Harnessing ICT’s:Cutting-Edge Perspectives

Michael L. BestGeorgia Institute of Technology

mikeb@cc.gatech.eduwww.cc.gatech.edu/~mikeb

Frontiers of Knowledge in Science and Technology for Africa

Cape Town, South Africa

November 18, 2006

A Cautionary Tale: ICT4D Scholarship

1. Descriptive

2. Discourse of success stories

3. Self- reflection and self doubt

4. Synthetic

Time

1980’s 1990’s 2003 2006?

Cutting-Edge ICT4D: Synthetic and Integrated

Founded in theory Common concepts Grounded in empirical analysis Cumulative, comparative, and aware of lessons Contextualized Globally aware, locally engaged Cross-disciplinary Holistic across technologies, policies, business

models, and capacities

Roadmap to Some Cutting-Edge Technologies

Screens Power systems Terrestrial wireless Spectrum exemptions Micro-operators

Pro-poor case study: E-gov in India

Screens

OLED, photon vacuums Personal imaging Ultra-low power consuming, low- cost

Power systems

Non-polluting small biomass based gasifiers that utilize easily produced local plant material

Small diesel-substitute generators utilizing, for instance, seed oils

New solar technologies, for instance dye-sensitized solar cells, which have reduced efficiencies compared to current PV systems but which are much less expensive

Microfuel cells refueled through locally produced materials such as ethanol

Terrestrial wireless

WiFi, WiMAX, 3G, 2.5G…. An alpha-numeric soup!

Convergence of WLAN and 3G to single feature set: High bit-rates in an all-IP environment

including IPv6 support End-to-end QoS Multimedia support Mobility at automobile and train speeds Seamless session management Security, security, security Support for flexible and dynamic spectrum

and interference management (including software defined radios)

Advanced authentication, authorization, and accounting protocols

Spectrum Exemptions

WiFi hotspots, and other terrestrial wireless technologies, broadcast on 2.4 and 5 GHz under spectrum license exemptions in many countries.

2005 Survey of 75 Countries: 2/3rds require some licensing for 2.4 and 5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Unlicensed 29 16 27 13

Registration 16 20 11 14

Licensed 16 23 17 22

Forbidden 1 4

Private 2.4 GHz Public 2.4 GHz Private 5 GHz Public 5 GHz

Total

37%

27%

34%

2%

Unlicensed

Registration

Licensed

Forbidden

Public and 5 GHz more regulated thanPrivate and 2.4 GHz.

2.4 GHz Variation by Region and Economic Level of Development

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Lower Lower Middle Upper Middle Upper

Licensed

Registration

Unlicensed

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Africa Americas Asia Pacific Arab Region Europe

Licensed

Registration

Unlicensed

(χ2 = 12.6, p<0.05)

(χ2 = 20.78, p < 0.0078 )

Regulations and Internet Penetration Multivariate Analysis

TermExpanded

Beta Standardized Beta t p

Intercept 34.03 0.00 1.58 0.12

Forbidden -3.67 -0.10 -0.49 0.63

Licensed -4.17 -0.18 -1.27 0.21

Registration -2.10 -0.10 -0.59 0.56

Unlicensed 9.94 2.50 0.02

Log(Population) -6.28 -0.57 -4.07 <.0001

Log (GDP) 3.46 0.51 4.27 <.0001

Africa -8.52 -0.31 -1.74 0.09

Americas 1.42 0.05 0.30 0.76

Asia/Pacific 5.80 0.25 1.29 0.20

Arab Region -2.69 -0.10 -0.65 0.52

Europe 3.99 1.26 0.21

 

WHOLE MODEL  

Observations 67  

R2 0.55  

Adjusted R2 0.48  

F-Statistic 7.89  

p <.0001  

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Inte

rnet users p

er 1

00 A

ctu

al

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Internet users per 100 Predicted P<.0001

RSq=0.55 RMSE=12.449

Regulations and Internet Penetration Multivariate Analysis

TermExpanded

Beta Standardized Beta t p

Intercept 34.03 0.00 1.58 0.12

Forbidden -3.67 -0.10 -0.49 0.63

Licensed -4.17 -0.18 -1.27 0.21

Registration -2.10 -0.10 -0.59 0.56

Unlicensed 9.94 2.50 0.02

Log(Population) -6.28 -0.57 -4.07 <.0001

Log (GDP) 3.46 0.51 4.27 <.0001

Africa -8.52 -0.31 -1.74 0.09

Americas 1.42 0.05 0.30 0.76

Asia/Pacific 5.80 0.25 1.29 0.20

Arab Region -2.69 -0.10 -0.65 0.52

Europe 3.99 1.26 0.21

 

WHOLE MODEL  

Observations 67  

R2 0.55  

Adjusted R2 0.48  

F-Statistic 7.89  

p <.0001  

Countries that allow unlicensed use of 2.4 or 5 GHz bands have higher levels of Internet use even when we control for a country’s size, region, and level of economic development.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Inte

rnet users p

er 1

00 A

ctu

al

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Internet users per 100 Predicted P<.0001

RSq=0.55 RMSE=12.449

Micro-operators

Harnessing SMME’s in provision and not just use of ICTs.

