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Head, Aging Aircraft ProgramNaval Air Systems Command
Robert P. ErnstRobert P. Ernst
The Redesign DilemmaThe Redesign Dilemma
AgendaAgenda
Decision factors & options Decision factors & options for the program managerfor the program manager
Weapons for fighting the Weapons for fighting the impacts of Defense Darwinismimpacts of Defense Darwinism
Program Managers DilemmaProgram Managers Dilemma
• RedesignRedesign or or Life-of-TypeLife-of-Type Support Support
– What factors need to be considered?
– What option does the PM choose?
– At what point does the PM decide?
Time
Performance(# Sources for ICs)
ComponentSolutions
Box/SystemReplacement
Cost
Cost(Managed)“Trigger”
Point
Replacement Decision ‘Trigger’Replacement Decision ‘Trigger’
Decision FactorsDecision Factors
• Service Life
• Operational Requirements
• AVDLR or Maintenance Cost
• Hardware Availability
• Sustaining Support
• Available Options– Associated Risk– Cost of execution
Decision Factors:
--Service LifeService Life
• Hardware Wear out– Drift rate of components
• Handling, excessive rework, fatigue, time vs gain, offsets, etc
– Reversion of Materials• Adhesive or epoxy breakdown due to
time, temp, sunlight
Obsolescence
Functionality
Cost & Reliability
Decision Factors:
--Operational RequirementsOperational Requirements
Enough PartsEnough Parts
Good ($) PartsGood ($) Parts
Does the jobDoes the job??
• Need increased performance• Mission Change• Improperly defined Req’ts
• Need increased performance• Mission Change• Improperly defined Req’ts
• High Failure Rate– Electrical Stress– Thermal Stress– Mechanical Stress
• High Failure Rate– Electrical Stress– Thermal Stress– Mechanical Stress
Decision Factors:
Hardware AvailabilityHardware Availability
YouAre
Here
• Integrate supply & demand– Evaluate system-level spares– Excess microcircuit stock/die
• Integrate supply & demand– Evaluate system-level spares– Excess microcircuit stock/die
Decision Factors:
Hardware AvailabilityHardware Availability
• Integrate supply & demand– Evaluate system-level spares– Excess microcircuit stock/die
• Integrate supply & demand– Evaluate system-level spares– Excess microcircuit stock/die
Component Solution-------------System Replacement
Life-of-Type Buy
Aftermarket Manufacturer
Part Substitution
Full System Replacement
System Redesign/Box Replacement
Box Redesign/ Subsystem
Replacement
Emulation
Card Emulation
Available OptionsAvailable Options
Cost
Risk
HighLow
Boeing
McDonnell Douglas
Hughes Helicopter
Rockwell
General Dynamics
Lockheed
Martin Marietta
United Technologies
Grumman
Northrop
LTV
Fairchild
Kaman
Bell
1980 2001Boeing
Lockheed Martin
Northrop Grumman
Textron
(Sikorsky)
Finding the same part ...Finding the same part ...
Defense DarwinismDefense DarwinismImpactsImpacts
• Mergers, buy outs, die-offs result in:– Product Line Consolidation– Redefinition of sustained products– Division spin-offs– Changes to manufacturing techniques
Defense DarwinismDefense Darwinism
• Makes finding ‘listed part’ DIFFICULT!DIFFICULT!– Beware of Part Number Changes!– Discontinuation Notices are not final
• Industry thrives on cash• Sometimes it only takes a phone call
– Check for alternate suppliers• Requires comparison of parametrics• Usually requires testing
Get off the obsolescence Get off the obsolescence treadmill!treadmill!
Couple PartsParts Evaluation
with DesignDesign Evaluation
– Let’s incorporate reliable solutions– Appropriate use of parts with design applications
F/A-18C/D Waterfall
Incorporate Design TradeoffsIncorporate Design Tradeoffs
• Incorporation of industrial grade (-40C - 85C)
• Req’d startup of A/C cooling system prior to power on
• Incorporation of industrial grade (-40C - 85C)
• Req’d startup of A/C cooling system prior to power on
Do we really need Full Do we really need Full
MIL-TEMP range??MIL-TEMP range??
Resources:Resources:
Module/Subassembly Module/Subassembly ReplacementReplacement
• Many OTS subassemblies available that duplicate
performance -- BOLT-ON REPLACEMENT!
