HART RESEARCH ASSOTESCIA Key findings from nationwide voter survey Conducted June 2012 for Winning The Tax Wars: A Three-Step Program For Fairness And

HARTRESEARCHA S S O T E SC I A

Key findings from nationwide voter survey Conducted June 2012

for

Winning The Tax Wars: A Three-Step Program For

Fairness And A Strong Economy

Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research

2

Survey Methodology

Survey among 1,200 U.S. registered voters

Interviews conducted online June 4 – 10, 2012

Overall margin of error = ±2.9 percentage points

Oversamples among white Catholic and white evangelical voters yielded total samples of 349 white Catholics and 326 white evangelicals.

The survey design was substantially informed by prior focus groups conducted by Lake Research Associates.


3

Surveying The Tax Battleground


4

Overview: The Tax Battleground

Public says that tax reform should be about fairness, not lower tax rates.

Public responds especially well to calls to end tax loopholes for large corporations.

However, the public does not believe more tax revenue is needed to meet our needs. The perceived link between taxes and job creation is particularly weak.

Reducing federal spending and reducing budget deficit are top priorities for the public.


5

23%

35%

41%

45%

57%

62%

% rating each as a very important goal* for reforming federal tax system

Public Says Tax Reform Should Be About Fairness, Not Lower Tax Rates

Make tax system more fair

Simplify tax system

Maintain tax deductions for families (child credit, college tuition deduction)

Keep taxes low

Reduce tax rates on small businesses

Reduce tax rates on all taxpayers

* 9 + 10 ratings on zero-to-10 scale, 10 = extremely important goal


6

27%

46%

60%

61%

64%

64%

65%

68%


Tax Reform Priorities: Defining Fairness

End tax breaks for corp. shipping jobs overseas

End tax loopholes that favor large corporations

Ensure same rules apply to everyone, no loopholes

Ensure large corporations pay their fair share of taxes

Ensure the rich pay their fair share of taxes

Get rid of tax breaks that favor the rich

End low tax rate on income from stocks and bonds

Tax stock/bond income as much as wage income



7

43%

46%

48%

51%

62%

64%


Tax Reform Priorities: The Expenditure Side

Reduce federal government spending

Reduce federal budget deficit

Ensure enough revenue for investments that strengthen

economy: education, research, transportation

Ensure enough revenue to fund priorities that middle-class families depend on,

like education and MedicareEnsure enough revenue to

fund the military and national defense

Ensure enough revenue for investments that create

jobs: education, research, transportation



8

5%

We should raise income taxes on the richest 2% of households

Which one of these statements comes closer to your point of view?

Strong Support For Taxing The Richest 2%

We should not raise income taxes on anyone at this time

Mixed feelings

Strongly agree 56% 63%

32%Strongly agree 29%


9

12%

The country needs more tax revenue to fund priorities like education, transportation, and Medicare

Which one of these statements comes closer to your point of view?

But Many Don’t Yet See Need For More Revenue

The country does not need more tax revenue, we only need to reduce wasteful government spending

Mixed feelings

Strongly agree 24% 31%

57%Strongly agree 48%


10

Pro-tax:Tax the rich/Need more tax revenue to fund priorities

Combined View: Taxing Rich/Need for Revenue

While Most People Are Either “Pro-Tax” Or “Anti-Tax,” One-Third Wants To Tax The Rich But Does Not See Need For Revenue

Anti-tax:Don’t raise taxes/Don’t

need more revenue, just cut spending

34%

35%

29%

“Tax & cut”:Tax the rich/Don’t need more

revenue, just cut spending


11

Combined View, Among Key Subgroups

All voters

DemocratsIndependentsRepublicans

LiberalsModeratesConservatives

MenWomen

WhitesAfrican AmericansHispanics

Age 18 to 39Age 40 to 59Age 60/over

White non-college graduatesWhite college graduates

Income under $50KIncome $50 to $100KIncome $100K/more

Pro-Tax

29%

49%27%7%

60%28%9%

28%29%

26%47%35%

33%26%28%

22%34%

30%25%34%

Tax and Cut

34%

41%36%26%

34%45%26%

30%39%

34%41%37%

38%34%30%

37%28%

35%38%33%

Anti-Tax

35%

8%34%65%

5%23%63%

40%29%

38/%10%25%

27%37%38%

39%37%

32%34%32%

Non-retiredincome


12

Public Wants Higher Corporate Tax Rates, End to Preferential Treatment Of Capital Gains By more than 4-to-1, the public says that tax rates on

corporations should by higher (60%) rather than lower (14%).