Some Background: Indian Rural Telekiosks

DEC01

JAN02

FEB02

MAR02

APR02

MAY02

JUN02

JUL02

AUG02

SEP02

OCT02

NOV02

DEC02

JAN03

FEB03

MAR03

APR03

MAY03

JUN03

JUL03

AUG03

SEP03

S1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ave

rag

e h

ou

rs p

er c

on

nec

tio

n

Months

Overall Average Usage of Internet

I have been closely studying over last four years Internet use at 50 village information centers in rural Tamil Nadu, India

Most village centers ran by local small entrepreneurs

(Colin Maclay, Ashok Jhunjhunwala, Jayant Sinha, Joseph Thomas, Rajendra Kumar)

Some Background: Indian Rural Telekiosks

DEC01

JAN02

FEB02

MAR02

APR02

MAY02

JUN02

JUL02

AUG02

SEP02

OCT02

NOV02

DEC02

JAN03

FEB03

MAR03

APR03

MAY03

JUN03

JUL03

AUG03

SEP03

S1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ave

rag

e h

ou

rs p

er c

on

nec

tio

n

Months

Overall Average Usage of Internet

Who uses the net? Why and for what

purpose? Does the net

contribute to economic, social, or political development?

What technologies work and why?

What is sustainable?

(Colin Maclay, Ashok Jhunjhunwala, Jayant Sinha, Joseph Thomas, Rajendra Kumar)

Immediate Impacts: Tele-agriculture

Immediate Impacts: Sometimes Just for Fun!

E-gov Types of Services

49.0%

19.5%

10.1% 9.2% 7.0% 5.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

BirthCertif icates

Old AgePenion

CommunityCertif icates

IncomeCertif icates

DeathCertif icates

GeneralGrievances

Type of Application

% o

f T

ota

l

E-Government Services: Internet vs Non-Internet Villages

19.6

9.1

2.4 2.0 1.1 0.5

28.3

15.5

4.6 4.36.5

1.2

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

IncomeCertif icates

CommunityCert.

DeathCertif icates

Old AgePension

BirthCertif icates

GeneralGrievances

Service

No

. of

Ap

pl.

per

100

0 P

op

ula

tio

n

Non-Kiosk Villages w ith Popl. >=5,033 (8) Kiosk Villages (12)

Consumer Welfare Results

Government Service Cost and time estimate without e-government

Cost and time estimate with e-government

Savings in Cost and time with e-government

Birth Certificates Rs. 60 to 250, 3-7 days Rs. 35, 2-3 days Rs. 25 to 215, 1-4 days

Death Certificates Rs. 60 to 250, 3-7 days Rs. 35, 2-3 days Rs. 25 to 215, 1-4 days

Old Age Pensions Rs. 25, one day in visiting the Taluk office

Rs. 10, No visit required

Rs. 15, one day

Political Liberties Model: The Punch Line

. .

E-government services lead to an increase of 5 and 3 times the average number of applications received for birth certificates and old age pensions respectively, when compared to that when the village has no Internet kiosk, keeping other factors constant….

But project fails to achieve political sustainability and is shut down….

An Invitation to Georgia Tech

Defining the technological university of the 21st century….

Tech’s programs in engineering hold a position in the elite top five universities in the USA.

ICT4D projects in many parts of Africa: Liberia, Rwanda, Nigeria, Ethiopia…. with university-university collaborations in all these countries.

An Invitation to Georgia Tech

Editorial home of premier ICT4D journal: Information Technologies and International Development published by MIT Press

mitpress.mit.edu/ITID

First MIT Press open access journal

Harnessing ICT’s:A Cutting-Edge Perspective

Michael L. BestGeorgia Institute of Technology

mikeb@cc.gatech.eduwww.cc.gatech.edu/~mikeb

Frontiers of Knowledge in Science and Technology for Africa

Cape Town, South Africa

November 18, 2006