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Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 North West LHIN June 11, 2013

Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

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Page 1: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 North West LHIN June 11, 2013

Page 2: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Housekeeping

• Phones on mute • Do not put the call on hold to answer another call • 3 ways to ask questions:

• Type questions in chat box • “Raise hand” to ask a question • Open question forum at end

• Online Survey • Presentation is available on our webpage for review

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Page 3: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Objectives

• Provide an overview of our purpose and the approach taken for the Health Human Resources study;

• Provide a summary of the environmental scan of current health human resource capacity in the North West LHIN by Integrated District Network; and

• Provide a summary of projected health human resources in the North West LHIN by Integrated District Network based on predicted retirement and changing demographics in our LHIN.

• Discuss the outcomes and expectations based on the results of the current study and to examine both future planning and opportunities at an IDN level.

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Page 4: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

THE PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY

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Page 5: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

North West LHIN Health Services Blueprint

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Page 6: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Rationale - Recommendation #44 of the Blueprint

Recommendation #44 of the Blueprint: • To properly forecast specific human

resources impacting healthcare demands

• Each forecast specific to each of the five IDNs in Northwestern Ontario

6

Page 7: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Approach to Study North West LHIN partnered with:

• North Superior Workforce planning Board • Northwest Training and Adjustment Board

Contributors: • Employment Ontario • Le Réseau Du Mieux-Être Francophone Du Nord

De L’Ontario . Purpose: • To provides projections of future demand for

healthcare workers due to: • Retirement , population size and age distribution.

• The study examines human resources needs of both the traditional and non-traditional healthcare sectors

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Page 8: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

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Alignment to Blueprint: Recommendation 9

• The integrated health system model will be comprised of five Integrated District Networks that will work across the entire North West LHIN: District of Kenora Integrated District Network • District of Rainy River Integrated District Network • District of Thunder Bay Integrated District Network • City of Thunder Bay Integrated District Network

Northern Integrated District Network

Page 9: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Methodology: Predicting Future Demand Future demands for health care workers:

1. Retirement replacement or load component • Estimated based on Statistics Canada, survey of employers & focus

groups 2. New hires based on Health care demands due to population

growth and Demographic changes • Population forecasts use regional-based information on fertility rates

as well as regional economic conditions • Demographic model based on the regional cohort component

methodology using demographic and economic components 3. Total demand projection

• Sum of the number of new entrants to offset the expected retirements and those needed to address the growing demand caused by changing size and age distribution of the population

Qualitative Data collection: A. Survey – large sample of health care providers provided patient

demographics, resources and turnover rate by IDN B. Focus Groups– gained employer’s perspective on labour force

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Page 10: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Methodology: Health Care System Cost Per Capita Provincial Health Expenditures by Age

10

Per Capita Health Expenditures: • Demand for healthcare resources is

positively correlated with age; age used as a proxy for demand by different age groups

• Periods of higher use are at birth and for populations aged 60+

• Size and age distribution of the population used to estimate an index that tracks changes in demand for healthcare

Canadian Institute for Health Information provides estimates of per capita provincial health expenditures by age in Ontario for 2010

Page 11: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Categorizations of Healthcare Workforce Traditional Occupations

• Occupations which provide health care services directly to patients or that provide support to professional and technical staff

• Falls under the National Occupational Classification as Health Occupations

• Most occupations in this category require post-secondary education in a related health care program

Non-Traditional Occupations • Assisting occupations in support of health services and

the provision of social and mental health services • Do not have a formal labour market designation of

Health Occupation in Canada • Large variance in educational requirements for this

workforce category

11

Examples of Traditional Occupations

• Nursing-Related Occupations • Assisting Occupations • Medical Technologies • Therapy Assessment Professionals • Physicians • Paramedics

Examples of Non-Traditional Occupations

• Psychologists • Social workers • Community and social services • Family, marriage and other related counselors • Recreation, sports and fitness program supervisors • Inspectors in public and environmental health and

occupational health and safety

The National Occupational Classification (NOC), provides a standardized language for describing the work performed by Canadians in the labour market.

