIFICATIONS

The survey was carried out by marc S.A. – Registered under NCRTV No. 1 (ONE), in the framework of the subproject 3 “Repeated GSEVEE studies-Polls on issues of interest for small enterprises” in the framework of the action “Reinforcing GSEVEE institutional and operational capacity”. The action is co-financed by Greece and the European Union in the framework of the Operational Programme “Human Resources Development”. ON REQUEST OF ........................... IME GSEVEE

POPULATION UNDER CONSIDERATION Small and micro enterprises as a whole (0-49 employees).

SAMPLE SIZE .............................. 1.200 enterprises

PERIOD ........................................ 10-16 July 2013

AREA ............................................ Pan-hellenic coverage

SAMPLING METHOD .................... Multistage random sampling using quota based on sector and

geographical distribution.

METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION . Telephone interviews based on an electronic questionnaire.

marc S.A.. .................................. is a member of SEDEA (Association of Greek Market & Opinion

Research Companies), ESOMAR, WAPOR and respects the PESS

regulation (on Quality Control for Data Collection) and the

international codes of conduct on carrying out and publishing public

opinion surveys.

22

SAMPLE STRUCTURE

33

SECTOR Trade 37,4

Manufacture 23,8

Services 38,8

NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES With no employees 28,8

1 person 27

2-4 persons 23,4

5-9 persons 10,8

10 and more persons 10

YEARS IN OPERATION up to 5 years 5,5

5-10 years 8,4

10-15 years 13,4

15 years and more 72,5

TURNOVER Below EUR 100 thousand 61,1

EUR 100-300 thousand 23,2

Above EUR 300 thousand 11,5

AREA Attica 36

Rest of Greece 64

44

55

You consider that the situation of your enterprise during the first half of 2013:

got improved5,8%

got deteriorated75,4%

remained unchanged

18,8%

NA0,0%

66

The assessment of the first half of 2013 for enterprises is extremely negative. 75,4% of enterprises states that its overall economic situation has been deteriorated.

PROSPECTS AND REAL SITUATION FOR THE 1st HALF OF 2013COMPARATIVE DATA OF JULY 2012 - JULY 2013

77

3,7

2,9 2,43,3 2,7 2,6

4,05,8

71,8

84,2

80,2 81,3

87,3 88,1

82,0

75,4

18,813,9

9,19,9

15,113,2

16,6

24,4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

FEBRUARY2010

JULY 2010 JANUARY 2011 JULY 2011 JANUARY 2012 JULY 2012 JANUARY 2013 JULY 2013

Improvement in enterprise's position

Deterioration in enterprise's position

Stabilisation in enterprise's position


88

*positive – negative views

ASSESSMENT OF ENTERPRISE’S SITUATION

(PAST HALF)


ImprovementDeterioration

No changeNA

5,8

75,4

18,8

0

11

62,9

21,1

5

The situation in the 1st half of 2013 The prospects for the 2nd half of 2013

99

You anticipate that the situation of your enterprise during the next half:

will be improved5,9%

will be deteriorated68,1%

will remain unchanged

19,7%

NA6,3%

1010

The prospects for the second half of 2013 are ominous, as the prospects of enterprises are negative in a large percentage (68,1%) of the sample. The degree of pessimism is higher between the smallest enterprises of the sample.

Economic Climate Forecast

1111

For the first time, during the past 2 years, there is an increase in pessimism. This shows that any hope for recovery fades away for entrepreneurs – the “era of illusions” came to an end.

PROSPECTS ON ENTERPRISE’S SITUATION (NEXT HALF)

1212

TURNOVERTURNOVER Can you indicate whether, during the first half of 2013, the turnover of your enterprise has

been increased, decreased, or remained unchanged?

increased7,1%

decreased75,8%

unchanged10,9%

1313

75,8 % if enterprises showed decrease in turnover, with the highest decrease being recorded in trade and micro enterprises. The average decrease in turnover accounts for 27,3%, and cumulatively exceeds 50%.

2,1

0,9

5,6

6,6

13

9,7

1

8,8

3,4

14,5

3,8

12,5

7,3

10,8

0 2 4 6 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6

Up to 10% decrease

About 15% decrease

About 20% decrease

About 25% decrease

About 30% decrease

About 35% decrease

About 40% decrease

About 45% decrease

About 50% decrease

More than 50% decrease

No change

Slight increase

Significant increase

NA

Overall, which is the percentage difference noticed in your turnover

in first half of 2013 compared to respective period of 2012?

