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Gwent Local Resilience Forum

2015-2016

GWENT COMMUNITY RISK REGISTER

GLRF Gwent Local Resilience Forum

Risk Assessment Working Group

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Maintained in accordance with Regulation 15(1) of The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (Contingency Planning) Regulations 2005.

Gwent Local Resilience Forum Community Risk Register

This Community Risk Register (CRR) is maintained in accordance with Regulation 15(1) of The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (Contingency Planning) Regulations 2005.

1. Contents

1. CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2

2. DOCUMENT HISTORY ...................................................................................................................................................... 3

3. OVERVIEW AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................... 4

THE NATIONAL RISK REGISTER ....................................................................................................................................................... 5

4. PRODUCTION & UPDATE PROCESS OF THE COMMUNITY RISK REGISTER ........................................................................ 6

5. VISUALISATION OF THE COMMUNITY RISK REGISTER ..................................................................................................... 8

AN ILLUSTRATION OF THE HIGH CONSEQUENCE RISKS FACING GWENT LRF ............................................................................................ 9

6. COMMUNITY RISK REGISTER ......................................................................................................................................... 10

7. EXCLUSIONS TABLE ....................................................................................................................................................... 43

APPENDIX 1 LIKELIHOOD AND IMPACT SCORING SCALES .................................................................................................. 46

GWENT LRF RISK PRIORITY SCORING SCALE ................................................................................................................................... 48

APPENDIX 2 RISK RATING MATRIX (UPDATED 2014 LRMG VERSION) ................................................................................ 49

APPENDIX 3 2015 NRR THREAT MATRIX............................................................................................................................ 51

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2. Document History

Review Date Version Summary of Changes

Dec 2005 1.0 First Draft

Jan 2006 2.0 General Update to First Draft

Feb 2006 3.0 Minor adjustments to V2

Mar 2006 4.0 Minor adjustments to V3

Apr 2006 5.0 (WD) Minor adjustments to V4 (Working Draft)

June 2006 June 06 Addition of Executive Summary

June 2007 June 2007 Update from new guidance V5

Sept 2007 Sept 2007 Inclusion of Risk Priorities as agreed by the GLRF

Nov 2007 2008 Draft Updated from 2007 Local Risk Assessment Guidance

Sept 2008 Sept 2008 Adjustments to Sept 2008 version agreed by Gwent LRF Risk Assessment Working Group

Nov/Dec 2009 1.1 2009 Updated from the latest (2008) LRAG Local Risk Assessment Guidance as agreed by the Gwent LRF Risk Assessment working group and the Risk Priorities Sub Group.

Sept 2010 2.1 2010 Updated from the latest (2009/2010) LRAG Local Risk Assessment Guidance, meetings of the LRF Risk Assessment Working Group and individually updated risk assessments.

Jan 2011 2.2 2011 Updated Risk Priorities following approval of the revised Gwent LRF Risk Priority Ratings

March 2011 3 2011 Draft Version 3 Updated from the latest (2010/2011) LRAG Local Risk Assessment Guidance.

Jan 2012 3.1 (Final) Final Version agreed by the Risk Assessment Group & presented to GLRF on 16

th February 2012

May 2012 4 2012 Draft Version 4 Updated from the latest (2011/2012) LRAG (Local Risk Assessment Guidance)

August 2012 4.1 2012 Draft Version 4.1 Revised layout of forward pages, document updated following meeting of the Gwent LRF Risk Assessment Working Group 190712

Sept 2012 4.2 2012 Final Version 4.2

May-Sept 2013 5 2013 Draft Version 5 Updated from the latest (2012/2013) LRAG (Local Risk Assessment Guidance) and sanitised threat table updated

Oct – Dec 2013 5 2013 Further Risk Assessment updates following meetings of the Gwent LRF Risk Assessment Group

January 2014 5 2013 Final revisions and update presented to Gwent LRF Co-ordination Group on 17

th January 2014

Sept 2014 6 2014 Draft Version 6 updated from the latest (2014) LRMG (Local Risk Management Guidance)

Feb 2015 6 2014 Further Risk Assessment updates following meeting of the Gwent LRF Risk Assessment working Group on 3

rd February 2015

Feb 2015 6.1 2014 Final Draft presented to the meeting of the LRF on 13th February 2015 with final amendments

Feb 2015 6.2 2015 (Final) Version 6.2 (Final) agreed at the meeting of the LRF on 13

th

February 2015. Policy on Welsh language translation updated.

July 2015 7.0 Updated risk Matrix and Impact Scoring Scale

November 2015 7.1 Updated following the publication of the final version of the (2015) LRMG (Local Risk Management Guidance) including Annex B

December 2015 - January 2016

7.2 Further updates following the meeting of the Gwent LRF Risk Assessment working Group on 1st December 2015

February 2016 7.2 (Final) Version 7.2 agreed at the meeting of the LRF on 26

th February

2016.

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3. Overview and Executive Summary

As part of the risk assessment process, we have been considering the likelihood and impact of a range of hazards occurring within the Gwent Local Resilience Forum area (The area covered by the Gwent Police Service.) The Gwent Local Resilience Forum (LRF) includes representatives of all Category 1 and Category 2 responders

1 within the Gwent area and is chaired by the Chief

Constable, Gwent Police. It also includes representatives from agencies that are not included in the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 but are considered essential local planning partners (e.g. Military and Welsh Government).

The Gwent LRF formed a Risk Assessment Working Group, currently chaired by Mr. Bob Crimp, Head of Corporate Risk & Emergency Management Torfaen County Borough Council, to develop and maintain this CRR and associated risk assessment process.

The likelihood assessments relate to the risk occurring over a five-year period at the magnitude reflected within the outcome description. The magnitude is based on an assessment of a reasonable worse case scenario. As part of the risk assessment process, the Gwent LRF has been considering the likelihood and impact of a range of hazards occurring. This work – a statutory duty under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 – is an ongoing process and examples are provided for all of the hazards to illustrate the individual lead responsibility for the individual hazard or threat. The illustration (section 5) summarises the types of risks covered in both the Gwent Community Risk Register & the National Risk Register. Appendix 2 illustrates all the assessments in the Community Risk Register plotted onto a Risk Rating Matrix. This work, a statutory requirement under the Civil Contingencies Act, is an ongoing process and subject to continual review with the Gwent Community Risk Register formally published on an annual basis. The risk assessments included in the published register will only cover non-malicious events (i.e. hazards) rather than threats (i.e. terrorist incidents). This does not mean that we are not considering threats within our risk assessment work, but given the sensitivity of the information supporting these risk assessments and the potential for use by adversaries, specific details [beyond that provided overleaf and in the threat plausibility matrix in appendix 3] will not be made available via this document. However the restricted, Practitioners’ version, does consider deliberate ‘malicious’ events and threats. Typical hazard scenarios that are being considered include, for example: * Transport accidents ** * Natural Hazards & Severe weather * Flooding * Industrial accidents and environmental pollution * Human health * Animal health * Industrial technical failure

1 As defined by schedule 1 of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (c.36)

Bob Crimp (Risk Group Chair)

Chief Constable Jeff Farrar - (LRF Chair)

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The National Risk Register

The National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies (NRR) is the unclassified version of the National Risk Assessment (NRA), a classified assessment of the risks of civil emergencies facing the UK over the next five years The Threat Matrix in Appendix 3 gives an indication of the relative plausibility and impact of the malicious risks that are outlined in the National Risk Register, including attacks on crowded places, transport systems, and infrastructure, smaller scale attacks using non-conventional (chemical, biological, radiological) materials, cyber attacks on infrastructure and data confidentiality, and catastrophic terrorist attacks. In planning for emergencies Gwent LRF take into account the impact that these types of attack would have in the local area as much as we do the impacts of non-malicious, natural or accidental risks. For more information regarding threats and the current threat level, please visit: http://www.mi5.gov.uk For more information regarding the National Risk Register, please visit: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/419549/20150331_2015-NRR-WA_Final.pdf The inclusion of hazards or scenarios (i.e. the outcome descriptions) does not mean that the Local Resilience Forum believes the risk will materialise, or that if it were to do so, it would be at that scale and rating. The risk scenarios are rather reasonable worse case assumptions upon which our risk assessment is based. Risk assessment is not a static process and is subject to constant review. The information contained in this CRR will, as a result, be updated on an annual basis. Of the 97 risk assessments carried out for the ‘Gwent Community Risk Register’, 26 risks have been identified as either ‘High’ or ‘Very High’ and 33 risks have been considered as not appropriate to the Gwent Local Resilience Forum area and have been excluded. These risks fall into the following categories – Severe Weather, Transport, Industrial Technical Failures, Industrial Accidents and Environmental Pollution, Human Health, Structural Damage and Large Scale Fires. The Gwent Local Resilience Forum now has a website called “Gwent Prepared”. Readers of this document are encouraged to visit this website and review the section that deals with risk. This Community Risk Register is dovetailed to these user friendly pages on the website.

** The term ‘accident’ is consistent with the Local Risk Assessment Guidance 2005. However, on a local basis, the term ‘incident’ will be used.