Fully 95% favor -- 74% strongly -- ensuring that all large corporations pay at least some income taxes.

69% favor (36% strongly) ending preferential treatment of income made by investors (stocks/bonds), so it is no longer taxed at a lower rate than income made by workers (wages/salaries).

While 46% say ending tax breaks that allow investors to pay lower rate than working people is a high priority for tax reform, just 27% prioritize taxing “income from wealth…at least as much as income from work.”


13

Winning The Tax Wars: A Three-Step Program

Step 1: Win the fight to end the Bush tax cuts for the richest 2%, by using a disciplined fairness message.

Step 2: Go on offense against conservative groups and officials, positioning them as defenders of a rigged tax system and making the Americans for Tax Reform pledge a political liability.

Step 3: In the longer term, expand public understanding of the need for revenue, especially the link between taxes and investments that strengthen America’s economy.


14

Step One: Winning The Fight To End The

Bush Tax Cuts For The Richest 2%


15

38%

54%

54%

By Any Name, The Public Is Ready To End High-End Bush Tax Cuts

71%

72%

% who favor* each tax/budget proposal being considered by Congress

* darker color = strongly favor

End Bush tax cuts/breaks for richest 2%

of households

End Bush tax cuts/breaks for top 2% of

households

Increase tax rates on household income

above $250,000

74%


16

Public Wants To End Bush Tax Cuts On Income Over $250,000

68%

32%

The Bush tax cuts . . . are due to expire at the end of this year, . . . tax rates will increase unless Congress takes action. Which is the better way to deal with the Bush tax cuts?

Continue the tax cuts for income under $250,000

but end them for income above $250,000

Continue the tax cuts for all income levels

Feel strongly 59%

Feel strongly 27%


17

Broad Support For Ending Bush Tax Cuts On Incomes Over $250,000

All voters

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

Men

Women

Income under $50K

Income $50 to $100K

Income $100K/more

Northeast

South

Midwest

West

68%

89%

69%

43%

63%

71%

68%

70%

70%

71%

65%

69%

68%


18

11%

18%

18%

32%

Which Is The Best Reason To End The Bush Tax Cuts For Richest 2%?

So that the wealthy pay their fair share of taxes

To protect priorities like Medicare and education

To get the federal budget deficit under

control

To make investments in roads, bridges, and schools to create jobs

Voters who want to end tax cuts over $250,000 only

45%

21%

16%

12%

All voters


19

(among voters who want to end tax cuts for income over $250K only)

Reasons To End Bush Tax Cuts For Richest 2%

The wealthiest people in our country have received the biggest tax breaks, and we just can’t afford to keep giving tax cuts to those who need it the least.

The wealthiest people in our country have received the biggest tax breaks, and now it’s time for them to pay their fair share.If we give more tax breaks to the top 2%, we won’t be able to afford to protect middle-class priorities like education and Medicare from deep cutbacks.If we give more tax breaks to the top 2%, we won’t be able to bring the federal budget deficit under control and we will have to keep borrowing billions from China every year.Ending tax breaks for the top 2% will allow us to create jobs by investing in areas like education, research, and transportation.

These tax cuts were always intended to be temporary, and we should let them expire now that the country’s needs have changed. This is a modest tax increase on the wealthy: a family making $300K would get to keep about $9,000 of their Bush tax cuts and lose only about $100.