Average Turnover Decrease: 27,29%

1414

DEMANDDEMAND The demand for the products or services that your enterprise provides

during the 1st half of 2013 has:

been increased9,5%

been decreased74,6%

remained unchanged

15,9%

NA0,0%

1515

LIQUIDITYLIQUIDITY The liquidity in your enterprise during the 1st half of 2013 has:

been increased4,7%

been decreased81,7%

remained unchanged

13,6%

NA0,0%

1616

ORDERSORDERS Orders towards your suppliers during the 1st half of 2013 have:

been increased5,0%

been decreased77,8%

remained unchanged

14,1%

NA3,1%

1717

INVESTMENT ACTIVITYINVESTMENT ACTIVITY The investment activity of your enterprise during the 1st half of 2013 has:

been increased9,6%

been decreased35,3%

remained unchanged

52,8%

NA2,3%

1818

The enterprises showing an increased investment activity are the newly-established (1-5 years in operation), as well as the small and medium-sized enterprises (that is to say, the ones having a high turnover and more than 5 employees). This can be explained by the fact that most enterprises finance the market of fixed equipment during the first years of their operation. Investment stagnation for the rest enterprises is due to the decreased liquidity and the inability to form a coherent investment policy for small and medium-sized enterprises.

2,8

80,9

2,2

1,2

3,5

5,4

0,3

0,5

0,9

2,3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Increased by 1

Increased by 2

Increased by 3

Increased by more than 3

decreased by 1

decreased by 2

decreased by 3

decreased by more than 3

remained stable

NA

EMPLOYMENTEMPLOYMENT Has the personnel of your enterprise during the last 6 months

been increased, decreased, or remained stable?

4,0

12,3

Increased4,0% Decreased

12,3%

Remained stable80,9%

NA2,8%

1919

1) For each enterprise proceeding in recruitments in the private sector, there are about 3 enterprises that proceed in lay-offs (in the previous survey the respective figure stood at 1:4, January 2013).

2) Following IME GSEVEE estimations, there were 56.000 jobs lost during the first half of 2013.

3) The decreasing rate in lay-offs is due to the substitute of costs reduction, which is reducing working hours/ and wages.

4) As ELSTAT data show, new-comers have a significant share in unemployment’s increase.

5) Noteworthy, in manufacture and services sectors, enterprises proceeding in recruitments are double than the respective ones in the trade sector.

COMMENTS ON EMPLOYMENT

2020

4,0 12,3 80,9 2,8

9,6 35,3 52,8 2,3

5,0 77,8 14,1 3,1

4,7 81,7 13,6

9,5 74,6 15,9

7,1 75,8 17,1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

TURNOVER

DEMAND

LIQUIDITY

ORDERS

INVESTMENTS

EMPLOYMENT

Increase Decrease No change NA

ASSESSMENT OF THE PAST HALFCOMPARATIVE CHART

2121

ASSESSMENT OF THE PAST HALF

2222

1) Each economic figure in enterprises keeps on having a negative performance, recording a deceleration compared to the previous surveys.

2) The indicators showing a stable deterioration compared to the previous surveys have to do with liquidity and orders by enterprises (decrease by 81,7% and 77,8% respectively).

3) Trade and micro enterprises sectors record the worst performance and are close to the threat of collapse. The newly-established enterprises (of up to 5 years in operation) are shown relatively resistant, which seem to invest more.

2323

TURNOVERTURNOVER During the next half (i.e. the 2nd half of 2013), do you anticipate that the turnover of your

enterprise will be increased, decreased, or it will remain stable?

will be increased8,2%

will be decreased67,3%


20,0%

NA4,5%

2424

TURNOVERTURNOVER - per category -

2525

SECTOR YEARS IN OPERATION AREA

TradeManufactu

reServices

Up to 5 years

5-10 years

10-15 years

15 years and more

AtticaRest of Greece

It will be increased

6,5 12,6 7,1 18,2 5,9 9,9 7,4 8,8 7,8

It will be decreased

74,8 57,7 65,8 53 72,3 73,9 66,4 64,8 68,6

It will remain unchanged

15,6 23,1 22,4 24,2 20,8 15,5 20,5 22,2 18,8

NA 3,1 6,6 4,7 4,5 1 0,6 5,7 4,2 4,8

TURNOVER NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

Below 100 thousand

100-300 thousand

Above 300 thousand

With no employees

1 person2-3

persons4-5

personsMore than 5 persons

It will be increased 5,6 10,4 16,7 6,4 5,2 9,6 13,2 11,7

It will be decreased 73,4 65,1 44,9 72,8 75,3 64,8 50,4 54,2

It will remain unchanged

17,6 19,1 31,9 17,7 17,6 19,2 27,1 27,5

NA 3,4 5,4 6,5 3,2 1,9 6,4 9,3 6,7

DEMANDDEMAND You anticipate that the demand for the products or services that your enterprise provides,

during the next half:




20,3%

NA4,2%

2626

LIQUIDITYLIQUIDITY You anticipate that liquidity in your enterprise during the next half:




19,7%

NA3,8%

2727

ORDERSORDERS You anticipate that orders towards your suppliers during the next half:




18,8%

NA6,2%

2828

INVESTMENT ACTIVITYINVESTMENT ACTIVITY You anticipate that the investment activity of your enterprise during the next half:


will be decreased34,1%will remain

unchanged55,5%

NA6,1%

2929

to get increased2,7%

to get decreased16,5%

to remain stable75,4%

NA5,4%

EMPLOYMENTEMPLOYMENT During the next 6 months, do you consider most probable the personnel of your enterprise

to get increased, decreased or to remain stable?

3030

to get increased3,9%

to get decreased29,3%

to remain stable61,2%

NA5,6%

EMPLOYMENTEMPLOYMENT During the next 6 months, do you consider most probable the personnel of your enterprise

to get increased, decreased or to remain stable?-enterprises with employees-

3131

PROSPECTS ON EMPLOYMENTPROSPECTS ON EMPLOYMENT

3232

For each enterprise that states that it is probable to proceed in recruitment correspond 9 enterprises stating that it is probable for them to dismiss (in trade sector the ratio stands at 1:12). At the risk of losing 85,000-90,000 employment positions in total (that is to say, employers, self-employed, employees) and 45,000 jobs (paid employment).

3,9 29,3 61,2 5,6

4,3 34,1 55,5 6,1

7,0 68,0 18,8 6,2

6,7 69,8 19,7 3,8

8,6 66,9 20,3 4,2

8,2 67,3 20 4,5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

TURNOVER

DEMAND

LIQUIDITY

ORDERS

INVESTMENTS

EMPLOYMENT

Increase Decrease No change NA

OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT HALFCOMPARATIVE CHART

3333

COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS SURVEYS

TURNOVER

Reduction

Further reduction

DEMAND

Reduction

Further reduction

LIQUIDITY

Reduction

Further reduction

3434

COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS SURVEYS

ORDERS

Reduction

Further reduction

INVESTMENT

Reduction

Further reduction

PERSONNEL

Reduction

Further reduction

3535

PROSPECTS FOR THE NEXT HALFCONCLUSIONS

3636

1) The forecast for the second half of 2013 is ominous, as enterprises’ prospects are negative in all figures. It is for the first time that prospects deteriorate. This shows that any recovery hope for entrepreneurs fades away.

2) Micro enterprises record the worst prospects for the next half. 3) The lack of liquidity and the decrease in orders are the most

significant problems to be faced by enterprises.

3737

During the past 6 months have you faced difficulties in paying wages on time?-Out of enterprises with paid employees-

Yes, major25,6%

Yes, some times25,8%

Not particularly48,6%

51,4%

3838

110,000 enterprises face problems in paying wages in time.

Having faced during the past 6 months difficulties in paying wages on time-Out of enterprises with paid employees-

COMPARATIVE CHART JANUARY 2011 - JULY 2013

3939

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

J anuary 2011

July 2011 January 2012


July 2013

44,242,1

53,3 53,4 52,4

51,4

Did you have to reduce, even occasionally, working hours or days for some employees?

-Out of enterprises with paid employees-

Yes50,5%No

49,5%

4040

Had to reduce, even occasionally, working hours or days for some employees-Out of enterprises with paid employees-

COMPARATIVE CHART JULY 2010 - JULY 2013

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

5 0

J uly 2010 January 2011 July 2011 January2012 July 2012 January 2013 July 2013

30 30,232

37,4

40,5

47,7

50,5

4141

Did you have to reduce some employees’ wages?-Out of enterprises with paid employees-

Yes, for some of them

10,2%

Yes, for all of them

39,1%No50,7%

NA0,0%

49,3%

4242

The changing dynamics of labour relations towards more flexible and intense types of employment keep holding on.