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4. Production & update process of the Community Risk Register

This Community Risk Register is collectively owned by the Category 1 Responders (as defined by Schedule 1 to the Civil Contingencies Act 2004) within the Gwent Local Resilience Forum area. The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (‘The Act’) places a legal duty on Category 1 responders to produce a Community Risk Register. Section 2, sub-section 1 of the Act requires Category 1 responders ‘… from time to time assess the risk of an emergency occurring …’ and ‘…from time to time assess the risk of an emergency making it necessary or expedient for the person or body to perform any of its functions’. This should be linked to individual Category 1 responders’ processes of adding to (or modifying) their own individual plans. In the event of an emergency*, the Act requires Category 1 responders to activate an emergency plan. Before the activation of such a plan is necessary, two tests should be carried out. a) where the emergency would be likely to seriously obstruct its ability to perform its functions; and b) where the Category 1 responder considers its necessary or desirable to act to pervert, reduce,

control, or mitigate the emergency’s effects, or otherwise take action and would be unable to act without changing the deployment of its resources or acquiring additional resources.

This clearly implies that only serious emergencies need form part of a risk assessment process. The risk assessment process required need not cover large pre-planned events, as a risk assessment should form part of the planning stage. The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (Contingency Planning) Regulations 2005 give the legal requirements in relations to risk assessment in Part 3. These regulations place a responsibility on Category 1 responders to co-operate with each other in maintaining a Community Risk Register (CRR). Detailed guidance on the risk assessment process can be found within Chapter 4 (and its annexes) of the Emergency Preparedness guidance document which has been published by HM Government. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emergency-preparedness This guidance states that the risk assessment process is the first step in the emergency planning process in order to identify the risk applicable to the area and then plan according to the priorities identified. The process is divided into nine steps; these are:

Phases Description Steps and activities

Contextualisation Involves defining the nature and scope of the risk and agreeing how the risk management process will be undertaken locally

Step 1 – Define the local process and context

Risk assessment Covers the identification of those threats and hazards that present significant risks, analysis and assessment of their likelihood / plausibility and impacts, and the combination of these values to produce overall risk scores using a risk matrix (see Chapter 4).

Step 2 – Identification Step 3 – Analysis Step 4 – Evaluation

Risk treatment The UK’s approach to treatment within the context of civil emergencies is to produce planning

Step 5 – Planning assumptions for common local consequences and specific planning for the most

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assumptions which set out the common consequences expected by analysing the risks. This approach is augmented by specific planning for the most concerning risks. The current level of readiness is assessed using a capability assessment benchmarked against the planning assumptions to identify shortcomings through a gap analysis which supports decision-making on the priorities for contingency planning and capability development (see chapter 5).

concerning local risks Step 6 – Capability assessment Step 7 – Gap analysis Step 8 – Communicate and publish Step 9 – Monitor / review

The steps/activities outlined in the table above are described in more detail in the Local Risk Management Guidance for Civil Emergencies – 2015 starting in Chapter 3 (available to Local Risk Practitioners on Resilience Direct).

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5. Visualisation of the Community Risk Register

The illustration overleaf summarises the types of risks covered in both the Gwent Community Risk Register & the National Risk Register. It attempts to illustrate the breadth of the high-consequence risks we face. It also gives an indication of the relative likelihood/plausibility and impact of these types of risks in comparison to each other with the red ‘bubbles’ showing Threats/Risks based on plausibility and the blue ‘bubbles’ Risks based on likelihood. The individual ‘Bubbles’ represent each risk category therefore representing an average risk rating of all the individual assessments within each category. Where a significant variance occurs with an individual risk rating these risks have been listed individually. For example within the Risk Category ‘Severe Weather & Natural Hazards” there is a significant difference between the risk ratings for Flooding, Coastal Flooding, Severe Weather’ and the other forms of Natural Hazards covered in this category, therefore these have been given their own ‘bubble’ in order to highlight the differences.

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An illustration of the high consequence risks facing Gwent LRF

1 2 3 4 5

RELATIVE LIKELIHOOD/PLAUSABILITY

of occurring in the next 5 years

High

Transport

Accidents

Structural

Failures

International

Events

Cyber Attacks:

Infrastructure Terrorist

Attacks on

Infrastructure

TerroristAttacks on Crowded Places

Terrorist Attacks

on Transport

Systems

Catastrophic

Terrorist Attack

Industrial Accidents

& Environmental

Pollution

Public Disorder

Smaller Scale

CBR Attacks

Animal Health &

Plant Disease

Industrial Action

Human Health:

Pandemic Influenza

Human Health: Emerging Infectious Disease,

Legionella/Meningitis Outbreak

Industrial Technical Failure

Gwent Risks:

Legacy Mine

Workings

Gwent Risks:

Drought

Flooding: Inc. Fluvial, Flash/Surface

Water

Accident on

Motorways & Trunk

Roads

Coastal/Tidal

Flooding

Severe Weather Inc. Storms Gales,

Heavy Snow &

Heatwave

Other Natural Hazards Inc Severe Space Weather, Severe

volcanic eruption overseas, Air

Pollution & Severe Wildfires

High

Low

Low

OV

ER

AL

L R

EL

AT

IVE

IMP

AC

T S

CO

RE

Threats/Risks based on

Plausibility Risks based on Likelihood

1

2

3

4

5

Cyber Attacks:

Data

Confidentiality

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(Note Risk Identification codes for hazards are subdivided into:: ‘H’ – risks which will require a national as well as a local response (nationally defined); ‘HL’ – risks which would not ordinarily prompt a national response and would usually be dealt with locally (nationally defined); ‘L’ – risks with unique consequences that are very specific to a particular LRF, and are therefore not covered by the generic descriptions and consequences of H or HL risk (locally defined). Risk ID codes are followed by a sequential numerical suffix (either nationally defined for ‘H’ and ‘HL’ codes or locally defined for ‘L’ codes.)

Date of Revision: September 2015 Next review date: November 2017

UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

1. INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

NATIONAL RISKS ‘H’

H4 Fire or explosion at a range of industrial sites including fuel distribution sites or site storing flammable and/or toxic liquids in atmospheric pressure storage tanks

Fire or explosion at a fuel distribution site, or at a site storing flammable and/or toxic liquids

2 3 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements COMAH Plans

COMAH Top-Tier sites off-site emergency plans in place, COMAH Lower-Tier sites on-site emergency plans in place All relevant sites are registered with HSE and subject to periodic inspection, 3yr planning cycle for hazardous installations Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Chemical, Evacuation & Recovery Plans in place. Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Controls considered to be satisfactory and meeting legal requirements

2

SWF&RS Nov 2017

H7 Explosion at a high pressure gas pipeline

Local to site causing up to 100 fatalities and hospitalising up to 200 people.

1

3 Medium Emergency Plans for HP Gas Pipelines

Pipeline construction and installation are subject to Technical Standards which are the legal responsibility of the pipeline operator, and monitored by HSE. High pressure gas pipelines are required to have Pipeline

Controls considered to be satisfactory and meeting legal requirements

2

SWF&RS Nov2017

6. Community Risk Register

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Date of Revision: September 2015 Next review date: November 2017

UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

Joint Agency Arrangements

Emergency Plans – these are in place. National Grid plc has a national system of risk assessment for replacement of gas mains of iron construction; there is a rolling programme of upgrading distribution pipelines. Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

H9 Large Toxic Chemical Release Large toxic chemical release caused by release of chlorine or a number of other chemicals e.g. anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, refrigerated ammonia, sulphur di-oxide (or tri-oxide) gas. This incident arises from possible mechanical equipment/process failure or corrosion, and not necessarily involving fire or explosion.

3

3

High

Joint Agency Arrangements COMAH Plans Evacuation arrangements for public info etc

COMAH Top-Tier sites off-site emergency plans in place, COMAH Lower-Tier sites on-site emergency plans in place All relevant sites are registered with HSE and subject to periodic inspection, 3yr planning cycle for hazardous installations Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Chemical, Evacuation & Recovery Plans in place. Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

3

SWF&RS Nov 2017

H10 Radioactive substance release from a nuclear reactor

Site in the UK resulting in a degraded core with enhanced containment leakage through an open penetration with 1% loss of containment. Health countermeasures during the emergency phase required up to 30km from site

1 5 High Joint Agency Arrangements Evacuation arrangements for public info etc

Multi-agency Oldbury off-site plan in place for South Gloucestershire. Gwent LRF Oldbury Extendibility Arrangements

Distribution of stable iodine tablets to the general

2

LA Nov 2017

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Date of Revision: September 2015 Next review date: November 2017

UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

COMAH Plans

population within the Detailed Emergency Planning Zone (DPZ)

COMAH Top-Tier sites off-site emergency plans in place, COMAH Lower-Tier sites on-site emergency plans in place

Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements

Gwent LRF Recovery Plan

Gwent LRF Evacuation Plan

Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Individual Agency Generic Emergency Response Plans

HSE regulates this industry through its Nuclear Safety Directorate (NSD)

H11 Accidental exposure to radioactive material from incorrectly handled stolen sources

3 deaths after a month and 8 people requiring long term medical supervision. Up to 500 worried well from the vicinity of where the source was removed from its shielding may seek medical reassurance at doctors surgeries and hospitals. Limited environmental contamination but possibly a difficult recovery operation because of high dose rates around the radiation source and restricted access

2

1

Low Joint Agency Arrangements Evacuation arrangements for public info etc

Gwent LRF CBRN Plan

Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements

Government regulation on the use and storage of radioactive material. Holders of radioactive material are required to dispose of sources by returning to the manufacturers or to premises authorised by the EA/NRW to receive and hold the material.