Very convincing*

72%

69%

43%

41%

35%

31%

30%

* 6-7 ratings on seven-point scale, 7 = extremely convincing reason


20

Reasons To Keep Bush Tax Cuts For All Incomes

The national debt was caused by out-of-control government spending, not low taxes. We should reduce the deficit by cutting wasteful spending, not raising taxes on the American people.

Raising taxes on small businesses and job creators will hurt our economy and cost millions of Americans their jobs.

The politicians may claim they are only raising taxes on high-income families, but once they start increasing taxes you know they will raise taxes on the struggling middle class too–and we just can’t afford that.

Politicians raise taxes so they can keep growing the federal government. Until Washington starts respecting taxpayers’ dollars, we shouldn’t give them any more.

The top 1% of taxpayers already pay almost 40% of all income taxes, while nearly half of all people don’t pay any federal income taxes at all. We shouldn’t penalize those who have been successful.

Raising taxes only on those who have done well is class warfare, dividing America when we should be uniting the country.

Veryconvincing*

52%

37%

34%

33%

16%

12%

* 6-7 ratings on seven-point scale, 7 = extremely convincing reason

(among voters who want to end tax cuts for income over $250K only)


2128% 36%

27% 46%

12% 40%

21% 54%

14% 53%

10% 50%

Ending Bush Tax Cuts For Richest 2% Will Improve Tax Fairness, Deficit, And Education

Funding for education

Budget deficit

Fairness of the tax system

Strength of Medicare

The economy

Jobs

Impact of Ending Bush Tax Cuts for Income above $250K on Several Issues

Will have bad impact on this Will have good impact on this

+40

+39

+33

+28

+19

+8


22

34%

66%

32%

68%

After Extensive Debate, Support Holds Steady For Ending Bush Tax Cuts On Incomes Over $250,000

The Bush tax cuts . . . are due to expire at the end of this year, . . . personal income tax rates will increase unless Congress takes action. Which is the better way for Congress to deal with the Bush tax cuts?

Initial view

Final view

Continue tax cuts for income under $250K, end for over $250K

Continue tax cuts for all income levels


2311%

18%

22%

25%

33%

39%

42%

42%

68%

Public Priorities For New Revenue: Deficit Reduction, Medicare, Education, Infrastructure

Reducing budget deficit

Medicare

K – 12 public education

Health care

Infrastructure and transportation

National defense

College loans and tuition assistance

Job training

Scientific research

If Congress ends the Bush tax cuts for income above $250,0000, in which three of these areas should Congress use the additional tax revenue?


24

% who strongly agree* with each statement

Strong Language In Support Of Rich Paying Their Fair Share

To get our nation back on track we need everyone to do their part, and that includes the wealthy and large corporations.

With a $1-trillion deficit, the country simply can’t afford to keep giving out tax breaks to the wealthy and large corporations and still meet our pressing needs.

We don’t begrudge financial success in this country; we admire it. But when the rich get tax breaks they don’t need and the country can’t afford, somebody else has to make up the difference–and that’s not right.

Our tax code should reward hard work instead of giving special tax breaks to the privileged and comfortable who sit around collecting income on their wealth.

59%

53%

51%

47%

* 9-10 ratings on zero-to-10 scale, 10 = totally agree

We don’t begrudge successReward hard work, not privileged

Demo-crats63%64%

Inde-pendents

53%43%

Pro-taxvoters67%67%

Tax & cut65%56%


25

Summary: The Bush Tax Cuts for the Richest 2%

Call them “the Bush tax cuts for the richest 2%.”

Central message focus: having the rich pay their fair share of taxes.

Do not make this fight about jobs and the economy.

Acknowledge need to get deficit under control. Do not say that tax breaks, not spending, caused the deficit.

Key debate will not be whether to tax the rich, but defining the choice: A) end or extend cuts for the richest 2%?, or B) end or extend all tax cuts?

Who will be blamed if all tax cuts expire?


26

Step Two:Go On Offense Against The

Defenders Of An Unfair Tax System


27

We Have An Opportunity – For The First Time In 30 Years – To Take The Offensive On Taxes

The combination of strong public demand for tax fairness and conservatives’ anti-tax absolutism creates an opportunity to go on offense against leaders and groups that defend unpopular tax breaks for the rich and large corporations.