Page 12: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Health Human Resources Study Deliverables

The study deliverables to include: • Environmental scan of current health human resource

capacity within the healthcare sector in the North West LHIN region

• Predicted retirements and vacancies over the next 5-10 years

• Assessment of future healthcare sector recruitment/retention needs

• Projections to assist employment service providers with planning, programming and informed service delivery

• Detailed population forecasts at the Local Health Hub level • Study available at http://www.nswpb.ca/ and

www.northwestlhin.on.ca

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Page 13: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

KEY FINDINGS: WORKFORCE AND POPULATION CHANGES

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Page 14: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Overarching Finding We’re Entering The “Perfect Storm”…

In the next ten years, the North West LHIN will experience:

1. An increased number of retirements due to the aging workforce

2. An aging population that will require more healthcare

3. A rise in population due to natural increases and a predicted upturn in the economy

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Page 15: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Current State: Challenges in the North West LHIN *

The North West LHIN has: • A population density of 0.4 persons per square

kilometer compared to 14.72 in Ontario • A population to healthcare worker ratio of 30.93

vs. 35.76 across the Province of Ontario, with high variability across IDNs, reflecting different approaches to service delivery

• Providers in continuous recruitment mode for Healthcare professionals due to workers migrating in and out of communities

• An aging population with escalating healthcare needs

• A forecasted increase in population by 2025 after years of outmigration

15 Figure 1.1 -Based on 2006 Census Data *Assumption – the limitation of the study is that data is based on the current workforce and demands on current healthcare needs. Framing- interpretation and expectations are moving towards a future of shared resources with integrated technology embedded

Page 16: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Current Labour Force Configuration of HHR in the North West LHIN

Current healthcare labour force in North West Ontario:

• 7,470 traditional healthcare workers • 3,565 non-traditional healthcare workers • 91.1% are employees • 8.9% are self-employed • 81.8% of traditional healthcare workers are

female; 75.8% of non-traditional healthcare workers are female

• 81.7% of traditional healthcare workers are of English origin, 6.3% are Aboriginal, and 2.8% are Francophone

• 58.2% of non-traditional healthcare workers are of English origin

16 Traditional healthcare defined as all the occupations within the structure and skill type of “Health” that start with the NOC number (3) Occupations such as Nursing-Related Occupations, Assisting Occupations, Medical Technologies, Therapy Assessment Professionals, Physicians and Paramedics. Non-traditional healthcare occupations are without NOC start (3) and defined to include social workers, community and social services, family, marriage and other related counselors, recreation, sports and fitness program supervisors, psychologists and inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety.

Page 17: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Population Forecasts Population Trends in Northwestern Ontario (2010-2025)

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24.0% 22.20%

24.20% 22.40%

10.40%

32.80%

27.75%

31.80% 30.54%

16.30%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Thunder BayCMA

Thunder BayDistrict

Rainy River Kenora Northern

Percentage of the Population 60 Years of Age and Over, 2010 and a 2025 Forecast

The population of the North West LHIN is expected to grow • Scenario I: Assuming zero net migration during the

forecasting period, predicted increase to 233,098 or a 0.7 % increase

• Scenario II: Assuming a conservative population growth resulting from economic growth, predicted increase of 5.19% from 231,475 in 2010 to 243,498 in 2025

• City of Thunder Bay IDN: 1.47% increase • District of Thunder Bay IDN: Remains constant • District of Rainy River IDN: 16.76 % increase • District of Kenora IDN: 7.14% increase • Northern IDN: 17.2% increase

Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period

Page 18: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Population Forecasts A significant proportion of the population aged 60+

18

24.0% 22.20%

24.20% 22.40%

10.40%

32.80%

27.75%

31.80% 30.54%

16.30%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Thunder BayCMA

Thunder BayDistrict

Rainy River Kenora Northern

Percentage of the Population 60 Years of Age and Over, 2010 Census and 2025 Projection

The population aged 60+ will continue to rise rapidly across the LHIN: • Under both scenarios the age composition of

population will change significantly during 2010-2025

• Under Scenario II the total population aged 60+ will increase from 22.3% to 30.8%, resulting in a third of Northwestern Ontario’s population aged 60+ in 2025

• City of Thunder Bay IDN will have the highest proportion of the population aged 60+ of all IDNs

• Northern IDN will have the lowest proportion of the population aged 60+ of all IDNs

Forecast of Percentage of the Population 60 years of age and over (2025) based on Scenario II Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period