2

NRW Nov 2017

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Date of Revision: September 2015 Next review date: November 2017

UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

Major scrap metal sites have installed detectors to guard against the risk of radioactive sources being received by accident Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

H14 Major contamination incident with widespread implications for the food chain.

There may be direct consumer and animal health effects arising from this incident. We assume a small number of fatalities and casualties although the public health

implications of food incidents vary widely, It should be noted that events such as these, that cause an increase in exposure to human carcinogens, raise the risk of fatality even though the casualty cannot be identified. Additionally there may be food production/marketing implications depending on scale and area affected (e.g. major shellfisheries, diary, livestock production areas). Potential direct animal and consumer health effects. Consumer confidence may also be affected leading to lost markets, and where staple products (e.g. bread or milk) are affected, potential panic buying.

5 2 Medium

Joint Agency Arrangem

ents

Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements

Gwent LRF CBRN & Chemical Plans Local Authority Environmental Health procedures and outbreak plans in place

Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

3

Public Health Wales

(PHW) Food Standards Agency (FSA)

Nov 2017

H46 Biological substance release during an unrelated work activity or industrial process (e.g. legionella release due to improperly maintained building environmental control systems)

Up to 10 fatalities and serious injuries or offsite impact resulting in up to 1000 hospital admissions.

5 2 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements

Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements

Local Authority Outbreak Plans in place Legionella Health & Safety Risk Assessment and plans as part of organisational duty of care. Joint Agency generic infectious diseases plan in place

Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

3

Public Health Wales (PHW)

Nov 2017

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Date of Revision: September 2015 Next review date: November 2017

UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

H61 Industrial Accident during remedial work on a legacy pond or silo facility at a civil nuclear installation holding large quantities of fissile material and radioactive waste

An industrial accident, initiated by an internal fault, which occurs during remedial work on a legacy silo facility resulting in a fire in a waste silo leading to partial structure failure and a significant release of radiological material.

1 4 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements Evacuation arrangements for public info etc COMAH Plans

Multi-agency Oldbury off-site plan in place for South Gloucestershire. Gwent LRF Oldbury Extendibility Arrangements

Distribution of stable iodine tablets to the general population within the Detailed Emergency Planning Zone (DPZ)

COMAH Top-Tier sites off-site emergency plans in place, COMAH Lower-Tier sites on-site emergency plans in place

Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements

Gwent LRF Recovery Plan

Gwent LRF Evacuation Plan

Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Individual Agency Generic Emergency Response Plans

HSE regulates this industry through its Nuclear Safety Directorate (NSD)

Under review for further consideration

2

LA Nov 2017

LOCAL RISKS ‘HL’

HL2 Localised industrial accident involving large toxic release (e.g. from a site storing large quantities of chlorine)

Up to 3km from site, causing up to 30 fatalities and up to 250 casualties

3 3 High

Joint Agency Arrangements Evacuation

COMAH Top-Tier sites off-site emergency plans in place, COMAH Lower-Tier sites on-site emergency plans in place All relevant sites are

2

SWF&RS Nov 2017

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Date of Revision: September 2015 Next review date: November 2017

UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

arrangements for public info etc COMAH Plans

registered with HSE and subject to periodic inspection, 3yr planning cycle for hazardous installations Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Chemical, Evacuation & Recovery Plans in place. Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

HL3 Localised industrial accident involving small toxic release

Up to 1km from site, up to 10 fatalities and 100 casualties 3 3 High

Joint Agency Arrangements Evacuation arrangements for public info etc COMAH Plans

COMAH Top-Tier sites off-site emergency plans in place, COMAH Lower-Tier sites on-site emergency plans in place All relevant sites are registered with HSE and subject to periodic inspection, 3yr planning cycle for hazardous installations Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Chemical, Evacuation & Recovery Plans in place. Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

2

SWF&RS Nov 2017

HL4 Major Pollution of surface waters and groundwater

Pollution incident impacting upon surface waters (inland and coastal waters) and groundwater. For example, could be caused by chemical spillage or release of a large quantity of untreated sewage, leading to persistent and/or extensive effect on water quality, major damage to aquatic ecosystems, closure of portable abstraction point(s), major impact on amenity (i.e. tourism) value, serious impact on human health

5 2 Medium

Joint Agency Arrangements

COMAH Plans Site Authorisation LA/NRW, EMIM Major Incident Plans National Guidance Documents/teams Pollution prevention visits. Regular testing and exercising

None Required At Present

3

NRW/DEFFRA

Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Chemical, Evacuation & Recovery Plans in place. Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

HL7 Industrial Explosion and Major Fires

Up to 1km around site causing up to 20 casualties, some of a serious nature. Explosions would cause primarily

crush/cuts & bruises type injuries, as well as burns

5

2 Medium

Joint Agency

Arrangements COMAH Plans

COMAH Top-Tier sites off-site emergency plans in place,

COMAH Lower-Tier sites on-site emergency plans in place All relevant sites are registered with HSE and subject to periodic inspection, 3yr planning cycle for hazardous installations Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Chemical, Evacuation & Recovery Plans in place. Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Considered Satisfactory

2

SWF&RS Nov 2017

HL28 Localised Fire or explosion at a fuel distribution site and/ or tank storage of flammable and/or toxic liquids

Up to 1km around the site, causing up to 15 fatalities and 200 casualties

2 3 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements

COMAH Top-Tier sites off-site emergency plans in place, COMAH Lower-Tier sites on-site emergency plans in place All relevant sites are registered with HSE and subject to periodic inspection, 3yr planning cycle for hazardous installations Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Chemical,

Controls considered to be satisfactory and meeting legal requirements

2

SWF&RS Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

Evacuation & Recovery Plans in place. Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

HL30 Localised explosion at a natural gas pipeline

Causing up to 100 fatalities and up to 100 casualties

1 3 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements

COMAH Top-Tier sites off-site emergency plans in place, COMAH Lower-Tier sites on-site emergency plans in place

All relevant sites are registered with HSE and subject to periodic inspection, 3yr planning cycle for hazardous installations Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Chemical, Evacuation & Recovery Plans in place. Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Controls considered to be satisfactory and meeting legal requirements

2

SWF&RS Nov 2017

HL33 Forest or Moorland Fire Forest or moorland fire across up to 50 hectares. Evacuation of up to 100 residential homes required. Transport infrastructure disrupted for up to a day due to smoke. Fatalities are possible, depending on the average recreational or occupational use of the area, with people needing medical assistance due to the proximity of the fire.

2 2 Medium

Joint Agency Arrangements

SWFRS implementation of new techniques for dealing with wildfires, including new equipment, understanding of wildfire behaviour reducing resources committed at incidents but resulting in a safe well managed approach to the resolution of an incident Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Evacuation & Recovery Plans in place. Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

None identified

2

SWF&RS Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

2. TRANSPORT ACCIDENTS

NATIONAL RISKS ‘H’

H16 Aviation accident over a semi-urban area

Loss of up to two aircraft and passengers, with debris over a semi-urban area.

1 4 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements

Control measures associated with the aircraft operating authorities and regulatory bodies, combined with the security aspects

RAF Post Crash Management awareness training completed for the LRF Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Evacuation & Recovery Plans in place. Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Review risk in the light of any aircraft accident affecting Gwent or neighbouring

areas.

2

LA (RAF) Nov 2017

H60 Road or rail tanker containing dangerous goods and/or “high consequence” dangerous goods – accident involving fire and explosion

Up to 250 fatalities and up to 5,000 requiring medical treatment for an incident involving high consequence dangerous goods. The explosion will cause varying degrees of damage to property and infrastructure depending on their distance from the incident. This risk would result in a toxic plume/gas cloud which would be harmful to the population resulting in evacuation of the immediate area. This risk could result in environmental contamination with associated environmental impacts. Depending on the nature and extent of the contamination there could be impacts on air, land, water, animal welfare, agriculture and waste management. This risk may require remediation and/or decontamination.

1 4 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements

Roads Policing/HAZMAT capability through Gwent Police OPS Support. Fire Service Hazardous Materials (HAZMAT) & Detection Identification & Monitoring (DIM) Capability Local authority emergency plans Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Chemical, Evacuation & Recovery Plans in place. Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Chemical Plan Update during 2016

5

HGP Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

LOCAL RISKS ‘HL’

HL8 Fire, flooding, stranding or collision involving a passenger vessel in or close to UK waters or on inland waterways, leading to the ship’s evacuation

Up to 50 fatalities and up to 100 casualties 1 3 Medium Operational organisational planning in place (fire fighting at sea & rescue at sea.

1

MCA Nov 2017

HL9 Aviation Accident Causing up to 50 fatalities and up to 250 casualties. 1 3 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements

Control measures associated with the aircraft operating authorities and regulatory bodies, combined with the security aspects RAF Post Crash Management awareness training completed for the LRF Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Evacuation & Recovery Plans in place. Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Review risk in the light of any aircraft accident affecting Gwent or neighbouring areas.