We can potentially discredit the Americans for Tax Reform pledge and make it a liability, transforming the debate on tax issues.

The tax issue can become a wedge issue that divides the conservative coalition.


28

Public Rejects Tax Pledge That Protects Corporate Loopholes And Tax Breaks For Rich

32%

About half the Members of Congress have signed a pledge promising that they will never vote for any tax increase. This pledge includes a promise that they will never vote to make the very wealthy and corporations pay a penny more in taxes, even by eliminating special tax breaks or loopholes. What is your view of those who signed this pledge never to raise taxes?

Favorable Unfavorable

68%

Veryunfavorable

43%

Very 9%

Unfavorable:

Democrats 89%Independents 73%Republicans 43%

Northeast 73%South 60%Midwest 76%West 72%

However, 60% have a favorable view of a pledge not to raise taxes if we don’t say it applies to tax breaks and loopholes.


29

Taxes Are Potential Wedge Issue For Republican Coalition

End Bush tax cuts for top 2%

Keep tax cuts for all incomes

Favorable on tax pledge

Unfavorable on tax pledge

Strong GOPs

33%

67%

66%

34%

Weak GOPs

51%

49%

46%

54%

Conser-vatives

36%

64%

61%

39%

Moderates/liberals

66%

34%

41%

59%

Men

38%

62%

65%

35%

Women

48%

52%

49%

51%

Republicans


30

% who say each raises very major doubts about Republicans in Congress

Going On Offense Raises Major Doubts About Republicans In Congress

Nearly every Republican in Congress has signed a pledge promising that they will never vote to make big corporations pay a penny more in taxes, even by closing loopholes that reward them for shipping American jobs overseas.Republicans in Congress voted for a tax plan that increases taxes on 18 million low-income working families, but cuts taxes by 30% for corporations and millionaires.Republicans in Congress passed a budget that ends the Medicare guarantee and requires seniors to pay $6,000 more per year for fewer benefits than they get now, while giving the richest Americans a $300,000 tax break.Republicans favor giving more tax breaks to the wealthiest Americans and large corporations while demanding cuts in programs that average families rely on, like Medicare, Medicaid, and college tuition assistance.Republicans are protecting huge tax breaks for the oil companies, even though these companies are gouging consumers and reporting record profit.Republicans favor keeping the policies that allow multimillionaire investors like Mitt Romney to pay a tax rate of just 14% – far below what many middle-class families pay.

48%

48%

47%

47%

47%

46%


31

28%

49%

Public More Concerned About GOP Protecting Wealthy/Corporations Than Cutting Investments

Which concerns you more about the approach of Republicans on tax and budget issues?

Cutting investment

Protectingtax breaks

for wealthy/corporations

Cutting middle-class investments like education, Medicare, and transportation

Protecting tax breaks and loopholes that mainly benefit the wealthy and big corporations


32

% who strongly agree* with each statement

Position Conservative Politicians As Defenders Of A Status Quo Rigged Against Middle Class

Too many politicians are willing to stack the deck in favor of their wealthy campaign contributors and corporate interests, while the middle class gets stuck with the tab.

We need to stop wasteful spending in Washington, and that includes getting rid of wasteful tax breaks for corporate CEOs and billionaire hedge fund managers.

Our current tax code is full of special deals for powerful interests, and it needs to be overhauled so everyone plays by the same rules.

Today our tax system is rigged in favor of the rich and big corporations who can afford to hire lobbyists and tax lawyers, unlike the rest of us.

61%

61%

59%

55%

* 9-10 ratings on zero-to-10 scale, 10 = totally agree


33

Message: Overhaul The Tax Code to Reflect Interests of the Middle Class, Not Rich & CEOs

61% of voters rate this as a very convincing reason (6-7 on seven-point scale) for increasing taxes on the wealthy and corporations.