• Excellent candidates for power supplies/EMI filters
• AAIPT -- acceptable solution for 10% of
obsolescence solutions
Resources:Resources:
Minor board level redesign, Minor board level redesign, Mod of existing boardMod of existing board
• Alternate part part available in dif
pkg/pinout
• Alt part is functionally different, but SRA
requirements unchanged
• Board-level testing/Potential TPS changes
• Alternate part part available in dif
pkg/pinout
• Alt part is functionally different, but SRA
requirements unchanged
• Board-level testing/Potential TPS changes
Resources:Resources:
Board-Level RedesignBoard-Level Redesign
• Good OptionGood Option– Multiple obsolescence problem– Board wear-out– Functionality changes (mission)
• RiskRisk– All All interfaces properly defined
• Linear over operating temperatures
• Throughput
– Probable TPS/Software changes
Resources:Resources:
System-Level ReplacementSystem-Level ReplacementMultiple WRA RedesignMultiple WRA Redesign
• Requires:Requires:
– Systems-Level analysis
– Major Logistics impact
– Proper definitions
– Completely new obsolescence analysis (esp.
COTS)
– RISK
• Requires:Requires:
– Systems-Level analysis
– Major Logistics impact
– Proper definitions
– Completely new obsolescence analysis (esp.
COTS)
– RISK
DMEA/ARINC Case HistoryDMEA/ARINC Case History
Alternate available 2/3rds of the timeAlternate available 2/3rds of the time
NAVAIR Case HistoryNAVAIR Case History
RESOLUTION NAVAIR PM'sPROBABILITY OF OCCURANCE (%)
AAIPT Involvement
PROBABILITY OF
OCCURANCE Existing Stock 3 5.7% 3 5.7%Reclamation 0 0.0% 0 0.0%Alternate 22 41.5% 23 43.4%Substitution 0 0.0% 0 0.0%Lot Buy 11 20.8% 11 20.8%Aftermarket 9 17.0% 9 17.0%Emulation 1 1.9% 3 5.7%Redesign-Minor 5 9.4% 4 7.5%
• Avoidance to date -- Avoidance to date -- $19.6 Million$19.6 Million
• Savings to date -- Savings to date -- $4.5 Million$4.5 Million
• Avoidance to date -- Avoidance to date -- $19.6 Million$19.6 Million
• Savings to date -- Savings to date -- $4.5 Million$4.5 Million
APG-65 Radar ExampleAPG-65 Radar Example
5 WRA’s
553 microcircuits
40 obs. components
4 SRA’s impacted multiple times – expensive hybrid design
– $1-11K per device
5 WRA’s
553 microcircuits
40 obs. components
4 SRA’s impacted multiple times – expensive hybrid design
– $1-11K per device
A. Emulation @ SRA level
B. DMEA Flexible Foundry
C. Procure from Raytheon “Sister
Company”
A. Emulation @ SRA level
B. DMEA Flexible Foundry
C. Procure from Raytheon “Sister
Company”
OptionsOptions
Which is most cost
effective?
APG-65 OptionsAPG-65 Options
Multiple components
on several cards
High cost components
Uncertain supplier
Decision: Mixture of
card and
component
emulation
Multiple components
on several cards
High cost components
Uncertain supplier
Decision: Mixture of
card and
component
emulation
Options A B CRRT DMEA RSL
DMEA RRT DMEARSL
Component A B C3905248 Redesign Redesign Redesign3905236 Redesign Redesign Redesign934324-2B Redesign Redesign Redesign3905240 RSL DMEA DMEA3920019 RSL DMEA DMEA934245-501B DMEA DMEA DMEA932932-1B Tech Insert Tech Insert Tech Insert925221-1B Tech Insert Tech Insert Tech Insert3904889 RRT RRT RSL3904821 RRT RRT RSL3904825 RRT RRT RSL3904841 RRT RRT RSL3904997 RRT RRT RSL932670-501B RRT RRT Redesign
ConclusionsConclusions
1. Weapon service life uncertain
2. Evaluate options based on:a. Existing FY cost
b. 7-year window
c. Weapon LCC
ConclusionsConclusions
1. Weapon service life uncertain
2. Evaluate options based on:
a. Existing FY cost b. 7-year window c. Weapon LCC
3. Integrated weapon system
evaluations - can’t chase chips