Page 19: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Key Findings for Employment Needs

19

2414

1902

4050

4050

Scenario II: Projected Growth (6,464)

Scenario I: Zero Net Migration (5,952)

Total Demand for Healthcare professionals 2010 to 2025

Due to Projected Growth Component Due to Retirement Load

Assuming no changes in care delivery models or approach, the results of this study indicate by 2025 : • 5,952 new health care professionals will be

required under Scenario I • This represents 54% of the existing

workforce • 6,464 new health care professionals will be

required under Scenario II • This represents 59% of the existing

workforce • Many senior administrators and senior

clinicians are preparing to retire within the next 5 years, presenting the risks of knowledge and experience gaps

Based on 2006 Census Data

Page 20: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Key Findings Estimating Growth-Demand for Health Care Workers in Northwestern Ontario

Overall demand for health care workers in Northwestern Ontario is expected to increase by:

• 15.87% (Scenario I)

• 21.03% (Scenario II) Within the same period, the demand by the population aged 60+ is expected to increase by:

• 37.65% (Scenario I)

• 44.12% (Scenario II)

20 Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period

Page 21: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Overview of Demand for Healthcare Workers Expected future needs in Northwestern Ontario

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The top 5 Traditional Occupations 1. Registered nurses (1,517 to 1,634) 2. Nurse aides, orderlies & patient service

associates (684 to 743) 3. Registered practical nurses (326 to 349) 4. Occupations support of health services (167

to 189) 5. Paramedics (153 to 169) Top 3 Non-traditional Occupations: 1. Community and social service workers (975

to 1,065) 2. Social workers (441 to 477) 3. Family, marriage and other related

counselors (283 to 304)

Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period

Page 22: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

PROJECTED NEEDS BY IDN

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Page 23: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

City of Thunder Bay IDN

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Page 24: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

City of Thunder Bay IDN Retirement and Population Estimates

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Retirement Load Estimate: Traditional Occupations • 11% retirement rate (510 workers) 2010-2015 • 11.8% retirement rate (550 workers) 2015-2020 • 14.1 % retirement rate (655 workers) 2020-2025 Non-traditional Occupations • 7.8% retirement rate (125 workers) 2010-2015 • 10.6% retirement rate (170 workers) 2015-2020 • 18.94 % retirement rate (305 workers) 2020-2025 Population Distribution Estimate: 50 years and Over: • Percent of population increase from 40.3% to

45.1% form 2010-2025 55 years and Over: • Percent of population increase from 31.76%

to39.0% form 2010-2025 60 years and Over: • 1/3 of population in 2025

Forecast of Percentage of the Population 60 years of age and over (2025) based on Scenario I. Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period. Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period Traditional healthcare defined as all the occupations within the structure and skill type of “Health” that start with the NOC number (3) Occupations such as Nursing-Related Occupations, Assisting Occupations, Medical Technologies, Therapy Assessment Professionals, Physicians and Paramedics. Non-traditional healthcare occupations are without NOC start (3) and defined to include social workers, community and social services, family, marriage and other related counselors, recreation, sports and fitness program supervisors, psychologists and inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

Page 25: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

City of Thunder Bay IDN Forecasted Demand by Occupation

The top 10 Traditional Occupations: 1. Registered nurses (926 to 988) 2. Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates (420 to 451) 3. Registered practical nurses (208 to 222) 4. Occupations in support of health services (91 to 103) 5. Physiotherapists (93 to 99) 6. Pharmacists (77 to 81) 7. Specialist physicians (67 to 72) 8. Paramedics (58 to 62) 9. Medical Radiation Technologists (57 to 61). 10. Medical laboratory technologists & pathologists’ assistants (56 to 60) Top 3 Non-traditional Occupations: 1. Community and social service workers (388 to 421) 2. Social workers (208 to 224) 3. Family, marriage and other related counselors (77 to 82)

25 Traditional I and Non-Traditional I based on Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period Traditional II and Non-Traditional II based on Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period Traditional healthcare defined as all the occupations within the structure and skill type of “Health” that start with the NOC number (3) Occupations such as Nursing-Related Occupations, Assisting Occupations, Medical Technologies, Therapy Assessment Professionals, Physicians and Paramedics. Non-traditional healthcare occupations are without NOC start (3) and defined to include social workers, community and social services, family, marriage and other related counselors, recreation, sports and fitness program supervisors, psychologists and inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