2

LA (RAF) Nov 2017

HL10 Local accident on motorways and major trunk roads

Multiple vehicle incident causing up to 10 fatalities and up to 20 casualties (internal injuries, fractures, possible burns); closure of lanes or carriage ways causing major disruption and delays

5

3

High Joint Agency Arrangements

Major incident plan. (Emergency services) Normal emergency response

procedures/Core Business

Competency of Emergency Services Local authority & SEWTRA emergency plans Active Traffic Management systems (M4) Brynglas & Gibraltar Tunnel Plans/Site specific plans

3

HGP Nov 2017

HL11 Railway Accident Up to 30 fatalities and up to 100 casualties (fractures, internal injuries – burns less likely). Possible loss of freight. Major disruption to rail line including possible closure of rail tunnel

1 3 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements

Generic Major Incident plans for all Blue Light Services and Health Sector in place Site Specific plan (Severn Rail

Considered Satisfactory

2

BTP Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

Tunnel) in place Site Specific plan (Caerphilly Railway tunnel) in place Network Rail Emergency Procedures and Plans in place Local Authority Mass Fatalities & Mortuary Plans in place Multi-Agency training Exercises provided by Network Rail / BTP ANPR equipped camera van deployed by BTP to Level Crossings as deterrent for misuse by users.

HL13 Maritime accident or deliberate blockade resulting in blockage of access to key port, estuary, maritime route for more than one month

Loss of port is likely to have an initial wider impact, but will quickly reduce as shippers seek alternative ports or methods of shipping. Economic impact on local dependent business

1 2 Low Joint Agency Arrangements

Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements

1 MCA Nov 2017

HL14 Local (road) accident involving transport of fuel / explosives

Multiple serious casualties with the possibility of multiple fatalities within vicinity of accident/explosion, depending on the average accident rate for the local road networks in that particular area. Area could require evacuating up to 1 km radius depending on substances involved. Potential release of up to 30 tonnes of liquid fuel into local environment, watercourses etc. Large quantities of firefighting media (foam) could impact on environment. Roads and access routes impassable for a time. Emergency access into/out of large populated areas becomes difficult or impossible.

2 3 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements

Roads Policing/HAZMAT capability through Gwent Police OPS Support. Fire Service Hazardous Materials (HAZMAT) & Detection Identification & Monitoring (DIM) Capability Local authority emergency plans Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Chemical, Evacuation & Recovery Plans in place. Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

None identified

2

SWF&RS Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

HL34 Fire, flooding, stranding or collision involving a passenger vessel in or close to UK waters leading to the ships evacuation or partial evacuation at sea

Up to 50 fatalities and 100 casualties 1

3 Medium Joint

Agency Arrangements

Operational organisational planning in place (fire fighting at sea & rescue at sea. Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements

1

MCA Nov 2017

HL37 Release of significant quantities of hazardous chemicals / materials as a result of major shipping accident

Fatalities and casualties unlikely. Significant environmental / ecological damage

1 3 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements

Operational organisational planning in place (fire fighting at sea & rescue at sea. Gwent Major Incident

Response Arrangements

1

MCA Nov 2017

3. NATURAL HAZARDS AND SEVERE WEATHER

NATIONAL RISKS ‘H’

H17 Severe Storms and Gales Storm force winds affecting multiple regions (for example Wales, West Midlands, East Midlands and East of England for at least 6 hours during a working day. Most inland, lowland areas experience mean speeds in excess of 55mph with gusts in excess of 85mph. Up to 50 fatalities and 500 casualties

4

2 Medium

Joint Agency Arrangements

Gwent LRF Severe Weather plan Local authority emergency plans Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan

2

LA Nov 2017

H18 Low Temperatures and Heavy Snow

Snow falling and lying over multiple regions for at least one week. After an initial fall of snow there is further snow fall on and off for at least 7 days. Most lowland areas experience some falls in excess 10cm, a depth of snow in excess of 30cm and a period of at least 7 consecutive days with daily mean temperature below -3C. Up to 30 fatalities and thousands of casualties, mainly due to trips slips and falls However there will be a large number of excess morbidity/mortality above the number in a normal winter. There is likely to be disruption to transport networks, businesses, power supply, telecommunications links and water supply, and there will also be school closures.

4 4 Very High

Joint Agency Arrangements

Gwent LRF Severe Weather plan Local authority emergency plans & prioritised road snow clearance plans Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan

2

LA Nov 2017

H48 Heat Wave Daily maximum temperatures in excess of 28oC and

minimum temperatures in excess of 15 oC over most of the

region for around 2 weeks at least 5 consecutive days where maximum temperatures exceed 32

oC. Up to 1000

fatalities and 5000 casualties, mainly amongst the elderly.

4 4 Very High

Joint Agency Arrangements

Gwent LRF Severe Weather plan Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements

Following the withdrawal in Wales from the Met Office Heat Health Watch alert

5

Health Board

Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

There is likely to be disruption to power supply, telecommunications links and transport infrastructure during the 2 weeks.

Gwent LRF Recovery Plan

mechanism, revisions are required to the trigger levels within the Gwent LRF Severe Weather Plan

H19 Flooding: Major Coastal and tidal flooding affecting parts of more than two UK regions

Combinations of high natural tides, a major sea surge, and significant onshore waves resulting from a very low depression system creating gale force winds and heavy rainfall Many coastal regions and tidal reaches of rivers affected by overtopping or failure (breach) of coastal and/or estuary defences, plus consequential ‘tide locking’ of gravity drainage systems.

3 5 Very High

Joint Agency Arrangements

Major Emergency Plan General evacuation and recovery arrangements

Local Flood Warning Plan for the Area Flood Warnings Flood Response Specific arrangements for high risk areas Gwent LRF Flooding Arrangements. Individual Agency Flood Response Procedures Gwent Levels Flood & Evacuation Plans Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Assist Natural Resources Wales in take-up of automated voice

messaging for use in warning local residents and encourage better flood preparedness in communities. Work with Land Drainage on the mapping and identification of ‘flooding hotspots’ on becks and other watercourses. “The Gwent Coastal

levels flooding

contingency plans

have been developed

on a local basis as

far as is reasonable

by the GLRF

working groups. A

number of strategic

level pan LRF issues

were identified and

the assistance of

Welsh Government

requested in their

resolution. Through

the WRF flood

group it has been

determined to

conduct an exercise

to examine these and

5

NRW Nov 2017

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Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

other issues. The

timeline for this

exercise is early

2015. In the interim

the focus will be

upon ensuring the

exercise provides

adequate

opportunities to

progress these

issues. Consequently

no further specific

plan development is

anticipated until the

exercise report is

published.”

H21 Flooding: Severe fluvial flooding affecting more than two geographical regions

A single massive fluvial event or concurrent events across multiple geographic regions following a sustained period of heavy rainfall extending over two weeks (perhaps combined with snow melt and surface water flooding). The event would include severe fluvial flooding affecting a large, single urban area. There may also be combined or additional impacts from surface water flooding. Closure of primary transport routes. Infrastructure failure. Loss of essential services (gas, electricity and telecoms) to 250,000 homes and business for up to 14 days. Sediment movement and disruption to water supplies. Significant regional economic damage. Across urban and rural areas (with a greater proportion occurring in urban areas) flooding of up to 50,000 properties (homes and businesses) for up to 10 days. Up to 10 fatalities and 500 casualties and 20 missing persons (“missing” means not accounted for during the first 48 hours, before Police can reunite with family or friends). Up to 55,000 people needing assistance with evacuation. Up to 6,000 people in need of rescue or assistance in-situ.

3 3 High

Joint Agency Arrangements

Major Emergency Plan Generic Flooding Plan Major Flood Incident Plan for Rivers Local Flood Warning Plan for the Area Flood Warnings Flood Response . Gwent LRF Flooding Arrangements. Individual Agency Flood Response Procedures Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan

Assist Natural Resources Wales in take-up of automated voice messaging for use in warning local residents and encourage better flood preparedness in communities Work with Land Drainage on the mapping and identification of ‘flooding hotspots’ on becks and other watercourses

2

NRW Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

H55 Severe effusive (gas rich) volcanic eruption overseas

A severe volcanic eruption, generating large amounts of gas and ash over a 5 month period affecting the UK and Northern Europe.

3 3 High (This Risk Rating is in line with the suggested national risk)

Joint Agency Arrangements Major Emergency Plans BCM

STAC Arrangements in place Food protection legislation Met Office Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre & Natural Hazards partnership Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements Organisational Business Continuity Plans

Encourage Business Continuity planning On-going understanding of the impact of the Risk at National level which will influence any local improvements required

2 PHW/LA/Met Office

Nov 2017

H56 Severe space weather The reasonable worst-case scenario is based upon space weather of approximately the same magnitude as the Carrington Event of 1859, lasting for 1-2 weeks. This period of 1-2 weeks is made up of a number of different types of solar phenomena, including coronal mass ejections, solar radiation storms, solar flares and solar radio bursts.

4 3 High (This Risk Rating is in line with the suggested national risk.)

BCM Plans Major Emergency Plans Joint Agency Arrangements

National Grid: The more likely impacts on the electrical power grid would arise from voltage instability leading to a local or, if severe enough, a national blackout. National Grid has well established plan for this type of event which is exercised regularly. Although some form of rota disconnection (Black Start) may be necessary to ensure power is available until repairs are made.

Met Office 24/7 forecasting capability.

Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning &

Engagement with Category 2 Responders in particular utility providers to determine the Local LRF risk profile Implementation of National Guidance when received and its impacts on Local Business Continuity Arrangements and Contingency Planning

2 Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

Informing Arrangements Organisational Business Continuity Plans/procedures Organisational Major Incident Plans

H58 Severe Wildfires Severe wildfire spreading over an area of 1500 hectares at an urban-rural interface and lasting for 7 to 10 days. At any one time during the incident period, a fire front covering 20 hectares will burn and be likely to demonstrate extreme fire behaviour, with a further 100 hectares of vegetation smouldering with the risk of a secondary burn-back.

1 2 Low Joint Agency Arrangements

SWFRS have implemented new techniques for dealing with wildfires, these have included new equipment, understanding wildfire behaviour reducing resources committed at incidents but resulting in a safe well managed approach to the resolution of an incident.

No additional specific LRF requirements

2 SWFRS Nov 2017

H62 Health Impacts of poor air quality either from high ground level ozone or fine particulate matter (PM)

Air pollution harms human health and the environment. During an air quality event high pollution can lead to significant health risks including premature mortality and hospital admissions.

4 3 High Under Development

PHW/NRW & Met Office

Nov 2017

LOCAL RISKS ‘HL’

HL16 Local coastal / tidal flooding (affecting more than one Region)

Sea surge, spring tides, gale force winds and/or heavy rainfall affecting more than one Region, some defences overtopped or failing at multiple locations. Flooding of 1000 to 10,000 properties for up to 14 days. Up to 20 fatalities, 300 casualties and up to 200 missing persons. Up to 50,000 people (including tourists) in coastal villages and towns evacuated from flooded sites. People stranded over a large area and up to 5,000 people in need of rescue. Up to 10,000 people needing assistance with sheltering for up to 12 months. Multi-agency response invoked, possible large scale evacuation required. Suddenness of failure to defences would not be possible to predict.

3 4 Very High

Joint Agency Arrangements

Major Emergency Plan General evacuation and recovery arrangements Local Flood Warning Plan for the Area Flood Warnings Flood Response Specific arrangements for high risk areas Gwent Flood Plans. Individual Agency Flood Response Procedures Gwent Levels Flood &

Assist Natural Resources Wales in take-up of automated voice messaging for use in warning local residents and encourage better flood preparedness in communities Work with Land Drainage on the mapping and identification of ‘flooding hotspots’ on becks and other watercourses

5

NRW Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

Evacuation Plans Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

HL17 Local coastal / tidal flooding

(in one region)

Sea surge, high tides and/or gale force winds affecting the

coastline and one Region, a defence system overtopped or failing at a single location. Localised impact with infrastructure affected and up to 1000 properties flooded for up to 14 days. Up to 10 fatalities, 150 casualties and up to 100 missing persons. Up to 20,000 people (including tourists) in coastal villages and towns evacuated from flooded sites. People stranded over a large area and up to 2,000 people in need of rescue. Up to 3,000 people needing assistance with sheltering for up to 12 months. Multi-agency response invoked with some local evacuation and cordoning off of affected areas.

4 4 Very High

Joint

Agency Arrangements

Major Emergency Plan General evacuation and recovery arrangements Local Flood Warning Plan for the Area Flood Warnings Flood Response Specific arrangements for high risk areas in Gwent Flood Plans. Individual Agency Flood Response Procedures Gwent Levels Flood & Evacuation Plans Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Assist Natural

Resources Wales in take-up of automated voice messaging for use in warning local residents and encourage better flood preparedness in communities Work with Land Drainage on the mapping and identification of ‘flooding hotspots’ on becks and other watercourses

5

Nov 2017

HL18 Local/Urban Flooding (Fluvial or surface run-off)

A sustained period of heavy rainfall extending over two weeks, perhaps combined with snow melt, resulting in flash flooding steadily rising river levels across entire counties and could threaten a large urban town. Localised flooding of 1000 to 10,000 properties for 2-7 days. Up to 15 fatalities and 150 casualties. Up to 15,000 people evacuated. Up to 500 people stranded over a large area and in need of

3 4 Very High

Joint Agency Arrangements

Major Emergency Plan; Major flood incident Plan, Natural Resources Wales– ‘Local flood warning plan for area’,

Assist Natural Resources Wales in take-up of automated voice messaging for use in warning local residents and

2

NRW Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

rescue. There would be major impact on road and rail links, making them impassable for up to 5 days. Impact on infrastructure includes: some buildings collapse, water damage, road and bridge damage. Sediment movement and contamination of water supplies

Flood warnings and flood response. Gwent Flood Plans. Individual Agency Flood Response Procedures Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

encourage better flood preparedness in communities Work with Land Drainage on the mapping and identification of ‘flooding hotspots’ on becks and other watercourses

HL19 Local fluvial flooding A sustained period of heavy rainfall extending over two weeks, perhaps combined with snow melt, resulting in steadily rising river levels within a region. Localised flooding of 100 to 1,000 properties for 2-7 days. Up to 5 fatalities and 50 casualties. Up to 5,000 people evacuated. Up to 200 people stranded over a large area and in need of rescue. There would be some impact on minor roads and some A roads and trunk roads impassable for a time. Some main rail lines may need to be closed for a week (for repairs etc).

4 3 High

Joint Agency Arrangements

Major flood incident Plan, Natural Resources Wales – ‘Local flood warning plan for area’, Flood warnings and flood response. Gwent Flood Plans. Individual Agency Flood Response Procedures Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Assist Natural Resources Wales in take-up of automated voice messaging for use in warning local residents and encourage better flood preparedness in communities Work with Land Drainage on the mapping and identification of ‘flooding hotspots’ on becks and other watercourses

2

NRW Nov 2017

HL20 Localised, extremely hazardous flash flooding

Heavy localised rainfall in steep valley catchments leading to extremely hazardous flash flooding. (e.g. high velocities and depths). Likely that no flood defences in place. Possibly no flood warning service available / or suddenness of event means timely flood warnings are not possible. Flooding of up to 200 properties. (NB: the outcome is essentially the same as H44 – Dam or reservoir failure)

5

3

High Joint Agency Arrangements

Major Emergency Plan; Major flood incident Plan, Natural Resources Wales – ‘Local flood warning plan for area’,

Assist Natural Resources Wales in take-up of automated voice messaging for use in warning local residents and

2

NRW Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

Flood warnings and flood response. Gwent Flood Plans. Individual Agency Flood Response Procedures Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

encourage better flood preparedness in communities Work with Land Drainage on the mapping and identification of ‘flooding hotspots’ on becks and other watercourses

4. STRUCTUAL

NATIONAL RISKS ‘H’

H44 Major reservoir dam failure / collapse

Collapse without warning resulting in almost instantaneous flooding. Significant movement of debris (including vehicles) and sediment. Complete destruction of some residential and commercial properties and serious damage of up to 500 properties. Several thousand other properties could be flooded. Whilst there are a small number of reservoirs which could potentially put thousands of lives at risk, a sensible planning assumption is for up to 200 fatalities and up to 1000 casualties. Up to 50 missing persons and people stranded. Hazardous recovery amongst collapsed infrastructure and debris. Water supply to homes and business is lost. Up to 200 people need temporary accommodation for 2-18 months.

1 5 High Joint Agency Arrangements Specific Off-Site emergency plans required for identified high risk reservoirs Generic Gwent LRF Reservoir Inundation Plan Supported by

Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Specific Off-Site emergency plans required for identified high risk reservoirs Generic Gwent LRF Reservoir Inundation Plan Supported by specific planning for reservoirs if different from those already identified Reservoir inundation mapping Areas at risk of impact identified/High consequence risk reservoirs identified Generic off-site emergency plans where required Specific off-site emergency

2

NRW Nov 2017

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Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

specific planning for reservoirs if different from those already identified (2012)

plans where required Regular inspections Other responder organisations major emergency plans Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

LOCAL RISKS ‘HL’

HL21 Land Movement (i.e. caused by tremors or landslides)

Roads and access routes impassable for a time. Emergency access into/out of large populated areas difficult or impossible; severe congestion over wide geographical area. Loss of power and other essential services over wide geographical area. Potential for a number of persons to be trapped or missing either in landslide itself and/or in collapsed structures. A number of fatalities are possible depending on the size and location of land movement, and the limitations of emergency access to injured persons.

2

3 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements

Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements Local Authority Emergency Plans Gwent Police Contingency Plans Identification of Care Centres Site specific plans in place where required. Fire Service Urban Search & Rescue capabilities (USAR)

2

LA Nov 2017

HL22 Building Collapse Potential for a number of persons to be trapped or missing. Localised loss of power and other essential services. Local access routes affected due to road closures. Depending on the size and construction of building, and occupation rates, there will always remain the possibility of fatalities or serious casualties.

2

3 Medium Joint

Agency Arrangements

Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Fire Service Urban Search & Rescue capabilities (USAR)

None identified

2

SWF&RS Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

UK Search & Rescue Teams Major incident plan. (Emergency services) Normal emergency response procedures Local authority emergency plans

HL23 Bridge Closure or Collapse Roads, access routes and transport infrastructure

impassable for considerable length of time. Severe congestion over wide geographical area. Emergency access into/out of large populated areas severely restricted. Potential for a number of persons to be trapped or missing.