- 65,7% of enterprises has proceeded in reducing working hours or/and wages.

- More than half enterprises with employees (50,5%) have reduced working hours or days.

- 49,3% of enterprises has proceeded in a immediate readjustment of wage cost, by reducing wages.

Had to reduce some employees’ wages-Out of enterprises with paid employees-

COMPARATIVE CHART JULY 2010 – JULY 2013

4343

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

5 0




July 2013

15 15,6

19,4

28,6

33,2

43,6

49,3

Did they have to reduce employees’ working hours/days or wages?-Out of enterprises with paid employees-

Yes65,7%

No34,3%

4444

How probable do you consider that you will have to reduce your employees’ wages or working hours during the next half?

-Out of enterprises with paid employees-

Fairly probable (almost certain)

36,2%

A little probable (I can't say no)

31,4%

Not at all probable29,7%

NA0,9%

4545

4646

Many enterprises reported that now they find it difficult to cover key obligations. During the past half, did you have arrears towards…

Yes28,0%

No54,8%

NA17,2%

……rents?rents?……rents?rents?

4747

Many enterprises reported that now they find it difficult to cover key obligations. During the past half, did you have arrears towards

……Public UtilitiesPublic Utilities[PPC (electricity)[PPC (electricity), , ote ote (telecommunications)(telecommunications), ,

water supplywater supply))??

……Public UtilitiesPublic Utilities[PPC (electricity)[PPC (electricity), , ote ote (telecommunications)(telecommunications), ,

water supplywater supply))??

4848

Yes34,3%

No65,5%

NA0,2%


Yes27,8%

No69,8%

NA2,4%

……suppliers?suppliers?……suppliers?suppliers?

4949


Yes31,3%

No52,6%

NA16,1%

……loan payments?loan payments? ……loan payments?loan payments?

5050


Yes43,2%

No56,8%

……ΟΑΕΕ (ΟΑΕΕ (your social your social security fundsecurity fund))??

……ΟΑΕΕ (ΟΑΕΕ (your social your social security fundsecurity fund))??

5151


Yes22,6%

No76,4%

NA1,0%

……ΙΚΑ (ΙΚΑ (social security social security contributions)?contributions)?

……ΙΚΑ (ΙΚΑ (social security social security contributions)?contributions)?

5252

**Out of enterprises with paid employees


Yes34,1%

No65,9%

… … the tax authoritythe tax authority((VATVAT,, labour tax etc labour tax etc))??

… … the tax authoritythe tax authority((VATVAT,, labour tax etc labour tax etc))??

5353


COMPARATIVE CHART

22,6 76,4 1

27,8 69,8 2,4

28,0 54,8 17,2

31,3 52,6 16,1

34,1 65,9

34,3 65,5 0,2

43,2 56,8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

ΟΑΕΕ (your social security fund)

Suppliers

Public Utilities [electricity (PPC),telecommunications (OTE),

water supply]

Rent

Loan payments

Tax authority (VAT,labour taxetc)

ΙΚΑ (social securitycontributions)

Yes No NA

5454


COMPARATIVE DATA OF JULY 2012- JULY 2013

5555

ΟΑΕΕ (self-employed social security fund)

SuppliersPublic Utilities

RentLoan payments

Tax authority ΙΚΑ (social

security contributions)

43,2

34,3

34,1

31,3

2827,8

22,6

43

35,8

31,9 33,431,6

33

17,3



RESULTS

5656

1) The largest part of enterprises’ debts has to do with security and tax obligations. The failure of the recent legislative initiative on the settlement of debts is obvious.

- The percentage of enterprises with arrears towards ΟΑΕΕ came up to 43,2% (from 42% in January), and the figure of enterprises having arrears towards ΙΚΑ to 22,6% (from 17,3%).

- Enterprises that are in paying off debts towards tax authority increased to 34,1% (from 31,9%).

2) The settlement of debts in the private sphere of economy seems to be more effective. Debts towards suppliers and with regard to loans have been decreased.

Do you think that next year will you be able to meet your tax obligations?

Yes47,8%

No39,8%

NA12,4%

5757

It is expected that 4 out of 10 enterprises will not meet their tax obligations, with obvious effects on public revenues. It is not expected that the fall in turnover and the decreased taxpaying ability of enterprises will be counterbalanced by the reduction of VAT in restaurant and catering sector.