Page 26: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

District of Thunder Bay IDN

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Page 27: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

District of Thunder Bay IDN Retirement and Population Estimates

27

Retirement Load Estimate: Traditional Occupations • 9.2% retirement rate (55 workers) 2010-2015 • 14.3% retirement rate (85 workers) 2015-2020 • 15.1% retirement rate (90 workers) 2020-2025 Non-traditional Occupations • 11.4% retirement rate (40 workers) 2010-2015 • 12.9% retirement rate (45 workers) 2015-2020 • 12.9 % retirement rate (45 workers) 2020-2025

Population Distribution Estimate: Population Growth: • Relatively unchanged form 2010-2025 55 years and Over: • Percent of population increase from 31.46% to

45.58% form 2010-2025 65 years and Over: • Percent of population increase from 14.41% to

27.73% form 2010-2025

Forecast of Percentage of the Population 60 years of age and over (2025) based on Scenario I. Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period. Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period Traditional healthcare defined as all the occupations within the structure and skill type of “Health” that start with the NOC number (3) Occupations such as Nursing-Related Occupations, Assisting Occupations, Medical Technologies, Therapy Assessment Professionals, Physicians and Paramedics. Non-traditional healthcare occupations are without NOC start (3) and defined to include social workers, community and social services, family, marriage and other related counselors, recreation, sports and fitness program supervisors, psychologists and inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

Page 28: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

District of Thunder Bay IDN Forecasted Demand by Occupation

The top 10 Traditional Occupations: 1. Registered nurses (147 to 150) 2. Paramedics (40 to 41) 3. Medical Radiation Technologists (36 to 37). 4. Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates (33 to 34) 5. Registered practical nurses (29) 6. Occupations in support of health services (23 to 24) 7. Chiropractors (16) 8. Medical laboratory technologists and pathologists’ assistants (16) 9. Dental technologists (13) 10. Dental assistants (13) Top 3 Non-traditional Occupations: 1. Community and social service workers (89 to 91) 2. Social workers (70 to 71) 3. Family, marriage and other related counselors (53 to 54)

28 Traditional I and Non-Traditional I based on Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period Traditional II and Non-Traditional II based on Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period Traditional healthcare defined as all the occupations within the structure and skill type of “Health” that start with the NOC number (3) Occupations such as Nursing-Related Occupations, Assisting Occupations, Medical Technologies, Therapy Assessment Professionals, Physicians and Paramedics. Non-traditional healthcare occupations are without NOC start (3) and defined to include social workers, community and social services, family, marriage and other related counselors, recreation, sports and fitness program supervisors, psychologists and inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

Page 29: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

District of Rainy River IDN

29

Page 30: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

District of Rainy River IDN Retirement and Population Estimates

30

Retirement Load Estimate: Traditional Occupations • 9.1% retirement rate (70 workers) 2010-2015 • 14.9% retirement rate (115 workers) 2015-2020 • 14.3 % retirement rate (110 workers) 2020-2025 Non-traditional Occupations • 9.5 % retirement rate (35 workers) 2010-2015 • 16.2% retirement rate (60 workers) 2015-2020 • 21.6 % retirement rate (80 workers) 2020-2025 Population Distribution Estimate: Population Growth: • Relatively unchanged during the forecasted period • Population is expected to increase by 3,600 due to

mining industry (scenario II) 50 years and Over: • 23% increase (35.3%-43.3%) 2005-2025 60 years and Over: • 1/3 of population in 2025

Forecast of Percentage of the Population 60 years of age and over (2025) based on Scenario I. Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period. Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period Traditional healthcare defined as all the occupations within the structure and skill type of “Health” that start with the NOC number (3) Occupations such as Nursing-Related Occupations, Assisting Occupations, Medical Technologies, Therapy Assessment Professionals, Physicians and Paramedics. Non-traditional healthcare occupations are without NOC start (3) and defined to include social workers, community and social services, family, marriage and other related counselors, recreation, sports and fitness program supervisors, psychologists and inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