1 3 Medium

Joint

Agency Arrangements

Gwent Major Incident

Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements Fire Service Urban Search & Rescue capabilities (USAR)

UK Search & Rescue Teams

Major incident plan. (Emergency services)

Normal emergency response procedures

Local authority emergency plans

None identified

2

SWF&RS Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

5. HUMAN HEALTH

NATIONAL RISKS

H23 Influenza Type Disease (Pandemic) Each pandemic is different and the nature of the virus and

its impacts cannot be known in advance. Previous pandemics have led to different outcomes. Based on understanding of previous pandemic, a pandemic is likely to occur in one or more waves possibly weeks and months apart. Each wave may last between 12-15 weeks. Up to half the population could be affected. All ages may be affected, but until the virus emerges, we cannot know which groups will be most at risk.

4 5 Very High

Joint Agency Arrangements Gwent Interagency Contingency plan for Pandemic Flu

Revised and updated Gwent Interagency Contingency plan for Pandemic Flu. (Improvements to the Gwent LRF Pandemic Influenza Plan were implemented following Exercise Cygnus). BCM arrangements in place Links into Wales Infectious Diseases Framework New guidelines by Welsh Government Generic planning for Vulnerable Persons integrated into Gwent Flu Plan and Gwent Evacuation plan Specific Potentially Vulnerable Persons Planning within individual organisations Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements (GMIRA) plan Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements Gwent LRF Mass Fatalities Plan

None Required at present time

1

Public Health Wales (PHW)

Nov 2017

H24 Emerging infectious disease Based upon the experience of the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2002, the worst case likely impact of such an outbreak originating outside the UK would be cases occurring amongst returning travellers and their families and close contacts, with spread to health care workers within hospital setting.

3 3 High Joint Agency Arrangements

Link to Wales infectious diseases framework BCM arrangements in place. Gwent Major Incident

Gwent LRF Infectious Diseases Plan 5

Public Health Wales (PHW)

Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

Response Arrangements (GMIRA) plan Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements Gwent LRF Mass Fatalities Plan

LOCAL RISKS ‘HL’ HL24 Localised legionella /

meningitis outbreak Localised outbreak of a disease which could cause Approximately 500 identified cases leading to 20 fatalities.

4 3 High

Joint Agency Arrangements

Legionella Health & Safety Risk Assessment and plan as part of organisational duty of care. Joint agency Public Protection/Environmental Health Joint Operational planning Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements (GMIRA) plan Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

No additional specific LRF requirements

2

Public Health Wales (PHW)

Nov 2017

6. ANIMAL HEALTH AND PLANT DISEASE

H25 Outbreak of exotic notifiable disease in animals (including birds).

There are over 30 notifiable diseases, many of which have never been seen in the UK. Notifiable diseases are those, which is suspected must be reported to the local office of the Animal Health Veterinary Laboratories agency (AHVLA). Notifiable diseases can either be “endemic” (those that are not normally present in the UK, but can be introduced for example via illegal imports or by wild birds e.g. Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), avian influenza (AI, commonly referred to as “bird flu”)). Some endemic and exotic diseases are also zoonotic (they can pass between animals and humans, such as rabies).

3 2 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements

Animal Health Act 1981 (Section 15(1) –“any person having in their possession or under their charge an animal affected or suspected of having one of these diseases must, with all practicable speed, notify that fact to a police constable”. Great Britain and Northern Ireland Contingency Plan for

Establishment of a LRF Task & Finish Group to identify potential capability gaps by challenging existing control measures

4

LA/ AHVLA

Nov 2017

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Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

Exotic notifiable animal disease outbreaks can vary in size from a single affected animal to a major epidemic affecting hundreds or thousands of premises.

Exotic Notifiable Diseases of Animals (2012) Number of disease control strategies including: Notifiable Avian Disease Control Strategy for Great Britain Foot and Mouth disease control strategy for Great Britain Rabies disease control strategy for England and Wales UK Bluetongue control strategy African Horse Sickness control strategy for Great Britain Classical Swine Fever disease control strategy for Great

Britain African Swine Fever disease control strategy for Great Britain Welsh Government Contingency Plan for Exotic Animal Diseases (Oct 2014) Pan Wales Response Plan (Draft 2012) Defra Contingency Plan for Exotic Notifiable Diseases of Animals (March 2014) Welsh Government Overview of Emergency Preparedness for Exotic Animal Diseases

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

Welsh Government Framework Response Plan for Exotic Animal Diseases Pan Wales Response Plan (Draft 2010) Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Individual Agency Major Incident Plans Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

LOCAL RISKS ‘HL’

HL43 Outbreak of plant disease g.g.chalara Dieback of Ash & Phytophthora Ramorum Disease of Larch Trees)

Major outbreak of plant disease. Damage to native plants & ecosystems (with knock on effects to rural economy should diseases become widespread within the tree population). Controls likely to be imposed on industry with particular impact on the forestry and nursery stock sectors.

3

1 Low

Welsh Government Disease Management strategy for the outbreak of the tree disease, Phytophthora Ramorum that has been spreading widely throughout larch in western Britain and Ireland

None Identified 1

NRW Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

7. INDUSTRIAL ACTION

NATIONAL RISKS ‘H’

H30

Emergency services: loss of emergency fire and rescue cover because of industrial action.

Emergency services: loss of emergency fire and rescue cover because of industrial action and the failure of fire and rescue authorities to have adequate business continuity arrangements in place to maintain service response.

5 2 Medium Fire & Rescue authorities must have effective business continuity arrangements in place to meet the full range of service delivery risks.

SWFRS Business Continuity Arrangements in Place (linked in to national contingency arrangements) Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Individual Agency Business Continuity, fire safety and health & Safety plans in place GLRF Recovery Plan

No additional specific LRF requirements

2 SWFRS Nov 2017

H31 Actual or threatened significant disruption to fuel supplies including as a result of industrial action by tanker drivers or, refinery staff, or effective blockades at key refineries / terminals by protestors.

Retail filling stations, depending on the extent of the disruption and their locations, and assuming no panic buying would likely run out of fuel in less than a week. Oil terminals, for example those supplying emergency services and critical supply chains, would also face reduced deliveries, and it is likely that they would progressively begin to run short of fuel. Food haulage companies would run out of fuel within approximately 10 days. In the event of panic buying, impact especially on forecourts would be significantly more severe. Panic buying results in substantially increased sales but the level of the increase will vary depending on the specific circumstances. During a ballot for a national strike of tanker drivers, for example, buying peaked just above double usual volumes for a short period in spring 2012. This level of panic buying would lead to forecourt stock-outs which might be severe if increased buying behaviour were to last for 2 days or more. Replenishment of sites following a disruption could take between 3 - 4 days, largely depending on the extent of impact. The extent of disruption would depend on the extent to which deliveries of fuel to customers could be maintained during the period of disruption.

3 3 High Joint Agency Arrangements BCM

National Emergency Plan for Fuel (NEP-F) GLRF Fuel Resilience Arrangements Organisational Business Continuity Plans. Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements (GMIRA) plan Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Development of a supporting plan for fuel resilience in the event that the NEP-F is not evoked

3

LA/HGP Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

H33 National strike action by prison officers

A single unofficial strike by prison officers nationally lasting more than 24 hours and resulting in a serious shortfall in the number of personnel available to operate and maintain control of prisons, resulting in a real risk of concerted indiscipline in the public sector prison estate and/or serious disruption to the Criminal Justice System.

2 1 Low

Gwent Police have a planned Police Response to Industrial Action by Prison Officers which would be reviewed if pending industrial action was announced

None Identified

1

HGP Nov 2017

H35 Industrial action by key rail or London Underground workers

Strike action by key workers (e.g. signallers) resulting in the near-total shutdown of the national rail network or about ¾

of the London Underground (LU)network. In both cases severe disruption would last for a week as part of a 3 month campaign.

1 2 Low

Joint Agency Arrangements

Industry Contingency plans in place and regularly monitored

Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements (GMIRA) plan

1

BTP Nov 2017

LOCAL RISKS ‘HL’

HL42 Loss of cover due to industrial action by workers providing a service critical to the preservation of life (such as emergency service workers)

A number of three day strikes with significant support over a two month period affecting a single emergency service

4 1 Low

Under Further Consideration

1

LA/HGP Nov 2017

8. PUBLIC DISORDER

NATIONAL RISKS ‘H’

H57 Large scale public disorder in multiple sites in a single city occurring concurrently over several days

Large scale outbreaks of disorder in multiple sites concurrently, within a single city over a number of days.

2 2 Medium

Joint Agency Arrangements

National Police Co-ordination centre (NPOCC) BCM arrangements for each organisation Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent Police Major incident

2

HGP Nov 2017

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Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

plan Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Police National Mutual Aid Plan Police Force Mobilisation Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

9. INTERNATIONAL EVENTS

NATIONAL RISKS ‘H’

H13 Foreign nuclear accident affecting the UK.

An overseas nuclear incident whose impact reaches the south coast of the UK. The outcome will be dependent on the weather conditions. Outcomes include: the potential requirement for sheltering across some of southern England with initial food restrictions (using the existing European Council Food Intervention Levels (CFIL) criteria) over an area of up to c.150,000km2. Surface water supplies and countryside access restrictions would also be enforced until monitoring and clean-up are carried out.

1 2 Low

Joint Agency Arrangements

Multi-agency Oldbury off-site plan in place for South Gloucestershire . Gwent LRF Oldbury Extendibility Arrangements - could be expanded to assist with an overseas incident Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements Individual Agency Generic Emergency Response Plans.