Respondents’ highlighting of words and phrases that are especially convincing:

It's time we overhauled our tax code so that it's fair to the 99 percent of us who work hard and play by the rules, not just the one percent who lobby hard and rewrite the rules in their

favor. Our tax code needs to reflect the interests of the middle class, not the special interests of corporate CEOs and their lobbyists. The millionaire driving a red Ferrari shouldn't be paying a lower tax rate than the mechanic who's fixing the brakes. It’s not right that the rich and big

corporations get special breaks and loopholes the rest of us don't

get, and it's about time they started living by the same rules as the

rest of us.


34

Highlight Offshore Tax Shelters and Tax Breaks for Corporations That Ship Jobs Overseas



Our tax code should reflect our values so we should end tax breaks for companies that ship jobs over-seas. And we should end tax breaks for corporations

and wealthy individuals that use offshore tax shelters in places like the Cayman Islands to hide their profits

overseas and avoid paying the taxes they owe. As Americans who are loyal to our communities and our country, we pay our taxes because it’s an

investment in America and the next generation. Those who have succeeded should pay their fair share, because if you do well in America,

you ought to do well by America.


35

Summary: Taking The Offensive On Taxes

We can and should portray conservatives as defenders of a tax status quo that is rigged in favor of the rich and special interests.

Highlight loopholes that permit some corporations to pay no taxes, foreign tax havens, and tax breaks that send our jobs overseas.

We can discredit the Americans for Tax Reform pledge to keep all loopholes, making it an electoral liability and transforming the politics of the tax issue.

Link GOP defense of tax breaks for rich/corporations to their demands for cuts in Medicare, education, and infrastructure.

Highlight conservatives’ refusal to raise revenue, to undercut their claim to the mantle of fiscal responsibility and put them in opposition to opinion elites.

Put ending tax breaks for the rich and corporations at the center of the coming debate over tax reform.


36

Step Three:Expand Public Understanding

Of The Need For Revenue


37

Our Long-Term Challenge: Making The Link Between Taxes And A Strong Economy

Public is skeptical of the claim that taxes are “needed” to avoid cuts or create jobs.

Use criticisms of conservatives to help public begin connecting taxes to consequences for the middle class: the same leaders who oppose taxing the rich also want to cut Medicare, education, and other middle-class priorities.

Progress is more likely to be made in fights over federal spending (transportation, education) than in tax reform context. In these spending debates, we should link conservatives’ defense of tax breaks/loopholes to their anti-investment position.

Focus on strengthening America’s economy for the long-term (less emphasis on short-term job creation).


38

Support For Public Investment

23%

77%

Increase funding for investments in education, research, and transportation

Favor

Oppose

Strongly favor 40%

Cut funding for investments in education, research, and transportation

Favor

Oppose

17%

83%Strongly oppose 49%

75% of voters believe that spending more on transportation, education, and research will strengthen our economy and create jobs.


39

Stating The Case For Investments:Put Americans Back To Work

We’re facing high unemployment and stagnant wages, while corporations and the wealthy are sitting on trillions of dollars in cash and asking for still more tax breaks.

We should require them to pay their fair share of taxes, and use that money to create jobs and put people to work. We need to

support small businesses, invest in

education, jump start research and clean energy development, and improve infrastructure like schools, roads, and bridges. By putting Americans back to work, and putting money in the pockets of middle-class consumers, we will get our economy moving again and build a stronger future.




40

Strong Language In Support Of Revenue To Meet America’s Future Needs

Put Americans back to work

Invest in education

Support small business

Bring the deficit under control

Improve infrastructure (schools, roads, bridges)

Put money in pockets of middle-class consumers

Get our economy moving again

Invest in America's future

HARTRESEARCHA S S O T E SC I A

Key findings from nationwide voter survey Conducted June 2012

for

Winning The Tax Wars: A Three-Step Program For

Fairness And A Strong Economy

Documents

HART RESEARCH ASSOTESCIA Key findings from nationwide voter survey Conducted June 2012 for Winning The Tax Wars: A Three-Step Program For Fairness And