Page 31: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

District of Rainy River IDN Forecasted Demand by Occupation

The top 10 Traditional Occupations: 1. Registered nurses (142 to 186) 2. Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates (55 to 84) 3. Registered practical nurses (40 to 51) 4. Paramedics (37 to 50) 5. Registered practical nurses (38 to 39) 6. Medical laboratory technologists & pathologists’ assistants (33 to 38) 7. Occupations in support of health services (19 to 27) 8. Specialist physicians (16 to 19) 9. Dentists (12 to 15) 10. General practitioners (2 to 5) Top 3 Non-traditional Occupations: 1. Community and social service workers (116 to 155) 2. Social workers (45 to 56) 3. Family, marriage and other related counselors (47 to 60)

31 Traditional I and Non-Traditional I based on Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period Traditional II and Non-Traditional II based on Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period Traditional healthcare defined as all the occupations within the structure and skill type of “Health” that start with the NOC number (3) Occupations such as Nursing-Related Occupations, Assisting Occupations, Medical Technologies, Therapy Assessment Professionals, Physicians and Paramedics. Non-traditional healthcare occupations are without NOC start (3) and defined to include social workers, community and social services, family, marriage and other related counselors, recreation, sports and fitness program supervisors, psychologists and inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

Page 32: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

District of Kenora IDN

32

Page 33: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

District of Kenora IDN Retirement and Population Estimates

33

Retirement Load Estimate: Traditional Occupations • 8.4% retirement rate (110 workers) 2010-2015 • 15.6% retirement rate (205workers) 2015-2020 • 9.1 % retirement rate (120workers) 2020-2025 Non-traditional Occupations • 8.3% retirement rate (60 workers) 2010-2015 • 11.0% retirement rate (80 workers) 2015-2020 • 16.5 % retirement rate (120 workers) 2020-2025 Population Distribution Estimate: Population Growth: • 4.5% increase in population 2010-2025 • High percentage of Aboriginal population • Younger overall population 65 years and Over: • 15.4 % - 23.1 % 2010-2025 • 50% increase

Forecast of Percentage of the Population 60 years of age and over (2025) based on Scenario I. Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period. Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period Traditional healthcare defined as all the occupations within the structure and skill type of “Health” that start with the NOC number (3) Occupations such as Nursing-Related Occupations, Assisting Occupations, Medical Technologies, Therapy Assessment Professionals, Physicians and Paramedics. Non-traditional healthcare occupations are without NOC start (3) and defined to include social workers, community and social services, family, marriage and other related counselors, recreation, sports and fitness program supervisors, psychologists and inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

Page 34: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

District of Kenora IDN Forecasted Demand by Occupation

The top 10 Traditional Occupations: 1. Registered nurses (210 to 219) 2. Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates (133 to 138) 3. Pharmacists (44 to 46) 4. Registered practical nurses (38 to 39) 5. Paramedics (34 to 36) 6. Occupations in support of health services (18 to 19) 7. Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment (18 to 19) 8. Dental hygienists and dental therapists (15 to 16) 9. Medical laboratory technologists and pathologists’ assistants (14) 10. Medical Radiation Technologists (13) Top 3 Non-traditional Occupations: 1. Community and social service workers (211 to 220) 2. Social workers (84 to 88) 3. Family, marriage and other related counsellors (80 to 82)

34

Traditional I and Non-Traditional I based on Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period Traditional II and Non-Traditional II based on Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period Traditional healthcare defined as all the occupations within the structure and skill type of “Health” that start with the NOC number (3) Occupations such as Nursing-Related Occupations, Assisting Occupations, Medical Technologies, Therapy Assessment Professionals, Physicians and Paramedics. Non-traditional healthcare occupations are without NOC start (3) and defined to include social workers, community and social services, family, marriage and other related counselors, recreation, sports and fitness program supervisors, psychologists and inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

Page 35: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Northern IDN

35

Page 36: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Northern IDN Retirement and Population Estimates

36

Retirement Load Estimate: Traditional Occupations • 7.8% retirement rate (30 workers) 2010-2015 • 13.0% retirement rate (50 workers) 2015-2020 • 15.6 % retirement rate (60 workers) 2020-2025 Non-traditional Occupations • 5.8% retirement rate (30workers) 2010-2015 • 15.4% retirement rate (80 workers) 2015-2020 • 8.7 % retirement rate (45 workers) 2020-2025