None at present 2

LA Nov 2017

H37

Influx of destitute/vulnerable British Nationals who are not normally resident in the UK and cannot be accommodated by family/friends

Up to 10,000 British Nationals (BNs) not normally resident in the UK, returning to UK within a 3-4 week period following conventional war, widespread civil unrest or sustained terrorism campaign against British and other Western nationals of whom around 1% require statutory support. The consequence management of such support included housing, health services and access to welfare.

5 1 Low

Joint Agency Arrangements

Gwent Major Emergency Response Arrangements

1

RISK GROUP

Nov 2017

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Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

H54 Disruption to aviation as a consequence of volcanic ash.

Volcanic ash incursions for up to 25 days resulting in sporadic and temporary closures of significant parts of UK airspace for up to a total of 15 days during a three month eruption period. The entire UK mainland and potentially other parts of Europe could be affected for up to 10 of these days. A single period of closure within the 3 month eruptive episode may last up to 12 consecutive days, depending on

meteorological conditions.

4 2 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements

Gwent Major Incident Response Arrangements Met Office Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre & Natural Hazards Partnership

Individual Agency Business Continuity Plans

No additional specific LRF requirements

2 LA Nov 2017

10. INDUSTRIAL TECHNICAL FAILURE

NATIONAL RISKS ‘H’

H39 Failure of water infrastructure or loss of drinking water or accidental contamination with a non-toxic contaminant

Loss of or non-availability for drinking, of the piped water supply, for a population of up to 350,000 for more than 24 hours and up to two week due to an accident

2 3 Medium

Specific Joint Agency Arrangements for distribution of drinking water

Water Industry Act 1991 Security and Emergency Measures Direction 1998 Gwent LRF Water Distribution Plan Water Supplier Continuity Plans Business Continuity Plans Gwent Major Emergency Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

1

LA/ Utilities Group

Nov 2017

H40 Disruption or loss of telecommunication Systems

Loss of fixed and mobile telecommunications (both voice service and internet access) for up to 100,000 people for up to 72 hours. Domestic and business customers would be affected; the impact on businesses would depend on the extent of resilience purchased (larger companies are more

3 3 High Joint Agency Arrangements

Resilient Telecoms Group work stream Resilient Telecommunications Plan for the Gwent LRF

3

LA Nov 2017

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Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

likely to have high levels of resilience). Service impacts would vary and will depend on the nature of the incident – for both mobile and landline the geographical area affected should be restricted to that served by the exchange (although impacts can sometimes be geographically remote from the incident), outage to landline voice may also affect landline data (and vice versa). A mobile data outage would not necessarily affect voice traffic (and vice versa).

Loss of 999/112 Telecommunications Contingency Plan Resilience Direct implemented and operational

Sponsor Privilege Access schemes & Co-ordinate MTPAS Audit. Individual Agency Business Continuity Plans Gwent Major Emergency Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

H41 Total failure of GB’s national electricity transmission network

Total blackout for up to 3-5 days due to loss of the National electricity Transmission System.. 3 days is best time (e.g. in summer). If there is damage to the network (say from storms) this timescale could be extended up to 5 days. Possible loss of life support machines, possible civil unrest due to no alarms or street lighting non-functioning gas central heating systems, rail transport, water supplies and mobile (PMT) telecommunications etc. Back up generators may be available for limited time for individual businesses. .

3 4 Very High

Joint Agency Arrangements

Critical Services Business Continuity Planning in Place Multi-Agency Joint Operation and Intervention Programme to combat copper cable thefts from utility company assets Individual Agency Business Continuity Plans Gwent Major Emergency Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements Resilient Telecommunications Plan for the Gwent LRF

Loss of 999/112 Telecommunications Contingency Plan

Share best practice on Business Continuity Planning

2

LA/WPD Nov 2017

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Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

Gwent Fuel Plan GLRF Fuel Resilience Arrangements

H45 Disruption to Regional Electricity Distribution or Transmission Network/System

Total failure of the electricity network over an entire region of GB occurring during the working week and lasting for 24 hours.

3 3 High Joint Agency Arrangements

Critical Services Business Continuity Planning in Place Multi-Agency Joint Operation and Intervention Programme to combat copper cable thefts from utility company assets

Individual Agency Business Continuity Plans Gwent Major Emergency Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements Resilient Telecommunications Plan for the Gwent LRF Loss of 999/112 Telecommunications Contingency Plan Gwent Fuel Plan GLRF Fuel Resilience Arrangements

Share best practice on Business Continuity Planning

2

LA/WPD Nov 2017

H59 Technological failure of the banking system

Affecting one major UK retail banking group, including all of its operations, lasting for 2-3 days and disruption lasting for up to a week

3 2 Medium

Gwent LRF Recovery Plan

Under Consideration

1

Nov 2017

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Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

11. RISKS SPECIFIC TO THE GWENT LRF AREA (‘L’ RISKS)

L72 Legacy Mine Workings Threat of a no-notice surface mining hazard causing up to 5 fatalities and up to 50 casualties.

1 3 Medium Joint Agency Arrangements

Gwent Major Emergency Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

Fire Service Urban Search & Rescue capabilities (USAR) Normal Emergency Response Procedures Major Incident Plans L.A Emergency Plans Site Specific Plans in place where required

2 LA Nov 2017

L73

Drought

Shortage of water for people, agriculture, industry or the environment country wide

4

3

High

Joint Agency Arrangements

Welsh Water drought plan Regional drought plan South East Area (Natural Resources Wales) drought plan Severe Weather Plan in Place Monitoring of drought order sites and whole river network Regular liaison between water company and NRW Water Resource team Regional computer modelling to predict pressure points in supply network Potential assessment and granting of Drought Orders & Permits Potential Section 57 Spray Irrigation restrictions Potential publicity campaigns Gwent LRF Water Distribution Plan

Gwent Major Emergency

On-going annual review of South East area drought plan On-going annual review of drought monitoring program 3

NRW Nov 2017

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UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-hood

Impact Risk Rating

Capability

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (with Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Responsibility

Review Date

Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recovery Plan Gwent LRF Warning & Informing Arrangements

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7. Exclusions Table

The Gwent LRF RAWG has excluded the following hazard or a threat from the Community Risk Register as it was considered that either: the hazard or threat is not an issue covered by the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 the hazard or threat is greater than the planning assumptions anticipated for the Gwent LRF area the hazard or threat does not physically exist within the Gwent LRF area

Date of Revision: September 2015 Risk Ref

Code.

UK Ref.

Risk Category Sub-Category Hazard and threat description including scale

1.1 H1 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

Fire or explosion at a gas LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) or LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) terminal (or associated onshore feedstock pipeline) or flammable gas storage site

Up to 3km around site causing up to 500 fatalities and 1500 casualties. Gas terminal event likely to be of short duration once feed lines are isolated; event at a storage site could last for days if the explosion damaged control equipment

1.4 H2 Industrial Accidents and Environmental Pollution

Fire or explosion at an onshore ethylene gas pipeline

Up to 3km around site causing up to 500 fatalities and up to 1500 casualties

1.6 H3 Industrial Accidents and Environmental Pollution

Fire or explosion at an oil refinery Up to 3km around site causing up to 500 fatalities and up to 1500 casualties. Depending on the location and size of the release, the fire could burn for several days.

1.5 HL26 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Localised fire or explosion at an onshore ethylene gas pipeline

Up to 1km around site, causing up to 150 fatalities and 450 casualties

1.7 HL27 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Localised fire or explosion at an oil refinery Up to 1km around site, causing up to 150 fatalities and 500 casualties

1.2 HL1 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Fire or explosion at a gas terminal or involving a gas pipeline

Up to 3km around site causing up to 10 fatalities and 100 casualties

1.11 H5 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Fire or explosion at an onshore fuel pipeline Up to 1km around site causing up to 100 fatalities and up to 500 casualties.

1.12 H6 Industrial Accidents and Environmental Pollution

Fire or explosions at an offshore oil/gas platform

Local to site causing up to 200 fatalities and up to 200 casualties.

1.15 H8 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Very Large Toxic Chemical Release Up to 10km from site causing up to 2000 fatalities and 10000 casualties. Toxic release could be due to loss of containment of chlorine – or a number of other chemicals, , e.g. anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, refrigerated ammonia, sulphur di-oxide (or tri-oxide) gas.

1.22 H12 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Biological substance release from facility where pathogens are handled deliberately (e.g. pathogen release from containment laboratory)

Up to 10 fatalities and serious injuries or offsite impact requiring up to 1000 hospital admissions

16 HL5 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Major Land Contamination Incident Pollution incident (e.g. chemical spillage) leading to persistent and/or extensive effect on land quality, major damage to terrestrial ecosystems, property, amenity (i.e. tourism) value and major damage to agriculture/commerce, serious impact on human health

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Date of Revision: September 2015 Risk Ref

Code.

UK Ref.

Risk Category Sub-Category Hazard and threat description including scale

17 HL6 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Major Air Quality Incident

Pollution incident (for example uncontrolled emission from an industrial facility or uncontrolled release of landfill gas) leading to persistent and/or extensive effect on air quality, major damage to local ecosystem, major effect on amenity (i.e. tourism) value and serious impact on human health

N/A H20 Severe Weather Flooding: Major Fluvial

A single large urban area (parts of London, Nottingham, Manchester, Leeds etc) flooded as a result of defence failure, causing a single location to be severely affected with high risk to life and little response time. It is possible no warnings would have been issued in time. Flooding of 10000+ properties for 7 to 21 days. Potential loss of life. Significant economic disruption and damage.