Do you anticipate that until the end of the year will you be able to meet your tax obligations?

Yes26,9%

No63,3%

NA9,8%

5858

* Those who have overdue tax obligations

Do you anticipate that until the end of the year will you be able to pay your social security contributions?

Yes44,6%

No39,2%

NA16,2%

5959

Do you anticipate that until the end of the year will you be able to pay your social security contributions?

Yes26,3%

No57,2%

NA16,5%

6060

* Those who have overdue obligations to social security institutions (IKA, OAEE)

6161

Under the existing conditions and the current prospects as far as the crisis is concerned, how probable is that your enterprise will be facing major problems during the period to come to

an extent that it will be at risk of closing?

Very probable20,9%

Fairly probable30,3%

Not very probable25,2%

Not at all probable22,0%

NA1,6%

Very & Fairly probable: 51,2%Very & Fairly probable: 51,2%

Not very & Not at all probable: 47,2%

Not very & Not at all probable: 47,2%

6262

More than half enterprises state that they face major problems in their operation. As a whole, 20-25% of enterprises are at risk of closing.

WORRY ABOUT A PROBABLE BUSINESS CLOSURE COMPARATIVE CHART

MAY 2009- JULY 2013

6363

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

May 2009 J uly 2010 J anuary 2011

J uly 2011 J anuary 2012

J uly 2012 J anuary 2013

J uly 2013

11,7

44,4

52,7

44,5

51,2

53,3

49,651,2

In your opinion, when will such an occurrence take place?-Out of those considering probable that their enterprise will be facing major problems

operating during the next period to an extent that it will be at risk of closure-

Shortly, during the next three

months10,5%

In six months time

37,3%

Later on50,7%

6464

IME GSEVEE taking enterprises’ viability rate into account estimates that there will be about 40,000 further closures.

6565

Which out of the three phrases to be mentioned fits better to the Greek Economy currently?

6666

5,3

76,5

18,2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

The situation starts somehowgetting stabilised (we have sank

to the bottom)

Crisis gets deeper unabatedly

The first signs of recovery are insight

76,5% of enterprises considers that crisis gets deeper unabatedly. Barely, a 10% considers that there visible signs of recovery for 2014.

When do you consider that the first signs of market recovery will be?

6767

12,7

6,8

23,9

9,0

11,2

16,5

11,4

8,4

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

During 2013

In 2014

Between 2015-2016

Between 2017- 2018

In 2020

Later on

Never

NA

Would holding early elections, for changing the political scene, be beneficial for the economy and market, or would it make things worse?

It would be to the benefit of

economy17,3%

It would make the situation

worse67,1%

NA15,6%

6868

Which political party expresses your private business interests?

6969

4,6

58,3

3,2

0,5

0,8

0,8

1,0

1,5

3,5

5,3

9,8

10,7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

ND (New Democracy)

SYRIZA (Coalition of the RadicalLeft)

Chrisi Augi (Golden Dawn)

ΚΚΕ (Communist Party ofGreece)

PASOK (Panhellenic SocialistMovement)

Dimokratiki Aristera (DemocraticLeft)

Anexartitoi Ellines (IndependentGreeks)

Drasi (Drasi)

Dimiourgia xana (RecreateGreece)

Other, weaker, party

None in particular

NA

7070

Will you be going on vacation this summer?

66,1

16,8

15,2

1,9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Yes, for more days/ at moreease than last year

Yes, for less days/ moreaffordable ones than last year

Yes, about the same as the yearbefore

No

7171

66,1% of entrepreneurs and self-employed stated that this year it will not be going on vacation (compared to 64,8% in July 2012).

Which will be your accommodation?-Out of those going on vacation-

2,4

1,0

4,2

9,8

14,7

17,4

50,5

0 10 20 30 40 50

Private property

Hotel

Rent room

Friend's guest

Camping

Elsewhere

NA

7272

Only a 32,1% out of those going on vacation will employ a tourist accommodation establishment (hotel or room). Given that only 1 out of 3 entrepreneurs will be going on vacation, the collapse of domestic tourism is vividly recorded.

Documents

GSEVEE SMALL ENTERPRISES’ INSTITUTE, 46 Aristotelous str., GR-104 33, Athens Tel.: +30 210 8846852, fax: +30 210 8846853 [email protected]