Population Distribution Estimate: Growth Rate: • Population growth from 20,770 to 23,551

2010-2025 • Majority of population Aboriginal • Younger population 65 years and Over: • 6.1 % - 10.9 % 2005-2025

Forecast of Percentage of the Population 60 years of age and over (2025) based on Scenario I. Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period. Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period Traditional healthcare defined as all the occupations within the structure and skill type of “Health” that start with the NOC number (3) Occupations such as Nursing-Related Occupations, Assisting Occupations, Medical Technologies, Therapy Assessment Professionals, Physicians and Paramedics. Non-traditional healthcare occupations are without NOC start (3) and defined to include social workers, community and social services, family, marriage and other related counselors, recreation, sports and fitness program supervisors, psychologists and inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

Page 37: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Northern IDN Forecasted Demand by Occupation

The top 10 Traditional Occupations: 1. Registered nurses (80 to 84) 2. Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates (52 to 55) 3. Occupations in support of health services (22 to 24) 4. Registered practical nurses (21 to 23) 5. Paramedics (21 to 23) 6. Medical laboratory technologists & pathologists’ assistants (16 to 17) 7. Medical sonographers (16 to 17) 8. Pharmacists (13 to 14) 9. Specialists ( 3 to 4) 10. Medical laboratory technicians (3 to 4) Top 3 Non-traditional Occupations: 1. Community and social service workers (226 to 242) 2. Family, marriage and other related counselors (60 to 63) 3. Social workers (22 to 25)

37 Traditional I and Non-Traditional I based on Scenario I: assumes zero net migration for forecasting period Traditional II and Non-Traditional II based on Scenario II: assumes a conservative economic population growth for forecasting period Traditional healthcare defined as all the occupations within the structure and skill type of “Health” that start with the NOC number (3) Occupations such as Nursing-Related Occupations, Assisting Occupations, Medical Technologies, Therapy Assessment Professionals, Physicians and Paramedics. Non-traditional healthcare occupations are without NOC start (3) and defined to include social workers, community and social services, family, marriage and other related counselors, recreation, sports and fitness program supervisors, psychologists and inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

Page 38: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Summary of Pressures on Labour Force Projected to increase over next 10 years

Pressures on the labour force in healthcare: • Current vacancies are hard to fill in many facilities and

locations • Small, rural communities that are not as desirable to new

graduates • Unequal pay and benefits between hospital and non-

hospital settings • Retirement of leadership without adequate succession

solutions • Day-to-day pressures taking precedence over future

planning • Limited recruitment resources • Physicians reducing their capacity in efforts to achieve a

better balance between work and life • Varying ability to provide French Language Services

38

Aging Population that Needs

more Service

Increasing Retirement

Rate

Rising Population

Current Vacancies

Small Rural communities are less Desirable

Unequal Pay and Benefits

Increase in Leadership Retirement

Time Pressures

Limited Resources

Demand for Work/Life balance

Varying FLS

Services

Page 39: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Opportunities from Focus Groups Focus Group participants identified a need to maintain

current efforts, including HFO and incentive programs in addition to emerging opportunities: • Educational opportunities

• Quality, leadership • Mental health, psychogeriatric

• Recruitment Centre: Shared recruitment at the Hub, District or Regional level • Integrated recruitment effort (web-based

recruitment, career fairs) • Administrative efficiencies • Shared applicant pool/casual staff • Sharing of FTEs • Sharing of benefit packages

• Integrated approach to HHR Planning and service delivery

• Support Immigration • Change the delivery model

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Page 40: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Where do we go from here? Review of findings The HHR Study points to the need for:

• Innovative strategies to meet HHR needs for the future • Technology enabled services • Self management • Ongoing collaboration and potential

integration • HHR Strategies at the district and regional

levels in order to fully support the delivery of services at the local, district and regional levels

• More integrated approach to planning across providers to effectively address the needs across the system

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Page 41: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Questions

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Page 42: Health Human Resources · Health Human Resources: Forecasting Needs in Northwestern Ontario 2013:2025 . North West LHIN . June 11, 2013

Thank You

• Thank you for your participation today! We look forward to working together • Ongoing BLUEPRINT questions can be posed to: [email protected] • Evaluation will be sent out to you to complete online

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