45 Gwent Human Disease West Nile Virus

42 H22 Human Health Influenza type disease (epidemic) A serious epidemic of much greater severity than the usual seasonal flu. Weekly GP consultations for new episodes of flu-like illness likely to exceed 400 per 100,000 population per week in an average year.

49 Gwent Plant Disease Major outbreak of a plant or pest disease

50 H28 Public Protest Large scale public protest Large scale public protests. Tens of thousands of highly motivated protesters, including a hard core of 2000 protesters, causing physical damage, requiring a nationally coordinated police response

51 H29 Public Protest Targeted disruptive protest, e.g. fuel protest Nationally co-ordinated protest that could generate shortages of essential supplies, and lasts for up to 1 week

- H42 Transport Accidents Rapid accident sinking of a passenger vessel in, or close to UK waters

Up to 500 fatalities and up to 1000 casualties

8.2 H52 International Events Influx of British Nationals from abroad following an outbreak of an infectious disease

Up to 200,000 British Nationals (BNs) returning to UK within a 4-6 week period following a serious outbreak of an infectious disease overseas.

89 HL43 International Events International security or pandemic health situation resulting in influx of British Nationals

Up to 10,000 British nationals deciding to return to the UK to a single region within 4-6 week period following serious regional conflict, a sustained terrorism campaign against the UK and other Western nationals, or an uncontrolled outbreak of pandemic flu.

69 Gwent Business Failure Blood supply disruption

70 Gwent International/national event Influx of UK residents into HGP area

71 Gwent Large Scale Fires Forest / Mountains Excluded – covered by risk ref. 1.27 (HL33)

72 Gwent Industrial Accident Mine Working

90 H50 Severe Weather Drought

Periodic water supplies interruptions affecting 385,000 businesses in London for up to 10 months. Emergency drought orders in place authorising rota cuts in supply according to needs of priority users as directed by SofS. The 2.24 million households in London would not be subjected to supply interruptions.

1.3 HL25 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Fire or explosion at a gas terminal as well as LPG, LNG, and other gas onshore feedstock pipeline and flammable gas storage sites

Up to 1km around site causing up to 50 fatalities and 150 casualties,

1.25 H15 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Maritime Pollution (Crude oil) Release of 100,000 tonnes of crude oil into the sea, polluting up to 200km of coastline.

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Date of Revision: September 2015 Risk Ref

Code.

UK Ref.

Risk Category Sub-Category Hazard and threat description including scale

9.1 H38 Industrial Technical Failure

Technical Failure of a critical upstream oil/gas facility gas import pipeline, terminal, or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import reception facility leading to a disruption in upstream oil and gas production

Catastrophic accident destroying all or parts of a critical upstream facility and, in the worst case, taking months or more to restore normal levels of service. This could potentially result In up to 11% loss of gas supply to UK which could impact on power generation if demand were high. As 40% of power is generated by gas fired stations then a reduction in generation might be felt. Downstream oil would not be so adversely affected given alternative means of supply.

L74 N/A Gwent Risks Flammable/explosive liquids into drainage systems

Temporarily removed from the Public Community Risk Register to enable further work & development of the Risk Outcome Descriptions

L75 N/A Gwent Risks Unexploded Bombs Temporarily removed from the Public Community Risk Register to enable further work & development of the Risk Outcome Descriptions

L76 N/A Gwent Risks Arson Temporarily removed from the Public Community Risk Register to enable further work & development of the Risk Outcome Descriptions

L77 N/A Gwent Risks Breach on the Monmouthshire &n Brecon Canal

Temporarily removed from the Public Community Risk Register to enable further work & development of the Risk Outcome Descriptions

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Appendix 1 Likelihood and Impact Scoring Scales

Likelihood / plausibility and impact are scored on a five point scale. Risks are plotted against both of these scales on a risk matrix to compare them relative to each other. The scales use broad categories to avoid a false sense of accuracy and reflect uncertainties. The relative positioning of risks on this matrix is used to prioritise risks into the following: Very High (Red) High (Amber) Medium (Yellow) Low (Green) This prioritisation helps ensure that resilience planning and capability building are focused and proportionate.

Likelihood Scoring Scale

Score Descriptor Stated chance in five years

1 Low Between 1 in 20000 and 1 in 2000

2 Medium-Low Between 1 in 2000 and 1 in 200

3 Medium Between 1 in 200 and 1 in 20

4 Medium-High 1 in 20 and 1 in 2

5 High 1 in 2 or more

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Impact scoring scale

The five dimensions of the impact assessment are described below and are measured on a scale of 1-5: • Economic impact; • Fatalities; • Causalities; • Social Disruption; and • Psychological impact. The scoring scales are designed to identify order of magnitude differences with the scale, duration and severity increasing as the scale increases.

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Based on the model likelihood and impact scoring scales published in “ Local Risk Management Guidance for Civil Emergencies - 2015”)

Gwent LRF Risk Priority Scoring Scale

(The GLRF considers the priorities below when formulating the 3 year multi-agency LRF work programme.)

The criteria are used to help prioritise the multi-agency work required where demand for treatment of the risk outstrips the resources currently available.

Risk Priority Action Timescale

Very High 5 Immediate Action (Yr1 work programme)*

Multi Agency Specific Planning Complete within 12 months or sooner. Re-evaluate risk priority on completion

High 4 Action asap after priority 5 risks have been addressed Multi Agency Generic Planning, as a minimum (perhaps the need for specific planning) Yr2 of work programme or sooner

Medium 3 Tolerate if additional resources (cost, time and effort) outweigh the risk reduction gains/improvements

Generic Planning Yr3 work programme Continually monitor for change

Low 2 Accept (where possible, incorporate elements into other generic work areas)

Regularly monitor for change

Very Low 1 No further action until next review Review when the Community Risk Register is reviewed

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Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

LIKELIHOOD

Appendix 2 Risk Rating Matrix (Updated 2014 LRMG Version)

Definitions of Risk Rating

Very high (VH) risk These are classed as primary or critical risks requiring immediate attention. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are such that they must be treated as a high priority. This may mean that strategies should be developed to reduce or eliminate the risks, but also that mitigation in the form of (multi-agency) planning, exercising and training for these hazards should be put in place and the risk monitored on a regular frequency. Consideration should be given to planning being specific to the risk rather than generic.

High (H) risk These risks are classed as significant. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are sufficiently serious to warrant appropriate consideration after those risks classed as ‘very high’. Consideration should be given to the development of strategies to reduce or eliminate the risks, but also that mitigation in the form of at least (multi-agency) generic planning, exercising and training should be put in place and monitored on a regular frequency.

Medium (M) risk These risks are less significant, but may cause upset and inconvenience in the short term. These risks should be monitored to ensure that they are being appropriately managed and consideration given to their being managed under generic emergency planning arrangements.

Low (L) risk These risk are both unlikely to occur and not significant in their impact. They should be managed using normal or generic planning arrangements and require minimal monitoring and control unless subsequent risk assessments show a subsequent change, prompting a move to another risk category.

Based on the revised risk matrix first published in Local Risk Management Guidance for Civil Emergencies April 2014

IMP

AC

T

Lim

ited

M

inor

M

ode

rate

S

ignific

ant

Cata

str

ophic

(1)

(

2)

(

3)

(4)

(5)

Key:

Very High

High

Medium

Low

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Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

LIKELIHOOD

IMP

AC

T

Lim

ited

Min

or

M

odera

te

S

ignific

an

t

C

ata

str

oph

ic

(1)

(

2)

(3

)

(

4)

(5)

Key:

Very High

High

Medium

Low

H23

H21 H21 H21 H21 H21 H21 H21

, HL10,

HL20,

H46, HL7, H14 H30,

HL4

H37 HL42,

H17 ,H54

H56, HL19, HL24, L73,

H62

H18, H48,

HL17

H23 H19

HL16, HL18,

H41,

H9, HL2, HL3, H24, H31, H45, H40,

H21, H55

H25, H59

HL43 H33, H11

HL33, H57

H4, HL28, HL14, HL22,

H39, HL21

H10, H44,

H16, H60, H61

H7, HL30, HL8, HL9, HL11, HL34, HL37, HL23,

L72

HL13, H58,

H35, H13

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Appendix 3 2015 NRR Threat Matrix

Ove

rall

rela

tive

im

pa

ct sco

re

5

Catastrophic Terrorist Attacks

4

3

Cyber Attacks:

Infrastructure

Terrorist Attacks on

infrastructure

Smaller scale CBR terrorist

attacks

Terrorist Attacks on crowded places

Terrorist Attacks on the

transport system

2

1

Cyber Attacks: data confidentiality

Low (1)

Medium low

(2)

Medium

(3)

Medium high

(4)

High (5)

Relative plausibility of occurring in the next 5 years

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For further information please contact:

Gwent Local Resilience Forum Co-ordinator

Force Planning Department

Gwent Police Headquarters

Croesyceiliog

Cwmbran

Torfaen

NP44 2XJ

LRF Co-ordinator

Tel: 01633 642549

Email: [email protected]

Torfaen Emergency Management Service:

Civic Centre

Pontypool

Torfaen

NP4 6YB

Bob Crimp,

Head of Corporate Risk & Emergency Management.

Tel: 01495 766071

Email: [email protected]